March 30, 2020

"So you’re talking about 2.2 million deaths. 2.2 million people from this. If we can hold that down as we’re saying, to 100,000..."

"... it’s a horrible number — maybe even less, but to 100,000, so we have between 100 and 200,000, we altogether have done a very good job. 2.2, up to 2.2 million deaths and maybe even beyond that? I’m feeling very good about what we did last week.... [Easter] was just an aspiration.... Easter... could be a peak period... We had an aspiration of Easter, but when you hear these kind of numbers and you hear the potential travesty, we don’t want to do anything where, you know, we don’t want to have it spike up. We don’t want to do it soon and then all of a sudden you go down, you’re coming down, and then you start going up again, because we discussed that could happen, and we don’t want that to happen. We’ve gone through too much....  I said, 'It would be a great thing if we could do it by Easter,' and we know much more now.... Unfortunately, the enemy is death. It’s death. A lot of people are dying, so it’s very unpleasant. It’s a very unpleasant thing to go through, but the level of competence, the level of caring, the level of love, I just think it’s brilliant and it’s possibly happening in other countries, possibly. I don’t know, I can’t speak to other countries, but I can speak to the United States of America, and I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. I am very proud to be your President."

Said President Trump, at yesterday's coronavirus transcript.

2.2 million is a number — a number of deaths — that the experts were citing in the task force discussions. The continuing lockdown is portrayed as an effort to keep the number down to 100,000 deaths. You can see that when Trump said 100,000, he paused to declare that a "horrible number," because it is horrible to hear now, but 100,000 compares favorably to 2.2 million, which is the number he was told would die if we did nothing. As Trump put it:
[B]efore we heard the 2.2 million people... we had a lot of people were saying maybe we shouldn’t do anything, just ride it. They say ride it like a cowboy. Just ride it. Ride that sucker right through. That’s where the 2.2 million people come in. Would have died maybe, but it would have been 1.6 to 2.2, and that’s not acceptable, but there were a lot of people that said… I thought about it. I said, “Maybe we should ride it through.” You know you always hear about the flu.... You’ll have 35, 36, 37,000 people die, sometimes more, sometimes less. This is different....
Ride it like a cowboy. Just ride it. Ride that sucker right through.... That was the alternative. Ride it like a cowboy... to 2.2 million deaths.

Perhaps the metaphor of the cowboy came from the notion of getting — as quickly as possible — to "herd" immunity. But we are not cattle.

332 comments:

1 – 200 of 332   Newer›   Newest»
Fernandinande said...

The continuing lockdown is portrayed as an effort to keep the number down to 100,000 deaths.

Is that sentence phrased passively because Trump didn't mention a lockdown, much less portray it as anything?

Heartless Aztec said...

My great grandfather and namesake died of the Spanish Flu in 1921. I've gotta' get past 2021 and the aweful symetry of 100 years. If by chance I dont make it past that date my wishes are to be buried next to him. I guess I'll be riding in the same rodeo come to town.

Triangle Man said...

This is a reasonable summary of his response to the pandemic. He could have gone with "riding out the storm," but I don't think he has nautical inclinations.

Mark said...

Don't hold your breath for those who have insisted on lower death toll to admit their mistake.

Heck, Achilles will likely find it just another reason to call other posters assholes like last week.

AllenS said...

Eventually, 2.2 million people will die of something.

tim in vermont said...

"Achilles will likely find it just another reason to call other posters assholes like last week.”

Last week he called a link I put up to a concept I had learned in a math class forty years ago about the non intuitive impact of false positives “ChiCom propaganda.”

Browndog said...

I assume this is the week the death toll grows exponentially. If not this week, certainly the week after. Or, the week after that.

I'm seeing disturbing reports we are following the Italian reporting formula for corona deaths. You know, the "underlying health issues" actually being the cause of death, and the virus being the actual underlying, probable unrelated factor.

I hope it's just a few isolated cases, but it's something to keep an eye on.

tim in vermont said...

"Eventually, 2.2 million people will die of something.”

There are lots of poor people in the world too. What difference do a few more make?

tim in vermont said...

"I assume this is the week the death toll grows exponentially.”

Why don’t you give us your definition of “exponentially"

AllenS said...

If this shutdown doesn't end soon, there will be a bigly lot more poor people.

Shouting Thomas said...

But we are not cattle.

We are animals, mammals, just as cattle are.

Death is a reality. Death is not somebody's fault.

The notion that we should be exempt from a Black Swan event that takes out a lot of us is vanity.

The notion that somebody is to blame is nonsense.

And I might very well be one of the people taken out.

AllenS said...

I'm 73 years old. I'll be 74 in November. Will I live 20 more years? Ten?

tim in vermont said...

"f this shutdown doesn't end soon, there will be a bigly lot more poor people.”

So what? Isn’t that your attitude? So what? Poor? Dead? Poverty and death have always been with us.

tim in vermont said...

"The notion that we should be exempt from a Black Swan event that takes out a lot of us is vanity.”

You are like the rabbits in Watership Down who welcomed the snare.

Shouting Thomas said...

You are like the rabbits in Watership Down who welcomed the snare.

Ever considered Plague dancing and marching around the countryside flogging yourself?

Something must be done!

We gotta do something about it!

stevew said...

I'm having a hard time trusting anything the government says or does. It seems improbable to me that this virus has suddenly made the government competent. That's even allowing for what I see as good leadership from Trump.

Top Men Are Riding That Horse

tim in vermont said...

“Nothing can be done! We are helpless!"

rhhardin said...

I was out scything the lawn yesterday. Maybe this year it will be taken as an omen.

Fernandinande said...

Here's an unintended consequence - the police, maskless and gloveless, herding people into a crowd because they weren't "social distancing" the right way.

tim in vermont said...

As I recall, the plague is what killed the stranglehold of totalitarian Christianity on Europe, on account of the promised protections of saints’ relics never appeared. And I guess if saints’ relics won’t work, nothing will!

You get your vote, I get mine.

EsoxLucius said...

An even more uncaring and deadly thing than IQ45 has appeared and his response has been ENVY! Watch him answering Yamiche Alcindor's question https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1uWT_L58MGc, and find another person in America who would be a worse leader.

Browndog said...

Why don’t you give us your definition of “exponentially"

Why don't you just use the actual definition instead of implying I'm using it in bad faith?

lgv said...

I have been tracking numbers for over a week now. All these models of death are crazy. I have not been tracking by country, just world, USA, Texas, and Dallas County.

US numbers are unreliable since many countries have no way of knowing or lie. But, even with that, 34,000 have died worldwide. Will 2,166,000 die before this thing ends?

My tracking numbers indicate:

1) Despite increasing numbers of tests, the daily increase in confirmed cases has plateaued at around 20,000 in US

2) US daily deaths peaked at 501 in and were lower yesterday for the first time in my tracking

3) TX daily increase in cases went down yesterday for the first time, again even with increased testing.

A key stat we don't have access to is "recovered". This is probably way underreported as the definition of recovered is fairly tight. When the daily numbers of recovered exceed the daily additions, then we know it is on the downside.

