Althouse: At the Sunrise Café...

March 29, 2020

At the Sunrise Café...

E8F67574-6295-41FE-B1A6-6C18B779E468_1_201_a

... you can talk all night.

110 comments:

madAsHell said...: Sunrise?

I'm two hours behind you, and I have yet to see a sunset!!; 3/29/20, 8:48 PM
mockturtle said...: How many of you are old enough to remember, as I do, when the PRC was called 'Red China' and Taiwan was called China?; 3/29/20, 8:52 PM
Ken B said...: Mockturtle
I deny that I can remover that!; 3/29/20, 8:54 PM
Narr said...: Both of Stendahl's great novels are Bildungsroman (NTTAWWT), so part of a tradition of European lit that was already established when they were written.

Perhaps they are great reading in French--I will never know, personally--but I don't see that Stendahl is more worthy of attention or classic status than Hugo, or Balzac, or Zola, to name some I've read (in translation).

Hugo did Waterloo (badly) in Les Mis and Zola rather better with Sedan in The Debacle.

Narr
Francophilic, for a 'Merkin; 3/29/20, 8:55 PM
Ken B said...: Movement on chloroquine, which I hope means something. We still haven’t seen the results of the double blinds, but I wonder if someone has seen preliminary numbers.; 3/29/20, 8:56 PM
Jersey Fled said...: I wonder if we would have ever won WWII with the press that we have today.; 3/29/20, 9:00 PM
Ken B said...: My French reading is a bit halting but I can generally do it with a dictionary to hand. Balzac I found hard. Flaubert harder. Maupassant was easier, although he does send one to the dictionary often enough.
Maupassant even in English is wonderful. He is my favorite writer.
Voltaire's Candide was noticeably easier.; 3/29/20, 9:01 PM
Ken B said...: “I wonder if we would have ever won WWII with the press that we have today.”

Well if we did we'd never have heard about it.; 3/29/20, 9:06 PM
traditionalguy said...: Kemoy and Matsu were the big issues once. What ever happened to them.

Boomers are still interested in how totally stupid the best and the brightest were for attacking the Vietnamese when it was a no win Asian land war that we could have easily been withdrawn from all the way up to the summer of 65. McNamara was the biggest idiot of all time.LBJ was doing whatever he was told because of his part in killing a President. And no one was punished except our generation of youth which were thrown away.; 3/29/20, 9:08 PM
narciso said...: Well without harriman (who some suspected of being a soviet spy) pushing away john richardson the diem coup couldnt have happened.

An interesting exercise in blowback is mccarrys tears of autumn; 3/29/20, 9:13 PM
narciso said...: Where paul christopher his version of bond ttacks the assasination back to that event.; 3/29/20, 9:17 PM
Big Mike said...: Question for everyone: where are the dead homeless people? Are homeless people dying and no one cares enough to report it? Or are they not dying in any numbers that differ significantly from normal times? If the latter, what are they doing that conveys immunity? Should we all be taking crystal meth?; 3/29/20, 9:20 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @Big Mike,

I pick this one - " Or are they not dying in any numbers that differ significantly from normal times?"

The homeless encampments still remain in SF, Oakland & Berkeley. I guess nobody wants to shut them down.; 3/29/20, 9:25 PM
Bob Boyd said...: where are the dead homeless people?

Don't they also wind up in hospitals one way or another?; 3/29/20, 9:27 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Trump approval ratings up! .; 3/29/20, 9:29 PM
Tommy Duncan said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 3/29/20, 9:30 PM
Big Mike said...: @Bay Area Guy, I assume that the homeless in S. F. are are not maintaining social distancing nor washing their hands with any increased frequency (or even at all). Why isn’t COVID-19 killing them by the score?; 3/29/20, 9:31 PM
Bob Boyd said...: Pretty good short piece.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/27/pandemic_brings_out_the_best_and_the_worst_in_the_media_142791.html; 3/29/20, 9:32 PM
Bob Boyd said...: Here's another

https://datechguyblog.com/2020/03/24/its-okay-to-blame-china/; 3/29/20, 9:34 PM
Tommy Duncan said...: I was listening a Pointer Sisters recording of “Save The Bones For Henry Jones” today and a light bulb turned on.

In the Indiana Jones movie series the hero is named “Henry Jones Jr.” (AKA “Indiana Jones”). Jones is an archeologist, a bone collector.

A screen writer with a wry sense of humor planted that connection in my plain view and I never saw it before.

Duh.

Save The Bones For Henry Jones –Pointer Sisters

Save The Bones For Henry Jones –Nat King Cole / Johnny Mercer; 3/29/20, 9:36 PM
320Busdriver said...: The ER doc from NYC who appeared on Tuckers show, on Friday I think, when asked if he was on any meds to protect against excessive exposure to covid patients said he was taking Plaquenil(hydroxychloroquine).I pray that all these brave HC workers are able to access that if they desire.

Seems like US corona deaths on Sunday were 1/2 of the Sat. total. Hope that continues. NYC is getting wrecked.; 3/29/20, 9:39 PM
madAsHell said...: and Taiwan was called China?

