Althouse: At the Birdcage Café...

January 4, 2021

At the Birdcage Café...

... twitter away.

148 comments:

Iman said...: Sylvester will need to pull out every trick in his bag for this assignment.; 1/4/21, 11:51 AM
Oh Yea said...: Stock market comes back from holiday and realizes real possibility that democrats may control senate and markets are tanking. The danger isn't Biden but that there will be no check to Schumer/Pelosi congress. Biden will not veto anything they put in front of him.; 1/4/21, 12:06 PM
Calypso Facto said...: Complete with parakeet! Isn't a snowbank cruel and unusual punishment of a subtropical bird??; 1/4/21, 12:11 PM
Temujin said...: Poseur.; 1/4/21, 12:17 PM
WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...: that is just wrong on so many levels; 1/4/21, 12:17 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: Why do people use "beauty" filters on their social media pictures? No one looks more beautiful with computer enlarged eyes, slimmed face, and painted skin--they look like cartoon characters. No one is fooled, and the pictures fall into the uncanny valley.; 1/4/21, 12:21 PM
Dust Bunny Queen said...: Oh Yea said... Stock market comes back from holiday and realizes real possibility that democrats may control senate and markets are tanking

We both, husband and I, have inherited money this last year due to parents passing away. Instead of investing, as I would have done before, I have elected to just park the cash into a money market account until the future is a bit clearer.

A Biden Presidency in the offering, I would not invest in the stock market because the markets will tank. We could be buying at the all time high that a Donald Trump economy had created and being ready to crater when the Progressive Dems get in control. Trump..yes. But not all at once, as I expect the violence and chaos to get much much worse.

Interest rates may rise, so perhaps short term high quality investments might be in order for a small portion.

The cratering of the economy from Covid idiocy, and the well founded fear of future Progressive insanity is a certainty. Already happened and happening. There are likely some dividend paying stocks in companies that are "recession proof". Those are few and far between and even those are subject to the disastrous global policies that the Dems will be ushering in.

At our ages, we are going to stay liquid for the most part, like 75%.... with some positions in hard assets that do not depreciate in a downturn but can also quickly become liquid.

For younger people with a longer time frame...I would wait until the Biden/Progressive agenda has truly tanked the market and the economy and then slowly and gradually invest in dividend and growth types of companies in the hopes that the country will get its head out its collective asses. AND expand my global holdings to countries that have valuable resource based companies and technologies that are proven to be indispensable.. (minerals, oil, etc)

Just my 2 cents. I'm not licensed anymore so you can take this for what it is worth. Free.; 1/4/21, 12:23 PM
Danno said...: DBQ, I am in your camp as to the direction of the stock markets. While I can't totally cash out as that would cause my very substantial dividend income to tank, I have raised my cash and money market balances to unprecedented levels via strategic stock sales and retention of dividend cash.; 1/4/21, 12:47 PM
Tomcc said...: That...is a weird photo.
Oh Yea & DBQ; I'm inclined to agree. More simply, at some point the market is going to reflect economic reality. My own belief is that our economy is not doing well and the trillions that are being used to prop it up will come back to haunt us. (Well, our children anyway.); 1/4/21, 12:48 PM
wild chicken said...: I've done well I this market but it's kind of sickening when you realize what keeps it inflated.; 1/4/21, 12:52 PM
jaydub said...: We were in Gulf Shores for the holidays and the wife came down with an upper respiratory infection along with a bad cold. We went to an emergent care clinic for treatment and she was met at the car by a nurse who checked her before allowing her inside the clinic. The nurse said that based on her symptoms and lack of fever she was unlikely to have covid, but protocol was to conduct a rapid test before admitting her to the clinic. She took the test and it was negative, so she was allowed inside and saw a doctor, who diagnosed bronchitis, but gave her a cortisone shot and antibiotic prescription since he felt it could develop into pneumonia. So, confirmed not covid, diagnosed as bronchitis with borderline pneumonia. A few days later she received the treatment summary and recommendations via email and it stated "acute respiratory infection, probable covid." I wonder how many other "cases" of covid have been similarly pulled out of a dark place and for what reason.

BTW, judging from the license plates on the cars there it seemed the whole populations of Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota was in Gulf Shores for the holidays. Weather must really suck up there this year - we don't usually get so many snowbirds in GS until later in January when the rental rates go down.; 1/4/21, 12:55 PM
320Busdriver said...: Wait til Dems win both those seats. “Crater” will be operative word.; 1/4/21, 12:55 PM
320Busdriver said...: The question is did I raise enough cash in Nov?; 1/4/21, 12:58 PM
stevew said...: Our host drops a dime, actually a photo, on an animal cruelty offender. Good to see.; 1/4/21, 12:58 PM
Jupiter said...: What idiot thought that was a good idea?; 1/4/21, 1:11 PM
Robert Cook said...: "I would wait until the Biden/Progressive agenda has truly tanked the market and the economy...."

How can that happen? There will not be a "Biden/Progressive agenda."; 1/4/21, 1:16 PM
tcrosse said...: How can that happen? There will not be a "Biden/Progressive agenda."

We really don't know exactly who is driving the bus, or who will end up under it. Too soon to tell.; 1/4/21, 1:23 PM
Original Mike said...: "Instead of investing, as I would have done before, I have elected to just park the cash into a money market account until the future is a bit clearer."

We pulled a ton of money out of the market last week. I have a pessimistic opinion of where this market is going, what with the sky-high valuations and the democrats coming to power, but I adamantly reject market timing. I don't believe anyone, and certainly not me, can time the market, so normally I would not act on my view. Standing pat has worked out well for me over my lifetime. However, we have now reached the age where our time horizon has shrunk, so I have an out which lets me follow my instincts. It's not market timing anymore, it's prudence. ;-)

That said, we still have a ton of money in the market in tax-deferred accounts. A big downturn would be an opportunity to do a Roth conversion and save a lot of taxes. I did this in 2008 and it worked out great. Would love to do it again. I'm kind of rooting for a crash.

