"... U.S. officials said. They said that its successful defense proved Israel’s ability to protect itself along with its American allies. As people gathered in Tehran to celebrate, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said that the attack was a direct response to the April 1 strike, and that 'the matter can be deemed concluded.' But it said that if Israel struck back, 'Iran’s response will be considerably more severe.'..."
The NYT reports.
So, the only response to an attack should be the defense against the attack. Where is the deterrent? Just in the humiliation of showing that, so far, the attacking has failed? The message would seem to be: Attack all you want, but your attacks will be ineffective. Is that a desirable stasis?
Posts
137 comments:
The message would seem to be: Attack all you want, but your attacks will be ineffective. Is that a desirable stasis?
I’ll o out on a limb here and say “no.”
Biden advises Iran et al to up their game.
You know, the Biden administration gave the Iranians all that money — our money! — and then it turns out they have no leverage over Iran anyway. Meanwhile they have gone out of their way to malign Netanyahu so now they have no leverage with Israel, either. Wasn’t Inauguration Day 2021 supposed to mean the grown-ups were in charge of foreign policy? These clowns down at Foggy Bottom and in the White House have got to go!
The Biden administration ... is advising Israel that it does not necessarily need to fire back at Iran
I agree with that advice. Wait for the situation to develop gradually.
Tit for tat is how escalation makes shit go pear-shaped. We live in interesting times.
We learned in the martial arts that just blocking punches and kicks would not work... sooner or later a kick or punch will land... offensive attacks are the ONLY way to keep from being hit.
Israel has no choice but to sink a few Iranian ships or destroy some of Iran's airforce as an answer to their attacks.
To not do so will invite more Iranian attacks till one day Israel will lose some people as an attack hits home.
Truly Biden is asking for war... cause other nations will see this as a sign they can attack Israel and there is no consequence..
Hamas already knows what happens when they attack... but Iran will see there is no downside.
Is that a desirable stasis?
No. It is "kick can down road" position, just like Biden on the deficit. Guarantees bigger problem down the road.
So, the only response to an attack should be the defense against the attack. Where is the deterrent?
Hang the deterrence, woman! We've got poll numbers to worry about! - Biden Administration Official responds Althouse.
LeMay?
LeMay??
LeMay???
Iran did just enough to declare it gave tat for Israel's prior tit, while doing just not enough that Israel can claim it was never meaningfully threatened.
Ie, both Iran and Israel appear to be acting in a way that deescalates while still giving some red meat for domestic consumption, and this is a good thing.
Both Israel and Iran do not want a regional war. Whatever else you say about either state, that's an objectively good thing that they agree on.
I am only surprised that the US has not sued for peace. Could Iran have predicted that the Israeli air defense would be able to shoot down 99% of the missiles and drones? Iran expected that the attack would cause mass destruction and casualties in Israel. The fact that did not happen does not give Iran a free pass. The US cannot say no harm, no foul and expect Israel to not respond to the attack. Iran must be made to pay for their direct act of aggression against Israel.
It would be useful to compare the costs of the offense and defense. Offhand, I'd guess that $100 of defensive weapons were fired for every $1 of Iranian drones and missiles. That is not sustainable.
Will Biden now at least restore the economic sanctions on Iran? If not, why not?
If Iran wants to live in a 7th Century tribal society guided by a death cult, I say, go ahead, let them enjoy it fully. I'd suggest destroying the Iranian refineries producing fuel for internal Iranian consumption. Then the terminal for oil shipment at Kharg Island. Then target leadership and mullahs, if they're not strung up from lamp posts by their subjects within a few months.
THis happened before. Iran has retaliated by hitting US bases when Israel bombed Iran or assassinated Iranian scientists or officers. However, they've told the USA before hand so the USA could clear the area.
Iran doesn't want to escalate. So they do tit for tat. You have to wonder why Iran doesn't play by Israeli rules and start assassinating Zionists or Israeli military in 3rd countries. Or terror bombing Israeli embassys (sic).
Anyway, nobody but Morons thinks Iran is the aggressor in this. Israel seems to think they can murder Iranians anywhere anytime they want. Its really none of our business, and if Biden keeps us out out it, good for him. We don't need some bloodthirsty moron like Miss Lindsey in charge getting USA troops killed.
Biden should be awarded the Nobel Pieces Prize in a nod to Obama's work in his ethnic Springs... 100 billion in disputed funds and loose billions. That said, murder, rape, and torture in the pursuit of social justice are no ethical vice.
Retaliation should be measured, but only in the "keep your powder dry" sense.
Striking Iranian navel assets responsible for interfering with open shipping lanes, outside of striking Iranian territory, makes sense.
It can be viewed as defending broader international interests, rather than a bi-lateral escalation.
Hope is not a strategy.
Today Iran is less dangerous, and more isolated than they were yesterday.
Israel may...or may not strike loudly at Iran with this one. But...they will strike. My guess? They make a strategic strike to point out something very obvious. Iran could not touch Israel with a massive array of drones and missiles. Israel can and will select a key target or multiple targets and make a clean hit, taking out either personnel, or key weaponry or production sites, and depart without destroying cities.
IF Iran persists, they will face something massive. The Mullahs can either do no more and stay in power, or do more and be removed. I doubt Joe Biden will be able to deter Israel if this ratchets up anymore.
"Is that a desirable stasis?"
For the electoral purposes of the FJB admin, yes.
Remind me what provoked the sliw motion attack....
I made some wagers last evening that China will go after Taiwan before the November elections. With all the s**t going on in the Middle East, coupled with the fecklessness of Biden's administration, why not do it now? No better time IMO.
Netanyahu has seen how listening to Team Biden has worked out for Zelenskyy.
Israel will do what's necessary for its survival and dare the US to cut off its funding.
Biden can yap a good game, but he is not in control.
What other nation would be held to this standard?
I’m sure the Persians would respect and admire the Israeli restraint.
