Says Doug Sosnik, in "How Harris or Trump Could Win This Deadlocked Presidential Race, in 19 Maps" (NYT).
It sounds as though he has "a clear sense of the winner" this time too, but also has a clear sense of what is wanted from him right now.
The top-rated comment over there — by a lot — is "Harris/Walz will win Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. And they have a good chance of winning Arizona and Georgia. Stay positive, it helps."
The simple point that's made in the article — despite all the fancy map-graphics — is that Harris needs to win all 3 "blue wall" states and Trump only needs to win one.
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The vast majority of Americans absolutely wish for 4 more years of Trump, and absolutely no one wants 4 more years like we just had. Strike that- of course braindead Democrat Party members want that because Democrat Uber Alles!
A week ago, Trump seemed to have all the momentum, but it is not reflected in the polls (yes, I know, people like to say the polls mean nothing, but that greatly overstates their limitations).
National polling has Trump winning by a tiny margin and the reality is this: there is no plausible scenario in which Trump wins the popular vote without sweeping the swing states for an EC landslide. But the swing state polls show a race too tight to call.
They can't both be right. Historically, national polls are better than state polls and all polling tends to undercount the Republican vote.
All that adds up to a comfortable Trump win.
National polling is generally worthless, and doesn't matter even when your side is temporarily "winning." But I am astonished that Trump is over 42 million views on Rogan. Even for Trump, that's a massive draw outside the corporate media- and a serious change even from his 2016 strategy.
There's simply no way they can print up enough ballots for Harris without provoking Americans to believe McVeigh was Right. Which is a gamble th authorities might have taken in 2020, but definitely not now.
Don’t say “every single” if you then have to admit you blew it two elections ago.
This is the NY Times warning its readers that Kamala Harris will lose and they had better get emotionally ready for it.
"The Harris campaign is doing great this past week.
Harris got the endorsement of Diddy party attendees J Lo and LeBron.
Joe Biden nibbled on babies in public
Jill Biden dressed as a pedophile mascot (panda) for Halloween.
Biden called Trump supporters garbage.
Harris surrogate Mark Cuban called women who support Trump weak and dumb.
On the positive side, Bruce Springsteen endorsed Harris but mispronounced her name like only a racist does.
And Harris awkwardly attended a Black barber shop but no one cared."
--Scott Adams makes note of the obvious failed campaign of Hrris and the Stolen Valor / ChiCom VP candidate.
The New Soviet Democratical Cheat Machine will have to be dialed up to 11 to get these marxists across the electoral line.
"Heading into the final weekend of the race, it is not clear which candidate will win.
Yes, it is: Trump
Given Mr. Trump’s resiliency and his advantages in the Sun Belt states, I believe he has a more plausible path to winning the Electoral College than Ms. Harris does.
Given the way GOP voters are turning out in Early Voting, and the way Dem voters are NOT turning out, Trump has a more plausible path to winning the national popular vote, let alone the Electoral College.
Still, I would not count Ms. Harris out, because of the potency of the issue of abortion, her superior ground game and the fact that a majority of Americans do not want four more years of Mr. Trump as president...."
1: Abortion is barely in the top 5 of voter concerns. Illegal immigration, the economy, and free speech, which are all pro-Trump issues, are almost all higher concerns for voters
2: If Harris has a "superior ground game", but the Dems are still being hammered this bad in early voting, it means that voters absolutely hate teh Dems
3: Actually, "a HUGE majority of Americans do not want four more years of" Biden / Harris policies, and Harris has repeatedly said she's going to continue those policies.
So, I will finish with pointing out that drugs are bad for your brain, and being a lying partisan hack like Doug Sosnik is a lot like being stoned
All the happy talk sounds great but I have underestimated the “muh ‘bortions” drones before. I won’t make that mistake again.
Trump's momentum is reflected in the Early Voting numbers, esp. in Nevada, where Jon Ralston, long time Democrat Nevada vote watcher, has essentially thrown in the towel on NV for Harris
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024
His yesterday report had this
More than 876,000 have voted, or 43 percent. I may revert to my original prediction of 1.4 million, which means that 63 percent of the vote is in. Republicans have a 42,000-ballot lead.
