Althouse: "Do not use this map to make decisions."

September 1, 2019

"Do not use this map to make decisions."

157 comments:

Paco Wové said...: Whatever model produced that light green track has a lot of explaining to do.; 9/1/19, 10:00 AM
Michael K said...: Steve Uhr and that Canadian ex-PM will be so disappointed.; 9/1/19, 10:01 AM
The Godfather said...: This is what ALL maps of the projected course of ANY hurricane look like. When I lived in south Florida we always assumed the worst and acted accordingly.; 9/1/19, 10:03 AM
mandrewa said...: The Tropical Tidbits channel on YouTube is very good at explaining what is happening, and what might happen, and why.

The man behind it is Levi Cowan and he is working on his PhD in tropical meteorology. He has a gift for explaining what is happening in detail with these storms.

What it boils down to as far as the implications right now is that this could turn into nothing much as far as Florida is concerned, that is no more than tropical storm level winds, or it could turn into quite a disaster, with level 4 or level 3 hurricane winds sustained on parts of Florida for more than 24 hours. That would be pretty extreme.; 9/1/19, 10:14 AM
rhhardin said...: Hurricane news should be understood as cow pie bingo.; 9/1/19, 10:14 AM
stevew said...: As if you could.

That green line resembles the track of our boat during a Marblehead to Halifax Race a few years ago. As we approached the western end of Nova Scotia the wind died and the tide turned sucking us in toward the Bay of Fundy. Good times.; 9/1/19, 10:14 AM
David Begley said...: The science is settled.; 9/1/19, 10:15 AM
John henry said...: Where does the map come from? Looks like the national hurricane center noaa map.

If we can't use that map to make decisions, what map should we use?

Yeah I know not to trust the maps. Dorian was supposed to pass south and west of PR. It passed north and east. We were supposed to have severe rain and flooding wed. We had it thursday.

It's not much better than guesswork but it's all we've got. We have to make decisions based on it.

John Henry; 9/1/19, 10:23 AM
Paco Wové said...: My favorite loop-de-looping hurricane remains Elena, which I got to experience from high ground on the west coast of FL. She just couldn't tear herself away from the state! Exactly 34 years ago.; 9/1/19, 10:26 AM
Original Mike said...: "Whatever model produced that light green track has a lot of explaining to do."

The green track, suddenly aware he had lost the pack, hustled to catch up.; 9/1/19, 10:26 AM
rhhardin said...: Same-sense rotations merge, opposite-sense rotations bounce off each other.; 9/1/19, 10:26 AM
Original Mike said...: "If we can't use that map to make decisions, what map should we use?"

That's the problem with all weather forecasts. You can't trust them. In the case of hurricanes, of course, those decisions can become life or death.; 9/1/19, 10:28 AM
Rob said...: They probably added that instruction for Trump’s benefit.; 9/1/19, 10:29 AM
Tom T. said...: So, was there ever actually a track showing a significant change of landfall in Florida, or was that always just hype?; 9/1/19, 10:36 AM
Derek Kite said...: I was thinking yesterday that at least with a hurricane the media can't mess up too badly. Then as i watch the reports they are reporting diligently a change in projections. Has it actually hit landfall anywhere yet?

I'm betting on the green track.; 9/1/19, 10:39 AM
rcocean said...: Most of these hurricanes seem to go through the same news cycle:

1) Big Hurricane coming, we're all going to Die!
2) Weakened Hurricane will hit soon, but take all precautions.
3) Look at that Reporter out in the wind and rain.
4) Its all over - a couple people died and but there's still flooding
5) Back to the regular news: Did you know Trump is an idiot?; 9/1/19, 10:48 AM
Tank said...: To run away or not to run away, that is the question. To be determined.; 9/1/19, 10:53 AM
Birkel said...: Riding right up the coast and pushing water on shore is very dangerous.
The rain and wind can cost a lot of damage.
But it looks like the worst case scenarios are unlikely.
Let's keep hoping we dodge the worst of it.

And maybe a prayer, for those so inclined.; 9/1/19, 10:58 AM
mockturtle said...: I'm betting on the green track.

Good idea, Derek: Betting on a hurricane track. How would one figure the odds?; 9/1/19, 10:59 AM
Darkisland said...: Original Mike,

I agree that you can't trust the map. I know that from personal experience with 6 hurricanes, a dozen near misses and 15-20 scares.

But I have to make a decision what to do. If untrustworthy data is all I have to go on, I am left to use that.

The alternative is to make no decision, stand in one place and spin in circles.

John Henry; 9/1/19, 11:06 AM
Original Mike said...: "To run away or not to run away, that is the question. To be determined."

I would never consider living in hurricane country.; 9/1/19, 11:09 AM
tim in vermont said...: My “it always turns right” rule looks like it has held once again.; 9/1/19, 11:10 AM
Paco Wové said...: Here's an interesting related anti-factoid: Everything you know about Hurricane Camille is wrong. By "everything", I mean "that story about people having a 'Hurricane Party' and all dying". And by "you", I mean "me".

"Bourdin, who has picked up McKay's mantle, tells of a History Channel documentary in which he was interviewed. He explained the Richelieu dead and the false party rumor, but none of that script got into the documentary." The History Channel: We were Fake News before it was cool!; 9/1/19, 11:10 AM
Original Mike said...: "But I have to make a decision what to do. If untrustworthy data is all I have to go on, I am left to use that."

Yeah, the disclaimer on the map is ridiculous. Of course people are going to use it to make decisions. They have to.; 9/1/19, 11:10 AM
Chuck said...: I'd expect a blog post like this from a Bill Maher. A cheap laugh.

I would not expect a blog post like this from a law prof. Now, I understand that we could expect a blog post like this from a retired law prof whose blog is functioning as entertainment.

The computer model map is of course informative and it represents information that would have been unthinkable 25 years ago, in terms of the detail and the way it is being given nearly instantaneous distribution worldwide over the internet. It is tremendously valuable information for everyone who is interested.

So why the "Do not use this map to make decisions"? Very clearly -- and a law prof should know this and say this to all legal laypersons -- the real meaning of the declaration is to cut off liability from anyone who relies on the information to make some decision that results in claimed damages in the event that the hurricane goes in a different direction, and a claimant says, "But I used the map to make my decision! The map creators should be liable to me for my damages!"