What would America do if another country fired 311 missiles and suicides drones at targets inside our country? Be glad the defenses worked and turn the others cheek? 2% of the attacks hit targets. Iran needs to know this never happen again. Everything short of nukes should he on the table.
"Don't underestimate Joe's ability to fuck things up." - Some guy
It seems that the basic problem is that we have an Affirmative Action problem when it comes to Islamic terrorists. It would be one thing if we tried to understand and react to them using a culturally-sensitive lens. However, all we do is use the same standards as we use for everybody else and then dumb them down. That id like Harvard adding 300 points to black applicants' SAT scores. Think of W's reaction to 9/11: "Islam is a religion of peace" that was hijacked by the terrorists who wanted to kill as many Americans as possible. The Palestinians have also benefitted from this approach. We celebrate MLK Jr. and Nelson Mandela's nonviolence, but the Palestinians can murder Olympic athletes, blow up pizza parlors, hijack planes, and militarize rape and somehow gain more and more sympathy from large swaths of the West. Iran also benefits from our double-standard. Evil is evil, and it is time for us to start acting accordingly.
"The Biden administration, hoping to avoid a wider war in the Middle East, is advising Israel that it does not necessarily need to fire back at Iran..."
I would be hard pressed to come up with a better Howitzer Howard definition of a "war" between The New Soviet Democraticals and their islamic supremacist allies in Tehran.
It becomes a real "slugfest" (wink wink) whereby Iran knocks over a few dishes while promising not to cut back on oil production until after the election and Howitzer Howard's Heroes just keep pumping billions more into Iran's coffers...
...all the while Dementia Boy's obama-aligned handlers continue their long, long, long Color Revolution against Netanyahu.
The New Soviet Democraticals can almost taste the creation of a brand new islamic supremacist terrorist state aligned with Iran in the Middle East!
Recall during the obambi administration that it became official US policy to elevate Iran to regional power hegemon and to smack Israel down.
Obambi wanted every nation in the Middle East to bow down to the mullahs.
Why you may ask?
A combination of stupidity and hatred. Like everything else the democraticals-LLR-democraticals/neo-cons offer.
Biden says "Don't" and the Iranians just go ahead. The Iranians say "Don't" and Biden tells Israel not to respond. Why doesn't Biden just say explicitly that the U.S. is afraid of Iran? That's the message the Iranians (and others) are getting anyhow.
Heartless Aztec - Yes sir.
Iran is openly conducting proxy war against Israel. Which is why their direct attack was coordinated with attacks by Houthi and Hezbollah (note: Hamas curiously unable to join coordinated attack).
And yet Irans attack was retaliation?
The whole framing here is stupid. Israel is being attacked. This was not new. This was just removing the pretense.
The problem with the Biden administration is that it is ruled by people who gave up their lunch money on the playground everyday. They are still doing it.
In 2022 as Putin amassed troops on the Ukrainian border Biden told Putin "Don't, don't, Don't".
In 2024 Biden told the Iranians, "Don't, Don't, Don't".
Glad we have adults in charge.
This is Israel’s opening to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability. Remember, Iran has sworn to destroy Israel.
McCain speaks from the grave,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7s5pT3Rris
This regime and whoever is using Biden as a puppet is doing everything they can to start a world war.
You cannot support this and even pretend to be a decent human being.
Perhaps Israel could drop flyers over the more crowded areas of some Iranian cities. The leaflets could feature pictures of ruined streets in Gaza. The leaflet could go onto explain that sometimes tit is far more massive than tat.....I guess such a lesson is also applicable to Israel. My uninformed opinion is that they're mostly just making the rubble bounce in Gaza. Perhaps it would be prudent to ease up....At present there is no calculus by which the 10/6 Hamas operation can be called a success for the Palestinian people. It was rather a catastrophe for them. I think at some level the Palestinian people must understand this. The only way the 10/6 atrocity could be deemed a success is if it should cause a rupture in the US/Israeli alliance. This could happen. Biden has about the same level of commitment to Israel as he does towards Afghani feminists.
If Biden were Reagan, he would remove all our forces from the theater and sell missiles to Iran.
Hope is not a method.
Richard at 1005 beats me to it: "No harm, no foul" is not the rule to apply here.
I agree with Richard above; this attack cannot stand unanswered. Several dozen smart bombs dropped on Iran’s parliament, the Islamic Consultative Assembly, and a cruise missile attack on the Ayatollah’s offices at the Presidential Administration complex and his home at Sa'dabad Palace should send the right message and move a few of the right people to room temperature. Let Iran respond after that with another ineffective and incompetent drone attack and we should be good.
Under the Biden administration Attempted Murder is a No Bail offense.
Just butt the fuck out, USA. Stop this having it both ways nonsense!
The House of Israel (of which the Jews are but one branch of 12) is under specific commandment to leave these things to the Lord who promised to fight their battles, and particularly in the end days when He is gathering them back from their dispersion. Isaiah couldn’t be more clear.
There are two ways to look at this, depending on whether you think Biden is actually making decisions or if Obama is making decisions.
If Biden is making decisions in those lucid periods between dementia spells, he's a perfect idiot at foreign policy. Your understanding of Biden's position should be that it is the confident declaration of an utter incompetent who is too arrogant and too lacking in self-awareness to ever learn anything. If it sounds like a stupid idea, it is because it is.
If Obama is making decisions, Obama seems to think that the fanatical, anti-American, terrorist-backing mullahs of Iran are the key to American interests in the Middle East, despite being the worst actors in the entire Middle East, so of course he supports Iran. Right now he is desperately coming up with some scheme to ship them more pallets of cash as a reward.
It's a mistake to view this as a matter of winning or losing the news cycle. The frame of analysis should have a time horizon of 10 years. It has to consider the potential alliances among state and nonstate enemies, and the likelihood that Iran will have atomic weapons and advanced drone weapons.
