November 28, 2020

"The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh may not much have impact on the Iranian nuclear programme he helped build..."

"...but it will certainly make it harder to salvage the deal intended to restrict that programme, and that is – so far - the most plausible motive.... It would be a fair guess that Joe Biden would [like Obama] oppose such assassinations when he takes office on 20 January and tries to reconstitute the JCPOA – which has been left wounded but just about alive in the wake of Donald Trump’s withdrawal in 2018. If Mossad was indeed behind the assassination, Israel had a closing window of opportunity in which to carry it out with a green light from an American president, and there seems little doubt that Trump, seeking to play a spoiler role in his last weeks in office, would have given approval, if not active assistance.... Until now, Iran has been measured in its responses, both to Suleimani’s killing and to the waves of sanctions imposed by the Trump administration in the wake of the JCPOA withdrawal. But can Tehran continue to hold its nerve? A retaliatory strike could make it even harder for a Biden administration to negotiate the complex steps the US and Iran would have to take to return to compliance with the JCPOA, and open talks on other issues."

96 comments:

hombre said...

The Guardian? Seriously?

Wince said...

Leave it to the Biden globalists to view a successful strike against the war making capacity of Iran as a weakness and a reason to bend the knee further to accommodate this enemy of America.

mockturtle said...

Of course. We all know that it's Republican Presidents who order assassinations. Ngo Dinh Diem is, quite obviously, unavailable for comment.

tim in vermont said...

" Joe Biden would [like Obama] oppose such assassinations“

He said without evidence. The propaganda machine that the Democrats have is amazing in the brass of its balls.

(!) This claim that Obama opposed assassinations is disputed.

Lyle Smith said...

Not sure Israel was even involved in this. Looks like it might be a Saudi/Emirati thing. Regardless, Trump will be blamed for all of Biden's coming failings. Deep state back in full effect if they think they can rejoin the Paris climate accord and keep to Obama's kiss up to terrorists Iran deal.

MartyH said...

Biden’s going to apologize by sending another billion dollars cash to Iran. Used, non sequential bills, of course.

Tina Trent said...

As I said: Biden = Obama = Valerie Jarrett. Terrorist dictators everywhere south of North Korea celebrate.

And North Korea will always have the Carters.

narciso said...

Yes likely mek (they brought us the info about the facility at damavand 7 years ago) in conjunction with mossad.

hombre said...

“But can Tehran continue to hold its nerve? A retaliatory strike could make it even harder for a Biden administration to negotiate the complex steps the US and Iran would have to take to return to compliance with the JCPOA, and open talks on other issues."

The restoration of an Obama Iran faux pas and the aggrandizement of the ChiComs is about as much as can be expected from Beijing Biden.

Michael said...

The Guardian is entitled to its opinion, but I think the fact that Israel/Saudi Arabia know who you are and can blow you butt up will, in fact, have an impact on future hiring, at least, for Iran's nuclear program. More effectively than giving them palettes of cash.

Anonymous said...

seeking to play a spoiler role in his last weeks in office, would have given approval,

So a Dem (Obama) has a legitimate desire to "create a legacy" by lying to us about an Iran nuke deal

and So a Dem (Biden) has a legitimate desire to "salvage a legacy" by lying to us about an Iran nuke deal


but a GOP (Trump) has a evil desire to "be a spoiler " by trying to keep Iran in a nuclear box and sustain actual mid-East peace progress

JAORE said...

The Guardian? Seriously?

When the NYTs isn't lefty enough.

Unknown said...

I think the article is correct as far as it goes; the goal of the killing was to thwart “diplomacy.” Left unstated is that it would make a particular diplomatic path less tenable (reinstating the JCPOA) and advance the Trump diplomatic strategy of building an Arab-Israeli coalition against Iran.

Rob said...

Fakhrizadeh . . . and the horse he rode in on.

narciso said...

That explains why he was at damavand.

Temujin said...

I gotta say, many of us knew and watched the folly of our foreign policy experts- for years. Going back to Viet Nam we saw this. And for decades after that, while the experts who keep getting recycled from one Presidential administration to the next, keep getting us into wrong situations, losing lives and spending the country's wealth on mistakes. They are then seen smiling and shrugging as they offer more insight as to how they world should be run while speaking at global conferences, gaining appointments to higher posts, and sometimes, finding themselves running for President.

