October 31, 2020

Ahem... Arizona...


84 comments:

Michael K said...

Whoops !

mikee said...

Polls now reporting something resembling reality? Well OK then.

Meade said...

While polling as a Democrat, what, to my surprise,
An Orange Man Bad was following me, about two-thirds my size.
The guy must have wanted to pass me up
As he kept on tooting his horn. Beep! Beep!
I'll show him that this Sleepy Joe is not a Dem to scorn.

Beep, beep. (Beep, beep.)
Beep, beep. (Beep, beep.)
His horn went, beep, beep, beep. (Beep! Beep!).

Louie the Looper said...

I think the “shy” or lying Trump people believe the coast is clear, and they are coming out.

Ann Althouse said...

Real Clear Politics URL for the details on that graph: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_biden-6807.html

Phil 314 said...

Speaking as a citizen of Arizona I can only exclaim:

“Holy shit!”

Meade said...

(Sorry, my parody is just for oldsters over 65.)

Marshall Rose said...

Propaganda polls of the last few months are now being aligned with reality so that narrative creating polling outfits dont destroy their plausible deniability and therefore future ability to sell their product.

Public polls are a tool to influence, not used to inform.

chuck said...

Boo!

Leland said...

Stolen, gone in 60 seconds.

hombre said...

Maybe the transplanted Californians haven’t gotten us yet. Or maybe they’ve seen the light.

Original Mike said...

Blogger Meade said..."(Sorry, my parody is just for oldsters over 65.)"

Does 64 and 51 weeks count?

Political Junkie said...

I hope it plays out that way.

tcrosse said...

(Sorry, my parody is just for oldsters over 65.)

Buddy, how do I get this thing out of second gear?

Scotty, beam me up... said...

Hey, Meade! I figured you were parodying “Little Nash Rambler” halfway through your post and I am under 65 (though only by 5 years). I love that song, especially since both my vehicles are stick shifts. Driving a stick shift car is a dying art. Thanks for the laugh.

Wince said...

Now that's an "inflection point"!

DavidUW said...

Watch Nevada.
Biden underperforming Clark County.

Hilary won by 27k votes. 82k in Clark County. 3k in Washoe County. So she needed 85k votes to win by 27k, meaning the rest of the state was net 55k for Trump.

Biden is currently ahead by 76k, and 3k in Washoe, but there are also 63k more unaffiliated votes in. Most of those break republican. There are another 15k additional unaffiliated votes from rural nevada. Those definitely break Republican.
It's quite possible that Trump is behind by only 15k or fewer votes right now.


gilbar said...

isn't it Weird, that polls will say one thing (democrat LANDSLIDE!!!), for a Long time
Then!
a little before the election, things change! and the democrat strength disappears!!!

i am 58 years old, and i can NOT remember a single election, where the polls (in August) didn't show a democrat Landslide!!
The closest i can remember, to a democrat Landslide actually taking place, was 2008
where O'Bama won 52% of the popular vote, and 365 electorial votes
weird huh?
i don't remember 1964, i guess it WAS a landslide!

times since 1965, that a democrat ACTUALLY got a majority of the popular vote
1976 Jimmy Carter 50.1% (as close to NOT having a majority as you can get?)
2008 Barry O'Bama 52.9% (that's right! neither BJ Clinton or Al Gore ever broke 50%)
2012 Barry O'Bama 51.1%
that's it! even Hilary! never broke 50% (she got 48.2%)

WHAT HAPPENS TO THE AUGUST DEMOCRAT LANDSLIDES?

ColoComment said...

Meade said...
(Sorry, my parody is just for oldsters over 65.)
10/31/20, 10:02 AM


Yup. "The Little Nash Rambler" I used to sing along with The Playmates, in the Chevy Bel Air, (turquoise & white), with the five chrome push buttons on the radio. In Detroit, probably WXYZ radio.
https://youtu.be/enqNl7tdLR4

Francisco D said...

Here in suburban Tucson, there is no clear enthusiasm for the POTUS election. Most of the signs you see are for local races.