Israel needs non US allies with the capability to occupy a defeated Iran. It has to be Sunni nations like Turkey or Saudi Arabia. Sounds impossible, but I see no better alternative.
The attack was ineffective. Israel has gained some international support. Restraint is not a bad move - for now. Netanyahu can blame Biden whose motives are never pure.
There is no deterrent possible. Islamists are vicious, sadistic lunatics who intend worldwide jihad.
Joe Biden is the Jim Cramer of foreign and defense policy - he has a consistent record of being wrong on every major call for over 50 years. From the F-15E program, to both Gulf Wars to the Bin Laden raid, he's been wrong on EVERYTHING.
Now, that doesn't mean Israel should hit back blindly today. They can take a few beats, and figure out the best way to hit back, hopefully in an unexpected way that keeps the Iranians guessing.
But putting out this kind of statement - Biden and Blinken are just so bad at their jobs that if I didn't know that both are just fundamentally grossly stupid, I would have to assume that they are in the pay of America's enemies.
An attack on Iran is the only proper response. Taking out all the ships and bases of Iran's navy would be my response.
It appears that the Iranian attack was a mass terror attack - no thought seems to have gone into targeting.
The correct response is for Israel to respond based on the strength of the attack and what the reaction would have been had all projectiles hit their mark. Israel’s air defense is premised on defending Israel from attack, not protecting Tehran from retribution for the attack.
It's all about their obsession with resurrecting the damned nuclear deal. They won't give Ukraine the weapons and equipment it needs to defeat Russia, because Russia is an ally of Iran. They want Israel to sit there and take these attacks, because it doesn't want the Iranian leaders humiliated.
"Where is the deterrent?"
Same place it would be by backing off and letting that mouthy student trespass and disturb your peace with impunity.
Go after the Iranian oil fields Israel!! Take out their cracking plants and refineries.. not all of 'em but enough to crimp their style.
THAT is the response that is needed.
"Israel said its military forces and its allies had intercepted 99 percent of the missiles, but some ballistic missiles penetrated Israeli defences and hit the Nevatim Airbase in southern Israel.
"If we're talking about ballistic missiles that need to be brought down with an Arrow system, cruise missiles that need to be brought down with other missiles, and UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles], which we actually bring down mainly with fighter jets," he said.
"Then add up the costs - $3.5m for an Arrow missile, $1m for a David's Sling, such and such costs for jets. An order of magnitude of 4-5bn shekels.""
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/israels-defense-against-iran-attack-overnight-likely-cost-over-1-billion
Not cheap - I wonder how many such "victories" Israel can afford.
And props to Russia and China for funding and aiding the Iranian drone industry.
Uh oh. The jig may be up for Howitzer Howard's gaslighting on Iran. Better start thumbing thru new gaslighting options Howie because this doesn't look good...for Team New soviet Democratical.
Jerusalem Post reports:
"Iran informed Turkey in advance of its planned operation against Israel, a Turkish diplomatic source told Reuters on Sunday, adding that the US conveyed to Iran via Ankara that its operation must be "within certain limits."'
https://twitter.com/Jerusalem_Post/status/1779512742350635038?t=FD8_jyolF8hWtYswSaPIrw&s=19
This would mean obamas biden handlers literally gave Iran the green light for this attack!
What a perfectly perfect Howitzer Howard-like thing to do!
So, to recap for Howard's sake, the Iranian attack was a massive political win for Iran and will no doubt be a massive financial windfall win for Iran in short order.
Heckuva job Howie! Maybe you should take some time off from the blog for a bit and use the time to "train like a professional athlete"...(wink wink)
Alexander:
Both Israel and Iran do not want a regional war. Whatever else you say about either state, that's an objectively good thing that they agree on.
I don't recall Israel suggesting that all Iranians be exterminated.
Why hasn't Biden gotten the US hostages back?
Why aren't 'journalists' asking Biden about freeing up billions of dollars for Iran to use in these attacks?
I knew many Iranians in college during the revolution there.
One on one they are really great people...they are not Arabs, hence they are very smart.
Iranian women should not be wearing burkas as they are very attractive fwiw...
Israel cannot afford to play strictly defense. It is MUCH cheaper to fire off drones than to defend against them.
So, the Biden residency provided the funding, for BOTH Sides in this war; but NOW want it to stop?
Maybe they just shouldn't have provided Iran with the hundreds of BILLIONS?
retail lawyer said...
No. It is "kick can down road" position, just like Biden on the deficit
to be fair, the Biden residency realizes that one way or another;
IF they can just keep things afloat until mid January of 2025..
it will either Not be THEIR problem; or the world will have MUCH bigger problems to worry about
Remember three US servicemen have been killed by the Houtis (and two more in accidents in the area). Sorry, three moms, jour boys were under our trip wire for strong retaliation.
This also smacks of the "just the tip" freebee Biden offered Putin in the Ukraine for a minor incursion.
Don't means, pretty please, apparently.
Feckless seems appropriate.
what ever happened to that other war we were in? you know? the one with russia?
did we lose that one already? Must have, from the lack of press coverage
Here's a thought experiment: If Iran fired ballistic missiles at the Great Satan, which were successfully defended against by America's ballistic defense systems, would that tat for tit be sufficient, or would we need to create a teaching moment by striking offensively at Iranian interests (but not necessarily a land invasion of Iran proper)? Or should America allow the situation to develop "gradually" and see where it takes us?
While I don't consider myself a warmonger, my previous military service suggests to me that measured and immediate offensive action is the only way to persuade a bully like Iran to cease and desist, at least for a while. FJB should stop worrying about Muslim votes in Michigan and be a real leader for once.
Is that a desirable stasis?
Well yes. You have to remember that for a democrat, they only care about getting more political power and the next election. This plays perfectly with the Islamic, Jew hating, genocidal promoting “americans” in Michigan.