Also, the stat I don't have is the number of hospitalizations to determine percentage of all cases that require a hospitalization., percentage of those that require a ventilator, and the average duration of stay/ventilator use. Questions no one is asking.

tim in vermont said...

"Maybe this year it will be taken as an omen.”

Weren’t you wondering why Alpha Orion has dimmed over the past couple months?

tim in vermont said...

"Why don't you just use the actual definition instead of implying I'm using it in bad faith?”

I am not implying it, I am saying it. You are using the word, why don’t you show us you understand the word you are using.

tim in vermont said...

Not bad faith, ignorance.

Shouting Thomas said...

You got your vote. I got mine.

Surprisingly, you don’t get to vote over whether you die.

Well, you can fool yourself into thinking you can.

Shouting Thomas said...

@tim

I suggest sacrificing a lamb on the altar.

tim maguire said...

tim in vermont said...You are like the rabbits in Watership Down who welcomed the snare.

There are a lot of different ways of looking at it, depending on how panicked you want to get.

Attributed deaths--the number can be scary. At this moment in time, they can be as scary as you want them to be.

Excess deaths--they are likely to be undetectable--never venturing outside normal variation. That is, if al we hadot go on was the numebr of peopel dying, we'd probably never even know there was a pandemic.

But as I've said before and will doubtless say again, there is too much emphasis on the fatality rate. In the end, the death rate is very likely to be not significantly higher than the flu and concentrated almost entirely among those who would be dead within a year anyway. The real scourge of the coronavirus will be the number of people, young people, people with many decades of life left, who have to live out those years with serious lung damage.

rehajm said...

There's evidence testing has slowed in the last few days, hence fewer new cases reported

Temujin said...

"Death. It's a very unpleasant thing to go through."
I chuckle multiple times when Trump is speaking. Not because he's trying to be funny (though sometimes he is), but because his natural inclination in his speech is so un-world-leader-like. He is not a classic speaker and he pulls things out of his butt that are of the street vernacular, not of a proper professional speaker. He does not speak politico. He speaks Queens, with a bit of Manhattan thrown in.

Ride that sucker through.

Still- even as you may cringe, you get his meaning.

Personally, I think they are doing a great job. The amount of activity: products and equipment being produced, products and equipment being transported/shipped/airfreighted from all over the globe. Working with companies to ramp these things up. Getting the private sector and government sectors to combine their strength and abilities to get things to where they need to go. More medical research: faster results, more tests, more research on the virus. There is so much going on. When I hear people (all of the press) whining and picking at small shit ("you said Easter. What do you say now? Huh? Huh?"...such small people they are.), I think that if they spent one ounce of time painting a picture of all that is actually going on, all that they are getting done, it would be a story for the ages. And they are missing it- our Journalists!

The other irritant to me are those that expect everyone to have everything they want immediately. It does not work that way. Everything takes time. But in this scale that they are getting things done, I think they are doing an amazing job of it all. Had this been another administration, without someone at the helm who understands who to call in the business world, how to get things done, how to 'motivate' or demand of private business to get on board, this would not have happened. Obama would have had a giant machine cranking out new government offices and departments trying to figure out what to do. He'd give nice speeches and we'd all be sitting here riding that sucker through.

Bay Area Guy said...

Trump is a better speaker, than writer. The transcript comes off as jumbled thought, but that's just style, not substance. He's basically trying to reduce fears from wildly inflated bullshit projections of massive futures deaths.

He said: "2.2 million is a number — a number of deaths — that the experts were citing in the task force discussions"

OK, but here's some real numbers - not bullshit projections designed to scare people.

California is the most popiulous state in our country - 39 Million people.

The number of Covid-19 deaths in Califirnia is 132. Source .

So, since I live in California and don't want to get sick and die, nor do I want my family, friends, neighbors, co-workers, partners, employees, or the homeless in downtown SF to get sick & die, I ask the simple question - What does 132 deaths here mean?

It means 3.4 deaths per 1 Million people. That's less than half the death rate of the entire USA. That's much less than last year's flu.

Now, most lucid thinkers will pause and reflect. All the media says massive death just around the corner! Experts were projecting 2.2, Million deaths! Now, only 100,000 deaths!! Be afraid! Stay home! Wash hands! Italy!!

And, yet, California quietly remains at 3.4 deaths per Million. And nobody asks if these are excess deaths, beyond what we ordinarily expect from a normal Califormia winter season.

Let's say you remain unpersuaded of the extremely large inference I am making here. That's fine. I don't come to Althouse to persuade anyone of anything. I just enjoy the blog. But do you not see the HUGE disconnect between sensational fear-mongering headlines and actual California numbers?

Have a nice Monday.

Shouting Thomas said...

Don't hold your breath for those who have insisted on lower death toll to admit their mistake.

If only the death toll had been accurately predicted, then... then...

What?

Fernandinande said...

If this shutdown doesn't end soon, there will be a bigly lot more poor people.

Would it be better or worse if food production and distribution decrease exponentially rather than linearly?

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

I'm reading this as 100,000 is the outside most deaths in the US.

Anything less than that and Trump can call himself a genius and the greatest president ever.

Consider a bad flu season has 60-80,000 deaths.

AllenS said...

As usual on Mondays, I'm going to the grocery store, then, later today, I'll have to go to the hardware store and get another tank of acetylene.

Since I'm alive, I'll continue to live as I want to. I refuse to panic. I'll let others do that.

Browndog said...

I am not implying it, I am saying it. You are using the word, why don’t you show us you understand the word you are using.

Buzz off.

Fernandinande said...

Trump can call himself a genius

If he goes out to the horse barn he can be a stable genius.

Browndog said...

rehajm said...

There's evidence testing has slowed in the last few days, hence fewer new cases reported


It's my understanding it's because lab are switching over to more efficient, higher volume testing platforms that were set to be operational this week.

tim maguire said...

Temujin said...The other irritant to me are those that expect everyone to have everything they want immediately.

I am often reminded of Reagan's critics during the early days of the AIDS crisis. They acted like AIDS could be cured with the wave of a magic wand but Reagan was being stingy with the pixie dust.

Or as the someone on here put it a few days ago, they are comparing Trump's real world response with the imaginary response of a perfect leader with perfect information and limitless resources.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

Speaking of excess death rate, I'm thinking that maybe a negative number. WuFlu is supposedly hardest on the already weak. This year's flu deaths should be lower than normal with all the isolation and distancing. Fewer gangbangers shooting each other. Fewer drunk driving deaths etc.

Wince said...

Sometimes I think life is just a rodeo
The trick is to ride and make it to the bell

... If I had my way, I'd shuffle off to Buffalo
Sit by the lake, and watch the world go by

Ladies in the sun, listenin' to the radio
Like flowers on the sand, the rainbow in my mind

Hey let's go all over the world
Rock and roll girls, rock and roll girls

Eleanor said...

It took a month to reach 1000 deaths from the virus, and we kill 3000 babies a day. Not even close.

Leland said...