If the market goes up I'll feel good. If the market goes down I'll feel good. It's an interesting place to be.; 1/4/21, 1:27 PM
MadTownGuy said...: More nincompoopery from Eudaimonia:

Why Freedom Became Free-Dumb in America

"What Americans Don’t Understand About Freedom — That Europeans and Canadians Do

By now, you might have heard North Dakota is the world’s worst Covid hotspot. The world’s worst, with South Dakota not far behind. Things aren’t just desperate there — they’re bizarre, at least to the rest of the world. Nurses talk about patients in the Covid ICU lashing out at them because…they don’t believe Covid exists…while they’re dying of it. Meanwhile, the governor refuses to make mask-wearing mandatory, because she thinks that masks and lockdowns don’t work. You might think all that would infuriate Dakotans, but quite the opposite is true: they’re firmly behind her, as they are Donald Trump, the President who let Covid spin out of control, and make North Dakota the world’s worst Covid hotspot.
What the?
The rest of the world is staggered by all that, because it is staggering. How many twisted levels of illogic are even in there? Too many to count. People in the world’s worst Covid hotspot dying of Covid who don’t believe Covid exists so they won’t fight Covid and back a President and Governor who’ve just let it explode. It’s so awesomely weird that you can’t really find this level of backwardness and folly anywhere else in the world, which is exactly why Dakota is the world’s worst Covid hotspot. But it’s not just North Dakota. Nine of the ten world’s worst Covid hotspots are American states.

...

America became obsessed with free-dumb: the idea of freedom as the removal of all restraint, the right to harm others, the ability to do anything you please, no matter how destructive, toxic, foolish, or inane. Covid’s a jaw-dropping example of it. Think about the example above: it involves at least three levels of free-dumb. The right to “believe” Covid doesn’t exist, the right not to have to wear a mask, the right not to have to lock down. All these effectively add up to the idea that Americans should be free to infect anyone they please with a lethal disease. What on earth?

...

Here's where the writer tries to make the case:

"Where does this amazingly, jaw-droopingly stupid idea of free-dumb come from? Covid’s hardly some kind of anomaly. It’s part of a larger pattern. Americans — in the vast, vast majority — think of freedom in a way that by now the rest of the rich world and much of the poor one regards as dangerously backwards. Freedom is the right not to ever have to cooperate, to invest, to act for the common wealth or common good.

...
So goes the logic of the average American. The idea of free-dumb is something like this. Freedom means a gun, a beer, a Bible, and no rights for women and minorities. But textbooks and medicine and good food and water — those take away your freedom."

So many strawman arguments...but it was as I expected from someone with this byline:

umair haque
vampire; 1/4/21, 1:27 PM
rhhardin said...: I had a house finch in an outdoor birdcage while treating him for conjunctivitis. Takes a two week course of tetracycline in the water.

Had captured the nearly blind bird by hand, and seemed to recover fine. As with all antibiotics, he wanted to leave earlier than two weeks.; 1/4/21, 1:32 PM
Kate said...: A little vitamin D. Above 20 degrees and my hens would wander in the snow. Below that, I'd keep them locked in the barn.; 1/4/21, 1:32 PM
rhhardin said...: Even Rush isn't great these days, but the guest hosts are really awful. If they don't hand Steyn the gig, the affiliates will drop it.; 1/4/21, 1:35 PM
rhhardin said...: This doesn't seem to be quite the right statistical juxtaposition

Black people are 13% of the U.S. population, but make up half of [prison] exonerations, per @exonerationlist.; 1/4/21, 1:42 PM
rhhardin said...: Although the moon is smaller than the earth, it is farther away.; 1/4/21, 1:43 PM
GingerBeer said...: Who puts a parakeet in a "time-out?"; 1/4/21, 1:47 PM
Gahrie said...: This doesn't seem to be quite the right statistical juxtaposition

Black people are 13% of the U.S. population, but make up half of [prison] exonerations, per @exonerationlist.

It's not.

Black people make up 13% of the population.
Black males make up 6.5% of the population. Account for age, and the fact that there are 500,000 Black men in prison, and Black males make up around 5% of the population.

That 5% of the population commits more than 50% of all violent crime.

Why doesn't anyone know or care? Because they commit most of it against each other.; 1/4/21, 1:51 PM
Oh Yea said...: Dust Bunny Queen and Original Mike

Looks like we are of the same mind. I've never been a market timer but I just retired at the end of November and will need to start withdrawing some this year so I just converted what I estimated I will need for the next 7 years (I'm delaying collecting SS and my wife has a deferred pension) to safe investments. Still have a modest amount in the market but that I can afford that to get hammered for the next couple of year and hopefully ride that out for the long term not for me but because I have an investment for 40+ years for my wife.; 1/4/21, 1:53 PM
5M - Eckstine said...: I did that with a parakeet and it froze to death.; 1/4/21, 1:56 PM
NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...: Nurses talk about patients in the Covid ICU lashing out at them because…they don’t believe Covid exists…while they’re dying of it.

Total bullshit.; 1/4/21, 1:57 PM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: Snow Business.; 1/4/21, 2:00 PM
Oh Yea said...: NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...
Nurses talk about patients in the Covid ICU lashing out at them because…they don’t believe Covid exists…while they’re dying of it.

In Ohio the state is running TV adds with nurses crying and saying the same thing asking the public to take COVID seriously and then later in the day the news is reporting 40% of the nurses and other medical personnel are not getting vaccinated when offered. So who is not taking it seriously?; 1/4/21, 2:02 PM
rhhardin said...: The way to beat the market consistently is dollar cost averaging, just keep buying at a constant rate regardless what the market does. Old news.

