April 23, 2020

"When you add $600 to the national average unemployment payment... the replacement rate goes from 38 percent to almost exactly 100 percent."

"In other words, that amount is what it would take for Congress to replace what the average American worker receiving unemployment would have earned.... Unemployment benefits are typically meant to keep people afloat but stay low enough to incentivize them to find a job. Now, when seeking work may be both fruitless and dangerous, the incentives have nearly reversed.... And a $600 flat amount, rather than one relative to each person’s income, on top of a state’s usual benefits, is perhaps the simplest possible policy to enact.... While an extra $600 a week is enough to replace 100 percent of the average national income, the added benefit will differ depending on where people are and what they typically earn.... A person who earns close to the average weekly wage will roughly get their salary replaced on unemployment, but low-wage workers who lose their jobs are more likely to end up making greater amounts than they were before...."

From "The $600 Unemployment Booster Shot, State by State" (NYT). At the link, a graph shows the states in order of how much the new benefit exceeds the income replacement level. At the top of the chart is Maine, where the unemployed are getting an amount that looks like about 125% of the average income in the state. Before the $600 bump, the payment was something like 48% of the average income. At the bottom of the chart is Maine's next door neighbor New Hampshire, where it looks like the payment is 88% of the average income of the state. That really isn't that big of a discrepancy, but the average income figure doesn't tell you the extent to which low wage earners are doing especially well (or the extent to which higher paid workers are getting into trouble meeting their regular expenses).

One commenter over there says: "I would like to see an article that shares both sides of the story on this. My husband is a small business owner of an essential business that he has built for 40 years. He is now having a hard time getting his few employees back to work because they are making more on unemployment. As I do understand the concept, it will, in the long run, put these small businesses out of business."

Yes, the extra $600 is premised on the idea that the incentive to get back to work is inapplicable because people aren't supposed to work. But what about those working in "essential" businesses? How do low-paid workers there feel seeing that they could make more money by not working? We often like to think that people want to work. Trump frequently repeats that people want to get back to work. But if your job isn't intrinsically rewarding to you and you could make more money not working, would you want to get back to work? Maybe you would.

The small business owner — like that commenter's husband — has an opportunity to see who has a strong work ethic and a dedication to the company. That may be worth remembering when the $600 add-on is taken off and everyone wants to come back. In the meantime, however, he is suffering, and it must be demoralizing to see that people don't want to support the company that had given them their jobs. Maybe some of the fault is with the owner: Why didn't he foster a spirit of loyalty to the company, when he had the chance?

241 comments:

1 – 200 of 241   Newer›   Newest»
JAORE said...

That issue was raised by a few Republicans. They were called callous and cruel.

rehajm said...

They don't mention the common Obama era policy of collecting benefits and working for cash....

Unintended consequences those who don't loathe 'finance' would say. It will prolong the recovery for as long as the disincentive exists...

alanc709 said...

Just another step on the road to guaranteed income. Socialism is always the goal.

Temujin said...

This is what Democrats and/or socialists have been asking for, for years. A weekly/monthly living wage paid by the government to each person just for being.

Humans react to incentives, either positive or negative. We strive, produce, move forward- or not- based on the incentives we receive. Our government is now giving people positive incentives to stop working. Negative incentives to look for 'a job'.

For some this will not be enough and they will still want to move forward. But for MOST? This is it. Pot stores are open. I'm getting paid the same as I was previously (or more). What the hell? I'm done.

Good luck paying back our national debt and keeping Social Security coming in the future. Ann- you may need to get that academic slot back.

David Begley said...

I used to work as an ALJ at the Nebraska DOL. There is a work search requirement to remain eligible for benefits. If a person receiving benefits doesn’t apply for open jobs, they don’t receive UI benefits.

I haven’t seen any one else discuss this.

gilbar said...

They don't mention the common Obama era policy of collecting benefits and working for cash....

people that think we can keep the bars (and MOST of the rest of the economy) closed,
need to Really think about what a blackmarket economy will do to US

here's a Hint Democrats; Speakeasies do NOT pay taxes.

gilbar said...

David Begley said...
There is a work search requirement to remain eligible for benefits.
If a person receiving benefits doesn’t apply for open jobs, they don’t receive UI benefits


In the Immortal Words, of SE Hinton: That was THEN, This is NOW

Laslo Spatula said...

"Why didn't he foster a spirit of loyalty to the company, when he had the chance?"

Because he's been fucked by the elite who shipped manufacturing jobs to China.

Because he has to compete with the politically-connected big companies that shipped away those jobs, crushing wages and competition.

Because he can never afford to pay what a government job pays in wages, benefits and retirement.

Because he has to afford the taxes that pay for those government wages, benefits and retirement.

Because he actually has to make payroll, rather than run billions in pension debt like Illinois.

How about we take $600 a month from all government pensions and give it to private-sector workers as a supplemental wage?

I know: it could never work.

Because the only real loyalty is that of government workers to the politicians who feed their pensions.

I am Laslo.

Ralph L said...

The Hoover administration encouraged businesses to keep wages up, thinking consumer demand would revive the economy. It didn't work.

Super UI means even fewer people will keep an emergency cash fund in the future.

Kevin said...

Ding! Ding! Ding!

The fight is over.

Drop down the mic from above and award Laslo the belt.

Howard said...

Well if the government was just pay every eligible worker the unemployment benefit irregardless of whether or not that person was working or not that would certainly incentivize people to work in essential jobs for a temporary opportunity to double dip.

mikee said...

I own as investments three rental houses, with a total of about $2000 in mortgages each month, $350 insurance each month, and $1500 taxes each month, for which I was getting $4000 in rents. In other words, they break even or barely cash flow, and I'll make my money when eventually I sell them.

No evictions for 120 days, starting last month, means no rent for March, April, May, June. This has been translated into PAY NO RENT FOR FOUR MONTHS by my tenants, and by almost every apartment and rental house tenant in the nation. The federal government decided I'm paying three families' housing for four months. Thank God I don't own an aparment complex.

Next to that nationwide mandate, paying people a pittance to sit at home is merely amusing.

Howard said...

The Hoover administration sucked

Rosa Marie Yoder said...

Laslo: Indeed.

But government workers, including teachers and professors, will never understand.

Craig said...

I like to start every day by reading Althouse. But it is incredibly demoralizing when the first thing I see is yet another example of how the "we're incompetent and wrong but don't you DARE disagree with us" policy-makers and opinion-shapers are destroying our country.

Buckwheathikes said...

People aren't even RECEIVING the $600, as ABCNews has finally noticed.

"The DES declined to tell ABC News how many unemployment applications are still pending. As of last week, DES reported receiving over 600,000 unemployment applications since March 15. As of April 11, approximately 250,000 of those initial claim applicants received payment, according to a DES spokesperson."

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/americans-wait-unemployment-checks-month-pandemic/story?id=70292528



alan markus said...

@ WI Dept. of Workforce Development website:

You do not need to do a work search at this time. Ignore instructions you may receive (online or in the mail) that say otherwise.

Buckwheathikes said...

"There is a work search requirement to remain eligible for benefits. If a person receiving benefits doesn’t apply for open jobs, they don’t receive UI benefits."

There aren't any open jobs, bro.

Country is closed.

EdwdLny said...

Hmmm, foster a spirit of loyalty. Let's see here, he offered you a job in return for a wage that you found acceptable. Your responsibility is to show up and do your job competently, his responsibility is to provide said work and pay you the agreed upon wage. Simple enough. Of course he also has to pay all of those taxes related to your employment that you don't pay and all of the associated paperwork. So he provides you the ability to feed, clothe, house, and educate your family. The ability to afford some luxuries in life. All for the exchange of your labor and skills. All of which you have agreed to. Where is your loyalty to he who has done all of that for you ? Well ? Yeah, most never consider that. Almost as though you're entitled to a job, hmmmm.

Fernandinande said...

"Why didn't he foster a spirit of loyalty to the company, when he had the chance?"

Because he's been fucked by the elite who shipped manufacturing jobs to China.


I couldn't believe someone actually wrote that "spirit of loyalty" sentence, so looked to see from whence it came...pretty good trolling, I hope.

BarrySanders20 said...

“This has been translated into PAY NO RENT FOR FOUR MONTHS by my tenants, and by almost every apartment and rental house tenant in the nation.”

Some well intentioned but removed from the real world might ask why you didn’t foster a spirit of loyalty from there tenants.

DEEBEE said...

That was a dumb deal for the “Art of the Deal” genius. We breathlessly await his tweets and Rush rationalizations as to why it was turnin table genius.

Sebastian said...

"My husband is a small business owner of an essential business that he has built for 40 years. He is now having a hard time getting his few employees back to work because they are making more on unemployment. As I do understand the concept, it will, in the long run, put these small businesses out of business."

Clearly, another "marginal business." What, he still needs workers? Why didn't he automate?

"But what about those working in "essential" businesses? How do low-paid workers there feel seeing that they could make more money by not working?"

Don't they love being "essential"? Hasn't Cuomo told them that it's better than death, so there?