I remember Taiwan being called Formosa. There may have also been a communist China vs. China, but the memory is vague, and likely contrived.; 3/29/20, 9:42 PM
narciso said...: It was known as the republic of china.; 3/29/20, 9:43 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: Gulf Shores Alabama is an amazing location.

Zero confirmed Covid China 19 Virus.

Thank God.

The people were gracious and inquisitive. Relaxed in ways, but ever attentive to tourists, in a kind, unobtrusive way.

I thank them all.; 3/29/20, 9:45 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @Big Mike,

"Why isn’t COVID-19 killing them by the score?"

Because in the US, it isn't killing very many folks - despite the sensational headlines. The current rate is 7.6 deaths per Million. San Francisco has 750,000 people. So, one would expect, at the current rate, 5 deaths in the whole city. This is without vaccines, without testing, without FDA-approved treatments.

So what implication do we draw from that?; 3/29/20, 9:49 PM
gilbar said...: where are the dead homeless people?
I heard someone (jokingly?) postulate that having a blood alcohol level must be defense against the covid-19

I laughed when i heard it; but now, i'm starting to Really wonder
HAS someone done a demographic for alcohol use?
On the one hand, Lots of Italians died; and Italians like wine, right?
On the other hand, it was Lots of OLD Italians, and do (Those) Old Italians, drink wine?
Also, How MUCH wine? Also, How MUCH ripple and thunderbird DO our homeless drink?

It really Really REALLY seems like the homeless camps would be the PERFECT place to grow viruses, but they don't seem to be succumbing like i'd think; 3/29/20, 9:51 PM
Marc in Eugene said...: Oregon is letting drivers pump their own gas through some date in April. Why this is up to the state chief fire marshal, I don't know. Unsurprisingly, people are fussing about this. In any other circumstances there would be general rejoicing, except among gas station employees, but who knows how many fewer viruses one is going to pick up this way, or more.; 3/29/20, 9:52 PM
walter said...: Big Mike,
Maybe exposure to the elements?
Coronavirus and the Sun a Lesson from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic
Oh..and according to Mexico, the poor are immune.; 3/29/20, 9:53 PM
gilbar said...: BAG said... So, one would expect, at the current rate...
so, you'd expect what, 50 for New York City Metro?
and they've got what? a thousand?; 3/29/20, 9:54 PM
NYC JournoList said...: NYC new cases are no longer growing exponentially. As of about 4 days ago it seems ro be leveling off at 2,500-3,000 new cases a day.
https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary.pdf; 3/29/20, 9:57 PM
madAsHell said...: I heard someone (jokingly?) postulate that having a blood alcohol level must be defense against the covid-19

See Cholera, monks, and beer. Chrichton's "Andromeda Strain".

All kidding aside....I think it will be the methamphetamine!.; 3/29/20, 9:57 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @gilbarr,

Are you asking an intelligent question or trying to argue something?; 3/29/20, 9:57 PM
Lawrence Person said...: Joe Rogan Interviews Epidemiologist Michael Osterholm on the Wuhan Coronavirus.; 3/29/20, 9:59 PM
Ken B said...: Infection travels in social networks. This disease came first from passengers from China and other infected places. Few homeless travel to Wuhan, or socialize with people who own villas in Italy.; 3/29/20, 9:59 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: Having a guide who has rented a month-long lease for 6 years, having to change from a spot with water views 100 yards away to a $$$ condo I see it all.

Perfect beach property turned into a view of only a new development.

I see sides. Many do.

All of us see the USA local/county/state governments as enemies of freedom sadly.

We have like King hoped, and we are all now in Birmingham's Jail. Speaking King-like.

Especially Rachel Jeantal. She is a profit who told all y'all.

This is a link I doubt many appreciate, although given what I assume given they ought.; 3/29/20, 10:02 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: California has 39 Million people and 131 deaths.

So, that works out to 3.3 deaths per million people.

Not to be callous to those 131 people, but - I know it sounds crazy - that's not an epidemic in California. That's a small blip.

And, no vaccines, no FDA-approved drugs, very little testing, and winter is officially over.

What does that tell you?; 3/29/20, 10:04 PM
narciso said...: And she might not be the right jeantel, martins girl friend.; 3/29/20, 10:05 PM
Rory said...: "It was known as the republic of china."

I recall (late 1960s) Red China or Communist China, and Nationalist China. Peoples Republic came into style with ping pong diplomacy.; 3/29/20, 10:06 PM
chickelit said...: What does that tell you?

That social distancing works, just like the earth would cool if we stopped burning fossil fuels.

(ducks); 3/29/20, 10:11 PM
chickelit said...: Oh..and according to Mexico, the poor are immune.

Blessed are the poor for they shall inherit California.; 3/29/20, 10:14 PM
mockturtle said...: Bay Area Guy, you seem insistent on beating that same dead horse. Did it die of COVID-19? Protect yourself! ;-); 3/29/20, 10:17 PM
Jersey Fled said...: Social distancing doesn't work once you have the virus.; 3/29/20, 10:19 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Well, Mock, all I can say is that you are normally astute on most issues, but on this one, you've morphed into Inga.

