"They basically are 2 countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the fuck they're doing."

JUST IN 🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱: US PRESIDENT TRUMP DOES REALLY HARD AT ISRAEL. 🥶 #Iran #Israel #Trump pic.twitter.com/P77w3PqNLM

— RAJAT (@IRajatJain) June 24, 2025

"One statement from the ministry urges people to be wary of strangers wearing masks or goggles, driving pickup trucks and carrying large bags or filming around military, industrial, or residential areas."

"Elsewhere, a poster published by the state-affiliated Nour News – which is close to Iran’s security apparatus – singled out for suspicion people who wear 'masks, hats, and sunglasses, even at night' and those who receive 'frequent package deliveries by courier.' The poster asks people to report 'unusual sounds from inside the house, such as screaming, the sound of metal equipment, continuous banging' and 'houses with curtains drawn even during the day.'..."

From "Iran’s Mossad paranoia grows, amid fears of Israeli spies wearing 'masks, hats and sunglasses'" (CNN).

"We urge that the resolution of the Iranian crisis leads to a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza."

 That's the official statement, quoted in "Trump leaves G-7 meeting early to deal with Mideast; signs group statement/Trump signed the G-7’s statement backing Israel and criticizing Iran after discussions with other leaders and changes to the initial draft, a U.S. official said" (WaPo).

There's something off about that sentence, and I don't think it's just that "leads" should be "lead." (Subjunctive, right?) I think "urge" seems wrong. 

Who is being urged? Isn't the right word "hope"? We hope that the resolution of the Iranian crisis leads to a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East.... But to hope in this situation is too passive, and yet, what is going on here except passivity?

And what disturbs me most is that it seems as though they want to urge that there be a "de-escalation," but they are not urging the belligerents to de-escalate now. There's a precondition, "the resolution of the Iranian crisis." So it seems that they are urging that the crisis be resolved, and then hoping that when — if? — that happens, hostilities will de-escalate. That makes the most sense, but it says nothing about what the "resolution" is. The Iran crisis could be resolved through a complete military victory for Israel.

Finally, what is a "broader de-escalation of hostilities"? Hostilities have been escalating. The de-escalation has yet to begin. It's nonsense to speak of something that doesn't exist getting broader. And escalation and de-escalation are metaphors of height, not breadth. Pick one. "Broader de-escalation" also absurdly asks simultaneously for more and for less: We want wider shortness.

This sentence feels as though it began with many different words that have been swapped out for awkward substitutions. We're told Trump wouldn't sign the original draft. I'll bet that was better written, but the edited version we see won Trump's signature. Perhaps he wanted it to say nothing specifically discernible (other than "including a ceasefire in Gaza"). And perhaps he wanted to endorse military victory for Israel — AKA "the resolution of the Iranian crisis" — and didn't want or need to say it outright. He did get the others to sign onto that. 

“Where is our air defense?”/“How can Israel come and attack anything it wants, kill our top commanders, and we are incapable of stopping it?”

Said Iranian officials in "private text messages shared with The New York Times," quoted in "A Miscalculation by Iran Led to Israeli Strikes’ Extensive Toll, Officials Say/Interviews with half a dozen senior Iranian officials show that they were not expecting Israel to strike before another round of talks" (NYT).

Hamid Hosseini, a member of the country’s Chamber of Commerce’s energy committee, said, in an telephone interview: “Israel’s attack completely caught the leadership by surprise, especially the killing of the top military figures and nuclear scientists. It also exposed our lack of proper air defense and their ability to bombard our critical sites and military bases with no resistance.” 

From the article: "Iran’s senior leaders... never expected Israel to strike before another round of talks that had been scheduled for this coming Sunday in Oman, officials close to Iran’s leadership said on Friday. They dismissed reports that an attack was imminent as Israeli propaganda meant to pressure Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program in those talks. Perhaps because of that complacency, precautions that had been planned were ignored, the officials said."

