April 23, 2020

"When you add $600 to the national average unemployment payment... the replacement rate goes from 38 percent to almost exactly 100 percent."

"In other words, that amount is what it would take for Congress to replace what the average American worker receiving unemployment would have earned.... Unemployment benefits are typically meant to keep people afloat but stay low enough to incentivize them to find a job. Now, when seeking work may be both fruitless and dangerous, the incentives have nearly reversed.... And a $600 flat amount, rather than one relative to each person’s income, on top of a state’s usual benefits, is perhaps the simplest possible policy to enact.... While an extra $600 a week is enough to replace 100 percent of the average national income, the added benefit will differ depending on where people are and what they typically earn.... A person who earns close to the average weekly wage will roughly get their salary replaced on unemployment, but low-wage workers who lose their jobs are more likely to end up making greater amounts than they were before...."

From "The $600 Unemployment Booster Shot, State by State" (NYT). At the link, a graph shows the states in order of how much the new benefit exceeds the income replacement level. At the top of the chart is Maine, where the unemployed are getting an amount that looks like about 125% of the average income in the state. Before the $600 bump, the payment was something like 48% of the average income. At the bottom of the chart is Maine's next door neighbor New Hampshire, where it looks like the payment is 88% of the average income of the state. That really isn't that big of a discrepancy, but the average income figure doesn't tell you the extent to which low wage earners are doing especially well (or the extent to which higher paid workers are getting into trouble meeting their regular expenses).

One commenter over there says: "I would like to see an article that shares both sides of the story on this. My husband is a small business owner of an essential business that he has built for 40 years. He is now having a hard time getting his few employees back to work because they are making more on unemployment. As I do understand the concept, it will, in the long run, put these small businesses out of business."

Yes, the extra $600 is premised on the idea that the incentive to get back to work is inapplicable because people aren't supposed to work. But what about those working in "essential" businesses? How do low-paid workers there feel seeing that they could make more money by not working? We often like to think that people want to work. Trump frequently repeats that people want to get back to work. But if your job isn't intrinsically rewarding to you and you could make more money not working, would you want to get back to work? Maybe you would.

The small business owner — like that commenter's husband — has an opportunity to see who has a strong work ethic and a dedication to the company. That may be worth remembering when the $600 add-on is taken off and everyone wants to come back. In the meantime, however, he is suffering, and it must be demoralizing to see that people don't want to support the company that had given them their jobs. Maybe some of the fault is with the owner: Why didn't he foster a spirit of loyalty to the company, when he had the chance?

241 comments:

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Rick said...

Depends on the "they."

No, the point is that none of these jurisdictions relies predominantly on income tax so any inability to implement change to income tax is irrelevant. If they rely on property tax they can change that. This is what I meant by artificially restricting the issue. You're tying to create a boundary so you can ignore the fact that what you say can't happen is happening across your fake border.

But also, states cannot simply solve their problems by raising taxes because it could compel people to move to another state so that increased rates will be partly offset by a decreased tax base.

Right, which is perfectly appropriate and a constraint states and other jurisdictions must deal with. The ones which manage a better mix of taxes and spending cuts will prosper more. So then we need to ask why people would advocate massive tax increases using the method most contrived to protect governments from negative consequences which motivates them to choose more tax increases and less spending cuts than they otherwise would.

Birkel said...

Economic illiterate at work.
Houses destroyed are just Keynesian stimulus.
Money supply doesn't matter.
Velocity of money doesn't matter.
Nothing matters.

Government can provide for all.
Arguments in times of manufactured crisis will become the norm.

TANSTAAFL.

buwaya said...

A collapsed house is a collapsed house. You can't live in it. It has to be rebuilt.
It will cost the same to rebuild. That loss and cost is what matters more than anything else.

n.n said...

I basically agree with that but would point out that the difference between smoothing shocks that are caused by an external event (e.g. pandemic, natural disaster, etc.) are an important distinction from shocks caused by internal problems with the system.

The cause has limited material effect on the viability of the function. Its character and consequence vary with scope (e.g. term).

buwaya said...

Having owned several small businesses (as sidelines) over the years -

The experience is like walking a narrow slippery path on a cliff edge. Any mistake in footing, or any random wind, can instantly end the journey. There is very little margin for non-essentials.

n.n said...

They weren’t so essential then. He wants loyalty he didn’t show them

He could offer them a stipend. However, generally, capital does not grow on trees, and resources are finitely available and accessible. I wonder if they would be willing to join an anti-union... to demonstrate their loyalty.

J. Farmer said...

Economic illiterate at work.
Houses destroyed are just Keynesian stimulus.
Money supply doesn't matter.
Velocity of money doesn't matter.
Nothing matters.


Not making the "Keynesian stimulus" argument. The notion that destroyed houses are an economic benefit is broken windows fallacy.

