Althouse: "Oh! The market doesn't like that Biden won the debate!"/"Maybe what the market doesn't like is that all we've got now are 2 idiots."

September 30, 2020

"Oh! The market doesn't like that Biden won the debate!"/"Maybe what the market doesn't like is that all we've got now are 2 idiots."

Overheard at Meadhouse.

81 comments:

tim in vermont said...: The surest way to get the market to nosedive is to create a sense of inevitability around Biden, and the diving market will be used to re-enforce that inevitability. It’s a great strategy.; 9/30/20, 8:05 AM
hombre said...: Trump didn’t win, but Biden, as always, lied about everything expecting the media to cover his ass - starting with Wallace. Still, Trump blew a good opportunity with hubris.; 9/30/20, 8:09 AM
cnnenfreude said...: Them both being idiots might be the only thing this country can agree on.; 9/30/20, 8:09 AM
john said...: I think the case for Joe Rogan moderating a debate got a little stronger.; 9/30/20, 8:09 AM
Qwinn said...: Uh, futures are flat at the moment. Bell hasnt even rung. And who says Biden won? 2/3 of Telemundo viewers disagree, and no one would call Telemundo right wing.; 9/30/20, 8:15 AM
Rory said...: I held my nose and voted for Trump four years ago. After observing him for four years, I'm pretty sure he's not an idiot.; 9/30/20, 8:15 AM
Darrell said...: Oh, you guys!; 9/30/20, 8:15 AM
PB said...: Want a debate? Here's a debate!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=l63SRpGXBHE

Stay tuned for next time. Same bat time, same bat channel!; 9/30/20, 8:16 AM
Wince said...: A Pyrrhic victory?

Yes, to the extent people think Biden won or broke even in the debate -- either in their eyes, or amongst the vast "undecided" -- the reality is sinking-in that Biden could become president and, niceties aside, the issue of which flawed man would you really want to be president for the next four years of unmitigated adversity comes to the fore.

Debate performance and who actually "wins" are two very separate issues.; 9/30/20, 8:16 AM
daskol said...: Bulls v. Bears the last two weeks has been a lot like that debate last night: vicious, seesawing and inconclusive in the outcome. Oh, and scares the ladies.; 9/30/20, 8:17 AM
Kai Akker said...: Overheard at 5 a.m.? 7 a.m.? Look again. Looks UNCH'd as the open looms.; 9/30/20, 8:17 AM
Grant said...: At 9:15 Eastern the futures are down very slightly from zero. Maybe the "market" doesn't know what to think yet.

I checked three local news media websites this morning--two very left, one slightly less left--and the debate wasn't the big item on any of them. On one, Helen Reddy's death got better placement. All three used the term "chaos" in the debate headline. If the media were sure Joe had won, seems like the placement and headlines would be better.; 9/30/20, 8:20 AM
Shouting Thomas said...: Trump forced Biden to begin to define himself and his positions last night.

The hatred between Trump and Biden is very personal. Biden is one of the goons who launched Russia collusion and spying on the Trump campaign, and he did it to cover for his and his son’s bribery schemes in Russia and Ukraine. Trump is going hard at Biden and his son for their schemes.

What did you expect? It must take considerable restraint for these two to resist punching one another in the mouth.; 9/30/20, 8:23 AM
Sprezzatura said...: On yesterday’s show Michael Savage kept repeating his advice to DJT. He warned DJT to not sound abrasive at all. Savage said that the best way to beat Biden was for DJT to be harsh while also coming across as calm and kind.

Savage was worried that being loudly agro w/ Biden would make old people uncomfortable because the old people would (perhaps unconsciously) somewhat connect Biden’s dementia w/ their own slowing, hence DJT would be loudly attacking them.

Anywho, the best part of the show yesterday was Savage retelling the Mike Wallace/meatloaf story. IMHO.; 9/30/20, 8:41 AM
hombre said...: Biden kept looking at the camera with what passed as sincerity and telling us how he would take care of us.