I have very little faith in the polls here because a lot of people don't answer their phones. If I had to guess, I would predict that loyal life long Democrats and SWs will turn out for Biden. I really don't see Indepndents going for Biden. I think Trump takes Arizona.

The real question is the senate. Mark "the weasel" Kelly has a ton of money and seems to be the favorite over a lackluster Martha McSally. The AZ GOP has ro do a lot better job in candidate recruitment.

Achilles said...

40 states.

Stupid people believe the NYT and WAPO and the rest.

You waste your time reading and commenting on them. You only need to read one of them to see what they are being told to say by their owners.

They are "trashy."

tim maguire said...

Some polls are consistently on the Dem side of the range, while others are consistently on the Rep side. So a lot of the short-term momentum is more about which polls reported today than about who is having a good week.

DavidUW said...

Currently in WI:
if the targetearly (a democrat operation) is correct:

Rural vote: +380k over 2016 mail in
urban vote: +155k over 2016 mail in

Trump will have to get absolutely smoked in the burbs to lose WI.

bagoh20 said...

This last minute change to the polls happens every time and in the same direction, so I don't think it's voters changing. It's just polls changing how they do what they do, which apparently consists of giving the Democrats confidence during the run up, but you can't do it next time if your credibility is shot, so you fix it just before the election to pretend you are accurate.

Remember that in October 2016 Hillary had a 91% chance of victory, and Trump only 9% - "experts".

tcrosse said...

Some of this prognostication assumes that registered Democrats will vote for Biden. It ain't necessarily so.

Lars Porsena said...

@ Meade beep beep..now that damn song will be playing in my head all day:-)

Jersey Fled said...

Propaganda polls of the last few months are now being aligned with reality so that narrative creating polling outfits dont destroy their plausible deniability and therefore future ability to sell their product.

I don't believe the polls will narrow as much as they usually do. I believe that the Left wants to maintain the narrative that Trump stole the election based on ... wait for it THE POLLS!

Its a win-win. The polls were of course correct. It was the election that was wrong.

The Resistance lives on!

Big Mike said...

Some people are writing about turning Texas blue. This morning I came across an article that argues Trump may flip California. This election is sure bringing out the creativity in writers! My eyes are on Oregon. Eastern Oregon has been fed up with the crazy people in the western, urban, half of the state for many years. Have enough people in the western side passed their fed up point over Antifa and riots and looting and violence to flip the state? We shall see.

I always assumed Trump would win Arizona. But can he drag Martha McSally across the finish line? That’s the key.

Ice Nine said...

>>Blogger Meade said...
(Sorry, my parody is just for oldsters over 65.)<<

It was a good one, Meade.

That song used to drive my dad crazy...as I played it over and over on my "record player."

Big Mike said...

@Meade, yes, at 73 I remember the song from the halcyon days of my youth. Also caught the hints of the Roadrunner versus Wiley Coyote.

Unknown said...

Arizona, take off your rainbow shades
Have another look at the world, my, my

Paul Revere & The Raiders

mockturtle said...

As an AZ I voted [Trump, of course] prior to October 25 and I suspect many others, including Biden voters, did, as well. Hope we hang onto our Senate seat, too. The Dems have obviously spend zillions on Mark Kelly's campaign. And McSally, God bless her, doesn't seem to know how to run an effective campaign. I didn't see even ONE AD where she brings up Kelly's stand on gun control. Here in AZ, that's Yuuuuge!

Political Junkie said...

I remember the 2018 Senate Arizona race and worry Pres raise might be the same. The R has a nice lead and then bam, 50k votes pop up from an urban or college area.

Also - Sorry somewhat off topic - Montana - Can Bullock win that if Trump wins the state by 10. Conversely, can Collins win Maine if Trump loses by 10.

I am a worrier - In 2016 Hillary took for granted the Midwest and it cost her. I worry GA might bite the R's in the rear for Pres and 2 senate seats!!

Appears O and Holder have a strong plan to turn out the black vote.

Political Junkie said...

DavidUW...Agree. I posted here a while back speculating Trump might have a better 2020 shot at Nevada than Arizona. We shall see.

Achilles said...

tim maguire said...

Some polls are consistently on the Dem side of the range, while others are consistently on the Rep side. So a lot of the short-term momentum is more about which polls reported today than about who is having a good week.