I suppose that I should not be surprised by the blog hostess's editorial choice. It was a good one, to allow her commenters to tee off and have some fun on a Sunday.

On a more serious note, I had thought that she would have looked at the map, with the hurricane steaming toward Mar-A-Lago before making a hard right turn to the north, and congratulate President Donald J. Trump for his skillful use of the U.S. military's nuclear deterrence capabilities.

Let's drop the Big One now.; 9/1/19, 11:11 AM
rcocean said...: If you see 10 hurricanes coming down the road, 9 will fall into the ditch.; 9/1/19, 11:11 AM
n.n said...: So, there is a one in 20 track chance that Dorian will be an abusive friend with "benefits". 19 in 20 track chance that he will be merely a blowhard. 100% chance that he will huff and puff and restore a thermodynamic balance. On the precautionary principle, we should turn the world upside down and inside out. The end is nigh.; 9/1/19, 11:11 AM
Seeing Red said...: My decision is not to go South East this week.; 9/1/19, 11:12 AM
tim in vermont said...: It just goes to show that nuclear deterance works.; 9/1/19, 11:14 AM
rcocean said...: I fully expected this sort of post from a Law Professor named Ann Althouse. And I know EVERYONE wants my thoughts about this blog, the commentators, and what posts are or are not worthy of a law professor - but I have better things to do.; 9/1/19, 11:14 AM
tim in vermont said...: I see Chuck beat my to my joke. Well, I stole it from Twitter anyways.; 9/1/19, 11:15 AM
rcocean said...: Hemingway used to leave Key west/Cuba during the hurricane season and go hunting in Wyoming and Idaho. Why don't we all do that?; 9/1/19, 11:16 AM
Paco Wové said...: Whoops, hit 'publish' a little prematurely there. Anyway, it appears – from the previous link, at least – that Camille, being a truly massive storm, got a lot of national media attention, and when the media descended upon Pass Christian, they found a crazy woman willing to fill their ears with hugely embellished stories of death and destruction. The crazy woman's stories were much more interesting than anything the other survivors were saying, so the media ran with her stories, and they became part of the Hurricane Camille canon. They were such tasty stories that even 50 years later, nobody seems to care that much that they appear to be a pack of lies.; 9/1/19, 11:17 AM
mandrewa said...: Of course for anyone in the northern Bahamas that has not obeyed the evacuation order the situation has surely gotten quite interesting:

180 mile per hour winds (right now)
220 mile per hour wind gusts (right now)

I looked up Coopers Town in the Bahamas. It's elevation is zero!

What's the storm surge in Coopers Town right now?; 9/1/19, 11:18 AM
chickelit said...: The Picture Of Dorian's Way; 9/1/19, 11:22 AM
Wince said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 9/1/19, 11:25 AM
Chuck said...: AAT said...
I see Chuck beat my to my joke. Well, I stole it from Twitter anyways.

The only difference was that I spelled "deterrence" correctly.; 9/1/19, 11:26 AM
David Begley said...: These are predictions based on models but I imagine the data is good and just a few stats. Now make predictions about the end of the century and with all sorts of variables.

The science is settled!; 9/1/19, 11:28 AM
Anonymous said...: Paco: ...and when the media descended upon Pass Christian, they found a crazy woman willing to fill their ears with hugely embellished stories of death and destruction. The crazy woman's stories were much more interesting than anything the other survivors were saying, so the media ran with her stories, and they became part of the Hurricane Camille canon. They were such tasty stories that even 50 years later, nobody seems to care that much that they appear to be a pack of lies.

Fascinating. Growing up on the Gulf Coast, the "Richelieu Hurricane Party" was among the sacred stories of My People (the Credulous Children of the Hurricanes tribe.)

That's one doozy of an urban legend. Doing a quick look-up I noticed that the media-indulged crazy lady was even more colorful than the Richelieu urban legend suggests. Per your link:

"Gerlach claimed to be the only survivor, and is the one most quoted about a hurricane party on the third floor. Yet, she and her sixth husband were asleep in their second-floor apartment when the building disintegrated and she landed in the swirling abyss. Many Camille survivors would not talk to the media, but she would and remained in demand at Camille anniversary memorials. Her interviews kept the legend alive.

In 1982, when on trial for murdering her 11th husband, Gerlach's lawyer used an insanity defense, claiming her Camille experience and the resulting drug and alcohol abuse caused her to kill her husband. She was found guilty, sentenced to life imprisonment, but was paroled in 1992." [my bold]

Loved the bit about Cronkite, too:

"The voice of Walter Cronkite, one of the most respected TV newsmen of 1969, lost its comforting timbre when he told the world about Hurricane Camille and its destruction of the Mississippi Gulf Coast. The camera panned a cement slab littered with debris, which was all that remained of a three-story luxury apartment complex.

'This is the site of the Richelieu Apartments in Pass Christian, Mississippi,' Cronkite said. 'This is the place where 23 people laughed in the face of death. And where 23 people died.'"

A quick search reveals no video of this on youtube or elsewhere, alas.; 9/1/19, 11:28 AM
J. Farmer said...: I live about 40 miles north of the green track on the west coast. Have all the standard provisions, but our home is in a low flood risk zone.; 9/1/19, 11:29 AM
Wince said...: Althouse said...
"Do not use this map to make decisions."

You shouldn't be so "indifferent".

Ironically, that map resembles an "indifference map" in economics, which seeks to explain how consumers make decisions about trade-offs between goods.

Except the curves of indifference (isoquants) are nonintersecting.; 9/1/19, 11:30 AM
Fritz said...: Most of these hurricanes seem to go through the same news cycle:

1) Big Hurricane coming, we're all going to Die!
1a) Blame Global Warming
2) Weakened Hurricane will hit soon, but take all precautions.
3) Look at that Reporter out in the wind and rain.
4) Its all over - a couple people died and but there's still flooding
5) Back to the regular news: Did you know Trump is an idiot?; 9/1/19, 11:30 AM
Wince said...: Then again, I saw Hillary Clinton's face in Sarah Huckabee-Sanders knee.; 9/1/19, 11:33 AM
mockturtle said...: The Picture Of Dorian's Way.