"But if your job isn't intrinsically rewarding to you and you could make more money not working, would you want to get back to work? Maybe you would."

And maybe soon you'd run out of other people's money and nobody has any. Maybe an unemployment epidemic would be bad for our collective health.

"The small business owner — like that commenter's husband — has an opportunity to see who has a strong work ethic and a dedication to the company. That may be worth remembering"

That may be worth remembering when you close up your shop and wax nostalgic, comforted by a retied law prof who reminds you of the "opportunity" you had.

"and it must be demoralizing to see that people don't want to support the company that had given them their jobs. Maybe some of the fault is with the owner: Why didn't he foster a spirit of loyalty to the company, when he had the chance?"

Ah yes, in prog economics, businesses "give" people jobs. Why didn't government help to foster a spirit of loyalty by making sure that the reward for returning to work would be greater than the bribe for not working?

mikee said...

Please remember when discussing the $600 that Trump wanted it disbursed via the IRS, which could have been done in days countrywide. The Dems insisted on sending it via state unemployment offices, because .... some kinda non-reasons.

Mike Sylwester said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sebastian said...

"How about we take $600 a month from all government pensions"

Starting with Social Security of all seniors making more than $20K.

In fact, I'm shocked there hasn't been a movement by seniors proposing that they sacrifice for the common good by giving up something in return for the massive sacrifices made by younger Americans.

I thought we were all in this together?

Or was that just moral blackmail?

Fernandinande said...

Socialism is always the goal.

Who woulda thunk the goal would've been achieved so quickly and so easily, and under such a shoddy pretense?

Fernandinande said...

I thought we were all in this together?

That evil slogan is part of the shoddy pretense.

Mike Sylwester said...

Following up my comment at 7:51

At the beginning of April, the company's owner raised her aides' hourly wage from $11 to $13, in order to persuade them to keep working. She pays this extra wage out of her savings. She can do this only for a month or two.

Sebastian said...

Mike: "If the home-health-care industry in New Jersey is destroyed this year, the biggest culprit will be the $600 bonus."

But you see, we had to destroy health care in order to save it.

dreams said...

And you know the crooked democrats in the states and in Washington are going to take advantage of all this easy taxpayer money to bail out the states' unfunded pensions too. History might show that this coronavirus hysteria is what led to the collapse of the world economy, I hope I'm dead and gone by then but I doubt I'll get off that easy.

Consider this..."Mitch McConnell is right about refusing to bail out bloated blue state pensions"

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2020/04/mitch_mcconnell_is_right_about_refusing_to_bail_out_bloated_blue_state_pensions.html#ixzz6KRLwqkMa

mikee said...

Barry Sanders20: One tenant of mine, an illegal immigrant plumber, did pay rent for April, even after being sent a notice that evictions were on hold. He is out of work now. The school teacher in another house, who is still fully employed and getting her full paychecks, declined to pay and said I could evict her after four months, she'll just move then. Go figure.

"A spirit of loyalty" is detectable in renting by renewals of the lease. It means my rents aren't higher than a similar place to live, including the cost of moving, and my houses are in such condition that for the same money a better pad can't be had. All my tenants have been present longer than two years, so I've got that going for me, which is nice. Rent would be even nicer.

This evictoin shenanigan is a government taking without due process, IMHO.

Mike Sylwester said...

I manage the unemployment claims for a home-health-care agency that employed about 1,000 people, the overwhelming majority of whom are home-health-aides.

* During calendar year 2019, I processed 73 unemployment claims.

* From March 14 to April 14, 2020, I processed 97 claims.

* Before March 14, I worked 25 hours a week. Since the beginning of this week, the company president asked me to work overtime.

The New Jersey minimum wage was $8.60 in 2018, was raised to $10.00 on January 1, 2019, was raised to $10.50 on July 1, 2019, and was raised to $11.00 on January 1, 2020. In 2018 we paid our aides more than minimum wage, but since then we pay the minimum wage.

So, at the beginning of 2020, we were paying our aides $11 an hour.

An aide working 40 hours a week earns a gross of $440. More usually, an aide works about 20 hours a week and earns about $220.

Unemployment benefits are 60% of the employee's previous average age. So, a 40-hour aide who is completely unemployed collects $264 in benefits. A 20-hour aide collects $132 in benefits.

When the $600 bonus is added, the 40-hour aide collects $864, and the 20-hour aide collects $732.

In other words,

** an aide working 40 hours earns $440 a week. When fully unemployed, she earns $864.

** an aide working 20 hours earns $220 a week. When fully unemployed, she earns $732.

After the NJ schools were closed in mid-March 2020, a large portion of our aides stopped working, because they have school-age children. The NJ government declared that parents who had to stay home could claim unemployment and collect benefits.

Also, aides without children are claiming unemployment. Some claim they have COVID symptoms. Some are quarantined because they have been exposed to someone with symptoms. Some are declaring openly that they are have not been exposed but are staying home because they are afraid of catching COVID.

When all our aides learns about the $600 bonus, practically all of them will stop working. All the old women who had been receiving our service will be abandoned to live alone, without any assistance, in their apartments.

My company was well-managed and profitable at the beginning of March. Now we are facing bankruptcy in the next few months. I suppose that most of the other agencies are doing even worse than we are.

If the home-health-care industry in New Jersey is destroyed this year, the biggest culprit will be the $600 bonus.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

This is how governments turn crises into recessions and depressions, with disincentives to work. This was one of those problems identified before the final vote by senators Graham and Scott. But Nancy said it was too late to change. Her delay tactics combined with the paycheck penalty for returning to work will be two crucial factors in whether we recover like a U or like a V getting out of this hole. This is the largest loss of jobs in 30 days in history. Interesting times.

I find it strange that Althouse wants to blame the employer for the government outspending him on payroll. With our money. WTF?

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

There aren’t many businesses small or otherwise that can afford to spend the equivalent of $30,000/year MORE to each employee to buy loyalty. And there are many ways to foster loyalty other than doubling wages. That just usually isn’t an available option.

Michael said...

This is a real problem p, a moment when moral hazard slaps good intentions in the teeth. On the positive side those wanting to come back to their jobs will be the VP best workers.

cacimbo said...

"Maybe some of the fault is with the owner: Why didn't he foster a spirit of loyalty to the company, when he had the chance?"

Really?? How many people would choose to be bent over scrubbing toilets for eight hours for less money than staying home because their employer was a really good person who had treated them nice for twenty years.

Ann Althouse said...

"I used to work as an ALJ at the Nebraska DOL. There is a work search requirement to remain eligible for benefits. If a person receiving benefits doesn’t apply for open jobs, they don’t receive UI benefits."

How can you be required to look for work if you're being told to stay home?

But I can see how you should be required to go back to a job where you used to work if they're calling you back and they're able to be open within the terms of their state's lockdown order.

David Begley said...

Ann:

The probable answer is that people are still “attached” to their employer but aren’t working due to the shutdown. Once we reopen, people have to either return to their employer OR search for work to remain eligible for UI.

MadisonMan said...

If a person receiving benefits doesn’t apply for open jobs, they don’t receive UI benefits
At least in WI, that requirement has been waived for people put out of work because their place of employment closed due to COVID.

Night Owl said...

My sister's step daughter and her friends are in their early twenties and are happy to stay home and collect this money and see no reason to have to reopen the economy any time soon. My sister herself, a smart woman in her fifties, doesn't understand why small businesses are suffering when everyone's getting this government money? A lot of people in this country don't understand what it means to run a small business. And they're happy to stay home collecting "free" money. I'm starting to lose my optimism...

Wince said...

Laslo said...

How about we take $600 a month from all government pensions and give it to private-sector workers as a supplemental wage?
I know: it could never work. Because the only real loyalty is that of government workers to the politicians who feed their pensions.


Notice how Social Security "reform" is always done through the program rules and not the tax code.

As Althouse knows, the Supreme Court has ruled SocSec is no more a promise than a welfare benefit; the program rules can be changed at congress' whim.

Government pensions, on the other hand, are "contracts" that cannot be "impaired". How convenient.

That allows our betters to make mince-meat of their promises when it comes to changing the terms of the SocSec program, but their "hands are tied" when it comes to their own public sector pensions.

One example, the SocSec earnings cap. In addition to an already decreasing benefit schedule based upon the age at which you claim SocSec, half your remaining SocSec benefit is taken benefit is taken away for every dollar you earn more than about $17,500 a year between "early" retirement and full retirement age. An implicit marginal tax rate of 50%.

On one level, that policy makes sense: It gives the program to afford to allow some to retire earlier (especially manual laborers whose bodies often give out earlier) who have a low replacement wage options.

But why do they do that through the program rules and not the tax code?

Two reasons, really: (1) you'd have to make explicit the onerous implicit tax rate imposed on SocSec earners, which is politically unpalatable and, (2) there would be no legal or moral barrier to imposing that same claw-back on government pensioners who often retire at much earlier ages at full benefit with absolutely no limit on future outside earnings, earnings often greased by trading on that same prior government employment.

Congress can change the tax treatment of government pensions even if it can't change the terms of the program's underlying benefit.

