Writes Dan Balz in WaPo.
As a Wisconsinite, I'm pleased and anticipating all the pandering, but I want to focus on this about Michigan, under the heading "Clinton lost big in Detroit...":
What happened in Detroit (and why won't that happen again)? The article doesn't really explain — except to refer to the declining population. Elsewhere in the column, there is talk about African American voters. Balz writes that there are 4 "demographic groups" that will be focused on, including "African Americans, and particularly younger African Americans, whose turnout levels will be critical to Democrats’ fortunes." And in talking about Milwaukee, there's this:
In 2016, Clinton suffered a falloff in the Milwaukee media market that was about double that of the state as a whole. Much of that erosion was concentrated in African American precincts in the city of Milwaukee. Combined with Trump’s big margins in the northwestern part of the state, that was enough to doom her chances.Of course, we're deprived of any painfully honest discussion of how much the Democrats need black voters in big cities to control the electoral votes of the swing states and why they're having trouble getting these votes in the post-Obama era. Here's how Trump talked to black voters in Michigan in 2016:
"America must reject the bigotry of Hillary Clinton, who sees communities of color only as votes, not as human beings worthy of a better future."
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201 comments:
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America must reject the bigotry of the Democratic Party, who sees communities of color only as votes, not as human beings worthy of a better future.
The loss of one of those states may well cost Trump in 2020. That is why I believe that he will not win. I shudder to think of an all Dem control. There is a good chance that the Dems will also take back the Senate. We are E'ffed.
Elizabeth Warren will sweep all before her since we know how much blacks love fake Indians who use Affirmative Action to get juicy faculty jobs at Harvard.
There will be a flood of "walking around money" donated by rich capitalists who lean left politically so the poor don't decorated lampposts with them, or as the French say, "À la lanterne!"
Massive voter fraud in just four states is likely to determine the outcome in 2020.
FIFY
Trump's words were true, right on the money. They want Blacks on the Demtard Plantation but doing nothing to improve their lives. Under "evil" old Trump, Blacks are enjoying their lowest unemployment rate in history.
but we are endlessly scolded that Clinton won the popular vote - thanks to CA. CA holding 1 out of 8 US residents.
This is why the corrupt left want to abolish the electoral college. Because it gives democrats an unfair advantage of using CA to win all elections henceforth.
The unions in MI, WI, OH, PA will be counted on to do the heavy lifting. (of boxes full of pre-filled in ballots to be delivered late in the process- after the polls close- to key precincts). While the rank and file union workers are as split in their votes as the rest of the nation, the leaders of the unions are on the Dem payrolls. They have their marching orders and in return expect big favors from Dem administrations. In the form of large, stuffed envelopes.
Will the union rank and file vote their conscience or vote for who they are told to vote for?
Really- do you think Elizabeth Warren or Trump would be better for the manufacturing sector in America?
The election comes down to these states mentioned above + North Carolina and of course, Florida, where nothing is ever figured out.
The democrat party has abandoned the working class.
The democrat party is fine with that. The D's think they can cobble together enough votes out of rich white progressive elites, illegal entrants, various lied-to eternal victim groups, lay-abouts, takers, and mom's basement dwellers..
Presidents generally get re-elected to two terms, unless they are a sanctimonious loser like Jimmah Carta who created the disastrous events in the Middle East by not supporting the Shah of Iran who was far better than the Mullahs, or you get an effective third party candidate to split the vote like Ross Perot. For all of his supposed unpopularity and nazi-like tendencies young Bush was re-elected and Obozo the Magnificent for all of his failures got re-elected. So why wouldn't Trump who has helped foster the best economy in 50 years, has started no new shooting wars, and has the Euroweanies on the run?
Bleach Bit and Hammer,
Trump carried the popular vote by over 1 million outside of Kalifornia. I suspect millions of Kalifornia votes were cast by illegal aliens, the dead, and the felons.
Massive voter fraud in just four states is likely to determine the outcome in 2020.
I think this is a real possibility. 2018 was a test run in Orange County CA and Maricopa County AZ. Both were successful.
The Dems can push Black folks to the back of the Democrat bus only so many times before Black voters wise up. Won't take many of them to simply not vote for some states to tip the other way.
I agree with the commenter who said we are E'ffed. I have been waiting my entire lifetime for the Black community or the Jewish community or the Asian community to realize how inimical the Democratic party is to the prosperity and safety of their communities. But for the Black community, the institutionalized dependency is too grest, while the Jews cannot shake the historical face of antisemitism. The Asians i have not yet figured out.
"We were wrong about which states would be critical in 2016, but you should trust our assessment of 2020."
You don't do massive voter fraud. You do just enough to flip the state. Massive is self-defeating.
Do not use this map to make decisions.
The Dems can push Black folks to the back of the Democrat bus only so many times before Black voters wise up.
What is the evidence for this? Remember, the Black vote shifted from Republican to Democrat while the Democratic Party was enforcing Jim Crow and segregation in the South.
If we talked this way about any other thing, it would be the most racist bigoted conversation. If any other product (besides candidates) advertised itself this way, it would be the most racist bigoted ad campaign. This is the part of politics, combined with the never ending campaign season, that drives us apart and makes us look at different races as different kinds of people.
"Of course, we're deprived of any painfully honest discussion of how much the Democrats need black voters in big cities to control the electoral votes of the swing states"
Of course, we're also deprived of any painfully honest discussion of how much the Democrats need nice white women voters in suburbs and small cities to control the electoral votes of the swing states. Like, you know, timid women who like to rationalize their vote for Big Brother progressivism as a choice for the "ethical, competent" candidate and who might be sensitive to threats of racism and appeals to their pro-choice feminism.
D's will give everyone plenty of "walking around money" to get the necessary votes out in Milwaukee and Detroit. BTW, does Balz give the turnout percentages for Milwaulkee and Detroit? Most big cities have turnout of 100% or even 110% of the registered voters.
Diversity, color judgments, or value assessments with low information attributes.