Democrats pandering to the ignorant, stupid and lazy while filling their pockets with graft nauseates me. Biden is going to take care of us? Shit!; 9/30/20, 8:43 AM
Static Ping said...: If the stock market knows how to do anything, it is to panic for no reason. Don't read too much into it. What usually happens is the panicky types lose their money, the non-panicky types profit from the panicky types, and then things go back to normal. Wake me up at the next housing bubble.; 9/30/20, 8:45 AM
I'm Full of Soup said...: Debate structure is all wrong. Each candidate should submit 20-25 questions/issues to his opponent. And they can hash it out. We don't need a moderator like liberal Wallace who takes sides.; 9/30/20, 8:46 AM
Amexpat said...: Just checked and the market is up about.50%. Wouldn't put much stock in that one way or the other.; 9/30/20, 8:47 AM
henge2243 said...: "None of the Above" was the clear winner in last night's 'debate'.; 9/30/20, 8:48 AM
D.D. Driver said...: My contrarian take: both candidates accomplished what they set out to accomplish.

FOR TRUMP: He made race chaotic and ugly. The uglier the race gets, the more people will tune out. It's hard to get people that are completely tuned out to show up to the polls. Trump supporters will show up. The Anti-Trump people will show up. But will anyone else? My gut says "a pox on both of your houses" hurts Biden more than Trump.

FOR BIDEN: The bar is sooo low. All he had to do was show that he could withstand an hour and a half without a nap and that he is not going let the socialist wing of the Democrat party take over the country. We'll see if denouncing Bernie Sanders helps Biden more in the middle than hurts him on the left. Time will tell.; 9/30/20, 8:51 AM
wild chicken said...: Mr Market will be fine. It goes up, it goes down. Then up. Then down.

SP up half a point right now. Short covering; will probably drop later.

Or not.; 9/30/20, 8:52 AM
Lash LaRue said...: Dow is up 226 at 9:52 a.m.; 9/30/20, 8:53 AM
Mark O said...: One of those "idiots" demonstrably plotted a coup against an incoming administration. As Trump said last night, "We caught you."
Wallace created the environment for the fiasco by immediately losing control. After that, both played by the rules of the free market debate.

Trump's success far outpaces Biden's 47 years of nothing. Yet, 3 Supreme Court Justices and 3 Nobel nominations, as well as positivity in the Mideast can be washed away with "incivility."

At least we now know that Biden is a uncivil as Trump.; 9/30/20, 8:55 AM
Oso Negro said...: Green New Deal! Masks forever! Racial discord! More government jobs!; 9/30/20, 8:56 AM
Big Mike said...: Andrew Sullivan thinks Trump dominated, and he is not a Trump supporter. Perhaps it’s a question of expectations. Biden didn’t have a breakdown on stage. He didn’t drool. He didn’t overflow his Depends. Trump came across as domineering and he missed opportunities to be professorial. Does that mean Biden won?; 9/30/20, 8:56 AM
gilbar said...: this thread seems very dated
THAT'S the trouble with predicting future results; 9/30/20, 8:57 AM
mezzrow said...: Lots of confident Trump supporters may be motivated to help some of the "on the ground" operations in their area to grow Trump's own votes after last night. The Democrats will gather their Biden votes up one vote at a time by any means necessary.

What will you do? Type out your frustration, or do something effective?

Krusty for President. He's our last, best hope. This is not a joke.; 9/30/20, 8:57 AM
Amadeus 48 said...: It is 9:52 in New York and the stock markets are up. Hmmm...

Does the market like that now all we have are two idiots?

Watching market reactions hour by hour or even week by week is an exercise in confirmation bias. All the information out there is baked into market prices over the short to medium term, but, as William Goldman said about Hollywood, nobody knows anything.; 9/30/20, 8:57 AM
Ray - SoCal said...: Poll please!

The only winning I saw Biden do was exceed my extremely below expectations of him.

