If Biden dropped out at any point before the Democratic convention, it is virtually certain there would be a contested battle for the nomination.... and not even a Biden endorsement of Kamala Harris would change that.... Maybe things might be different if Harris were universally beloved in the party and had an unequivocal edge on Donald Trump in the polls....
If Biden announced on the Monday after Thanksgiving that he would be retiring, it would give 2024 presidential contenders fewer than 100 days to declare their candidacies and define their image before 14 states pick delegates on Super Tuesday, March 5.... Even a globe-trotting governor like Newsom... would be ill prepared for the full range of queries that would be immediately hurled at him as a presidential candidate....
[A] replacement candidate forced to plunge into the middle of a campaign without a rehearsal period may appear to the voters as a more flawed option than Biden does today. By my reckoning, Biden made a heedless mistake by not bowing out of the 2024 presidential race last spring, knowing that his age would be a political liability.... And at this point, Biden—despite his obvious flaws as a candidate—is probably the Democrats’ best option for president against Trump....
Shapiro makes a lot of points but there's one he won't even consider: Trump defeated Biden. Everything was thrown at Trump, and he's still on top, stronger than ever. Trump was supposed to defeat himself, leaving Biden free to continue walking — stumbling — forward in the Presidency that was already his. But it turned out Biden needed to fight for reelection.
If the real point here is Trump's outstanding — and mystifying! — strength, then Biden's stepping out of the way won't help. It's not just that "a replacement candidate [is] forced to plunge into the middle of a campaign without a rehearsal" — it's that a replacement candidate is forced to go up — suddenly and without preparation — against Trump.
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Which is why they will pull the big switcheroo at the DNC convention, where all the delegates will be assembled and Joe can assign them to whoever survives the smoke-filled room to emerge as the emergency nominee. Didn’t he just bless Gavin during his brief visit of obeisance in California? The convention is their only opportunity to bypass Kamala without the messy public fallout. The nominee will emerge with a campaign already in motion and the advertising will be ready to go along with the talking points (“gotta prevent Trump part two!”) that every Democrat and newsreader will parrot faithfully every day until election month.
Guaranteed.
It won’t be contested.
It will be Gavin.
Maybe things might be different if Harris were universally beloved in the party and had an unequivocal edge on Donald Trump in the polls
unequivocal edge = outside the margin of fraud
…they maybe have some concern it will be tougher to cook this one but Biden is their candidate so some propaganda to keep the Democrats in line. Threats will be next…
Biden, Harris, Newsome, Warren... Christie, Pence, Haley.
They're all from the same corrupt school of fish. It's Trump and more than half the country, against everyone else.
This is the last chance to reconcile and right the fraudulent 2020 election. It is the last chance to push back against forever war Neo-Cons. It is clear J6 was a manipulated uniParty / deep state set up, and the United States now holds political prisoners.
If you want them to get away with ALL of it. Don't vote for Trump.
The name of the Democrat Party is ironic. There's nothing democratic about the party. They shuffled the early primaries/caucuses to benefit the old fogey currently residing in the White House. Then they said no delegates would be awarded for Iowa and New Hampshire, screwing RFK, Jr.
The hallmark of democracy is honest elections, elections whose results people believe. But, Democrat run states won't keep the voter rolls current. They have to be sued to remove obsolete voters, then the unDems cry about voter suppression of those ineligible voters. They monkey with the voting machinery - In King County, the county auditor changed the servers during the balloting period without having observers there and the cameras were somehow nonfunctional. During the 2020 election, they kicked out observers in Fulton (Atlanta), Wayne (Detroit), Dane (?, Madison), and Philadelphia (?, Philadelphia) counties and then continued counting.
A scramble for a candidate is exactly what the unDems need. I have popcorn kernels and an air fryer. It should be entertaining.
“Trump defeated Biden”
Ah, thinking about the future in the past tense. Who again is suffering from hubris?
The husk-puppet is drooping... Long live the husk puppet.
He can't even read off the cards he is given. So what? Long live Crook Husk puppet.
Open borders forever, man.
Of course the Soviet Democrats don't want to have primaries.
They prefer selections over elections.
Disingenuous. The real reason they don't want a Dem primary now is 2028. They don't want any candidate damaged before the next election. They know this one is already lost.
If Biden drops out it will be a silent admission to the suspicion that Trump’s legal troubles were in fact a political persecution.
Maybe things might be different if Harris were universally beloved
(laugh). I think you mean to write "Maybe things might be different if Harris were a good candidate".
"It will be Gavin."
