Writes Philip Bump, in "What happens if Kennedy endorses Trump? The independent candidate doesn’t have much support — and it’s not clear how much of it would transfer" (WaPo).
August 22, 2024
"If you are supporting Kennedy in part because you don’t like Harris or Trump, perhaps you will be compelled by Trump’s promise to include Kennedy in his Cabinet..."
"... or give him some government position where he can do whatever it is he thinks needs to be done. Or maybe you’ll just make a sound of frustration and write the whole thing off. That’s one of the challenges of being the outsider candidate: Moving to the inside isn’t necessarily what your supporters want to see. Perhaps the most important point of consideration here, again, is that there simply aren’t that many Kennedy supporters.... At the end of the day, it would still be a good move for Kennedy. How good a move it might be for Trump remains to be seen."
Writes Philip Bump, in "What happens if Kennedy endorses Trump? The independent candidate doesn’t have much support — and it’s not clear how much of it would transfer" (WaPo).
Writes Philip Bump, in "What happens if Kennedy endorses Trump? The independent candidate doesn’t have much support — and it’s not clear how much of it would transfer" (WaPo).
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He doesn't have "much" support - just enough to tip the election, if it's properly distributed.
My prediction (voted 'can't tell'): Trump will not commit to placing Junior' within his administration, but he'll dangle the carrot for the voter's sake. His best strategic position is the prospect of Junior' bringing policy wisdom and independent thinking to the table. But Junior''s actual participation might bring more problems than it solves. I think Trump will avoid making a future commitment that he doesn't need to make. Junior' will likely press for a commitment in exchange for his favored assignment. He has already signaled he's coming out, tomorrow, for 'Trump'. Has Trump given away anything, eyt, in exchange? I tend to think, 'not'.
What happens when the GOP starts pumping Cornell West? He's the spoiler that no one is talking about but how does he NOT take tons of votes from Kamala.
If I were running the GOP, I would be running Cornell West ads nonstop on black talk radio in every major democratic city.
I assume Trump has made a deal with RFKJ. He's sort of known for that. :)
HOW could it BE, a "bad" move?
Liberals who might be on the fence about Trump, could be persuaded to take another look, if RFK gets on the Trump train.
Philip Bump is the hackiest hack in Hacktown, and that’s saying something.
Yah...tough to see a legit downside...
There were two paths Kennedy closing his run could take- dropping out and endorsing no one; and dropping out and endorsing one of the major party candidates.
Bump-on-a-Log is a moron but even he understands that Kennedy dropping out and endorsing Trump helps Trump no matter the distribution of the people who might actually vote for Kennedy in November should he continue his campaign. I will wait to see if the rumors are true, though, that he is going to endorse Trump. As for making Kennedy a cabinet member- that is literally a zero cost deal for Trump to make and he would make it gladly.
Agreed.
I think Kennedy would be a fine Attorney General
Trump and RFK Jr. are not totalitarians. Today's Democrats are Orwellian totalitarians pretending to love and protect their bullshit version of "democracy." It's now just a watered down buzzword braindead liberals chant.
Democrats did everything the could to keep Trump and RFK Jr. off ballots in the name of "democracy." They oppose Voter ID and any election integrity measure so they cheat. They import votes through the southern border, and screw over inner-city minorities in the process.
Trump - Vance - Elon Musk - RFK Jr. - Tulsi Gabbard. A formidable alliance may be forming.
America is at the point we need Obi Wan Kenobi.
So Bump is too lazy or dumb to look at Kennedy drawing about 7 points in VA? Mostly from Trump? Or he does know but he's too dishonest to report it? Kind of like him walking out of that interview rather than admit the evidence Hunter was crooked (i.e. at Joe's direction) was right in front of his face.
Trump, Vance, and RFK Jr can speak at intelligently at length about current issues.
Harris and Walz can't. Neither can their supporters.
It's very difficult to accurately calculate the net effect of RFK Jr.'s move. But at least it's one more example of how fanatical the Democrats have become in fighting ANY opposition, not just outside but also within the party. RFK, Jr., Cornell West, Tulsi Gabbard, etc., etc. Wow. They're treated like "the enemy," literally. I would think that any independent would tend to see that as an indication that the far left has taken control and is actively canceling and forcing out the more moderate voices in the party.