Trump Wins:
- Bring up a Hunter Biden Corruption
- Show he’s not a Racist
- Say Critical Race theory is racist
- delineated difference on handling Covid
- bring up super predator
- get Biden to say Antifa is an idea
- show he is the law and order candidate
- show he’s not an extremist on climate change, but reasonable
- laid out case for scotus nomination / confirmations now
- bypassing press censorship of coverage of many issues
- Bipartisan - showed he has worked successfully with Democratic Officials
- Trumps showed he respected “Science”

Biden Wins
- Presentable - did not appear to be

Traps Trump Avoided
- many

Could Trump have done better
- yes

Listening I have not laughed so much in a long time.; 9/30/20, 9:01 AM
Big Mike said...: The hatred between Trump and Biden is very personal.

Agreed, and I venture to suggest that neither Wallace nor Trump much respects the other.; 9/30/20, 9:02 AM
Professional lady said...: I recently watched a clip of Ronald Reagan in 1984. Reagan was so calm, gracious, and upbeat. Sigh. That was then, this is now. We have to deal with what is.; 9/30/20, 9:02 AM
MountainMan said...: Here's a clip from a real debate. This was the first debate I ever watched. The last one I watched in full was Reagan-Mondale. I don't know why the debate commission doesn't still use this format. With a good moderator - notice Howard K. Smith hardly says anything - we maybe could have good debates again, though any format with these two could be difficult!; 9/30/20, 9:04 AM
Ray Fowler said...: The debate reminded me of how much I dislike Trump as a person and how much I dislike Biden as a candidate. But I think overall Trump has done a good job as president.; 9/30/20, 9:04 AM
Milo Minderbinder said...: Since 41 (Mr. "Read My Lips"), we've endured presidents who without exception have striven to be deemed "presidential" by the media, so much so that they've often forgotten for whom they worked. Trump was elected precisely because the media labeled him not presidential. And what do we learn today from the print and electronic media? Trump was not presidential. Trump, thank goodness, is the anti-president. That's why those who don't respond to polls or watch Morning Joe or CNN love him, support him and will vote for him.

BTW, the market's up this morning....; 9/30/20, 9:08 AM
Howard said...: Correlation causation motivated reasoning.; 9/30/20, 9:10 AM
Dan said...: Market is up right now.; 9/30/20, 9:12 AM
Gusty Winds said...: Hmm… the fine people hoax promoted front and center by Wallace. Completely ignored the fact that violence in America in 2020 is fueled and financed by the left…but we’re worried about the Proud Boys. How many windows did the Proud Boys break in Madison? Two idiot crooks on stage last night. Biden and Wallace. Voter fraud is real, and if you live in Madison you saw it in full swing last Saturday.; 9/30/20, 9:19 AM
phwest said...: 30 minutes after the open the S&P is up 1%.

Reminds me a little of election night 2016 - the futures market broke decisively down as the reality of Trump's performance started to sink in around 9pm eastern. Really a remarkably clear signal, and by morning you were getting remarks like Krugman's "When will the market recover - never". And two days later the market was roaring.

The one thing you can be sure of is that the market is factoring in far more information than you have or could possibly have. That's what markets do.; 9/30/20, 9:23 AM
roesch/voltaire said...: Both allies and rivals “see Trump and the political culture that created him heralding the decline of American democracy and American culture,” Mr. Shapiro said. That judgment, he added, is “only heightened by the coronavirus response, not just American absence in global leadership but the striking incompetence in dealing with it at home.” Quote from NYT this morning I think that sums up the sad state of democracy which will affect the market as well.; 9/30/20, 9:26 AM
phwest said...: Having said that - Meade's comment had more value than 99% of comments about the market. It made me smile.; 9/30/20, 9:26 AM
Tom T. said...: The print headline in today's Washington Post was "Debate Turns To Squabbling." If even the WaPo can't muster enough spin to say that Biden won, he must have done pretty badly indeed.; 9/30/20, 9:28 AM
LA_Bob said...: Shouting Thomas said, "It must take considerable restraint for these two to resist punching one another in the mouth."