After four years of Trump using unconventional approaches to the world and watching the US gain back some of its heft, finding ourselves in no new wars, not invading any new countries, and holding our enemies feet to the fire, while building larger agreement groups between our allies- I think much of the US population will not as easily be swallowing the Deep State solutions to world governance. When John Kerry speaks, I ignore it. When Antony Blinken tells us how the world should work, I will remind myself of his track record. When Joe Biden speaks, I'll wait for the confusion coming up soon.

Their spell has been broken. Another of Trump's legacies. They may get to make the decisions for now, but we're not buying it any longer.

gspencer said...

"A retaliatory strike [by the Muslims] could make it even harder for a Biden administration to negotiate the complex steps the US and Iran would have to take"

Mission Accomplished then.

Browndog said...

New York Times World
@nytimesworld

Iranian officials, who have always maintained that their nuclear ambitions are for peaceful purposes, not weapons, expressed fury and vowed revenge over the assassination, calling it an act of terrorism and warmongering

11:49 PM · Nov 27, 2020

tim in vermont said...

"I gotta say, many of us knew and watched the folly of our foreign policy experts- for years. Going back to Viet Nam we saw this.”

Trump, just this week gave Henry Kissinger his walking papers.

narciso said...

The cake was baked early in vietnam halberstam was relying on pham xam who was aviet cong agent, kennedy then relied of halberstam, and he told harriman and together they pushed out richardson and let the coup plotters have their wY.

Sebastian said...

"to return to compliance with the JCPOA"

As if.

But with a few $B thrown into the pot, things would be great!

Howard said...

Well at least we know why Trump sent those b-52s to the middle East last week. the one thing I'm going to miss about Donald is his policy toward Iran.

narciso said...

Blinken was one of those who probably bought the nuclear freeze lock stock and barrel, sullivan is a wholy owned chinese subsidiary through the carnegie endowment.

J. Farmer said...

After four years of Trump using unconventional approaches to the world and watching the US gain back some of its heft...

Wow. One hardly knows where to begin with such level of delusion.

Michael K said...

Blogger J. Farmer said...
After four years of Trump using unconventional approaches to the world and watching the US gain back some of its heft...

Wow. One hardly knows where to begin with such level of delusion.


Some people are born to lose. Farmer is looking forward to it.

Birkel said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Birkel said...

Smug is here to chew bubblegum and be Smug.

chuck said...

What if Biden doesn't take office?

Michael K said...

expressed fury and vowed revenge over the assassination,

The mullahs do a lot of that. I think it is in their religion. No books but lots of threats and rage.

Rusty said...

There's always the option that he was offed by his own people. Pick your reason.

"Wow. One hardly knows where to begin with such level of delusion."
Nor with yours.

J. Farmer said...

Smug is here to chew bubblegum and be Smug.

And I’m all out of bubblegum.

Chuck said...

An interesting story, and I thank Althouse for blogging it.

Howard said...

J Farmer: What do you think of this specific incident? Nothing Burger, disaster, victory for peace loving people?

MD Greene said...

Sorry, Tehran's on the ropes. It has a large and restive young population that wants jobs. Its lies about its nuclear programs and its troublemaking in the region have lost the sympathy of Islamic countries that want technology and to get out of the oil-based economic trap. Plus, the rational actors have had it with the extortion of the PLO, Hezbollah and, yes, ISIS. Israel at least is rational.

If Biden's crack international team screws this up, there will be hell to pay and not just in the U.S.

Openidname said...

After the assassination of Soleimani, all we heard was that Iran was undoubtedly going to unleash terrifying retaliation.

So the usual boys have cried wolf already.

Drago said...

Howard: "Well at least we know why Trump sent those b-52s to the middle East last week. the one thing I'm going to miss about Donald is his policy toward Iran."

It is not possible to reconcile this latest Howard statement with Howards many previous positions which included vehement opposition to taking out Soleimani, withdrawing from the JCPOA (AKA Iran Nuke Bomb Acceleration Program), Trump moves that accelerated the isolation of the Iranian supported Hezbollah and Hamas crews, etc.

It strikes one as similar to adSs now rewriting history that no one, NO ONE, on the democratical side actually ever said Trump colluded with Russia, just that maybe Putin put a few rubles into the anti-Hillary effort.