The union bosses are worthless. Trump tried to reach out to them and get jobs for their members - the ones who don't work for state/local Governments - and they slapped Trump. The suicidal freak who tried to kill the R Congressmen was a big Union guy.
Trump wanted to do something about Election Fraud after 2016 election but of course Ryan, McConnell, and the R establishment weren't interested. Of course, other than tax cuts for the rich, they weren't interested in doing ANYTHING.
So here we are in 2019. As Dr. K has asked what is the R answer to "Vote Harvesting"? Answer: Nothing.
You have to wonder why Minnesota votes D every 4 years. But then you realize its a state that elected AL Franken and Jesse Ventura. Its full of idiots.
Who among the D candidates has a shot at pushing black turnout and D support to near-Obama levels? Certainly not Liz or Bernie, and probably not Kamala either. Pete? Ha. Joe? Maybe, but he seems to be having other problems.
Why Did Black Voters Flee The Republican Party?
Roosevelt and Goldwater.
Mark said...
The Dems can push Black folks to the back of the Democrat bus only so many times before Black voters wise up.
!!!
May I suggest bus ride as field experience/experiment to anchor empirical reality ... Bus has emergency break out window in the back.
Zogby has Trump's support among sunsets of likely voters at:
Blacks 21%
Latinos 46%
Zogby leans Left.
What that portends is a blowout for Trump.
Add 15% to the 13% of voters who are black means nearly 2% more for Trump.
Add 20% to the 18% of voters who are latino means another 3.6% more for Trump.
Trump got 46.1% in 2016.
That is 51.7%.
So somebody has to show me where Democrats gain 4% among other sub-groups.
It cannot be done.
There is Trump, "bigger than life," and the "Ten Little Indians," smaller than life.
How much does that change the coming election away from the usual "politics"?
REMEMBER!
We KNOW, because we heard it (over and over and over again), from a Life Long Liberal
That what the republicans NEED TO DO; is ALWAYS pick people like Romney, not people like Trump
This would be a Weird Thing for a Republican (ESPECIALLY one from Michigan) to say,
but a understandable thing for a Life Long Liberal to say
Inga lies again. Black voters flocked to Roosevelt and Truman. FDR for free stuff and Truman because he integrated the Army.
Also, Kennedy called MLK when he was in the Birmingham jail. Nixon wanted to but was discouraged by clueless staff.
Goldwater was correct about the Civil Rights bill but wrong politically. Humphrey, during the debate said, "If this bill results in quotas, I will eat the bill." He didn't live long enough.
Inga & friends. Again. Jesus Christ.
Michael K said...
Elizabeth Warren will sweep all before her since we know how much blacks love fake Indians who use Affirmative Action to get juicy faculty jobs at Harvard.
Real Scenario;
MOST Blacks and Hispanics will stay home;
Around 8pm (or, in the next few days), people will show up at their doorstep, and say SIGN THIS
Black and Hispanic turnout ends up being in excess of 100%
Mass Media declares a Victory For Democracy! The People Have Spoken
Somebody take the contrary side to my math, above, based on Zogby's polling.
Milwaukee, October 2020.
A few weeks before the election, you go to the home of a young Black male who is unlikely to vote.
You give him an absentee ballot, and you tell him to mark his votes.
You watch him do it.
Then you take the absentee ballot from him.
If he voted for the Democrat, then you deliver the ballot to the precinct office.
If he voted for Trump, you throw the ballot into the garbage.
American Democracy -- 2020
BTW, 21% announced support from blacks likely means the true number is significantly higher.
Blogger rhhardin said...
You don't do massive voter fraud. You do just enough to flip the state. Massive is self-defeating.
_________
Does it matter then who the
D candidate?
Other than states to flip?
Seriously, Althouse commenters!
Do the quantitative analysis.
Quit with the unprovable qualitative shit.
Why Did Black Voters Flee The Republican Party?
Roosevelt and Goldwater.
The shift had nothing to do with Goldwater. It happened in the 1930's, long before anyone had even heard of Goldwater. By the way, Congressional Republicans voted for the civil rights bills in a higher percentage than Democratic Congressmen.
A four-year campaign to characterize Trump and Republicans as racists.
Voting by absentee ballots
Voting by absentee ballots long before the election.
Organizing the Democrat Party to harvest absentee ballots from young Black males long before the election.
American Democracy in 2020
It is disappointing to hear of 'the black vote', just as it is to hear of 'the women's vote'. It means that divisiveness and identity politics are still driving election campaigns.
None of you want to engage?
You'd rather play inside your own respective minds?
You'd rather imagine a worst case scenario?
The numbers are coming from the Left.
And they're screaming against their own interests.
Assuming blacks will "wise up" seems like wishcasting.
You give him an absentee ballot, and you tell him to mark his votes.
You watch him do it.
Then you take the absentee ballot from him.
If he voted for the Democrat, then you deliver the ballot to the precinct office.
If he voted for Trump, you throw the ballot into the garbage.
Absolutely. What is the whole secret ballot thing about? Why would anyone trust some person in the street to take your voter registration and deal with it honestly if it doesn't agree with their tastes, let alone your ballot?
It won’t be Wisconsin. It was supposed to be Michigan in 2000 but it was Florida.
I predict it will be Pennsylvania.
Blogger Michael K said...
“Black voters flocked to Roosevelt and Truman. FDR for free stuff and Truman because he integrated the Army.”
If you had read the article before shooting off your big mouth, you’d have realized that Blacks left the Republican Party because they LIKED Roosevelt’s policies and DISLIKED Goldwater’s.
Althouse wrote: As a Wisconsinite, I'm pleased and anticipating all the pandering,..
Can we call it "Wispandering"?
Birkel 2, Defeatists 0
Yes, we all know Dems use voter fraud in the inner cities.
Yes, we all know Dems push identity/tribal politics, because their socialist big government ideas suck.
Yes, we know a big segment of the opposition party (GOP) are composed of country-club elitists, who don't fight back.