New news - the market beats you when you're taking money out the same way. If you take out at a constant rate regardless what the market does, you get a lower amount of money out, having sold more when the market is low and less when the market is high.

So it averages out.; 1/4/21, 2:04 PM
Curious George said...: "Weather must really suck up there this year - we don't usually get so many snowbirds in GS until later in January when the rental rates go down."

It's been the mildest December that I can remember...some days in the 50's. Milwaukee WI.; 1/4/21, 2:10 PM
320Busdriver said...: @ Original Mike..I believe we are in similar spots. Timing is probably a fools errand, but every time you get it right you get a little more bold. The bigger the pile and closer to d day the more defense I seem to want to play. And this week could look like the 3rd week in Feb. Hope not.; 1/4/21, 2:16 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: Why does everyone want chickens? Nearly every woman I know in person either has or wants chickens. Many people who come over point out that I have plenty of room to put a chicken coop in my yard. No thanks.; 1/4/21, 2:18 PM
tcrosse said...: So the question is whether to take my RMDs sooner or later. Hmmm....; 1/4/21, 2:22 PM
Wince said...: Cash heavy, but with TVIX (sadly?) gone and unrealized cap gains, I'm looking to options to hedge my holdings rather than selling.; 1/4/21, 2:24 PM
Ann Althouse said...: "Why does everyone want chickens? Nearly every woman I know in person either has or wants chickens. Many people who come over point out that I have plenty of room to put a chicken coop in my yard. No thanks."

Why do people want any kind of animal to take care of? At least with chickens, you get eggs (and, eventually, wonderful soup). Why clean up after a dog or cat? That makes less sense.; 1/4/21, 2:25 PM
Tomcc said...: Freeman Hunt: Why does everyone want chickens?
As a teen, I worked on a smallish farm where they raised Herefords. Even though it hadn't been used in years, the chicken coop was the nastiest, smelliest building on the property.; 1/4/21, 2:28 PM
Original Mike said...: Blogger Oh Yea said..."I've never been a market timer but I just retired at the end of November and will need to start withdrawing some this year so I just converted what I estimated I will need for the next 7 years (I'm delaying collecting SS and my wife has a deferred pension) to safe investments."

I think that's the way to do it. Take enough out now so that you don't need to sell into a downdraft later.; 1/4/21, 2:31 PM
NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...: Freeman Hunt said...

Why does everyone want chickens? Nearly every woman I know in person either has or wants chickens. Many people who come over point out that I have plenty of room to put a chicken coop in my yard. No thanks.

As said above; you get eggs. And they're relatively low maintenance until you move, then they're a pain. It's usually not worth transporting them to the new house, but you can't just leave them there and you have to find someone who'll take them.; 1/4/21, 2:31 PM
Wince said...: Althouse said...
Why clean up after a dog or cat? That makes less sense.

"But a dog's got personality. Personality goes a long way."; 1/4/21, 2:33 PM
rhhardin said...: I had eight roosters, victims of abandonment that took up residence in my yard, for a couple of years. They were no trouble at all, and ate all the ticks. They were pleased for a couple of handfuls of corn feed in the winter, and all wound up with frost-bitten combs but otherwise did okay.

Roosters the white ones are mine, often with doberman.; 1/4/21, 2:37 PM
Original Mike said...: Blogger tcrosse said..."So the question is whether to take my RMDs sooner or later. Hmmm...."

Coin flip. Georgia may provide guidance.; 1/4/21, 2:39 PM
chuck said...: Why does everyone want chickens?

If you die in the coop the chickens will dispose of the body, saving your heirs money.; 1/4/21, 2:40 PM
Original Mike said...: Blogger 320Busdriver …"The bigger the pile and closer to d day the more defense I seem to want to play."

That's the way you should play it, no?; 1/4/21, 2:43 PM
rhhardin said...: Take RMDs in January so they have some relation to the value of the fund on December 31, otherwise you risk withdrawing after a market drop more than you'd want to.; 1/4/21, 2:44 PM
West Texas Intermediate Crude said...: rhhardin-
Dollar cost averaging is a great way to get into investing, but a lousy way to get out.
Take advantage of what you know. You can never predict the future price of an investment, but you always know whether it has gone up or down. When it's time to convert invested money into spending money, sell what has gone up. That locks in the gain, and eliminates the likelihood of selling at a loss. This is especially true in tax deferred accounts, where the tax paid is the same whether you're selling a gainer or a loser.
I'm approx equal in stocks, bonds, cash, and gold. The advisor advises against being so much into gold, but it's looking real good over the past year, and over the past few hours. Gold has not been good over the past 50 years, but I don't think the next 50 years will work like the last 50. YMMV.; 1/4/21, 2:45 PM
wild chicken said...: "otherwise you risk withdrawing after a market drop more than you'd want to."

Huh. That makes sense. But do Roth conversions in a drop.; 1/4/21, 2:57 PM
jaydub said...: Eudaimonia article referenced by MadTownGuy "By now, you might have heard North Dakota is the world’s worst Covid hotspot."

North Dakota's current average infection rate is 0.9 persons infected by each person with Covid (second lowest to Alaska's 0.87,) i.e., rather than being the nation's Covid hot spot the disease is petering out in ND.; 1/4/21, 3:00 PM
Wince said...: At the Birdcage Café...

Shouldn't there be a New York Times link, re: lining?; 1/4/21, 3:10 PM
Gahrie said...: Why clean up after a dog or cat? That makes less sense.

For the same reason you clean up after anyone incapable of doing it for themselves, because you love them.; 1/4/21, 3:22 PM
Gahrie said...: Why does everyone want chickens?