In fact, imposing that earnings tax across all pensions would broaden the bases and allow for a lower marginal tax rate agains all early pensioners.

But they won't do that. As Laslo says, "Because the only real loyalty is that of government workers to the politicians who feed their pensions."

Sebastian said...

Meanwhile, out in the real world:

"4.4 Million Americans Filed for Unemployment Last Week, Bringing Coronavirus Jobless Claims to over 26 Million"

So far, we have the flowing alarmist rationalizations:

1. "Marginal businesses." Ef'm. The height of wit among alarmists.
2. What's a little temporary pain? They'll go back to work right quick.
3. Why didn't business owners create loyalty when they had the chance? (maybe a tad trollish)

Leland said...

I think it is a bit more nuanced. My wife's step-dad lost his job mid-February. He's on unemployment. Even before the federal boost, his unemployment nearly made up for his income less the expense of going to work. However, it would only last so many months. The federal boost extends those months. Yet, neither length of time is sufficient to bridge the gap to a retirement. Also, unemployment doesn't make up for loss of benefits and purchasing health insurance. Therefore, he is looking for work but is unable to find one that wouldn't significantly lower his unemployment income.

How can you be required to look for work if you're being told to stay home?

Texas isn't enforcing that requirement during the emergency period.

tim maguire said...

No solution is perfect. There will always be winners and losers. You design the program as best you can within practical limits, then you release it to the world and when the results start to come in, adjust where you can. Some moral hazards must simply be accepted until the crisis passes. Would you rather condemn 20 million families to penury?

Oso Negro said...

ALthouse said:The small business owner — like that commenter's husband — has an opportunity to see who has a strong work ethic and a dedication to the company.

If you have survived any length of time as small business owner, you ALREADY know who has a strong work ethic and loyalty to the company. "Employee Engagement" is a useful construct in this discussion. Gallup makes an effort to report on this every year. In 2019, 35% of workers were engaged, the great majority was disengaged and 13% were actively disengaged.

Here's a link:
https://www.gallup.com/workplace/284180/factors-driving-record-high-employee-engagement.aspx

TreeJoe said...

Massive unemployment benefits right now seem like about the worst "unintended consequences" government program going.

Oso Negro said...

tim maguire said...
No solution is perfect. There will always be winners and losers. You design the program as best you can within practical limits, then you release it to the world and when the results start to come in, adjust where you can. Some moral hazards must simply be accepted until the crisis passes. Would you rather condemn 20 million families to penury?

Tim, this begs the question that something MUST be done. The ignorant decision to shut everything down was the exit ramp for the road to penury.

exhelodrvr1 said...

"He is suffering" is a gross understatement. This will drive a lot of businesses under

tim maguire said...

Oso Negro said...Tim, this begs the question that something MUST be done. The ignorant decision to shut everything down was the exit ramp for the road to penury.

It doesn't beg the question, exactly (though kudos for using the term correctly). More like it ignores the question. The economy has been shut down. That is our reality. Whether the economy should have been shut down is one part closing the barn door after the horses have left and one part a different discussion.

Jupiter said...

Since 2008, the federal government has been spending about twice as much money as it removes from the economy in taxes. Having been an adult in the 70's, when CDs paid 12%, I knew that this would lead to massive inflation, and I took steps to keep up with it. However, the inflation never materialized. This is hard to explain. All I can think of, is that the economy's productivity has been growing at a really phenomenal rate, and we would have been seeing massive deflation if the government weren't skimming it all off the top and pounding it down the rathole.

But now the government is actually paying people (with money it doesn't have) to quit productive labor. Surely this will induce inflation?

Ray - SoCal said...

Mikee,

In CA first date evictions could be seen in court will probably be September.

I would explain to your Teacher Tenant, this will impact their credit. And they will have an eviction on their record. And these will stay there for X period of time.

And you can go after them in court for their rent.

Small Claims if under X dollars.

Only reason in CA for earlier evictions is due to health related issues.

Ray

exhelodrvr1 said...

"You design the program as best you can within practical limits"

This was a deliberate action by the Democrats - the issue was identified at least a week before the bill was passed.

Jupiter said...

BTW, it turns out that the test they've been using for "coronavirus" is hopelessly inaccurate, both with false positives and false negatives, and the "coronavirus" has never actually been isolated for study. It is assumed to exist because, after all, people are sick, aren't they? That never happened before!

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

I heard a different law prof on the radio and his economic plan was a much better option that, should we face a similar pandemic, should be employed instead of this complicated UI scheme. Leave economy running and promise $10K to every person who contracts the virus, creating an incentive for sick people to isolate and well people to keep working. Even if a million get sick, the fiscal impact would be $10 billion and not the SIX TRILLION we’ve already spent/committed that is acting as a disincentive to employment. I like this plan. Wish we’d heard it in February or early March.

Jamie said...

People who don't run or have someone close to them who runs a small business often seem to have no idea the lengths to which many small business owners go to keep their businesses going in hard times. It's not always because they're such good people and want their employees still to collect a paycheck - sometimes it's just that they aren't very good at the"business" side of their business - but for whatever the reason, they'll drain their savings, dip into whatever retirement funds they have, take out second and third mortgages, take out other loans...

I'm quite sure that the small businesses that do survive will remember which employees came back to work promptly and which ones decided to run out the clock. (Let me add that if I were a struggling low-wage worker, maybe I'd stay home and collect the enhanced benefit too - it's not either evil or lazy to try to bring in as much as you can, while you can. And the small businesses owners who do pay less than that enhanced benefit must be aware of that. But benefits do have a sunset date, even if we don't know when it'll be yet.) I'm just as sure that landlords with tenants who could have paid rent but decided not to will remember that fact when they are again permitted to evict deadbeats.

It's just down to who survives.

Fernandinande said...

Some moral hazards must simply be accepted until the crisis passes.

The fake crisis was the prevention of hospitals getting overloaded, and that crisis was over - everywhere except briefly in NYC - before it started.

Captain BillieBob said...

Ann said

"But I can see how you should be required to go back to a job where you used to work if they're calling you back and they're able to be open within the terms of their state's lockdown order."

Unless the rules have changed here in NJ if your employer calls you back to work and you refuse you lose your benefits.

Ron Winkleheimer said...

I was laid off and am receiving federal and state unemployment which is substantially lower than what I was making, especially since I have to pay for Cobra. I would gladly go back to work, but no one is hiring right now because of the economic uncertainty. I have had a phone interview for a good job, but they told me they would get back to me after "all this is over." I have also talked to some recruiters who tell me I have a great resume and they could have placed me, but that nobody is hiring now. And I have had several calls about jobs that pay substantially lower salaries than I was making and/or are short term contract jobs with no benefits. And the other day I discussed with my wife if I should adjust my expectations. Millions of people are out of work. The law of supply and demand says wages should fall. Of course, there will be fewer jobs to fill, so maybe it will even out. I'm fortunate, lots of savings and no debt, but local food pantries are running out of food. People are hurting, this cannot go on.

Ray - SoCal said...

There is a hidden cost to unemployment for businesses. They pay an unemployment tax, a rate based on people that collected against them.

This US manufacturer of masks got caught where they expanded due to H1N1, and then had to lay off people, once the crises ended. They almost went out of business due to the costs.

Now, they are requiring long term contracts to fuel their expansion. Their fear is if they expand, hospitals will buy short term, but will abandon them again once supply from China is re-established.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/watchdog/2020/04/03/if-you-imagine-that-a-local-business-making-surgical-face-masks-is-working-247-guess-again/

Ray - SoCal said...

Jupiter,

This has created several huge financial bubbles.

And the inflation numbers have been cooked for a while.

>However, the inflation never materialized.

Sebastian said...

"People are hurting, this cannot go on"

Don't worry about it. The economy will bounce back right quick. Think V. Take comfort from the kind words of the alarmists around here.

Spiros said...

Myopia. In most states, people can typically get 26 weeks of unemployment. I think the government is going to add 13 weeks. It's going to be tough to get these people back to work. So we can add an epidemic of near-sightedness to the ongoing Coronavirus crisis. (I know corporations are just as bad, with much of their focus on daily stock prices, but corporations don't become homeless.)

As for the essential workers, maybe a payroll tax cut is a good idea?

Jupiter said...

"This has created several huge financial bubbles. And the inflation numbers have been cooked for a while."

Well, yeah. The stock market was one bubble, and they just let the air out of that one. But where are the 12% CDs?

Sebastian said...

Fernandistein: "that crisis was over - everywhere except briefly in NYC - before it started"

What, still complaining about the shutdowns being irrational and unnecessary? But 1. we didn't know anything, so we had to do it; 2. we knew it would be bad, so we had to do it.

Oso Negro said...

@ Jupiter - The question of the government spending money it doesn't have is a very large one. Like you, I have imagined that the only solution long-term is to inflate it all away (another road to penury!). But I have also been afraid that "something" happens that causes the currency to collapse in an event of hyper-inflation. This has happened in other times and places, and though as Americans we like to think it won't happen to us, I don't see why it can't. The billionaires will flee to their bunkers, the pundits will weep piteously, and grannies will die in the streets. Then there will be a great re-set, and society will go on in some form after. The alternative would be, what, the construct that a government can print its way endlessly to good fortune? Hard to believe.