Futures Positions and Spot Price always come together in the end.

Which way they go is where the money is made.

mockturtle said...

What I would love to see is Pelosi and Waters both voted out. Oh, that would be sweet!

Michael K said...

The real question is the senate. Mark "the weasel" Kelly has a ton of money and seems to be the favorite over a lackluster Martha McSally. The AZ GOP has ro do a lot better job in candidate recruitment.

Yeah, I worry about that. Maybe this weekend's story about him trying get his ex-wife arrested will help.

Arizona Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly made an odd request years after his 2004 divorce: The famed astronaut petitioned a Texas court in 2010 to sentence his ex-wife to 6 months in jail and 10 years of supervised release after she moved to a new town a few miles outside of their children’s school district.

The court records from Galveston County, Texas—which include recriminations from both sides and detail a lengthy custody dispute—show that Kelly claimed his ex-wife Amy’s move was a violation of their custody agreement.

The documents, which include a temporary restraining order issued against Kelly in 2004, appear to contradict his description of the divorce as "amicable" in his 2011 autobiography. The order was never served, according to Kelly's campaign.


Of course, he is the California candidate in the AZ race.

Milo Minderbinder said...

Gosh, it's almost as if pollsters have been just kidding us all along. Why would they do that?

Fernandinande said...

SONG OF ARIZONA, starring "the smartest horse in the movies" and Roy Rogers. Filmed at the Iverson Ranch in Los Angeles for your convenience.

JAORE said...

Imagine if the Hunter Biden computer was out earlier. Imagine if there's no early voting. It's easy if you try...
- John Lennon (?)

I am cautiously optimistic of a red wave. I am pretty sure of a wave of "stolen" election op-ed/news reports if that happens. I am bet-the-farm sure that there will be massive rioting in D run cities in the aftermath.

Pianoman said...

And another Preference Cascade shows up.

Are the Shy Trump Voters speaking out? Maybe.

NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...

mockturtle said...

The Dems have obviously spend zillions on Mark Kelly's campaign. And McSally, God bless her, doesn't seem to know how to run an effective campaign. I didn't see even ONE AD where she brings up Kelly's stand on gun control. Here in AZ, that's Yuuuuge!

Also no push back on Kelly's "I was a Navy fighter pilot!" ads. Which was weird since McSally was a USAF fighter pilot and wasn't an astronaut, but Kelly never really harped on his NASA career. Really odd campaign here.

Derek Kite said...

The change happened when the electorate looked and came to the realization that Biden as manufactured had no resemblance to Biden in the flesh.

pacwest said...

Your best chance of controlling people is a message of fear. A Dark Winter if you will. It's hard to control people who have a vision of self destiny.

Divergent roads to our nation's future.

JAORE said...

His horn went, beep, beep, beep. (Beep! Beep!).

Actually his horn went beep, beefwantlerglobeep.

pacwest said...

Democray Dies in Darkness. Biden wants you know we are about to enter a period of great darkness if he is elected. It is at the center of his campaign. And he is leading in the polls. It's almost as if the Devil is wrestling against the light for control of America's soul.

khematite said...

Ann Althouse said...
Real Clear Politics URL for the details on that graph: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/az/arizona_trump_vs_biden-6807.html

Fits pretty closely with what NBC News' Early Voting Results website tells us today. This is not a poll (ignore the list of third-party poll reports at the top of the page and scroll down to "Early Voting in Arizona"). This has provided us a daily report on the numbers, by party registration, of the actual ballots cast. A week ago, Democrats led in the mail-in and early in-person voting by 10 points (43%D-33%R). Today, the Democratic lead is down to just one point (38%D-37%R)--about a 43,000 vote lead. And that's before we add in the results of about a million more votes that will be cast on Election Day.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/arizona-results

stutefish said...

I'm working on an "inversion theory" of media headlines. It's not original to me, but I've only seen it in a single reddit post that didn't develop the idea. It stuck with me though. It goes something like:

Say the NYT wants you to come along with them. You might naively assume they're going to publish headlines inviting you to come along with them. But no, instead they publish headlines about how people are going in the opposite direction.