Nicely done, chickelit!; 9/1/19, 11:37 AM
jaydub said...: My brother in law, a retired meteorologist from NOAA is the best I have ever seen at hurricane forecasts - he's never missed one that I can remember. He has a closed FB page where he and some of his former colleagues now do weather guessing for fun. Their consensus at the moment is that it's going to hit NC around Wilmington, but he doesn't try to really nail down the forecast until about 48 hours before it hits. His FB page has a "always follow local advice and authorities" warning to avoid liability as well, although they sneer at the Weather Channel.; 9/1/19, 11:38 AM
Michael K said...: Hurricane Camille and its destruction of the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

I had a girlfriend who grew up in Ocean Springs MS. Camille destroyed everything on the Gulf side of the highway that would become I 10. I was there visiting in 2004 after the hurricane missed NO (the American college meeting) and hit Pascagoula. I hadn't seen her in years and we spent some time looking around Ocean Springs. She had moved back a few years before. The next year, Katrina hit Ocean Springs hard and wiped out everything on the Gulf side of I 10 again.

Ocean Springs is east of Pass Christian.; 9/1/19, 11:43 AM
Fernandinande said...: Breaking News: Series Of Concentric Circles Emanating From Glowing Red Dot; 9/1/19, 11:46 AM
Fernandinande said...: Everything you know about Hurricane Camille is wrong.

What if you don't know anything about Hurricane Camille?

Asking for a friend, who says "If ignorance is wrong, I don't want to be right."; 9/1/19, 11:52 AM
narciso said...: The new york times had that headline, because it wasnt apocalyptic enough (except for the green track); 9/1/19, 11:57 AM
todd galle said...: J. Farmer, God Speed and good luck.; 9/1/19, 11:59 AM
mockturtle said...: J. Farmer, God Speed and good luck.

Yes, God bless [whether you believe in Him or not] and keep you safe as well as others here who live in the danger zone.; 9/1/19, 12:02 PM
tim in vermont said...: "The only difference was that I spelled "deterrence" correctly.”

We know you are a nazi, Chuck.; 9/1/19, 12:02 PM
iowan2 said...: I would not expect a blog post like this from a law prof.

WTF is this supposed to translate into? "and you a law Profesor.." mindless blather that is at word salad level of stupid.

But then we have the rest of the lengthy post providing proof of the stupidity?

My guess is a person of superior knowledge, training, education, experience and morals would create a blog that would steal all of the readers of this blog. Right? Am I right, huh, huh? Right; 9/1/19, 12:05 PM
todd galle said...: I almost hate to say it given what's on offer storm wise, but we're enjoying an absolutely lovely day in Harrisburg, PA. Nice breezes, clouds to keep the sun away, fireworks tonight after the ball game which we can watch from our deck. I do have to work Labor Day though, public history can be a b*tch.; 9/1/19, 12:05 PM
Browndog said...: 24 hours ago, every single computer model that I saw had it hitting Florida. Not hitting Florida was beyond the real of scientific possibilities just yesterday.

Weather related modeling has been infected with fake global warming data, thus cannot be accurate.; 9/1/19, 12:05 PM
Fernandinande said...: "Doctor, if you have a forty-four year old white female, who has a history of some 13 marriages, the first one taking place at approximately 15 years of age, having had three children, excuse me, four children, four live births, at least one abortion, who has had numerous hospitalizations in Kesler Air Force Base, Gulf Coast Community Hospital, Gulfport Memorial Hospital, Howard Memorial Hospital, who has had episodes of hysteria, suicidal tendencies, and admitted abuser of drugs and alcohol, who on January 7, 1981, shot and killed, as she fired five shots into her husband's body, excuse me, into the body of a man she was living with, having previously divorced this man, some eight weeks prior, with that hypothetical, do you have an opinion as to the sanity or insanity of that person on that date? [Objection! Run-on sentence!]

The remainder of the iceberg of Gerlach's psyche includes the fact that she is a "hooker" who owns 14 to 15 wigs. Apparently, Gerlach's wearing of different wigs is symptomatic of distinct personality changes. One of her daughters who was a potsmoker, hooker and had been institutionalized for mental problems had committed suicide."
...

"Q. Now, when you married after you were married to Jerry Teeple, you were married to who next?
A. Larry Potter. [!]

Q. How long were you married to him?
A. Just a few months.

Q. Then you married who?
A. Jim Nix.

Q. That is the one that testified here?
A. Yes, sir.

Q. I believe he said that you all were married forty-five days?
A. Yes, sir. Just a little short while.

Q. Then who did you marry?
A. Joe Woods, just for seven days.

Q. Seven days?
A. Yes, sir.; 9/1/19, 12:07 PM
narciso said...: Can one be too confident about these projections, likely, but this is the same method behind the dire apocalyptic skydragon scenarios; 9/1/19, 12:07 PM
narciso said...: Guess the reason rhey choose to excuse:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/qz.com/1698702/hurricane-path-prediction/amp/; 9/1/19, 12:17 PM
Anonymous said...: iowan2: WTF is this supposed to translate into? "and you a law Profesor.." mindless blather that is at word salad level of stupid.

For some Chuck posts the only rational response is "Fuck off, Chuck".; 9/1/19, 12:19 PM
mandrewa said...: To answer my previous question, according to the National Hurricane Center, as of right now, the storm surge in the northern Bahamas is expected to be "18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves."

So this raises a question in my mind. How does one build a house to survive two-story high ocean surges (the elevation is about zero in these areas)?

Now given this doesn't happen every year, but it is pretty predictable that it will happen.

And I just checked, there are vacation homes for rent on these islands.; 9/1/19, 12:24 PM
narciso said...: The post is a rorschach, now if all the tracks were on land, the times would treat it like holy writ.; 9/1/19, 12:25 PM
Gospace said...: "Florida liberals are buying generators and gasoline instead of windmills and solar panels in preparation of Hurricane Dorian."