Might be something to this (and by the way, I'd love to see it, especially Biden getting his false teeth knocked out).

I only watched one episode of The Apprentice (and I think it was one Althouse linked awhile back). The one in which Trump had to fire Rod Blagojevich. The Trump in that episode was very different from Trump the politician. There was no bullying, no bombast, no braggadocio. Trump asked pointed and probing questions. He was thoughtful. He was both firm and gentle. He watched with rue, puzzlement, and some sadness as Blagojevich left. The look on his face said, "There but for the grace of God and some flaws goes a decent man".

Trump can do that, and he should do it more often, especially in a debate. He would win a lot more converts.; 9/30/20, 9:30 AM
elkh1 said...: The market roars back. Does it mean Trump won the debate?; 9/30/20, 9:38 AM
DanTheMan said...: The market is up sharply, not down. Anybody who thinks they know why is fooling themselves.; 9/30/20, 9:46 AM
Koot Katmandu said...: Poor debate by PDT and Joe Biden. Expectations for Biden were low so I say winner Biden. I will not vote for Biden though. Anyone that uses the fine people hoax, drink bleach hoax, or call the military looser hoax is disqualified in my eye. Using the fine people hoax stokes racial division at time when we should be coming together.; 9/30/20, 9:46 AM
Achilles said...: Everyone will be talking about whether Hunter actually took 3.5 mill from the Moscow mayor.

That or whether or not Biden actually supports the Green New Deal.

Biden was forced to actually stand up and take a position.

And now everyone hates Wallace.; 9/30/20, 9:48 AM
Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...: maybe Emmett Sullivan should moderate the next debate; 9/30/20, 9:50 AM
Kai Akker said...: Maybe now you'll see the downside, with this little buy burst over. Last night was the first time the notion that Biden-Harris could win this election ever seemed even a remote possibility to me. Probably a lot of people in the market with a similar reaction.

August's crazy upside action looked like a blowoff. If so, these are still the early days of a bear market. Tech as vulnerable as it has ever been. That will shock many because that sector in particular has seemed such a can't-miss no-brainer winning ticket.; 9/30/20, 9:50 AM
Achilles said...: ""Oh! The market doesn't like that Biden won the debate!"/"Maybe what the market doesn't like is that all we've got now are 2 idiots.""

If you are a person who Thinks people who are not like them are stupid, you need to look in the mirror.

Everyone who thinks they could go into a debate and look better even than Biden did last night is probably fooling themselves.

I would love to watch all of the armchair debaters go up and humiliate themselves in front of 80 million people.

You would all look like retards too.

Even more than these two did.; 9/30/20, 9:51 AM
320Busdriver said...: Wads of cash on the sidelines, UE decreasing as economies reopen. My 401 is up 23% ytd. not including new $ added.. Don’t make the mistake of trying to time the market on thoughts of who might win an election. That is a fools game.; 9/30/20, 9:54 AM
AllenS said...: "Oh! The market doesn't like that Biden won the debate!"/"Maybe what the market doesn't like is that all we've got now are 2 idiots."

Well, it certainly didn't take long to revert back to cruel neutrality.; 9/30/20, 9:56 AM
buwaya said...: The markets have pretty consistently favored Trump, not just now.
They like Trump winning and get nervous when he seems to be in trouble.; 9/30/20, 10:00 AM
Mikey NTH said...: I think you need to wait a few more days to get a sense of where things are falling out.; 9/30/20, 10:01 AM
frenchy said...: Markets are doing okay. Maybe it's you.; 9/30/20, 10:13 AM
320Busdriver said...: To wit: Dateline Nov 9 2016

“ Paul Krugman: The Economic Fallout

By PAUL KRUGMAN
COMMENT
2016-11-09T00:42:44-05:0012:42 AM ET
It really does now look like President Donald J. Trump, and markets are plunging. When might we expect them to recover?

Frankly, I find it hard to care much, even though this is my specialty. The disaster for America and the world has so many aspects that the economic ramifications are way down my list of things to fear.