You can't just do that to Kamala. There would be hell to pay, and Gavin's not having what it takes will be truly embarrassing.
Gavin is like DeSantis. A big state governor who is assumed to be presidential material who will leave people cold when he tries to take advantage of the assumption.
"Ah, thinking about the future in the past tense...."
That's what Shapiro is doing. I'm only identifying what I think is a good point that he missed.
"Trump defeated Biden"
Trump did defeat Biden in 2020. That's a reality many still find helpfule to ignore. But it is the crux of all current matters. It's why they are trying to throw Trump in jail and destroy his businesses.
Perhaps, without COVID, absentee ballot fraud is harder to pull off in 2024.
Remember November 2019, pre-COVID? It's November 2023.
Some big shit bomb is going to drop this spring.
No primaries, no debates... on the left - they pick the Xi, and they obey.
The "BEST" way out of our political mess would be if a moderate majority implements a post-Nazi-Germany style of firm centrism. The Germans stopped listening to the hard left and hard right entirely, and kept them under their thumbs until the 1990s or so. The WW2 National Socialists perversely combined all sorts of left and right fringe ideas in a blender. So, our undesirable alternative would be a similar perverse merger between the incoherent statist Woke left and statist so-called "conservatives" who suckle from the government teat from cradle to grave. So far #2 seems to be winning in the USA.
Is most of the darkness behind us or yet to come?
Mike of Sno-q -
Exactly.
In CO - our corrupt Secretary of State - Jenna Griswold(D) - refuses to clean up the voter roles.
She was sued... and in response she is going after ordinary election canvassers, doing all she can to make citizen supervision of elections - illegal.
The left know what they are doing - it's total corruption. (Also why they are inserting rank choice voting where-ever they can. A scheme to dilute and manipulate the vote in their corrupt favor)
Strange how Gavin is going hard after DeSantis.
Of the two - DeSantis delivers what the normals want. Newsum only delivers pain and suffering.
“There would be hell to pay”
When it comes to acquiring power, Dems fall in line. It’s what they do. They will name an ultra radical black LGBTQ woman as Gavin’s VP to smooth things over.
Last night Vivek said he was going to win Iowa and win the nomination. But if Trump offered him VP, I think he would take it. Vivek would be the guy who would execute the mechanics of America First.
Twelve years of Vivek in DC would be amazing. He's only 38 now.
I'm not so sure there would be hell to pay if they cast Kamala aside. I assumed that's already been done. Democrats know she's a fool.
I do agree Newsome is like DeSantis. But Newsome will have the entire media and deep state apparatus on his side. DeSantis wouldn't. Trump wont.
But Newsome is a pretty boy. Empty headed and arrogant. Perfect installed candidate. Only problem is, "who the fuck wants to be California"? Kamala is CA. Nancy Pelosi. Adam Schiff.
If the vote is clean, Trump will win. The only question for 2024 is can they pull off the 2020 fraud again.
In 2020 the Dems anointed Biden and the other primary election candidates went along with it without objection.
Shapiro's claim that a replacement chosen for Biden wouldn't be prepared assumes the replacement doesn't know anymore about what Biden will do than the rest of us. That almost certainly would not be the case.
Kamala knows the score. She will do what she is told just like Warren and Buttigieg and Sanders did. They'll give her something if she plays ball and they'll dump her on the curb if she doesn't.
Does one trip to China make Newsome a globe-trotter? A cynic would say it seems like the Dems wanted Newsome to meet the boss.
You absolutely can just do that to Kamala. She will take any instructions from the masters and make any speech necessary to smooth over whatever public outcry there may be.
The Dems rigged the primaries in 2020 to make Biden the nominee. All the candidates except Bernie and Liz Warren illogically dropped out before the SC primary and endorsed Biden. This was done was to eliminate the debate amongst the contenders of unpopular Dem positions on issues such as immigration and defund police. Also, to nominate the perceived least liberal nominee. This election they will again avoid being forced to take unpopular positions and anoint Newsome in 2024 similar to the way they anointed Biden in 2020.This will be done after primaries are done. What to do with Kamala? Maybe appointment as SCOTUS Justice.
"It won’t be contested.
It will be Gavin."
You can't throw over a black woman (Kamala) for an arrogant, coddled frat bro.
Blacks would stay home.
It's Michelle Obama or they don't have a chance.
Why not be in the White House instead of pulling the strings from whatever mansion they're living in?
If Brandon drops out just before the convention, the convention will name the candidate.
If they select the candidate at the convention, won't that be even worse than announcing now? I get the point about not being able to prepare for the primaries if Brandon drops out now.