Nonetheless, despite all this, Trump somehow won in 2016, when nobody (but Mick!) predicted it.
Trump needs more allies. He can't do it alone or just with his kids. I hope those allies will step up, and give it a shot, rather than meekly preach doom & gloom.
they...disliked Goldwater
That LBJ -- he sure knew what was best for the nation.
If you had read the article before shooting off your big mouth,?
Why would anyone read the crap you link to?
Bedpan commandoes should stick to what they know.
I'm pleased and anticipating all the pandering
If you watch much commercial television, you're going to regret it.
WWJD? With the tables of vote changers in the Temples of democratcy
By the way, Congressional Republicans voted for the civil rights bills in a higher percentage than Democratic Congressmen.
Shhh. The bedpan wrangler doesn't know this.
And the blacks liked Roosevelt for free stuff.
Can we call it "Wispandering"?
How about "stroking the cheeseheads"?
How about "stroking the cheeseheads"?
Too smegmatic.
The Democratic Party in Wisconsin has invested huge amounts of resources to get into black communities, door to door. The black vote in WI in 2016 was down by 19% from 2012. Democrats are not going to let that happen again.
Blogger Birkel said...
None of you want to engage?
______
I want to go to bed in Texas early this time.
Can we Trump-iteerzzzzz get to 270+ before poll analysis pass into Mountain Time or the left coast!
I hate to engage with Inga, but feel I should point out to her that FDR and Goldwater were of different generations. The "black vote" was long gone for the Republican Party by the time Goldwater was old enough to vote.
And it was mostly gone because of "the great migration" after the great flood and devastation of 1927 when black people left the South in droves in search of employment and were welcomed with open arms by the big city Democrat machines in the North.
The black vote in WI in 2016 was down by 19% from 2012.
Why was that?
Did any of you watch Trump's "Marine 1" presser on Friday?
Can you imagine any of today's Democrat candidates matching that performance?
The Left used to focus all of its voter fraud in inner city black districts, so that investigating it could always be deflected with bullshit cries of "Racism!"
But with ballot harvesting now, that restriction is gone. They can conduct voter fraud anywhere and as much as they want. That's how dozens of always red California districts all went blue simultaneously. If there is any mechanism to prevent this, I'm unaware of it.
‘...but feel I should point out to her that FDR and Goldwater were of different generations. The "black vote" was long gone for the Republican Party by the time Goldwater was old enough to vote.”
No kidding. Another person who didn’t bother reading the article.
@ Hagar said ...
______
Thanks for lesson.
So Trump is right to stay with pocket book issue and not cuckist ideology!
‘Why was that?’
I’d say it was because they weren’t energized by Clinton. Whoever will be the Democratic nominee, the VP will likely be a minority. Why should Black people vote for someone who doesn’t speak to their issues and excite them? If Democrats don’t choose their candidate wisely we will see a repeat of 2016 or an extremely tight race.
@ FrankiM said ...
______
As preview inducement to read article : can you tell me if "black vote"
Swung back and forth between generations?
I'm slowly waiting reading.
“The Dems can push Black folks to the back of the Democrat bus only so many times before Black voters wise up.”
God in Heaven. I’m pretty sure Blacks “wised up” a long time ago. They understand they’re being exploited. But food on the table and a roof over your head, however shitty, are absolutes, and Black folks will always vote overwhelmingly for the Party that they perceive is most likely to provide those things. You can shout “jobs!” till the cows come home but there’s a long history of Blacks being marginalized (or rendered dependent on AA) in the job market, and even the most gainfully employed Black person is going to be more conscious of the need for Uncle Sucker’s safety net. And that’s just Black men. Black women are ironclad in their dependency.
Trump has been very wise politically, if not fiscally, in not making the usual conservative noises about entitlements. He might gain a percentage point or two of the Black vote in 2020.
Smegmatic
The perfect gift for the man who has everything.
Unless there is a recession, Trump starts 2020 with 49% of the vote. The Republicans that voted third party in 2016 but not in 2012 will vote for Trump. This adds about 3% to Trump's starting base of vote- that is Trump's floor- his normal ceiling is 51%- garnered by adding the 2% boost over 1st election that most incumbents enjoy from simply being the incumbent.
What the Democrats need is Obama-level turnout numbers and margins of black voters- this was Obama's entire victory in 2012, and why he won a landslide in 2008 (Obama would have won in 2008 even with John Kerry numbers with blacks, but not in 2012). I think Booker is the only candidate right now that could pull of Obama numbers this way. The problem is that Trump has more actual black support than a normal Republican would pull- he did in 2016 already, and it looks higher today. I think this is the real motivation behind the recent push to tar Trump as a racist- the Democrats are seeing the same polling I am, and it terrifies them.
If there is no recession, then I think Trump wins 51% of the vote and wins between 305 and 350 electoral votes. He can lose MI, WI, and PA if he wins VA. He can lose IA, too, if he picks up NH and/or NV. I think the very worst he could do is win the same as Bush did in 2004.
Now, if there is a recession next year, and if the country is in recession at the election, then Trump will probably lose unless the Democratic candidate is insane and continues to run as a socialist, but Trump will do no worse than Romney did in 2012, and will just barely lose a states like FL, OH, and VA along with the upper midwest states and PA.
Bob, I believe that should be on the German thread.
Blogger Qwinn said
But with ballot harvesting now, that restriction is gone.
_____
I will note for legal purposes these are !documents! More so than electronic blips.
I says bring back paper ballot (not punch card) and finger staining.
Your system is laughable hackable.
Seriously, these recent polls showing Trump losing by double digits to any Democrat candidate are farcical on their face. The absolute maximum a Republican could lose to a Democrat would be the 7% Obama won by in 2008, and was with Obama pulling record turnout from minorities. Trump, if he loses, won't lose by more than Romney lost by in 2012- even with a recession.
Black folks will always vote overwhelmingly for the Party that they perceive is most likely to provide those things. ?
Remember a very large share of the black middle class is made up of government employees.
