"If I have 2086 blog posts in 2025 at the end of today, how many blog posts must I publish per day in the remaining days of this year to have a total of 3000 for the year?"

I asked ChatGPT. Answer: "You must publish about 9 blog posts per day for the rest of 2025 to reach 3000."

"And how many per day have I averaged so far?" Answer: "You’ve averaged about 7.9 posts per day so far in 2025."

Me: "I've had over 3,000 for many years, and I'm not blogging less, just writing longer posts. It would be easy to throw in 2 very short things a day or break a long thing up into 2 things if I got goal oriented, but I have been doing things naturally. Look how consistent my weekly output is" — I reprint the 2025 numbers that you can see in the sidebar.

ChatGPT offers to show me "what the year-end total would look like under a 'natural' pace vs. a 'goal-oriented' pace (say, 2 extra/day)?" I agree, read the answer, then say, "The natural pace is so bizarrely consistent that I think I should respect it as a secret and personal power that transcends the obvious value of the very round number, 3000. What is base 10 to me?"

"I've been a little bit divisive in the sense that I've been hitting people pretty hard — a little bit, yeah."

Said Donald Trump, on December 17, 2015 — with Jimmy Kimmel, in happier times:

And here's Bill Maher, last night, commenting on the hard hit against Jimmy Kimmel:

"Feras’s home, which he shares with his wife and nine children, comprises four connected 2,400-year-old caves and an adjoining tent."

"Just a 10-minute walk away are the remains of Petra’s grand temple and its colonnaded main street.... The caves occupied by the Bdoul were originally an integral part of a wealthy trading city – the thriving capital of the Nabateans for 500 years before it was annexed by the Romans in around AD100 and eventually abandoned three centuries later.... Officials charged with the management and development of Petra say the Bdoul who still live on the site are there illegally. They contend... that their use of the caves as homes, animal shelters, shops and storerooms risks causing irreparable harm. 'If we want to preserve the integrity of the site for future generations then we have to stop the use of the caves for damaging activities,' said Dr Fares Braizat, the chief commissioner of the Petra Development and Tourism Region Authority. '... it is illegal for anyone to live in or use the archaeological monuments within the [site of Petra] for whatever purposes.'..."

From "'I can’t survive in a house': Petra’s Bedouin resist moves to evict them from ancient cave homes/Plans to improve the world heritage site for tourists put its living culture at risk, say locals and campaigners" (The Guardian).

There's a great "Fall of Civilizations" episode about Petra, here:

"Drug-sniffing dogs swarmed St. Vladimir’s Orthodox Theological Seminary last week when cops were called for possible illegal narcotics on the scenic, tree-covered campus...."

"Instead, what they found were first-degree relics — the body or body fragments, such as bone or flesh — of Saint Raphael of Brooklyn, a Syrian immigrant who founded St. Nicholas Cathedral in what is now downtown Brooklyn and was glorified in 2000.... 'The people that found them didn’t know what they were,' said Father Michael Nasser of the seminary. 'They weren’t in a typical container.... We got to meet the K-9 units who came out here for a special prayer and blessing and allowed us to thank them for all they do....'"

The New York Post reports.

"I am ill, seriously ill — it is the end, but I am not afraid. You will continue the work, you know how, but you must be careful. You know how to behave; I don’t need to tell you anything more."

Wrote Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk, the first president of Czechoslovakia, who died in 1937 and left a letter that was not to be opened until September 19, 2025, which was yesterday.

Quoted in "Masaryk’s 'last words' envelope opened: insights into a nation’s founding president" (Radio Prague International).

We talked about the great letter-opening yesterday, here. I had a bit of the text in that post, though I wasn't sure it was from the letter: "If people are uneducated and foolish, there is not much that can be done. People are glad to be foolish — do not make it easy for them, and argue with them." I see that is indeed from the letter.

The letter also says this about the Germans: "Give them what they deserve, but no more."

"The FBI under former President Biden launched a sweeping investigation called 'Arctic Frost' that included major Republican organizations and conservative groups..."

"... according to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA). Grassley revealed whistleblower evidence at a Senate Judiciary hearing showing the probe, which began with 2020 election challenges, later expanded to 92 Republican targets such as the RNC, the Republican Attorneys General Association, and Turning Point USA. 'Arctic Frost wasn't just a case to politically investigate Trump,' Grassley said. 'It was the vehicle by which partisan FBI agents and Department of Justice prosecutors could achieve their partisan ends and improperly investigate the entire Republican political apparatus."

From "FBI's 'Arctic Frost' probe into Jan. 6 investigated Charlie Kirk's Turning Point USA" (Yahoo, republishing Snopes, quoting the Facebook page The Federalist Papers).

"When I heard the tragic news, I said, ‘I wonder who he was.’ And then all of a sudden, this overwhelming... sense of sorrow and kind of renewal."