Low maintenance, low feed costs, eats insect pests, tills the soil, fertilizes the soil, provides eggs, and you can eat them when they stop laying.

Plus you can raise them in a small space, so perfect for urban and suburban homes.; 1/4/21, 3:25 PM
320Busdriver said...: That's the way you should play it, no?

1/4/21, 2:43 PM

As I see it , yes! In previous years, like 08,09 I just let it ride and it worked OK. I'm no longer interested in seeing it drop by such a large amount. But I'm also allocated a bit too aggressively for my age. TBH; 1/4/21, 3:40 PM
mockturtle said...: We had chickens for a few years and they were wonderful. A dozen Buff Orpingtons and a dozen Barred Rock. If I weren't away half the year, I might have some now.; 1/4/21, 3:42 PM
320Busdriver said...: Had a Quaker parrot for a few years. There were days when I could have set him out. But the neighbors would have called the cops from the squawking.; 1/4/21, 3:44 PM
320Busdriver said...: Watching Biden. Is it possible he's thrilled seeing Americans lined up at food banks? Because it sure seems like he is. If in fact its even true. This is a disaster.; 1/4/21, 3:51 PM
Kai Akker said...: The greatest bull market the Fed ever created.

They bid em up last few weeks for the big opening surge on the big 401K inflows. So obvious.

Whoops.

Georgia. Biden/Pelosi/Soros. Cap gains tax up. Corp inc tax rate up.

Long way down.; 1/4/21, 4:06 PM
Rosalyn C. said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 1/4/21, 4:57 PM
Rosalyn C. said...: Juanita Broaddrick @atensnut asks: How will churches decide which are hymns and which are hers?

I read at the babylon bee that Biden will impose a mask mandate and a womandate.; 1/4/21, 4:58 PM
n.n said...: hymns and which are hers

Parum ...

mandate and a womandate

... pum.

April 1st can't come soon enough.; 1/4/21, 5:52 PM
Narr said...: Son was sent home from work last Monday, after one of his roommates and his mother had tested pos for COVID. They were asymptomatic, though, and as of the other day nobody had developed any.

He got a test last week (neg) and they told him to get another today and if he was neg and felt OK, to come back to work. I haven't heard anything else yet.

The local 'news' is COVID CRISIS about 75% of the time, with breathless (ha) reporting of snafus and fubars on every broadcast . . . mostly for lack of Federal direction doncha know.

Narr
FTR, not everyone wants chickens; 1/4/21, 5:52 PM
Mike of Snoqualmie said...: rhhardin, DBQ, etc.:

I'm retired and have my money in stock index funds. My allocation is 30/30/40 - U.S. stocks, foreign stocks and U.S. short/intermediate term bonds plus one year's living expenses in cash equivalents. When the Stock/Bond ratio reaches 65/35, I sell stocks and buy bonds, likewise, when it's 55/45, I sell bonds to buy stocks. Rebalance at the end of the year and take out money for the next year. Sticking to this plan means I buy low and sell high. I never time the market, that's a fools errand.

This year, the portfolio gained 5.2% total value over the beginning of 2020. When the stocks tanked in March, I rebalanced twice on the way down and later in the year when they'd recovered, I rebalanced in the other direction.

Take a risk quiz to see what stock/bond ratio you're comfortable with.; 1/4/21, 5:54 PM
Mike Sylwester said...: Why would a Ukrainian natural-gas company hire this person onto its Board of Directors?; 1/4/21, 5:59 PM
The Crack Emcee said...: "I'm no Trumpie, but I hate the Clintons and the way they and the DNC exploit the ignorance and cowardice of the Black community. It takes courage to spit the truth,..."

- The latest comment on my song, "Deplorables"; 1/4/21, 6:01 PM
Big Mike said...: Poor little unloved thing. Hook bills can get pneumonia, same as humans. Some people don’t deserve to have pets.; 1/4/21, 6:13 PM
Original Mike said...: I've been 100% stock for 35 years. Market downturns didn't bother me, but I'm too old for that now. 25% went into cash last week.; 1/4/21, 6:18 PM
RoseAnne said...: I live in a small town in Ohio. After having breakfast with me, my Dad drove to the cemetary to visit my mother's (his wife of 62 years) grave. He put the car in park, turned off the engine and died. For his age (89 at the time) he was in pretty good shape and I saw no indication of any new problem at breakfast. Just his time to go. But because of his kids being out of state for various reasons, it was a week before we could have the funeral. The day after he died, a chicken showed up in the yard of the house were he had lived. Now 2 miles down the road, there are probably people with a chicken coop, but he lived in town. As family gathered, the chicken showed up and hung out in the yard. When the people left, the chicken left. After the funeral was over, we never saw the chicken again. (And no, there was no chicken at his funeral dinner. :-) ); 1/4/21, 6:20 PM
Iman said...: Ann, you may need to garner a Cairn Terrier to understand why people treat their dogs like members of their families.; 1/4/21, 6:36 PM
Iman said...: Spotify dissed you, Crack! Song was shitcanned, no longer there.; 1/4/21, 6:38 PM
FullMoon said...: RoseAnne said...

I live in a small town in Ohio. After having breakfast with me, my Dad drove to the cemetary to visit my mother's (his wife of 62 years) grave. He put the car in park, turned off the engine and died. For his age (89 at the time) he was in pretty good shape and I saw no indication of any new problem at breakfast. Just his time to go. But because of his kids being out of state for various reasons, it was a week before we could have the funeral. The day after he died, a chicken showed up in the yard of the house were he had lived. Now 2 miles down the road, there are probably people with a chicken coop, but he lived in town. As family gathered, the chicken showed up and hung out in the yard. When the people left, the chicken left. After the funeral was over, we never saw the chicken again. (And no, there was no chicken at his funeral dinner. :-) )

Dang it, not sure if that is heartwarming Hallmark TV, or scary Steven King short story.; 1/4/21, 6:42 PM
Rabel said...: "Why do people want any kind of animal to take care of?"