Is there a naked German gadget geek on your Christmas list this year?
Smegmatic will put a smile on his face and sparkle on his foreskin.
The truly remarkable thing about Trump's victory in 2016 is that he did with the Libertarian Party, the Constitution Party, and Evan McMullin pulling 4% of the vote (4 times what the Green Party did). If you had told me those totals on November 7th 2016, I would have given Trump 0% chance to win. Never Trump Republicans felt free to vote 3rd party because they thought Trump had no chance to win. That won't be the case in 2020 because 2016 did happen.
What happened in Detroit?
The same thing that always happens in Detroit.
When Jill Stein forced a court ordered recount, Detroit informed the court it was not possible to conduct even a limited recount in Detroit. Before any questions could be asked, the court ended the Jill Stein recount in Michigan. Detroit promised they would have their structural deficiencies fixed by the next election.
In 2016 7.8 million voters nationwide cast their ballots for someone other than Trump or Clinton. Those numbers will be drastically reduced in 2020.
In 1932, Herbert Hoover, as the then world's leading "bleeding heart liberal" (actually I think, Hoover was not so much a "liberal" as a compulsive organization manager), ran on a liberal Republican Party (which at that time included the "prairie populists") platform.
Franklin Roosevelt, as a Democrat of the time, ran on the Democrat platform of economy in government and balancing the budget, but once elected turned around and "stole" Hoover's proposed programs for fighting the Depression.
As MacArthur put it, he was "a man who wanted to be President and meant to be."
As for what actually was in FDR's mind, perhaps Louis Howe and Missy LeHand knew, but if so, they knew from long observation close up and not from anything they heard him say.
In 2016 7.8 million voters nationwide cast their ballots for someone other than Trump or Clinton. Those numbers will be drastically reduced in 2020.
Just don't assume that all those votes will go D this time around.
NPR article in 2014 headlines and explains : Why Did Black Voters Flee The Republican Party In The 1960s?
So FrankiM shades fact but not TRUTH
Got it.
Inga is correct, though- that 7.8 million will be more like the 2 million that was seen in 2012 and previous elections, and it will break down 2 to 1 or better for Trump since 3rd party Democrat voters go Green and 3rd Party Republican voters go Libertarian and fringe Tax protest parties (like the Constitution Party). However, the Green Party and the minor left-leaning parties only won 1.1% of the vote in 2016- the right leaning 3rd parties won over 4%. Those totals will return close to the 0.2% and 1% that prevailed in 2012 and 2008.
As for Detroit, the population has dropped 41,000 since 2010 census. Cities like Milwaukee and Philadephia haven't dropped in population, but the cities themselves haven't grown much either- their weight for their states is slowly dropping.
I should have said: The "black vote" was long gone for the Republican Party in the North by the time Goldwater was old enough to vote.”
In the Democrat "Solid South" it did not matter what party blacks favored, since they were not allowed to vote in the Democrat primaries which were the only elections that mattered.
What is the whole secret ballot thing about?
It was an obsolete practice, from back in the 20th century or so.
NOW with CARD CHECK; both for Unionization as well as Elections...
We'll Never have to worry about such archaic things ever again.
Coming Soon! Proxy Vote Assignments. Make EVERY Vote Count!
When liberals lose an election, they always cite the votes a republican didn't get as a way to delegitimize they votes they did get.
Zogby has Trump's support among sunsets of likely voters at:
Blacks 21%
Latinos 46%
Zogby leans Left.
What that portends is a blowout for Trump.
Add 15% to the 13% of voters who are black means nearly 2% more for Trump.
Add 20% to the 18% of voters who are latino means another 3.6% more for Trump.
Trump got 46.1% in 2016.
That is 51.7%.
So somebody has to show me where Democrats gain 4% among other sub-groups.
It cannot be done.
Numbers that nobody has even attempted to dispute.
Of course, I mean subsets and not sunsets.
Condoleezza Rice says her father became a Republican because the local Republican Party chairman would register him to vote and the Democrat Party chairman refused.
So somebody has to show me where Democrats gain 4% among other sub-groups.
I HATE to sound like a broken record; but, thanx to the NEW, IMPROVED Vote Harvesting® technology,
Dems will be able to make that up easy!
So those four states went Trump by one percent when he was an untested bomb-thrower.
After 4 years of Trump in office, promises kept and a good economy -- why would any of Trump voters change their minds? Why wouldn't those who were on the fence but voted D in the end cross over this time? Seems to me that the margins in those four states will be bigger this time.
That is why I believe that he will not win. I shudder to think of an all Dem control. There is a good chance that the Dems will also take back the Senate. We are E'ffed.
Nope. Because no matter what happens, the people who elected Trump in 2016 aren't going anywhere.
Over the last three years, the left has shown us the playbook on how to refuse election results. Payback will be a bitch.
Nope. Because no matter what happens, the people who elected Trump in 2016 aren't going anywhere.
Yes but we have a lot more illegal voters now than we did then.
gilbar,
You sound like a fear mongering worry wart.
You sound like a guy intent on disbelief.
Vote harvesting is not legal outside California.
Don't be a pansy.
mockturtle...
Add "...concentrated in California, and not including the voter roll clean-ups."
Then we'll talk.
What Yancey said above.
"Now, if there is a recession next year, and if the country is in recession at the election then Trump will probably lose unless the Democratic candidate is insane and continues to run as a socialist, ..."
This may be true, but Trump supporters/voters shouldn't jump ship. The media and the Democrats will beat the recession drum 24/7, because they are hoping for a recession, because it's more important to beat Trump, than to have people working independently and providing for their own families. That's how deranged they are.
If no recession, Trump wins. If yes recession, gotta ask the Dems what caused it, and what policies would have prevented it, and what policies will get us out of it. The business world is cyclical. We can whether recessions, but it's hard to whethe ignorant Leftists in power.
Vote harvesting is not legal outside California.
No way to prevent it in states with all mail in ballots. AZ, OR and WA are examples.
