Althouse: Systematically undercounting Trump support through the years.

September 10, 2024

Systematically undercounting Trump support through the years.

30 comments:

Leland said...: Can’t cheat without the polls supporting the cheat. And with mail in voting, you avoid the exit polls are election day so you don’t look like Maduro.; 9/10/24, 5:51 AM
Kevin said...: More conspiracy theories that happened to be true.; 9/10/24, 5:56 AM
gilbar said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 9/10/24, 6:14 AM
gilbar said...: BUT!
the question is NEVER... Is he up?
the question is ALWAYS.. Is he up PAST THE MARGIN OF FRAUD
and the answer is just about Always; NO; 9/10/24, 6:15 AM
rehajm said...: It’s time to move on…; 9/10/24, 6:19 AM
They’re eating the cats — They’re eating the dogs said...: Trump has underperformed in every election.; 9/10/24, 6:26 AM
rehajm said...: I’m skeptical I recall numbers resembling the present race around this time in the previous cycles- lots of talk about late undecideds, registered vs likely, the kind of stuff what supposedly motivates their people to start mailing in (many) ballots. Are there those old polling numbers verified by hard copy? I’m feeling manipulated…; 9/10/24, 6:29 AM
Jamie said...: Trump has underperformed in every election.

Are you sure? How would we know? Really - how would we know, given that we can't audit the kinds of elections we now routinely have and the margins have been so small?

You all seem to continue to believe we think it's all and always about Trump. But we don't. What you all cheered your side doing to our electoral process makes things worse and harder forever. Unless the goal is to have "show" elections and citizens' trust in the system is therefore unimportant, which, I don't know, maybe that actually was the goal and Trump was just a handy excuse, along the lines of never letting a crisis go to waste.; 9/10/24, 6:35 AM
Dixcus said...: How many of the vote counters have donated to Trump?

And how many of the vote counters have donated to the Democrat candidate (Biden first, or Harris?)

If you cannot answer that question, then you don't even know what the proper questions are and have no business opining on politics in the United States.; 9/10/24, 6:37 AM
mezzrow said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 9/10/24, 6:59 AM
mezzrow said...: Hey, it's a living. Right?
They'll stop doing it when it doesn't put $ in their pockets. Lots of $. Rich people with wishful thinking will spend a lot to make their dreams come true. Sometimes it even works. Nice work if you can get it, and you can get it if you try.; 9/10/24, 7:00 AM
Jersey Fled said...: As usual Rich is 100% wrong.

From the BBC 4 hours ago.

“ Polls underestimated support for Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Polling companies will be trying to fix that problem in a number of ways, including how to make their results reflect the make-up of the voting population.
Those adjustments are difficult to get right and pollsters still have to make educated guesses about other factors like who will actually turn up to vote on 5 November.”; 9/10/24, 7:05 AM
mindnumbrobot said...: Vote harvesting operations of Democrats and their "non-partisan" partners will help make up for any lack of enthusiasm for Harris. The only chance Trump has is an overwhelming victory, which will require astronomical turnout in non-urban areas in battleground states.; 9/10/24, 7:17 AM
Leland said...: Exit polls “on” election day; 9/10/24, 7:17 AM
Kai Akker said...: So Trump's standing in the polls is a little higher this year. Which makes sense, given the distaste for the current administration. The leftward push by Democrats has culminated in this particular candidate, and Republicans are fortunate that she is not much of a campaigner. It is unthinkable to me that the Republican could lose this election. Unfortunately, sometimes the unthinkable happens. But if Trump makes it alive to Nov. 5, I think a wrong is going to be righted.

The dangers to him from the bitter, hateful, power-mad Left will grow significantly, however. I hope Vance is a capable successor; he may be needed sooner rather than later.; 9/10/24, 8:01 AM
Creola Soul said...: Trump supporters seem reluctant to say they support him, particularly to pollsters. Happened in 2016 and 2020. The best quote about him is “The media takes him literally, but not seriously. His supporters take him seriously, but not literally.” Still true today.; 9/10/24, 8:08 AM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: The left need masses of illegal entrants - voting.; 9/10/24, 8:16 AM
Rusty said...: And HArris is dropping in every poll.; 9/10/24, 8:34 AM
Aggie said...: Pretty soon somebody is going to figure out how to use exit polling to highlight the level of cheating with mail-in ballots, by showing the difference between the two results.; 9/10/24, 9:02 AM
Aggie said...: "Polling companies will be trying to fix that problem in a number of ways...." Now that's funny.; 9/10/24, 9:03 AM
My name goes here. said...: I mean excuse me for stating the obvious. Unless there are significantly updated polling methodologies compared to previous years, 2016 and 2020, these 2024 numbers look amazing for Trump.

I know that the polling houses tell you the only polls that count are the ones closest to election day, it is only then that they try to use models that actually work and even only then so they can claim 4 years later that they got it "right".

I remember that the polling in 1996 had Clinton up by 8. He beat Dole by 4. Ever since then I have mentally attached a 4 point swing to the GOP in every national poll.; 9/10/24, 9:18 AM
Gravel said...: Rich, we already know you're stupid. No need to go out of your way like this to prove it.; 9/10/24, 9:39 AM
Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...: The whole point of undercutting Trump's support - is to leave room for vast amounts of Maduro-like leftist cheating.; 9/10/24, 9:45 AM
Temujin said...: If you have not yet learned to treat the polls like a Beetle Bailey cartoon, you've not been paying attention. Yes, some of you might have to look that up.; 9/10/24, 9:59 AM
Yancey Ward said...: Clinton did beat Dole by 8%.; 9/10/24, 11:25 AM
Aggie said...: I must be especially stupid this morning. I know Beetle, and Sarge, but I still don't get your joke.; 9/10/24, 12:05 PM
Lazarus said...: There are people who don't tell pollsters they are voting for Trump because they are afraid of blowback and shaming from the poll takers. Unfortunately, there are also people who do tell pollsters that they support Trump and never get around to voting or even registering. Trump haters do vote, hate being a stronger motivator than love or liking or approving.; 9/10/24, 12:26 PM
Michael K said...: "Rich" is determined to prove "The Bell Curve" every day; 9/10/24, 12:35 PM
Hassayamper said...: What kind of fool would answer questions from nosey strangers about their political opinions? Who knows when it's one of the embittered purple-haired communist spinsters who control the HR department, building a case to get you fired after they noticed you were the first employee to stop applauding at last week's mandatory DEI struggle session?; 9/10/24, 12:45 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Rich is too stupid to not keep proving he is too stupid.; 9/10/24, 1:06 PM