Always think of the politics when dealing with democrats.
I have been opposed to continuing support of Ukraine in a hopeless cause. I have been supportive of Israel feeling that they had every right to respond to the October 7 attacks in any way they wished. My feelings about the Iranian air raid are that we should use it as a reason to make any number of punitive strikes on Iran. Not only would it answer my Marine Corps response of "hit them twice as hard", but strategically it is the opportunity to seriously weaken Iran's military forces without the rest of the world getting their panties in a wad.
Deterrence doesn’t seem to be a major administration objective judging by Russian, Chinese and Iranian actions since Biden took office.
Israeli strike in Syria kills 7, including 3 Iranian Commanders.
Iranian strike in Israel kills 0, with one child wounded.
Israel for the win.
If Israel counters, it could very well lead to a broad mid-eastern war involving multiple nations, including the US, given that we are inextricably tied to Israel, (and they seem to be the dog and we the tail). I hope Israel doesn't retaliate. Anything that might avoid initiating a world war is worth trying. I'm not sanguine about it, though.
Biden is an excellent adviser to Israel. They should listen to him, nod politely, and instantly do the entire opposite of what he recommends.
That, my friends, is a way to a winning strategy.
Biden, the architect of Halfassinstan.
My paternal grandfather (1885-1977) was a US Army Colonel [Intel] and eventually our CIA Station Chief in Buenos Aires after WWII, into the '50s. He put it very well ... "Peace is not the absence of conflict. It is the absence of THREAT."
My paternal grandfather (1885-1977) was a US Army Colonel [Intel] and eventually our CIA Station Chief in Buenos Aires after WWII, into the '50s. He put it very well ... "Peace is not the absence of conflict. It is the absence of THREAT."
Premature withdrawal from Iraq, then funding Iran. Disastrous evacuation from Afghanistan, then funding Iran. A political dynasty.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu unchained.
So, Iran gets to decide the terms. They throw their firecrackers into Israel’s yard, declare the outcome to their satisfaction (yeah couch the impotence) and warn of something even more incompetent should Israel respond. Wait a week or six Israel. Then send them some May flowers.
Most people are just Zionists morons or low information voters. They really think everything in the Middle east or Ukraine just happened yesterday. There was NO conflict before Putin's invasion. And there was no Israeli attack on Iran before Iran's retaliation. Or Israeli attacks on Palestinians before Oct 7th.
So we get weird way of thinking whereby all of israel's agressive actions and war crimes don't exist, and the idea that poor little Israel was just attacked out of nowhere FOR NO REASON AT ALL. Which isn't the truth. Same with Ukraine. Poor little Ukraine wasn't invaded for NO REASON AT ALL, it was invaded because there had been a low-level war going on in the Donbas since 2014.
All the usual zionists warmongers. Miss Lindsey, Mike Pence, Dan Crenshaw, Tom Cotton, etc. are now screaming for a massive attack on Iran. And waving their Israeli flags and shouting "We stand by Israel - no matter what they do". I wish I could bottle the stupidity and sell it. However, as shown by his withdrawl from Afghanistan, Biden is NOT as stupid as he looks, and seems to have no inclination to attack Iran.
Whether Israel does, will be part of a calculated strategy on their part. They want war with Iran, so the USA will be dragged in. However, Iran doesn't want war with the USA. So, its a fine line being walked. Personally, I think Israel's actions will be muted for now. They can't count on Biden supporting them in EVERYTHING, just most things.
RCOCEAN II (10:16am):
"Iran doesn't want to escalate. So they do tit for tat. You have to wonder why Iran doesn't play by Israeli rules and start assassinating Zionists or Israeli military in 3rd countries. Or terror bombing Israeli embassys (sic).
Anyway, nobody but Morons thinks Iran is the aggressor in this."
RCOCEAN II thinks Iran might "start . . . bombing Israeli embassys"?! Apparently he doesn't know that Iranian agents blew up the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires in 1992, killing 29 and wounding 242. (Two years later, they blew up a Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires, killing 85 and wounding 300.)
Of course, he also thinks Israel has killed 33,000 civilians and zero combatants in Gaza, though even Hamas has now reduced their claim to 22,000, and at least 15,000 of those were in fact (illegal war-criminal non-uniformed) combatants actively trying to kill Israelis.
RCOCEAN II (as if one rcocean weren't more than sufficient) really shouldn't go around calling other people "Morons", with or without a capital letter.
Howard, Cook et al,
You voted for this. This is a result of your petulent disregard for your own peace and prosperity. Only because you could not emotionally handle Trump.
The world did not have to be this way, but this is the way you wanted it.
You owe the rest of us an apology. At least.
"My fellow Americans, we live in an age of anarchy, both abroad and at home. We see mindless attacks on all the great institutions which have been created by free civilizations in the last 500 years. Even here in the United States, great universities are being systematically destroyed. Small nations all over the world find themselves under attack from within and from without.
If, when the chips are down, the world’s most powerful nation, the United States of America, acts like a pitiful, helpless giant, the forces of totalitarianism and anarchy will threaten free nations and free institutions throughout the world.
It is not our power but our will and character that is being tested tonight. The question all Americans must ask and answer tonight is this: Does the richest and strongest nation in the history of the world have the character to meet a direct challenge by a group which rejects every effort to win a just peace, ignores our warning, tramples on solemn agreements, violates the neutrality of an unarmed people, and uses our prisoners as hostages?"
President Nixon Speech on Cambodia; April 30, 1970.
Somewhat strange behavior from Iran. They have always attacked Israel through proxies, not directly and from their own soil. Much less cautious and calculated than they have tended to be in the past. I wonder why.
There are some encouraging signs in this situation. Jordan clearly allied itself to Israel and the US by shooting down many of the incoming projectiles. Saudi Arabia also shot down a Houthi missile fired at Israel last week. Will a new middle east emerge out of all this? That would be nice.