Some hope the AZ legislature will wise up by 2020 election,. No hope in OR or WA.
I’ve chosen not to read any of the foregoing comments. Instead, I am addressing this short comment to Althouse and her post.
As many observers have written, Trump did a little better among Michigan’s white working class and exurban voters than Mitt Romney did in 2012. But the determinative difference in Michigan was the remarkably depressed turnout in Wayne County which includes Detroit. Wayne County is well above 70% Democratic. Wayne County’s 2016 turnout was more than 60,000 votes less than 2016. Alone, that fact accounts for Trump’s capturing Michigan’s electoral votes, by the smallest margin in history.
Across the country, Trump’s share of the African-American vote (based on exit polling, which is the only way it could ever be approximated) was better than Mitt Romney by a point or two it is true but of course Romney was running against The Second Black President and Trump was running against the unlikable hag who could never pull off the fiction of being Mrs. First Black President.
“Yes but we have a lot more illegal voters now than we did then.”
But, for the most part, they are in states that don’t count, like CA.
Blogger Birkel said
That is 51.7%.
So somebody has to show me where Democrats gain 4% among other sub-groups.
It cannot be done.
_________
More details please.
Are you leaving out Blue States?
For other Flipping States it's gotta be more!?
What the Democrats need is Obama-level turnout numbers and margins of black voters- this was Obama's entire victory in 2012, and why he won a landslide in 2008
Yes. Hence the racism hysteria that Trump is racist. They’re trying to win with Obamas voters. Plus the new illegal immigrant voters...
...but aren’t VA and NH red states now?
,,,The media and the Democrats will beat the recession drum 24/7, because they are hoping for a recession,,,
_______
I would like to see analysis how much of that is projected fear of "White" defections from plantation not just minority
Virginia is a company town. Blue......
Attempted recount in Detroit, MI was cancelled by dumbocrats, as many vote pouches were "Improperly Secured", meaning left open without official seals. The state commission ruled them invalid. Several other "recounts" were canceled about the same time. BTW, isn't Jill Stein still researching the possibility of a recount somewhere?
Operative phrase (from the constitution), By Any Means Necessary.
you can't accept unsealed ballot packs, I know they do it all the time, but it's not legitimate,
https://dailycaller.com/2019/09/01/beto-orourke-drops-f-bomb-live-cnn-interview/
Just four states are likely to determine the outcome in 2020
WaPoo needs a fact check from the CNN crawl: WaPo claims four states determine election outcome. Fact: Voting in 50 states and US territories determines the outcome.
Beto O’Rourke Drops F-Bomb On Live CNN Interview
The most recent use of the Candid Comment Into Hot Mic Gambit™.
During the Jill Stein recount in Detroit, the recounters uncovered that during the original counting in one district the ballots were passed through the counters four times. Just to be clear, each ballot was counted a 4 separate votes for the marked candidate. Shortly after that was uncovered, the recount in Michigan was called off!
Narayanan,
I am only talking about nationwide averages, eschewing the 50 state conversation this far out and without reasonable state-level polling of likely voters based on a 2-candidate race.
Careful SteveM!
Birkel will call you a pansy and a worry wart!
Virginia is a company town. Blue......
Democrat, I mean. I still curse the lefties for stealing blue. I called blue!!!
Generational Divided:
Snowflakes for Bernice
But Parents, Grandparents not so much.
OTOH : young *Black, Hispanic* for Trump, but parents?!
Will be interesting data.
Rc ocean defines dumbth again.
PDJT did not cut taxes on "the rich" they are the same as they have been since forever. Zero percent.
If you mean he cut taxes on high income earners you are wrong there too. Their taxes went up, not down.
Ditto middle and bottom.
Are you really too dumb to understand the difference between tax Rates and tax PAYMENTS?
John Henry
"I still curse the lefties for stealing blue."
It's gonna be interesting when enough old school Dems have died off and the socialists remaining decide they want red back. My bet is the media gives it to them without a struggle, saying something like red/blue was never meant to be a permanent marker and it's time to switch.
tom perez, already does that on a regular occasion, now if he were to curse in Spanish, that might be a first, but I don't think skippy is that fluent,
“Ditto middle and bottom. “
I don’t see that part. Tax rates were cut, but the SALT exemption was limited, which mostly went to high income individuals in Deep blue cities, and in particular, NYC and CA. They are the ones, of course, driving the Dem candidates to all pledge to raise taxes back to where they were. And they are major Dem campaign funders, probably only outspent there by billionaires (yes, there is some overlap there).
“It's gonna be interesting when enough old school Dems have died off and the socialists remaining decide they want red back. My bet is the media gives it to them without a struggle, saying something like red/blue was never meant to be a permanent marker and it's time to switch.”
Used to switch back and forth every election.
yes blue is tory and traditional conservative, also navy identified,
https://legalinsurrection.com/2019/09/california-gov-gavin-newsom-seeks-state-wide-rent-cap/
@ SteveM
During the Jill Stein recount in Detroit, the recounters uncovered that during the original counting in one district the ballots were passed through the counters four times. Just to be clear, each ballot was counted as 4 separate votes for the marked candidate. Shortly after that was uncovered, the recount in Michigan was called off!
wait what?
What is the evidence for this?
I've heard that the Black turnout and/or vote in Michigan was not as high as Hillary expected (and needed) it to be.
in the everything old is new again, department,
https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2019/08/31/sole-responsibility/
Blogger SteveM said...
During the Jill Stein recount in Detroit, the recounters uncovered that during the original counting in one district the ballots were passed through the counters four times. Just to be clear, each ballot was counted a 4 separate votes for the marked candidate. Shortly after that was uncovered, the recount in Michigan was called off!
I am well acquainted with that recount. At the time of the recount, Michigan had Republicans as Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State (the chief executive branch official in charge of state elections). Are you suggesting that the ending of the recount was done suspiciously by Dems? What are you saying? Is there some helpful link that supports whatever you’re claiming?
Abortion is the leading cause of death in the United States.
