The Houthis, an armed group backed by Iran that controls much of northern Yemen, have been using drones and missiles to target ships since Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7.... [T]aking the Cape of Good Hope route could add roughly $1 million, or around a third, to the cost of a round trip from Asia to Europe... A portion of that additional cost could be passed on to consumers just as inflation is slowing in the United States and Europe. The attacks have already appeared to push up the price of oil.... The economic impact has increased the pressure on the United States and other countries to stop the attacks by the Houthis....
The problem with the Panama Canal is entirely different: "The lack of rain has reduced the amount of water available to fill the locks."
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Michael Yon has said China is going to take the Canal. He has spent a lot of time interviewing "migrants" there. Lots of military age Chinese. I think there's trouble brewing for what's left of United States of America.
Kiddies won't know what hit 'em.
And yet the US State Department can't make up their mind if they're a terrorist organization or not.
I wonder why?
Ryan Mcbeth's Substack has the goods...
Houthi Rebels, Yemen, the USS Carney and Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea.
The USS Carney is now the world's largest distributer of Iranian drone parts.
RYAN MCBETH
He's got a wicked sense of humor too!
We need to resurrect Teddy Roosevelt and have him dig the Panama Canal with his bare hands...maybe deeper this time Teddy.
We'll even let you use gloves. We promise we won't tell anyone.
XTwitter poster @stillgrey: “Reminder that Biden removed them (Houthis in Yemen) from the terror list on his first day in office. Another foreign policy failure.”
I don’t know if this is true or not.
What happens when America no longer protects the sea lanes?
Hmmm. I read Peter Zeihan's latest book this summer. He sees a world in which, due to an American pullback from its role as the world's enforcer, international shipping becomes less reliable. Things really come a cropper if shipping becomes uninsurable.
(cont). In such a world, the US fares better than most.
A man, a plan, a canal, Zeus
"[T]aking the Cape of Good Hope route could add roughly $1 million, or around a third, to the cost of a round trip from Asia to Europe... A portion of that additional cost could be passed on to consumers just as inflation is slowing in the United States and Europe. The attacks have already appeared to push up the price of oil.... The economic impact has increased the pressure on the United States and other countries to stop the attacks by the Houthis...."
I just learned that all this shit, we're always getting into, is to insure fucking Yurp has access to oil. NOT us. We're an oil producer and exporter, and anything we need, extra, comes from Canada and Venezuela - NOT the Middle East. So, basically, we're making the Arabs hate us so the French can be content. Or something. We're even afraid of communism for them. They kick back, having three hour lunches and hardly spending on defense, while we stay on-guard on their behalf. And Yurp laughs at us. They take better care of their people than we do, and we do, too. It's crazy. We're crazy. Just completely fucking insane.
"[T]aking the Cape of Good Hope route could add roughly $1 million, or around a third, to the cost of a round trip from Asia to Europe... A portion of that additional cost could be passed on to consumers just as inflation is slowing in the United States and Europe. The attacks have already appeared to push up the price of oil.... The economic impact has increased the pressure on the United States and other countries to stop the attacks by the Houthis...."
I just learned that all this shit, we're always getting into, is to insure fucking Yurp has access to oil. NOT us. We're an oil producer and exporter, and anything we need, extra, comes from Canada and Venezuela - NOT the Middle East. So, basically, we're making the Arabs hate us so the French can be content. Or something. We're even afraid of communism for them. They kick back, having three hour lunches and hardly spending on defense, while we stay on-guard on their behalf. And Yurp laughs at us. They take better care of their people than we do, and we do, too. It's crazy. We're crazy. Just completely fucking insane.
Don't they collect fares to pass these channels, and preform maintenance??
Aren't the rocket launching rebels on the shoreline a maintenance problem??
This was the original reason for going from Europe around the Cape of Good Hope to begin with.
I saw the Houthi’s play at CBGBs in 1986.
Wasn't it nice when the US ran things? The multipolar tyranny is creating multiples of misery.
The lack of rain may contribute to the problem, BUT The Panama Canal is bigger than formerly. It takes more water to fill it every time it's used. The amount of (fresh, lake) water available for filling has not increased at all, and certainly not as much as the capacity of the new wider canal.
I admit to being an idiot on engineering things. But I always thought the water in the Panama Canal came from the ocean(s). (Equally an idiot about whether that ocean flow would go east-west or west-east. Thanks in advance for explanations.
When the ancient Romans had piracy issues they sent ships and marines to the sources of trouble. Whenever the navy located a port which supported piratical activity the marines were sent in. All of the pirate vessels were burned to the waterline, all of the adult males were crucified on the shoreline for passing ships to see, and all the women and children were sold into slavery.