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...

Economic destruction.
It's a PAUL KRUGMAN miracle!

Ron Winkleheimer said...

@Mikee

As a landlord I'm sure you know this, so this is for the benefit of people who don't know the risks of renting property. It usually takes several months to evict a tenant. Even in landlord friendly states you are looking at six months. Also, tenants being evicted usually leave the property in horrible condition, costing far more to fix than the safety deposit.

Before this started my wife and I were discussing investing some of our savings into rental property.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Mike Sylwester--thanks for a great, informative comment. I wondered about home health care early in this and as the bailouts were taking shape. My grandmother had MS and relied on home health care aides between family visits for thirty years before she died, and a good friend at church (whom I am now forbidden to visit) is disabled and also relies on aides. As you know that industry is flaky even in the best of times (often not their fault; lots of single moms and life gets lifey) and I have wondered how it was doing with most of those employees being paid more to stay home than to go into what is now a risky and fraught, but necessary, line of work.

I am still cranky that I have been slurred as uncaring, selfish, heartless etc in this space, including by Meade, because I have been against the shutdowns and am skeptical of bailouts. If I were as eager to impugn others' character because of a difference of opinion as others have been, I might say that some of those pro-shutdown, pro-bailout people evidently want seniors to die alone and afraid in their homes, because they have created the conditions for that to easily happen.

Wince said...

Couple more thoughts:

"Justified fear" will be the basis for continuing unemployment benefits when businesses do resume, and likely be a basis for wrongful termination lawsuits if a business hires a replacement.

Forgiveness provisions under the PPP loan are at odds with high unemployment claims. Those businesses already best able to continue operations during the pandemic are likely to be the ones to benefit most from the PPP forgiveness provisions, along with those companies that go bankrupt.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

Maybe people who are comfortable and have little trouble getting their needs met should be a little humble about their views, and potentially even go out and serve some of the less fortunate. They might learn something.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

I ran a pizza place with eight employees in my undergrad days. To buy “loyalty” the way Althouse helpfully suggests after the fact implies The Red Baron had an extra $240,000 in operating income (or profits) that could have been allocated to payroll. How should I have accumulated that $240K pre-pandemic? Raise prices and let Dominoes and Caesar take all the customers? Put less in the owner’s pocket, even though he risked $400K of his own and has outstanding loans for the capital improvements that brought in the customers whom we need to succeed? Cut all advertising expense and allocate it to payroll? Use cheaper cheese and pepperoni and lose the “loyalty” of my customers? Where should the pizza parlor get the extra $240K that Althouse seems to think they have available?

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...

Paying people to do nothing is the ultimate goal of the left.

This virus - what great timing. eh?

Mike S @ 8:00AM - yeah - forgotten are the elderly, left on their own with nothing but fear.

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...

9:09 - Misplaced pants. Thank you.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

More to the point of the post: my husband had to reduce payroll in his organization by $X and he and HR were able to meet it by furloughing 3000 people at 20% salary, executive pay cuts [we're personally at 50%, thanks for asking; how's y'all retirees who are not making mortgage payments and raising children's cash flow looking?], and suspending 401(k) matching. They are still paying health insurance for the furloughed people. Some of those people would probably take home more on unemployment, but they have always been treated well (so, that 'loyalty' earning, I guess) and the ones who are furloughed will be the first brought back while ones who choose to be laid off for the unemployment will be out fighting for jobs like everyone else. It's a gamble.

Josephbleau said...

"Why didn't he foster a spirit of loyalty to the company, when he had the chance?"

A two minute hate for the Kulaks.
We have thrown sand in the gears of an extremely complex machine that no one knows how to operate, we will rue the day.

tim maguire said...

Ron Winkleheimer said...Before this started my wife and I were discussing investing some of our savings into rental property.

I've done a few evictions as a lawyer. No way will I become a landlord unless I can buy a big building with dozens or hundreds of units to spread out the pain caused by the scofflaws, who have absurd protections under the law. I have relatives who are small landlords and they do well with Section 8 housing--their tenants are garbage people, but the rent is paid by the state and the check is always on time.

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...

I Agree, pants. - we should all take some of our spare time to do something for a shut-in.


While the government is our imperfect benefactor - trying to help... Nancy holds it all hostage for her special interests, and insider cronies. Harvard gotta get paid.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

A lot of people in this country don't understand what it means to run a small business

Or a large one. It's disheartening to see how many adults with bachelor's degrees think that businesses just have a lake of money sitting under HQ.

I Callahan said...

Why didn't he foster a spirit of loyalty to the company, when he had the chance?

You can tell the people who've never run a business when a statement like the above is made.

Humans generally take the path of least resistance. If someone can make the same on unemployment as they can working, they're going to choose unemployment every time. It's criminally naive to think otherwise.

RobinGoodfellow said...

“Why didn't he foster a spirit of loyalty to the company, when he had the chance?”

How is he supposed to do that? If $1000 a week is an improvement, these employees probably are not making much more than minimum wage (especially when you consider that many of them probably get in some overtime).

How much loyalty does $7-800 per week generate?

Gahrie said...

Remember this story the next time they start talking about a guaranteed basic income.

Jupiter said...

"though as Americans we like to think it won't happen to us, I don't see why it can't."

When governments get into trouble is when they owe money in someone else's currency. You can't inflate away a debt denominated in someone else's currency.

RobinGoodfellow said...

“Blogger David Begley said...
I used to work as an ALJ at the Nebraska DOL. There is a work search requirement to remain eligible for benefits. If a person receiving benefits doesn’t apply for open jobs, they don’t receive UI benefits.

I haven’t seen any one else discuss this.”

This is a good point—and I favor this policy.

But in this case, the employees aren’t jobless. The government has determined that they can’t work because that risks spreading the disease. In short, there no other jobs, because most empty jobs are empty only because the employees who used to perform them were also furloughed.

I don’t see an easy answer. Many businesses will close and never reopen.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

I guess Althouse’s casual arrogance in writing that ignorant “loyalty” remark is what stunned me the most. I understand few people have experience running a business or making a payroll but I expected more empathy from someone who presents herself as a caring intelligent person.

Rick said...

Why didn't he foster a spirit of loyalty to the company, when he had the chance?

Half our country is trained to believe their employer is their enemy. It's often not possible to overcome a lifetime of indoctrination.

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...

Kurt sez:

"If the Malevolent Donkey Party was actively seeking to plunge the country into an economic tailspin, while still maintaining some level of deniability to the credulous suckers out there, exactly what would it be doing differently? It would be pretty much doing exactly what it is doing right now – shilling for the bat-gobbling ChiComs, delaying needed assistance to keep America working, and generally trying to keep us all locked in the dark in perpetuity."

rcocean said...

We have a vast army of Americans that could work at low-wage jobs that "Americans Won't Do" - they're called young people. Instead of wasting their time smoking MJ, having parties, pretending to study, and racking up hugs amounts of Debt in the form of Student loans, these people could be doing some National Service in return for college aid.

It'd be a win, win for everyone. And makes more sense than importing 1 million zulus every year to pick crops.

Left Bank of the Charles said...

The small business owner is having trouble getting his employees to come back to work at his essential business because he laid them off. They weren’t so essential then. He wants loyalty he didn’t show them.

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...

more Kurt:

"It’s fair to assume that you intend the expected consequences of the actions you take, and the consequence of the actions the Democrats are taking is economic ruin. The indisputable fact is that they’re totally cool with that if that is what gets them back into power.

Democrats are never ones to let a good crisis go to waste, and this Wuhan Flu is a very good crisis indeed if your goal is leftist hegemony. The Trump economy was booming after the near-decade of the Obama doldrums, and people were getting a taste of prosperity. But a happy, prosperous America is something the Democrat dudes can’t abide. All the Democrats had to sell were recycled cries of “RACISM!” and “RUSSIA!” and their standard-bearer was that sinewy weirdo Grandpa Badfinger, who was promising to drag us all back into the nightmare of globalist failure. The future looked grim, which means it actually looked bright for the rest of us.

So, the Chinese coronavirus was a dream come true, a deus ex pangolin that finally, after an endless series of leaks, impeachments, investigations, and media meltdowns, might be the magic bullet that actually takes Trump down."


Indeed.

Known Unknown said...

"Why didn't he foster a spirit of loyalty to the company, when he had the chance?"

You're right. He should offer tenure and a pension paid by taxpayers.

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...

more!

"Am I saying that the Democrats are exploiting the pandemic for their own cheesy advantage? Well, yeah. Everything they are doing is consistent with that. Everything. No, in the abstract, many of them would probably not prefer that tens of thousands of Americans die (I get enough Twitter death wishes to know, from their own filthy mouths, that some absolutely do want us to die), but their attitude seems to be that if life gives you tens of thousands of dead Americans, make political lemonade.