After awhile, one is no longer surprised in the slightest at these hilarious complete and total reversals within short periods of time.

Another example:

Howard for months: antifa are heroes on a par with our Normandy invaders and should be respected for their direct action!

Howard after the lightswitch flips: antifa is a myth snd doesnt even exist.

So expect the backtracking to continue as we enter into Phase 2 of the Obama/Harris/Biden plan to help reshape the world into a tripartite global leadership dominated by China, the EU and Iran.

mockturtle said...

And I’m all out of bubblegum.
LOL. Nice riposte, Farmer. ;-D

Biotrekker said...

Yeah. I trust the guardian to understand nuclear bomb science.

gilbar said...

John Brennan says that, because of the degradation of the Iranian Nuclear arm.. Biden administration will be ceding the 20th Air Force's 90th missile wing to Iran
Peace Through (giving your enemies) Strength

gilbar said...

i'm just kidding, Biden won't be giving the Iranians any Minuteman Missiles in Wyoming...
He'll just be giving the Iranians the USS Wyoming

Howard said...

Go back to the archives Drago. I applauded the vaporization of Suileman. I'm very consistent in my hard line view of Iran and Islam in general. It's really sad how far down the L Don Trumppard OT rabbit hole you have fallen.

narciso said...

Their scientists arent very good 30 years since the 'fatwa'and they still havent built the bomb, with korea and pakistani scientists.

Josephbleau said...

Under the Biden admin government workers can go back to making Money by selling their offices. Worth the price if they stay in corruptostan and shut up.

Anonymous said...

Temujin said...
I gotta say, many of us knew and watched the folly of our foreign policy experts- for years. Going back to Viet Nam we saw this


At least from the founding up into the Kennedy years, our betters used to send their sons off to fight in their failures. Now the Elites set policy and let others do the dying.

Been there, done that, got the T-shirt.

West Texas Intermediate Crude said...

The mullahs know that they have to only hold their fire until the 3rd week of January, then they get what they want, for free.
Probably get a bonus from John Kerry, even.
Even the mullahs are smart enough not to mess this opportunity up by committing to a futile, stupid gesture. The USA will corner that market in 7 weeks.

Richard Aubrey said...

Nukes were devised seventy-five years ago. Now, even Pakistan has them. Iran doesn't need a mash-up of Oppenheimer and Einstein. They need a good scientist with good executive skills. IOW, this guy can be replaced.
Problem is the government has to figure out how this happened. How far has whosits' intel penetrated that the gunmen knew where and when and which vehicle?
How many uninvolved will die under severe interrogation, those whose talents might have been useful? How many costly dead ends?
Not only did the gunmen get in, they got out. How did that happen?
What inefficiencies will be imposed to improve physical security of important people and to keep information under tighter control Picture a Zoom meeting of nuclear scientists.
I can picture a lot of Iranian engineering grad students changing their majors to Persian Literature.
It's the second order effects that are the big deal here.

Anonymous said...

I can picture a lot of Iranian engineering grad students changing their majors to Persian Literature.
It's the second order effects that are the big deal here.


I agree in general but not in specifics.

None of the Iranian grad students I met, though admittedly they were from the previous Western elite in the 70's, would have wasted their education on Persian literature, though a a fine topic. Moving from nuclear engineering to ChemE and specializing in Petro or desalinization, would have been their move.

BUMBLE BEE said...

Yipeee Kiyaaaay Motherfucker!

mccullough said...

Saudi Arabia is the top foreign supplier of oil to China. Russia is second.

Iran is ninth.

NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...

"The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh may not much have impact on the Iranian nuclear programme he helped build..."
.
.
.
The Guardian reports.


Should read "The Guardian fervently prays".

Drago said...

Howard: "Go back to the archives Drago. I applauded the vaporization of Suileman."

Sure you did.

How much did your GoFundMe for Soleimani raise in the end?

BTW, here is one of your "supportive" comments after the vaporization of Soleimani:

Howard: "Okay so now you people are saying that starting a war with Iran will be good. You now support more adventurous endless war. I thought the attack on the Iranian general was to prevent War, at least that's what Dear Leaderhosen said."
1/5/20, 3:02 PM

Note: Its often difficult for our resident lefties like Howard and LLR-lefty C**** to remember their previous disingenuous positions taken for political advantage.