But "Never underestimate Joe Biden's ability to fuck things up" as somebody in a position to know once said.
So, the only response to an attack should be the defense against the attack.
In this particular case, shouldn't we understand Iran's strike as specific retaliation for Israel attacking the Iranian embassy in Syria first? That kind of violation of core diplomatic norms can escalate into wider war (see, e.g., the Mongol conquest of most of the civilised world), but it doesn't have to. Iran escalated by attacking civilian targets, so Israel could reasonably choose to escalate further. But from a US perspective, we really don't want a cycle of continuing escalation here. And unless Israel thinks it is facing an imminent existential threat from Iran proper right now, I really think they ought to refrain from escalating until they've crushed Hamas and secured their flank.
"I'm not sanguine about it, though."
Robert Cook remains true to form, greasy thumb on the scales weighing in favor of the neo-Nazis.
Best try on that black Totenkopf peaked cap once more, Robert. This time you might get Anthony Blinken's authorization to wear it in public.
Khe Sanh aka Minnesota Farmer concludes:
My feelings about the Iranian air raid are that we should use it as a reason to make any number of punitive strikes on Iran. Not only would it answer my Marine Corps response of "hit them twice as hard", but strategically it is the opportunity to seriously weaken Iran's military forces without the rest of the world getting their panties in a wad.
You're proposing a US strike on a Muslim country on behalf of Israel and think it wouldn't cause a diplomatic, economic and strategic problem in the region?
That's exactly what the Mad Mullahs, Putin and Trump want.
If what you propose we're to happen, it would likely cause an immediate petroleum shortage and send the world into a deep recession at best.
In addition, it would turn every Muslim country against the US and would likely cause an ongoing open hot war with Israel.
We missed our opportunity to strike Iran in 1983. The impotent Iranian attack was to save face for the Israeli strike at their embassy without causing damage. No harm, no foul.
This muddle headed thinking is a mind virus planted by foreign powers. Pitiful.
yes in deed the bombings of the embassies in buenos aires, and in london, as well the cultural center in that same south America capital,
"The message would seem to be: Attack all you want, but your attacks will be ineffective. Is that a desirable stasis?"
From the mullahs' perspective, not at all. No totalitarian junta can survive by projecting an image of puffed-up incompetence in the crucial death-dealing modality. Therefore Ali Khamenei will attack using the proxies that Biden has been busy importing by the hundreds of thousands across what used to be our southern border. Look for a bombing or mass shooting at a packed synagog, probably on Shavuot, in a Red state where peace and good order often prevail. That will get attention. Murdering 200 Jews in New York won't even make Page 7 in the Times. The mullahs understand full well that Jews aren't protected by our national government, except the Black transgendered ones.
ZH article says : Israel's Defense Against Iran Attack Overnight 'Likely Cost Over $1 Billion'
Iran most likely spent less than 10 million?
discuss =
I also read US UK and Jordan also spent resources.
Creola Soul said...
"This is Israel’s opening to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability. Remember, Iran has sworn to destroy Israel."
I agree. If not now, then when?
Anything that might avoid initiating a world war is worth trying. I'm not sanguine about it, though.
Cook is one of the Gandhi disciples. Gandhi advised England to surrender to the Nazis.
They would be "morally superior."
Q like his fellow coward Drago are praying for disaster because they think it's the only way to justify their treasonous allegiance to Trump over the US and Western Civilization.
My son who works in missile defense opines that Iran which just got its ambassador in Damascus rubbed out by Israel is like a kid on the playground who just got bitch slapped by another kid in front of all his friends. He has to react to save face but is not so stupid as to bring on real retaliation, so fires some ineffective shots at Israel knowing they would not cause serious retribution. So if Israel keeps it cool it will all be over.
ZH article says : Israel's Defense Against Iran Attack Overnight 'Likely Cost Over $1 Billion'
Iran most likely spent less than 10 million?
discuss =
I also read US UK and Jordan also spent resources.
Q: who is David and who Goliath on $metric
Gandhi advised England to surrender to the Nazis.
===========
Gandhi also advised Jews to surrender to the Nazis.
There has never been a clearer demonstration, across such a wide range of subjects, of the difference between a competent administration and an incompetent administration.
“Biden tells Iran not to launch an attack. They do it anyways with unprecedented firepower. Biden responds by demanding Israel not retaliate and leaks it to the press as a signal to certain voters.
If that’s not a perfect encapsulation of this admin’s FP, I don’t know what is.”
—- AG Hamilton
POTATUS has begun his short trip to hospice, or so it is hoped.
For once, the Biden administration is right.
The Israeli bombing of Iranian consular facilities in Syria, which killed two Iranian generals and five other officers, was, in effect, a direct attack on Iranian sovereign territory.
Now, it isn't as if Israel didn't have justification, in as much as Hamas and Hezbollah are not much more than cat's paws for Iran.
However, that attack did require a direct response. Which Iran conducted with much warning, and knowing it would fail somewhere between totally and completely.
Retaliation complete. No need to perpetuate the cycle.
Michael K. Good to see you still posting.
RC Belaire at 10:23 predicted a Chinese attack on Taiwan before the Nov elections, due to the stuff going on in the Middle East and the fecklessness of the Biden admin.
I'm thinking the period after the election is more likely, esp if Trump manages to defeat the Deep State and win. Biden and his crew will be occupied with trying to f things up for the incoming administration, and the Chinese will know that Trump will not think positively of such behavior once he is in the White House. If Biden wins, China will delay a couple of years until they further strengthen their forces. Other sources state 2027- I think that is correct if Biden wins re-election.
Rabel said...
Creola Soul said...
"This is Israel’s opening to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability. Remember, Iran has sworn to destroy Israel."
I agree. If not now, then when?
***********
OK. Now look at a map of the Middle East and tell us HOW Israel could do that, short of using nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles.
