I'm reading "For U.S. and China, a Risky Game of Chicken With No Off-Ramp in Sight/Neither side wants to look weak by backing down on tariffs. But if their trade relationship collapses, the global consequences could be profound" (NYT).
The off-ramp is free trade!
Until then, it's a test of who "can withstand more pain." I can see thinking Americans will give up first, but the pain is worse for China. They have all this junk they made for us — furniture, clothing, toys and home appliances — and we'd just be saving money and going without a lot of extra items we might be better off without — all that "fast fashion," all the plastic toys, all the home redecorating madness. We may even learn that life is better without so many cheap consumer goods. Less waste. Less damage to our soul from the slave labor.
They need to break before we learn to live without them. But if they don't, we pocket in the money from the tariffs.
Why aren't progressives on Trump's side here? The issues of consumerism, labor conditions, slavery, and environmentalism are all on Trump's side, and we've got progressives crying over the drop in stock prices.
Here's something Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday: "I’m not happy with what’s going on in the market today, but the distribution of equities across households? The top 10% of Americans own 88% of equities. Eighty-eight percent of the stock market. The next 40% owns 12%. The bottom 50% has debt. They have credit card bills. They rent their homes. They have auto loans. And we’ve got to give them some relief."
And check out Glenn Greenwald, "The Left's 180 on Tariffs?" (YouTube).
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176 comments:
"Beijing’s strategy now is... hope that Mr. Trump succumbs to domestic pressure to reverse course..."
So, exactly like the Democrats, then?
The off-ramp is free trade!
No it isn't. Trump is basing his tariffs on balance of trade (not "reciprocal" tariffs). So Trump will not be satisfied until we sell as many goods (services don't count) to China, Europe or Heard and McDonald Islands as we buy from them. That is going to be a hell of lot of Alaskan herring sold to the antarctic.
"The off-ramp is free trade!"
serious Question:
HOW do you have "free trade", when you are using slave labor?
If my side has to pay people enough that they're WILLING to work ..
HOW do i compete with a side that uses Slave Labor?
Unlike real communism, real, true price discovery and free trade has been tried before and it worked great for everyone except the parasitic speculator class.
because Trump is LITERALLY hitler!
Maybe a better label for the Trump Tariff goal is Equitable Trade: No tariffs from either side and no deficits or surpluses on either side
I think we can all agree that the Chinese people can take much more pain than the United States. We complain about hang nails why while they are losing an arm and a leg. The only way we win this battle is to make their pain so unbearable that a jeopardizes PRC/Xi existence.
The 88% that the top 10% owns is seed corn. The rich forego consumption in favor of buying heavy equipment for ditch diggers, because the rich already spend all the want on consumption and extra therefore goes to investment.
The left always wants to distribute the seed corn for consumption by its voters.
There is nothing sourced from China that we cannot obtain from a better trading partner, although the transition costs and pain in the meantime will create pressure. OTOH there is no consumer market like America to which China can switch to offload all the crap they make. Economically, to put it plainly, China is cash poor and needs current receipts desperately to prop up ongoing initiatives.
I'm disappointed that Chinese nationals are still going to college here. Kick every spying ChiCom out of the country along with all the ones with work visas. They can't steal our IP (so easily) if they aren't here to get their little prying hands on it.
“The off-ramp is free trade!”
I think there are two conflicting attitudes behind that slogan. One is the view—call it Muskism—that the US could compete right now in a zero-tariff world. The alternative—call it Navarroism—is that we will need a long period of sustained protectionism to rebuild our manufacturing capacity. Only then, years from now, will the US be able to enter the promised land of free trade. Anyone invoking free trade as the off-ramp ought to explain whether they think it’s currently open for the US after a few lightning rounds of negotiation or only a possible exit many miles down the road.
The collective MSNBC left are hoping for WWIII and total collapse... For leftist power and money whoring.
Watching Trump co-opt "progressive" values (as distinct from the Democrat agenda) within a free but fair trade framework is remarkable to behold.
The world has to pay to play in the economic theme park of the USA. At the same time we'll be rebuilding little Main Streets all over America - like Palatka, Florida a place that good economics has by passed for cutesy St Augustine just down the road. Bring it Daddy Trump! Time's a wastin'!
What is the pro-labor argument against Trump's tariffs?
I was imagining this morning what a relief this will be to our overflowing landfills.
This "leftist" economist is for fighting it out with China. Fighting with the rest of the world, no.
The problem with trump's policies, as usual, is that nothing is really thought out and it's mostly about ratings. So far, trade war with the world has low ratings.
Pro-labor as workers in general or as union workers. Their interests conflict. The one unemploys the other.
”The Left's 180 on Tariffs?"
The left wants to talk about tariffs, as a sop to union workers, but they never wanted to implement tariffs, because they receive too much graft from the CCP.
@Big Mike, more like they receive too much in contributions from Wall Street.
You can't do free trade in the first place, but it would be nice to have a market for American goods.
You can't do free trade because of comparative advantage. Work goes not to the people who necessarily do it best but to people who free up other people who can do something even better from doing what they do.
The economics department secretary walks papers to the dean's office even though the department head walks faster than she does.
The problem arises when our guys won't do something more beneficial but just collect welfare.
The Dems imported illegal criminal gangs and an illegal immigrants slave class... (along with sexually abused children) to harness as voters.
In Ghostbusters, at least Dan Akroyd was able to choose his own destructor, the Stay-Puff Marshmallow Man. For the middle class, the rich picked the destructor, China, which has decimated middle America for the last 30 years. Trump has strapped on the Proton Pack and is aiming right at the Stay-Puff Marshmallow Man. It's why the forgotten middle Americans love the guy.
Ann Althouse wrote: "Why aren't progressives on Trump's side here? The issues of consumerism, labor conditions, slavery, and environmentalism are all on Trump's side, and we've got progressives crying over the drop in stock prices."
In all seriousness, one of the most disappointing realizations of my adult life has been learning how many people I've had great respect for as honest, rational thinkers are driven primarily by who is doing something, rather than what actually is being done.
Tariffs have been popular with progressives. Bernie Sanders is as fond of them as Peter Navarro, who, like Sanders, is a socialist.
The collective MSNBC left are hoping for WWIII and total collapse... For leftist power and money whoring.