Quoted from someone else’s comments elsewhere.; 9/1/19, 12:27 PM
Anonymous said...: Fernandistein @12:07:

Why am I imagining the appellant attorney here as a hyperchicken?; 9/1/19, 12:30 PM
todd galle said...: Browndog-
Regarding our weathercasters: It matters not, I've been assured we'll all be dead in 12 years or so, global warming, rising sea levels and so on. No more worrying about putting extra into the retirement fund for me.; 9/1/19, 12:31 PM
Left Bank of the Charles said...: The light green track where Mar-a-Lago gets hit twice would be fun, except for the surrounding area of Florida.; 9/1/19, 12:31 PM
tim in vermont said...: It would be cool if Chuck were as anal about logic as he is about spelling. For instance, he wouldn’t think that a sentence like this from his Bulwark article “I know those people weren’t there because I wasn’t there” makes more sense than “I don’t know whether those very fine people were there or not because I wasn’t there.”

Chuck chooses the first one as some kind of steel trap logic.; 9/1/19, 12:34 PM
Chuck said...: Blogger Angle-Dyne, Samurai Buzzard said...
iowan2: WTF is this supposed to translate into? "and you a law Profesor.." mindless blather that is at word salad level of stupid.

For some Chuck posts the only rational response is "Fuck off, Chuck".

That’s actually my goal with most of my comments; to write things where the response cannot be, “Chuck is wrong and here’s why...”. Rather, the only available Trump-lover response is the meaningless, “Fuck off, Chuck.”; 9/1/19, 12:35 PM
tim in vermont said...: "he light green track where Mar-a-Lago gets hit twice would be fun, “

Yeah, that is one of the most heavily Democrat and, incidentally, historically black areas of Florida. I bet you would be loving it, meanwhile Trump would be fine whatever happened, as would the other wealthy denizens of Palm Beach Island. The track was probably put in there by hand.; 9/1/19, 12:36 PM
tim in vermont said...: I think that green track homes in on the intersection of MLK Boulevard and Barack Obama Boulevard. I personally think it would suck if it hit there. Better to go out ro see.; 9/1/19, 12:38 PM
tim in vermont said...: "“Chuck is wrong and here’s why...”.

I just wrote one like that and you will ignore it because you are blinded by your hatred of Trump.; 9/1/19, 12:40 PM
Tank said...: jaydub said...

My brother in law, a retired meteorologist from NOAA is the best I have ever seen at hurricane forecasts - he's never missed one that I can remember. He has a closed FB page where he and some of his former colleagues now do weather guessing for fun. Their consensus at the moment is that it's going to hit NC around Wilmington...

Well, that would pretty much be me.; 9/1/19, 12:44 PM
cubanbob said...: Left Bank of the Charles said...
The light green track where Mar-a-Lago gets hit twice would be fun, except for the surrounding area of Florida."

Was at Mar-A-Lago last weekend. It's absolutely lovely but it is Trumpian in that it's ostentatious. It has a ballroom that can hold eight hundred. Trump built it for his wedding to Melania. Now I would like to ask you what kind of an asshole would wish Trump's home and homes all around the area ( and lower class home are nearby) which is what would happen if Trump's home got a direct hit ? I'm a bit irritable with ashole comments like yours since if it were to hit Trumps house my house would get hit with 130 mph winds plus wind driven storm surge on top of the King Tide. I just hope that the builder of my house didn't cheat too much and the extra roof reinforcement I had done will avoid a massive damage to my home. By luck I happen to be out of town at a wedding but the prospect of coming back to a disaster is bad enough without the asshole political comments.; 9/1/19, 12:57 PM
Danno said...: Blogger rcocean said...Hemingway used to leave Key west/Cuba during the hurricane season and go hunting in Wyoming and Idaho. Why don't we all do that?

Because there is a chance of being hit by Dick Cheney???; 9/1/19, 1:00 PM
Michael K said...: Rather, the only available Trump-lover response is the meaningless, “Fuck off, Chuck.”

Why would any rational mind wish to read what you post ?

It is all Trump hate and not very well reasoned at that.; 9/1/19, 1:04 PM
narciso said...: Yes levi alomg with ryan maue and joe bastardi are my go too sites.; 9/1/19, 1:05 PM
Michael K said...: How does one build a house to survive two-story high ocean surges (the elevation is about zero in these areas)?

The nice homes on the barrier island that my daughter worked at in Charleston, SC are on stilts about ten feet high. I have also seen some on the redneck riviera region on the Gulf.; 9/1/19, 1:07 PM
jaydub said...: Keep your head down and your powder dry, Tank. BTW he actually said Camp Legeune, but didn't figure most people would know where that was.; 9/1/19, 1:07 PM
Chuck said...: Skylark you miserable hateful lying sack of shit.

First, you are steering this page off course by attacking me with the wonderful article by Robert Tracinski in The Bulwark.

Second, since you chose to do that, I will tell all of these readers that you got it wrong and made up what you put in quotation marks.” There is no such quote. Here are the closest two paragraphs to what I think you were trying to address:

What if there really was another group of protesters there that day, and that’s who Trump was referring to? Well, there’s the problem. No such group exists. This mythical second group of protesters is like the “second shooter” in conspiracy theories about the Kennedy assassination. I’ve found people who insist to me that such a group was there because the “Charlottesville Hoax” mythology requires it to exist—but I haven’t found a single shred of actual confirmation. It’s almost as if they have adopted a false memory.

That’s what originally set me off about this Trump claim. I live in the Charlottesville area, and I know very fine people who oppose the removal of the monuments based on high-minded notions about preserving history. I’m one of them. So I know that we weren’t there that night. Only the white nationalists were there.

You can interpret those paragraphs any god damned way you want to . But you can’t make up stuff and put it into quotation marks and pretend that you are the accurate one.

What a fucking weasel you are.; 9/1/19, 1:09 PM
rehajm said...: Those tracks are different computer models of 4-5 days of extrapolated weather. You know the same computers that know with scientific certainty man made induced catastrophic climate change is just around the corner.

Another corner. Not those ones they warned about the last few times.; 9/1/19, 1:18 PM
rehajm said...: That green one is the computer AOC people use..; 9/1/19, 1:18 PM
tim in vermont said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 9/1/19, 1:26 PM
tim in vermont said...: "I’m one of them. So I know that we weren’t there that night. Only the white nationalists were there.”

LOL. See, you can’t even do simple logic. As a lawyer, did you ever take any courses in logic. You know, the ones about proving a negative, because the “shred of evidence” was in the New York Times article on the protests.