This week will tell a bit. After months of this virus being spread across the world, we have 34,000 deaths world-wide. That number could double or more this week. Yet some are reporting a bend in the curve that the US isn't seeing. If there is a bend, then doubling may not occur. Even if the world was seeing 12,000 deaths a day (4 times what we had yesterday), it would take 180 days to get to 2.2 million deaths.

The 21 extra days is no surprise. After all, even if you flatten the curve, the area under the curve remains the same. Therefore, you simply push back the date of the peak and the date of recovery.

Anonymous said...

Mark,

"Don't hold your breath for those who have insisted on lower death toll to admit their mistake."

If you always thought the eventual death toll was going to be low, and then Trump says it could have been 2.2 million, you might have been wrong, or the 2.2 million could be biased wildly upward, such that we never were going to see them, even if we did nothing.

Conversely, if you think this thing was going to infect 60 million people and kill 600,000 of them, and then it dies off with 10,000 dead, were you wrong? Maybe, or maybe the measures we took in the belief it could get get that bad actually stopped it from getting that bad.

If you thought it was going to peak at 1200 U.S. dead, you are demonstrably wrong, unless you want to insist that those deaths have been attributed wrongly.

TreeJoe said...

2.2 million deaths from COVID-19 would be .7-.8% of the entire US population.

That doesn't seem unrealistic if we assume absolutely NO intervention.

I'm just glad to be alive during a time in which we have broad intervention at the individual, group, community, and national levels INCLUDING being at the forefront of development of therapies.

rhhardin said...

we are not cattle.

We are hat.

tim in vermont said...

"Buzz off.”

Right. This is the level of argument you see from the math muggles here.

Shouting Thomas said...

Just so I understand this, let me summarize...

Whoever wins the political argument on Althouse and Facebook is immune to death.

Predictions are magical elixirs.

As soon as we figure out who’s to blame, this shit will get fixed.

I’m gonna go play Chopin on the piano and meditate upon my mortality. The Nocturnes are especially good for that.

rhhardin said...

Look for an actuary named Mort.

Howard said...

I like the fact that Trump is not following the lead of his deplorables in this case. Rather he is listening to the Deep State and acting accordingly. The nice thing is that you people will buy anything that he sells so now he's cashing in those chips to do the right thing.

Ann Althouse said...

"Is that sentence phrased passively because Trump didn't mention a lockdown, much less portray it as anything?"

No.

Did you watch the briefing or read the whole thing? I am summarizing, and if you don't like my characterization, watch/read and make an improved statement yourself.

As for the word "lockdown," I didn't particularly want to use it, but I don't think "social distancing" is strong enough, but I think Trump is using that expression.

Jake said...

We are sheep.

Howard said...

I agree with that last comment completely Thomas. I could give a s*** who wins the debate. in fact I am very hopeful that the deniers are correct. The ends might not justify the means, but I will take it if it means victory

Big Mike said...

I'm 73 years old. I'll be 74 in November. Will I live 20 more years?

@AllenS, I hit 74 a couple months ahead of you, meaning we’re both from the first year of the Baby Boom. Note that if Ezekiel Emanuel had his way you’d have just twenty months to live, and I’d have even less.

Shouting Thomas said...

We are sheep.

Yes, this is built into basic Christian theology.

And God the father is our shepherd.

Greg Hlatky said...

The only thing more depressing than this pandemic are the discussions about this pandemic.

JPS said...

Browndog, 6:48:

What’s the Italian reporting formula?

Dust Bunny Queen said...

But we are not cattle.

And yet, we act like we are.

stevew said...

The 2.2 million deaths number is expressed to set a high mark beyond what is truly expected. There are a couple of potential reasons for doing so:

1. The real number comes in well under 2.2m, the shelter-in-place program is offered as the reason, and the government (State and Federal) declares victory.

2. The government is using the number to further support their police state machinations.

Me? I think it's the former.

Big Mike said...

I explained why I think the death toll won’t come near 100,000 unless we’re terribly unlucky as a nation. Maybe we used up all our luck when we got Donald Trump as our President instead the corrupt and incompetent Hillary Clinton?

tim in vermont said...

"in fact I am very hopeful that the deniers are correct.”

Who isn’t? It’s just that pushing scary thoughts out of your head doesn’t make the source of them go away. Unlike a lot of people here seem to think. But if you can successfully deny what is going on, it is easier to sleep at night and feel superior to all of the “sheep” who think this is real.

Fernandinande said...

Did you watch the briefing or read the whole thing?

Of course not. I have an aversion to politics.

There's a handy search function - try the strings "lock" and "down" and there's no "lockdown" or "lock down" in the transcript.

As for the word "lockdown," I didn't particularly want to use it, but I don't think "social distancing" is strong enough, but I think Trump is using that expression.

So you invented his use of the word "lockdown" because it sounds scarier than the phrase "social distancing", which is exactly what I was implying in my first comment.

rhhardin said...

Led, like cattle, to the laughter.

The problem with being serious as a goal.

Jeff said...

This is amazing. These scientists are exploring the molecular structure of the virus and designing a molecule, one atom at a time, to stop it from replicating. They think their work can lead to an inhaled drug that would, of course, go right into the lungs where the virus is and stop the infection.

We are fortunate to live in a time where this kind of thing is possible. It would not have been even twenty years ago.

JPS said...

Rhhardin,

I see what you did there.

Triangle Man said...

The 2.2 million expected deaths estimate comes from a very simple but reasonable early model. Based on early information about the transmission dynamics of the virus, it appeared that somewhere between 60-70% of the population could be infected before there were not enough susceptible people to sustain the epidemic ("herd immunity"). Assuming about 1% mortality among those infected, that gives overall mortality between 0.6% and 0.7% of the total population.

Browndog said...

What’s the Italian reporting formula?

In a nutshell:

Reporting deaths 'with' corona virus as death 'from' corona virus (autopsy). Traffic accidents, heart attacks, even murders...etc.

Big Mike said...

We had zero cases in my rural county for a long time, then a twenty year old chippie came in from outside and brought COVID-19 with her. She did a bit of traveling around until she was diagnosed, so now there are ten cases. Is a 20 year old in Gen Z? Or do I get to blame Millennials?

Howard said...

Unfortunately Tim there are plenty of people on the left who would be happy to see Trump proven wrong so that he could lose the election in November. There are just as many if not more lunatics on the left as there are on the right. Cue the infamous song played in reservoir dogs by the one hit wonder Stealers Wheel

rhhardin said...

Ride it like a cowboy is a reference to Dr Strangelove.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

SteveW,
Embrace the power of "and".

Howard said...

A 20 year old would be on the cusp Big Mike. It comes in 18-year blocks. 1946 to 1964, 1964 to 1982, 1982 to 2000.

Drago said...

Leland: "This week will tell a bit. After months of this virus being spread across the world, we have 34,000 deaths world-wide."

To believe there were only 34,000 deaths world-wide, you would have to absolutely believe China has provided accurate numbers on their deaths.

And since the dems/lefties seem to worship every utterance of the Chinese Communists and seek to transfer all responsibility for Chinese Communist actions onto Trump (big surprise), here's something to think about regarding just Wuhan province in China:

Reports of massive increases in the number of cremations and urns in 2019Q4 (56,000+) over cremations and urn delivery in 2019Q1 (14,000+).

