KTAR News reports on the only Senate race that is still not yet determined.
November 9, 2024
"Republican Kari Lake took yet another bite out of Democratic U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego’s lead in the race for Arizona’s open U.S. Senate seat on Friday evening."
"After cutting nearly 13,000 votes off Gallego’s lead on Thursday and Friday morning, Lake gained about 2,100 more votes when Maricopa County released the results of nearly 100,000 ballots just before 7 p.m. The state’s largest county is expected to release another update Saturday morning.... Gallego... was ahead 5.4 points in the initial results posted after the polls closed on Election Day...."
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RealClearPolitics.com has Gallegos’s lead down to 33,500 with 18% still to count. That differs from the figure in KTAR’s report.
Thank you for the update
The cartel lawyer is trying to block her thats fontes the atty general
Pipe down c thomas howell
This individual is always this rude. That's what makes this person's position in this space "singular". Hopefully, this will all soon be deleted, including your response and mine. Best to pretend it never happened and simply hope this disappears.
From the linked article, for reference
The evening batch left Gallego ahead by 33,983 votes, a difference of 1.2 percentage points (49.6%-48.4%), according to the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office results page.
Taking the article, a look at the Arizona by county current results on CNN, and doing some back of an envelope math, Lake could pull out a victory. Assuming Maricopa (350,000 remaining) keeps breaking 50% for Gallego and 48% for Lake, and the remaining counties (275,000 votes to tally) which include some small but heavily Republican counties break 40% for Gallego and 60% for Lake, the final count could wind up with Lake getting 1.68 million votes to Gallego's 1.67 million.
As Leland notes, it's KTAR that's trying to hide the football by mixing up the number of votes released with the decrease in Gallego's lead to avoid giving a figure for how many votes Lake got.
…we were watching one of those feel good CNN meltdown montages last night. There was a moment when the panel was trying to obfuscate the fact that at one point before AZ had been called for Trump there were fewer ballots outstanding than the confirmed deficit Kamala needed to make up. The panel floundered for a good 60 seconds trying to spin that one up until one finally cracked under the pressure to lie…
Kari Lake must be one of the Republican women who's hot, is what I gather. I haven't been following whatever her soap opera saga is but a man would be better.
It’s rally a point of view thing. Now every story about restaurant opening, travel, movies, sports, whatever is tainted with a ‘we’ll try to make you feel better’ qualifier. I feel damn good, thank you…
In the count so far, it appears around 75,000 Trump voters voted for Gallego over Lake. It’s nice to know they draw the line somewhere.
Shes hawt and courageous
Her priority is the border and crime, the cartel see fontes and richer are not
It doesnt matter, but it does: can someone tell me what Lake’s ethnicity is? And why does no one, on either side, talk about it?
And please, no “we’re past that as a country” answers. I was past that 50 years ago. It took many painful lessons for me to realize that we really aren’t.
JSM
Another stunningly iconoclastic take by rhhardin.
I would not be surprised to see Lake get more votes than Harris, even if Lake loses.
If you vote for gallegos you negate trumps extraordinary exercise
Also, it's not true that this is the only Senate race that is still not yet determined.
Bob Casey - Democrat election denier - is refusing to concede in Pennsylvania's Senate race.
She was perhaos the only honest reporter in her market
Strange that the Maricopa County vote drops seem to be getting redder over time. Almost like they were trying to drag this out as long as they could.
BTW Decision Desk now has Kari Lake at 99% to win the race.
That one is going to come down to how many votes the Democrats in Philly can manufacture. Casey needs the remaining vote to break almost 2:1 in his favor and that ain't happening anywhere but there.
Sorry.i think I may have misread the chart on Decision Desk HQ. I can’t tell if the 99% figure is for the AZ race or for overall control of the Senate. But why would the Senate number be 99% when the good guys already have won 52 seats?