Why would they concede "complacency"? Perhaps because they didn't really have "precautions" that, if taken, would have helped significantly. Still, I would have expected them to denounce Israel for treachery, especially given the promise of peace talks. 

"Israel launched a stunning series of strikes Friday morning on Iranian nuclear sites and killed several of the nation’s security chiefs, in a remarkable coup of intelligence and military force..."

"... that decapitated Tehran’s chain of command. President Trump warned that further attacks would be 'even more brutal' and redoubled pressure on Iran to reach a new deal to curb its nuclear program.... The attacks also killed top Iranian officials and nuclear scientists and hit Tehran’s long-range missile facilities and aerial defenses."

The NYT reports.

Trump at Truth Social: "I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to 'just do it,' but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn’t get it done. I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or were told, that the United States makes the best and most lethal military equipment anywhere in the World, BY FAR, and that Israel has a lot of it, with much more to come - And they know how to use it. Certain Iranian hardliner’s spoke bravely, but they didn’t know what was about to happen. They are all DEAD now, and it will only get worse! There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end. Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian Empire. No more death, no more destruction, JUST DO IT, BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE. God Bless You All!"

"But many Iranians love their pooches. Speaking of her ShihTzu terrier, Teddy, Asal Bahrierad, a Tehran resident, said... 'No one, not even the police, can take him away from me.'"

"She also said then that the ban was not being taken all that seriously. 'The police are actually very friendly to us,' she said of her daily walks with Teddy. Some even view walking a dog in public as a quiet rebellion against the Iranian government, which has long tried to enforce an Islamic lifestyle and restrict citizens’ civil liberties...."

From "'Dog Walking Is a Clear Crime': Iran’s Latest Morality Push/The government regards pet dogs as a sign of Western cultural influence. They are also considered impure, in Islam. Now there is a crackdown" (NYT).

Meanwhile, according to the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's fatwa, "Prayer is invalid with the presence of dog hair." We're told "A dog’s saliva or hair would render anything it touched — like a person, clothing or a surface — impure."

If you have a dog, you've always got at least one dog hair on you, I would think. All your prayers are invalidated. If things as puny as one dog hair invalidate a prayer, it's hard to imagine any prayers getting through. 

"A jailed Iranian musician who encouraged women to remove their hijabs has been flogged 74 times...."

"Mehdi Yarrahi’s sentence has now been completed after he was imprisoned in 2023... He had been detained days after he released the song Roosarito, which means 'Your Headscarf' in Farsi...."

From "Iranian musician flogged 74 times for hijab protest song/Mehdi Yarrahi was jailed and lashed for encouraging women to remove their veils, as the Islamic regime cracks down on artists and intellectuals" (London Times).

You can listen to "Roosarito," here, on YouTube.

Here's a word-for-word translation. Excerpt:

The cloudy sky feels blue facing you

Untie your hair, so that they drown in its waves
Pull back the curtain so that the sky feels delighted
You are the sun, so it is impossible that the night falls

No wonder the government is terrified. 

"600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and could go on forever."

"Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success. Likewise, Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness. They have ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers, and many more civilians. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin. Too many lives are being so needlessly wasted, too many families destroyed, and if it keeps going, it can turn into something much bigger, and far worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting!"

Writes Trump on Truth Social.

The NY Post writes about that statement in "Trump calls on 'weakened' Russia to enact ceasefire in Ukraine after Kremlin ally Assad is toppled in Syria." Excerpt: "Trump, who has at times expressed a fascination with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, remarked about how feeble Moscow appeared in Syria after the shocking and swift fall of Bashar al-Assad, whom Russia backed with troops, aircraft and navy ships."

"Three men have been indicted in alleged Iranian plot to kill President-elect Donald Trump while he campaigned for a second term in office..."

"... according to a criminal complaint filed in the Southern District of New York."

WaPo reports.