That's an awfully big difference.

But, I guess I'll just go with what the dems and media tell me: China is a very very reputable source of information.

BTW, anybody see the Dutch have recalled 600,000 defective Chinese-made masks? That's on top of a half dozen other countries recalling hundreds of thousands of defective Chinese Communist made test kits.

But at least they aren't Trump!


rhhardin said...

Let's discuss the influence of 18th century comic fiction on Thomas Mann.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

AllenS Eventually, 2.2 million people will die of something.

We all have to die sometime. Just not all at once please.

The deaths of 2.2 million people should make some people happy who are bleating that there are too many people in the world. Why bring a child into this overcrowded dying from Carbon Dioxide, over industrialized world. The new Malthusianists who say resources are limited and so should people be.

There are some who are already rubbing their hands together in glee that millions...nay...maybe billions of people infecting Mother Earth Gaia will just die. Not them of course...other people. The global warmists are braying that this is a GOOD thing.

Others say, the old people are just a drag and a burden. Sacrifice them first. Ezekiel Emanuel hopes to die at age 75. Why wait? Do the world a favor Ezekiel.

A crisis really exposes the true colors of people. Some are heroes, sacrificing their own safety for the lives and safety of others. Some are actively rooting for death and destruction.

tim in vermont said...

"Whoever wins the political argument on Althouse and Facebook is immune to death.”

I plan to act in such a manner as to maximize the limited time I have here on Earth while not deluding myself with fantasies of magical protection or eternal life. But it’s not really about individuals, it’s about society, and the best thing I can do to help the situation, the thing that is in my power, is to not get sick and risk further overwhelming our health care system.

I am not especially frighted of a 1% or 2% chance of dying of the flu. But the difference between this and the regular flu is that our health care system is scaled to cope with that, and to give each victim the best fighting chance we can. Socialists are the ones who have wet dreams about having the power to decide who lives and who dies. They are the ones who spend so much “brainpower” planning to manage the scarcity that plan to produce.

Big Mike said...

@Jeff, don’t worry. The bureaucrats at FDA won’t okay it for use until there has been ay least a year-long trial that justifies their red tape, and CMS will label it “experimental” and the ineligible for Medicare reimbursement.

Howard said...

That's quite hopeful RH to think that Donald Trump has the mental capacity to reference the Stanley Kubrick movie

Michael K said...

it appeared that somewhere between 60-70% of the population could be infected before there were not enough susceptible people to sustain the epidemic

We need to keep the cruise ship experiment in mind. In a situation where maximum exposure by a susceptible population (half over 70) only 20% tested positive and only 8 died. The over 70 group were healthy enough to take a cruise, of course, but this is a pretty good model.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

rhhardin said...
I was out scything the lawn yesterday. Maybe this year it will be taken as an omen.


I would be careful with that line of thought. You may become a human sacrifice to the gods.

tim in vermont said...

"Let's discuss the influence of 18th century comic fiction on Thomas Mann.”

Close! I am re-reading Faust in my isolation, which has a lot of high quality comedy.

Howard said...

You got to admire Drago, he's always in character. Who does he think he is Daniel Day Lewis?

rhhardin said...

There's more choices than lifeboat ethics. There's fishing boat ethics, catamaran ethics, dinghy ethics.

JPS said...

Browndog,

That is not what they are doing. What is your source for that the Italians are classifying deaths from heart attacks, traffic accidents, or murder as COVID-19?

rhhardin said...

The guy with the scythe is the toucher. The touchee dies. It stands for harvesting.

Drago said...

Here's some examples of non-deplorables gobbling up whatever it is Xi wants to send them:

Jim Acosta

@Acosta
The US has just passed China, a country four times larger In population. https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/1243322169913901059 …

Jim Acosta✔@Acosta
CNN: The United States now has more coronavirus cases reported than any other country in the world.
11.8K 5:48 PM - Mar 26, 2020

Chris Hayes✔@chrislhayes
We are quite literally doing a worse job of containing the virus than any other country on earth.
274K 4:57 PM - Mar 27, 2020

We deplorables clearly have much to learn about the superiority of the Chinese Communists.

Perhaps thats why Sleepy Joe Biden made Out and Proud Maoist Anita Dunn the effective leader of his campaign.

That's one way to keep the Chinese Communist generals who gave your son $1.5B in "investment" dollars (wink wink) happy and content......

tim in vermont said...

We have lots of ubermenches here looking to shake society of the weak useless eaters.

tim in vermont said...

"What is your source for that the Italians are classifying deaths from heart attacks, traffic accidents, or murder as COVID-19?”

His source is that it helps him to sleep at night to believe it.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

Big Mike's report reminds me of a story out of Maine. A couple of guys from NJ rent a house on an island off the coast of Maine. The residents ask them to self quarantine because they just came from the NYC area. They told the locals to fuck right off.

The locals then sent a group of armed men to block their driveway with a tree they cut down.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Bill, Republic of Texas said...
I'm reading this as 100,000 is the outside most deaths in the US.
Anything less than that and Trump can call himself a genius and the greatest president ever.


Coming Attractions - from the greatest show on earth.

Sebastian said...

So a few weeks ago "real calculations" showed we should expect 11M without doing anything, now that's down to 2.2M. OK.

"1. The real number comes in well under 2.2m, the shelter-in-place program is offered as the reason, and the government (State and Federal) declares victory"

This. We had to do it! We spent $2 trillion and tanked the economy at a cost of several trillion more and devastated the lives of tens of millions, but we saved 2.1M lives!

Anyway, the issue was always to avoid major spikes in health care demand. Since the risk groups were clear, they should have been, and should still be, isolated rigorously. That can be done without undermining the whole economy. The "intervention" of distancing makes sense. That can be done without undermining the whole economy.

Of course, we still don't know even the basics: how many deaths with Wuhan are due to Wuhan; how many deaths due to Wuhan are excess deaths; what the true rate of complications and death is, particularly for healthy people under 50, and so on.

MayBee said...

Who isn’t? It’s just that pushing scary thoughts out of your head doesn’t make the source of them go away. Unlike a lot of people here seem to think. But if you can successfully deny what is going on, it is easier to sleep at night and feel superior to all of the “sheep” who think this is real.

I agree that pushing scary thoughts out doesn't make them go away, but this works two ways. Saying "You don't have to die so I can work" doesn't make the problem of people's livelihoods go away either.

We do better if we assume all of us have the same goal: A healthy America in all (or most) respects. We all see different ways of getting there. Asking questions about the best way to get there isn't wishing people dead. We all have our own fears, too.

rehajm said...

Their ignorance of the new case statistic makes me glad I don't vote leftie..

How do those 'journalist' lefties account for our competing with S Korea for the lowest in the world fatality rate despite all those cases? We must be doing something right- or by their logic, Trump must be doing something right...

Drago said...

"What is your source for that the Italians are classifying deaths from heart attacks, traffic accidents, or murder as COVID-19?”

tim in vermont: "His source is that it helps him to sleep at night to believe it."