So, calling me a “lying sack of shit” doesn’t change the ancient principle of logic that all it takes is a single. counterexample to disprove a negative. Even if that counterexample comes from the New York Times and you refuse to read it.

The writer claims to have proven it by exhaustion, but that’s all but impossible in the real world in a case like this.; 9/1/19, 1:28 PM
mandrewa said...: "The nice homes on the barrier island that my daughter worked at in Charleston, SC are on stilts about ten feet high. I have also seen some on the redneck riviera region on the Gulf."

Yes, I've seen houses like that, but if the water goes much above ten feet then the forces on the house must be enormous. I would think it would pull those stilts with their concrete plugs right out of the ground. That is assuming that the stilts didn't simply just break.; 9/1/19, 1:31 PM
jaydub said...: rehajm said: "Those tracks are different computer models of 4-5 days of extrapolated weather. You know the same computers that know with scientific certainty man made induced catastrophic climate change is just around the corner."

No, those tracks are from specific hurricane models and use measurable and predictable weather systems (pressure ridges, jet stream, observed water temps, hurricane hunter flights, etc) for inputs. The trick, so I'm told, is predicting how those factors are going to develop and influence the storm.; 9/1/19, 1:35 PM
Ralph L said...: Camp Legeune

Where they pea in public. And which is not far from Seymour Johnson AFB, but they both go on the German thread.; 9/1/19, 1:35 PM
mockturtle said...: Skylark you miserable hateful lying sack of shit.

Chuck has such a way with words. Always searching for le mot juste.; 9/1/19, 1:37 PM
Ralph L said...: the stilts didn't simply just break

On the Carolina coast, it's more likely to take the sand out underneath them. My aunt's family's lot at Holden Beach is still underwater from Hazel in the 50's. The house probably went to Bermuda.; 9/1/19, 1:38 PM
gilbar said...: Original Mike said...
"If we can't use that map to make decisions, what map should we use?"
That's the problem with all weather forecasts. You can't trust them. In the case of hurricanes, of course, those decisions can become life or death.

That's because Hurricanes are WEATHER, NOT CLIMATE
CLIMATE, we can predict, with 100% accuracy; 100 years in the future, and to within TWO degrees
WEATHER, we can't predict accurately, further than 90 minutes ahead

REASONS. People can remember for more than 90 minutes; but less than 100 years; 9/1/19, 1:40 PM
Michael K said...: I would think it would pull those stilts with their concrete plugs right out of the ground.

I dunno. After 150 years, you'd think they give that up if it didn't work.

I have no hurricane experience but in southern CA, some beach houses are built on pilings 30 feet into the sand. Some stormy winters I have seen them 20 feet in the air. In summer the sand comes back.; 9/1/19, 1:47 PM
DanTheMan said...: We are on the east cost of Florida, and hunkered down. We are as prepared as we can be, and have a room reserved in a nearby hotel in case we need to bug out.

Florida trivia: DisneyWorld has underground power lines, and generally never loses power. It's a good place to be during a hurricane.

My heart goes out to those in the Bahamas who are getting the full impact of a cat 5.; 9/1/19, 1:49 PM
DanTheMan said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 9/1/19, 1:49 PM
jimbino said...: Calling the probability map of the predicted course of a hurricane a "cone" is ignorant. A cone is a 3-dimensional object that cannot be accommodated on a 2-dimensional surface. Its more like a conic section that might better be called a "fan" or some such.

It's unfortunate that science is being adversely influenced by lazy speakers of English, who glibly say "cone" or use the singular "they," "media is" and "data is."; 9/1/19, 1:50 PM
gilbar said...: A Life Long Liberal resorts to potty mouth, saying...
Skylark you miserable hateful lying sack of shit.

And Again, we see someone has used up ALL his arguments

We ALSO see, that he continues to say:
I have PROOF that no one other than white nationalists were there;
'cause i have EYE-WITNESS testimony, FROM SOMEONE THAT WAS THERE! that states that:
A) HE WAS THERE!!!!
B) HE WAS NOT A WHITE NATIONALIST!!

put the pipe down, Chuck; you've smoked enough for the day; 9/1/19, 1:51 PM
gilbar said...: jimbino said...
A cone is a 3-dimensional object that cannot be accommodated on a 2-dimensional surface. Its more like a conic section that might better be called a "fan" or some such.

I totally agree with you, but and however;
an argumentist might say that the third dimension of their cone is time (x, y and t).
I'd like to point out, that I'M Not saying that; just trying to get people's minds back on MAPS; 9/1/19, 1:55 PM
Original Mike said...: Chuck said...." -- the real meaning of the declaration is to cut off liability from anyone who relies on the information to make some decision that results in claimed damages..."

Hey, Chuck and I agree on something! "Fucking Lawyers!"; 9/1/19, 1:59 PM
Fernandinande said...: Calling the probability map of the predicted course of a hurricane a "cone" is ignorant.

Do you really think people working at NOAA don't what a cone is? And you're also wrong about data and media because words. Their meanings change.

Definition of the NHC Track Forecast Cone

"The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of circles (not shown) along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over a 5-year sample fall within the circle. The circle radii defining the cones in 2019 for the Atlantic, Eastern North Pacific, and Central North Pacific basins are given in the table below."; 9/1/19, 2:08 PM
narciso said...: it's more of a triangle, a cone would be three, one say the pattern forms a funnel,; 9/1/19, 2:10 PM
rehajm said...: No, those tracks are from specific hurricane models and use measurable and predictable weather systems (pressure ridges, jet stream, observed water temps, hurricane hunter flights, etc) for inputs. The trick, so I'm told, is predicting how those factors are going to develop and influence the storm.

We must be looking at different spaghetti models...; 9/1/19, 2:19 PM
Leland said...: I wonder how much money has gone to building better climate models that could have been spent building better hurricane models. Start with the simpler system.; 9/1/19, 2:21 PM
Michael K said...: It's unfortunate that science is being adversely influenced by lazy speakers of English

The speech police. No doubt in more than one way,.; 9/1/19, 2:21 PM
Bruce Hayden said...: “That's because Hurricanes are WEATHER, NOT CLIMATE
CLIMATE, we can predict, with 100% accuracy; 100 years in the future, and to within TWO degrees
WEATHER, we can't predict accurately, further than 90 minutes ahead”

I don’t think that is correct about climate. The climate”scientists” can claim that, but the astrophysicists, etc laugh at them. That is because the biggest drivers of global temperature are solar radiation, the Earth’s wobble, and its orbit, all affecting, and controlling to a great tent, the amount of solar radiation arriving and where on the planet. I expect that orbit can be somewhat predicted. Less so the other two. They are still discovering what they don’t know in those areas. After that, it appears to be El Niño/La Niña, which scientists probably have moderate success at predicting short term (several years), but the errors will accumulate over the century.