And upon reading this there will be lib blue check and Fredocon sissy huffing n’ puffing because I dared point out this manifest truth, so allow me to recommend that those who are upset go soothe themselves with a nice bowl of artisanal chocolate ice cream, which I am reliably informed makes everything better. Absolutely no one believes the Democrats are not going to wring from this black swan all the droppings they can squeeze out onto President Trump."

hombre said...

Congress is replete with economic illiterates.

Known Unknown said...

"The small business owner is having trouble getting his employees to come back to work at his essential business because he laid them off. They weren’t so essential then. He wants loyalty he didn’t show them."

Nowhere in the comment does it say whether or not his business was indeed essential and allowed to remain open. That is possible, but I have a feeling the intent of the commenter was that when his business re-opens, the employees won't come back.

Sebastian said...

"the consequence of the actions the Democrats are taking is economic ruin. The indisputable fact is that they’re totally cool with that if that is what gets them back into power."

Of course. Even ruin is a tool. The ultimate tool.

Aided and abetted by the alarmists here.

Dan from Madison said...

Known Unknown at 9.54 am ftw.

Openidname said...

Why do I hear nothing about this issue:

In California, and I assume in other states, an employer is assigned an "experience rating" based on how many employees it has laid off in the past. The higher the rating, the higher the unemployment tax the employer must pay.

So it would seem that, if the lockdown forces an employer to lay off a large number of employees, that employer is going to get hit with a double whammy when it starts to rehire.

MayBee said...

The PPP was supposed to take care of part of this problem. My son who is a student works part time at a restaurant. They got a PPP loan and are giving him the average of what he usually would make, and so he isn't getting unemployment. You can't quit and get unemployment.

Althouse: Maybe some of the fault is with the owner: Why didn't he foster a spirit of loyalty to the company, when he had the chance?

My jaw drops at this.

Bob Smith said...

You haven’t had much experience with low income workers, have you?

MayBee said...

Too bad the business owner couldn't grant tenure to his employees and really foster loyalty.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

The small business owner is having trouble getting his employees to come back to work at his essential business because he laid them off. They weren’t so essential then. He wants loyalty he didn’t show them.

HE laid them off or the government shut him down? One is voluntary and the other more a force majeur event that happened TO the business owner with no choice but to comply. Do all Leftists really believe that payroll and cash flow are not related? Are you really that dumb, Left Bank?

Ron Winkleheimer said...

I have relatives who are small landlords and they do well with Section 8 housing--their tenants are garbage people, but the rent is paid by the state and the check is always on time.


We thought about doing section 8 housing, but we just don't want to deal with the kind of people that are in section 8 housing.

Inga said...

“So, at the beginning of 2020, we were paying our aides $11 an hour.”

This is a very low wage. The work that these home health aides do is difficult and is deserving of a far better wage. How can one be expected to be loyal to employers who pay minimum wage for essential services and often backbreaking work?

I'm Not Sure said...

"Maybe some of the fault is with the owner: Why didn't he foster a spirit of loyalty to the company, when he had the chance?"

The internet equivalent of watching the "Pelosi's Ice Cream Freezer" videoclip and saying "Hold my beer."

J. Farmer said...

One more time with feeling: we are not facing any kind of catastrophic Great Depression-like contraction in the economy. The economic contraction was a result of deliberate changes in people's behavior, not systemic imbalances in the economy. There is a difference between a business that closes because of declining sales or increasing expenses and one that closes because all the workers went home for a couple months.

The best solution is for the government to do a large infusion of cash into the economy to compensate for the time out of work. Not hard to justify considering that the government ordered you to stay home.

Mary Beth said...

Maybe some of the fault is with the owner: Why didn't he foster a spirit of loyalty to the company, when he had the chance?

I worked for someone who would procrastinate on his work, become stressed, then blow up and yell at me (literal, voice-raised yelling) over something he forgot to tell me about. Or just snap at me and be nasty because he was "in a mood". I put up with it for a long time out of loyalty to the organization, but getting laid off let me realize how much stress and anxiety he was creating for me. I'd rather work for less somewhere else than go back there.

I'm Not Sure said...

"Do all Leftists really believe that payroll and cash flow are not related?"

But of course. All business owners have Scrooge McDuck vaults filled with gold in back of their palatial mansions. It is known.

Calypso Facto said...

Openidname said ... "In California, and I assume in other states, an employer is assigned an "experience rating" based on how many employees it has laid off in the past. The higher the rating, the higher the unemployment tax the employer must pay."

That's true. But the other half of the calculation for unemployment tax is the state's fund balance, which will of course be completely depleted by this event. So unemployment tax is going up for ALL businesses, even the essential ones that struggled to stay open and keep payroll going.

Ron Winkleheimer said...

Do all Leftists really believe that payroll and cash flow are not related?

Even if you're business is considered essential, that doesn't mean you're bringing in the same amount of cash as before the shutdown. If for no other reason, people are going to be unable to afford things because they don't have jobs. I heard an advertisement for a HVAC company yesterday that stated that they know money is tight and they will work with the client on financing.

Inga said...

“I have relatives who are small landlords and they do well with Section 8 housing--their tenants are garbage people, but the rent is paid by the state and the check is always on time.”


“We thought about doing section 8 housing, but we just don't want to deal with the kind of people that are in section 8 housing.”

What elitist attitudes. I bet some of the section 8 tenants make better tenants than those who aren’t getting rent assistance. I have a hard time mustering up sympathy for landlords who are hurting right about now who have turned their noses up at people on section 8 vouchers.

Ron Winkleheimer said...

What elitist attitudes. I bet some of the section 8 tenants make better tenants than those who aren’t getting rent assistance.

You're the elitist. I grew up in poverty. I know very well what kind of people live in section 8 housing.

Ken B said...

Ann Is getting mocked for her loyalty question. But there is some truth to her point. I have had, and my wife has had, bosses we were loyal to, and who were loyal to their staff. There are small businesses that earn loyalty. Loyalty is a virtue, but you wouldn’t think so from some of the sneering here.

Charlie Currie said...

I think all government employees and politicians should forfeit their next three months income so we can "All be in this together" .

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

One more time with feeling: we are not facing any kind of catastrophic Great Depression-like contraction in the economy.

UNLESS the government exacerbates the problem like they did in the 1930s and they did during Obama's "recovery" which creates the incentive for people to stay home and NOT return to work. The operators of small business are telling you, anecdotally but consistently, that the government adding a $600 premium to UI is having the effect right now of delaying a return to full employment.

IF we had shut down and were reopening 28 days later (two quarantine periods should be enough) without any incentive to stay shut down, then I would agree that all the fundamental factors are in place for a steep V-shaped recovery. BUT we have stupid (possibly evil) people writing legislation that does the EXACT OPPOSITE and creates a dilemma.

roesch/voltaire said...

Along with the cash influx, we need to consider the entire for profit health care system as so many people discover they no longer have health insurance or can not afford the Corba on their unemployment. And maybe considering that %70 of the population was not prepared for any kind of financial emergencies, it is time to consider higher wages for all? I would suggest that loyalty happens when people feel they have a real stake in their work--one reason to have employees invested in the company, or own part of the business at they do at Woodman's in Madison.

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...

Basic sound economic principles are not taught in public education.

I recommend Dave Ramsey.

J. Farmer said...

UNLESS the government exacerbates the problem like they did in the 1930s and they did during Obama's "recovery" which creates the incentive for people to stay home and NOT return to work.

Unemployment benefits are finite.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Ann Is getting mocked for her loyalty question. But there is some truth to her point. I have had, and my wife has had, bosses we were loyal to, and who were loyal to their staff. There are small businesses that earn loyalty. Loyalty is a virtue, but you wouldn’t think so from some of the sneering

Sure. Surveys of employees (read HR literature) show that a feeling of being treated fairly, clear communication of expectations and outcomes, and opportunities to advance are the typical building blocks of employee loyalty. Fair pay and very high pay (an extra $30K a year under Althouse's formula above) are not the same thing. And loyalty cannot be purchased when the other work conditions are horrible. Every employer has to be a multidimensional actor, and there are a lot of factors that go into fostering a healthy workplace.

I'll ignore your sneering remark because it obviously doesn't apply to my measured analyses of the situation. Not sure why you're a gratuitous dick so often. Can't you make a point without insulting others?

Dear corrupt left, go F yourselves said...

Some small business owners are choosing to close their doors for good. They were not planning on an early retirement, but the forced closing forced them to make that decision.
Loyal small business employees don't have a job to go back to.

I'm Not Sure said...

"I would suggest that loyalty happens when people feel they have a real stake in their work--one reason to have employees invested in the company, or own part of the business at they do at Woodman's in Madison."

Employees can tell their Simon Legree bosses to "Take this job and shove it" and open their own businesses anytime they want.

Well, except when the government won't let them.

Ron Winkleheimer said...

This is a very low wage. The work that these home health aides do is difficult and is deserving of a far better wage.

Well Inga, you have identified a need, you should fill it. Start a home health aide company, give the employees the wages they deserve, and profit!

Inga said...