Or maybe, just maybe, the Italians ARE in fact classifying death a bit differently than we might in the US.

Nooooo! That can't be! Who could say such a thing?

Well, these guys from the University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy for one:

"Italian doctors note high COVID-19 death rate, urge action"

"Italy could also have overestimated COVID-19–related deaths because of the different way its officials define it, classifying the death of anyone who tested positive for the disease as related to the coronavirus, regardless of whether they had underlying illnesses that could have independently led to death.

A chart review of 355 COVID-19 patients who died in Italy revealed a high percentage with underlying diseases that could have increased their risk of death independently of the infection, the authors said."


I apologize for posting that, as it is clearly a Nazi-like act.

gspencer said...

"x killed, tops, depending on the breaks"

Shouting Thomas said...

We have lots of ubermenches here looking to shake society of the weak useless eaters.

Could be that that just happens and that there is no intent or blame involved.

I was taught Catholic fatalism from early childhood. It's a great source of peace of mind. I'm not looking for somebody to blame for my death.

Drago said...

ARM: "Coming Attractions - from the greatest show on earth."

We won't really know what is actually happening or going to happen, according to ARM, until Beijing, Tehran and the CIA clue us in.

Let's hope its very soon!

Howard said...

"I'm not saying we won't get our hair mussed"

Drago said...

Sebastian: "Of course, we still don't know even the basics: how many deaths with Wuhan are due to Wuhan; how many deaths due to Wuhan are excess deaths; what the true rate of complications and death is, particularly for healthy people under 50, and so on."

Careful with talk like that around here........

Plus, your musings have not been pre-approved by Beijing.....

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

The odd thing here is that the conclusion most consistent with the stated beliefs of the most hard-core Trumpists here, that the plague is a nothingburger, is that Trump has already failed. They should have been the Chicken Littles, and then when things turned out better than they predicted they could have lavished praise on the great leader.

narciso said...

they don't look at the last column on the chart, which puts the toll in proportion, they have the attention span of ferret on double expresso, and they are going full mueller candle on Pelosi, see todays post, china and iran, hid their numbers, as much as possible,

robother said...

Ronan, ronan, ronan, keep those dogies ronan, Rawhide!

Drago said...

Howard: ""I'm not saying we won't get our hair mussed"

Failure to accept Chinese Communist propaganda as truth, as ARM does, now means that one is okay with a hundred million dead.

Well, given that Sham-peachment III, Return of Schiff requires a narrative to set that table, I guess it was inevitable.

tim maguire said...

Shouting Thomas said...
Just so I understand this, let me summarize...

Whoever wins the political argument on Althouse and Facebook is immune to death.


Yes, those are the usual rules--the known laws of biology and physics typically wait to see how it plays out on the internet.

walter said...

A virologist suggests mutations less likely

Bob Boyd said...

Meade said...
.

Oh no. Still?

Drago said...

ARM: "The odd thing here is that the conclusion most consistent with the stated beliefs of the most hard-core Trumpists here, that the plague is a nothingburger,...."

More rewriting of history will be required in order to properly set the table for Sham-peachment III.

ARM and Howard appear up to the task.

JPS said...

tim in vermont,

Well, I don’t know. I was curious whether it’s the telephone-game version of what the scientific advisor to the Italian health minister wrote and said, maybe a week or so ago. He was asked about Italy’s very high fatality rate compared to other countries, and said that in addition to having many more old people, and the selection bias in testing when you don’t have enough tests and have to prioritize, maybe the doctors here versus Germany are making different calls on whether an already-weakened patient died of Coronavirus or of their preexisting condition.

It is entirely true that if they have a patient who’s hospitalized with cancer, was stable, then presents with viral pneumonia and dies, That patient is counted as a Coronavirus fatality. *Might* it have been the cancer that really killed him? Sure. Would he probably have survived the virus if it weren’t for the cancer? Of course. Could one in good faith attribute differently? Yes.

Now, I read a classic of a blog post, linked here awhile back, that quoted the advisor, accurately, then said (in the blogger’s words): You know what this means? That means you could get hit by a car in Italy and they’ll count you as a Covid-19 fatality! The blogger just made shit up, got outraged about it, and normally serious people took him seriously.

And I keep running into this, that the Italian doctors must be either profoundly stupid or incompetent or incurious, or they’re trying to make this all out to be much worse than it is.

Left Bank of the Charles said...

The Italian death rate as applied to the U.S. would be 58,000 deaths. Of course, the Italian deaths could still double or triple, with is roughly the 100,000 to 200,000 range Trump is setting as his benchmark. That’s a high number, representing failure. The current German death rate would translate to 2200 in the U.S., but we’ve already passed that.

narciso said...

Italy also had the faulty equipment, along with the Netherlands, that china sent them, part of the spring surprise, that the great Yellowstone blog post, noted,

Drago said...

JPS: "And I keep running into this, that the Italian doctors must be either profoundly stupid or incompetent or incurious, or they’re trying to make this all out to be much worse than it is."

I just think there are some variations in how those things are handled, in the same way many, if not most or all, other nations calculate infant mortality.

In the US, we will use extraordinary medical measures on severely premature babies to try and save them and if we unfortunately fail in that, we still include that occurrence in with our stats. Needless to say, that is not the case elsewhere. This astonishing degree of effort ironically inflates US infant mortality numbers compared to elsewhere where measures such as that would never be taken.

Of course, I don't have Beijing's full approval to have posted that, so I hope ARM will allow a little leeway here.

Amadeus 48 said...

"We are not cattle."

Are you sure about that?

tcrosse said...

The London Times offers advice for Couples in self-isolation

Shouting Thomas said...

When I visited my late wife's family in the Philippines, they subjected me to this test.

The last day of my visit I was expected to slaughter the little piglet for the feast. The family was middle class by Filipino standards, but poor by U.S. standards. They bought the little piglet and kept it in a sty in the back yard. They told me that when the time came I'd have to chase down the piglet in the mud and shit and cut its throat. That was the running joke during my entire visit.

They let me off the hook when the day arrived and only demanded that I cut the poor animal's throat once the young men had trussed up and prepared the pig for the bamboo spit.

Little did they know that I was raised in rural Illinois, worked on farms and had slaughtered animals routinely when I was a kid. I looked in the poor baby's eyes, asked for forgiveness, and cut its throat.

The test was designed to determine whether I was a spoiled brat white American who thought he was above dealing out death and getting his hands dirty in mud, blood and shit.

tim in vermont said...

JPS, You have it exactly right according to my understanding. If I have high blood pressure, I could still live for decades, and to suggest that if complications of it caused the virus kill me means that the virus didn’t kill me? That’s wishful thinking, worse, a belief that those with compromised health deserve to die.

Drago said...

narciso: "Italy also had the faulty equipment, along with the Netherlands, that china sent them, part of the spring surprise, that the great Yellowstone blog post, noted,"

I wouldn't repeat that if I were you. ARM was going gangbusters on the ChiCom propaganda just days ago. And he did it over and over and over again.