We will be friends again as we get closer to the election:); 3/29/20, 10:21 PM
Jersey Fled said...: Read somewhere that herd immunity kicks in at a point maybe as low as 30%. I think this was what the UK was shooting for in one of their early strategies.

With all of the unidentified cases that are apparently out there, wonder where are right now.

Also, I think we can put that exponential growth think to bed now. As it relates to deaths that is.; 3/29/20, 10:25 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: Maybe sports agents and their families ought be given more thought?

How could you survive if Jerry McGuire didn't go ahead and git him some.; 3/29/20, 10:27 PM
Mark said...: Are homeless people dying and no one cares enough to report it?

Yes.

Besides, who would know? Most of them are invisible.

No one cared before. Why should they care now?; 3/29/20, 10:30 PM
walter said...: Jersey,FWIW:
Alex Berenson
@AlexBerenson
·
4h
1/ Was talking to a MD today - a good one, plays it down the middle - and he said the serum tests are all that matters. We MUST know how many people have already been infected. If the answer is 1%, we’re in trouble. If it’s 30%, this will be over in almost no time...
Show this thread
Alex Berenson
@AlexBerenson
·
5h
I feel lucky my wife has seen cases firsthand now and has clinical observations that back up the data from Italy etc. There are unlucky exceptions, but this just isn’t that terrible for most people who get it. We’re doing a lot - a lot! - of selecting on the dependent variable.; 3/29/20, 10:31 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: Everybody knows what they did in Viet Nam and Iraq and Afhghanistan can't reverb here: Here we love our progs proggin' mainly because they have never before faced any repercussions. Until now! Here we do it right!; 3/29/20, 10:32 PM
mockturtle said...: Well, Mock, all I can say is that you are normally astute on most issues, but on this one, you've morphed into Inga.

We will be friends again as we get closer to the election:)

I hope so, B.A.G. Perhaps having studied both microbiology and epidemiology, my conclusions are that this virus in highly unusual and that no one can predict what it will do, whether any immunity is conferred with it or if people can be reinfected. And what has happened in Italy and NY should be proof enough that so many very sick people--many of whom are young, BTW--need ICU facilities at one time and for much longer periods than usual is causing a health care crisis for which we are sadly unprepared. YMMV. And B.A.G., I would dearly love to be wrong.; 3/29/20, 10:40 PM
iowan2 said...: Here in Iowa I saw the results of all testing. 93% negative. That 93% negative for testing subjects that are symptomatic. I suppose it is early in the testing phase, but this seems less contagious than advertised; 3/29/20, 10:41 PM
bagoh20 said...: What an amazing day! My family consists of me, my partner, her son and daughter, both in their mid twenties, and our live-in roommate, a close friend in his 50's, three dogs, two cats, two ducks and a herd of Koi and goldfish. Today we did maximum social distancing except from each other, since we all live and work together anyway. We went out shooting. Vegas is great for this. A short 20 min ride from downtown and you are as good as on the moon. There were a lot of other people out doing the same, but there is so much room here, we had no problem finding a spot all to ourselves. We could see for miles in all directions and after mid afternoon there wasn't another soul in sight. A beautiful, blustery day with intermittent sun and clouds. We had the music, food, drinks, and lots of toys. Just a great time.

As the sun started down, clouds came in with intermittent rain and clear sky, and even rainbows among the mountains lit up like a Kinkade painting. There was some sweet bonding the whole time, and we all needed that. Driving home was a strange experience with empty streets through the normally bustling city and a background of absolutely stunning
skies of light and dark with storms visible dumping rain and snow off in the distant mountains. It was a post-apocalyptic kind of beauty that we all noticed as special and it it gave me a comforting acceptance that felt like peace - a private oasis built in family-sized solitude.

At home, we all made a diner together, and now are retreating to our own spaces for a few minutes before meeting outside for drinks, smokes, and final thoughts for the day. In every way an exceptionally good day.; 3/29/20, 10:42 PM
Ken B said...: Lawrence Person
Listening now. Very good. Thanks for posting.
You are swimming against the tide putting good information on this place I fear. “I think we can put that exponential growth think to bed now.” That was posted just after your link.; 3/29/20, 10:42 PM
FullMoon said...: The ER doc from NYC who appeared on Tuckers show, on Friday I think, when asked if he was on any meds to protect against excessive exposure to covid patients said he was taking Plaquenil(hydroxychloroquine).I pray that all these brave HC workers are able to access that if they desire.

Second doc interviewed said it is commonly used by doctors to protect against viral infections; 3/29/20, 10:43 PM
hawkeyedjb said...: I don't get the thing about letting Oregon drivers pump their own gas. One hand on the pump (the attendant) vs many hands. Seems to me they should enforce the rules even more strictly now.; 3/29/20, 10:44 PM
stephen cooper said...: I never get tired of saying God loves us all.

God loves Ann Althouse enough to show her how to be an artist.
God loves all the commenters here, because, I mean, if God did not love them, why would they bother trying to say what they want to say?
God loves me, God loves everyone I know.