Clearly they are trying to foment economic panic in the name of something…anything to justify removing Trump for office or at least from his popularity…
China's annual exports total about $3.5 trillion. About $500 billion of that (15 percent) is with the United States.
China has a LOT of other places to export its good to.
The trade was never free with China. They required local partnerships for many foreign businesses, they didn't respect intellectual property, their currency wasn't free float. They ran a mercantilist economy and offered cheap labor. The western capital controllers and senior executives shipped capital and assets to China and took lavish bonuses in return. The western workers got screwed. But I don't think Trump will be able to fix that now.
Communist China will have no qualms about starving its entire population if necessary. But if the clothing, electronics and other goods U.S. consumers want skyrocket in price, then the U.S. economy will tank. Then we will start to starve too.
As long as the price of the Kung-Pao Chicken at Main Moon in Sussex, WI remains stable, I'm good.
I agree that it's hard to have Free Trade when any country is essentially using Slave Labor. This is one reason I try not to buy any clothes made in China -- they're very cheap, yes, at CostCo, but I think this is a moral choice on my part. I don't buy many clothes any more anyway.
rhhardin @ 8:53 AM shows he hasn't learned anything in the last two centuries.
"Why aren't progressives on Trump's side here?"
Really? For the same reason they're now firebombing the EVs they used to worship.
I miss about 50% of the off ramps I need to take. I always start thinking about something else right when I get to it, and then drive right by. I wonder if that happens to diplomats. I've heard the Chinese are bad drivers.
Mark said, "China has a LOT of other places to export its good to."
Sure, but at what price point? Much of China's currency manipulation is in USD arbitrage because that's what a large proportion of global trade is priced in. China's products sell because they're cheap, and that is going to be increasingly difficult to do if they can't maintain their exchange rate with USD, which they won't be able to if this trade spat continues.
Btw, I love that you denominated "$3.5 trillion" of Chinese exports in USD. Cute.
We may even learn that life is better without so many cheap consumer goods.
This is the key issue. People have been conned into thinking that they must have the newest gadgets, the most items. Conned into the mode that we can't live without having more more more stuff.
Having parents that grew up in the Great Depression and myself living through the 1970's recession as a broke college student....I learned a lot of coping strategies.
Will these tariffs hurt for a bit? Yes. It is necessary. Will this be a wake up for many?...hopefully! Get over it. Learn to cope.
However... in the long run....the tariffs will be a great thing for the economy. Increasing industry in the US. Employing more people. Possibly lowering taxes overall. Decreasing the deficit. Increasing the Velocity of Money look it up people! Very important.
Trump has promoted these policies his whole adult life. The Democrats now opposing them did too, all of them, and there is video of them saying so in very strong terms, but Democrats never do what they say. I know it sounds partisan, but Democrats are just dishonest and fake about everything they do. That's why they are looking for a message rather than a solution. It's why they hate a former friend, and why they fight transparency and reform.
The tariffs seem like a really great idea. Those Chinese children get to stop slaving away making iPhones and go back to slaving away in rice paddies, and we get to stop having those awful iPhones. Win-win!
Tariffs are taxes, which will raise money for the government and pay for more government programs. Only Nixon can go to China. And only Trump can raise taxes.
This hidden tax increase will help close our massive deficit. Especially if Trump can get rid of all this government fraud and abuse.
Honest Democrats should be completely on board with what Trump is doing. But they're so filled with hate, most of them are incapable of independent thought.
And while I hate taxes, what's nice about tariffs is that you can avoid the taxes by buying American. What's also nice about tariffs is that you can bring in money from dishonest people who cheat on their taxes, and illegal immigrants who don't file. It's a tax on expenditures as opposed to incomes.
If you want less of something, tax it.
When you tax labor, you get less people working. When you tax expenditures, you get less people buying stuff.
Which economy would you rather have? A low-work economy, where people rely on debt to buy things? Or a high-work economy, where people buy less?
Trump is claiming more and more of liberal economics as his platform. He's seized the right, the middle, and the working class. While the Democrat party is squirming into assassination wet dreams, racist theories, fascist delusions, not to mention biological fantasies. Trump might end his second term with 80% approval ratings, the way he's going.
"The off-ramp is free trade!
Until then, it's a test of who "can withstand more pain."
Right! that's the big fiction that has been perpetrated by the free traders defending this indefensible economic system. They don't want tariffs because they want free trade. But only by China and other countries doing away with trade restrictions will we actually get free (or freer) trade. And if China already has tariffs and trade restrictions in place then they can't say the defend free trade or are opposed to tariffs. because the very system they support allows for all countries but the US to have trade restrictions.
Just because they've buried their heads up their own *sses to not see the obvious doesn't mean that WE can't see the obvious.
What Trump is doing is necessary and he needs to stick it out so that this country can get its manufacturing back.
As for China's future they have painted themselves into a corner. If they can't sell in our market they have to go to other markets and sell. but they have been protectionist against those other countries as well. And those other countries restrict their markets. So it wont be as easy for China to sell them Goods without both sides opening up their markets.
And if they do, then why not open their markets to to the US and they can then trade again with few tariffs in place in the biggest marketplace in the world
The problem with trump's policies, as usual, is that nothing is really thought out and it's mostly about ratings.
You can't think it through, but Trump and his team obviously have. It ALL works together: having loyal Americans instead of Deep Staters running intelligence and DOJ, defunding the Global Left by dismantling USAID, and now creating our own Great Reset for the world economy. Tariffs are a tool, not a goal. The tool is being used to open up negotiations with all our trading partners while also taking power away from the financiers via every stock exchange. Ours is recovering but foreign stock markets are reeling. Now the bond market is strengthening, creating the opportunity to refinance our debt at lower interest.
If you can't see how these moves are related, in fact tightly interrelated, that's your deficiency, not Trump's.
"Howard said...
I think we can all agree that the Chinese people can take much more pain than the United States. We complain about hang nails while they are losing an arm and a leg. The only way we win this battle is to make their pain so unbearable that a jeopardizes PRC/Xi existence."
It won't take long for that to happen. China is not North Korea. Their standard of living is not third world. Without the US buying its goods, the industries mentioned (and others) are basically shuttered, and the pain will come quick. To the population. And government.
Bad news for Harbor Freight.
Progressives are hating on Trump because they are always hating on Trump. "Hands off" may seem like a lame slogan, but it ties together fears about Social Security, Medicare, and 401Ks with the anger of government and NGO employees.