But if Newsom is nominated in August, he has even less time to present himself and prepare for November.
Most people know nothing about him other than that he is guv of california. Most people have a poor opinion of California and will think Newsom=California, California=Newsom. How will he overcome that in 2-1/2 months?
Then you will have a whole bunch of people pissed off that they didn't get a voice in primaries. Might they just sit home?
And a lot of blacks who are pissed off that it is not the (sort of) black VP. Isn't the VP the logical successor? That's bullshit but lots and lots of people believe it. (Even some otherwise smart people here). It will be easy to spin as racism, too. What happens to these pissed off people?
It's a delightful pickle and I relish the thought of next year. And a Trump victory.
John Henry
MJB,
Seems to me that bypassing Kamala at the convention would cause more, not less fallout.
If she loses in primaries, she can always say "The voters have spoken, the stupid bastards."
If she is not annointed at the convention the whole "The VP is the logical successor to the president"(tm) bullshit comes into play.
Then we will get 2-1/2 months of hearing how the Demmies are sexist and racist. This will drown out the message from the chosen candidate.
John Henry
In today's post-modern truth, the term "real reason" is highly suspect.
#JustSaying.
There won't be "hell to pay" if they dump Kamala. If she had a large, loyal following among dems, they wouldn't be talking about dumping her. They wouldn't HAVE to dump her, because it would mean she was actually doing something to elevate the standing of this administration among American voters, instead of serving as yet another reason fto vote Republican.
If they shunt her aside, there will be perhaps a week's worth of hand-wringing op-eds about what it supposedly signifies in terms of women of color actually being able to rise to power and stay there -- blah, blah, blah. They'll write those columns because of course they will, but nobody honestly believes Kamala's problems have anything to do with her being a woman or a POC. She's just a bad politician. She's not smart, she's not inspiring, she hasn't accomplished anything, she obviously can't attract and retain talented people to work for her, she's such a phony that even her old man publicly called her out on it, and she hasn't truly earned or lived up to any of the lofty positions that have been handed to her. Believe me, if the dems do decide to dump her, most of the party will at least quietly think, "Good -- at least she's out of the way, finally."
What Gusty Winds said @ 8:08 AM
Trump will be ahead in the polls by 1-2 points then lose to crook Biden.
Enjoy everyone.
Watch the California Pretty Boy Governor wipe the floor with Sean Hannity. Most of the time he's providing facts that Biden is kicking ass and taking names getting his agenda passed. He's not running because he's behind Joe all the way. He's looking forward to 2028.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s5HqxV0KqgU&t=628s&pp=ygUkZ2F2aW4gbmV3c29tIHNlYW4gaGFubml0eSBpbnRlcnZpZXcg
They’ll pick Michelle at the Convention. Maximum excitement. They’ll promise Kamala a Supreme Court slot.
Perhaps, without COVID, absentee ballot fraud is harder to pull off in 2024.
Most of the new voting rules are still in place in the swing states. The polling is just a guide to the Dems to gauge the amount of fraud they'll need.
You can't just do that to Kamala. There would be hell to pay, and Gavin's not having what it takes will be truly embarrassing.
I suspect she'd be persuaded (with some kind of quid pro quo) to gracefully step aside and endorse Gavin in that scenario. But I agree Gavin isn't ready for prime time, and if he's just shoehorned in by the Dems without having been through a campaign he'll be even less ready.
This may seem unrelated, but it isn’t. Rep. Dan Goldman called for Trump to be “eliminated.” See Scott Adams on X. Adams calls this an assassination threat, and I agree. What does this mean?
Confirmation of the rigging of the 2020 election is coming out. They’re getting desperate. Their new stance will be that Trump was so “literally Hitler” that the election had to be rigged because he would have won.
Begley - Unlike Trump - Vivek knows how to speak properly. In full adult sentences. Trump could do worse.
There is a matter that what is best for the Democratic Party, what is best for the individuals involved, and what is best for the country are conflicting. Biden has, for his entire life, wanted to be President, despite having zero acumen for the post, and even his compromised state will not want to give it up. (He also wants to continue to protect his drug addict, influence peddling son. Not to mention his wife does not want to give it up either.) The Obama holdovers want to continue to run things, and they are not interested in a replacement candidate that they cannot control. Someone like Kamala would good for that purpose, given she is an empty suit, but she's so unpopular that there is the matter that she would have to win an election, something she has only shown minimal competence in doing. Newsom may have his own ideas and not be beholden to Blinken, etc.