The Saudis might allow their territory to be overflown, given their historical hatred of the Iranians, but you have to know that someone in Saudi Arabia (likely an Iranian spy) would spot those planes and alert Teheran.
What's more, Iran has surely placed its nuclear facilities in deep "hardened" locations. So the prior sucesses against above-ground Syrian and Iraqi reactor sites don't provide much guidance as to how to knock out buried targets.
So...much easier said than done. And Israel would be very wary about being the first country since WWII to use nukes.
Narayanan estimates that Iran spent $10 million to Israel's Billion on weekend activities.
True enough.
I'm thinking that Kharg Island could be rendered inoperative for Israel's $10 million, with direct loss of a few billion in hardware and resultant hundreds of billions of lost revenue to Iran. They could even warn the Iranians to evacuate the people to make it look cleaner.
I read this morning that shooting down 300 missiles and drones probably cost Israel $1 Billion.
How many $1B dings should a country take without retaliation? I'd say none.
Iran must have anticipated some retaliation when they decided to launch the missiles. What is their plan? Do they want a wider war? Or do they really believe Biden is in control?
Wince said: "Retaliation should be measured, but only in the "keep your powder dry" sense." I'd add, keep the Iranians guessing when the real shit is going to fall.
God help us if the Democrats win the election.
Balfegor said...
"In this particular case, shouldn't we understand Iran's strike as specific retaliation for Israel attacking the Iranian embassy in Syria first? That kind of violation of core diplomatic norms can escalate into wider war..."
**************
As Dr. Weevil reminds us, Iran has had no compunctions about violating "core diplomatic norms".
In addition to its 1992 Buenos Aires attacks on Israel's embassy, Iran held our entire Tehran embassy staff hostage for more than a year during the Carter presidency.
Kinda weakens your case, doncha think?
The judgment of ~2006 or so that "Joe Biden has been wrong on every foreign policy decision for the last 40 years" is as correct today as it was then. Although 40 years is a little harsh--Slow Joe was shooting for the anchor clanker position in his law school class 40 years before that was sad. OTOH I think Joe claimed to be advising Golda Meir at the time, so there is that.
Iran literally gave Israel and the US a solid 48 hour warning / heads-up and used mostly easily intercepted slow moving drones. This was done to retaliate but in a measured way so avoiding escalation. Israel recognizes it slapped Iran first and Iran just slapped back. Now let’s hope saner heads prevail and everyone takes a step back. Unfortunately the word sane is rarely used when it comes to the Middle East.
You give money to Iran, Joe Biden, and this is what happens.
So let's see, Biden has brought us a repressive regime in Afghanistan, a war in the Ukraine, an expanding was in the mideast.
Vote for Joe! More War!
Hey Skipper - just so we're clear here, the Israeli's did not attack an Iranian consular facility. That is a lie, and you are spreading it. They attacked a building next door to to Consulate, housing Iranian Al Quds military command, who were planning further attacks on Israel, from a bordering country. They had no "protected" status.
You and RCOCEAN 2 are a couple of useful idiots, steeped in anti-semitism, eager to align with death's cult religious extremists who are eager to attack you next in your homeland.
Can someone point out to me any kind of successful campaign waged by anyone, friend or foe, in that part of the world? It's just endless murder and terror......There's something to be said for the Reagan response when they bombed the barracks in Lebanon.. He simply pulled out. There's also something to be said for the Israeli response to 10/6. They say it's disproportionate. Of course it is, and it should be. I think some Palestinians, although they will never say it out loud, must look at the devastation of their lives and property and think that however much fun all that rape and murder were, it just wasn't worth the ultimate price they paid for it....I don't know what Israel should do. Maybe if they let this one slide, they'll get a few extra months of peace, or maybe Iran will be encouraged to launch another attack. Iran is not particularly interested in world peace no matter what Israel does. I do think that Israel should pay due attention to its alliance with the US. The Democrats can turn on a Diem if they don't think their ally is sufficiently worthy.
Who could forget 1992, why that was just like Yesterday. Not 32 fucking years ago. So lets see, every 32 years Iran bombs an Israeli embassy while Israel bombs Iran or assassinates some Iranian Officer or scientist, like every other year. Yeah, Seems equal to me.
Good God. But again this is from the ol' Zionist playbook (which is the same as the leftist playbook) and the number one rule in the playbook is: Never play defense. Always attack. Always cry about your losses. Always play the victim. Never apologize or disavow any atrocity or bad thing YOUR side does. Your side is always right. The other side is always wrong.
And remember even if your side killed 30,000 innocent women and kids over the last 6 months, all that matters is that your side was attacked ONCE, six months ago, and lost 1000 people. And if you have a chance bring up something that happened 32 years ago - and act like that's relevant.
BTW, Mike Pence is on twitter acting like he's a member of the Israeli Government. Guess the USA is NOT HIS CONCERN. But Israel sure is. Maybe he and Asa Hutchinson can fly to the Israel and make a quick trip to the wailing wall.
Over-compensating Non-combat "vet" Howitzer Howard: "Q like his fellow coward Drago are praying for disaster because they think it's the only way to justify their treasonous allegiance to Trump over the US and Western Civilization."
This type of response is how Howard admits defeat and has nothing else to say because there are no new talking points issued by his betters...yet.
Howitzer Howard is very dependent on others for "his thoughts".
Like a child.
Biden is KKKontrolled by butt-fuKKKers.
US intelligence too inept and corrupt to take out white Old Ayatollahs of Iran and Putin.
