Althouse: Sunrise.

October 17, 2026

Sunrise.

14 comments:

bagoh20 said...: How will we know anything is true when it's impossible to tell. We are already there, and we are not ready for it. Civilization has never faced such a thing. There is no playbook and no vaccine.

"Federal judges meeting in Boston heard tech industry warnings that AI-generated images and video are becoming nearly impossible to verify, as a judiciary committee considers whether courts need new rules for evidence that may be deepfakes instead of the real thing."

https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2026/10/17/openai-ai-generated-deepfakes-will-become-impossible-to-verify/; 10/17/26, 6:18 PM
bagoh20 said...: I wonder if people will do what they seem to be already doing a lot, which is not care if it's true or not. Ever see when one of those on-the-street interviewers debunks a person's committed view and the person just says "This conversation is over" and walks away?; 10/17/26, 6:22 PM
rehajm said...: speaking of impossible to tell, are you following the Omar ‘family’ saga? Not if you’re following traditional media. They’re all running interference for her, questioning the legality of judges enabling warrants, claiming everything surrounding the investigation is unlawful. Spaghetti defense…; 10/17/26, 6:35 PM
Aggie said...: @bagoh20 maybe the change will be quite simple, in the end. Personal accountability will reassert itself, because any kind of recorded audio or video will be discarded as suspect, and only eyewitness testimony or certified data will be accepted. Things that depend on belief absorbed by visual or audio means will be viewed as under suspicion without some kind of due accreditation.; 10/17/26, 6:51 PM
Aggie said...: I'm reading that the Omar case is a deep dive, being prepared as an object lesson to the thousands that game the immigration system for citizenship. They're digging out DNA evidence, and the rumor is that the family isn't even a family. We'll see. I can think of few subjects more worthy of deportation, out of pure anti-American spite in her spoken record. But we'll see what takes its course.; 10/17/26, 6:54 PM
Mason G said...: "speaking of impossible to tell, are you following the Omar ‘family’ saga?"

Might be a good time to buy some Orville Redenbacher stock...; 10/17/26, 6:55 PM
john mosby said...: If video and audio recordings become untrustworthy, then maybe some of the 24/7/everywhere surveillance will become uneconomical. Why invest in cameras for your store if, in the unlikely event your local authorities find, arrest, and prosecute the guy in the video, the jury buys his deepfake defense?

On the other hand, I have said for years that all evidence is testimonial. That is, even/especially the most scientifically forensic evidence requires that the scientist can get on the stand, explain her methods to laypeople, and convince them that she didn't tamper with anything. So even physical evidence depends on people's believability.

Not sure that much would change for surveillance footage.

Also, the strongest cases feature forensic science as just one strand of the web, which can survive on the strength of the other strands. For instance, if you got facial recognition from the store video, which enabled you to get an address for the mope, and you then did an old-fashioned physical surveillance of that address, to find lots of brand-new merch moving in and out of the house on a daily basis.

Old time coppers talked about 'cutting out the snitch:' once an informant fingers a suspect, you develop independent corroborating evidence, so you never have to even mention the snitch, let alone put him on the stand.

We may have to go with 'cutting out the video,' while still relying on it for leads. CC, JSM; 10/17/26, 6:56 PM
Mason G said...: "But we'll see what takes its course."

If she's done nothing wrong, she's got nothing to be afraid of.

I'm told.; 10/17/26, 6:57 PM
Original Mike said...: Glorious fall day in the north woods.
Spent the afternoon dismantling a beaver dam. It's preventing the winter draw-down of the lake.; 10/17/26, 6:57 PM
Gerda Sprinchorn said...: Original Mike said:

"Spent the afternoon dismantling a beaver dam."

Was dynamite involved?; 10/17/26, 7:51 PM
Original Mike said...: "Was dynamite involved?"

Unfortunately, no.
It would have helped.; 10/17/26, 8:13 PM
Mason G said...: Spencer Pratt has thoughts.; 10/17/26, 8:29 PM
Grant said...: I once considered buying a property that included a beaver dam. Unfortunately circumstances argued against it, not least because, if the dam failed, my prospective neighbors would have been flooded.; 10/17/26, 8:53 PM
Josephbleau said...: “ Things that depend on belief absorbed by visual or audio means will be viewed as under suspicion without some kind of due accreditation.”

There will be an answer, pictures, videos, audio will be bit by bit uploaded to a service that will testify that each bit received is a true recorded datum. And the sender will be geolocated by satellite, and the transfer times will be logged by atomic clocks so that it will be impossible for data processing to occur on the bit. I should patent it, and the “pure pixel” trademark.

So to fake something you would have to be in the right place within a few meters, and have instantaneous processing power, and know the context of future events so that your fake would make sense. Elon could do this certification in real time via satellites in Leo.

Fakes happen now in retrospect, you take two pictures in different places and times and blend them. And you have context checking. My proposal would break the chain.; 10/17/26, 9:26 PM

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October 17, 2026

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