As always, I am in a good mood tonight, so I am going to say this.

I am fortunate enough to live in a country with hundreds of millions of really decent people.

Some of them, not most of them, but some of them, are thinking a lot tonight about this whole Chinese virus thing.

You want to know something?????

I fucking hate it when Homer Simpson purrs and says, in his stupid selfish way ....MMMM BACON,

You might say, well, I am a better person than you, and BACON IS TASTY and I will say ...

well yeah, maybe, but HOMER SIMPSON SET A BAD EXAMPLE FOR THOSE CHINESE PEOPLE WHO SAID

MMMM FLYING CHIHUAHUAS

and who, having eaten said flying chihuahuas, coughed and sneezed and thereby shut down your schools and stole so much happiness from our young people and took away years of your retirement savings and guaranteed the death, in excruciating pain and far from family members, of - right now - tens of thousands of no longer young fellow Americans who you would be honored to call a friend ---- or, a few weeks from now, if GOD DOES NOT ANSWER MY AND OUR PRAYERS FOR MERCY, hundreds of thousands of such people, among all the great numbers of sufferers in other countries.

Thanks for reading, enjoy your bacon if you like bacon, BUT PLEASE DO NOT EAT FLYING CHIHUAHUAS, and DO NOT EVEN DREAM OF MOCKING PEOPLE LIKE ME WHO ARE SAYING AS LOUD AS WE CAN

DO NOT EAT FLYING CHIHUAHUAs.

that being said, if you feel that you have only two choices, "one" mocking me or "two" eating flying chihuahuas, well them mock me, I can take it.

Cor ad cor loquitur.; 3/29/20, 10:44 PM
hawkeyedjb said...: That's a nice day bagoh. I wish I could find a place nearby in the desert where I could shoot.; 3/29/20, 10:47 PM
bagoh20 said...: " this virus in highly unusual"

We will see in hindsight. In real time, I don't think we are currently able to separate our reaction from the character of the disease itself. They are a tangled mess at this point.; 3/29/20, 10:47 PM
madAsHell said...: Read somewhere that herd immunity kicks in at a point maybe as low as 30%.

Herd Immunity -
the resistance to the spread of a contagious disease within a population that results if a sufficiently high proportion of individuals are immune to the disease, especially through vaccination.

What a fucking troll! Hitch-hiker stories, and bad statistics!! I don't see any well-defined populations in the definition, and then you apply percentages. Fuck off!!; 3/29/20, 10:51 PM
Marc in Eugene said...: Balzac is such a pleasure, and I wish I'd spent more time reading him when I was younger. La Comédie humaine contains in so many individual characters such a mix of good and bad, noble and ignoble, virtue and depravity: very few of us can aspire to be added to the canon of the saints but any of us could easily show up in the pages of Balzac, only made more attractive in spite of our flaws. Comments supra prompted me to re-read the short story Une épisode sous la Terreur, 'an episode during the Terror'-- I had forgotten the 'reveal' that comes at the end.; 3/29/20, 10:56 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: There is a better than good chance I misremember...

But.

Chuck was the 1000lb gator who never left after Katrina, he figured he hit the jackpot.

One local, very kindly friendly, announced "I've never seen Chuckie move, but my wife has seen him wink/blink his left eye once."

He followed/ended with: "you don't get to be a 1000lb Gator by moving a lot."
'; 3/29/20, 11:10 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @Mock,

"Perhaps having studied both microbiology and epidemiology,.."

Awesome! Then you will be able to grasp this one simple point.

Let's focus on Italy. The country hardest hit by this "new" epidemic. Italy has a population of 62 Million. Nice country. Spent a few weeks in Rome, Florence & Amalfi Coast last August.

Currently - 11,000 Covid-19 deaths in Italy. By far they most in the world (Spain is second with 7,000 deaths) Works out to 178 deaths per Million people. Really bad, right?

Well, Rosano et al wrote a paper in Aug 2019, 3 months before anyone on Planet Earth had heard of Covid-19. Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) .

Quote from Rosano:

"In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the elderly during the winter season. Influenza epidemics have been indicated as one of the potential determinants of such an excess. The objective of our study was to estimate the influenza-attributable contribution to excess mortality during the influenza seasons from 2013/14 to 2016/17 in Italy."

They found 68,000 excess deaths in Italy due to flu.

That averages to 17,000 excess flu deaths in Italy each winter for 4 straight years.

And, now Italy - the worst hit in the world from a new virus -- has 11,000 deaths.

Based on your microbiology and epidemiology training, you have heard of the term "co-morbidities," correct?

My hypothesis - Italy has superimposed the Covid-19 pseudo epidemic onto a pre-existing flu epidemic.

So, question posed: How are Italian officials distinguishing from deaths caused by the flu as studied and published by Rosano et al, from deaths allegedly caused by this new variant of the SARS virus?; 3/29/20, 11:12 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: https://www.alabamagulfcoastzoo.com/about-the-zoo/

This is a link guild feels sheepishly 'bout.; 3/29/20, 11:15 PM
Inga said...: “Well, Mock, all I can say is that you are normally astute on most issues, but on this one, you've morphed into Inga.”