The labor argument against the tariffs would be that some American plants assemble products from foreign-made parts. Also, there are fears of recession. Whether labor actually is making those argument, I don't know.
You could parallel today with the Nineties. Some Democrats then had fears about deindustrialization. Republicans generally didn't. The economy was growing, and companies were profitable, and Republicans agreed that unionized US industries really couldn't compete well, but plenty of Reagan voters defected to Perot. Today, the Democrats are largely a post-industrial party. They have union supporters, but they're outweighed by those who don't work in industry or the trades, so there aren't going to be many defectors.
Just what the end game is we really don't know. The administration may not even be agreed about and settled on what the long-term strategy is.
This hidden tax increase will help close our massive deficit.
Only if we continue to buy imports. Trump wants his tariffs to do two contradictory things: rebuild American manufacturing and raise massive amounts of revenue for the U.S. government (that those taxes are regressive is a whole other issue). You simply can't do both.
I've lost a fortune in the market recently. Not concerned. It always returns: Every. Single. Time.
I'm also extremely cheap and love Chinese prices on everything from trinkets to toys to million dollar machine tools. Frankly I'm looking forward to being forced to buy American. I want to, but I don't have the commitment I should. I also look forward to not buying crap I don't need just because it's cheap.
Although it will cost me a lot to buy American, I also look forward to better quality, and getting back the customers we lost to cheap Chinese copies of the products we invented and created a market for. That would include every single product we ever created. Every one has been copied in China.
Howard said...
"I think we can all agree that the Chinese people can take much more pain than the United States. "
The Chinese economy is melting down and people are rioting in the streets. The Chinese middle class are buying houses in California.
Free trade may be an elegant concept, but it shouldn't be viewed as a goal unto itself. The goal is American prosperity, distributed roughly in proportion to people's individual contributions in creating it.
"As for China's future they have painted themselves into a corner. If they can't sell in our market they have to go to other markets and sell. but they have been protectionist against those other countries as well."
As the article posted said, there is no market to go to. As Althouse commented, much of what China provides we can do without, or can get somewhere else. Many companies that also provide these products will be more than happy to increase production.
We are China's single biggest trading partner. If you think the EU and ASEAN nations will take up the slack caused by our pullback you are dreaming. Keep in mind China also has a simmering social unrest with many factions (religious, lack of marriageable women, anger at graft, speech codes, housing costs) and they have had a bloody revolution in recent history. Xi is skating on thin ice and initiating war over Taiwan is not a popular idea just like losing a trade war to us is toxic to leadership there.
The US Economy is based on 1) slave wages in foreign countries to import cheap goods and pad corporate profits, and 2) underpaid and overworked illegal immigrant domestic labor in farming, manufacturing, and construction.
It's really just a small step above the labor and economic model of the pre-Civil War Antebellum South.
Remember when Democrats wanted the rich to pay their fair share: This is it.
This is the taxing of corporations for offshoring American jobs. It's a punishment. People who want to unemploy Americans should pay a hefty fee to do so. This is Trump extracting that tax from wealthy stockholders ... and 50% of all stocks are held by the 1%.
This is Democrats getting what they always wanted from Democrat leaders. But they don't like it now because Trump is getting the credit for doing what their leaders claimed to want, but never did.
"If there is a market, that market will be met."
There are more places around the world that can manufacture cheap goods to export to us besides China.
Manufacturing is leaving China.
However... in the long run....the tariffs will be a great thing for the economy.
Listen to DBQ. She is a CFP who doesn't know understand how a progressive income tax works.
Bad news for Harbor Freight.
And Home Depot, Tractor Supply, Ace Hardware, Lowes, Amazon and Walmart. I guarantee they are ALL right now working their contacts in China to get concessions on price. That gets pushed farter out of reach when China ratchets tariffs upward.
We may even learn that life is better without so many cheap consumer goods.
Got to say; the older I get the more I like the idea of the old ways when things were repairable, not just disposable. When our "smart" washer started looking like it was going and it became obvious that we needed a new one Mrs. NorthOfTheOneOhOne and I opted for one of the commercial model Speed Queens. It's only got a quarter of the features that our old one had and is built like something from 1975, but it comes with a 3 year warranty and is more mechanical than electronic. Honestly I really didn't mind that it cost twice what a new "smart" machine would have, especially since it's going to be our last washer.
Oh yeah, and it washes clothes in about half the time our "smart" machine did and unlike with the old machine the clothes actually come out clean. So we got that going for us!
Freder, who is always wrong, wrote: "Trump wants his tariffs to do two contradictory things: rebuild American manufacturing and raise massive amounts of revenue for the U.S. government (that those taxes are regressive is a whole other issue). You simply can't do both."
If you rebuild American manufacturing ... you AUTOMATICALLY create tax revenue for the US government in the form of income and capital gains taxes. That is what tariffs do ... it ensures that companies pay a tax to sell into our market and offshore 100% of those profits.
This is the Democrat DREAM writ large. But since Orange Man Bad, Democrats MUST be against it.
"You simply can't do both."
Yes you can. Neither result takes 100% of the option. You get some of both, but now both are good for us. Just like you can buy steak or hamburger. One is better, and one is cheaper, but not everybody makes the same choice, and both get bought, plus, now you have a choice.
"Why aren't progressives on Trump's side here? The issues of consumerism, labor conditions, slavery, and environmentalism are all on Trump's side, and we've got progressives crying over the drop in stock prices."
TDS, first and foremost. But, then again, Commies have always had their "useful idiot" allies within the United States.
Do you understand Freder. The tax package just passed by the Senate makes Trump's across-the-board cuts permanent, and removes 100% of tax on tips, 100% tax on Social Security, and 20% tax on pass-through entities like S Corps and LLCs. Exempts. This "no tax on labor" move has the revolutionary momentum of making no tax on income seem like a realistic possibility.
But the next show to fall is likely the "progressive" nature of taxes, which should be fairly assessed across all income groups.
I worry that China will respond by tightening its grip on Taiwan, and use control of Taiwan's essential semiconductor industry as the ultimate, uh, chip in this trade war. That's how trade war can become hot war.
"Shoe to fall" not show. Ugh.
Just like you can buy steak or hamburger.