What Israel can actually do and what it is allowed to do are two different things. If Israel does nothing, then it demonstrates to the America haters that Israel is an American puppet. Somebody tell the Lefties and Nazi's on this blog that although we may not be at war with Iran, Iran is at war with us. Non stop since 1978. Since Hamas and Hezbollah are Iranian proxies, Israel should hit them both as hard as it can and continue to do so until the proxies get tired of dying for Iran and the US should quietly help as payback for the 1978 embassy hostage and the terror attacks against US forces over the last 45 years. And yes, as stated above by others, Israel should take out the Iranian oil export terminals and their refineries with our help as a big FU to the Iranians and a covert warning to the Arabs. China and India will also get a very clear message in addition to the message they already received yesterday along with the Russians, that Western hardware that is well maintained and well crewed is something they haven't got a prayer against. By the way, lets arm Ukraine to their eyeballs so they can properly give the Soviet Union V2.0 the whipping they need in order for them to learn their lesson.
"Yeah, Israel, look, you don't have to fire back. Let Iran off the hook so they can fire at you another day. That's what we want you to do with Hamas. Back off. You've had a good run against Hamas for six months. Sure they have another stronghold in the Rafah city, but so what. Be kind to your enemies who want you dead, dead, dead."
Lots of clear headed common sense in these comments.
RCOCEAN II said...
"Who could forget 1992, why that was just like Yesterday. Not 32 fucking years ago.."
****************
Now do the establishment of Israel as a state in 1948. Who could forget 1948. why that was just yesterday. Not 74 years ago.
THEY sure as shit haven't forgotten.
Patience. Every mullah in the Mullarchy is going to be very careful opening packages or doors for, oh I dunno, forever?
Best near term response would be a pervasive cyberattack. Iran's internet shuts down? Or maybe loses all Mullah control buttons? Stuxnet to be you I guess....
T
In 2022 as Putin amassed troops on the Ukrainian border Biden told Putin "Don't, don't, Don't".
If I recall, he didn't say "don't." He allowed for a 'minor incursion.'
"Howard, Cook et al,
You voted for this. This is a result of your petulent disregard for your own peace and prosperity. Only because you could not emotionally handle Trump. The world did not have to be this way, but this is the way you wanted it.
"You owe the rest of us an apology. At least."
"Emotionally handle Trump?" Shit, I just can't stand a coarse, lying grifter and thief pretending to be anything other than that. Even if Trump presented a slate of policies that I could agree with, I could never support this hollow, cruel man of such putrid character.
@History Doc: Hey Skipper - just so we're clear here, the Israeli's did not attack an Iranian consular facility. That is a lie, and you are spreading it. They attacked a building next door to to Consulate, housing Iranian Al Quds military command, who were planning further attacks on Israel, from a bordering country. They had no "protected" status.
You and RCOCEAN 2 are a couple of useful idiots, steeped in anti-semitism, eager to align with death's cult religious extremists who are eager to attack you next in your homeland.
Did you even bother reading my comment, never mind taking it on board?
From what I have read, the building next door to the consulate was part of the facility. Regardless of whether that is technically true, the Iranians could easily view it as distinction without difference. Hence the retaliation.
Certainly, you missed the part where I asserted the Israelis had plenty of cause to directly attack those generals. Or, perhaps, you don't know what the term "cat's paw" means.
Regardless. Your reply proves you are the prototypical internet asshole. Jumping to conclusions, getting all of them wrong, and completely failing to address an argument on its merits.
Heck, I'll bet you didn't bother to even suss what my argument even was.
“Why hasn't Biden gotten the US hostages back?”
Because they’ve been dead for months.
Robert Cook: "Even if Trump presented a slate of policies that I could agree with, I could never support this hollow, cruel man of such putrid character."
Unreconstructed stalinist Robert Cook finds DJT not to his liking.
Discuss.
Over-compensating Non-combat "vet" Howitzer Howard: "Lots of clear headed common sense in these comments."
Interesting observation: Howard has yet to acknowledge obambi/biden sent $150 billion PLUS another $1.8 billion in cold hard cash to their bestest islamic supremacist mad mullah pals in 2013.
Howitzer Howard may very well be the very last lefty who refuses to acknowledge this basic fact. Probably because acknowledgement would obliterate his child-like blog tactics which are driven by his clear ignorance married to his effortless mendacity.
Lets see if Howie takes this opportunity to remedy that.
My prediction? Deflection and projection which, if history is any indicator, will include a bizarre and disconnected reference to the '83 Beirut Marine barracks bombing.
Howard said...
"Lots of clear headed common sense in these comments."
None of it from you. As usual.
Cook said, ""Emotionally handle Trump?" Shit, I just can't stand a coarse, lying grifter and thief pretending to be anything other than that. Even if Trump presented a slate of policies that I could agree with, I could never support this hollow, cruel man of such putrid character."
Thanks for making my point.
Open Question: Have the obama people that are in charge of the White House ALREADY given biden orders to greenlight and fund the next Iranian attack on Israel, in the same way they greenlit and funded the first Iranian attack, the Taliban re-takeover of Afghanistan, the russki takeover of Crimea and invasion of Eastern Ukrainian provinces, etc?
And, I assume, whatever timetable Xi requires for the takeover of Taiwan.
After Afghanistan, Ukraine and Iran's missile attack on Israel, it should be clear the Biden's "Don't" is the signal for attack. I imagine that Netanyahu has decoded message that as well.
@Howard You seriously think we should continue to stand by while Iran continues to do its best to screw up the middle east and Israel? My point was that, though not as successful , the Iran attack was similar to Pearl Harbor in that it brought Iran out into the open in this conflict and invited retaliation. Revenge is the best medicine and given the various countries that supported the downing of the Iranian weapons I am convinced there would be very little backlash for one retaliatory strike. If you think the Iranians sent old and slow weapons so they could look like a bunch of incompetents I have a bridge I'll sell you.
Bibi needs to keep up the skeer among the Muzzies. In other words he shouldn’t attack until his victory is certain. And that won’t happen until his #1 ally is back. That can only happen in January 2025 after Obama-Biden is out of control of the USA.
"...advising Israel that it does not necessarily need to fire back at Iran..."