Of course, if NOAA is still around in a century, they will likely have fudged the global climate temperatures they calculate to coincide with their long term predictions of where they expected the climate to be, as they have been doing so energetically these last several years.; 9/1/19, 2:23 PM
Michael K said...: Do you really think people working at NOAA don't what a cone is?

jimbino thinks hurricanes are flat. No third dimension. Just like the earth you see in those maps.; 9/1/19, 2:23 PM
WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...: yikes. This thing is pounding the Bahamas at cat 5.

Some early footage of the damage linked at
https://twitter.com/WPBF_Cris?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1168214909882130432&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wunderground.com%2Fcat6%2FHistoric-Catastrophic-Hurricane-Dorian-Pounding-Bahamas-185-mph-Winds

"Hurricane Dorian will deliver a punishing, historic blow to the Northwest Bahamas. On Sunday, the core of the storm will move across Great Abaco and Little Abaco islands (population 17,000), where catastrophic damage can be expected. Dorian will then then slow to a crawl on Monday as it moves near or just north of Grand Bahama Island (population 51,000). Dorian’s forward speed may be as little as 2 - 3 mph on Monday, which will prolong the devastating hurricane impacts on Grand Bahama Island. Storm surge is predicted to reach the 18 – 23 foot range at onshore locations in the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. "; 9/1/19, 2:34 PM
traditionalguy said...: Fear not. Trump threatened the hurricane with nukes if it heads towards Mar-a Lago and it has turned to the east. Another reason the Bahamas need nukes.; 9/1/19, 2:35 PM
Bob Smith said...: Wouldn’t it be a hoot if after all the talk about “karmatic justice for Trump” that thing smashed Massachusetts flat?; 9/1/19, 2:35 PM
Bruce Hayden said...: I must be missing something. I assumed that the “cone” was a probability distribution, and Fernandistein‘s explanation seems fairly good. Assuming a normal distribution, it would be fairly easy to plot the probality in three dimensions (2D distance and time), assuming that the outer lines indicate 60% probability.; 9/1/19, 2:39 PM
Old and slow said...: Christ on a bike! I know I'm pissing in the wind here, but why do so many engage with the annoying twit of all time? He's not flippin' worth the effort! And might possibly lose interest and go elsewhere if ignored. You know who I am referring to, I just refuse to use the name.

And yes, I do realize that I just joined in... I'll keep schtum now.

Daniel; 9/1/19, 2:44 PM
DanTheMan said...: If you are in Florida, and thinking about getting out of town, this real time traffic map is a very handy resource to put on your phone:

https://fl511.com/; 9/1/19, 2:45 PM
narciso said...: 'there but for the grace of god' go all of us, he thinks hes coming to the argument clinic, but just gets abuse instead,; 9/1/19, 2:49 PM
Sammy Finkelman said...: Exactly 34 years ago

The peak of the hurricane season is August 25 through September 2nd. It’s almost confined really to one week.; 9/1/19, 2:49 PM
Sammy Finkelman said...: My only familiarity with the name Dorian is with the story The Picture of Dorian Gray where a portrait but not the person.

That’s what’s going on with Hurricane Dorian, at least in the United States:

Florida sems not to need to worry too badly as long as the hurricane stays 40 miles and not 20 miles offshore. There will be still be a storm surge, aided by the high tide of the new moon.

If it never made landfall, Hurricane Dorian would indeed be well named. But it did strike a portion of the Bahamas; 9/1/19, 2:52 PM
Sammy Finkelman said...: The European weather projections are being relied upon by CBS because they are considered more accurate.

They are more accurate because I think President Clinton deliberately tweaked U.S. hurricane warnings in the mid-1990s to make them overpredict disasters and cause evacualtions and hastily passed appropriation bills. His deeds “live after him” because this is all inside baseball.; 9/1/19, 2:53 PM
Jon Ericson said...: https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/blog-comment-killfile/kpoilnkelonbaapoapibddjaojohnpjf; 9/1/19, 2:53 PM
Narayanan said...: A Natural Phenomenon with disparate impact on the 50 USA - is that Constitutional

Impeach Dorian.; 9/1/19, 2:55 PM
JackWayne said...: Who cares about Dorian? Verlander just pitched a perfect game.; 9/1/19, 3:00 PM
wildswan said...: Out in the heartland on the Mississippi River a system didn't move as expected which caused a high pressure ridge near Florida to stay in place which pushed the hurricane north-east away from Florida. The polling, I mean the models, missed this development in the heartland and its consequences because one of the planes monitoring the hurricane developed mechanical trouble and so there was no new data about the upper altitudes for 24 hours.

The Bahamas are getting pounded.

J Farmer, stay safe.; 9/1/19, 3:02 PM
mockturtle said...: Who cares about Dorian? Verlander just pitched a perfect game.

Looks like it was a no-no, not a perfect game. But still! :-) Wish I could have seen it. Go 'Stros.; 9/1/19, 3:02 PM
Paco Wové said...: "You know who I am referring to"

Actually, I could think of at least 3 candidates for that title. I generally just ignore them all.; 9/1/19, 3:05 PM
Gospace said...: Pressure ridges, jet stream, water temps, are all measurable, sort of. Any weather measurement is simply a snapshot of momentary conditions that change within minutes. Predictions? Call them scientific guesswork. Weather is a chaotic system. Small measurement errors could cause large output changes, or none at all.

As I saw pointed out earlier, two days ago every forecast had Dorian's track within the probability of error going through Florida. Using the measurable fronts, ridges, jet stream, water temps, and the very best and fastest weather supercomputers and computer models. And the storm subsequently tracked outside the error probability track. Major hurricane was predicted, but not class 5. 185 MPH sustained over Great Abaco Island. There's not going to be much left in the way of buildings or infrastructure when the storm passes.; 9/1/19, 3:16 PM
Paco Wové said...: "The Bahamas are getting pounded."