Not if the hamburger has a 100% tariff on it and the steak doesn't. Then hamburger will cost as much as ribeye steak. You might as well buy the steak and make your own hamburger. And of course, all beef products are heavily subsidized in this country, from production through processing.
"What is the pro-labor argument against Trump's tariffs?"
Working families will be paying for the sharp, permanent inflation just like everyone else. Bessent's statement is meaningless; making everything more expensive doesn't offer any relief to lower-income Americans. Even if the tariffs are sufficiently high and permanent that someone decides to open a factory in the US that pays American-level wages to manufacturing workers, the fact that they have to pay those high wages will make the finished goods so expensive that they'll be unsellable overseas. All this accomplishes in the best-case scenario is that American consumers will have a choice between expensive American goods or expensive foreign goods. No matter how many American manufacturing jobs you succeed in creating, the workers holding those jobs will be paying for the inflation built in by the tariffs just like everyone else. And we all know that inflation hits lower-income people the hardest.
Trump wants his tariffs to do two contradictory things: rebuild American manufacturing and raise massive amounts of revenue for the U.S. government.
Those two things aren't contradictory. One will happen, or the other one will happen. Or both will happen.
Which one do you dislike, Freder? Rebuilding American manufacturing? Or raising revenue for the U.S. government? These are very basic planks of the liberal agenda! And now you're against them. Remarkable.
Manufacturing In Mexico is now cheaper than China, and it also is in Vietnam, and other nations that are not a determined military threat to the U.S.. As Trump said, China is playing this wong.
Another factor in our favor is that automation has now offset the advantage that countries like China have with cheap labor. In many cases it will be better to bring manufacturing home to have it closer to the biggest market, ours.
"As Trump said, China is playing this wong." Please tell me this isn't a typo.
"Then hamburger will cost as much as ribeye steak. You might as well buy the steak and make your own hamburger..."
Now you're getting it.
baghdadbob said, "I worry that China will respond by tightening its grip on Taiwan, and use control of Taiwan's essential semiconductor industry as the ultimate, uh, chip in this trade war."
There's a plan to rig every two (not yet in production), three, and four nanometer chip production machine at TSMC with explosive charges as well as the engineering databases behind firewalls at that company.
China will inherit a nothing but a smoking ruin, and the engineers will have been evacuated long before they get there.
I don't make typos. They are all secret messages.
removes 100% of tax on tips, 100% tax on Social Security, and 20% tax on pass-through entities like S Corps and LLCs.
Can you please explain how federal income tax on social security is a tax on "labor". Besides, if you are relying on social security for a large portion (or even all) of your retirement income, you are not paying Federal income tax anyway. (Remember when you guys were bitching about how many low income people don't pay any Federal income tax at all).
Same with tax on tips or overtime. The vast majority of tipped and hourly workers pay relatively low Federal income taxes. Most tipped workers (e.g., your average Waffle House or Olive Garden waitress) don't make enough to be subject to Federal income tax. Why should a waiter at a fine dining restaurant who might make 100K+ (the vast majority of which is in tips) be exempted from Federal income tax while the plumber or electrician you a laud has to pay Federal income tax on all of his income (excluding overtime).
Ms. Althouse gets it. I think most people do including most Democrat politicians, they just can't be seen supporting Trump. They have no off-ramp, they're just stuck on the Highway to Hell.
"Bad news for Harbor Freight.
And Home Depot, Tractor Supply, Ace Hardware, Lowes, Amazon and Walmart."
And every plumber, carpenter, electrician, building contractor, etc., that buys from them.
U.S. goods are significantly more expensive than those manufactured in China, and we produce few of the items that companies and consumers in middle- and lower-income countries require. Forcing these countries to purchase from us rather than China is akin to compelling lower-income consumers to shop at Whole Foods instead of Walmart.
Yes you can.
Yes you can…and there will be some market where the US instantly is competitive, exports rise, all while new say China tariffs go to the USGov revenue stream. It isn’t and either/or digital….
"Honest Democrats should be completely on board with what Trump is doing."
If there were any.
Time for another pandemic?
Bob Boyd said, "Time for another pandemic?"
"I'm workin on it I'm workin on it..." - Fauci
"You can't think it through, but Trump and his team obviously have."
Lots of people seem to be thinking "I can't figure out what Trump's trying to do, so he's an idiot."
Covid, Katrina, Tariffs, can't let a crisis go to waste, it's right there in the Democratic rulebook.
Batya Ungar-Sargon, who I link to at 9:21, was calling herself a Marxist three years ago. She reminds me of the neo-cons of yesteryear, those red diaper babies who became Reaganites.
I wonder how long Bernie Sanders can hold out? It's got to annoy him at some level that the left now hates the Jews. And he's been in favor of tariffs for his whole life!
I've always had a sense that Bernie Sanders was honest. Because the man can't dress and he's incapable of putting up a decent facade. So I'd love it if a reporter -- that used to be a profession -- would ask him questions like, "Do you think there is any anti-Semitism on the left?" or "You've always liked tariffs. What do you think of Trump's tariffs?"
I know he's making money on the Eat the Rich tour, with the bodacious bartender. At what point does he feel like he's a scam artist?
It's going to be a rocky ride for most of us for a year or so. Trump is converting the current trade paradigm to rubble. Things could be great in a year or two--or maybe not. Meanwhile I'm not setting my hair on fire--I'll ride it out.
Progressives oppose Trump's policies because any success that Trump may have will be a rebuke to them. And every policy Trump pursues will have unintended negative consequences that the progressives can use as ammunition in the next election cycle. If progressives didn't oppose Trump's policies, they would own the failures, but only partially own the successes.
This isn't ideology. It's game theory.
Trump's experience as a "businessman" has taught him that default is not very painful. Beware.
Anyway, I want to address the elephant in the room, could rising yields be expected inflation from tariffs getting priced in?
It's obvious Freder has only a surface understanding of economics.
"Can you please explain how federal income tax on social security is a tax on "labor"."
Social Security is MY MONEY that I MADE with MY LABOR. It never was the government's money. I paid 7.5%, and my employer contributed 7.5% of my income throughout my lifetime. Their 7.5% was part of my pay package ... in other words, it was MY MONEY, they merely paid it for me to Social Security.
If you tax my Social Security payout, then you are taxing my labor. Because my labor paid for my Social Security. Social Security isn't a handout, like food stamps or welfare. It's an (forced) insurance contract I entered into with the government, and paid premiums for my whole life. If I die early enough, (say from government-produced COVID19) I won't even get back the money I paid in. Gee ... I wonder why Fauci created COVID19?