A black baby is three times as likely to be aborted as a white baby.
The Democratic Party champions abortion.
The Democrats are racist.
The Democrats are white supremacists.
Democrats have the blood of fifty million human beings on their hands.
Is there some helpful link that supports whatever you’re claiming?
I like data as much as the next...but given where we are with propaganda and the decline of print and video media statements like this sound silly to my ear. A link. Like that's going to prove anything...
they shouldn't have accepted those ballots in the first place, it shows a breach of basic protocols regarding handling, you couldn't reconcile the digital count and the paper ballot, how long has that been going on,
particularly younger African Americans,
The key word is "younger" not "African Americans."
Kids never really vote. Have to be 30+ y.o. to figure out that voting is important--and even then, to half the country, it is NOT.
I should point out 2 Caveats on wealth taxes
1 I was speaking only of federal taxes
2 the death tax may (or may ot) be a wealth tax.
John Henry
The left's attitude is -- by any means necessary.
When the D's have private access to vote-counting, it's not surprising a pack of liars would cheat. They think it's for the greater good. They think its a moral imperative and that is how they operate, above the law.
Just ask Hillary herself. The largest above the law fish to ever swim free.
Here in CO - the voting apparatus is suspect based on how the votes are cast and counted. By mail, with signature verification. It's a scam. It is a purposeful scam. Up next - mandatory voter registration. Think of the harvesting opportunities.
In Wisconsin the Dem vote in Milwaukee dropped by 70,000 which was made up for by 70,000 absentee ballots but Trump still had 20,000 more non-city voters. This time there will be 90,000 absentee ballots, I feel sure.
That's necessary because the Dems aren't trying to get jobs for minorities as hard as they try to get absentee ballots.
In Racine Governor Evers is still trying to destroy Foxconn just as AOC did with Amazon, although Foxconn has brought manufacturing jobs to the area including a program for a career-ladder for poorly educated minority workers. But the papers hide this program from Milwaukee minorities. If it was me, I would advertise the Foxconn program and run a transit service from Milwaukee neighborhoods to Foxconn in Racine. And the same for transit from Milwaukee to the industrial parks outside Milwaukee's tax grasp - I'd have special service. But being run by Dems, Milwaukee got a cute little trolley (a very expensive circle route between stores and the Third Ward) and scooters. Nothing but the cutest and the latest is good enough for the tax-sucking Third Ward Millennials and their bike-killer transit dreams.
Clinton holds clear advantage in new battleground polls
by Dan Balz and Scott Clement, Washington Post, Posted: October 18, 2016
WASHINGTON - Hillary Clinton holds a decisive advantage over Donald Trump in the competition for votes in the electoral college, leading in enough states to put her comfortably over the 270 majority needed to win the presidential election in November, according to a new SurveyMonkey poll of 15 battleground states conducted with The Washington Post.
Michigan had Republicans as Governor, Attorney General and Secretary of State
Republican's like You, Chuck? Republicans that are PAID by George Soros to subvert elections?
Kids never really vote. Have to be 30+ y.o. to figure out that voting is important--and even then, to half the country, it is NOT.
again, at the risk of being called (again!) a pansy assed worry wart,
You're living in the past.
To register to vote now, you just have to have a driver's license
To Vote now, you just have to (at MOST) open your door, and sign the nice ladies form
They come to your house, you don't even have to know who's running; they'll tell you who to vote for
This is NOT just california. Here's an article about Vote Harvesting, in Iowa; back in 2004
Bringing in Iowa's Vote Harvest
Here's something from our Sec of State
Soliciting Voter Registrations and Absentee Requests
The collected request forms must be returned to the county auditor's office within 72 hours of receiving the form or no later than 5 p.m. on the deadline to request an absentee ballot, whichever is earlier. An application received by a representative of a political party after the deadline, but before the date of the election must return the application to the appropriate county auditor within twenty-four hou
Here's one that explains how to fill out your absentee ballot
Iowa absentee ballot directions
here's the deadlines for the ballots
Iowa absentee ballot deadlines
In Person: 1 day before Election Day
By Mail: 10 days before Election Day
Online:
Voted ballots are due: Postmarked one day before Election Day and received 6 days after Election Day
Don't forget! as of this year, the Democratic Party can make the Postmarks (their computers aren't SUPPOSED to have their dates wrong)
Rabel for the win.
If what Steve M says is true, the MSM(D) would never report it.
Likr clockwork:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nickarama1/status/1168200433355149312
Tje consequences of loss:
https://nypost.com/2019/08/31/new-york-is-running-out-of-fuel-and-power-just-as-cuomo-planned/
The WaPo hack, Dan Balz, ain't too bright. Anybody can look at an electoral map from 2016 and see the marginal states of Wisc, Mich and PA.
I think Trump has Fla - so that gives him 260 EV, needs one more medium state for the win.
So, Dems are gonna work overtime to churn out ballots in Milwaukee, Detroit and Philly.
I'm sure the politicos on Trump's team know all this, so they gotta figger out creative ways to blunt this.
Bottom line - Dems cheat in the inner cities (the shitholes), but its still a 50/50 election. No defeatism, just gotta work hard.
Donald Trump touts giving jobs to minorities; Elizabeth Warren actually took a job rightfully belonging to a minority. That's an uphill fight for Dems.
I cannot wait for Biden's pandering.
“You people from Wisconsin seem very clean.”
“I remember my summers as a boy in Wisconsin, harvesting the cheese.”
“Your hair smells better than Hoosier hair.”
To register to vote now, you just have to have a driver's license
To Vote now, you just have to (at MOST) open your door, and sign
When CA decided to add illegals to the Motor Voter law, it began January 1, 2016. My wife has a January birthday and needed to renew. She could not get an appointment until April the DMV was so swamped with illegals. We left a year later.
Birkel,
National voter percentages mean nothing. There is no national popular vote for President of these United States.
Imagine this scenario: 3 states, one with 15 electors (based on population) and 2 with 8 each.