Do keep in mind that what is best for the country does not factor into any of this, given that all the main parties to this have been supporting the ongoing disaster and would not want that to change. There is not much of an indication that Newsom would object to any of it either, given he is doing his best to run California into the ground.
Does is matter who they run? Chicken littles, baby killers and cheaters will tip the scales for the Dems.
Open borders, the economy, crime? Meh!
The question is, what's a bigger mess? Four more years of Joe Biden or four years of Gavin Newsom or four years of Trump? (for those of you who have not been to San Francisco in a few years, you'll be surprised to know that Joe Biden is the lesser of the incompetents on the Dem side.)
Me, personally, I'd prefer four years of DeSantis. But then, I've lived in a state that works.
For those who have compared DeSantis to Newsom, you could not be more wrong. The only thing they have in common is the people who have left CA to move to FL. Newsom is charming, smily, and has all the right rich friends. And he's destroyed the Golden State. DeSantis is not charming. He's a task oriented person who sees a job, no matter how hard it is or how the 'media' will take it, and he gets it done. Quickly, decisively, and with success.
After the Biden years, I'd prefer competence over anything.
The Democrats play for keeps, as Jeffery Epstein and Seth Rich discovered too late. I think we will discover one morning that Joe Biden passed away peacefully in his sleep. Ignore the obvious injection site on his arm. The press will be full of stories about how he worked himself to death on behalf of the American people, and then we’ll be treated to the lying in state and big funeral, all calculated to make people remember his failed presidency as being somehow successful (and also to bash Donald Trump).
Yeah, I’m cynical. I lived in or around Washington, DC, for almost half a century. I know what its denizens are like. Remember, you read it here first.
God forbid there should be a "contested" election. That...would be the DEATH OF DEMOCRACY!
Gavin and Kamala have a complicated history. His first wife, now dating Trump's son, worked under Kamala in the SFDA's office and has a contentious relationship with her and probably knows about more skeletons in Kamala's closet. Undisputed kingmaker Willie Brown personally installed both Gavin and Kamala in their first big elections.
I don't know how any of this will play out, but it's going to be quite a soap opera.
Biden will pardon Hunter and will drop out at the convention with the assurance that he will not be prosecuted for his years of bribe taking. Gavin, thanks to his still powerful auntie Nancy, will be the nominee. A seat on the Supreme Court will mollify Kamala and her supporters and no I haven't been smokin' anything. :)
He won't drop out. He'll just hand the baton to Gavin and collapse.
I’m having a hard time understanding why people believe it may be some one other than Joe Biden.
If it's messy--whose fault is that? The Democrats have been propping up a Potemkin President for three years now. The party cupboard is bare. I won't weep for their problems, although I might weep for my country after whatever they come up with is foisted on us in 2025.
I used to marvel at the PRI in Mexico. The party of the permanent revolution somehow managed to select every Mexican President for 85 years or more. Each President served a single 6 year term--and somewhere near the end of a President's term the PRI selected the next President.
With efficient, not to say dirty, work at the Mexican polls somehow the PRI nominee won every election--for 8 decades. The opposing party PAN was no more effective than the Washington Generals as they faced the Harlem Globetrotters. PAN just couldn't win.
I think the modern Democrat party is looking south towards Mexico and saying, "We could do that". Maybe not with Slow Joe next time around, but it doesn't really matter which puppet is shoved into office--so long as it is a Democrat.
William 50: I've thought that too, but will Kamala willingly step down with the promise of a future SC seat IF the Democrats don't lose? Do they hold the power to pack her onto the court, as nobody seems to be dying there soon? Would it even be wise for them to expend this power on Kamala, being as unpopular as she is?
If I were Harris, I wouldn't accept that deal. Too many uncertainties. And who replaces her for VP?
Dave Begley said, "It won’t be contested."
And really how could it be when the DNC won't allow any other Democrats on the ballot? Which is their way of upholding "democracy" by not allowing democratic voters to choose. Something rather "democracy dying in darkness" about dark Brandon not allowing voters to have a meaningful choice. But hey every Democrat on TV except Maher and Axe agrees with Joe's strategy. So there's that. It's one of those other things they love: a consensus.
There's this version of "dropping out" that you can't prevent him from doing and that's "dropping dead".
I've had two friends die recently from age complications. Biden looks and acts a lot they did.
Ann Althouse:
"It will be Gavin."
You can't just do that to Kamala.
You certainly can, it's just a matter of consequences. The kneeler isn't very well liked at all.
Heatshield said...
They’ll pick Michelle at the Convention. Maximum excitement. They’ll promise Kamala a Supreme Court slot.