The NYT doesn't want to reassure you that Biden is gonna win. They don't want you believing in the likelihood of a Biden landslide. They want you to vote for Biden. I see these headlines not as preparing hearts and minds for a Trump win. I seem them as getting out the vote for Biden.

This Person said...

Marshall Rose said...

Propaganda polls of the last few months are now being aligned with reality so that narrative creating polling outfits don't destroy their plausible deniability and therefore future ability to sell their product.

Public polls are a tool to influence, not used to inform.

10/31/20, 10:03 AM

+1

Churchy LaFemme: said...

Driving a stick shift car is a dying art. Thanks for the laugh.

Last time I took my 5-speed Camry through the wash, neither the kid pulling it onto the line, nor the kid pulling it off could do it. First kid had to get the manager; I did it for the second.

Never had that happen before!

Mike of Snoqualmie said...

And Texas is going to go to Biden! Not! Always-Trumpers trolling the Biden Bus and getting under their skin.

Static Ping said...

To be honest, I was very dubious of the polls before. Now that these polls are telling me what I want to hear, I am still dubious. It is like talking to the crazy guy on the street corner; whether he agrees with you or not is not indicative of the truth.

Narr said...

Speaking of push-buttons, my friend Bobby's dad let us practice driving in their little Nash, with push-button transmission up on the dash.

IIRC.

I see a lot more B&H yardsigns than T&P, FWIW, but I live in the D-voting big city; I haven't been outside the loop to any extent in months.


Narr
Or Hack and Wack v Clodman and Plodboy as I like to think of them

SteveSc said...

My Arizona is quite fully Californicated....

mockturtle said...

Pacwest suggests: It's almost as if the Devil is wrestling against the light for control of America's soul.

Almost as if???

mockturtle said...

Narr reports: I see a lot more B&H yard signs than T&P, FWIW, but I live in the D-voting big city; I haven't been outside the loop to any extent in months.

On my morning walkies with my dog, about two miles of residential blocks, there is only one Biden-Harris sign. But there are probably thirty to forty Trump-Pence signs.

Original Mike said...

"Last time I took my 5-speed Camry through the wash, neither the kid pulling it onto the line, nor the kid pulling it off could do it. First kid had to get the manager; I did it for the second."

Took my manual pickup to the car wash and walked to the exit to retrieve it. Three/four guys were pushing it out because none of them could drive it.

Manual transmissions as theft deterrent really does seem to be a thing.

Bruce Hayden said...

“ Always-Trumpers trolling the Biden Bus and getting under their skin.”

That was hilarious, esp after put to music in a Tic Toc video. 4-3-2-1-Go!!! For those who haven’t see them, there are a bunch of videos of the BidenHarris bus being escorted to the airport by an army of vehicles, mostly pickups, flying American and Trump flags. It was almost as if te Dem candidate were unwelcome in the Line Star State.

What is really interesting is that the Dems put rallies with very small and carefully selected crowds, and are instantaneously mobbed by Trump supporters. They are now not announcing the location of their mini rallies around the country, even to the press, because they know that they know that they will be mobbed, if they give Trump’s supporters any time whatsoever to organize. Not mobbed n a bad way, of course, but by a lot of exuberant honking and flag waving.

Any one predicting a Dem landslide is not facing this reality. Trump’s supporters are really fired up this time, and theirs are not. Moreover, they have failed at their attempt to “other” Trump and his supporters. Everyone knows, deep down, that Trump has the momentum right now. You don’t get that type of enthusiasm when you expect your candidate to lose.

RMc said...

I'm pretty sure pointing this out makes you a racist, Ann. (Please report to your local Truth and Reconciliation Board after Biden wins.)

Bruce Hayden said...

My quasi on the ground reporting is that Trump seems to have the momentum here (now) in AZ. Haven’t seen a single Biden bumper sticker. There are some signs out, but are all absolutely identical, and appear to have been put up, around here, a week or two ago, en mass. They may be lined up uniformly every 100 feet or so down the median. Then Trump signs started popping up. Different designs, but the predominant one is about twice the size of the Biden/Harris ones, and a number have been put up right in front of the latter, completely obscuring them. Also, you find them on most of the section (PHX is set up on a grid with major streets along the section lines) intersections, mixed in with the local political signs. (No pro-Kelly signs, and a lot of anti-Kelly ones - but his TV ads are still overwhelming).