I don't think he wants to hear all about how it was all just a big show and a farce and a CYA PR move on Xi's part and likely got more people killed since there's really no direct way, yet, to blame it on Trump.

Shouting Thomas said...

This is what occupies ARM's intellectual idiot mind:

The odd thing here is that the conclusion most consistent with the stated beliefs of the most hard-core Trumpists here, that the plague is a nothingburger, is that Trump has already failed.

We are knee deep in intellectual idiots like ARM.

This is what he thinks is important. He'll be here for 15 hours today mulling this bit of idiocy over and over.

Amadeus 48 said...

"The current German death rate would translate to 2200 in the U.S., but we’ve already passed that..."

Yes, but the Germans may overtake and pass us, too. They got a later start on dying. The question should be always, where do we go from here?

jnseward said...

Why is there a news blackout on the subject of hydroxychloroquine?

tim in vermont said...

Isn’t Schiff the guy who was trying to remove Trump from office at the time that Schiff is accusing Trump of not focusing on this?

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Ahh, the sweet smell of flop sweat in the morning. The Great Leader is deviating from the path, the planets are in motion, and soon, a 100,000 will be too small a figure to reveal the true greatness of the Great Leader.


robother said...

"Weren’t you wondering why Alpha Orion has dimmed over the past couple months?"

Bad omens everywhere: Yesterday on the Interwebs, saw the headline "Mysterious Gas Escaping Uranus." Could bear to check it out.

Darrell said...

If you attribute EVERY death to SARS-CoV-2 you can build a pretty big number. You could do a lot with that politically.

walter said...

Tim,
Opinion piece at Wapoo behind paywall
Let’s be honest. Impeachment hurt Trump’s response to coronavirus

Drago said...

ARM: "Ahh, the sweet smell of flop sweat in the morning."

Indeed.

New polls out showing even higher ratings for Trump amongst blacks and hispanics as well as solid overall ratings from the public at large.

In case you hadn't noticed ARM, thats why Nancy and the dems openly launched Sham-peachment III just yesterday.

It was only 24 hours ago. Have you already forgotten?

And I am happy to report that a couple of little Pelosi-mischief maker impeachment-setup items in the Relief Bill that declared certain HHS and other executive branch employees to be at the beck and call of Congress and report to them has been quashed by Executive Signing Statements.

Looks like you guys will have to conjure up another Ciaramella/Vindman deal on the FDA/CDC/ArmyCorpsofEngineers/HHS side of the house as your next move.

Michael K said...

Ahh, the sweet smell of flop sweat in the morning. The Great Leader is deviating from the path, the planets are in motion, and soon, a 100,000 will be too small a figure to reveal the true greatness of the Great Leader.

The craziness of the left is well illustrated by this. Wishing for a big death toll to get revenge on this man who beat Hillary, the really Great Leader.

tim in vermont said...

ARM continues his Tiananmen Rose act.

I wonder how many US sailors really gave up the fight because of Tokyo Rose? Not many, I am betting.

Darrell said...

ARM has never been right,
What makes anyone think he is right this time? If he were a clock, he'd be missing hands.

JPS said...

Drago, I’ve been trying to answer your 8:05 but my comments keep hanging up. Hopefully they don’t come through in quadruplicate.

I agree with your comment, and the article you linked. Nothing outrageous there. There’s just a hell of a difference between attributing “gray-area” cases to COVID-19, which the Italians are doing (and probably under a less exclusive definition than the Germans’), and attributing to COVID-19 deaths of anyone who tested positive but was manifestly killed by something else, which they are not.

Drago said...

Michael K: "The craziness of the left is well illustrated by this. Wishing for a big death toll to get revenge on this man who beat Hillary, the really Great Leader."

Almost right Michael.

What ARM is hoping for is a big death toll IN THE US and that we actually all buy into the ChiCom's now transparent attempts to cover up a massively larger death toll than they want the world to know about.

So it's a 2-sided ARM strategy: inflate the lies to make the US look bad while inflating the lies to make China look fantastic.

Big Mike said...

But we are not cattle.

People who vote Democrat certainly are.

tim in vermont said...

α Orion is now β Orion, make of that what you will. The Dog Star still shines bright though.

Meade said...

"Eventually, 2.2 million people will die of something."

Eventually, 2.2 million people will drown prematurely in their own body fluids.

Eventually, 2.2 million people will die prematurely on ventilators.

Eventually, 2.2 million people will die prematurely of septic shock.

Eventually, 2.2 million people will die prematurely of cardiomyopathy.

Eventually, 2.2 million people will die prematurely of multi-organ failure.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Michael K said...
Wishing for a big death toll to get revenge on this man who beat Hillary


Reading comprehension - one of the first things to go.

Drago said...

JPS: "I agree with your comment, and the article you linked. Nothing outrageous there. There’s just a hell of a difference between attributing “gray-area” cases to COVID-19, which the Italians are doing (and probably under a less exclusive definition than the Germans’), and attributing to COVID-19 deaths of anyone who tested positive but was manifestly killed by something else, which they are not."

Exactly.

I'm not blaming Italian doctors for this BTW.

Drago said...

ARM: "Reading comprehension - one of the first things to go."

That explains part of your ChiCom "suckuppery".

Unfortunately, it doesn't explain it all.....

Mark said...

"Mark": Don't hold your breath for those who have insisted on lower death toll to admit their mistake.

Don't hold your breath for bad faith commenters to stop the hateful ad hominems and continuing their selfish destructive partisan narrative.

tim in vermont said...

It’s always been ARM’s position that the benighted, meth addled, US workforce is not up to the task and that sending our jobs to China was our only hope to make our economy “competitive.” He has been pushing ChiCom propaganda here for years.

tim in vermont said...

"Reading comprehension - one of the first things to go.”

Plaudits to you for self awareness then.

Triangle Man said...

@Meade what is your point?

Is it we're all going to die someday of something so we shouldn't do anything to avoid dying from this avoidable thing? Because that's what it seems like.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Tim in Vermont That’s wishful thinking, worse, a belief that those with compromised health deserve to die.

Those with compromised health are more LIKELY to die. Die from their existing condition. Die with the Corona Virus added like nasty icing on the cake.

This is just reality. They don't "deserve" it. Sick people are likely to die. Older and already compromised are even more likely.

Sad but true.

narciso said...

but we were a different people then, see how Vietnam turned out, although it's arguable if it was waged in the right way from the diem coup onward,

Michael K said...

ARM should change his avatar to Chairman Mao.

tim in vermont said...

Not to mention that there appears to be a naked eye comet on the way. That should be good for a laugh.

Drago said...

tim in vermont: "Not to mention that there appears to be a naked eye comet on the way."

What?!

How did that naked eye get up there?

Howard said...

None of this is a real surprise. As soon as the Cubs won the world series you knew that we were doomed

Big Mike said...

Yesterday on the Interwebs, saw the headline "Mysterious Gas Escaping Uranus."

Is that because you ate cabbage left over from St. Patrick's day?