“Ann Is getting mocked for her loyalty question. But there is some truth to her point. I have had, and my wife has had, bosses we were loyal to, and who were loyal to their staff. There are small businesses that earn loyalty. Loyalty is a virtue, but you wouldn’t think so from some of the sneering here.”

My son in law here in WI has an essential manufacturing business. He hasn’t lost one employee and yes they do appear to be loyal to him as he treats them with dignity, respect and pays his employees better than other similar businesses. He knows his employees, he knows about their families and makes a point of interacting with the employees everyday. My daughter, his wife goes in to work once a week to do office work and his father who is retired also has worked in the plant until the start of this social distancing, when the family thought because of his age and certain health conditions he’d be safer at home.

My son in law’s plant is huge and he has implemented shift work to make sure less employees are in the building at any given time. Masks are encouraged but not mandatory. Break and lunch times are in a large room with tables far apart. Disinfectant wipes are everywhere.

Calypso Facto said...

Roesch blurts the Democrat's quiet part out loud: what a great opportunity for government takeover of healthcare and increased minimum wage / basic income!

I'm Full of Soup said...

The eviction thing is drummed up DEM BS.

In most states, I bet it takes so long to legally evict someone,by that time, they will be 3-4 months behind on their rent at a minimum.

narciso said...

the future

I'm Full of Soup said...

Inga: Why do I find it hard to believe you could be a close relative of a successful capitalist?

Ray - SoCal said...

Section 8 can be good, but it can also be a nightmare.

There is a delay to get approved.

And you have to survive an inspection.

And it's not so much the section 8 tenant, but their friends and relatives that can be issues.

And how much damages can be reimbursed varies.

Ken B said...

Inga
My dad's closest friend left a good job in academia to take over and rescue a small manufacturer. Eventually he did, and he saved the jobs and made a lot of money. There were rough patches over the years though, and he came close to bankruptcy several times. He was loyal to them, and in the downturn of 2008 they stayed loyal to him. Eventually it thrived again. loyalty can be earned. It’s odd to see a Trumpkins scoff so, since Trump is intensely loyal and loyalty is one thing he demands.

Inga said...

“Along with the cash influx, we need to consider the entire for profit health care system as so many people discover they no longer have health insurance or can not afford the Corba on their unemployment. And maybe considering that %70 of the population was not prepared for any kind of financial emergencies, it is time to consider higher wages for all? I would suggest that loyalty happens when people feel they have a real stake in their work--one reason to have employees invested in the company, or own part of the business at they do at Woodman's in Madison.”

Yes it is way past time to get rid of for profit healthcare, nursing homes especially. The nursing home/LTC industry is a multi billion dollar industry that is one of the most corrupt businesses there are. They deal in warehousing our elderly, the most vulnerable among us. The buildings and furnishings are often beautiful and are kept clean, but for YEARS they have been making staff work at crap wages and working short staffed. They are awful places and after this I hope that they will be held accountable far more often for the poor care the residents receive than in past years. The State has often turned a blind eye to violations.

Inga said...

“Inga: Why do I find it hard to believe you could be a close relative of a successful capitalist?”

Because you have a skewed understanding of Democrats?

Fernandinande said...

We have thrown sand in the gears of an extremely complex machine that no one knows how to operate, we will rue the day.

Nobody can make a pencil.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Unemployment benefits are finite.

Congress allowed 99 weeks UI during Obama's recovery and I'm not positive Congress won't similarly stretch this out. People are already telling their employers they won't return yet because of the UI bump. This is a bad sign, Farmer.

Churchy LaFemme: said...

I just don't get the blase optimism of some about people just going back to work. Businesses are gone! At best their former workers can go back to *looking* for work. There will be inevitable knock-on effects: Empty storefronts affecting shopping districts & malls, janitorial and cleaning services losing customers, rents & leases not being paid.. It's just an uncutable gordian knot where every strand touches five others. There will be a recovery, if we can get rid of the throat boots, but it will be slow as the markets have to flow around and heal the damage.

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

Assuming China does not start a hot war, or some other unforeseen impediment to recovery occurs. Unexpectedly.

narciso said...

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/global-covid-19-lockdown-what-youre-not-being-told-parts1

Drago said...

Inga: "Because you have a skewed understanding of Democrats?"

LOL

We cannot cure the virus without implementing the Green New Deal, implement nationwide vote harvesting, allow open borders, increase abortion funding and nationalize healthcare.

Yeah, I think our understanding of the democrats is quite solid.

J. Farmer said...

@Mike:

Congress allowed 99 weeks UI during Obama's recovery and I'm not positive Congress won't similarly stretch this out. People are already telling their employers they won't return yet because of the UI bump. This is a bad sign, Farmer.

Unemployment during the Great Recession was a result of fundamentally different forces than unemployment being experienced today. This is more akin to a temporary layoff, but an infusion of cash from federal government to compensate the lost productivity will be needed. Some disruption will occur because of changes in consumer behavior but nothing on the level of a Great Depression.

Inga said...

“Yeah, I think our understanding of the democrats is quite solid.”

Apparently not.

Drago said...

Unknown: "I just don't get the blase optimism of some about people just going back to work. Businesses are gone! At best their former workers can go back to *looking* for work. There will be inevitable knock-on effects: Empty storefronts affecting shopping districts & malls, janitorial and cleaning services losing customers, rents & leases not being paid.. It's just an uncutable gordian knot where every strand touches five others. There will be a recovery, if we can get rid of the throat boots, but it will be slow as the markets have to flow around and heal the damage."

According to the usual suspects at Althouseblog, we have "avoided" an economic "collapse"......of course we have not. We have entered an economic depression and millions of jobs that kept people afloat will not be available for years. State and local governments are insolvent and will not be able to service their constituents.

A complete collapse.

On top of that, the most of the rest of the western world, only now fully waking up to what the ChiCom's have pulled here with their WHO lackeys in lying about this virus for months, all jumped down the economic collapse hole with us.

Drago said...

Inga: "Apparently not."

Lets try this again for Russian Collusion/Kavanaugh hoax rape claim/Ukraine phone call hoaxers amongst us, like Inga.

These are all items the democrats have publicly demanded as part of their coronavirus response bills:

- Implementing the Green New Deal
- Implementing nationwide vote by mail/vote harvesting
- Open borders and decreasing funding for ICE and calling for no deportations even for convicted criminal illegal aliens
- Increasing abortion funding
- Nationalizing healthcare

The democrats are literally advocating for these things at the top of their lungs while Inga sits here saying No they are not!!

Amazing.

Yet Inga still believes in Russia collusion and Kavanaugh is a rapist....and Carter Page is a russian spy!

J. Farmer said...

@Drago:

We have entered an economic depression and millions of jobs that kept people afloat will not be available for years. State and local governments are insolvent and will not be able to service their constituents.

What is the evidence that "millions of jobs...will not be available for years"?

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

@Farmer

So what if the causes were different when the answer is NOT government intervention that exacerbates it? Offering 99 weeks of unemployment had horrible effects on employment and labor force participation. It's indisputable. It was a bad move. So is offering !25% of current wages. It's an avoidable mistake and it bodes ill for government action to counter this self-inflicted downturn.

Michael said...

RV
Oh I don’t believe now is the time when they would like to be invested with their employers. Pay cuts. Digging into their pockets for debt service, taxes, insurance, maintenance, rent. Deciding wo to fire, who to furlough who to keep.

I think there is a very good reason most employees don’t qualify as owners or investors subject to capital calls.

narciso said...

and one of the players behind the Kavanaugh shamarama part 2, debra katz is now dr bright of the who-cdc-gates foundation venn diagram attorney,

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

No one here or in government knows what will happen from 20M people earning a paycheck suddenly aren't. IF our country can recover quickly and move forward, that will be fantastic and we will be stronger and more unified. But we don't know. There's no template. No history. We can't even be sure it was not an intended act by China in preparation for war. All possibilities are not positive, nor are they all negative, but they are uncharted and unknown. The very definition of uncertainty, and its opposite is a big component of economic security and optimism.

Michael said...

J Farmer
The hotel industry took many years to recover from the calamity of 2009, people still won’t fly today because of 9-11. Given the mistrust of everybody as a possible carrier fostered by the media and tv doctors a resumption of travel will take a long time. The 95% of hotel employees now out of work will not be rehired overnight. Not for a long long time. Millions.

Greg the class traitor said...

Inga said...
What elitist attitudes. I bet some of the section 8 tenants make better tenants than those who aren’t getting rent assistance.

"Some" is such a useful word.

You are entirely correct, "some" Section 8 tenants are better than "some" non-Section 8 tenants. And if you have a working magic wand and crystal ball, you could possibly figure out which ones are which.

Do you have one? I bet a lot of landlords would happily pay a lot of money for that kind of guaranteed correct information.

Lacking that, I'm pretty sure that most Section 8 tenants are worse than most non-Section 8 tenants.

So the question then becomes: how easy is it to boot out a crappy Section 8 tenant? Without them destroying your property?

It's not easy? It's hard?