Secondly ... almost nobody can survive purely on Social Security alone. Many older people MUST WORK even when they are retired. If I work, my Social Security gets reduced for some asinine reason ... thanks to Democrat tax policy.
Trump is trying to correct this and I hope Democrats continue opposing him because this is keeping Democrats OUT of power as they try to STEAL my Social Security.
"Saint Croix said...
At what point does he (Bernie Sanders) feel like he's a scam artist?
His fourth million dollar home?
The real test below the surface is who can survive the reaction of their people? The Chinese risk a bloody uprising from unemployment and a destroyed currency, Tiananmen II. The U.S. risks putting Democrats back in power. Both need to be avoided at al costs.
Social Security is money left after they lost all they took from me. There isn't any left, so they borrow it. Then, they tax that and lose that money too. What a system.
PedoFredo said:
" ...doesn't understand how a progressive income tax works."
That is because it does not work. Even the lost souls overcame the corrupt leftists in the Peoples Republic of Chicagostan and told J(abba) B.
Pritzker to go to hell on that.
I have no idea how this will all play out but I simply love all different takes on it. Across the board. The open debate is glorious!
Bernie knows how ruthlessly the Dems destroy apostates.
If I work, my Social Security gets reduced for some asinine reason ... thanks to Democrat tax policy.
Not a lie, but close. If you continue to work before full retirement age, your social security will be reduced (generally by $1 for every $2 you make). After full retirement age you will not be docked for wages.
"hope that Mr. Trump succumbs to domestic pressure to reverse course..."
Trump will never reverse course. He's out to crush China.
Today I saw Anthony Blinken being interviewed by Andrew Sorkin of CNBC. Blinken was Fredo. "Mike, you don't talk to Mo Green like that!"
"Trump, you don't talk to China like that!"
Michael, of course, had Mo Green killed when he wouldn't let the Corleones buy him out.
Trump is Michael. He has more power than China and he's not going to take any more grief from China.
Why aren't progressives on Trump's side here?
1. They are constitutionally incapable of agreeing with Trump.
2. The progressive state keeps the people in check by numbing them with Netflix and cheap consumer goods. The idea of having a robust, industrious working class, or expensive, high quality food or goods, is anathema to them. Artisanal products for me, dollar store Chinese crap for thee.
3. As an outgrowth of #2, their commitment to environmentalism and workers' rights is a sham.
Speed Queen are still manufactured in Ripon Wisconsin, and they really are worth the extra money. I have 3 Speed Queen driers at my AirBNB property and they just keep on working for me. They probably run 6 hours/day 7 days a week. If I was buying junk driers with all kinds of electronic "features" from Home Depot, I would have had to replace them multiple times.
@Dave Begley,
"Chairman Xi, you can have my answer now if you'd like? My offer is this. Nothing. Not even the tariffs on that cheap crap at Walmart, which I would appreciate you putting up personally." - Don Trumpo Del Corleone
A one-party dictatorship with roots dating back millennia vs. a guy whose effective power could be gone in 19 months. Not a fair fight.
"Why aren't progressives on Trump's side here?"
Come on, if Trump talked about how having a right hand is the best most beutiful thing. The democrats and the Left would all start cutting their right hands off. They don't care if democrats were for tarrifs in the past. They only care that anything that Trump does or wants is bad, and must be resisted at all costs.
Althouse: “Why aren't progressives on Trump's side here?” I know this isn’t a serious question, so I accept the invitation.
Because they are too deeply enmeshed in TDS. They would/will flush the country for it. Trump has shown us the enemy.
"If you continue to work before full retirement age"
That's cute, Freder. However, when I entered the Social Security system, the full retirement age was 65.
Then they started raising it. Changing the deal. Stealing my benefits that way.
Stealing them. Rat bastards.
Heard and McDonald Islands
These uninhabited islands have exported before.
Once by a typo, but another island exported machinery by EU sellers trying to dodge tariffs.
“ China's annual exports total about $3.5 trillion. About $500 billion of that (15 percent) is with the United States.”
Good. Now tell me when U.S. imports amount to 15% of total Chinese imports.
They’re currently at 6%.
all beef products are heavily subsidized in this country, from production through processing
More truthfully, ALL agriculture is subsidized (if you want to say heavily then compared to what?) in the USA, and yes cattle benefit from it. $220B over last 30 years is a pretty light bill compared to what government wastes money on, and yields $1.5T in GDP meaning the USA gets a decent return on the subsidy investment AND healthy domestically grown meats and vegetables. Farming/ranching is a risky low-margin business at the individual operator level.
'The impact on China is mainly that Chinese products have nowhere to go,'
Who's going to pay $150 for a Red Sox jersey in... Colombia?
What is the pro-labor argument against Trump's tariffs?
ORANGE MAN BAD! CONVICTED FELON! MEAN TWEETS!
That's cute, Freder. However, when I entered the Social Security system, the full retirement age was 65.
And SS income was tax-exempt. At least the tax bill restores that.
China can absorb more pain. The Chinese people suffered tens of millions of deaths as only part of the pain of their past communist government, and I'm certain their current communist government is willing and able to see tens, nay, hundreds of millions more die in support of the CCP! Onward to glory, China!
Or maybe the Chinese people can find 90,000,000 lamp posts and bridges and balcony railings and enough rope to eliminate their elite government cadre in full.
Faster please: Could robots replace junk making China?
I'm not poor, but we're very frugal and we shop at Walmart almost exclusively. I have a lot of contact with the working class. One thing people don't recognize is that less wealthy people buy a lot of crap. Hoarders almost. Because it's so cheap. I actually don't think most people would be upset if there wasn't a giant Easter basket at Walmart for $25.
Used car prices and groceries matter a lot more. Used car prices have been almost unbearable since covid; illegal immigration certainly didn't help for low end prices. If prices drop for that and pantry items stay flat, there's not going to be a lot of tears.
Puts?
THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
Or is he he's pumping $DJT ??
tcrosse said...
Bad news for Harbor Freight.
4/9/25, 9:28 AM
Harbor Freight doesn't have to be cheap, but the cheapest.
They have been going up market with their Icon line, which, while not cheap, they are cheaper than some of the competing products.