I think RFK probably took from Trump and Biden equally, and so wasn't a major factor for either campaign, but when Harris replaced Biden, many of RFK's Democratic supporters switched so that most of his remaining support will either stay home or vote Republican. With that in mind, there is no downside to Trump courting him. And if the upside is only a couple points, that may be enough in a tight race.
I think putting him in the admin is a bad move.
Nobody who supports Trump is going to switch to Kamala or even stay home because Trump brings JFK on board. Most will be enthusiastic about it. And JFK will certainly bring some percentage of his supporters to Trump. How big a percentage depends on what they think Kennedy will be able to do in a Trump administration. Kennedy could be a tremendous asset to Trump and this is probably biggest chance he will ever get to be historically consequential.
The biggest downside risk is if Kennedy proves to be untrustworthy, but I don't think he will.
I would have added that Bump is an idiot in each of the possible answers because he is.
Philip Bump… chump or hump?
I need to relisten to the interview Bari Weiss did with RFK Jr. a couple of years ago. My recollection is that he had been anti-Trump but was starting to see beyond the media spin. He also talked about how many of the Democrats in Congress were in the pocket of pharmaceutical companies.
Up until that interview, my only opinion of RFK Jr. was that he was an anti-vaccine nutcase. Listening to him helped me see beyond the media spin. I still didn't agree with him on a lot of things, but he seemed more rational and thoughtful than the media presentation of him had portrayed.
You have to look at it from the POV of a Regime Apparatchik.
This just increases the chances they try harder to kill Trump as this moves forward.
I think he has been outspoken on some issues, I don't know who has been handling his campaign she might as well be steve schmidt
What does Cheryl think?
It's better for Trump to have RFK inside the tent pissing out, than outside the tent pissing in.
Kennedy was a nothing candidate, supported by Dems and the media. He brings nothing and nobody to the Trump campaign. It would be like Trump asking Romney to take a cabinet position, a nothingburger with a side of no fries and a tepid cup of tap water.
Charlie Kirk, who is hosting Trump (and Kennedy?) tomorrow in Phoenix just proposed RFK Jr. for "Chief Declassification Officer" where Trump appoints him to be in charge of what gets declassified. COVID files? JFK? Russiagate? UFO? If Trump can make peace and have on his team classical liberal Democrats like RFK and Tulsi and even Shanahan (who spilled the beans about tomorrow), then what does that say about all the wild-eyed Leftists in Chicago calling Trump "extreme"?
Who's really extreme if these liberal Democrats can make peace with Trump but the idiots in charge now can't? (And Trump releasing the handwritten note from Oprah today was priceless. Trump's on a roll.)
What evidence is there that "adults are in charge" or even in the room?
No that’s wrong. Dems didn’t support RFK. He tried to make the same deal with the Harris campaign on August 15th, they sent him packing. That’s why he went running to Trump. Dems rejected him.
“Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. sought a meeting last week with Democratic nominee Kamala Harris to discuss the possibility of serving in her administration, perhaps as a Cabinet secretary, if he throws his support behind her campaign and she wins, according to Kennedy campaign officials. Harris and her advisers have not responded with an offer to meet or shown interest in the proposal, say people familiar with the conversations.”
WaPo- August 15
Yes some polls show 46% of RFK voters have Trump as second choice, about 25% have Harris. In VA that would mean about 3.5% shift to Trump.
I forgot about former Democrat liberal voter Musk. Yet another data point for our side being more sane.
Good point.
Cook Report is saying that 46% of Kenendy's supporters in swing states are Trump leaners, 26% for Kamala. Small swing could benefit. OTOH any analysis by Bumptious is suspect. Is he still denying the validity of Hunter's laptop?
It's pure speculation whether Trump has made some deal with RFK Jr. or not.
If RFK Jr. does drop out and endorses Trump, he might do this just to spite the Democrats who have pulled dirty trick after dirty trick on him. It would be more of a statement about not supporting Harris and the Democrats because they crossed the line and acted unethically.