Well, then, you now know why most landlords don't want to take the risk on Section 8 tenants.

Rick said...

roesch/voltaire said...
Along with the cash influx, we need to consider the entire for profit health care system


As soon as R/V and other left wingers agree to work for free we should consider their demonization of profit.

Revealingly there are not-for-profit insurers but their pricing is no different from other insurers.

Rick said...

I bet some of the section 8 tenants make better tenants than those who aren’t getting rent assistance.

Isn't it interesting left wingers believe they know better than people working in any industry how things really work. It's almost like complete ignorance of reality allows them to substitute a utopian view of how things work.

Drago said...

Farmer: "What is the evidence that "millions of jobs...will not be available for years"?"

Retail alone, always difficult, is expecting record numbers of stores (tens of thousands) to be shuttered in bankruptcy and there will be reduced capability for those retailers to retain bankruptcy financing. Those furloughed employees are out of luck.

In oil and gas it may be worse. There have already been and will continue to be a record number of E&P and refining/wholesale/retail downstream firms that go bankrupt and will not be restructured because there will be zero financing available, not to mention the economy was moving so rapidly before the collapse that we are now sitting on an ocean of available oil and gas for the foreseeable future. Those jobs will not be coming back for a long time.

I could go industry by industry, but whats the point? You are convinced everything is peachy. In the same way you think it was kind of "meh" deal that the entire US federal govt leadership in law enforcement and intel services attempted to frame an American candidate/President-elect/President for conspiring with a foreign power.

To each his own.

Howard said...

This time is not "too big to fail", it's "too many to fail"

Drago said...

Greg (to Inga): ""Some" is such a useful word.

You are entirely correct, "some" Section 8 tenants are better than "some" non-Section 8 tenants. And if you have a working magic wand and crystal ball, you could possibly figure out which ones are which."

Greg, you must understand, around these parts Inga is well known as a mind-reader of the highest caliber.

That's how she always knew what Mueller was thinking.

Howard said...

Farmers not sayin' we won't get our hair mussed, Drago. No more than 20 to 30 trillions gone, depending on the breaks

J. Farmer said...

@Michael:

The 95% of hotel employees now out of work will not be rehired overnight. Not for a long long time. Millions.

Yes, I agree. This is what I was referring to when I said, "Some disruption will occur because of changes in consumer behavior but nothing on the level of a Great Depression." The restaurant industry is another obvious example. A lot of that will depend on what transpires with the virus over the next couple of months. If the more optimistic projections come true, we will be in a better position. Nothing will return "overnight," but an "economic collapse" is not a likely outcome.

I Callahan said...

One more time with feeling: we are not facing any kind of catastrophic Great Depression-like contraction in the economy. The economic contraction was a result of deliberate changes in people's behavior, not systemic imbalances in the economy. There is a difference between a business that closes because of declining sales or increasing expenses and one that closes because all the workers went home for a couple months.

Deliberate changes in people's behavior is what caused every single depression in the history of mankind. What the hell do you think the the reason economies contract in the first place.

What you're completely overlooking is that 3 months of being off work has already caused massive employee layoffs, business closings and the like. That changes behavior in and of itself. If in 2 months they decide to let us all out, do you really think people are just going to jump back into their businesses and act as though nothing ever happened?

Browndog said...

These unemployment numbers are bogus.

A huge number of Michiganders still cannot even get signed up for benefits. It's infuriating.

Yet, the great governor announced she's laying off a few thousand government workers for ten days, and are automatically signed up for unemployment.

In an answer to a question yesterday she said these workers are not going to the front of the queue, they're just being signed up-

Which means they are being signed up before Michiganders that were layed-off since her first shutdown order!

Oh, and the 10 days is the minimum needed to qualify for unemployment.

stlcdr said...

Blogger Sebastian said...
Meanwhile, out in the real world:

...So far, we have the flowing alarmist rationalizations:

...
3. Why didn't business owners create loyalty when they had the chance? (maybe a tad trollish)

4/23/20, 8:25 AM

Trollish, perhaps. Bud, in my experience: I like where I work, and like working with the people (most of them), and enjoy the job. But if someone paid me the same money to stay home, I would stay home.

Loyalty (sic) will never overcome cash.

J. Farmer said...

@Drago:

I could go industry by industry, but whats the point? You are convinced everything is peachy.

As I said, "One more time with feeling: we are not facing any kind of catastrophic Great Depression-like contraction in the economy." That is not "everything is peachy." Disruptions that will require interventions to ameliorate, yes. Cataclysmic collapse. no.

Michael said...

JFarmer
Would agree that economic collapse n the strictest sense is not going to occur on a long term basis. But it has occurred in the hotel business where national occupancies are in sub teen levels; way below the capacity to service debt. Lender forbearance is iffy and short term. Bottom feeders assembling capital to feast on a government mandated industry collapse. Sick.

J. Farmer said...

@I Callahan:

Deliberate changes in people's behavior is what caused every single depression in the history of mankind. What the hell do you think the the reason economies contract in the first place.

On a certain level, that is obviously true since an economy is essentially the aggregate of everyone's individual choices. But that doesn't change the fact exogenous changes aren't the same as endogenous changes. The effects of an asset bubble bursting are different from the effects of a big natural disaster, for example.

Calypso Facto said...

Rick said ... "Isn't it interesting left wingers believe they know better than people working in any industry how things really work. It's almost like complete ignorance of reality allows them to substitute a utopian view of how things work."

That's exactly what I thought when I read this completely divorced-from-reality comment upthread: "This is a very low wage."

Central planners always think they're smarter than everyone else, and yet real world proves them wrong time after time.

J. Farmer said...

@Michael:

But it has occurred in the hotel business where national occupancies are in sub teen levels; way below the capacity to service debt.

I agree that the hotel industry is one of the more exposed, but we also have a lot of tools in the monetary and fiscal belt to ameliorate the disruptions before demand starts ticking back up.

narciso said...

if you think this accidental, it's not

Rick said...

Central planners always think they're smarter than everyone else,

Her problem is that she thinks value is created by the volume of inputs. So her (and the rest of the left's) analysis is no more than "I like these people who tend to vote like me so they should make more". There's no understanding of economics at all. And of course her only focus is politics so there's no concern about economic impact anyway.

Achilles said...

J. Farmer said...

As I said, "One more time with feeling: we are not facing any kind of catastrophic Great Depression-like contraction in the economy." That is not "everything is peachy." Disruptions that will require interventions to ameliorate, yes. Cataclysmic collapse. no.

What we are seeing is going to result in worse than a depression.

In the US State sponsored businesses will survive. Small business and entrepreneurial businesses are destroyed. The government workforce will not shrink but the private sector base will shrink.

The energy industry will go through a massive contraction.

The world food supply was decimated at minimum.

This will lead to a massive reduction in living standards. Millions of people are going to starve around the world. They have arrested all of the local politicians in Hong Kong and all of the pro-democracy leadership. Every country in the world outside of Sweden became a police state within a month.

There is a strong possibility this results in a World War.

J. Farmer said...

@Achilles:

In the US State sponsored businesses will survive. Small business and entrepreneurial businesses are destroyed. The government workforce will not shrink but the private sector base will shrink.


We have the tools to prevent "small business and entrepreneurial businesses" from being "destroyed." Cash infusions to keep people afloat as we weather the storm will be needed.

J. Farmer said...

@narciso:

if you think this accidental, it's not

What is the "this"? Is it really that hard to type a few extra words for the sake of clarity.

Browndog said...

Tired of hearing about fucking restaurants. This economy isn't held together by somebody cooking you a burger, and somebody handing it to you on a fucking plate.

Why hasn't anybody even whispered a word about the inevitable bankrupt city, county, and state governments?

They all know it's coming. Basic serves are going to cease to exist, but you know damned well the pensions are going to be fully funded by federal bailouts.

J. Farmer said...

@Browndog:

Why hasn't anybody even whispered a word about the inevitable bankrupt city, county, and state governments?

Revenue drops to state and municipal governments will have to be considered in a larger federal aid package as well.

Achilles said...

J. Farmer said...

We have the tools to prevent "small business and entrepreneurial businesses" from being "destroyed." Cash infusions to keep people afloat as we weather the storm will be needed.

The people who direct those flows of cash will direct that cash to themselves.

The government and the bureaucracy will invariably take most of that money. Just in welfare states where most of the money goes to upper middle class people.

This rule is as predictive as gravity.

There will be a massive contraction in the private sector. The public sector will not be affected at all.

But the public sector produces nothing so the affect on the private sector will be magnified.

Millions of poor people are going to starve and nobody we talk to or in our government is going to care.

Sebastian said...

WuFlu may be petering out, but the insanity epidemic has yet to subside.

First, the alarmists declared WuFlu the plague, now they declare the actual economic catastrophe they supported nothing too bad.

And then people are surprised prog governors stick it to us just a bit harder. It's not too bad, after all. A little bitter medicine. Cleanses the system. You find about which business are "marginal" and which workers "loyal."

Achilles said...

J. Farmer said...
@narciso:

if you think this accidental, it's not

What is the "this"? Is it really that hard to type a few extra words for the sake of clarity.