Need has nothing to do with it. Necessity has nothing to do with it. The only issue is how to prevent future attacks from Iran. The options range from giving Iran billions to spend on proxy terrorists (likely to generate other problems) to nuking Iran until it has no offensive capability (likely to generate other problems). I will wager the Israelis settle on something between those two extremes. Here's hoping srael is successful in disabusing the Iranians from their murderous ideas and behaviors.
Minnesota Farmer: I understand revenge, but throwing the region into chaos, disrupting the oil supply, causing a global economic disaster and forever destroying any potential for a Saudi Israeli alliance is too high a price to pay.
Shorter Robert Cook and the entire left:
"We don't care if the world goes up in flames under Crook Joe. Trump is icky."
Drago.
They've funded every attack so far.
Israel thus far has been very even handed with Iran. Iran's response was testing the perimeter. Iran knows perfectly well that Israel, with conventional munitions, could leave Tehran a smoking ruin.
Israel recognizes it slapped Iran first and Iran just slapped back.
And history started 15 min ago. Yet again.
Robert Cook said...
If Israel counters, it could very well lead to a broad mid-eastern war involving multiple nations, including the US
Then again, probably it won’t. Iran and the Palestinians are not especially beloved by Arab nations in the Middle East.
"Shorter Robert Cook and the entire left:
'We don't care if the world goes up in flames under Crook Joe. Trump is icky.'"
It is more likely the world might go up in flames if Israel (or the USA acting through or on behalf of Israel) inflicts a major military attack on Iran. Look at the 20 year disaster in Iraq and Afghanistan that we instigated 22 years ago...on two nations weaker than Iran.
@Howard You will note that Saudi is one of the states that is involved in trying to suppress the Houthis - an Iranian proxy. A retaliatory strike would have much less chance of creating the oil supply disaster you fear with the Saudis as worried about Iran as we are. You also will remember that under Trump the US was "oil independent" to the degree that we did not have to worry too much about what happened to oil in the mid-east. Took Biden about 6 months to end that happy state. Look where it has gotten us!
And yet, Cook, you're love of Biden placed us where we are today.
Isreal is not consulting with the feckless Washington DC as to what their next move should be. Israel is consulting with Saudi Arabia as to what their next move should be.
I agree with former PM, Naftali Bennett. His response in full:
Some points regarding the overnight Iranian missile attack on Israel:
1. Contrary to what pundits are saying, this wasn’t designed merely as “bells and whistles” with no damage.
When you shoot 350 flying objects timed to hit Israel at the same moment, when you use three fundamentally different weapon types—cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and UAVs, you’re looking to penetrate Israel’s defenses and kill Israelis.
2. The US administration is telling us: “This is a victory, you’ve already won by thwarting the missiles. No need for any further action.”
No, it’s NOT a victory.
Yes, it’s a remarkable success of Israel’s air defense systems, but it’s not a victory.
When a bully tries to hit you 350 times and only succeeds seven time, you’ve NOT won.
You don’t win wars just by intercepting your enemy’s hits, nor do you deter it.
Your enemy will just try harder with more and better weapons and methods next time.
How DO you deter?
By exacting a deeply painful price.
3. It’s incorrect to say “nobody got hurt”.
There’s a 7 year-old Israeli-Arab girl called Amina Elhasuny fighting for her life.
That’s who coward Khamenei hit.
4. The Islamic Republic of Iran made a big mistake.
For the past 30 years it’s been wreaking havoc on the region—through its proxies.
A terror-octopus whose head is Tehran, and its tentacles are in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Gaza.
How convenient.
The Mullahs send others to conduct horrendous terror attacks, and die for them.
Other people’s blood.
Israel’s strategic mistake for the past 30 years was to play along this strategy.
We always fought the Octopus’ arms, but hardly exacted a price from its Iranian head.
This should change now:
Hezbollah or Hamas shoots a rocket at Israel?
Tehran pays a price.
5. The enemy is the Iranian REGIME, not the wonderful Iranian people.
The Iranian regime reminds me of the Soviet regime in 1985: corrupt to the core, old, incompetent, despised by its own people, and destined to collapse.
The sooner the better.
The West can accelerate the regime’s inevitable collapse with a set of soft and clever actions, short of military force.
Remember, USSR collapsed without any need for a direct American attack.
Let’s do this.
6. Israel is fighting everybody’s war. In Gaza, Lebanon and Tehran.
We’re considered “the small satan” by radical Islam. America is the big one.
I’ll be clear: if these crazy fanatic Islamic terrorists get away with murder by hiding among civilians, this method will be adopted by terrorists worldwide.
We’re not asking anyone to fight for us. We’ll do the job.
But we do expect our allies to have our back, especially when it’s tough—and now it’s tough.
Be on the right side and help us defeat these horrible and savage regimes.
Can’t help but notice how many people who complained about not understanding their kid’s math homework turned into infectious disease experts and military strategists over the last year and a half.
"And yet, Cook, you're love of Biden placed us where we are today."
First, that would be "your," not "you're." Second, I have no "love of Biden." I did not vote for him. I voted for the Green Party candidate, as I have done since 1996.
Thank you Mr. Grammarian. "Second, I have no "love of Biden.""
Of course you do. As long as it hurts Trump you're overjoyed.
Green Party candidate = socialist.
You remind me of Morton Sobell who wrote a long and detailed book about how he was not a Russian spy and the FBI had a vendetta against him. And he was a victim because he was just a socialist which wasn't illegal anyway. And Oh! the injustice! And a lot of 'right thinking' people believed him and went to bat for him. And then the Venona papers came out.
And the funny thing is even today people think that ole Mort Sobell and his friends Julius and Ethel were completely innocent and set up by the FBI.
Rusty,
You seem a bit excitable, what with your run on and silly non sequitur about Morton Sobel. Maybe cut down on your coffee late in the day.
Just trying to be helpful!
Post a Comment