Yep - it will be a coronation of Queen Michelle. Pulled out of "retirement" to serve the people because that's her carefully crafted persona. She lives to serve and she will reluctantly agree to do it for "just one term" in order to "save democracy." Newsome as VP so that he can run in 4 years.
There is no doubt in my mind that this is the back-up plan in the minds of many Dem pols - and Harris and Newsom know it.
Obama and his acolytes are running everything right now with a figurehead President - nothing will change under Michelle.
The only positive is that President Wife was supposed to be Hillary's gig - karma is a bitch Hillary.
Like her relationship with Brown, Kamala will suck dick and swallow what ever is placed before her.
Howard.
Have you been to California?
I used to enjoy Venice Beach, but now you have to walk around the human feces. The same reason you don't walk around downtown LA. That and you'll get mugged. I felt safer in Compton.
Plus, his entire family will get thrown in prison.
John Henry:
Seems to me that bypassing Kamala at the convention would cause more, not less fallout.
Why? If it is a sudden "Joe steps aside for the good of America. Oh look a shiny new nominee!" then the DNC-Media Complex just goes into anti-Trump pro-Whomever overdrive...again. They will have polls showing how unbelievably popular their sudden choice is. They probably have them already.
Second option: what if Kamala ENDORSES the Replacements? What if it is a package deal with Gavin-Michelle? We've already set a precedent with a Black Woman figurehead VP who does nothing and gets praise for it, and NO ONE in the media will criticize Obama's wife. They never have.
If she loses in primaries, she can always say "The voters have spoken, the stupid bastards."
Except there is zero possibility of her actually running in a primary against Joe. If Joe drops dead Kamala will pull less than the <1% she was pulling last time, given her crappy record.
If she is not anointed at the convention the whole "The VP is the logical successor to the president"(tm) bullshit comes into play.
VPs have rarely succeeded to the Presidency. What, twice in 240 years? "Logical successor" is itself a bullshit term, unproven in the real world. "Succession" only works in death so they will keep Joe's body animated as long as they need to and no longer.
Then we will get 2-1/2 months of hearing how the Demmies are sexist and racist. This will drown out the message from the chosen candidate.
Again the DNC-Media complex will fall in line and parrot whatever they are told to say, just like they treat Joe with kid-gloves now and avoid any direct criticism of Kamala. Instead it's "She's retooling her message" bullshit.
Biden will lose the NH primary. Why? He didn't even sign up for it.
How is the Fake News going to spin his loss to a backbencher from MN, Dean Phillips?
He'll probably lose in Iowa too.
As someone who has been vocal here going back to 2020 or earlier about Biden being too old for the office, I think one big problem has been the surprising (to me) failure of all the GOP challengers to Trump. The contrast to a vigorous politician in their forties or fifties (not you, Vivek) would have been intolerable, but a rematch with the guy beaten last time might have seemed more like 1956 all over. (And Ike had a heart attack.) I still prefer withdrawal post early primary debacle, followed by a real primary contest like 1968.
Biden can't drop out. Biden was elected by fraud.
.......and he's profoundly stupid.
serious question: will Joe Biden be ALIVE next november?
serious followup questions:
Will Joe Biden be More (or LESS) mentally competent next november?
Is Joe Biden mentally competent NOW?
IF over 70% think Joe Biden is too old to be President NOW, what will those 70% think next november?
Assuming that Joe continues to "campaign", and doesn't die..
When he has 81 Million votes counted.. WHAT will those 70% of people that didn't vote for him think?
FINALLY.. just How OBVIOUS, does vote fraud have to be for people to realize it?
Gusty Winds said...
Biden, Harris, Newsome, Warren... Christie, Pence, Haley.
They're all from the same corrupt school of fish. It's Trump and more than half the country, against everyone else.
This is the last chance to reconcile and right the fraudulent 2020 election. It is the last chance to push back against forever war Neo-Cons. It is clear J6 was a manipulated uniParty / deep state set up, and the United States now holds political prisoners.
1: you missed DeSantis
2: The reality is that Trump is a loser. He got beat by the Deep State teh entire time he was President. He's spent post 2020 getting his candidates, his proxies, beat in general elections in places where they would have won if current Trump was even as good as 2020 Trump, let alone 2016 Trump.
Trump is a spent force. If you want to win, against teh Democrats and against the GOP Establishment, you need DeSantis.
Because DeSantis actually builds a team that will carry out his policies, and fires the people who don't. As well as getting out and winning, both himself and down ticket.
That is what we want, and need
Ann Althouse said...
"It will be Gavin."