There's a reason why Trump has repeatedly said "I'm not signing a national abortion ban"
1: The ban is unconstitutional, just like Roe, just like a national abortion "must be allowed" law would be
2: Trump doesn't want the "muh ‘bortions" drones voting for Harris
"Harris/Walz will win Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. And they have a good chance of winning Arizona and Georgia. Stay positive, it helps."
These people sound like the rubes that pay to watch motivational speakers. They're Tony-Robbins-Sell-Me-This-Pen type people, no wonder so many of their women believe in witchcraft.
Did he have a clear sense of who was going to win in 2000? Did anybody? And what does "winning" even mean today? There's not only the distinction between the popular vote and the electoral vote, but also the distinction between the reported results and the unknowable real results.
I see a big swing towards Trump. Perhaps he could win the popular vote this time. But Democrat get out the vote efforts could deny him that popular vote win and make a steal in the swing states more plausible.
"all polling tends to undercount the Republican vote."
In 2022, polling overcounted the Republican vote.
The top-rated comment over there — by a lot — is "Harris/Walz will win Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Nevada. And they have a good chance of winning Arizona and Georgia. Stay positive, it helps."
to quote Homer (Simpson): wishing Won't make it so
I think that Trump misses a trick on this issue. He's consistent in pointing out that the Dodd decision reverts authority to legislate abortion back to the states, under our federal system of government. What he fails to point out, IMO, is that the power & motivation to decide this, state-by-state, resides with the women voters.
I believe Rs did turn out hugely in '22 but pollsters were surprised by the Dobbs Effect which drove more young people (low propensity voters) "than expected" to the polls to oppose R candidates. The polling was wrong but in a surprising way instead of the usual way.
This is what inspired TPUSA to target young men and motivate them to turn out hugely for Trump this year.
but, to quote the most famous Democrat..
it's Not who votes that counts.. it's WHO COUNTS the votes
just like in Joe Stalin's Soviet Union, the kulaks in in american aren't just Garbage; they are: THE ENEMY
OM makes a good point about 2022. Also, Trump voters seem much more public in expressing support this time around. This concerns me that his undercount will be less than what we have come to expect.
The GerdaMetrics for today:
We are back in coin-flip territory. The betting odds stand at 58%/42% Trump/Harris. Since there is real concern about bias in the betting markets, it is worth looking at Metaculus, which puts the race at 51%/50% (rounding error). Metaculus is a survey of expert predictors and is considered by many smart people as a little better than the betting markets.
I personally still think the superior Dem ground game will result in a Harris win of 2% in both the total vote and the swing states.
IMO Tim's qualifiers "historically" and "tend to" are sufficient to allow for the one national election in which pollsters collectively overestimated R voters (and it wasn't by much). Tim pointed out a trend, which is undeniably the way Tim described it.
Don’t say “every single” ...
Who exactly are you quoting there anyway? Maybe I missed it.
The early vote is your view of the "ground game." Democrats count on an early lead that Republicans cannot overcome on election day. The very low enthusiasm for Harris-Walz is why her polling has trended down ever since the conventions, and enthusiasm helps the GOTV when high and resists it when low. Republicans are outvoting in Clark County NV, the one place D need to win that state. These three trends, party registration, early vote and enthusiasm, all are flashing warning signs at Harris HQ. Mix in the exceedingly low turnout for Black voters and she's in trouble. Maybe they can cheat enough to overcome it, but I don't recall ANY nationwide (ie popular vote) lead for the R candidate in my lifetime.
Until NOW.
It's because we don't know how successful the cheating will be.
We don't know how many people regret the vote they locked in a week or more ago.
If it was a single election day without cheating I would be confident of a Trump victory.
She actually seems to say she will change them but not change them at the same time. So I assume she intends to accelerate all of the bad things.
Harris will NOT win WI. Ann Althouse has voted for Trump. That I can tell you! As Althouse goes, so goes Wisconsin.
Does this guy read entrails?
What the...? If you are "shoring up your base" in late October you do *not* have a superior ground game.
And you just knew the hoax-y New Soviet Democratical previous economic performance numbers would continue to be revised down, quietly, months after the lying hype all on top of new dismal economic performance numbers snuck out on a Friday just before the election.
Every single time with these New Soviet Democraticals:
"JUST IN: Dismal jobs report released showing the U.S. added just 12,000 jobs in October, falling well short of economist estimates of 110,000.