Better to morph into me than morph into Achilles, like you. Especially during a pandemic.; 3/29/20, 11:15 PM
Kathryn51 said...: iowan2 said...
Here in Iowa I saw the results of all testing. 93% negative. That 93% negative for testing subjects that are symptomatic. I suppose it is early in the testing phase, but this seems less contagious than advertised

Statistics are exactly the same here in Washington state ("ground zero"). The first testing focused on health care workers (plus symptomatic w/known Covid contact), so perhaps that skews the #'s a bit toward healthy/negative.; 3/29/20, 11:18 PM
stephen cooper said...: God calls all of us to be saints.

Are you super bright, with great grades? God wants you to look at your fellow humans and try as hard to tell them about God's love for us as you tried to tell your teachers that you were listening to their discussions of the academic subjects they were paid to discuss. I have known lots of people who got good grades because they cared about their grades but who did not ever try and tell others about God's love for us EVEN THOUGH THEY KNEW I REMEMBER.

Are you just someone who just wants to be normal, to have a good spouse and a family that cares about you and that you care about?

Well that was the road Saint Joseph took to being a saint.

Are you someone who is sick and tired of listening to me? Do you think I am sanctimonious and that, whatever I am saying, whatever it is has nothing to do with you and God?

God bless you. I have looked, with friendship in my heart, in the eyes of thousands and thousands of creatures - rats, cockroaches, bats, mice, even a few thoughtful freshwater tropical fish, and of course, many many human beings ----- the majority of whom looked back with friendship ----- (AMDG) and none of them will argue with you if you say you think badly about me. I would not want them to argue with you. Well a few of the human beings would or will, but none of the rats or cockroaches or bats or mice or freshwater tropical fish would or will, trust me on that,

That being said, GOD WANTS YOU TO BE A SAINT.

Seriously, being a "good dad" or a "great mom" or a "wonderful fellow employee" or even " a guy who always had a few bucks to spare for the poor" is not enough. Hate on me all you want, but don't kid yourself.; 3/29/20, 11:19 PM
narciso said...: how they got their; 3/29/20, 11:19 PM
Yancey Ward said...: "Read somewhere that herd immunity kicks in at a point maybe as low as 30%."

Hard to say what the drop in deaths today was due to. As I noted earlier, new test results has plateaued for the last 4 days:

Sunday 96,000 Saturday 109,000 Friday 107,000 Thursday 98,000 Wednesday 77,000 etc

So, it isn't surprising to see that new cases has also plateaued. The positive/negative ratio hasn't changed much during those 4 days, so either the population of people with flu-like symptoms is starting to abate for all flu-like illnesses, or the panic is subsiding, or more people are just being denied tests.

So, I guess we watch the deaths totals as a proxy until the testing either starts increasing again, at which point we can determine whether or not new cases really are falling as they are being measured this way. It is also possible that it being a Sunday, someone who was supposed to log deaths in a database took the day off, or took off early, and there will be a surge tomorrow that accounts for the ones missed today.; 3/29/20, 11:20 PM
Ken B said...: Inga
Amen.; 3/29/20, 11:20 PM
grackle said...: The most dangerous sport I know of is cave diving. This activity borders on the foolhardy. The next on my list is bull riding.

I love Mexican jaripeos (rodeos) and Mexican bull riding of which there are plenty on YouTube. The rules are very different than that of Norte Americano bull riding. It is a dangerous sport no matter which side of the border it is performed but perhaps even more severe south of the border. The participants’ are nothing short of courageous. I have always found this sport to be inspiring. It’ like watching a good quality war movie.

The link below will transport the clicker to a world of family, respect for religion, tradition, joy, masculinity, femininity, beauty and magnificence. And if you think you may like turquoise chaps fringed in chartreuse you will feel right at home.

Trigger warning: It is also raw, crude, home grown and will disturb the faint of heart.

So in these times of social isolation open yourself up to a new experience.; 3/29/20, 11:21 PM
narciso said...: There seems to be an inverse relationship re covid tracking fewer tests, higher positives.; 3/29/20, 11:22 PM
Francisco D said...: BAG said: Well, Mock, all I can say is that you are normally astute on most issues, but on this one, you've morphed into Inga.

Oh no! Say it isn't so. (LOL)

The massive uncertainty of this experience will make fools of us all.

It is way too soon to declare who was right and who was wrong - and it serves no good purpose.

Let's try to be kind and keep a sense of humor and perspective.; 3/29/20, 11:23 PM
Inga said...: What is don’t get is why Achilles and BAG don’t believe their own President when he said if only 100,000 die he will consider these efforts a “win”. Apparently he’s taking the scientists seriously. Maybe Trump should hire BAG and Achilles as science advisors so he’s not led astray by Fauci.; 3/29/20, 11:25 PM
Ken B said...: “ The massive uncertainty of this experience will make fools of us all.”