Still, I guess people want an answer: If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.“

What a mentally challenged economist said about Trumps win and it’s affect on stocks. Hard R; 9/30/20, 10:13 AM
Meade said...: "The market roars back. Does it mean Trump won the debate?"

It means the market finished reading Conrad Black's op-ed over at American Greatness.; 9/30/20, 10:17 AM
Howard said...: Achilles is grading candidates Depends and Dementia on a curve. The fact is they are both well beyond their sell by date.; 9/30/20, 10:20 AM
wildswan said...: This is a sidebar thought but it's what I woke up thinking and I think it goes here. What I wonder is what this looked like to the left? - aside from win or lose. I mean, Biden was trying to adopt the preferred left position, The Attitude, that one can easily dismiss Trump with sneers, with ugly words such as "liar," "racist," and that one doesn't have to debate Trump's record or explain one's own positions. And Trump, in addition to listing his achievements as President, was moving in all the time, in and out of his allotted time, being disruptive - hurling comments, interjections, you didn't answer, fact bits, what about Hunter, you'd fold, you hate law enforcement. (This wasn't a debate so much as a Mixed Rhetorical Arts cage match including a biased referee.) The left must have seen themselves in Biden and what did they see? Debate rules aside, at the end of the day, did they still think that The Attitude is enough when you are up against Trump? I just wonder. And if The Attitude didn't seem enough, that would be an upheaval on a deeper level than thought but how would it play out?; 9/30/20, 10:22 AM
wildswan said...: This is a sidebar thought but it's what I woke up thinking and I think it goes here. What I wonder is what this looked like to the left? - aside from win or lose. I mean, Biden was trying to adopt the preferred left position, The Attitude, that one can easily dismiss Trump with sneers, with ugly words such as "liar," "racist," and that one doesn't have to debate Trump's record or explain one's own positions. And Trump, in addition to listing his achievements as President, was moving in all the time, in and out of his allotted time, being disruptive - hurling comments, interjections, you didn't answer, fact bits, what about Hunter, you'd fold, you hate law enforcement. (This wasn't a debate so much as a Mixed Rhetorical Arts cage match including a biased referee.) The left must have seen themselves in Biden and what did they see? Debate rules aside, at the end of the day, did they still think that The Attitude is enough when you are up against Trump? I just wonder. And if The Attitude didn't seem enough, that would be an upheaval on a deeper level than thought but how would it play out?; 9/30/20, 10:23 AM
Skeptical Voter said...: Trump needs to be quiet while Biden wanders, wonders and blunders.

Sometimes silence is the best medicine--but Trump lets Donny From Queens take over too much.; 9/30/20, 10:24 AM
h said...: The Dow Jones is up at mid day by quite a bit (400 points or 1.5%). But the betting markets had a pro-Biden swing (yesterday Biden by 10, today Biden by 16). For a betting market these are both very close to 50-50, even odds, but the participants in these markets believe that the debate improved Biden's chances.; 9/30/20, 10:46 AM
gerry said...: Oh! The market doesn't like that Biden won the debate!"/"Maybe what the market doesn't like is that all we've got now are 2 idiots."

Cruel neutrality: Since the market is way up, it's apparent that whoever made that remark doesn't know squat about the debate, the market, or both.; 9/30/20, 10:50 AM
Left Bank of the Charles said...: The market loves that Biden won the debate. It looks forward to getting off the Trump roller coaster.; 9/30/20, 10:59 AM
Mike of Snoqualmie said...: The markets are strongly up at 8:50 AM PDT. Dow +1.56%, NASDAQ +1.37% and S&P +1.25%. The market must of liked the debate results.; 9/30/20, 11:13 AM
WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...: Meade

Here it is; 9/30/20, 11:14 AM
WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...: The biggest take away is that Trump's interruptions didn't help Trump.; 9/30/20, 11:14 AM
Birkel said...: Hillary "won" her debates in 2016 in exactly the same manner.; 9/30/20, 11:23 AM
Tomcc said...: It seems to me that there are way too many variables to know what is actually driving the market. I made it through about ten minutes of the hot mess of a "debate" and I got to thinking: if Mr. Trump is able to get ACB seated, do I still have to vote for him?
(I suspect I will, but jeez, what a maroon); 9/30/20, 11:27 AM
Anonymous said...: It was assumed the market would be down. It was down over 1% in pre-market trading. Market's actually up big, over 1% today.