Note note: I am perfectly willing to accept that Howard truly did support whacking Soleimani, and in fact, I do believe that. What the record shows however is that despite what I think was Howard's support for that action, he still couldn't bring himself to make that support clear and instead used it to attack Trump.

And that tells us something too, doesn't it?

Drago said...

mccullough: "Saudi Arabia is the top foreign supplier of oil to China. Russia is second.

Iran is ninth."

Well, yeah. That's probably because Russia and Saudi Arabia are numbers 2 and 3 in total oil production (the US is number 1 even though the lefties/LLR-lefties/democraticals told us that was impossible for about 50 years) and Iran is closer to about 7th or so, well behind China itself.

Iran's oil production is less than 1/4th that of Saudi Arabia and about 1/5th of Russia's oil production.

So yeah, the 7th or so biggest producer is likely to provide less to one of the top 2 major consumers of oil than the biggest producers.

mockturtle said...

If you look at any country that overthrew Capitalism and nationalized its industries you will see a political elite living large and a poverty-stricken populace. BTW, whatever happened to Hugo Chavez's daughter and those billions of dollars?

mikee said...

In grad school in the early 1980s I knew an Iranian, son of an Air Force officer who got his family out right after 1979. He was studying Business, I think, but more to learn about the US than as a career move. His roomie said the guy was OK, except that he always seemed ready to kill anybody who crossed him at any time. Intense person. Great mustache.

Iran will not retaliate in a massive way while Trump is in office, because they know he would use a serious attack against US or our allies to set the Iranian government back a few decades in the average age of Iranian leaders. I expect as soon as Joe Dementia is inaugurated, Iran will demand some form of repayment for the insult and outrages Trump inflicted upon them, and will emphasize their requirement by killing a lot of other people, with the payments, or removal of sanctions, or both, necessary before the killing stops.

We need not discuss how China will test the new president, because we all know he is owned outright by Xi's government.

Roughcoat said...

Sure, why not.

Roughcoat said...

"BTW, whatever happened to Hugo Chavez's daughter and those billions of dollars?"

Daniel Ortega, the Castros, and the Arafats also made out like bandits.

Which they were.

bbear said...

The Grauniad is a left-wing, Corbynist, anti-Jewish, anti-Israel British newspaper. Anything they publish about the Middle East should be regarded with that in mind.

Mike of Snoqualmie said...

China won't test China Joe. It will just tell Joe the potted plant what to do and he'll do it.

Michael said...

John Brennan came out against this strike. If you can't trust the judgement of learned experts such as him, who do you plan on trusting?

mockturtle said...

My 1:29 post is in the wrong thread. :-(

J. Farmer said...

@Howard:

J Farmer: What do you think of this specific incident? Nothing Burger, disaster, victory for peace loving people?

Much closer to nothing burger than a disaster. The strike was meant to do exactly what Netanyahu has been attempting to do from the beginning: scuttle any deal with Iran that does not have as a stipulation Iran's unilateral disarmament and surrender. He was doing the same thing he was doing when the US Congress rolled out the red carpet for him in 2015 and showered him with applause in the most embarrassingly obsequious way imaginable as he undermined a sitting American president's diplomatic efforts. If we're going to talk about foreign interference in American politics, nothing Russia has done even holds a candle to that. A tiny client-state massively dependent on our support lecturing us, a continental superpower, about our policy in a strategically important part of the globe is a national humiliation. It is a sign of how much self-respect we've lost as a nation that it is not considered as such and is even cheered on and celebrated by a sizable faction of Americans.

I believe, as I always have, in America First. American foreign policy in the middle east should serve American security and commercial interests. If the Israelis find themselves in a bad neighborhood, that's their problem. The US needs to do with Iran exactly what we did with China and with Vietnam. Get over that we don't like their governments, and reestablish normal diplomatic relations.

tommyesq said...

Until now, Iran has been measured in its responses, both to Suleimani’s killing and to the waves of sanctions imposed by the Trump administration in the wake of the JCPOA withdrawal.

I believe their "measured" response to the Suleimani killing was more driven by its embarrassment at shooting down its own airliner than in any thoughts about the nuclear deal.

Earnest Prole said...