Ask this guy:

https://www.needsomefun.net/bob-dylan-loves-dogs-cats-17-photos-2/; 1/4/21, 6:59 PM
Tomcc said...: RoseAnne: substitute dove for chicken and you've got a Hallmark story.

I just saw an article that states Steven Brandenburg (the WI pharmacist) thought the vaccine unsafe. Ah, well.; 1/4/21, 7:01 PM
FullMoon said...: This documentery is suprprisingly interesting.

Chicken People (2016) - IMDb

"Chicken People is a funny and uplifting look at the world of show chickens and the people who love them. Starting at the largest national poultry competition, likened to the Westminster Dog Show for chickens, Chicken People follows three top competitors over the course of a year as they grapple with life's challenges while vying to win the next year's crown. Both humorous and heartfelt, Chicken People is an unforgettable celebration of the human spirit."; 1/4/21, 7:08 PM
The Crack Emcee said...: Iman said...

Spotify dissed you, Crack! Song was shitcanned, no longer there.

Not true: it hasn't appeared on Spotify yet.

Their approval process takes about two weeks, so it's just on Soundcloud and dropbox now.

Good lookin' out, though: I appreciate you.; 1/4/21, 7:26 PM
William said...: Over the summer, when the market recovered, I took some money out a growth fund and put it in bonds and a new bathroom and kitchen. Granite counter futures is the way to go. Then the market kept going up. I have found that the one sure way to trigger a market boom is for me to take money out of it....I don't understand economics. I'm like Paul Krugman in that regard. We keep printing up trillions of dollars and spreading it around, but inflation remains minimal. How can that be?...I wouldn't want to bet on this (although I just did), but I think bond funds will suffer more than stock holdings if inflation takes off. The Great Depression shaped my parents' generation. Inflation shaped mine. I keep expecting the economy to go all Weimar but it hasn't happened....We're still at a pretty primitive level in our understanding of economics. We know that capitalism works better than socialism but not much beyond that. The market is based on the principles of alchemy rather than chemistry. Well, as it turned out, the market was a kind of philosopher's stone for me. I came out ahead mostly because of the era in which I was born and in which I invested money.; 1/4/21, 7:51 PM
Original Mike said...: "I came out ahead mostly because of the era in which I was born and in which I invested money."

I was willing to go all in because I believed in capitalism and I believed in America. People free to act in their own self-interest benefits all of us. Rising tide, growing the pie, …

If I were just starting out now, I would not be nearly as optimistic about the next 35 years.; 1/4/21, 8:05 PM
Clyde said...: Showtime... Let's see where he goes with this.; 1/4/21, 8:11 PM
I'm Not Sure said...: "Rising tide, growing the pie, …"

Democrats don't believe in growing the pie. They prefer to squabble over the crumbs.; 1/4/21, 8:13 PM
Freeman Hunt said...: Eggs are currently 8.6 cents each at the grocery store. You can buy 18 for $1.55, and you don't have to feed or clean up after any chickens. They may be hiding their talents, but I've not met a chicken with the personality of a dog or cat.

Hardin's setup sounds acceptable. Roam free and eat ticks. I could go for that. They'd have to survive a lot of predators for it to work.; 1/4/21, 8:14 PM
Original Mike said...: "Democrats don't believe in growing the pie. They prefer to squabble over the crumbs."

And they're the teachers. Like I said; not optimistic.; 1/4/21, 8:17 PM
Inga said...: This is what jumping down the rabbit hole does...

A pharmacist who was arrested on charges that he intentionally sabotaged more than 500 doses of the Covid-19 vaccine at a Wisconsin hospital was “an admitted conspiracy theorist” who believed the vaccine could harm people and “change their DNA,” according to the police in Grafton, Wis., where the man was employed.; 1/4/21, 8:17 PM
rhhardin said...: I'm in luck. The frozen morningstar chicken patties that I must have had for five years are best by December 17, 2021.; 1/4/21, 8:19 PM
rhhardin said...: A rising pie floats all boats.; 1/4/21, 8:20 PM
The Crack Emcee said...: Inga said...

"This is what jumping down the rabbit hole does..."

Not true: as this Twitter thread shows, if you buy the Harvey Milk was a good guy trope, you're already so deep into it, it's not even funny,...; 1/4/21, 8:27 PM
320Busdriver said...: I’m not willing to bet it all, but TSLA could help me retire a few years early. I’m a bit more apt to concentrate on ARK Invest ETFs. Cathie Wood is stellar.; 1/4/21, 8:57 PM
Readering said...: Are those kraken droppings under that snow?; 1/4/21, 9:13 PM
Original Mike said...: I'm an index man, myself.; 1/4/21, 9:14 PM
rhhardin said...: Scott Adams Einstein's Janator's View cartoon

(bell curve, succesove parts labelled DUMB, Average, and DUMB)

That's pastoral. The life of the low is the true life.

But he's calling the smart guys dumb because he has no use for their ideas.

It's like woman about men.; 1/4/21, 9:17 PM
wildswan said...: Here are the comments.
Guess what the picture was.

Poseur.

Why does everyone want chickens?

Why do people use "beauty.? That is just wrong on so many levels.

A Biden Presidency in the offering.

Judging from the license plates on the cars there it seemed the whole populations of Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota was in Gulf Shores for the holidays.

wait until the Biden/Progressive agenda has truly tanked the market.

How can that happen? There will not be a "Biden/Progressive agenda."

We really don't know exactly who is driving the bus, or who will end up under it.

