"If Wisconsin Democrats lose several low-budget state legislative contests here on Tuesday... it may not matter who wins the $114 million tossup contest for governor ..."

"... between Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, and Tim Michels, a Republican. Those northern seats would put Republicans in reach of veto-proof supermajorities that would render a Democratic governor functionally irrelevant.... The Republican leaders in the Wisconsin Legislature say they will bring back all 146 bills Mr. Evers has vetoed during his four years in office — measures on elections, school funding, pandemic mitigation efforts, policing, abortion and the state’s gun laws — if they win a supermajority or if Mr. Michels is elected."

From "Wisconsin Republicans Stand on the Verge of Total, Veto-Proof Power/In a 50-50 battleground state, Republicans are close to capturing supermajorities in the State Legislature that would render the Democratic governor irrelevant even if he wins re-election" (NYT).

The northern seats are "three counties in Wisconsin’s far northwest corner make up one of the last patches of rural America that have remained loyal to Democrats through the Obama and Trump years... Douglas, Bayfield and Ashland Counties."

If Ron DeSantis asked me "How do you spell Lambeau?," I'd say "L-A-M-B-E-R-T."

But that's just my sense of political humor, and I have a long memory, and it certainly goes back to 2004, when John Kerry campaigned in Wisconsin and called Lambeau "Lambert." 

Anyway, here's the context for Ron's question "How do you spell Lambeau?," from the NYT article "Tom Brady and Ron DeSantis Are Said to Be on Texting Terms/The Republican nominee for Wisconsin governor, Tim Michels, told supporters recently that while DeSantis was watching a Packers game at Lambeau Field, he was texting the Buccaneers quarterback": 

Independent women now favor the Republicans by 18 percentage points, when last month they favored Democrats by 14 points.

That's a 32-point turnaround. How the hell could that happen?!

That's from the new Times/Siena poll, discussed in the NYT article "Republicans Gain Edge as Voters Worry About Economy, Times/Siena Poll Finds/With elections next month, independents, especially women, are swinging to the G.O.P. despite Democrats’ focus on abortion rights. Disapproval of President Biden seems to be hurting his party." 

The NYT says that's "a striking swing given... how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights."

Obviously, one explanation is that the polls are massaged and the direction of the massage changes as we get closer to the election. That would mean the earlier poll was more about shaping opinion, and the new poll, so close to the election, needs to approximate what will actually happen in the election, so the pollsters won't lose credibility. We've all heard that explanation.

But a 32-point turnaround in one month — that's so huge!

Abject fealty.

Don’t miss the inside scoop on Tim Michels’s abject fealty to Donald Trump election denialism—to the point of declaring his interest in overturning the LAST election—in this brilliant investigation https://t.co/60TMEu1egG

— Ben Wikler (@benwikler) October 14, 2022

"Abject" means "of low repute; despicable, wretched; self-abasing, servile, obsequious" — according to the OED, which gives this example of the usage of the word from 1579:

1579 G. Harvey Let.-bk. (1884) 87 Lerned philosophers..are the dryest, leanist, ill-favoriddist, abiectist, base-mind[e]dist carrions.

And I like this Tobias Smollett's "Humphry Clinker":

I know nothing so abject as the behaviour of a man canvassing for a seat in parliament.

Yes, everyone running for everything is abject. 

Here's Samuel Beckett (from "No's Knife," 1967):

The aversion my person inspired even in its most abject and obsequious attitudes.

Now, "fealty" is "The obligation of fidelity on the part of a feudal tenant or vassal to his lord" (OED). It's also used figuratively, which how Wikler — the chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin — is using it. 

He's not quite saying that Michels is acting like a vassal to Lord Trump. The accusation of fealty is not to Trump the man, but to Trump's idea that Joe Biden was not legitimately elected. 

When is the dedication to an idea low, despicable, and wretched or self-abasing, servile, and obsequious?

An argument to Wisconsin: Do we want to "become Florida"?

Let’s show Tim Michels that Wisconsinites do not want Wisconsin to become Florida.

Like Ron DeSantis, Tim Michels is dangerous and divisive for our future.https://t.co/M58ZGhG0fa

— Sara Rodriguez (@sara4WI) September 20, 2022

 

I'm reading the linked article, and see that DeSantis gave a speech in Green Bay "just an hour before the Packers' home opener against the Chicago Bears, predicting Wisconsin would turn into Sunshine State of the north if Tim Michels is elected governor in November."

So DeSantis is selling himself as a brand. Instead of DeSantis being another politician in the image of Trump, he's presenting himself as the image that other politicians, like Michels, can be in the image of.

You've heard of "Make America Great Again." Now, here's Destroy Wisconsin Great Again.

I'm just noticing the violent verbs in the Tim Michels ad that appeared in a sidebar (at Real Clear Politics):

Bulldoze, demolish, and hammer.

I get the metaphor — construction. But it's all in the demolition phase. Destruction, not construction, including "hammer." I know you can build things with a hammer, but "Hammer Madison Special Interests" is a picture of clobbering opponents. And he's even got the word "killing" in there. I know it's criticizing Evers for "killing" jobs, but I don't think I've ever seen a political ad with so much metaphorical violence in such a small space. 

ADDED: Another thing about the hammer image:

"It's the hammer of justice."

"Self-proclaimed political outsider Tim Michels will face Democratic Gov. Tony Evers in November..."

"... after defeating his primary challenger Rebecca Kleefisch in Wisconsin's heated GOP gubernatorial primary Tuesday. Despite entering the race in late April, more than six months after former Lt. Gov. Kleefisch, Michels rode a surging campaign into Tuesday’s primary thanks in part to an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, who held a rally supporting Michels in Waukesha County on Friday....  While stumping for Michels in Waukesha County on Friday, Trump described Kleefisch as 'the handpicked candidate of the failed establishment, the "RINOs."'...  Evers' campaign manager Cassi Fenili [said]... 'The Republican Party has chosen the most extreme and divisive nominee possible, one that will tell Donald Trump anything just to keep his endorsement... From abortion and voting rights, to gun safety and public education — Tim Michels has staked out the most extreme positions possible, with the goal of dividing our state and pitting neighbors against one another.'"

The Wisconsin State Journal reports.