46,000 manufacturing jobs were reportedly lost.
October was the worst month of job growth in nearly four years.
“The government revised August and September nonfarm payroll estimates down by 112,000, indicating weaker labor market expansion at the end of summer than previously reported,” Forbes reports."
--Colin Rugg on X
The democratic ground game is far off the pace of 2016 and even farther off the pace of the covid-scam induced increased turnout of low/no propensity democrat voters in 2020.
This current state of early voting, particularly among low/no propensity republican voters, is the best for any republican in the modern era and, frankly, will require the New Soviet Democraticals to cheat at levels even they may not have prepared for and/or cannot hide...causing the deep staters to pause and ponder the dangers of crossing that bridge.
So vote! And get your republican friends to vote to make it even harder for the marxists to try and steal this election as they did in 2020.
Harris/Walz have no chance of winning Georgia. Take it from somebody who lives down here (just over the state line in SC) ... that's simply nonsense.
I hope Trump wins, but I know the Democrats can manufacture the votes they need to win.
Trump tried to have Mike Pence overturn the election result by certifying fake electors. Thats an attempted coup. Thankfully Mike Pence had enough integrity not to do so. When Pence's integrity became apparent, Trump pivoted to delay the certification and have more states change their slates of electors, something his team knew was illegal.
Trump successfully convinced millions of Americans that the election was stolen with zero evidence. He lost every court case, many presided over by judges he himself appointed.
Ignoring the responsibility question for the capitol riot itself, do you know what Trump was doing as the protesters were inside the capitol? He was watching on TV the whole time. He watched it for hours before he called off the rioters, even as his staffers and his family begged him to call them off. What's more he spent that time calling lawmakers asking them to delay the certification. He was trying to use the chaos to create a constitutional crisis.
What is Trumps defence against all this? He doesn't deny any of it. His criminal defence is that as the president he's immune from prosecution. Very convenient that congressional republicans shielded him from impeachment beforehand, because he wasn't the president anymore. His first shield was not being the president, his second shield was being the president.
The threat to democracy is not hyperbolic. Trump has no respect for the rule of law, the constitution, or the democratic will of the American people.
Mike: you might be right. I'm just guessing here and assuming that more money means a more successful GOTV operation.
Drago: you bring up a subtle point. We base our expectations on past elections, so for this year to be a surprise, it isn't good enough for the Dem GOTV operation to be better than the Repubs', it has to be better by a larger margin than it was before.
OTOH, the voting procedures are different now, and I have the feeling the Dems have better adapted to the new rules than the Repubs.
OTOOH, Musk may be doing something magical in PA.
By judicial fiat RFK Jr was on the ballot. She voted for him as a protest vote.
[Elective] Abortion, planned parenthood, human rites, carbon sequestration, the wicked solution is a war with few survivors and diverse, forward-looking collateral damage.
LLR-democratical and Abacus Boy Rich: "Trump tried to have Mike Pence overturn the election result by certifying fake electors. Thats an attempted coup."
LOLxInfinity!
So stupid. So astonishingly stupid.
And no one but the most psycho of leftists actually believe that and you sure chose the wrong place to try and sell that. Maybe Facebook or Threads would be better suited for you?
So which is it gaslightin' Harry Sisson of Althouse blog? You actually believe that BS, or are you just funnin' us?
If Georgia goes for Harris, by golly, I'm going to have a talk with the Kleagle at the next get-together about taking a star off the flag.
Twelve is a good, even number.
These 'I got it right the last fifteen times' people are different every election year, aren't they?
Thanks Fake Poster! Sell your fake demoralization pitch down the road, cuz nobody is buying here.
Harris has already won PA. She has almost 1,000,000 mail in ballots harvested, versus less than 550,000 for the Republicans. And there are several hundred thousand more ballots unreturned still to go, with about a 2:1 ratio of Dem:Rep voters who requested them (or had them requested by ballot harvesters for the voters). Anyone thinking Trump can overcome a 400,000 vote deficit on election day is dreaming.
I suggest looking up Sean Trende's analysis of 2022-2023 voting posted on Real Clear Politics (IIRC). One thing he noted that makes vote tally vs poll comparison difficult is the number of uncontested Congressional races which in some cases will even not appear on a ballot.
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