This doesn't seem to be quite the right statistical juxtaposition

I had a house finch in an outdoor birdcage while treating him for conjunctivitis.

I did that with a parakeet and it froze to death.

It was as I expected from someone with this byline:
umair haque
vampire

Who puts a parakeet in a "time-out?"

Complete with parakeet! Isn't a snowbank cruel?; 1/4/21, 9:19 PM
rhhardin said...: I notice the I-bonds (savings bonds indexed for inflation) return a coupon of 0% but then inflation is added in, which is probably a good deal. No tax until you redeem them or 30 years, whichever comes first. Limit $10k a year.

TIPS on the other hand cost you a tax every year even though they haven't actually paid you anything yet. But no limit. I think they probably have a negative coupon but don't know.; 1/4/21, 9:21 PM
Original Mike said...: "But he's calling the smart guys dumb because he has no use for their ideas."

I believe his point is that the average guy has no way to distinguish between the smart ones and the dumb ones.; 1/4/21, 9:27 PM
mockturtle said...: Roam free and eat ticks. I could go for that. They'd have to survive a lot of predators for it to work.

We let ours roam during the day--they stayed on our property--and put them inside at night. We had a lot of wildlife where we lived but didn't lose one hen or rooster. We did have dogs.; 1/4/21, 9:29 PM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: Some wildlife is worse than others.; 1/4/21, 9:42 PM
Narr said...: Typos and misspellings from rhhardin-- now that's a bad omen.

Son reports no symptoms and still awaiting today's test result. His roommate and his mom had light sniffles and seem to be doing fine.

This is SO ridic.

Hey, maybe IQ is like a Mobius strip, or that polisci meme where the extremes meet.

Narr
I've known some smart dumbasses, that's for sure; 1/4/21, 9:48 PM
I Callahan said...: How can that happen? There will not be a "Biden/Progressive agenda."

Oh, enough already. It most certainly is progressive to people in the center and right. You're so far left that the Green New Deal, nationwide lockdowns, way higher taxes and bigger government programs isn't progressive. I'm here to tell you they most certainly are progressive.; 1/4/21, 9:55 PM
320Busdriver said...: I’m a huge fan of John Bogle and indexing is a great way to build wealth. I still employ that as part of my strategy. I am lucky to have a couple of really good closed managed funds in my work plan and have succumbed to performance chasing. PRNHX and FDGRX can’t continue at their current pace, but I have no problem with the higher ER. I also like D Steins podcast and found this latest one on convertible bonds compelling.
https://moneyfortherestofus.com/convertible-bonds/; 1/4/21, 9:57 PM
gadfly said...: Glasgow Prestwick Airport, near Trump's Scots Turnberry golf resort, has been told to expect the arrival of a US military aircraft occasionally used by Trump, on January 19 – the day before Mr. Biden takes over.

“There is a booking for an American military version of the Boeing 757 on January 19, the day before the inauguration . . . normally used by the Vice-President but often used by the First Lady. Presidential flights tend to get booked far in advance, because of the work that has to be done around it.”

Speculating, one reason for the last minute trip would be to give Trump space outside America when he likely turns over the Presidency to Vice-President Pence in time for a grand pardon for our suddenly-resigned former president. Federal pardons have no effect on state-initiated prosecutions and Trump needs to be in a sovereign country where he can be protected as a right of political asylum.; 1/4/21, 10:00 PM
Gahrie said...: If the Left persists in tormenting the Trumps, let alone prosecuting them, there very well could be a violent response finally from the Right.; 1/4/21, 10:07 PM
Rt41Rebel said...: I worked with an older gentleman many years ago that called them yardbirds, and I mean he called them that when cooking and eating them, and that's what I call chickens to this day.

A few blocks away from me, in an older community of small townhouses, there is a resident flock of about two dozen yardbirds. I don't know why they are there, or if they still belong to somebody. For a while, it struck be as odd to be living in a resort beach town, and hear roosters crowing from my back yard, and to occasionally have to avoid them while riding my bike in that direction.; 1/4/21, 10:09 PM
Original Mike said...: Now, when I'd be interested in bonds, it doesn't seem like they'll provide any return. But thanks for the link, Busdriver. I will check it out.; 1/4/21, 10:15 PM
I Callahan said...: Speculating, one reason for the last minute trip would be to give Trump space outside America when he likely turns over the Presidency to Vice-President Pence in time for a grand pardon for our suddenly-resigned former president. Federal pardons have no effect on state-initiated prosecutions and Trump needs to be in a sovereign country where he can be protected as a right of political asylum.

You have literally gone insane. Get help.; 1/4/21, 10:17 PM
320Busdriver said...: This is what was shocking to me. That plus the TSLA angle..

“ Surprisingly, the U.S. convertible market outperformed the U.S. stock market as measured by the S&P 500 Index for the five years ending December 31, 2021. In 2020, U.S. convertible bonds gained 61% and have returned 20% annualized for the five year period.

This strong performance was driven by Tesla, which makes up 10% of the U.S. convertible bond market. Tesla’s 2024 2% convertible bond issue highlighted in the example above gained 600% in 2020.

Tesla contributed half of the 2020 convertible bond index return and pushed the delta of convertible bond indices much closer to one.”