You can't just do that to Kamala. There would be hell to pay, and Gavin's not having what it takes will be truly embarrassing.
Yes, they can. Although the Michelle camp will push for her on the grounds that you can replace a black woman with another black woman, but not with a white man
Gavin is like DeSantis. A big state governor who is assumed to be presidential material who will leave people cold when he tries to take advantage of the assumption.
That's quite the claim re DeSantis.
The Iowa caucuses are less than 60 days away, so we shall soon see if your claim is based in reality
This alleged time factor is ridiculous. Wendell Willkie announced his candidacy for the Republican nomination well into 1940, and won at the convention on 24 June. In 1968, Hubert Humphrey waited till after Lyndon Johnson withdrew to enter the race on 27 April (the convention was on 28 August, but the primaries ended on 4 June).
It should not require years or even more than a few months to conduct an election.
Enigma said...
The "BEST" way out of our political mess would be if a moderate majority implements a post-Nazi-Germany style of firm centrism.
And what would be in that "firm centrism"?
Would abortion be banned post 15 weeks? or never?
Can 13 year olds get abortions without parental consent, or no?
Can 10 year olds be put on puberty blockers if they do anything not stereotypically male, or no?
Are kindergarten "teachers" allowed to discuss their sex lives with their students, or no?
Do males get to compete in girls / women's sports, or no? How about use girls / women's bathrooms and locker rooms?
Is "free speech" a defense for saying "trans women are men"? How about for saying "killing all the Jews in Israel is decolonization, and therefore good"?
Do please tell us what "firm centrism" calls for. I just can't wait!
It won't be Michelle. She hates politics. She likes being a celebrity hanging out with Oprah. She's not a true believer like Obama. She comes from a pretty ordinary, middle-class Chicago family. She might become a tv daytime host or something.
Gavin in charge of American and Justin in charge of Canada. They can start a boy band.
I like DeSantis. Maybe he should grow a beard like Ted Cruz did.
Assuming, for the sake of argument..
IF Gavin is Annointed.. WHO would be his VP?
COULDN'T BE Harris.. Could it?
Would she be willing to pretend that her legal residence is NOT California?
WHERE would she pretend that it Was? DC?
The world has changed. It's not 1968 anymore. But a lot of Democrats are pointing at 1968 and worrying that the same thing might happen again.
Here's why that is not the case:
If Biden dropped out, Newsome would throw his hat in the ring and probably get the nomination. If Biden endorsed the new Democratic nominee, then they would get all of the positives and none of the negatives of that endorsement.
President Johnson recused himself from being the Democratic nominee for President in 1968. (Because the Viet Nam war was so unpopular and he was the guy who had really advanced that war.) Hubert Humphrey got 2.2% of the Democratic primary vote. Eugene McCarthy got 38.7 of the primary votes and RFK got 30.06% of the primary vote. But the Democratic party bosses gave the nomination to Humphrey. For a party that called itself "Democratic," that was not a very democratic thing to do.
Plus, George Wallace was a potential spoiler in the Presidential election, but he didn't end up getting enough votes to change the outcome. If all Wallace's votes had gone to Humphrey, he still would not have won.
I think there's a good chance it'll be Gavin too. Kamala simply has nothing to offer when the offer isn't made on her knees, sorry, not sorry - it's been obvious since Day 1 of her first gratis appointment in California. She's not only not loved, she's not even liked. And now, after 4 years of aimless, shuffling dementia, Crazy Uncle Joe is in the same boat - not even liked, anymore - at least not publicly. He's left too much of a Trail of Disgraceful Conduct to ignore anymore.
And if you think the Democrats won't pull stunts at their own convention, well.... guess again, and this time think of Bernie. Poor old Bernie, who not only got shafted with the delegates but had to climb up on the stage and eat a great big sh*t sandwich in front of the American public, or else Hillary would have seen to it that he was going to lose everything.
So my guess is, they'll take a page from the Trump playbook and gin up the excitement on the convention floor, just like Wrestlemania. And here will come Gavin, hair freshly greased, chin up, looking lean and in a perfect suit, striding confidently down the aisle and flashing those pearlies. If there's no actual showdown with Joe, it'll be purely self-preservational for the party. The attention will shift so fast it'll make ya dizzy, which the Democrat leadership hope will be misinterpreted as excitement.
Kamala won't get offered a seat on the Supreme Court. It would be laughed out of the Congressional hearings.
You people who think Trump will win are funny.
(Hey, I liked him, too, but no, he's not going to win.)
Newsome is already campaigning. Democratic voters don't need to know much about candidates.