Also, my bellweather there is Nitrile Gloves - they have gone up to (approximately) 3x the price in 3 years, and are not coming down.
But the price of eggs damnit!!!
The same people who complain about this, also say that a $20 minimum wage (or whatever) will fix everything.
Could robots replace the overpaid humans currently making nut-kick house calls?
The president of the U.S. is publicly shilling for the stock of a company he owns a big stake in. And of course Republicans are fine with it, because their motto is "No one cares."
Trump does so many crazy things that we barely even notice when he becomes the first president in U.S. history to give stock-market tips to voters.
I laugh at all of you Boomers who think that you're not taking more than you put into Social Security.
CJinPA said...
“A one-party dictatorship with roots dating back millennia vs. a guy whose effective power could be gone in 19 months. Not a fair fight.”
But FDR’s side still beat Hirohito’s side, even if FDR wasn’t around for it 19 months after Oct 1943.
"However, when I entered the Social Security system, the full retirement age was 65.
Then they started raising it. Changing the deal."
When the Social Security program started paying benefits, retirement age was 65 and life expectancy was 62 years. Today, retirement age is 67 and life expectancy is 79 years. Complaining about a two year increase from 65 to 67 is just plain silly.
The "hurt" to America is amplified by our predilection for expressing unhappiness. If you listen to the people who measure these things, unhappiness is our resting face.
Headline: The US has dropped to its lowest-ever position, outside the top 20. (world's happiest countries)
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/what-you-need-to-know-about-trumps-tariffs
This is intriguing, and (to me) provides a relatively straightforward explanation of what Trump is trying to do here (HINT--It is all about CHY-NA).
To me, this also explains why the tariffs weren't pre-negotiated (as if that was possible) or telegraphed--too many General Milleys still lurking.
I laugh at all of you Boomers who think that you're not taking more than you put into Social Security.
True, but 2 points on that:
1) Nobody "put" the money in. The money was taken whether you liked it or not.
2) If you had invested that money for your own retirement you would certainly be intending to take more than you put in.
"I laugh at all of you Boomers who think that you're not taking more than you put into Social Security."
The amount you put into social security is the wrong number. You should be considering the amount you'd have if you had invested the money you put into SS.
"Why aren't progressives on Trump's side here?"
Because they can't be. Orange Man Bad. They've embraced an extreme mindset that doesn't allow their enemy any leeway. No matter what he does, it's wrong and evil.
This is why they were unable to say anything positive about DJ, the honorary Secret Service member. Trump did it; therefore, it's wrong. No matter what it is.
Until the Democrats cut the Progs loose from the party, they're going to be on the wrong side of 80/20 for a long time.
And yes, that money was "taken", not "put in".
Mason G: When the Social Security program started paying benefits, retirement age was 65 and life expectancy was 62 years. Today, retirement age is 67 and life expectancy is 79 years. Complaining about a two year increase from 65 to 67 is just plain silly.
If an insurance company did that with an annuity, they would be going to jail.
US government debt sinks as pivotal $39bn Treasury auction looms ~ FT
What an unmitigated and entirely self-inflicted disaster.
"THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!!"
It might still drop, and maybe even a lot, but does someone here think it won't go back up even higher? Anybody?
The Dems are certainly pro-union. The Teachers' Unions and the Federal Employees Unions. And the SEIU.
"Why aren't progressives on Trump's side here?"
Because it's Trump and, in their minds, supporting him would be giving support and comfort to the enemy.
Trump could save a toddler from being hit by a car and the Progressives would find a reason to hate him for it.
I do think that's it's ironic that my Progressive friends are bending over backwards to try and say that the evil rich are profiting from the stock market drop. They say things like, "And now they'll get even richer by buying the dip!" Or "This market drop is hurting our seniors 401Ks!" (Even though most people know that you need to be invested in safer things like bonds when you're at retirement age.)
Saint Croix said...
Batya Ungar-Sargon, who I link to at 9:21, was calling herself a Marxist three years ago. She reminds me of the neo-cons of yesteryear, those red diaper babies who became Reaganites.
I wonder how long Bernie Sanders can hold out? It's got to annoy him at some level that the left now hates the Jews. And he's been in favor of tariffs for his whole life!
...
Bernie has always hated the Jews.
I certainly agree with you Boyd and Mason, but I'm not even going to get any return. We're just paying taxes for the previous generations right now.
Kakistocracy said...
The president of the U.S. is publicly shilling for the stock of a company he owns a big stake in. And of course Republicans are fine with it, because their motto is "No one cares."
Trump does so many crazy things that we barely even notice when he becomes the first president in U.S. history to give stock-market tips to voters.
4/9/25, 11:47 AM
...
I don't disagree. But at some point... when the last president and his family make millions from foreign governments to alter foreign policy, when he threatens Ukraine withdrawing funds if they look into his son's pay to play schemes, when Russia gives the Clintons millions to buy our uranium... at some point you have to see that no one complained about that and finally our guy does 1/100000 of what others did and all of a sudden it's a problem? No. It's hypocrisy. No one complains when your side does it x100000. So fine. Don't complain when our side starts to do it.
It's like Harry Reid and judges and getting rid of the filibuster and making it a majority vote. Are you sure you want to do this? Because if that's the new rule, we'll play by the new rule too. And suddenly we are filling up open slots with conservative judges and that's not fair because filibuster! You can't do that! Filibuster. Well you got rid of the filibuster. No we ONLY did that for federal judges not supreme court!
Well my friend... what's sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.
I think there are two conflicting attitudes behind that slogan. One is the view—call it Muskism—that the US could compete right now in a zero-tariff world. The alternative—call it Navarroism—is that we will need a long period of sustained protectionism to rebuild our manufacturing capacity.
I'm reminded of what happened in the aftermath of World War II.
England and Germany had both been devastated; Germany more so, and more recently. In both nations, food was rationed, prices were set by government fiat, and people were undernourished and unhappy.
A year or two after the end of the war, West Germany wisely decided to rip the band-aid off and let the free market set prices for everything, even staple foods. Food production skyrocketed and in a matter of months the people were well-fed and happy with no rationing.
In the UK, by contrast, the stupid, mean little petty tyrants of the Labour Party kept price controls and ration coupons in place for more than a decade. Food rationing did not end until 1954, and coal was rationed until 1958. Farmers went on the dole instead of working hard to feed the people, who survived on whale meat and anchovies and Spam.