Have a red Keep America Great hat in the front windshield (only actually wear it when visiting Dem in-laws). Nothing adverse yet, and some positive reinforcement.

RK said...

I live in Madison, Wisconsin, and I have not seen a single Trump lawn sign. So I'm pretty dang Madisonian sure that Biden is going to win in a landslide.

320Busdriver said...

Professor Allan Lichtman’s system of 13 keys has correctly predicted each election since 1984. Today his system tells us the incumbent will lose.. God I hope he is wrong.

https://www.lichtman2020.com/

dustbunny said...

Meade, I thought it was about the Roadrunner!

StephenFearby said...

I take this AA post as virtue-signaling...indicating that she hopes the latest RCP Arizona poll may predict the outcome of that state's election results. A position consistent with refusing to drink the Kool-Aid of political correctness spawned by the Left.

Or, maybe she's still only a cruel neutrality observer.

As Freud famously said, "Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar."

iowan2 said...

Marshall Rose said...

Propaganda polls of the last few months are now being aligned with reality so that narrative creating polling outfits don't destroy their plausible deniability and therefore future ability to sell their product.

Public polls are a tool to influence, not used to inform.


This is very basic truth. Polling is bought and paid for by entities that desire to set a narrative. They are never intended to provide a snapshot of reality.(unless a political campaign is doing "internal polling".) Campaigns, for obvious reasons want to know the real score, and pay for that. The media is always pointing out that campaigns are responding, due to "internal"polls", admitting the polls they(the dnc/media) always analyze are not accurate.
This year is just like 2016, in that, the final polls got "closer" to reality. Mainly so the pollsters could retain the veneer of respectability.

I'm Not Sure said...

"The polls were of course correct. It was the election that was wrong."

This follows the path of climate "science", where the models are correct and it's the data that's wrong.

Big Mike said...

I didn't see even ONE AD where she brings up Kelly's stand on gun control. Here in AZ, that's Yuuuuge!

If McSally is counting on the NRA, with Wayne LaPierre in charge, to get out the pro-Second Amendment vote, she just cost herself the seat. I'm not going to renew my membership and look for some other organization to safeguard my right to self defense.

Phil 314 said...

There seem to be a surprising # of AZ residents who comment on the Althouse blog.

What’s with that!?

Night said...

Is there anyone in the country still waffling on who to vote for? Give that person a bib. And a poll question.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

320Busdriver said...
Professor Allan Lichtman’s system of 13 keys has correctly predicted each election since 1984. Today his system tells us the incumbent will lose.. God I hope he is wrong.

https://www.lichtman2020.com/


1: It's for popular vote, not EC vote.
2: He has this one wrong: 33% growth last quarter means economy is not in a recession

5) Short-term economy:
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign

3: He has this one wrong:
11) Foreign/military success:
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs

Pease deals for Israel and multiple Arab countries are arguably "a major success in foreign or military affairs".

"When five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the popular vote;"
Only 4 or 5 are false. So he's predicting a Trump popular vote victory

narciso said...

when queried further, lichtman, makes his conclusions very subjective, including talking about 'voter suppression' weighing the impeachment as real, and so on,

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Political Junkie said...
Appears O and Holder have a strong plan to turn out the black vote.

If so, so far it's a failure. In both NC and Georgia black turnout in early voting is under their registration %. In NC (I don't have GA numbers) their 2020 early vote turnout is about 3% under their 2016 early vote turnout, which is down a bunch from the 2012 early vote turnout.

In both States there's significant growth in the "white" turnout, and a drop in the 18-24 turnout.

IMAO the story of this election is going to be that the WWC turned out in droves, and voted straight ticket GOP.

NC, GA, OH, IA, PA, MI, WI, NH, MN, and VA all will be seriously affected. I put the last 3 in decreasing order of my expectation that these States will flip to Trump because of that

But I firmly expect Biden will lose, and the Left will go nuts.