Can someone please show me an RFK Jr. voter who is now switching to Kamala even though she was always Biden's VP and acknowledged heir when we all know he wasn't going to make it to 2028?
Inga said…[RFK] tried to make the same deal with the Harris campaign on August 15th, they sent him packing … say people familiar with the conversations.”
There's no reason to believe these people who are "familiar with the conversations". They probably don't even exist.
Given the fact that RFK Jr. has made it clear that he doesn't like Harris and the Democratic leadership, I suspect that the Democrats passed disinformation on to the Washington Post and they gladly printed it because they were being told what they wanted to hear. Probably just another one of the many dirty tricks that the Democrats have pulled on RFK Jr.
The value to Trump is probably not so much in the idea that RFK would be a part of a second Trump administration, but it the argument RFK would make for Trump in endorsing him. Specifically, I would imagine he'll make it clear that he's not supporting Trump because he necessarily agrees with him politically, but rather because Kamala and the people controlling her represent a dangerous threat to our fundamental freedoms, especially freedom of speech and participation. I think that message, coming from him, would resonate with many people who don't agree with RFK politically and don't want him as president.
RFK Jr. just has to make the same argument that the RINO David French weenies are constantly making about Trump: "I don't agree with Trump about everything, but Kamala represents a thuggish group of Democracy haters blah blah blah".
Think about it. With the race being so tight, it would have made total sense for the Harris campaign to try and get RFK Jr. on board. So I'm skeptical that they would refuse to even meet with him to talk about it. (Because that would make RFK Jr. more prone to support Trump. Did I mention that it's a razor close election?)
Axios has something on this:
https://www.axios.com/2024/08/15/rfk-jr-kamala-harris-cabinet-endorsement
I don't know whether it would help or hurt Trump, but if Kennedy does endorse Trump, you can expect the Dems to fold it into their "they're all weird" campaign strategy.
“Stefanie Spear, a spokesperson for the Kennedy campaign, told CBS News in a statement Wednesday that "Mr. Kennedy is willing to meet with leaders of both parties to discuss the possibility of a unity government."
CBS -August 15th.
Yes. But the GOP is kinda dumb.
"No one has any intention of negotiating with a MAGA-funded fringe candidate who has sought out a job with Donald Trump in exchange for an endorsement," DNC spokesperson Matt Corridoni said Wednesday in a statement to CNN.“
You left out "Phillip Bump should be defenestrated, not quoted."
I'm a sucker for the schadenfreude. All the DNC had to do was legitimately run Biden in the primaries rather than manipulating the states. So much of this clusterage would've been solved, including Bobby's discontent. Hell, yeah, I hope Trump adds Junior' to his Cabinet. Weird is way better than lockstep conformity.
As we see here.
I've read his book about Fauci.
I don't think we've seen the last attempt.
The dullard believes the DNC flack's word.
“Kennedy reportedly sought a discussion through intermediaries about endorsing Harris in exchange for a role in the administration, but Harris and her advisers did not offer a meeting time or express interest, the Washington Post wrote.
”I think it is a strategic mistake for them. That's my perspective," Kennedy said in a Wednesday interview with the Post. "I think they ought to be looking at every opportunity. I think it is going to be a very close race."
Axios-August 15th
Listening to a local radio talking head at the DNC Convention this morning. She was struck at how buttoned down the Dem Convention was in contrast to the Republican Convention she also covered. Even the delegates wearing Kaffeyahs weren't willing to criticize Kamala over Hamas. RFK, Jr., and Joe Manchin have learned that there is no room for dissent in today's Democrat Party. Trump is likely saving RFK's life by offering him a way out of the race: without Secret Service protection (such as it is) I wouldn't bet a dollar on his surviving a close race.
You going to stick with that lie as long as you did with Russian hoax Inga?
"Kennedy had apparently reached out to both Harris and Trump about the possibility of working in their administrations, but Shanahan refuted this report: “Definitely not in talks with Harris,” she said, “definitely have never brought up a cabinet position with Harris.” She added: “fake news.” "
I thought it was illegal to promise someone a government job before you're elected.