There's nothing to the report other than that 2 of the 3 men are in custody, but there is a comments section, with idiocy I won't quote but you can easily guess.

"Although Vice President Kamala Harris recently acknowledged that Iran is a 'destabilizing, dangerous force in the Middle East'..."

"... the Biden-Harris administration’s dealings with the regime in Tehran have been marked by inadequate military action, ineffective diplomacy and inconsistent sanctions enforcement, enabling Iran to continue funding terrorism, attack U.S. interests and threaten Israel’s survival. In contrast, the Trump administration’s 'maximum pressure' policy showed that well-enforced sanctions could cripple Iran’s economy and significantly weaken its malign activities — without harming American consumers or triggering a spike in global oil prices. The next president should restore that policy...."

Write Jeb Bush and Claire Jungman in The Washington Post — "Why we should return to ‘maximum pressure’ against Iran/The Trump administration policy showed that well-enforced sanctions could cripple Iran’s economy."

"Although Harris acknowledges the Iranian threat, her reluctance to back a stronger stance is puzzling. If Iran is truly the United States’ greatest adversary, avoiding a comprehensive strategy that could neutralize the threat is illogical — particularly when Iran’s proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, are weakened, and Israel, our key ally, is fighting for survival."

"Iran fired a large barrage of missiles at Israel on Tuesday evening, an attack that could set off a sharp escalation in the long-simmering conflict...."

"Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps said in a statement that the missile attack had been in retaliation for the assassinations of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, Hamas’s political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, and an Iranian commander. The statement said Iran would launch more missiles if Iran were attacked.... Loud booming explosions were heard above Tel Aviv, and flashes of light from the arcing intercepting rockets of Israel’s air defense system were visible. The salvo of missiles from Iran came a day after Israeli forces began a rare ground invasion of southern Lebanon aimed at crippling the Iranian-backed militia Hezbollah there.... A senior White House official said the United States would help defend Israel and warned that a direct attack against Israel 'will carry severe consequences for Iran.'... President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris... reviewed plans to help Israel defend against the attacks and protect Americans in the region."

The NYT reports.

"September 27th is the most important day in the Middle East since the Abraham Accords breakthrough."

"I have spent countless hours studying Hezbollah and there is not an expert on earth who thought that what Israel has done to decapitate and degrade them was possible. This is significant because Iran is now fully exposed. The reason why their nuclear facilities have not been destroyed, despite weak air defense systems, is because Hezbollah has been a loaded gun pointed at Israel. Iran spent the last forty years building this capability as its deterrent...."

Writes Jared Kushner, on X.

"Hezbollah on Saturday confirmed the death of Hassan Nasrallah, its longtime leader, in an airstrike on the organization’s underground headquarters near Beirut, hours after Israel said he had been killed."

The NYT reports, just now.

The death of Mr. Nasrallah is a major escalation in Israel’s rapidly expanding campaign against the Iran-backed group.... Beirut was gripped on Saturday by a feeling that the capital was no longer safe after months of Hezbollah clashes across the country’s remote border with Israel. Thousands of people from outside Beirut spent the night sleeping on the streets and beaches of the capital....

"Big threats on my life by Iran. The entire U.S. Military is watching and waiting. Moves were already made by Iran that didn’t work out..."

"... but they will try again. Not a good situation for anyone. I am surrounded by more men, guns, and weapons than I have ever seen before. Thank you to Congress for unanimously approving far more money to Secret Service - Zero 'NO' Votes, strictly bipartisan. Nice to see Republicans and Democrats get together on something. An attack on a former President is a Death Wish for the attacker!"

Writes Donald Trump, at X.

Here's some background at Axios:

"Iran's parliament is set to pass a bill regulating how men dress in public..."

"... banning apparel that 'is against public modesty, such as clothing that does not cover a part of the body lower than the chest or higher than the ankle." But the Basij, the nation's morality police, is already enforcing the law. They have been beating and arresting men caught wearing shorts in public, at a time when temperatures reaching 45° Celsius (113° Fahrenheit) and frequent power outages have led many men to wear shorts outside."