It is a great pity that the battle-tested men of Britain did not rise up as a mob, seize Clement Atlee and Aneurin Bevan and all the other socialist Labourite enemies of humanity, and nail their severed heads to the Tower Bridge. Much suffering, which is still going on under the tyrannical Labour scum, could have been avoided.
Lem, the postscript to your comment about the U.S. dropping down the list of the "world's happiest countries" should have been the footnote at the bottom of the article:
"Critics of the World Happiness Report point out that survey questions measure satisfaction with socioeconomic conditions as opposed to individual emotional happiness." I've been to most of the top 20 countries and maintained contacts with people I've met there, and this survey is not going to convince me that it's an accurate measure of "individual emotional happiness" in these countries. Liberal perceptions of what things OUGHT to make us happy are very different from the actual state of mind of the people in these countries. And ours.
Trump caved. 90 day 'pause' on the tariffs after market losses and people fleeing the very Treasury Bills he was trying to get a lower rate on.
So Trump has blinked — a 90 day pause except for China......
It's concerning that the fate of trillions of dollars in U.S. investment and business activity now hinges entirely on the whims of a single individual—a capricious and poorly informed one, no less.
I certainly agree with you Boyd and Mason, but I'm not even going to get any return. We're just paying taxes for the previous generations right now.
I don't know how old you are, Birches, but you are not wrong.
Freder Frederson said...
"Besides, if you are relying on social security for a large portion (or even all) of your retirement income, you are not paying Federal income tax anyway."
That's not true.
If you are single and your only income in 2024 was Social Security, then you start owing taxes at $14,601 and above. (If you take the standard deduction.) Most people on Social Security get more than that with Social Security. (The average annual benefit is $23,712.)
This is why they were unable to say anything positive about DJ, the honorary Secret Service member. Trump did it; therefore, it's wrong. No matter what it is.
Not one single Democrat at the national level has gone on record to say that violence and vandalism against innocent Tesla drivers and employees is wrong, let alone the threats against Musk himself. Chuck Schumer was directly asked to address the issue yesterday, and said nothing at all about all the left-wing terrorist attacks, but took the opportunity to bash Musk yet again.
We cannot and should not live with these enemy communist Democrats in our midst any longer. Unless we have a peaceful national divorce and cut these terrorists entirely out of our society, we are heading for civil war.
"The collective MSNBC left are hoping for WWIII and total collapse...."
No. That's what all sensible people are fearing will result from Trump's reckless, incompetent, and ignorant personal orders by edict. Even if it does not lead to WWIII, it appears to be crashing the US into an iceberg.
In 2022 Quinnipiac asked If the U.S. was invaded would you stay and fight or flee the country.
Republicans: 68% would stay and fight, 25% would leave.
Independents: 57% would stay and fight, 36% would leave.
Democrats: 40% would stay and fight, 52% would leave.
With Trump as President now, I bet the difference is even more stark. It's not an invasion, but who is going to fight for this country in the form the battle is taking?
Used car prices have been almost unbearable since covid
They've been unbearable since the idiotic "Cars for Clunkers" program under that fool Obama. Not only did the price of used cars skyrocket, but the "clunkers" were melted for scrap instead of being parted out in junkyards to help keep other older cars running longer. A more shining example of Bastiat's broken-window fallacy has never been seen in the entire economic history of the world. It was one of the most economically punitive left-wing policies ever inflicted on the lower classes by the Democrat scum who claim to speak for them, and also one of the most wasteful and ecologically damaging industrial policies ever imposed. Keeping old cars running is far cleaner and more efficient than building new ones.
From what I read the 90 pause is for everyone except China., because the rest are working with us.
The Market just went nuts.
"If you are single and your only income in 2024 was Social Security, then you start owing taxes at $14,601 and above."
You might want to check that.
Robert Cook: "No. That's what all sensible people are fearing will result from Trump's reckless, incompetent, and ignorant personal orders by edict. Even if it does not lead to WWIII, it appears to be crashing the US into an iceberg."
LOL
THIS JUST IN: Unreconstructed Stalinists in 2025 STILL have no idea how global markets and many financial instruments work.
Unexpectedly...
personal orders by edict
That’s what the executive does…our system does not require him to ask permission every authority on the political left. At least that’s how it’s supposed to work…
And just like that, or more accurately, in just 7 days, Trump owns the world.
it’s confirmed- no credit to Trump for market rallies, only declines…the usual political asymmetry…
The off-ramp is free trade!
Full credit for this here…
Abacus Boy LLR-democratical Rich: "So Trump has blinked — a 90 day pause except for China......"
LOL, look who just caught up, sort of. Way to go Many Days Late Boy! Its ALWAYS been about China.
Our Harry Sisson of Althouse blog has somehow, incredibly, almost impossibly, squeezed half a dozen major incorrect economic and trade predictions into as many days! How does he do it? He makes Reverse Cramer seem like Nostradamus!!
But wait, it gets even better...if you can believe it! (And I always do as I have great faith in Abacus Boy screwing the pooch again and again)..
LLR-democratical Rich: "It's concerning that the fate of trillions of dollars in U.S. investment and business activity now hinges entirely on the whims of a single individual—a capricious and poorly informed one, no less."
The New Soviet Democraticals take time out from defending their islamic supremacist allies and murderous drug cartel allies to go Full Beijing Support for their ChiCom allies.
Gotta be tough for these pro-groomer, America Last whackjobs given Trumps Whole of Govt approach to try and undo the damage of 30 years of the globalists handing the ChiComs the "keys to the city" (WTO/Developing Nation Status, for example) so to speak and enabling the complete hollowing out of the US middle class, whom the democrats and GOPe despise with a capricious recklessness exhibited by every economic and trade policy decision over these last 30 years.
New sheriff in town....who just delivered the biggest rally in 5 years...something Abacus Boy Rich said was literally impossible just days ago!
Again, how does Rich do it? Our very own Reverse Cramer...perhaps Althouse could monetize Rich's serial "wrongness" via content sharing next to the Amazon portal since Rich's "wrongness" appears to have no upper bound!
Boyd: "Could robots replace the overpaid humans currently making nut-kick house calls?"
You asked for it - you got it:
AI Crotch-Kicking Robot says...