I read last night that a pretty significant portion of the remaining votes are from blood-red outlying counties that have informally agreed to drag their feet on reporting to make the job of Democrat ballot-stuffers in Maricopa and Pima Counties that much harder. Yavapai County was at only 71% reported and Yuma County was less than half. Both are Republican bastions. The Maricopa drops are coming in for Lake too. My vote and my wife’s vote have not yet been tallied, and I expect our Scottsdale precinct will give her 60%.
DDHQ is giving Lake only 35 percent chance of winning.
Sad that the local "news" outlet covers the election by studiously avoiding giving facts. You have to go to a third-party site like RCP or DDHQ to see hard numbers. Just one more data point in the overwhelming evidence that traditional media is dying or dead and they just don't care.
I went into the AZ SOS website. There are only six counties outstanding. If both candidates receive the same percentage of the vote in those counties on the outstanding ballots as they did on the ones already counted, Lake will only make up 2,500 votes of the 33,000 she's trailing. The prediction markets have Lake with only about an 11% chance of winning. Barring something odd in the six remaining counties, I'd be surprised if Lake won. And "something odd" almost always favors the Dems--not the Republicans. Too bad Lake ran 139,000 votes behind Trump. Lots of Trump voters apparently thought it was smart to send a Democrat to the Senate. Gallego got 32,000 more votes than Kamala and Lake got 139,000 fewer votes than Trump. Nice work AZ!
Florida finished counting 4 days ago and they have 4 times as many people.
Polymarket has Lake with a 13% chance of winning as of Nov 9, but had her at 4.6% on Nov 6. She may pull it out, but considering Arizona's recent election practices I doubt she'll be declared the winner.
https://polymarket.com/event/arizona-us-senate-election-winner
Fontes is Secretary of State, not AG. Go take your Adderall.
They are dragging it out. Adrian Fontes (AZ Sec State) used to be Maricopa Co Recorder. He's trying to figure out how to throw the election to Gallego without getting caught.
John Fetterman is backing Casey but is waiting until all the votes are counted. There he goes again, starting to make sense. As long as there are no vote shenanigans (not a sure thing), Fetterman is likely to accept a McCormick we win.
Florida could have had 6 full elections this week and all would have been counted and announced before Arizona and Nevada quit their nonsense.
In the count so far, it appears around 75,000 Trump voters voted for Gallego over Lake. It’s nice to know they draw the line somewhere
Arizona Republicans are still split between conservatives and McCain machine RINOs. Kari needlessly insulted the McCainites and lost their support.
I am surprised that she is doing as well as she is. She was massively overspent by Gallego and her position on abortion was widely characterized as extreme.
Gallego is a socialist more aligned with AOC than Arizona Democrats. His position on abortion is no limits. Also note that AZ Democrats ran on fixing the border this year. Their lies were blatant.
He prefers the company of his pooch. To each his own.
Mariposa County election board is trying to steal it again. They were audited over the 2020 election, and refused to cooperate with the auditors. They lied, destroyed evidence, obstructed the investigation, and constantly went to court to stop every request for data.
For some reason know only to Arizonians, this county seems to operate like an independent Kingdom, with no supervision from the State. Or the Arizonia Supreme Court. The Arizona Republicans did almost nothing to clean up Mariposa County elections when they controlled the legislature. And they don't seem to have gone to court.
And another reason the race is so close is because Mitch McConnell and his super-pac gave almost no money to Kari Lake. Instead giving 25 million to Hogan so he get 45 percent of the vote and lose the Senate Race in MD. Of McConnell has been doing this since 2010. If he doesn't like the Senate candidate. If they're too tea party, or trumpy, he's lets them lose. Better to have a minority in the senate full of McConnell hacks, then a senate majority.
There are some that draw the line at insisting the votes be counted and returned on Election Day, rather than weeks later, at the convenience of the cheaters. And amazingly, in far bigger, more complicated states than Arizona, this is precisely what happens.
I think it's fair to say at this point, and based on the prompt results in much larger jurisdictions, that the election processing methods in Arizona and Nevada, and the people responsible for them, are substandard. And possibly deliberately so.