Wait, you mean to tell me a lame-duck Administration took actions intended to queer things for an incoming Administration?

Well cry me a fucking river.

Joe Smith said...

Not surprising, John Brennan was all broken up about it.

Roughcoat said...

Farmer: Massive oversimplfication of a complex set, or sets, of circumstances. At the risk of committing the fallacy of argumentum ab auctoritate, I will say that I have some experience in this area (literally and figuratively), mostly with the Assyrian Christians of Iraq but tangentially with the Israelis. Dealing with the peoples and nations of the Middle East puts one in mind of "Dune": there are wheels within wheels within wheels. It was for good reason that Herbert was inspired in the writing (some would argue plagiarization) of his novel on Lesley Blanch's "Sabres of Paradise", an historical account to the Russo-Circassian War and the Murid War (collectively, the Caucasian War of 1817-1864).

As for Bibi's behavior: He's a Sabra, they're all that way. And I say that with love. I like Bibi.

The Gipper Lives said...

Brennan was Station Chief when the Iranians somehow successfully bombed Khobar Towers right under his nose, killing our airmen. But he's not mourning them today--just the top Iranian bomb-maker.

In 2008, private citizen Brennan broke into the State Dept's computers 3 times to access Obama’s birth certificate. Eventually that was parlayed into a Directorship. As soon as Obama was safely reelected, Obama dropped all pretense and began working full time to give power, money, influence, anti-aircraft systems, uranium and nukes to the Ayatollah. This is the main reason Obama ran for president in the first place. Brennan was installed as CIA Director at this time.

They took out Khaddaffi and Mubarak and tried to take out Assad with their CIA-trained ISIL army. These countries were to be gifts to the Ayatollah, establishing a Shia-led Caliphate from Tehran to Tripoli and Washington to Waziristan.

Brennan even broke into the Senate’s computers and threatened to jail Feinstein’s staffers when they said something. And that’s how he treats his FRIENDS!

He now lectures us on Separation of Powers and "kakistocracies" while his public pronouncements are indistinguishable from the Iranian Foreign Ministry's.

Howard said...

Thanks J Farmer. I don't think the Iranian government is as sane or as forgiving as the ChiComs and Vietnam. Also, Israel has had an unusual hold over US policy for a very long time. We did nothing after they attacked the USS Liberty. No one wants to be labeled anti-semitic.

I'm Full of Soup said...

If polled, I bet most Americans dgaf about this killing.

Howard said...

Thanks Drago. I'm glad you waisted your time on a Sabado Trade searching the archives to cherry pick a quote. Very Chuck-esque. Lololololololololololololololololo

Michael K said...

Blogger Howard said...
Thanks J Farmer. I don't think the Iranian government is as sane or as forgiving as the ChiComs and Vietnam.


Or your Democrats who seem almost Iranian in insanity. But, it's OK. We know that AOC and Omar are your future.

Mike of Snoqualmie said...

Trump has been applying the anaconda strategy to Iran - strangle it. That's the same strategy the North used on the South. Trade sanctions, small, but decisive attacks, embargoes. John Brennan, Iranophile, would parachute $1billions on them and destroy Israel and the Gulf states.

Bunkypotatohead said...

That was a "report"? Almost every sentence was a supposition or a hypothetical. Does the guardian ever publish any facts?

J. Farmer said...

@Roughcoat:

Farmer: Massive oversimplfication of a complex set, or sets, of circumstances

Fair enough. I only wrote two small paragraphs on the subject ;)

@Howard:

Thanks J Farmer. I don't think the Iranian government is as sane or as forgiving as the ChiComs and Vietnam. Also, Israel has had an unusual hold over US policy for a very long time. We did nothing after they attacked the USS Liberty. No one wants to be labeled anti-semitic.

It's a cliché of American interventionist policy that adversaries are regarded as irrational madmen. This claim was made frequently about Saddam Hussein and has been made frequently about Iranian and North Korean regimes. This claim is often invoked to counter arguments for deterrence and containment. If you point out that deterrence and containment were successful strategies against the Soviets, they will respond that while the Soviets were coldly calculating and rational, adversary X is irrational and cannot be deterred or contained by conventional means. In other words, they are not motivated by self-preservation and are effectively suicidal. But that raises an obvious question: if these regimes are indeed irrational and cannot be contained by conventional deterrence, what has contained them hitherto?