This temporarily solved the problem but every few years a new task force would have to be sent out to do it all over again.
Today we can't even call them terrorists.
If you follow CDR Salamander, you know that a coalition, of sorts, (the Canadians have pledged 3 staff officers), has been formed, and a detachment of Burke class destroyers has been dispatched. Hopefully, they will be allowed to shoot back. Some counter battery fire would be nice.
OTOH, so.e are challenging the US's responsibility to provide police protection to ensure safe shipping over the sea lanes. What are these people smoking? Why do we have a Navy?k
The attacks by the Houthis, though relatively small in scale, are successful since shipping has been disrupted. We need to send in a coalition of forces to stop them, otherwise this small group will shut down the Middle East oil producing industry. At some point the Saudi’s will say enough and will do it.
In the meantime, the Biden administration continues to block new oil production on federal land. It’s reminiscent of the Sheriff in “Blazing Saddles” holding the gun to his own head.
Lack of rain? The Panama Canal connects one ocean to another. What does rain have to do with it?
There is a CNN Report dated February 5, 2021, some two weeks after Slow Joe took office.
The title is "Biden to remove Houthis from Terrorist List, Reversing Trump's Decision",
Petty, feeble, senile Joe acted like a bratty kindergarten child tearing down every block house built by the other kids.
Now The Bad Orange Man might not be that much better come early February 2025 when he sets about reversing everything Joe screwed up. But people were mostly feeling good about things and how they were going until 2020 when Fauci's Chinese Lung Rot showed up. And people are mostly feeling bad under the thumb of the posse running things for Slow Joe. So maybe The Bad Orange Man might be right to do a bunch of things on Day One when he gets back into office.
Original Mike said... In such a world, the US fares better than most.
Makes sense—in an “every country for itself” environment, the ones with strong navies will fare the best. Perhaps other countries should be paying us for the service we’re providing.
yes that doesn't make any sense,
tim maguire (5:24pm):
The Panama Canal is not at sea level. There are multiple locks to raise the ships as they head towards the highest point, then lower them on the other side. The middle section is ~85 feet above sea level. The water to fill the locks comes from lakes and rivers that are even higher, and every time a lock is opened more water is lost. Getting all that water from either ocean would involve a huge amount of pumping.
tim maguire said...
Lack of rain? The Panama Canal connects one ocean to another. What does rain have to do with it? 12/19/23, 5:24 PM
The center of the isthmus is about 85 feet higher than at either end, and the series of canal locks is fed by the lake located at/near the highest point: Gatun Lake. One could, I suppose, dig down enough to deepen the entirety of the canal, but it would have to be dug out deep enough to eliminate that 85-foot rise (to meet the level of both oceans) PLUS whatever additional depth is needed to accommodate transiting vessels' draft.
https://images.app.goo.gl/3vkM6fk6hCHXoiA37
"Lack of rain? The Panama Canal connects one ocean to another. What does rain have to do with it?"
Seriously? You've always struck me as an knowledgeable guy…
H said...
"I admit to being an idiot on engineering things. But I always thought the water in the Panama Canal came from the ocean(s). (Equally an idiot about whether that ocean flow would go east-west or west-east. Thanks in advance for explanations."
It's a series of connected lakes that are a lot higher than ocean level.
It's a mysterious combination of a black hole with dark energy beneath a lake.
Blogger tim maguire said...
Lack of rain? The Panama Canal connects one ocean to another. What does rain have to do with it?
didn't they say the waterlevel was rising, make up their minds
I like the absurdity of the "this will add to inflation". Most of the Goods imported to the USA don't go through the Suez Canal. And the idea that adding a million to shipping costs will have a significant impact is insane.
Lack of rain? The Panama Canal connects one ocean to another. What does rain have to do with it?
The Canal goes through a large lake at one point. The locks were built for a certain level of lake water.
H said...
I admit to being an idiot on engineering things. But I always thought the water in the Panama Canal came from the ocean(s). (Equally an idiot about whether that ocean flow would go east-west or west-east.
Height change on the Panama Canal isn't a lot- Gatun Lake, the high point is for water level is 85' above sea level- doesn't specify Atlantic of Pacific. And sea level is differenct between the two sides. The canal path and Gatun Lake are fed by freshwater sources, and the locks are freshwater locks. Gatun Lake is manmade and the primary source for filling the locks.
And a funny fact about the canal- to go from the Atlantic, on the East side, to the Pacific, on the West side, you travel southeast...
The freshwaters feeding into the canal are also drinking water and agricultural water sources for Panama. And, of course, the canal bed isn't concrete all along- so saltwater contamination would seep into groundwater...
that and two bucks will get you an expresso,
I'm glad to see Iy wasn't the only idiot on this. And thanks to all for the explanations. I found Colocomment at 6:45 the clearest. But others were making the same point.