I can offer a couple of theories as to why the late counts have favored Lake- (1) the red counties have deliberately not finished their reporting because Pima County has a history to trying to report last so that they have a number to target; (2)-the more likely explanation- is that the ballots in Arizona are counted first-in to last in. #2 is more likely since ballots turned in on Election Day are going to favor Republicans still- note that Trump has greatly extended his lead over Harris from the initial count dumped Tuesday night almost winning the state now 53-47 from what was originally on Tuesday night 51-49.
Lake has a chance but not a good one based on my own back of the envelope calculation, but my calculation is assuming the same ratios hold which could be wrong.
And what RCOCEAN wrote above- Lake got limited support from national Republicans who dumped stupid money on Larry Hogan's dumb ass who was 100% sure to lose his race even if Republicans had spent a billion dollars on his race.
The left are desperate to cheat this one.
right!
Lake would put the Senate into recess, allowing Trump to make appointments. McConnell 's (Thune/Cornyn's) leverage would crumble.
Not living in AZ, I have no dog in this fight and know nothing much about either candidate, except that Lake is a beautiful woman (or should I say Hot Republican?). I do seem to remember some gloating earlier on in the count about how she was getting her butt kicked. There's some pleasure in seeing those folks with egg on their faces.
Just as a marker- if Trump's edge over Harris ends at 54+% to 45%+ rounded then Lake will likely prevail. If not, then Lake is unlikely to overcome Gallego's edge.
The last election saw Lake going out of her way to insult McCain supporters just before the vote. It’s difficult to understand WTF she could’ve been thinking.
to insult McCain supporters == is that different from asking them to grow backbone / a pair?
Kari needlessly insulted the McCainites and lost their support.
=================
is that different from asking them to grow backbone / a pair?
She's a loose cannon and wouldn't be my first choice for anything, but ideal candidates never seem to show up, do they?
Nothing would make me happier than to see Kari Lake lose, and lose badly. She is everything that is wrong with America today.
Yes, how DARE a woman not be champing at the bit to kill all her children and spread her legs for Democrat men... the perfect woman is Kamala Harris, right? And any woman different than that is pure evil!
…glad to see the drugs and therapy are working for you Viki
…glad to see the drugs and therapy are working for you Viki
I wonder if the Republicans would prefer to forgo the extra senate seat just to see this serial failure fade into the sunset.
To paraphrase Wilde, the only thing worse than being insulted, is not being insulted.
In the count so far, it appears around 75,000 Trump voters voted for Gallego over Lake.
You misspelled McCain.
Nothing would make me happier than to see Kari Lake lose, and lose badly.
I suppose that's one way to cope with the fact Trump will soon be your president. Again.
“I wonder if the Republicans would prefer to forgo the extra senate seat just to see this serial failure fade into the sunset.”
She has poor political instincts and has turned two very winnable races for Republicans into Democratic victories. Assuming she doesn’t achieve victory (I don’t think she will), this should be her last campaign. If you can’t defeat a hard-core socialist in a purple state, it’s time to hang it up.
I wonder if the Republicans would prefer to forgo the extra senate seat just to see this serial failure fade into the sunset.
She lost the Governor's race in a highly disputed election to a moron who controlled the voting process.
How else is she a serial failure, Ms. Troll?
I hope that Trump appoints Lake to be head of Homeland Security if Lake has this senate seat stolen or outright loses.
Mistaking passion for competence is the same error Republicans have made in nominating Lake, a novice, for statewide offices. She has no relevant experience for a role in DHS, and would be eaten alive in that job.
Lead up to 1.5%
Lake would have done a better job as governor of AZ than Hobbs. Kari would also be a better senator than Gallegos. She would have at least stood up and helped the people of her state and is not a marxist and gun grabber with ties to the Mexican cartels. If Trump gave her a position in his administration she would do a better job than most since she has the best interest of the country at heart. I believe at DHS Lake would do 100% better for the country than the liar and traitor Mayorkas.
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