Iman said...

Q: what challenge did Fakhrizadeh find awaiting him when he arrived in his paradise later that night?

A: 72 Ghotzbatehnextdeh

narciso said...

why was he at damavand, that was a nuclear facility that was revealed in 2013, he was revolutionary guard, before he was military, had someone capped aq khan, forty years ago, when he was a utrecht, we would have less of a problem, in mary louise kelly's roman a clef, which features a brennan type character, there is a pakistani scientists trained in cambridge who is devising a nuclear weapon, to smuggle into the states (one interesting detail, you can hide
radiation signatures, with bananas to a point,

Matthew Heintz said...

"when he takes office Jan. 20th" ain't gonna happen, guaranteed. Or my dick isn't 12 inches long.

Steven said...

So, why, exactly, are these news outlets characterizing a brigadier general of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps as "a scientist"?

Oh, that's right, because they are enemy propagandists.

That a brigadier general is in charge of Iran's nuclear program tells you exactly how peaceful it is, by the way.

Howard said...

J Farmer: Thanks, you're right that the crazy excuse is overblow and used too widely. Saddam was evil but not a crazy religious nut job. NK is starving it's own people, also I don't see them having any interest in opening up to the West. Besides, they are technically still at war with the South. I think crazy fits there. Besides, they are China's problem

Iran's government is not as crazy as the Norms, but is controlled by islamic clerics and located near our oil in SA. Also, they are an existential threat to Israel and shouldn't be allowed to produce nuclear weapons.

JCPOA going forward needs to include Israel.

Michael K said...

In other words, they are not motivated by self-preservation and are effectively suicidal. But that raises an obvious question: if these regimes are indeed irrational and cannot be contained by conventional deterrence, what has contained them hitherto?

Anticipation of killing all the Jews at one time ? The mullahs of the Shia are talking all the time about suicide. Why are you so doctrinaire?

5M - Eckstine said...

Maybe the important question to Kamala Harris on her first day in office would be "Who would you like to assassinate ?"


She if she orders domestic or foreign?

5M - Eckstine said...

The Iranians I knew in college disappointed me. American haters. Or homework and project stealers. Didn't want to do their own work. It did appear to be a cultural thing.

There was just one that was a good guy.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

"Until now, Iran has been measured in its responses, both to Suleimani’s killing and to the waves of sanctions imposed by the Trump administration in the wake of the JCPOA withdrawal"

Ah Guardian, never change

Massive State sponsor of terrorism is "measured" in its responses? Um, no, TRUMP was (perhaps overly) measured in his response to Iran's terrorism

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Richard Aubrey said...
Iran doesn't need a mash-up of Oppenheimer and Einstein. They need a good scientist with good executive skills. IOW, this guy can be replaced.

No.

Iran needs a good Muslim scientist with good executive skills. That's a VERY small pool of people.

"Inshallah", is an Arabic language expression meaning "if God wills" or "God willing".

It's like "mañana", but without the urgency.

There are Muslims with good executive skills. But there aren't many. Pile "good nuclear scientist / engineer" on top of that?

Iran is going to have a hard time replacing him

William said...

There will be unintended consequences. There are always unintended consequences. Things haven't worked out particularly well for us, but if you want to contemplate true disasters, observe Iraq, Libya, and Syria. The plans of Saddam, Qaddaffi, and Assad gang aft agley. The Iranians will undoubtedly look upon all those neighbor states in ruination and say "hold my hookah". I can see the mullahs doing something mega stupid that will be bad for us or Israel but Dresden level awful for them.

J. Farmer said...

Anticipation of killing all the Jews at one time ? The mullahs of the Shia are talking all the time about suicide. Why are you so doctrinaire?

I think it's kind of bizarre that you write those two sentences and then accuse me of being doctrinaire.

If anything is doctrinaire, it's the caricatured view many seem to possess that depicts Iran has some kind of uniquely menacing or malevolent force in the region. All of the states in the region commit and sponsor terrorism. It was the Sunni Arab states sponsoring jihadists in Syria that helped create ISIS. More recently, Saudi Arabia has been empowering Salafi jihadist forces in Yemen for the last five years.