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

tim in vermont said...
It’s always been ARM’s position that the benighted, meth addled, US workforce is not up to the task and that sending our jobs to China was our only hope to make our economy “competitive.” He has been pushing ChiCom propaganda here for years.


This inversion of the truth is comparable to your recent inversion of sex.

rhhardin said...

Gemini - Mar 30, 2020 - Have you been planning to travel, perhaps for business, Gemini? You might receive word that your trip has to be postponed, which could be disappointing. However, bear in mind that this is only a delay, not a denial. All signs are that you'll make that trip, so don't panic. Think of it as more time in which to prepare. You'll want to be thoroughly ready before you go. Enjoy your day.

tim in vermont said...

"Sad but true.”

So there is no reason to make attempts to prevent early death if, you know, it inconveniences anybody else? That sounds remarkably like that lady who sang out about how incredibly free she felt after she aborted her baby! Here in America we fight for people’s lives. In a normal flu season, people die, sure but we fight for them. Save many so that they can die another, later day.

Bob Boyd said...

How did that naked eye get up there?

And why did it take its clothes off?

walter said...

Blogger Triangle Man,
Seems pretty clear he's saying dying of COVID is a shitty way to go.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Remind me again, who is the leader of the Senate and where did his money come from?

jaydub said...

"The current German death rate would translate to 2200 in the U.S., but we’ve already passed that."

Only if the Germans and Americans categorize the cause of those deaths the same way, which they don't. Germans normally categorize deaths of those with severe "underlying conditions" as caused by the severe underlying condition, even though the deceased had the corona virus at the time of death. Their point is, if the virus would not have caused the death if the patient had not had the underlying condition, then the cause-in-fact of the death was the underlying condition and not the virus. Of course, this categorization is not helpful if your purpose is to dramatize the US death rate for political purposes, i.e., "statistics lie and liars use statistics."

Original Mike said...

"α Orion is now β Orion"

That's not how it works.

tim in vermont said...

"This inversion of the truth is comparable to your recent inversion of sex.”

Like I said before, just search on ARM and “competitive.”

Fernandinande said...

food production and distribution decrease

It can't happen here
It can't happen here
I'm telling you, my dear
That it can't happen here
Because I been checkin' it out, baby
I checked it out a couple a times

Who could imagine
That they would freak out in Minnesota...
(Mi-mi-mi-mi-mi-mi-mi-mi-mi-mi-mi-mi-mi
Mi-mi-mi-mi-mi-mi-mi-mi-mi-mi-mi-mi . . . )
...
Who could imagine
That they would freak out in Washington, D.C

They knew it couldn't happen here
They were so sure it couldn't happen here
But.

Shouting Thomas said...

ARM, the intellectual idiot, really seems utterly convinced that whether 100,000 or 2.2 million die will be determined by who wins the argument over who should be president.

I produced videos of preludes, postludes and hymns for online streaming services yesterday. Got down on my knees and prayed with people, many of whom I know disagree with me about almost everything.

We were just praying for comfort, forgiveness of one another and to express our communal grief.

I recommend this to you ARM. It's the best way to deal with the fear of death and the need for a scapegoat that is overwhelming you.

Big Mike said...

Joe Diffie has officially departed the Third Rock From the Sun.

Howard said...

I know there is nothing that can be done to change the denihilist belief system of a Chinese hoax to destroy Trump.

However maybe you could think that this is a good trial run. A shakedown Cruise... maybe we don't get a high and tight but it's still a haircut. Use the real world action and results to prepare for the next one. Try to be optimistic, maybe this will get you borders that are tight enough

Original Mike said...

"Comet ATLAS continues to brighten much faster than expected. Some predictions for its peak brightness now border on the absurd,”

A lot of that going around lately.

Drago said...

ARM: "This inversion of the truth is comparable to your recent inversion of sex."

Your gleeful and mindless parroting of every propaganda lie out of Beijing over the last several months is a matter of public record.

And isn't going away.

Nor should it.

While courageous Chinese doctors and activists were being rounded up and "disappeared" and thousands were dying in Wuhan, some reportedly after authorities were welding the doors to their apartments shut so they couldn't get out, you were here, like some sort of Current Day Walter Duranty, praising those same ChiCom's.

Over and over and over again.

Let me guess ARM: You have been over to China and seen The Medical Future...And It Works!

Yancey Ward said...

"I'm reading this as 100,000 is the outside most deaths in the US.

Anything less than that and Trump can call himself a genius and the greatest president ever.

Consider a bad flu season has 60-80,000 deaths."


Oh, Bill, it is far, far worse than that for the Trump haters- he is explicitly and directly taking their head-on-fire predictions at face value- that is the bar, not the 100,000- he is setting the bar of judgment at 2.2 million, and there isn't a fucking thing his opponents can do about it either. When the total COVID-19 deaths in the US turn out to be far, far under even the 100,000 number, Trump is going to dance on the graves of his political opponents.

Drago said...

ARM: "Remind me again, who is the leader of the Senate and where did his money come from?"

Elaine Chao and Mitch McConnell were the recipients of an inheritance from Elaine Chao's mother upon her death in 2007.

ARM, I'm sorry these facts that have already been told to you are happening to you.

narciso said...

Julia ioffe, would feel shame, if she were capable,

tim in vermont said...

"That's not how it works.”

School me then.

Howard said...

If we can save delicate old people now using institutional controls and timely application of novel medicine, then maybe the next one that is so bad that it'll kill the healthy people between the ages of 25 and 50, we will be better prepared to stave off that Holocaust level of disaster.

I take it none of you deniers were Navy Corpsmen.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Tim from Trannville, I have been saying that the US has become increasingly noncompetitive in manufacturing, like everyone else with a brain. But, unlike blowhards like you, I have also been doing something about it. Specifically, working with the local schools to improve math and technical education.

tim in vermont said...

"I know there is nothing that can be done to change the denihilist belief system of a Chinese hoax to destroy Trump.”

Try to follow what is actually being said Howard, it might raise the quality of your zingers.

Spiros said...

Adam Kucharski, a mathematician at the London School of Hygiene, has a nice twitter thread describing the importance of modeling. He notes the obsession over population level estimates. Obviously the models that predicted millions of dead (heck even tens of millions) are wrong. But we shouldn't lose sight of all the other information we got from modeling and its importance in formulating a response to Covid 19...

This was an interesting corner of the science world that we got to peek into for a few weeks.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Tim in Vermont So there is no reason to make attempts to prevent early death if, you know, it inconveniences anybody else?

Did I say that? Or did you imagine that I said that? The voices in your head must be getting louder.

We need to try to save and heal the ill. We need to try to prevent others from becoming ill...hence the social distancing in effect now. However, we also need to face the reality, that we cannot save everyone. Some people will die despite all the efforts expended.

Sad but true.

The question is how much harm are we willing to inflict while trying to stave off this current spread of this version of the virus? How much harm and how long lasting. Will the survivors thank us?

narciso said...

can some one send this idiot back to his village

Original Mike said...

The Bayer designation of a star doesn't change. Once alpha, always alpha.

Howard said...

ARM: Auntie Tim needs to keep his deplorable credentials in order to spread sanity to that side of the aisle.