Yeah. I've had the dubious pleasure of riding out a strong cat-5. I hope the people on the Abacos prepared themselves well.; 9/1/19, 3:22 PM
Tank said...: Wish I had a nuke so I could blow that storm away from North Carolina. I’m ready to go or stay, either way. Hope it’s just another false alarm.; 9/1/19, 3:26 PM
Jim at said...: Looks like it was a no-no, not a perfect game.

As close to a perfecto as possible without getting one.
Walked the second batter of the game. That's it.; 9/1/19, 3:48 PM
Marcus Bressler said...: My adult daughter and her doggo and I are all hunkered down 23 miles north of Mar-A-Lago. One of the few things that bothered me today was the political hatred from both sides on Twitter and FB News postings. Oh well, I will probably lose wifi in the near future so I've go that going for me.

THEOLDMAN

Will check in after the storm. I'm off to check to 5 PM update; 9/1/19, 4:03 PM
Bruce Hayden said...: “The polling, I mean the models, missed this development in the heartland and its consequences because one of the planes monitoring the hurricane developed mechanical trouble and so there was no new data about the upper altitudes for 24 hours”

Sounds a bit like what the Japanese faced at Midway. Not 24 hours, but long enough to miss the American carriers that weren’t supposed to be there, until too late.; 9/1/19, 4:08 PM
BudBrown said...: For Florida it's about the turn. Thing's gonna slow down then make a sharp right turn?; 9/1/19, 4:34 PM
mockturtle said...: As close to a perfecto as possible without getting one.
Walked the second batter of the game. That's it.

I'm happy for Verlander. He had a rough few seasons in Detroit.; 9/1/19, 4:41 PM
Mark said...: That really light green track is for when NOAA drops a ton of LSD into the eyewall.; 9/1/19, 4:46 PM
Kirk Parker said...: O'Mike,

"I would never consider living in hurricane country"

Earthquake territory is so much better -- none of this anxiety buildup, just WHAM out of the blue.; 9/1/19, 5:25 PM
Yancey Ward said...: I was living in Newtown, CT in 2011 when Hurricane/Tropical Storm Irene passed through. That was terrifying enough for me. You couldn't pay me to live on the gulf coast or the southeast coast.; 9/1/19, 5:33 PM
heyboom said...: I grew up in hurricane country and now live in earthquake country. Actually, I lived in earthquake and typhoon country for six years growing up in Japan. Hurricane Michael destroyed my hometown, where my older sister still lives and they still haven't come close to recovering yet.; 9/1/19, 5:58 PM
Clyde said...: Every place has its hazards. We don't get earthquakes or blizzards in Florida and not many tornadoes. And hurricanes you can see coming days away and get out if it's too scary. The risk of hurricanes (and the summer heat and humidity) is the price we pay not to shovel snow in the winter. You pays your money and you takes your choice.; 9/1/19, 6:05 PM
Original Mike said...: "Earthquake territory is so much better -- none of this anxiety buildup, just WHAM out of the blue."

I'll stick with our little tornadoes.; 9/1/19, 6:11 PM
donald said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 9/1/19, 6:15 PM
Temujin said...: I'm on the Gulf coast of Florida, pretty much on the upper loop of the green track. No one is taking the green track seriously. However though the meteorologists (local and NOAA types) have been projecting the right turn to the north, every one of them gives out an asterisk with their report. That is- the smallest change in other forces- high or low pressure ridges/troughs coming in, going away, etc., can change how these things move.

All I know is that 2 years ago Irma was supposed to go up the east coast through Miami. But it kept jogging west. And further. And further. Until 1.5 days before it would get here, the local guy came on the TV looking horrified. Though we had our house shuttered up, and had the goods to last a few days or more, Irma was a Cat 4-5. I looked at my wife and said- pack what you need. We're out of here in 30 minutes. Drove up to Atlanta for that one. Irma followed us up there and downed power all around us up there.

These things are unpredictable even as you see them coming. So I'm sure this one is going up the east coast. But I'm sleeping with one eye open.; 9/1/19, 6:25 PM
effinayright said...: Skylark said...
"The light green track where Mar-a-Lago gets hit twice would be fun,

************

But that's the entire point! It's not a real track, generated by a computer. It's a fantasy of a pony-tailed Trump-hating fat guy wedged into a cubicle.

Just you wait...until that's revealed to be true.

It's TDS ...all the way down.; 9/1/19, 6:38 PM
Dr Weevil said...: jaydub (1:35pm):
"No, those tracks are from specific hurricane models and use measurable and predictable weather systems (pressure ridges, jet stream, observed water temps, hurricane hunter flights, etc) for inputs. The trick, so I'm told, is predicting how those factors are going to develop and influence the storm."

Long ago I read one of those things that I never would have thought of myself but found instantly and totally convincing: that the most dangerous hurricanes are the ones that are hardest to predict. The smaller a hurricane, the more it is pushed around by pressure ridges, the jet stream, and so on, which make its path easy to predict with some accuracy. The larger hurricanes bull right through all those things and go wherever they want.; 9/1/19, 6:42 PM
StephenFearby said...: Several days ago, when the various models gave wildly different projected tracts for Dorian, I believe only the European Model projected a track that the other models have now largely gravitated to.

It's not the first time.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/u0TYL-Wvyj_7TauNdNmCEmomM-s=/796x0/arc-anglerfish-washpost-prod-washpost.s3.amazonaws.com/public/VLX3EBHTARB2FL44Q4BXOBFLEE.PNG

"Group of simulations from American (blue) and European (red) computer models from Sunday afternoon for Tropical Storm Dorian. Each color strand represents a different model simulation with slightly altered input data. Note that the strands are clustered together where the forecast track is most confident but diverge where the course of the storm is less certain. The bold red line is the average of all of the European model simulations, while the bold blue one is the average of all the American model simulations."

(StormVistaWxModels.com); 9/1/19, 6:43 PM
donald said...: I’m in Gulf Shores. Weather is majestic. I caught a 40 odd pound black drum today. I don’t give a crap about a damned hurricane.; 9/1/19, 7:42 PM
Mark said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 9/1/19, 8:12 PM
Mark said...: Is there not a single topic on which this guy is not a tedious bore and ass?