Candidate T gets 2 of the 3 votes cast in each of the less-populated states.
Candidate L gets 100% of the votes of 100% of the population of the other state.
Who triumphs and who loses?
I wouldn't pay much attention to polls. Remember:
1. Since 1952, whichever party holds the Presidency doesn't lose it before two terms (the ONLY exception being 1980).
2. In 2016 Trump was a weird and unknown phenomenon. Many people couldn't imagine him as President. Hillary had been a familiar figure since 1992.
3. In 2016 Trump could run on promises. Now he must run on accomplishments. How does that cut?
4. Hillary (probably) won't be the Democrats' nominee. Will their 2020 nominee be more or (if this is possible) less appealing than Hillary?
Related
He's Building tools for the analysis
https://ricochet.com/669938/flipping-congressional-districts-part-1/
Does Bernie Sanders wear Wispanders?
https://nypost.com/2016/12/14/michigan-recount-reveals-error-but-not-the-one-jill-stein-wanted/
I will check Drudge now to see where the cow-pie bingo hurricane is threatening, in screaming headlines. Grand Bahama.
Haven't been following it.
DavidD,
Thanks for making the argument I specifically said I was eschewing.
Did my use of big words scare your tiny brain?
If Trump pick up 15% of the black vote compared to 2016, how much cheating will be needed?
Now add on the extra 15% amongst latino voters.
Again, those are Zogby numbers.
You calculate the margin of fraud if Trump gains 15% with blacks and with latinos.
Go crazy and do it in the battleground states.
Make the argument I specifically said I wasn't.
I'll wait patiently.
I bought "Designated Survivor" apparently a recent TV series. Great premise, sliding almost instantly into awful soap opera writing. By season 1 episode 5 it was not only awful but directionally awful.
TV has an episode feel that regular films lack, as well. New subplots every quarter hour. The writers as writers with constraint intrude in the framing.
Instead of watching the hurricane news.
You could do a TV series on a hurricane threatening various places and never landing anywhere. A crisis in each place, though.
Maybe that's the modern taste.
The flying Dutchman hurricane.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/13/us/stein-ends-recount-bid-but-says-it-revealed-flaws-in-voting-system.html
See 10th paragraph, 300 votes, but only 50 ballots.
"1. Since 1952, whichever party holds the Presidency doesn't lose it before two terms (the ONLY exception being 1980)."
I think 1980 was the only exception going back to Grover Cleveland's 2nd term in the late 1800s.
I liked the phrasing in that NYTimes story about the Michigan recount- basically, nothing to see here even though some precincts, all in Detroit, had fewer actual ballots that votes counted. Look, it is very suspicious that the recount was stopped right then and there. On balance, it does look like votes were being fraudulently created by people who hadn't expected to have to do a recount- no one thought Trump would even come within the margin of recount in losing Michigan, much less winning.
Yes the twist on ds came much quicker than with jericho but just as unsurprising it had to be a domestic political threat
Blogger Yancey Ward said...
I liked the phrasing in that NYTimes story about the Michigan recount- basically, nothing to see here even though some precincts, all in Detroit, had fewer actual ballots that votes counted. Look, it is very suspicious that the recount was stopped right then and there. On balance, it does look like votes were being fraudulently created by people who hadn't expected to have to do a recount- no one thought Trump would even come within the margin of recount in losing Michigan, much less winning.
Lol. As usual, you totally do not understand the story you are talking about.
I’ve been a credentialed Detroit Election Day poll watcher for the Republican National Lawyers Association.
Yeah, Birkel.
In your third post.
Which I hadn’t read because I hadn’t refreshed the comments before making mine.
Don’t be a jerk.
And don’t go on about something immaterial.
I’ve been a credentialed Detroit Election Day poll watcher for the Republican National Lawyers Association.
So, you're saying that it was YOU that committed the fraud?
So, you're saying that it was YOU that committed the fraud?
He's saying he's Sgt. Schultz.
You are such incredibly stupid shit heads.
No; after working about eight consecutive elections for the Michigan Republicans and the RNLA, in 2016 I said to hell with it. I wasn’t going to work for a Trump election.
DavidD,
And nobody is challenging the numbers from left-leaning Zogby.
Trump polls 21% with blacks; those are the admitted Trump voters but I believe the number is higher (highly debatable there!).
Trump polls 46% with latinos.
That's the internal polling for those sub-groups.
Those sub-groups are typically 13% and 18% of the electorate, respectively.
Is Trump going to lose white voters 55-45?
Make that argument.
Anybody.
The margin of cheating is big and getting bigger.
Incumbent POTUS' defeated for 2nd term since 1896:
Carter - 1980
But Wilson won by eyelash in 1916 - 52 electoral votes were decided by less than 1%
In 2004, Bush won Ohio by 2%, if he'd lost Ohio, he would've lost the election.
By the way, Balz real name is Noah Balz.
If my grandma had wheels, she'd be a bicycle.
Man, you must be an incredible lawyer. Super credentialed, wealthy, ultra hardcore Republican... and just when they finally win Michigan in a presidential election, you had nothing to do with it.
Go ahead! Tell all your friends that you voted for Trump (?!?!) despite your sheer disgust, but your principles have turned you right side around. I'm sure they will be ever so grateful.
I’ve been a credentialed Detroit Election Day poll watcher for the Republican National Lawyers Association.
Is that like The National Lawyers Guild ? Thought so. Commie front,.
An NYT piece on the low turnout in Milwaukee in 2016: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/us/many-in-milwaukee-neighborhood-didnt-vote-and-dont-regret-it.html?_r=0
“Yes but we have a lot more illegal voters now than we did then.”
But, for the most part, they are in states that don’t count, like CA.
What about Texas? And AZ? They voted for Trump in 2016 but by narrow margins.
mockturtle:
Zogby has latinos at 46% for Trump.
Tell me about Texas.