I’m thinking the same. His father is praised for the role. Whoever is put in that role by Trump is going to have insubordination within the Department, so you need someone strong enough to fight it. If Trump proposes some other fighter, they'll be blasted as too right wing for the job and face that much more insubordination. If Trump proposes a beltway insider, then we will have another Sessions or Barr that didn’t weed out the DoJ. RFK Jr. could backfire too, but Trump can fire him. The question is whether RFK Jr. is legit or was always a set up to either siphon votes from Trump as a spoiler, or now be a Trojan Horse? If either is the case, Trump ought be careful.
Including myself, I think many people were anti-Trump and have come around. If not in 2016, then they witnessed his Presidency and found it, at a minimum, better than Biden. Still others have probably gravitated to Trump after watching the insidious behavior of our judicial system against Trump and his supporters. I didn’t vote for Trump in the primary of 2016 or this year, but I think he’ll be a fine President as he was the first go.
Do you mean like offering Chelsea an ambassador position for her parents support?
Liars lie.
"Kennedy had apparently reached out to both Harris and Trump about the possibility of working in their administrations, but Shanahan refuted this report: “Definitely not in talks with Harris,” she said, “definitely have never brought up a cabinet position with Harris.” She added: “fake news.” "
"You going to stick with that lie as long as you did with Russian hoax Inga?"
Inga has acknowledged that Russia! Russia! Russia! was a democrat initiated, media promulgated hoax? I seriously doubt it.
"It's pure speculation" until tomorrow at 2 p.m. EDT. I find the colocation of the two campaigns tomorrow pretty interesting at this point.
If polling is correct (a big "if") and RFK JR. takes away more votes from Trump than Harris, just dropping out helps Trump. I have my doubts about the value of an outright endorsement.
Bump, according to Scott Adams, is the primary CIA asset on WaPo, and he’s responsible for Adams’ cancellation, beginning with the cancellation of Dilbert on WaPo. Bump probably knew in advance about the assassination attempt on Trump.
RFKJr can be Secretary of Transportation.
And why should Shanahan be believed? She has motive to lie, it looks awful for RFK that he tried to make the same deal with Democrats and they said NO thanks on August 15th.
Why should WaPo be believed? They have lied to us repeatedly, always in service to the democrats.
Update: Comrade Inga has declared Nicole Shanahan (formerly known as a liberal Democrat) to be a nonperson.
I hope she is not flying soon because she will get the "SSSS" notation on her boarding pass just like another non-person Tulsi Gabbard.
For a significant number of voters, this is a "Not" election -- they'll vote for Trump because he's NOT Kamala, or they'll vote for Kamala because she's NOT Trump.
A small number of them might be inclined to vote for RFKJr as NOT either of them.
If this is a REALLY close election, shifting some RFKJr votes to Trump in the right States could make a difference. BUT if Trump "makes a deal" with RFKJr that could hurt him.
My advice to DJT (that's really funny! -- "MY advice to DJT"): Welcome him aboard, but make no public commitment. Behind the scenes offer him something you could live with for (say) a year.
Our hostess once said that she was learning towards voting RFKjr. I wonder what impact his endorsement of Trump would have on her.
Agreed
Disagree. I want to see him in charge of the FDA, and now we can do real research on the risks that accompany the scores of vaccines my grandchildren are being injected with.
The days of anyone believing anything the WashPo reports on without direct attribution to a named party or parties are over ---except if you are a fool.
It would be more powerful if it wasn't transactional.
Exactly. The moonbattery wing is equally distributed between 11 and one on the clockface graph of political persuasion, and they're also not always wrong.
I love the idea of Kennedy as Chief Declassification Officer.
Most things in government are transactional.
Taking on the complex burden of JFK Jr. is maybe a bit less transactional. Cheryl Hines and roadkill and other stuff.
Sadly, I think you're right.
Somewhere the people on Epsteins client list are trying to convince someone from the FBI or SS to take one for the team. The next one will be an obvious inside job.
Let's take that thought(sic) one step further, Inga. Why should anyone here believe you? You have every incentive to lie. Nothing you say can be taken at face value.
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