Iran is a theocratic country. The Saudi royal family's legitimacy is theologically derived and is in a politico-religious alliance with the Salafi sect. Bahrain has been attempting for years to demographically erase its Shiite majority. Internally, Iran is a freer and more open society than Saudi Arabia. If Iran's behavior is to be understood in terms of theological zealotry, then what explains their relations with China, Russia, and India?

As much as we've obsessed about Iran, what has been the most destabilizing events in the region in the last two decades? The first was the overthrow of Hussein, then the funding and arming of of Sunni insurgents in Syria, and then the war on Yemen. And all of these events were created by the US or our Sunni Arab "partners" in the region.

wendybar said...

They just have to wait....With John Kerry on board, the Iranians can have and do whatever they want....

J. Farmer said...

The mullahs know that they have to only hold their fire until the 3rd week of January, then they get what they want, for free.

They just have to wait....With John Kerry on board, the Iranians can have and do whatever they want....

What exactly did Iran stop doing for the past 4 years that is supposedly going to resume come January 20th?

stevew said...

"Spoiler" eh?

Don said...

President Bidet will fail miserably in the Middle East

West Texas Intermediate Crude said...

What exactly did Iran stop doing for the past 4 years that is supposedly going to resume come January 20th?
A fair question from J Farmer at 0609.
They will have the resources to put their nuke development program back into high gear.
They will have more money to spend on the program, as oil prices climb from the limitations on fracking that the Biden administration will put in place.
They will have more money due to increased trading with European nations that pulled back from them under Trump admin sanctions.
They will have access to German and other European engineering expertise that they lost due to Trump admin sanctions.
They will have increased access to American education to train their own budding scientists.
Their own scientists will feel freer to work and develop new technology with less fear of being visited by assassins.
The don't have to defeat their enemies. Leftists in America did it for them, without them spending a dime or firing a shot.

Michael K said...

I think it's kind of bizarre that you write those two sentences and then accuse me of being doctrinaire.

Says the bizarre one. Reading about Shia Islam would help. Do you know that mosque attendance in the non-mullah population is 2%? The leadership, like the Soviets, is corrupt but the top is still doctrinaire, as you put it.

J. Farmer said...

@West Texas Intermediate Crude:

They will have the resources to put their nuke development program back into high gear.

Iran has already demonstrated it possesses the resources, despite US sanctions, to increase its nuclear program. The sanctions the US and EU has on Iran's missile development program were never lifted, but Iran has nonetheless been able to expand its missile capabilities.

J. Farmer said...

@Michael K:

Do you know that mosque attendance in the non-mullah population is 2%? The leadership, like the Soviets, is corrupt but the top is still doctrinaire, as you put it.

Doctrinaire was your word. Attending Friday congregational prayer is not necessarily a proxy for religiosity, and the issue of mosque attendance and the politicization of Islam in Iran has been well discussed, even if not necessarily by David P. Goldman or Reuel Marc Gerecht. However, I'll grant that survey evidence (unsurprisingly) indicates increasing secularization among Iranian citizens. However, what does this have to do with anything I've argued?

Robert Cook said...

Leave it to the Biden globalists to view a successful strike against the war making capacity of Iran as a weakness and a reason to bend the knee further to accommodate this enemy of America. “

How would you react if another nation assassinated a high-ranking US nuclear scientist? Would you see it as a justifiable strike against our formidable war making capacity, or as murder and an act of war?

West Texas Intermediate Crude said...

R Cook-
Destroying an enemy resource, human or inanimate, during war is an act of war, the objective of war. It is not, however, murder. Is the USA at war with Iran? The Iranian mullahs acts as if we are, and have committed multiple acts of war against the USA, starting with the embassy invasion during the Carter Administration. The USA has not formally declared war on Iran, but is justified in committing any act of war it feels is appropriate retaliation to discourage further warlike acts. If Iran kills another American anywhere, appropriate retaliation should be swift, overwhelming and convincing so that Iran does not consider repeating its mistake. It should not be proportionate, it should be punishing and severe.

Robert Cook said...

Texas Crude; your answer is insane.

We are not at war with Iran, at least not overtly, and they are not at war with us. Moreover, there has been no suggestion that the US killed the nuclear scientist. Do you know something no one else does?

Also, what Americans has Iran killed?

Assassinations by agents of one nation of agents or officials of another nation not at war with each other is murder.