"And I thought, I gotta learn about this guy. And the more I learned about him, I thought, this guy's a modern day Saint Paul. He was a missionary, he's an evangelist, he's a hero. He's one, I think, that knew what Jesus meant when he said: The truth will set you free.... Now, I understand he was pretty blunt and he was pretty direct. He didn't try to avoid any controversy. He didn't even try to avoid confrontation. The difference is the way, the mode, the style that he did it, always with respect. And not only was that a gracious... virtuous thing to do, it's effective, 'cuz when your opponents see this guy respects me, we kinda disagree here, but he kinda enjoys me, and he's thanking me for being here, and he's telling me he appreciates the trust I have in him in sharing my views. I thought: This guy can teach us something."

Said Cardinal Dolan:

Cardinal Dolan says he spent the past week studying Charlie Kirk’s life, and the more he learned, the more he saw him as a modern-day Saint Paul.

A fearless missionary, a passionate evangelist, and a true hero.

“When I heard the tragic news, I said, ‘I wonder who he was.’ And… pic.twitter.com/p77aAPOQGB

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) September 19, 2025

I want to relate this to a post I wrote the day after the assassination that some readers objected to but that I defended as "as a serious invitation to contemplate Kirk as a saint."

I knew at the time this question was complicated for Catholics because of their official procedure for canonization, and I observe that Cardinal Dolan — an excellent speaker — avoids directly declaring Charlie Kirk a "saint." He doesn't say "Saint Charlie," but he does declare Kirk "a modern day Saint Paul" — and "a missionary," "an evangelist," and "a hero." I'm not Catholic, and I don't know where the official line is, but the Cardinal seems to be stepping forthrightly up to the line. I think Cardinal Dolan knows exactly what he's saying and deploys clear language perfectly. 

"When Secret Service agents approached him, he claimed to be a member of law enforcement and said he was armed, the service said."

"'The individual is not a member of authorized law enforcement working the event and is currently in custody,' the service said, adding that he had not been arrested as of late Friday night.... The apparent unauthorized entry raised security concerns around the memorial, which is at capacity and is expected to include President Donald Trump, Vice President JD Vance and many other administration officials and top aides."

I'm reading "Armed man detained at site of planned memorial service for Charlie Kirk/The service, which will feature President Donald Trump and Cabinet members, has a top-level security designation akin to a Super Bowl" (WaPo).

How is it possible to have enough security when malefactors are capable of attempting to infiltrate security — either by faking being a member of law enforcement or by managing to become a member?

There are prominent historical examples of political figures killed by their own security guards. I think of Indira Gandhi, but you can go back to Philip II of Macedon:

"As for California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Harris wrote that he told her he was hiking and would 'call back' but 'never did.'..."

"Newsom addressed the excerpt during a news conference Friday in California, downplaying any tension with Harris and ribbing a reporter for asking about it. 'Trivial doesn’t even begin to describe how inconsequential my comments are about to be,' Newsom said, going on to confirm he was hiking and saying he missed a call from an unknown number. 'At that exact same moment, [I] was working with my team to put out a statement to endorse her. I assume that’s in the book as well.'"

From "Harris book ignites tensions with potential 2028 presidential rivals/In her upcoming memoir, Harris recounts her presidential campaign, offering blunt observations of top Democrats she could face as future opponents" (WaPo).

What a great line: Trivial doesn’t even begin to describe how inconsequential my comments are about to be.

ADDED: Also in that article: "Harris portrayed [Josh] Shapiro as overly ambitious and confident, a characterization that a Shapiro spokesman, Manuel Bonder, called 'simply ridiculous.'" What's wrong with being ambitious and confident... other than the worry that he'd outshine her? Anyone capable of serving as President is going to be "ambitious and confident." I assume Bonder mean it's ridiculous to think those qualities are bad and not it's ridiculous to think Shapiro has them. 

Sunrise — 6:46.

Write about whatever you want in the comments.

And please do your Amazon shopping going in through the Althouse portal — here. Thanks!

"Ted Pellegatta... did odd jobs his whole life and lived in a studio apartment attached to a vacant barn."

"He often stood outside a local restaurant hawking copies of his self-published books of poetry and photos to supplement his $1,000-per-month Social Security check..... But Pellegatta died a happy man when he succumbed to metastatic cancer last month at the age of 85.... He was a MAGA guy who was beloved by liberals. He was an old Marine, waiter and farmhand who made friends with all classes, ages and colors.... His signature achievement was the coffee klatch he convened at the local coffee shop, Before & After, just about every morning for the past 10 years, and in other locations before that. Day after day, he’d sit in the front of the shop, wearing his cowboy hat... over his wild silver hair, and serve as the unofficial chairman.... Anybody who walked in was welcome in the discussion. The ground rules were simple: Show interest in one another... and refuse to fight.... If an argument got too hot, he’d shut it down with a 'meow.' If somebody was pontificating, he’d drop his head and snore. If the conversation annoyed him, he’d get up and leave — then start again the next day...."