This is a massive power grab by the globalists and the aristocracy all over the world.

The Green New Deal is being implemented as we speak.

What is going on in the US is a Socialist wet dream. And the famine and death will follow just like it always does when the Socialists get their way.

J. Farmer said...

@Achilles:

But the public sector produces nothing so the affect on the private sector will be magnified.

Yeah, I guess there's zero demand for education, policing, or emergency services.

Ken B said...

Where's ST? He taking UI to stop commenting?

Birkel said...

You must apply for jobs. True.

Why were you fired from your last job? A: Stealing from work.

Unemployment status: Approved for future benefits.

Rick said...

Why hasn't anybody even whispered a word about the inevitable bankrupt city, county, and state governments?

These jurisdictions can tax just like the Feds can. They need to manage themselves.

J. Farmer said...

@Rick:

These jurisdictions can tax just like the Feds can. They need to manage themselves.

Income taxation isn't feasible for local jurisdictions.

n.n said...

Smoothing functions can engender inertia and corruption.

mikee said...

Ray, Ron: I landlord in Texas, where it takes 4 weeks to evict by normal inexpensive processes, 6 if they protest it; or 2 weeks with a deposit of 2 months rent to the court in case I lose; but only 3 days or less in cases of imminent harm to the property or other persons.

In one incident, my wife told the young women who had turned a newly rented house into an after hours weekend party shack that they had until noon to get out, "or else." And they did. I LOVE TEXAS. And my wife.

Birkel said...

You know from whom I learned the tactic I described above? A 19 year old pot head who applied for a job at a restaurant thirty years ago.

A 19 year old pot head was smart enough to game the system.

No set of rules can be devised to stop American initiative.

Althouse, bless her heart, will never be able to think like that 19 year old.

Achilles said...

J. Farmer said...
@Achilles:

But the public sector produces nothing so the affect on the private sector will be magnified.

Yeah, I guess there's zero demand for education, policing, or emergency services.

Good point even though you don't understand the point you made.

Everyone in those sectors is still getting paid.

The private sector that supports them is being replaced with "stimulus spending."

Education and policing and emergency services are an input. They are an investment into an economy. They are not wealth or wealth producers. They make an economic system more productive. But not if you smash the actual wealth producers.

It seems you have no idea what wealth is or how wealth is tied to productivity or how a national economy actually works or why the US is so much more wealthy than every other nation in the world. Your posts are pretty bad right now on this topic.

J. Farmer said...

Smoothing functions can engender inertia and corruption.

That is true, to a degree. There is no perfect solution to any problem, but upsides to fiscal stimulus far outweigh downsides.

Yancey Ward said...

If you don't read Mike Sylvester's comment at 8:00 a.m., you should be ashamed of yourself.

J. Farmer said...

@Achilles:

The private sector that supports them is being replaced with "stimulus spending."

Education and policing and emergency services are an input. They are an investment into an economy. They are not wealth or wealth producers. They make an economic system more productive. But not if you smash the actual wealth producers.


Agree with this view up to a point, but the private sector isn't being "replaced." Productive capacity remains but will need to be insulated from external shocks to the economy.

J. Farmer said...

It seems you have no idea what wealth is or how wealth is tied to productivity or how a national economy actually works or why the US is so much more wealthy than every other nation in the world. Your posts are pretty bad right now on this topic.

There is no reason to presume the most uncharitable reading possible of someone having a different opinion than you. The fact that I have reached a different conclusion may have nothing to do with having "no idea" but rather a difference in interpreting the data.

Rick said...

Income taxation isn't feasible for local jurisdictions.

A. Why artificially limit the issue to income tax? Do you need to pretend all taxes are income taxes to feed your pathological need to dispute everything?

B. It's interesting that the overwhelming majority of jurisdictions are subject to non-Federal income taxes. For something not feasible they seem to exist quite routinely. Are you next going to claim grass isn't feasible?

Michael K said...

Yes it is way past time to get rid of for profit healthcare, nursing homes especially.

Good grief ! The NHS is so much more humane.

n.n said...

That is true, to a degree. There is no perfect solution to any problem, but upsides to fiscal stimulus far outweigh downsides.

In the worst case, progressive smoothing functions are insidious and force catastrophic misalignments, including: personal corruption, family destruction, social distancing, social instability, economic lethargy, and developmental disabilities. But, yes, they can be productive with limited, well-defined applications, including supplements.

J. Farmer said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
J. Farmer said...

overwhelming majority of jurisdictions are subject to non-Federal income taxes

That's why I said "local jurisdictions," which are not "subject to non-Federal income taxes."

J. Farmer said...

@Rick:

A. Why artificially limit the issue to income tax? Do you need to pretend all taxes are income taxes to feed your pathological need to dispute everything?

Well, "tax just like the feds" was your phrase. Yes, they have the power to levy taxes, but structurally how taxation is done is very different. Also, much easier to move from one state to another in response to tax burden compared with leaving the country. And i guess my "need" comes from the same source as whatever compelled you to "dispute" other commenters above.

B. It's interesting that the overwhelming majority of jurisdictions are subject to non-Federal income taxes. For something not feasible they seem to exist quite routinely. Are you next going to claim grass isn't feasible?

Income taxes still make up a minority of state and local governments' revenue, which mostly comes from property taxes and sales taxes. Those jurisdictions also do not have the same ability to spend as the federal government does. Raising taxes now when already facing contractions isn't a good strategy. But the federal government has options in how it structures aid to the states (e.g. loans, etc.).

narciso said...

satire has most assuredly gone zombie,

J. Farmer said...

@n.n.:

In the worst case, progressive smoothing functions are insidious and force catastrophic misalignments, including: personal corruption, family destruction, social distancing, social instability, economic lethargy, and developmental disabilities. But, yes, they can be productive with limited, well-defined applications, including supplements.

I basically agree with that but would point out that the difference between smoothing shocks that are caused by an external event (e.g. pandemic, natural disaster, etc.) are an important distinction from shocks caused by internal problems with the system.

Rick said...

Income taxes still make up a minority of state and local governments' revenue, which mostly comes from property taxes and sales taxes.

Which is why it's stupid to claim they can't manage themselves on the basis of income tax.

Sebastian said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Sebastian said...

Meanwhile, in the real world:

"‘Instead of Coronavirus, the Hunger Will Kill Us.’ A Global Food Crisis Looms."

It's in the NYT, so you know it's true.

We already established that the prog Russia collusion scheme was not just a hoax but the exact opposite of how it was presented: collaboration between Dems, deep-staters, and the Russians, for nefarious purposes.

We are now seeing that the alarmist approach to the Wuhan virus is also the exact opposite of what was peddled to us:

We were supposed to save lives, but now are threatening millions.

We were supposed to save health care, but in fact it is suffering as a result of the intervention.

J. Farmer said...

@Rick:

Which is why it's stupid to claim they can't manage themselves on the basis of income tax.

Depends on the "they." The state government has options with income tax but not the local governments. It's not a good idea to raise taxes during an economic contraction. But also, states cannot simply solve their problems by raising taxes because it could compel people to move to another state so that increased rates will be partly offset by a decreased tax base.

buwaya said...

There is no real distinction between external shocks or internal ones.
As an example the European post WWI destruction of economies due to realignment of borders, international treaties and general reorganization chaos was "external" but real.

What we will have in a few weeks is going to be a mini version of a "postwar" scenario, globally. This will be very chaotic and dangerous. Millions of businesses will have lost their capital, capital goods will be misallocated in bankruptcy assets and held unproductive for some time, going concerns will die (or are already dead) and will have to be replaced with new going concerns. In the meantime all this loss will cause more losses, which are going to be realized over an extended period.

"Postwar" in WWI and WWII varied greatly between countries. Some came back quickly, the US having recession conditions in 1945-49 as businesses reorganized from wartime production to new going concerns to serve civilian consumption. Other countries had it far worse, even leaving aside war damage.

Btw in the US the very long "U" shaped recovery 2008-2014/15-ish was due to government interference in the recovery, increase in regulation and addition of employment costs. For instance here on Althouse I demonstrated the increase in the employment cost burden a couple of years ago, perfectly visible in BLS data. US public policy was undoubtedly the culprit.

J. Farmer said...

@buwaya:

I am not exactly sure what you mean by "real distinction." A house that collapses because of shoddy construction is different from a house that collapses because it was hit by a wrecking ball. Perhaps no "real distinction" in the outcome, but the differences in causes has an impact on the how it is rebuilt.

Economies are also drastically different from the pre-WWII economies, in better and worse ways, but we do have greater robustness in absorbing shocks. A large fiscal infusion from the federal government will help to ameliorate the shocks.

Jim at said...

The small business owner is having trouble getting his employees to come back to work at his essential business because he laid them off. They weren’t so essential then. He wants loyalty he didn’t show them. - Left Bank

You'll have to search far and wide to find a comment surpassing this stupidity.

It never ceases to amaze me how people who've never run a business seem to know exactly what business owners should be doing and how they screwed up.

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