The big news is that we really are very near a vaccine for COVID-19. Trump is right about that. Multiple companies in phase 3 trials now. Trump's willingness to spend big money to spur vaccine development is paying off.; 9/30/20, 11:33 AM
gerry said...: Here's an interesting take.; 9/30/20, 11:41 AM
rehajm said...: Always dangerous to assume causation with correlation. One observation that seems to hold true- markets prefer legislative gridlock.

Oh, how to quantify the level of crappy when markets prefer when government does nothing?; 9/30/20, 11:54 AM
tcrosse said...: Tons of shit can happen between now and the election, and this being 2020 it probably will.; 9/30/20, 11:56 AM
Michael K said...: The people who are calling Trump "idiot" please explain how he made billions ?; 9/30/20, 12:05 PM
Michelle Dulak Thomson said...: Re: "2 idiots": I'm afraid the first, gut-level reaction to hit me was the realization that the debate between Pence and Harris will certainly be much more interesting. Because both of them can think.

Trump really disappointed me last night, by not following through on obvious openings. When Wallace and Biden both threw the "fine people on both sides" thing at him, yet again, here was a perfect place to reiterate, once and for all and on national TV, what he actually said and when he said it. Speaking of which, he might actually have used the incident the other day in which two Trump supporters were mowed down by a protester to point out that it isn't only white supremacists who use cars as weapons.; 9/30/20, 12:13 PM
Kai Akker said...: D I N G ! B U Z Z T !

---What usually happens is the panicky types lose their money, the non-panicky types profit from the panicky types, and then things go back to normal. Wake me up at the next housing bubble. [StaticPing]

You asked. Homebuilders the most optimistic ever.

Meanwhile, in the stock market, what usually happens when stocks are as overvalued as this is selloffs that take major averages down 80%. Although it's hard to say for sure, as stocks have never been as overvalued as this before, by some of the measures.; 9/30/20, 12:30 PM
Rick said...: Maybe they are both idiots but investors don't give a shit about that. But one of those idiots heads a party which treats employers as the enemy and apparently Wall St believes his chances improved last night.; 9/30/20, 2:18 PM
Tomcc said...: I noticed, while watching on a closed caption screen, that Mr. Biden used the phrase "in fact" several times within a segment regarding his energy policy. Something like: "...in fact, we can create thousands of new, high paying jobs...".
I haven't noticed any "fact checkers" taking up this challenge...; 9/30/20, 2:28 PM
mikee said...: Kai, i am a homebuilder, in a small way, in Austin, Texas (one of the hottest realty markets in the US). And I'm scared to death that Biden might win. God help us all, for Harris, et al., certainly will not.; 9/30/20, 3:24 PM
West Texas Intermediate Crude said...: Gerry's link above really seals it for me.
One side (D) has sent its surrogates out arguing for no more debates.
The other side (R) is ready for the next one, and has requested more debates be set up.
One candidate is getting better, the other one is getting older.; 9/30/20, 5:27 PM
stevew said...: The market day ended well, for me at least. I'm not retiring yet so neither here nor there.; 9/30/20, 6:33 PM
Kai Akker said...: ---Kai, i am a homebuilder, in a small way, in Austin, Texas (one of the hottest realty markets in the US). And I'm scared to death that Biden might win. God help us all, for Harris, et al., certainly will not. [mikee]

Agree 100%. What about rising interest rates -- do they concern you? 10-yr and 30-yr Treasuries breaking out in yields. "Despite" the Fed. Or really, because of the Fed, IMO.; 10/1/20, 8:46 AM