@Yancey Ward: Your point (6:42 pm) about the Cleveland election is well-taken. I like to focus on the period since 1952 because in that period each party (almost always) holds the Presidency for no LESS than two terms (1980 being the exception), but each party (almost always) holds the Presidency for no MORE than two terms (1988 being the exception).
Zogby has latinos at 46% for Trump.
But those are legal voters. I'm talking about all the new 'migrants' the Democrats will round up and register to vote. Or maybe that only happens in California.
You are such incredibly stupid shit heads.
Chuck is waxing eloquent again.
What about Texas? And AZ? They voted for Trump in 2016 but by narrow margins.
Vote harvesting in AZ. Mail-in ballots, an invitation to vote fraud.
Bush I lost after one term in 1992.
Mr. Majestyk,
I think the conversation is about party losses.
"Wayne County’s 2016 turnout was more than 60,000 votes less than 2016."
?
"Trump was running against the unlikable hag who could never pull off the fiction of being Mrs. First Black President."
Yah. Just the first woman president.
It was about time.
She wanted it.
mockturtle,
How big is the margin of fraud going to be, if Zogby is correct about November 2020 based on current polling?
Quit with the hypotheticals and offer a number.
BTW, I am quite confident Trump will scuff up any of the potential Democratic nominees.
The numbers for Democratics will get worse.
Ya gotta enjoy Dems dealing with Biden's obvious slips against their prior bloviating/speculating about Trump's impending dementia.
Poor Chuck.
What will he do?
Birkel, hoping to spark some sort of all-night debate, counters: mockturtle,
How big is the margin of fraud going to be, if Zogby is correct about November 2020 based on current polling?
Quit with the hypotheticals and offer a number.
First, I have as much faith in polls as I do in the Easter Bunny. Second, it is not possible to estimate voter fraud as we don't know the breadth of the problem. And the PTB don't want to know.
Bush lost due to Perot and Read My Lips. Clinton also ran a good campaign.
#YangGang2020
Too bad he has no chance to win.
mockturtle:
I offer, again, that Zogby's poll is an admission against interest.
A Lefty pollster is sending an alarm the 3X of the black vote and 1.5X of the latino vote is already in Trump's camp.
That's not Rasmussen.
It's John Zogby.
His brother runs the Arab American Institute.
He's usually push-polling at this point.
And he oversampled the hell out of Democratics to show neck-and-neck races against the leading Democratics.
But inside those polls are the numbers that matter.
And I'm trying to get people to concentrate on the internals.
Those internals are not reflected on MSNBC or in the NYT.
Regular black and latino folks give Trump relatively extraordinary approval.
In public.
To pollsters.
It's astonishing.
Black is the New Orange.
Chuck: after working about eight consecutive elections for the Michigan Republicans and the RNLA, in 2016 I said to hell with it. I wasn’t going to work for a Trump election.
Wow. Really? You would think that someone who was trying to prove himself a Lifelong Republican (not, you know, a MOBY!) would have gotten his Eight Consecutive Elections out there in the open a few years back.
Oh well.
And the deal, Life Long Republican, was that I hold my nose and support the Romneys and McCains, in exchange for which you return the favor down the road. But when it was YOUR turn to live up to the deal, you refused to even work for the Republican nominee for President (although I doubt that was an option for you anyway).
You are going to have to crawl back on your knees. Better start understand exactly what you need forgiveness for now, because I think we should leave you guys wandering the political wilderness for a decade.
Birkel @ 11:57: I hope you--and Zogby--are right. IMO, most blacks and Hispanics [and perhaps most whites] are fed up with the LBGTQ, etc., etc., agenda and are opposed to abortion. The POC in my family are pro-Trump.
Chuck wrote:
"Lol. As usual, you totally do not understand the story you are talking about."
Then explain it to us, Chuck. How did the precinct have only 50 ballots but totals that indicated 300 had been filled out? Where did the other 250 ballots go? There was a chance to actually find out by doing the recount, but then the recount was suddenly stopped. What happened after that? I know Michigan was supposed to do an audit, but did they?
And if there is massive fraud in Detroit, then it really isn't much of a surprise to find that you are a Republican poll watcher for the area. I mean, it would make perfect sense to anyone who reads your comments here. Do you role play being Republican there, too?
I'll say this, for normal working folks such things as proposals to double taxes, outlaw private insurance, take guns, stack courts, end electoral college, replace oil with whatever, open borders to all, free income, etc., *may* matter more than mean tweets by Trump.
And by *may* matter I don't think it will be in a positive light.
9/2/19, 11:27 AM
Yancey Ward said...
And if there is massive fraud in Detroit, then it really isn't much of a surprise to find that you are a Republican poll watcher for the area. I mean, it would make perfect sense to anyone who reads your comments here. Do you role play being Republican there, too?
9/2/19, 11:29 AM
I'll add this. The Democratic fraud machine far excels the Republican dirty tricks apparatus. It is like the teacher to the student. And a poor student at that.
But nothing would surprise me less than picking some young leftist, Progressive, square-jawed-thinking dummy, and telling him to enlist in the Republican party and work their system as an infiltrator. Get on their mailing lists and be at confidential occasions to eavesdrop and pass on What's learned. A Republican mole, or rather a Democrat mole in the GOP.
As a voter living in California I'd like to add that nobody checked my ID at the voting booth. Nobody cared who I was or if I was even in the right area. It would have been very, very easy for a corrupt political group to run up the vote totals.
The GOP really missed an opportunity by not hammering in paper ballots and voter ID in all 50 states during the hysteria over Russian election stealing.
"But nothing would surprise me less than picking some young leftist, Progressive, square-jawed-thinking dummy, and telling him to enlist in the Republican party and work their system as an infiltrator. Get on their mailing lists and be at confidential occasions to eavesdrop and pass on What's learned. A Republican mole, or rather a Democrat mole in the GOP."
I'll go one further, I have no doubt a number went for election as republicans to screw with the primaries, and a few even got elected.
I was thinking of Chuck, naturally, but certainly, there could be hundreds or thousands of such double agents in the Republican Party. Who would catch them? Who would punish them?
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