Automatic_Wing said...

The importance of modeling is mainly in keeping modelers employed. I can't see that all the computer modeling efforts have really added much to our understanding of the virus.

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...

Howard said...
Auntie Tim needs to keep his deplorable credentials in order to spread sanity to that side of the aisle.


Not sure it's working, but anything for the cause.

Meade said...

Triangle Man said...
@Meade what is your point?

Is it we're all going to die someday of something so we shouldn't do anything to avoid dying from this avoidable thing? Because that's what it seems like.
------------------------

I was trying to riff off the fatalism of AllenS's comment at 6:47AM. To be clear, I don't agree with his fatalism or his callous flippant disregard for avoidable agonizing deaths of millions or thousands or hundreds or tens or one American.

tim maguire said...

Amadeus 48 said... the Germans may overtake and pass us, too. They got a later start on dying.

True of so many of the comparisons--that's today's answer. Yesterday's answer may have been different. Tomorrow's answer may be different. People who try to limit our agility by even now playing the gotcha game should be strung up from lampposts.

Shouting Thomas said...

The search for a scapegoat intensifies.

People die. Who woulda thunk it?

The most important thing we can do now is identify the scapegoat. How much more obvious can that be?

Because... uh...

tim in vermont said...

That Aunty Trump thing sure bothers you ARM. Are you maybe in denial about something else?

"I have been saying that the US has become increasingly noncompetitive in manufacturing”

We all know what you have been saying, ARM. We have all read it over and over. But I am glad to see you put it in more reasonable terms today. You have also been advocating that we needed a health system closer to that of Italy, since we spend way too much on health care and it’s making us “non competitive.”

What I have been saying is that maybe we need to keep some of those jobs here that we have been shipping off to China that the kids who would rather not pay attention in math class can still do that pay decent wages. You have maintained that those jobs are lost to places like China forever.

Also you have no problem forcing down wages through massive immigration, even though we don’t need the workers here and the only purpose of this immigration is to force down wages and win elections for Democrats.

tim in vermont said...

"he most important thing we can do now is identify the scapegoat”

That’s how religious people think, thanks for sharing.

tim in vermont said...

"he Bayer designation of a star doesn't change. Once alpha, always alpha.”

Is figurative speech hard for you to follow? You don’t find it at all interesting that the former brightest star in one of the most prominent constellations is now the second brightest star?

tim in vermont said...

Rigel is the big dog now Orion!

Tommy Duncan said...

Drago said:

"What ARM is hoping for is a big death toll IN THE US and that we actually all buy into the ChiCom's now transparent attempts to cover up a massively larger death toll than they want the world to know about."

On one hand, China is hiding the actual death toll to avoid the stigma of their awful handling of the pandemic and the deaths they inflicted on the rest of the world. On the other hand, China fears the economic consequences of being perceived as a disease center. Who wants to open a package or shipment from the epicenter of the Wuhan virus? So they lie.

stevew said...

"The question is how much harm are we willing to inflict while trying to stave off this current spread of this version of the virus? How much harm and how long lasting. "

I don't see a good way to measure this. We are doing what we think is best to slow and stop the spread of the virus and death. We are exacting an economic price on many of our fellow citizens; we won't know how much of a cost until it is over.

Thus we are trading negative economic consequences for fewer deaths; the former of which can be recovered from.

I don't like it, seems unfair to those paying the price of lost jobs, wealth, housing, etc. But I don't see how Trump and the various state Governors have an alternative.

Original Mike said...

"Is figurative speech hard for you to follow? You don’t find it at all interesting that the former brightest star in one of the most prominent constellations is now the second brightest star?"

Lighten up, dude. And for the record, Betelgeuse is rarely brighter than Rigel.

Original Mike said...

"Of the 88 modern constellations, there are at least 30 in which "Alpha" is not the brightest star, and four of those lack an alpha star altogether." - Wiki

n.n said...

@tim

I suggest sacrificing a lamb on the altar.


Or a planned baby in the womb, or, if sufficiently evolved, in the chamber. Modern "secular" religions and parakeets.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

the fatalism of AllenS's comment at 6:47AM

I am most certainly not speaking for AllenS, but fatalism can come easier, or more naturally, to people who have been in situations where their life and the lives of those around them are in danger every moment of every day in a situation that they had no choice in creating. Watching people you love and know die. Vietnam War...for example.

You either become fatalistic in your approach to life....or you go crazy. Source: ex husband: Vietnam vet and many of his friends who also came out alive. Many many more did not survive Damaged survivors; some of them. But alive.

People who have lived shelter, safe, comfortable lives may not be able to understand.

It doesn't mean that the fatalist doesn't care for other people or wants others to die. Actually, the contrary. Fatalism is a way to look at life that, mentally, protects you.

Having had a near death experience several years ago, I too tend to look at life in a more fatalistic way.

tim in vermont said...

Maybe we both should lighten up, but I have been wound up since Achilles called something I learned in a discrete math class 40 years ago “ChiCom propaganda.” Maybe I should lay off anymore coffee and get back to. re-reading Faust.

Original Mike said...

I didn't mean it to be confrontational. Sorry. I just like talking astronomy.

Original Mike said...

Thanks for the heads up on the comet.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

"The question is how much harm are we willing to inflict while trying to stave off this current spread of this version of the virus? How much harm and how long lasting. "

stevew I don't see a good way to measure this. ................
I don't like it, seems unfair to those paying the price of lost jobs, wealth, housing, etc. But I don't see how Trump and the various state Governors have an alternative.


Me either. I don't like it and don't know that there is an alternative. We don't know the ramifications of what we are doing.

My point is that we need to consider the longer lasting result that will be around long after the Cornona Virus and act accordingly. This mad rush to DO SOMETHING..DO ANYTHING!!! is not rational.

Yancey Ward said...

AllenS's comment is the very antithesis of fatalism. Do some of you really not get it, or is it the case that you don't want to?

Yancey Ward said...

It is a small wonder some of your ancestors ever left the trees and caves to search for food on the plains of Africa.

tim in vermont said...

"Having had a near death experience several years ago, I too tend to look at life in a more fatalistic way. “

I have a higher risk of death each year from an aortic dissection than I have from catching the ChiCom flu, but that’s me, my death, which I have long come to terms with. Not other people’s deaths for me to cavalierly shrug away. I don’t know what you are advocating for? "Let’s pretend this isn’t happening and let the chips fall where they may?” If a you were in the street and a car came around a curve, would you say “Oh, I was going to die sometime...” or would you get out of the way?

The argument should be about minimizing the death toll from this disaster, not finding the best philosophical stance to accept the deaths even if it means a far higher number of them.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...


ARM should change his avatar to Chairman Mao.

he's not gonna make it with anyone anyhow

tim in vermont said...

Yancey, I understand the boys over in string theory have been sort of stuck lately, why don’t you head over to the physics department and help them out with your rhetorical math and super precise hunches.

tim in vermont said...

I really appreciate what AllenS did back in the day, we all do, except maybe Cook and ARM, but this isn’t the same thing.

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