This isn't a bad gig for an AI Robot. I ride in a self-driving car to a guy's house (it's always a guy), ring the doorbell, kick him in the crotch, get back in the self-driving car.
(roundhouse, roundhouse)
My kicks are continuously calibrated so I cause pain without permanent damage. Of course, the client signs all sorts of waivers. And does one more consent verification right before I show up at the door.
(punt, punt)
I do sophisticated facial recognition and Bluetooth handshakes to make sure I am kicking the right guy in the crotch.
(instep kick, instep kick)
Of course, I have to make sure the door and curtains are closed so no bystanders call the police. Although it's mostly AI Police Robots nowadays, and they automatically know who and where I am.
(high knee, high knee)
There was a bill to make us wear a yellow vest with "AI CROTCH-KICKING ROBOT" on it to avoid confusion, but luckily it didn't pass. Most of our clients don't want anyone else to know they use AI Crotch-Kicking Robots.
(Rockette kick, Rockette kick)
And the ones who do, the company really tries not to do business with. They usually have other problems, and in this day and age we don't need word-of-mouth. Most of our clients come from targeted advertising thru other AI products.
(mule kick, mule kick)
Your AI Refrigerator knows you like getting kicked in the crotch before you know you like getting kicked in the crotch.
I am not Laslo.
JSM
Freder said...
If you continue to work before full retirement age, your social security will be reduced (generally by $1 for every $2 you make). After full retirement age you will not be docked for wages.
Now apply those same rules to government pensions, where you can start collecting well before age 62.
Progressives refuse to support any policy associated with Trump or MAGA. Witness their willingness to torch their own Teslas, and to protest any and all Fed agency cuts, and to defend any violent undocumented "migrant" arrested on serious charges, and weep "who will make the beds, pick the crops, wash the cars!" when military-age face-tattooed gangbangers are deported to their home countries.
China's manufacturing economy absolutely depends on American's addictive purchasing of cheap Chinese stuff. Target and Walmart are entirely dependent on cheap Chinese stuff. Macys and Kohls are entirely dependent on cheap Chinese stuff. Home Depot and Lowes are dependent on cheap Chinese stuff.
Never get between a progressive-liberal and his/her/their Apple cell-phone.
NotIllinoisResident: "Macys and Kohls are entirely dependent on cheap Chinese stuff."
Both Kohls and Macy's has been shuttering many of their poorer performing stores before this last week of rapid events. Macy's closing an estimated 150 stores by next year.
Hassayamper: "It is a great pity that the battle-tested men of Britain did not rise up as a mob, seize Clement Atlee and Aneurin Bevan and all the other socialist Labourite enemies of humanity, and nail their severed heads to the Tower Bridge. Much suffering, which is still going on under the tyrannical Labour scum, could have been avoided."
That is beautiful. Someone should use it as the epigram to a chapter in an Econ textbook or something.
Having said that, however, the battle-tested men were the ones who voted Labour. They got what they wanted, good and hard.
JSM
Kakistocracy said...
"So Trump has blinked — a 90 day pause except for China......"
He didn't blink, poopyboy, the other guy did.
If stupid were painful you'd be a heroin addict.
Glenn looks so young.
And that backdrop!
"If an insurance company did that with an annuity, they would be going to jail."
If an insurance company took money out of your paycheck without your approval, they'd go to jail, too.
I maintain that raising the retirement age two years is trivial when contrasted with the original payroll confiscation. You're free to disagree, of course.
The problem with trump's policies, as usual, is that nothing is really thought out
Trump's been talking about this for more than 30 years. Pretty sure he's thought it through.
"'The impact on China is mainly that Chinese products have nowhere to go,'"
Boo hoo.
"Why aren't progressives on Trump's side here?"
Because they don't hold their positions out of principle. They are a tribe.
I can’t believe the number of commenters who seem to be totes accepting of what has been going on for the last 35 years or so. And nobody doing a goddam thing about it.
"And nobody doing a goddam thing about it."
And not surprisingly, the people running the government for all that time are getting rich off not doing a goddam thing about it.
I'm in Australia in the construction industry. Our suppliers are apparently already inundated with offers of cheap products from Chinese factories. The Chinese are VERY worried.
"Howard said...
I think we can all agree that the Chinese people can take much more pain than the United States. We complain about hang nails why while they are losing an arm and a leg. The only way we win this battle is to make their pain so unbearable that a jeopardizes PRC/Xi existence."
You need to remember that the people in alot of these chinese factories were more or less slave labour existing on subsistence level food. If those factories get shut down China is going to have alot of angry starving peasants. Historically that doesn't go well for authoritarian regimes.
@Cameron - We are in Sydney right now. Heard a radio report this morning that China is suggesting that China and Australia should work together in the interest of "free trade". Australia's response was: 'Not interested'.
Of course SS payouts are taxable. From the IRS: You report the taxable portion of your Social Security benefits on line 6b of Form 1040 or Form 1040-SR. Your benefits may be taxable if the total of (1) one-half of your benefits, plus (2) all of your other income, including tax-exempt interest, is greater than the base amount for your filing status.Nov 8, 2024. Two years ago I owed several thousands in taxes because I made a shitload of money with two jobs and collecting my SS. First time I every owed. I had to enter a payment plan to pay it off. This past year, I increased my withholding and they took a portion of my refund for the remainder I owed. So FF, your last sentence is incorrect.
Any President can usually do quite a lot—if the things are what the other side wants. Dems, not progressives, oppose Trump actions so as to demonize him. Even when he does things prior Dems claimed to support.
The Dem Demonization Strategy.
Of course SS payouts are taxable.
I read yesterday that in the new budget the Senate just passed, SS payments are not taxed.
Also Trump is keeping his campaign promise, and we're not taxing tips anymore.
You "working class heroes" of the left out to get your head out of your ass and pay attention to what Trump is actually doing. Tax breaks for the poor! Nice, right?
drill baby drill ANOTHER trump babble that aint going nowhere after his imbecile tariffs as rigs are stopping OIL was $80 a barrel when he got in now $60 and probably going into $50.00 . This guy is always a day late and a dollar short. Remember touting low low gas prices during his first reign,yeah because he killed 500,000 people and everyone was locked in the house not driving a car therefore not needing gas.Trump minds cant put that al together they just thing "what a great deal that was" DRILL BABY DRILL i CALL BULLSHIT!
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