-- Legit Mark (since I see the other one is here too); 9/1/19, 8:14 PM
Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...: "The light green track where Mar-a-Lago gets hit twice would be fun,"

Now that Dorian's Red Hand has turned away...

"Wouldn’t it be a hoot if after all the talk about “karmatic justice for Trump” that thing smashed Massachusetts flat?"

"Backfire Hurricane" instead of Crossfire Hurricane; 9/1/19, 8:25 PM
John henry said...: That idea about nuking hurricanes is probably looking a lot better to a lot of people this week. Especially those in Florida.

I have no idea if it would work but there does seem to have been a lot of thought, by serious people with knowledge on the subject, over the years.

I suspect that the public hysteria over radiation would make it impractical politically.

But perhaps there is some sort of non-nuclear alternative.

I know what those folks in Bahamas are going through though I think they are probably suffering more than we have in our various hurricanes. I know what the folks in Florida are going through, looking down the barrel of the gun and thinking "Do I feel lucky today? Well, do I?" and trying to figure out what kind of decision I need to take and what to base it on.

We have people seriously advocating harebrained schemes for seeding the atmosphere to stop global whatsit. That would have some serious long term effects. If we make some big explosion in the midst of the next hurricane, it lasts about 10 minutes.

If it looks like it might work, especially if it can be done non-nuclearly, I would say try it and see what happens. Can't hurt, might help.

John Henry; 9/1/19, 9:11 PM
Mark said...: Legit Mark, I believe pride is considered a sin. And casting aspersions doesn't seem very Christian either. But hey, I'm not a religious guy, so if you're actually insulting me instead of some random other in this thread, I can tell you I'd spot you twenty IQ points and still beat you at the game of your choice, and that your appeal to moral authority is so lame it hurts to see.; 9/1/19, 9:13 PM
Narayanan said...: wow

https://twitter.com/GBlack22wx/status/1168273327531679744; 9/1/19, 10:40 PM
Narayanan said...: Inside The Eye; 9/1/19, 10:41 PM
Rabel said...: I'm watching the satellite tracking and this mofo needs to make a right turn real soon.; 9/1/19, 10:52 PM
Mark said...: "Mark" --

It wasn't me that called it, but AA herself about a week ago.

No pride involved.; 9/2/19, 12:48 AM
Fen said...: I live about 40 miles north of the green track on the west coast. Have all the standard provisions, but our home is in a low flood risk zone.

Well hell. Stay sharp and dry Farmer. We have many rounds to go ;); 9/2/19, 6:05 AM
Fen said...: Chuck: I would not expect a blog post like this from a law prof.

You! A Law Professor!

See. If you are going to come after Althouse, you're gonna have to lose the passive-aggressive sashay. Say what you mean. Don't fight like a girl.

Chuck: I suppose that I should not be surprised by the blog hostess's editorial choice.

Have you ever notice that you switch back and forth from attempting to manipulate Althouse into running the blog the way you want, to yelling Teacher! and hiding behind her skirts when someone throws your rocks back at you?

It's kinda dysfunctional. I would love to get inside her head to see what she really thinks of you and your games. Although she probably doesn't consider you much at all.

Chuckie: First, you are steering this page off course by attacking me with

Does someone have a wittle case of Hurricane Envy, Chuckie? Not to worry, soon it will be gone and we will go back to talking about you! Settle down now.; 9/2/19, 6:20 AM
Rusty said...: Jimbino @ 1:50
Is it a cone or a cylinder?; 9/2/19, 7:22 AM
stlcdr said...: Ironically, Chuckles, doesn’t see the humor in This Althouse post.; 9/2/19, 7:50 AM
Larry J said...: It seems reasonable to look at these forecast maps as a learning exercise. Hurricane forecasters run multiple computer models to try to determine a hurricane’s path and timelines. Each of those models are based on decades of vetted data from a variety of sources (satellites, radar, aircraft, ocean buoys, etc.). Those models are constantly evaluated against past and present truth data. They’re among the best computer models in existence, and they still can’t predict with certainty the path of a hurricane more than a few hours in the future.

Now, compare and contrast with climate change computer models. Their input data are usually from imprecise (sketchy) sources like tree rings and weather stations in urban heat islands. The input data are massaged to make “corrections” that are far from transparent. The computer models are seldom vetted against historical data, so their validity at predicting future climate conditions is about as valid as Magic 8 Ball. Despite all this, we’re told to accept as Gospel their predictions for climate conditions decades into the future. Climate change has happened throughout geologic time and is still happening today. The real questions are:
1) To what extent, if any, are human activities affecting the rate of climate change?
2) In which direction - warmer or cooler - is the climate changng? Hint: warmer is better.
3) What remedial actions can we take to adapt to the changes?; 9/2/19, 8:03 AM
Chuck said...: Hahahahaha!

"Do not rely on President Trump to make decisions."

President Trump suggests in a tweet that "In addition to Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia and Alabama will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated. Looking like one of the largest hurricanes ever. Already category 5. BE CAREFUL! GOD BLESS EVERYONE!"

But, um, Alabama is nowhere near the path of Dorian. And GOD BLESS THEM, the National Weather Service in Birmingham pointed out that fact in such a nicely forceful -- repeat; nicely forceful -- way.

This made my weekend.; 9/2/19, 11:19 AM
DanTheMan said...: >>This made my weekend.

Sad!; 9/2/19, 11:47 AM
tim in vermont said...: You know what made my weekend? The knowledge that Hillary is at home with a pallet of gin sulking and cursing the stupidity of Americans to reject her.; 9/2/19, 12:35 PM
MadisonMan said...: They’re among the best computer models in existence, and they still can’t predict with certainty the path of a hurricane more than a few hours in the future.

Well, that's just a nonsense bar to clear. Why do you need to know the path of an Cat 5 hurricane to within the closest kilometer in 12 hours?

Dorian has been a difficult storm to forecast in part because of its initial small size. There was also an initialization a while ago and all the initial points were wrong (eyeroll). Not sure how that happened.; 9/2/19, 7:31 PM
clar said...: I have read your article, the information you give is very interesting.
DalagangFilipina.info; 9/3/19, 6:27 AM