From "A dying man said he found the key to happiness. Science backs him up. Ted Pellegatta was a MAGA supporter beloved by liberals in Sperryville, Virginia, whose friends transcended political allegiances" (WaPo)(gift link).

The article — by Dana Milbank — mentions Charlie Kirk, but only like this: "Last week’s gruesome slaying of conservative leader Charlie Kirk was followed predictably by finger-pointing and cries for vengeance in many corners of the United States. But not at Before & After...." I wanted it to mention Charlie Kirk as a model for communication between people who disagree. Anybody who walked in was welcome in the discussion. 

I'm happy to see America's lefties swooning in love with freedom of speech.

Let them make many strong and loud professions of love, because I want a lot of material to throw in their face when — if? — they get back to subordinating freedom of speech below endless other more important matters.

Is it possible they'll commit to this love for freedom of speech with such intensity that they will forsake its rivals? It's unlikely, but I'll be delighted to give them credit... or even a vote. 

Now, lets check in with Roseanne Barr again:

Remember when you and your wife called Bob Iger to have me fired? https://t.co/w5BcJ1bsLC

— Roseanne Barr (@therealroseanne) September 18, 2025

"On this date, a thin waning crescent Moon (about 6% illuminated) formed a striking conjunction with Venus and the bright star Regulus in the constellation Leo..."

"... visible in the eastern sky about 40-60 minutes before sunrise for most observers in the Northern Hemisphere. Venus shines at a magnitude of -3.9, making it appear as a dazzling white point of light—far brighter than any star and easily mistaken for a 'dot' close to the Moon's position. This alignment was a highlight of the month's pre-dawn sky, with the trio creating a beautiful triangle-like grouping low on the horizon. If you're in the Southern Hemisphere or a more northerly latitude, the view might have been slightly different, but Venus was the standout object globally."

That's Grok, responding to my question: "What was that white dot next to the moon this morning?

Here's my photo, from 6:12 a.m.:

I fake-raged at Grok: "What do you mean easily mistaken for a 'dot'?! It is a dot. To call it a dot is only to describe how it looks, not to claim it has any particular substance inconsistent with a planet. I assumed it was Venus, but I don't like to say what I don't know, so I said what I did know. It IS a dot! I don't like being told I've made a mistake when I'm actually taking pains to be super-accurate."

Grok abjectly apologized and claimed not to have meant to say I'd made a mistake. Own it, Grok.

ADDED: Grok seemed to want to prove itself by helping me, so I asked what was my genuine next question, a veer away from astronomy and into the topic of writing:

"Czechs agog as national archive prepares to open mysterious envelope sealed for 20 years."

CNN reports.

Today is the day!

What were the last words of the country’s revered first president, Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk?...

The final thoughts of the statesman, who governed the Czechoslovak Republic from 1918 to 1935, are believed to have been recorded by his son Jan Masaryk just before his death in September 1937 and have been sealed in a letter ever since, according to Czech public radio, which has set up a special section of its website to cover the opening of the envelope on Friday. 

The New York Times embeds Erika Kirk in the tradition of Right Wing Women.

I'm reading "Erika Kirk Takes a Leadership Role in Turning Point USA/After years spent emphasizing family life in the public eye, she will now run the group her husband built."

She is one of a raft of conservative female leaders right now who are building prominent careers and public-facing lives while emphasizing a particular message: telling young women to focus on getting married and starting a family, rather than having a public-facing life....

Oh, the contradiction! You advocated prioritizing home life, so what are you doing here? It feels so rude to confront the new widow like that. But perhaps the NYT feels it doesn't really count because it's talking about a whole "raft" of women.

Camilla and Melania look at tiny books.

Well, the women had to do something. Something that will read as something on camera. Something metaphorical. There's the grand literary tradition of England, as represented by the bust of Shakespeare overseeing the ladies' encounter with literature of the miniature kind. The feminine kind. Look how dutifully the 2 women enact intimacy through the fingering of tiny books. Such meaningful nonsense!

I would love to have a transcript of Melania's internal monologue. Outwardly, she says things like, "Oh, beautiful. Very nice." What choice does she have?

May I have more information about her outfit? What was the thinking? Encase her in leather! Yes, she will embody the experience of a book — bound in leather. But she's so insanely large next to the teeny-tiny books. Any human would look ungainly next to these dainty objects.

Soon they address the gigantic book that had been looming in the background, exaggerating the tininess of the tiny books. Don't dare touch it! They'd been woman-handling the tiny books — without gloves — but they are warned off touching the humongous bird book. It's a first edition of John J. Audubon's "Birds of America." The ladies stand back in awe.