And here's the real key: Trump.
Trump will push Dem motivation to vote to the stratosphere. Ads will run about J6 for months. You will want to puke.
Trump will not have any money left after paying all his lawyers. So no ads for him.
He may even be convicted of one of his 91 felony charges.
(Gee, Democrats really made sure this time, huh?)
You better hope GOP can take the Senate and hold the House, but I have doubts.
Should be an easy election for the GOP but probably won't be.
Biden is the Ruth Bader Ginsburg of the 2024 election cycle.
Newsom will be able to run in 2028 without the controversy and baggage that would come from some sort of brokered selection in 2024. He would be crazy to jump in upon removal of Biden.
I get why people think Michele will helicopter in, but I’m skeptical that that’s a good opponent against Trump, given the issues people care about the most: economy, inflation, open borders, foreign policy, abortion, etc. Oh ok she’ll win the abortion issue possibly - Trump is looking for compromise on that to lessen the gap.
Michele has never been elected to anything, and has no political or other proven skills in any of the top concerns. She’d be fed to a meat grinder on these, and my guess is she knows this and will therefore not jump in.
'Watch the California Pretty Boy Governor wipe the floor with Sean Hannity.'
One dummy schooling another dummy?
Neither one can see MENSA from a tall tower...
I don't know why either Biden or Harris should drop out. The DNC could easily resolve this by supporting a contested primary period. The claim that the optics look bad is silly. The real issue is the desire to fundraise but not spend the money on primary campaign ads. The rest is a sitting President, capable of 4 more years per law, and we are told by the DNC and media that he's run the country very well. With that news, why drop out? Either the DNC and media need to be honest or quit being ageist, sexists, and ableist.
The best chance to win is to have the contest primary. Have potential candidates show us their plans for the country and argue their ideas of how to resolve pressing national issues. Their ability to do this and succeed in the primary will show their ability to lead our nation. The process of reaching that success will get them the recognition they need to win the general election, and if they can win the general, the cumulative efforts will give them a mandate to carry out what they said they would do on campaign trail.
It's hard, but so is being the President at 81. Happy Birthday Mr. President.
It's Michelle Obama or they don't have a chance.
Why not be in the White House instead of pulling the strings from whatever mansion they're living in?
Because she's too lazy. Why do the work when you can sit on your ass and rake in millions for doing nothing?
It doesn't matter who the D's run. The counties of Las Vegas, Phoenix, Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Milwaukee have already voted. They have already voted for whoever the D is. And I suspect all by a landslide.
It's Biden, if he lives that long. Dr Jill will not be denied.
But if Joe passes, swapping a cis-hetero white male for a black, female will force the media to go against the "woke" tide, in addition to swallowing 4 years of praise for the woman. Will the "woke" reverse course, remain peaceful & follow?
I don't think so.
Ann Althouse said...
"It will be Gavin."
You can't just do that to Kamala. There would be hell to pay, and Gavin's not having what it takes will be truly embarrassing.
--
You don't think he can "meet the moment"?
It would be awesome if Kamel Toe goes ballistic, slinging the race card like Chinese star.
And Stumblebum Joe, whose 81st birthday is today, is not a mess?! Don't piss on my leg and tell me it's raining.
July 2024: Trump is going to pick Kennedy and Kennedy will take the job... if he beats DeSantis.
And the Democrats are going to LOSE IT and try to toss Biden (who will have the votes). And IMO Obama will be thinking about 2028 vs 2024, bc removing Biden will 100% look like Dems admitting Trump-Kennedy is a HUGE shift to the center. Which means the Dems are going to have to go full McGovern OR just let Biden compete for center votes.
I don't think Obama wants the left wing to take over the party reins.
Notice that the consideration of whether Joe Biden has any sound policy plans to improve the lives of Americans is not even remotely a consideration - not even worth mentioning.
"It will be Gavin."
You can't just do that to Kamala. There would be hell to pay, and Gavin's not having what it takes will be truly embarrassing.
Meh, he can probably give Willie Brown a hummer as good as she did.
As long as Biden can keep enough braindead white Democrat voters in the Rust Belt, he is fine. Newsom or Kamala would not be able to do that. That is the only reason Biden is their best shot.
I'm still hoping he strokes out in the middle of a press Q&A and drops dead.
Bring back the copy editor ...
If Biden dropped out at any point before the Democratic convention, it is virtually certain there would be a contested battle for the nomination.... and not even a Biden endorsement of Kamala Harris would not change that.