True. No reason to spout nonsense like “it’s just a mild flu” though. Some stuff we already know.; 3/29/20, 11:26 PM
n.n said...: It will be interesting to see if the Wuhan-sourced virus and Covid19 disease curb the progress of globalism, immigration reform, and planned parenthood (i.e. excessive deaths).; 3/29/20, 11:28 PM
Yancey Ward said...: "There seems to be an inverse relationship re covid tracking fewer tests, higher positives."

Restrictions on testing explain this. I can get a test here in Tennessee by just showing up apparently claiming to have symptoms. Of course, there is no panic here, and so few want to tested in the first place. When testing was more limited in the beginning, to get a test required definite, verified symptoms and you had to have had contact with another positive case, or have traveled from a known hot spot. New York and New Jersey have very strict rules on getting a test just like those in the beginning. I suspect this why some have long delays getting results- they just are prioritized out of the queue- so they are more stricly selecting the testing pool to make positives more likely. There is nothing wrong with this- it is a perfectly reasonable rationing of a finite supply.

If the US could get up to 1,000,000 tests per day (not sure that is possible), then the percentages everywhere would likely drop to what you see in the more rural states- 7-10% positive.; 3/29/20, 11:41 PM
bagoh20 said...: In Nevada we are tracking pretty close to Wisconsin numbers after a couple of relatively bad days, but we are expecting warm weather into the high 70's to mid 80's for the next 10 days and that's probably the end of our winter now, so hopefully that will put the kabash on this virus.; 3/29/20, 11:43 PM
mockturtle said...: B.A.G., I'm not talking about deaths. I've never been talking about deaths. I'm talking about resource management being challenged by the nature of this virus, specifically, respiratory distress requiring ICU facilities.; 3/29/20, 11:48 PM
Big Mike said...: The figure of 100,000 dead clearly assumes a number of things: (1) we don’t get enough ventilators built and transported to hospitals that need them, (2) we continue to lag behind on creating test kits, so that asymptomatic people or people with very mild cases continue to spread the disease, (3) neither the hydroxychloroquine plus Z-tabs treatment nor anything else works to help patients recover, and (4) the bureaucrats at the FDA continue to walk around with a stick up their ass delaying the development and fielding of an effective vaccine. Frankly, that would make us unusually unlucky, though, and sadly unable to light a fire under the federal bureaucrats.

I had hoped that perhaps a few of the more egregious “government knows best” commentators here would look at the massive screw-ups of the federal bureaucracies with respect to this crisis and reconsider their position. But even Cookie, whose life is most at risk, is unshakeable. Folks, I lived in and around around Washington, DC, for more than forty years, and I assure you from personal observation the only thing the government bureaucrats are good at is killing people and creating red tape. And building empires and defending their perks. If you think any bureaucrat in Washington cares whether you live or die, then you are a fool.; 3/29/20, 11:56 PM
Big Mike said...: BYW, remember the Althouse post from.a few days ago with $35M for the Kennedy Center? The final bill only whittled that down to $25M, whereupon the Center laid off the entire National Symphony Orchestra. Ah, wasn’t that the reason they got any money at all, so that they didn’t have to lay anyone off? Asking for a friend.; 3/30/20, 12:01 AM
mockturtle said...: Well said, Big Mike. Every day I thank God that Trump is President. He may blather and pat his own back but he's a man who will try his best to get things done. He has a history of getting things done and cutting through as much red tape as possible. he knows he's walking a tightrope with our physical and our economic health and I am confident that he will do what is best for the country, not for his own political gain.; 3/30/20, 12:03 AM
Big Mike said...: Thank you, mockturtle. I agree, and I’ll add another thank God that we don’t have Hillary Clinton as our President in this crisis. Joe Biden, either.; 3/30/20, 12:16 AM
Mark said...: Joe Pera shows you how to dance.; 3/30/20, 12:20 AM
Original Mike said...: Watched the Time Tunnel pilot last night.

Anthony Newman is Vic Fontaine!; 3/30/20, 12:25 AM
chickelit said...: Loved "Time Tunnel" as a kid and I remember seeing it in prime time. I had the Titanic virus early on from my grandmother and I never recovered. Episode 1 rocks. But they ran out of cool places to travel back to (or forward to, IRC).; 3/30/20, 12:39 AM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: Curiously veteran SF writer Murray Leinster had written a novel called Time Tunnel just as the series was ramping up towards the debut. The suits were worried there might be a problem (though titles are not normally copyrightable) so they threw Leinster a gig writing an official novelization. So you have two Leinster books called Time Tunnel that have nothing to do with each other..; 3/30/20, 12:47 AM
StephenFearby said...: Trader Joe's had three stores in Manhattan that closed for fumigation after (one each store) employees had Wuflu symptoms.

They reopened at 9AM on Sunday for the senior citizen hour. At 10AM, everyone else could get in--after waiting on the very long lines).

The wife showed up at 9AM at one of these stores to replenish supplies wearing my wonderful Osprey Porter 46L backpack (highly recommended). After she got in, a twenty-something guy in a hoodie barged his way in. He was immediately followed by a brave female employee yelling, "Number 4". This apparently means in Trader Joe speak that we have a problem customer.