Narayanan said...

what happens with the Popular Vote Compact in those states if Trump wins the (national) popular vote but Biden wins the local popular vote = State?

I suspect our very stable genius has been scheming for double-play = EC win + popular vote win

Political Junkie said...

Greg - I hope you are correct, amigo.

OSU '92 said...

The RCP graph for Iowa just flipped to Trump and is now looking like Arizona. Something’s happening here. But what it is ain’t exactly clear.

What I do know is that there are a lot of Democrats out there who are in for a nasty surprise on Tuesday after they have been told by the media it’s Biden in a landslide. Wisconsin by 17 anyone?

320Busdriver said...

I agree that Lichtman probably “ missed” on a couple keys, but he claims a Biden win.
He self identifies as a Democrat and says it’s crucial to leave his own bias out, but my own observation is that there has never been a politician who so readily disarms his detractors of their reason and faculties as PDJT. Even Lichtman may be unable to help himself remain objective. It’s a sickness..

FullMoon said...

Meade said...

(Sorry, my parody is just for oldsters over 65.)


Or,oldies station fan...
Joe's clutch is slippin'.

readering said...

RCP latest has Biden back in front in AZ.

Birkel said...

It was never close.
Biden has been running consistently behind Hillary's pace.
Trump is running ahead of his own 2016 pace.

This has been obvious and I have been typing those facts every day in these comments.
You're welcome.

Birkel said...

Allan Lichtman is wrong on the economic particulars.
And he still has Trump winning 7 of his 13 keys.
So it ought to be at least 9 of 13 for Trulp.

So Mr Lichtman is wrong about his own methodology.

wbfjrr2 said...

I’m in Tucson foothills. In my 17 home enclave, 12Trump, 4 Biden (one has a Trump Putin sign in front, and the imbecile actually believes that) and one Aussie who hates Trump but can’t vote. Trump group is heavily armed, just in case. The gun store I was in yesterday was as busy as I’ve ever seen, and people, almost all unmasked, were buying guns, not just looking. Ammo was severely limited though, even shotgun shells and it’s a big store.

I’m a poll watcher on 11/3, as are some of my neighbors. Our moron mayor has decreed there can no police security at polling sites, even off duty cops. Could be trouble. In the city proper, I saw a number of Biden signs, all near the university. No Trump signs. But outside the city proper, signs for both on the main streets, put out by the party apparatchiks. Trump signs tend to last only a day, if that. Saw one woman attaching Russian flag miniatures to some Trump signs.

On the other hand, I’ve seen “Black Voices for Trump” and Hispanics for Trump signs, which I don’t recall from past election cycles.

McSally is a dud campaigner and a dud Senator, appointed by our moron Governor after she’d just lost to Sinema, to finish John Kyle’s term.

On the other hand, Trump’s coattails carried every GOP senate candidate to victory in states he won in 2016. I think that may save even McSally.

Every liberal friends and family I know has already voted. One is still wearing his I voted sticker every day. A number of my gop friends are waiting to vote in person next week.

LOTS of people from out of state moving in, houses are selling full price, very fast. The guy at inside the numbers believes these are escapees from the blue states who actually strongly support capitalism and Trump. I hope he’s right.

bbkingfish said...

Results of 15 polls of AZ voters announced since Oct 22 in AZ.

Biden up in 10 polls (Between +3 and +9).

Trump up in 2 polls (Trafalgar and Rasmussen by +3 and +4).

3 polls even.

MAGA.

Greg The Class Traitor said...

Narayanan said...
what happens with the Popular Vote Compact in those states if Trump wins the (national) popular vote but Biden wins the local popular vote = State?

The Compact only supposedly kicks in when States with a majority of the EC votes "agree to it".

Of course, even if it passed, the first time it gave a victory to a GOP candidate the lefties would sue to drop it

Greg The Class Traitor said...

320Busdriver said...
I agree that Lichtman probably “ missed” on a couple keys, but he claims a Biden win.

Yes, well, the Recession ended last quarter. So, at the latest the recession ended Sept 30. Given that >90% of the voting has happened after that, his methodology fails if True loses, since Trump has 8, not 7