I think we deserve a contentious convention next summer; that's what democracy looks like, I think. Having someone installed as the New Leader by the powers that be, and acclaimed nearly unanimously, would be insulting. But so far nearly everything about next year's process is designed to be as un-competitive as possible.
But their Big Tent of various factions may not be so willing to get along by then, if events continue to splinter. Acclamation may not be possible by then.
I just downloaded a library book called When the News Broke...Chicago 1968 and the Polarization of America; by someone named Heather Hendershot, who seems to be a media historian, I guess. Things got crazy...could it happen again? There's some agitated people out there that may not peaceably go along to get along, this time.
No one is noting 2-term billionaire governor of Illinois, JB Pritzker, from scion of Chicago’s mobbed-up Pritzker dynasty. (Must read: Gus Russo’s excellent book “Supermob”, which explains Pritzker empire’s political history.) Penny Pritzker, his sister or cousin, was major player in Obama ascension and administration. Pritzker are huge Dem fundraisers; JB self-financed his two campaigns for governor, as well as his extreme right Republican candidate-opponent for 2nd term election. Only guy who can self-fund a presidential run from DNC convention onward to Election Day.
Should be an easy election for the GOP but probably won't be.
Well, a meteorite could fall out of the sky and hit Ronna McDaniel on the head. That would help a lot.
Breezy said...
I get why people think Michele will helicopter in, but I’m skeptical that that’s a good opponent against Trump, given the issues people care about the most: economy, inflation, open borders, foreign policy, abortion, etc. Oh ok she’ll win the abortion issue possibly - Trump is looking for compromise on that to lessen the gap.
Michele has never been elected to anything, and has no political or other proven skills in any of the top concerns. She’d be fed to a meat grinder on these, and my guess is she knows this and will therefore not jump in.
Remember when Caroline Kennedy ran for Hillary’s senate seat in 2009? People thought she would be a shoo in but she was a terrible candidate and dropped out of the race after less than 2 months.
Go QueMala!
Rostrum,
As I recall Wilkie and Humphry had very successful presidencies, didn't they?
John Henry
“That's what Shapiro is doing. I'm only identifying what I think is a good point that he missed.”
Sorry, that doesn’t parse for me. Not in the part you quote, not in the Shapiro article as a whole. But if your point is that Joe Biden is now 1.6% behind in the polls, the Real Clear Politics page you link to notes that on November 20, 2015, Hillary Clinton was ahead 4.5%. Should the Republican front-runner Donald Trump have dropped out so that someone else could beat Hillary Clinton?
If the New York Post polls are to be believed, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer would be my choice to replace Biden. But the advantage is only marginal, and could be illusory as it is based on a hypothetical, so Biden is the surer thing this point.
Nevertheless, I disagree with Shapiro that it is “too late for a compelling Biden replacement”, By way of comparison, if Biden were to step aside between now and the end of March, that’s on the same timetable as Hubert Humphrey stepping in to run as the replacement for Lyndon Johnson in the 1968 election cycle. Humphrey only finished 0.7% behind Richard Nixon in the popular vote.
I hope like heck that Michele doesn't run - I think she'd be terrible but also that she'd be unbeatable: if no one trusts the secrecy of the voting booth anymore, how do all the nice progressives who agree that she, with no record and no useful skills in politics, would be a bad president, actually vote against her?
She would be the ultimate intersectional candidate who could - or "could" - prove the proposition that Diversity Is Our Strength, and ya gotta support that...
What happens if Biden is re-elected but dies before inauguration day? Harris would take over in the interim, but come Jan 20th, she could not be installed as prez because she was never elected to that office.
Would Mike Johnson then become president?
So the Democrats’ plan is to circumvent democracy to save democracy from Trump?
The dems need someone from the South (there's literally nobody from the NE).
Stacey Abrams would be a very smart move -- she's a good campaigner. As she isn't holding office, she would make sense as a VP choice, and her youth and lack of current office would sidestep the race optics. She's radical enough to appease the increasingly leftist young voters, whereas the smart choice, Amy Klobuchar, is an older white woman and therefore unacceptable to them.
This is not an endorsement, of course.
Popping popcorn. A convention I might actually watch. They could fund the nominee's campaign with pay per view.
Biden might be so aphasic from dementia a year from now that he might be an even better handpuppet for whoever is running this administration.
I always like to recall that Michelle held a job as a hospital admin, where she was paid about $300k/year. Her main accomplishment was to institute the turfing of indigents with expensive health issues from her ER to other hospitals, to avoid the costs of treating them. Yay, Michelle! Imagine her doing that as president, for the entire country!
No one thinks Obama, Mikey, will run?
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