You can invest in funds that won’t include TSLA if you prefer..; 1/4/21, 10:20 PM
Original Mike said...: There are convertible bond index funds?; 1/4/21, 10:23 PM
Original Mike said...: Or, at least, managed funds?; 1/4/21, 10:24 PM
320Busdriver said...: TDS knows no bounds; 1/4/21, 10:24 PM
320Busdriver said...: Yes, ETF, Mutual Fund, and closed end funds apparently.; 1/4/21, 10:27 PM
Original Mike said...: I always figured I'd build a bond ladder of Treasuries in my retirement. But there really seems little point at these rates.; 1/4/21, 10:29 PM
narciso said...: Its a short tri0 for him

https://apelbaum.wordpress.com/2021/01/05/trump-oppo-research-courtesy-of-the-ccp/; 1/4/21, 10:33 PM
320Busdriver said...: Yes, indeed. I have been talking with the folks at Fisher, but I decided not to give them a chance, just too expensive. But one of the guys told me it might not be crazy to be 100% equities at my age of 55. But that’s probably more pitch than actual advice. IDK; 1/4/21, 10:44 PM
Original Mike said...: I made it to 65 with 100% equities. I was hoping for four more years, but not now.

I did have an ace in the hole. Both my wife and I have good pensions.; 1/4/21, 10:50 PM
320Busdriver said...: Its a short tri0 for him

We’re so f@#$&*; 1/4/21, 10:51 PM
Mike of Snoqualmie said...: The biggest problem with Fisher is they use individual stocks and not index funds. You can't get enough diversity with individual stocks. Take the risk quiz referenced at 1/4/21, 5:54 PM to see what your comfortable allocation should be.; 1/4/21, 10:53 PM
320Busdriver said...: God, I wish I had a pension. Hopefully we can get back some semblance of normalcy and you can enjoy these years ahead.; 1/4/21, 10:55 PM
William said...: Chickens don't look like they're exceptionally well equipped for the Darwinian struggle, but they have some big advantages: they taste good and lay eggs.; 1/4/21, 10:58 PM
Original Mike said...: I want to get back to traveling to the southern stars. Business class.; 1/4/21, 11:01 PM
320Busdriver said...: I have a friend who turned over part of his PF to Fisher so I have seen his stock list. It’s a good list, but again too expensive and I still think my PF outperformed theirs this year, by a fair amount.

Bogle said age in bonds. But no on that for us. Maybe in a different time that was ok.; 1/4/21, 11:03 PM
Original Mike said...: I tried to take the risk quiz, Mike, but wasn't willing to give them my name.

It's academic at this point. I know my tolerance for market risk. I was more interested in testing the quiz.; 1/4/21, 11:03 PM
narciso said...: Following up
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.buzzfeednews.com/amphtml/karlazabludovsky/julian-assange-offered-asylum-by-mexico; 1/4/21, 11:04 PM
Rt41Rebel said...: @William

That's what I thought until I saw that viral video of a hawk getting its ass kicked by a chicken when it made the mistake of going after a chick. But your point is valid, an animal that can live among humans and provide benefit (dogs) or not (cockroaches) certainly has a symbiotic evolutionary advantage.; 1/4/21, 11:27 PM
Joe Smith said...: I know why the caged bird sings...because it's freezing it's ass off!

*****

Keekee bird:

Semi-mythical bird often found in the far north of Alaska and Canada. It is often found when temperatures dip below -20 degrees below 0, and while it is never seen it is easily recognized by its call:

"Kee-Keee-Keee-RIST IT'S COLD OUT HERE!"; 1/4/21, 11:50 PM
narciso said...: Seeiously

https://mobile.twitter.com/WatchChad/status/1346286501286567938; 1/5/21, 12:06 AM
narciso said...: Summming up

https://mobile.twitter.com/paulsperry_; 1/5/21, 12:12 AM
narciso said...: Proof paid

https://mobile.twitter.com/taiwandefense/status/1346307960641884161; 1/5/21, 12:14 AM
Gospace said...: Saw three different articles today saying supplements are bad for you and useless against the dreaded covid, and may even harm you! (Yes, ephdera likely will... as will some others. Do some research, damn it!)

They were especially down on Vitamin D, saying it was unproven that it's good for anything except preventing rickets.

Except the single biggest predictor- from the beginning of the covidiocy- of whether or not you'll end up in the ICU is you initial Vitamin D blood level.... And there's a crapload of valid studies ranging back for decades showing higher Vitamin D blood levels mean few complications from virtually any URI, and lower Vitamin D levels lead to worse outcomes. Including TB.

It's almost like the powers that be don't want you to do anything that might actually decrease the fright level they're pushing.; 1/5/21, 12:38 AM
narciso said...: The use of this virus is about control, peter dazhak who worked in wuhan is looking for more such bugs in singapofe; 1/5/21, 12:43 AM
narciso said...: Also you are more likely to get vitamin d from sunlight; 1/5/21, 12:46 AM
Joe Smith said...: "https://mobile.twitter.com/taiwandefense/status/1346307960641884161"

If I were the Chicoms, I'd invade Taiwan the day after inauguration.

It's the smart play.; 1/5/21, 12:52 AM
Gospace said...: Narciso, looked at the Paul Sperry thread and all I could think of was the MSM and LLR mantra: "There's no evidence of fraud!"

Quick question- Do you ever sleep?; 1/5/21, 12:54 AM
Joe Smith said...: And while I was at it, I'd tell the Norks to move on South Korea.

Who's going to stop them?

Joe? Kamala? Obama's neutered generals?