He was soon surrounded by male employees who quickly hustled him out of the store.

You may wonder why my 6'3" 210 pound self with a yellow belt in Taekwondo wasn't on the scene to offer assistance and schlep the supplies home.

I was asleep at the time.; 3/30/20, 12:52 AM
Original Mike said...: I didn't remember them going to the future, but I see Episode 2 has them on the first mission to Mars.; 3/30/20, 12:53 AM
Original Mike said...: "Curiously veteran SF writer Murray Leinster had written a novel called Time Tunnel just as the series was ramping up "

I think I read that awhile back. Don't remember the author's name, but that was the title. I didn't understand where the "tunnel" came in.; 3/30/20, 12:58 AM
chickelit said...: Inga said...What is don’t get is why Achilles and BAG don’t believe their own President when he said if only 100,000 die he will consider these efforts a “win”.

Inga, you should link to where Trump says these efforts are "a win." I need context.

Stay with me -- don't conk out.; 3/30/20, 1:11 AM
n.n said...: Empowering and protecting your family during the COVID19 pandemic
- Dr. David Price, Weill Cornell Medical Center

* social distancing (3 ft)
* hand to face hygiene
* coexisting with people (especially in close proximity) who are infected, who have the disease
* when to visit the hospital (e.g. resource management), and telemedical services

Bottom-line: We don't have to shut down the country. We should avoid spreading a social contagion. There are rational and reasonable steps to take in order to mitigate infection, respond to disease, and to mitigate collateral damage.; 3/30/20, 1:15 AM
n.n said...: Inga, you should link to where Trump says these efforts are "a win." I need context.

An expression of gay satisfaction. We witnessed this with the story of the priest, no longer viable, who was actually falsely represented ("blood libel").; 3/30/20, 1:18 AM
chickelit said...: OK, I'm gonna need even more context from n.n....; 3/30/20, 1:24 AM
n.n said...: chickelit:

https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=6329595&postID=6757260451211362588
3/28/20, 10:31 PM

Virginia pastor who said coronavirus was 'mass hysteria' dies of Covid-19

“The pastor had shared a meme on Facebook slamming the media for causing unwarranted panic about the coronavirus. He compared the current media coverage to that of the H1N1 virus, and suggested that the H1N1 virus was worse but that the nation and media during that crisis were "totally chill".

Just days before he fell ill with coronavirus, Pastor Spradlin posted on his Facebook account: "President Trump: COVID-19 Coronavirus. US cases: 1,329. US deaths: 38. Panic level: Mass hysteria," the post claimed. "President Obama: H1N1 Virus. US cases: 60.8million. US deaths: 12,469. Panic level: Totally chill."

"Do you all see how the media can manipulate your life?" the post questioned.”

This is very sad, more so because he so misunderstood what was about to kill him.

Well, inferring Inga's state of mind may be an exaggeration, but spreading the social contagion is a real problem.; 3/30/20, 1:33 AM
n.n said...: This is very sad, more so because he so misunderstood what was about to kill him.

He understood it, but he thought that progress of the social contagion should be controlled in order to mitigate risk from the virus, injury and abortions correlated with the disease, to properly manage resources, to improve viability of people contracting the virus and disease, and to limit collateral damage. He was right. That said, he was a victim of Gaia's Choice.; 3/30/20, 1:47 AM
n.n said...: Empowering and protecting your family during the COVID19 pandemic
- Dr. David Price, Weill Cornell Medical Center

* social distancing (3 ft)
* hand hygiene
* coexisting with people (especially in close proximity) who are infected, who have the disease
* when to visit the hospital (e.g. resource management), and triage (e.g. telemedical services)

Bottom-line: We don't have to shut down the country. We should avoid spreading a social contagion. There are rational and reasonable steps to take in order to mitigate infection, respond to disease, and to mitigate collateral damage.; 3/30/20, 1:48 AM
chickelit said...: @:n.n.

Unconvinced.
Step it up.; 3/30/20, 1:51 AM
JPS said...: Bay Area Guy,

I'd run your comment past the Italian ICU doc in our family, but she's on duty again. She spent a big chunk of her last day off phoning families of patients who didn't make it, trying to console them. Also the family of the 28-year-old she had to intubate had some questions about his odds.

Also this not-all-that-large city has lost four doctors who somehow made it through the last four flu seasons. But here I want to be clear on attribution: Coronavirus didn't kill them. They were retired, some of them in shaky health, and when their hospitals were crying out for any doctor to come back on duty, they did it and they worked til they dropped. If only they'd listened to you, they would have known there was no need to do that.; 3/30/20, 3:59 AM
Achilles said...: mockturtle said...

I would dearly love to be wrong.

Good. You will get your wish.; 3/30/20, 4:16 AM
Achilles said...: Inga said...
What is don’t get is why Achilles and BAG don’t believe their own President when he said if only 100,000 die he will consider these efforts a “win”. Apparently he’s taking the scientists seriously. Maybe Trump should hire BAG and Achilles as science advisors so he’s not led astray by Fauci.

Well, Inga is stupid. But we knew that.