Reason reports.

Did Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi die in a helicopter crash?

I'm seeing reports like this, from AP: "A helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi suffered a 'hard landing' on Sunday, Iranian state media reported, without elaborating. Some began urging the public to pray for Raisi and the others on board as rescue crews sped through a misty, rural forest where his helicopter was believed to be."

At Al Jazeera: "Adverse weather conditions, including heavy fog, are hampering rescue efforts and the helicopter is still missing." And: "The conservative politician was a 'heavyweight' in Iranian politics, according to Mahjoob Zweiri, a professor at Qatar University." Was.

And there's this in The Jerusalem Post: "Social media goes rampant with rumors of Iranian President’s helicopter going missing/While apologists of the regime expressed hope for Raisi’s well-being, others implied that the regime itself was behind an assassination attempt, and many others expressed joy at the unconfirmed news."

UPDATE: "Search and rescue teams scoured an area of mountains and dense forest through rain and fog for hours before finding the crash site. There were no survivors" (NYT).

They chant it before they know what it means. Then someone asks what it means. And they chant it again when they know what it means.

Anti-war activists in Chicago learn to chant “Death to Israel” and “Death to America” in Farsi.

Read more from The FP’s @Olivia_Reingold: https://t.co/1jMM5ydhpp pic.twitter.com/z7T9AKNrF9

— The Free Press (@TheFP) April 14, 2024

The linked Free Press article is "American Anti-War Activists Cheer for Iran’s War/At a left-wing conference in Chicago, activists believe Iran is 'part of the arc of resistance because the enemies are Israel and the USA.'"

"The Biden administration, hoping to avoid a wider war in the Middle East, is advising Israel that it does not necessarily need to fire back at Iran..."

"... U.S. officials said. They said that its successful defense proved Israel’s ability to protect itself along with its American allies. As people gathered in Tehran to celebrate, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said that the attack was a direct response to the April 1 strike, and that 'the matter can be deemed concluded.' But it said that if Israel struck back, 'Iran’s response will be considerably more severe.'..."

The NYT reports.

So, the only response to an attack should be the defense against the attack. Where is the deterrent? Just in the humiliation of showing that, so far, the attacking has failed? The message would seem to be: Attack all you want, but your attacks will be ineffective. Is that a desirable stasis?

"Mr. Biden did not specify what the U.S. response would be. Some Republican lawmakers have urged him to attack Iran directly..."

"... although Mr. Biden emphasized again on Tuesday that he was determined to avoid a broader regional conflict, telling reporters: 'I don’t think we need a wider war in the Middle East.' In an apparent sign that Iran was trying to tamp down tensions, Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of the most powerful regional militias linked to Iran, and the one the Pentagon says was most likely responsible for the deadly attack in Jordan, made the surprising announcement on Tuesday that it was suspending military operations in Iraq, where it operates...."

From "Iran is ‘not looking for war,’ the head of the Revolutionary Guards says" (NYT).

"The United States believes Iranian-backed militants were behind the drone strike, and Biden is ramping up a reelection campaign against a leading Republican opponent who boasts of his toughness against Iran, making any option politically perilous as well as militarily fraught."

A deeply disturbing statement.

Please note the word "believes."

I'm reading "Biden faces treacherous political choices in answering deadly attack/Republicans demand that Biden attack Iran. Some warn that risks a wider Middle East conflagration" (WaPo).

Now would be a good time for Biden to deliver a speech modeled on LBJ's 1968 withdrawal speech:

... I have concluded that I should not permit the Presidency to become involved in the partisan divisions that are developing in this political year. With America’s sons in the fields far away... I do not believe that I should devote an hour or a day of my time to any personal partisan causes or to any duties other than the awesome duties of this office–the Presidency of your country. Accordingly, I shall not seek, and I will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your President.