What a shit show.; 1/5/21, 12:56 AM
narciso said...: You're not wrong, the iranians might use their missiles against gulf bases.; 1/5/21, 12:57 AM
Gospace said...: If I had spent 15 minutes a day at high noon outside naked the last 3 days in CNY my body would have made as much Vitamin D as kilowatts generated by all the taxpayer subsidized photovoltaic farms in CNY- zero. I haven't even noticed a brighter spot in the cloud cover where the sun should be.; 1/5/21, 1:05 AM
gadfly said...: Latest bird-droppings from George Will involving the twisted reasoning from the GOP elite:

Hawley, Cruz and company have perhaps rescued Biden from becoming the first president in 32 years to begin his presidency without his party controlling both houses of Congress. On Tuesday, Georgians will decide control of the Senate. While they have been watching Republican attempts to delegitimize Biden’s election (two recounts have confirmed that Georgians favor Biden), Republicans were telling them: a) elections in the world’s oldest constitutional democracy, and especially in Georgia, are rigged, but b) the nation’s fate depends on their turning out for Tuesday’s (presumptively) sham run-off Senate elections, lest c) Democrats take control of the Senate and behave badly.; 1/5/21, 1:50 AM
MadTownGuy said...: My, how things have changed. From May 2013:

Obama praises hero NYPD cop and girlfriend during White House ceremony

"WASHINGTON — An impressed President Obama singled out courageous NYPD cop Ivan Marcano — and his surprised girlfriend — at a White House ceremony Saturday for heroic cops from around the country.
Marcano, one of two of the 43 officers honored Saturday who Obama cited by name, was off duty, driving through the Bronx with his girlfriend, Hilda Molina, on Oct. 24 when he spotted two armed suspects robbing a 60-year-old cabbie.

When Marcano stopped and identified himself as a police officer, one suspect immediately opened fire, wounding the officer in the arm and chest, inches from his heart.

As Molina, who Obama joked was probably “not very happy with” Marcano, drove him to the hospital, he saw the suspects and an accomplice. They had just crashed into a livery cab, jumped a curb on Burnside Ave. and ditched the car. Clutching his chest to keep pressure on his wound, Marcano jumped out of his car and approached them. As 18-year-old Prince James reportedly fired again, Marcano, a righty shooting left-handed, fatally shot James in the head.

“He wasn’t on the clock when any of this happened,” Obama said. “This was his date night. It’s unbelievable.”

The President then asked Molina to stand for applause.

“She deserves a really nice dinner,” he said to laughter.

Molina, 24, said after the ceremony that she was not expecting “to be called out like that” by the President. She said it was her first visit to Washington."

The article continues at the link.; 1/5/21, 3:12 AM
Kai Akker said...: --- PRNHX

A tech fantasia with a 10-year run. Does not enjoy bear markets.; 1/5/21, 4:44 AM
iowan2 said...: Chickens don't look like they're exceptionally well equipped for the Darwinian struggle, but they have some big advantages: they taste good and lay eggs.

Insty coined the idea to save endangered species, put them on fancy restaurants menus.

Lobster was junk food served at prisons, until it became fashionable (and I bet, discovered to dip it in hot butter); 1/5/21, 6:37 AM
BUMBLE BEE said...: https://twitter.com/stillgray/status/1346422570258628610?s=20 - Be a part of it New York, New York; 1/5/21, 6:56 AM
Big Mike said...: I'm here to tell you they most certainly are progressive.

@Callahan, good on you for calling out Cookie, however those policies will be regressive, not progressive.; 1/5/21, 7:06 AM
The Crack Emcee said...: CHECK OUT THIS SUPPRESSION FROM REDDIT'S SKEPTIC COMMUNITY WHEN FACED WITH A SONG SAYING THEY VOTE WITH THEIR ENEMY OPRAH

THEY'RE ALL TERRIFIED OF A FREE SONG - SPREAD IT AROUND: "DEPLORABLES"; 1/5/21, 7:06 AM
mockturtle said...: The bird had been pining for the fjords...; 1/5/21, 8:35 AM
The Crack Emcee said...: Reddit's Moderator is playing dumb now - like all the Democrats asking how the election was stolen.; 1/5/21, 8:50 AM
320Busdriver said...: “A tech fantasia with a 10-year run. Does not enjoy bear markets.“

Well it was established in 1960 and delivered 12% annually. I’ll take those odds.; 1/5/21, 9:00 AM
The Crack Emcee said...: Kamala Harris is a gullible idiot - or a crooked cop - who slept with the talking-to-the-dead guy, who ripped-off millions of Americans in the 90s, and the Democrats ARE FINE WITH THAT.

KNOW how low their standards are, for our country and your children, People; 1/5/21, 12:56 PM
The Crack Emcee said...: What does it MEAN in 2021 - if we KNOW it's a fraud - women's sites, specifically, and the media, generally, won't stop publishing horoscopes? It means somebody wants reality fucked-up - permanently.

That somebody is DEMANDING proof they stole an election; 1/5/21, 1:18 PM
Lurker21 said...: Parrot's cage in the snow.
144 comments.
No mention of Monty Python.
2021 could be a very good year.; 1/5/21, 2:04 PM
Narr said...: Lurker21@204--

"Pining for the fjords." And there may have been some other allusions.

Narr
h/t mock; 1/5/21, 2:21 PM
Gahrie said...: Insty coined the idea to save endangered species, put them on fancy restaurants menus.

Lobster was junk food served at prisons, until it became fashionable (and I bet, discovered to dip it in hot butter)

Not only was lobster considered a poor man's food, chicken was considered a rich man's food. The British had an expression for people who returned from India with moderate fortunes: chicken nabob.

As for the endangered species thing, I've been saying telling my students for years: "If you want to save the pandas, or polar bears or anything, you should come up with a tasty recipe for them. After all, cows and pigs are never going to go extinct.". Perhaps I got the idea from Insty originally.; 1/5/21, 3:13 PM
ken in tx said...: Chickens can have lice, and they draw flies. They strip the chicken yard down to bare ground, unless you use one of those rolling cages that allows them to feed on what ever ground you leave the cage on. BTW, that's how they raise 'pasture raised' chickens. They're not allowed to run around the pasture on their own, they're in a cage.

Chickens depend on humans for survival. There is no known feral chicken population in America, maybe anywhere. Individuals, usually roosters, can survive for their natural lifespan, but they cannot maintain a population.; 1/5/21, 9:21 PM