Trump is handling this brilliantly. Setting the bar at 100,000 makes it impossible for him to lose.

It wont even be close to 100,000 in the US.

And Trump will inevitably claim victory.; 3/30/20, 4:20 AM
Achilles said...: Inga said...
“Well, Mock, all I can say is that you are normally astute on most issues, but on this one, you've morphed into Inga.”

Better to morph into me than morph into Achilles, like you. Especially during a pandemic.

Ken B said...
Inga
Amen.

Pees in a pod.

You can't think for yourselves or do any real critical thinking.

I wonder what happened 20-25 days ago that would cause a spike in deaths the last couple days.

Was it a rush to the hospital by everyone with the flu thinking they were going to die?

We may never know.

Either way I haven't seen any of you deal with the co-morbidity or extra death analysis.

I have noticed Ken and Inga have similar critical thinking skills.

The come down over the next couple of weeks will be very nice for everyone.; 3/30/20, 4:33 AM
JPS said...: Achilles,

“It won’t even be close to 100,000 in the U.S.”

I agree with you on that, but I think that’s because we’re taking unusual measures to combat it. That doesn’t mean I support (or would support) just any measure being taken in the name of that goal.

I’m sure this is several rounds of argument back, but - do you see any reason to believe that, if we handled this exactly as we do the flu (minus the vaccinations that of course aren’t available yet) it wouldn’t infect at least as many people? Never mind that silly 81% estimate from the original Imperial College model study. Call it 30 million people.

Now, I keep defending the Italians because the doctors I know here aren’t fools. I think they would agree that their apparent 11% case fatality rate is inflated, for many of the reasons you and BAG and others point out. Selection bias because tests were limited; aging population, comorbidities. They think a realistic number is probably just over 1%.

Let’s take Germany instead. A post here not so long ago asked why their fatality rate was only half a percent. That’s when it was up from 0.1%. Currently it’s 0.86%. Note that it’s been trending up as they identify more cases, not down.

So: If we did nothing differently than usual, why wouldn’t we see 30 million cases, 25 million of them no big deal, 5
million or so pretty nasty, 2 million of those in intensive care, and 260,000 fatalities?

I happen to agree the president is handling this well. I’m guessing he would have preferred to avoid this disruption, but became convinced it was necessary. Now he’s hoping for as little disruption as will prevent all that.; 3/30/20, 5:01 AM
donald said...: Gulf Shores is a fetid backwater of death. Stay away!; 3/30/20, 5:54 AM
rehajm said...: Half the nation is trying to stop corona while the other half is trying to stop Trump; 3/30/20, 6:15 AM
rehajm said...: Weekly deaths in the US down 7,000-10,000 for the week ending March 7.; 3/30/20, 6:16 AM
tim in vermont said...: This ChiCom virus is causing a lot of fear and anxiety, and one way to deal with that fear is denial, and another way to deal with it is to displace it, to mentally move the object of your fear onto something else that is less scary, like Donald Trump. In a lot of people’s minds, Donald John Trump is the sum of all fears rolled into one.

But denial is another way, and just because there is a small number of cases currently compared to the population of California, it doesn’t discredit the idea that this thing is out there growing exponentially. And if you do not understand what “exponentially” actually means, your arguments become increasingly silly. The concept of exponential growth is frightening, for example, just a few grubs of the emerald ash borer were carried to Detroit embedded in some shipping crates out of Asia, probably China, and now billions of ash trees are dead. That’s a scary concept, the first think your mind wants to do is push such a scary concept aside through denial, so that you feel better right away.

If you are not doing that, not shunting the idea aside because it’s so scary, you tell me why my example is wrong. The ash borer has a reproductive life cycle that is measured in years, and it could easily appear that it was never coming, where this virus we are talking about weeks, but nobody denies the inexorable nature of the ash borer because as much as we don’t like to see our ash trees die, we aren’t afraid for our own lives.; 3/30/20, 6:36 AM
Rosa Marie Yoder said...: Today is a good day to shop online for seeds as the overnight temperatures are forecast to only reach the low 30's for the next ten days. I need a ground cover for a large shady area with sandy soil. This is going to take some research, and maybe a chat with the county extension service.; 3/30/20, 6:37 AM
tim in vermont said...: Good idea Rosa. It’s time to plant peas here, well past time. You can plant peas as soon as the ground is unfrozen enough to be workable.; 3/30/20, 6:44 AM
Fernandinande said...: its-okay-to-blame-china

That'd be great bumper sticker. Have Che on the side for irony.

stephen cooper said...
You might say, well, I am a better person than you, and BACON IS TASTY and I will say ...

Are you unaware that your posts consist of you telling everyone else about the wonderfulness of your own self?; 3/30/20, 6:51 AM
mockturtle said...: I like the victory garden idea. Here in SW AZ, growing season is coming to an end. It will be too hot in a month or so.; 3/30/20, 9:24 AM
Marc in Eugene said...: So in these times of social isolation open yourself up to a new experience.

Among many other entertaining aspects, the absence of mobile telephones in use by the spectators was a welcome sight.; 3/30/20, 12:22 PM