"Makes sense—in an “every country for itself” environment, the ones with strong navies will fare the best."
Also, North America is resource rich and has a relatively strong internal economy and young population, reducing our dependence on exports as a source of wealth.
"Perhaps other countries should be paying us for the service we’re providing."
Indeed.
The original French plan of Ferdinand de Lesseps was to build a sea level canal, as he had done at Suez. That proved impossible. When the US took over the effort the plan was changed to use a freshwater lake to feed water to the locks - water flowing downhill. Some engineers had actually recommended this to de Lesseps but he did not heed their advice.
On March 10, 2022, my wife and I made a westbound transit of the Canal on a cruise from New Orleans to San Diego. Unfortunately, we had to go through the new locks, instead of the original locks, due to modifications to the ship's hull. Still, for this old engineer, it was a great experience. It took an entire day. And it was a very busy place, I was surprised how much activity there was. I would like to do it again going eastbound and through the original locks. Every American should take great pride in one of the world's greatest engineering achievements, probably the most difficult construction project of all time.
would just digging deeper alleviate anything?
Lem the artificially intelligent said...
"XTwitter poster @stillgrey: “Reminder that Biden removed them (Houthis in Yemen) from the terror list on his first day in office. Another foreign policy failure.”
I don’t know if this is true or not."
Scretary of State Anthony J Blinken removed the designation on 12 Feb 2021 (effective 16 Feb 2021): https://www.state.gov/revocation-of-the-terrorist-designations-of-ansarallah
"I like the absurdity of the "this will add to inflation". Most of the Goods imported to the USA don't go through the Suez Canal. And the idea that adding a million to shipping costs will have a significant impact"
But the countries of Europe that purchase oil, natural gas, and other raw material from the Middle East, as well as materials from some parts of Africa or South Asia, will see their costs increase. And Europe is a major trading partner of the US.
Generally, any closure of any of the four main trade chokepoints in the world - Suez Canal, Panama Canal, Straits of Gibraltar, and the Straits of Malacca - can have a global impact on costs and availability of critical materials.
Oops. And I should have added the Strait of Hormuz as well, which might be the most critical of all, as it offers no alternate route.
Are we saying the multiple carrier groups we have in the area can not flatten the Houthis sites convincingly.
Or do we need a task force for political cover?
Sad either way.
Without reading other comments:
A portion of that additional cost could be passed on to consumers just as inflation is slowing in the United States and Europe.
A portion? "Could" be?
And wasn't I assured that inflation has been - what did they tell me again... already rendered a non-issue, is the essence of it - already slowed to the point of irrelevancy?
Gosh, it appears that the Gazan conflict has greater repercussions than just whether idealistic youths march in the streets to emphasize the monstrosity of Israel.
Narayanan said...
"would just digging deeper alleviate anything?"
Unfortunately the hills are not bedrock, but soil. The problem was that the deeper they dug the more the hills had to be cut back to prevent the mud from slumping into the cut. One of the engineers here can give a better answer, but I think for every meter in depth the hillside had to be cut back 15 meters. The hillsides became terraced. More materiel was removed from the hillsides than the actual cut.
My previous comment is missing again.
We are playing with fire. The Straits of Hormuz are the real issue. And the fact that the Houthis could cause other Gulf Arab states major headaches with regards to oil production, and Putin's Russia is in no mood to pull our chestnuts out of any fire we start by pumping more oil. And did you know that the Strategic Oil Reserves are stored in salt caverns, and cannot simply be drained and refilled indefinitely as if they were steel tanks.
There are a billion Muslims. I don't see how we are going to convince them that any "flattening" of the Houthis is anything less than a genocide undertaken to save shipping miles, but your ideas for a convincing narrative, that doesn't drive them further into the arms of Russia, China, and Iran are welcome. Even the name "Prosperity Guardian" suggests an economic justification for whatever carnage is to come. The fact that the "ten countries" involved are almost entirely European is not going to help. Geography is a bitch.
he US is concerned about the cost of missiles used against Houthi drones, according to Politico, as the country is trillions of dollars in debt
According to US official, the US has used SM-2 missiles worth $2.1 million to intercept a Yemeni drone worth $2000.
Maybe we should think about diplomacy. Or is diplomacy just another word for treason agains the will of Joe Biden.
and just wait until China starts blocking the shipping lanes through the West Philippine sea to pressure Korea and Japan not to oppose their invasion of Taiwan.
Nancy Reyes said...
"and just wait until China starts blocking the shipping lanes through the West Philippine sea to pressure Korea and Japan not to oppose their invasion of Taiwan."
Remind me again. How many aircraft carrier task forces does China command?
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