Also, not saying that money supply or velocity don't matter. There are questions of how much they matter and in what ways they matter. The answers to these questions are not known. That is why economists have so many different opinions and so many debates on these issues. The problem is not a matter of being "illiterate" at economics; the problem is the limits of knowledge. Nobody knows what the right answer is. All anyone can do is propose some answers and support why they believe they are true.

J. Farmer said...

@buwaya:

A collapsed house is a collapsed house. You can't live in it. It has to be rebuilt.
It will cost the same to rebuild. That loss and cost is what matters more than anything else.


But why it collapsed will have an impact on how it is rebuilt, which has consequences for cost. A house that collapsed because of shoddy materials or poor construction will cost more to rebuild than one that burned down.

J. Farmer said...

The experience is like walking a narrow slippery path on a cliff edge. Any mistake in footing, or any random wind, can instantly end the journey. There is very little margin for non-essentials.

I certainly agree with that. But my question is if a business fails because of poor ownership versus failing because of conditions outside the owners control, is there "no real distinction" because the business failed? Seems to me the cause of the failure has important implications for how you respond to the failure.

Sebastian said...

Meanwhile, in the real wold:

"about one in five people in New York City alone (over 1.7 million residents) have coronavirus antibodies, indicating that the individuals had either come down sick with coronavirus and had not realized it, or had asymptomatic cases."

It's a silent invader, I tell you. I mean, it can get into your system and you don't even know it. Shocking. At least with the flu, you kinda know.

"if the results are born out by further studies, it would indicate that the prevalence of coronavirus is much more widespread than previously believed."

Huh? No sane person "believed" that. Since community spread had to be common, and testing was limited, it was obvious from the outset that actual infection rates had to be much higher than case counts indicated, and CFR's therefore much lower. The only question was how much higher/lower--a lot, or a whole lot. Turns out, a whole lot.

And of course, even in New York State, many regions are barely affected at all. So not only does all evidence on the age distribution show that risk is very concentrated, as was clear from the outset, the regional distribution further confirms the very concentrated risk. Bot the absurdity and the inequity of the general shutdowns becomes clearer with every passing day.

Churchy LaFemme: said...

A collapsed house is a collapsed house. You can't live in it. It has to be rebuilt.
It will cost the same to rebuild. That loss and cost is what matters more than anything else.

But why it collapsed will have an impact on how it is rebuilt, which has consequences for cost. A house that collapsed because of shoddy materials or poor construction will cost more to rebuild than one that burned down.


I don't get what you are saying here at all. It seems to me that the costs are identical whatever the form of destruction. Perhaps the shoddy house cost less to build than the sound house in the first place, but that has no bearing on the new construction. In both cases the lot will have to be cleared and a new sound house built: The same costs.

Oso Negro said...

Blogger J. Farmer said...
@buwaya:

A collapsed house is a collapsed house. You can't live in it. It has to be rebuilt.
It will cost the same to rebuild. That loss and cost is what matters more than anything else.

But why it collapsed will have an impact on how it is rebuilt, which has consequences for cost. A house that collapsed because of shoddy materials or poor construction will cost more to rebuild than one that burned down


I have rebuilt both a business and a house. Both require time, money, and energy. The rebuilder must have the heart and will to do it. J. Farmer, is your preferred house a Soviet-style concrete monstrosity?

Birkel said...

Economic illiteracy is a wonder to behold.
Yes, there are lots of theories.
Funny how there are so many magical can openers available, in theory.

Rusty said...

J. Farmer said...
@Rick:

"Which is why it's stupid to claim they can't manage themselves on the basis of income tax.

Depends on the "they." The state government has options with income tax but not the local governments. It's not a good idea to raise taxes during an economic contraction. But also, states cannot simply solve their problems by raising taxes because it could compel people to move to another state so that increased rates will be partly offset by a decreased tax base."

Exactly. See Illinois

buwaya said...

Businesses fail for all sorts of reasons.
The owners could lack talent or grit, or circumstances or events can turn against them, or the owners could have misunderstood the game in the first place. Anything.

We (my business partner and I) were once in competition with Michael Dell. Back in the early-earlies of that business, the 1980s, when we were doing exactly the same thing, selling PC clones, on the same scale. We quit because we did not have the financing to cover carrying unanticipated excess inventory of parts required to handle our service commitments - that stuff failed far more frequently than we had assumed. We couldn't get cash on terms we were comfortable with. We stared into that chasm of uncertainty and we chickened out. Dell, I think, had better luck or greater courage.

J. Farmer said...

@Unknown:

The same costs.

If I use substandard materials and unqualified builders to save costs and build the house more quickly, then the cost to rebuild will be greater because sufficient materials and qualified builders cost more. The point is that the cause of the collapse has implications for the response.

J. Farmer said...

@Oso Negro:

I have rebuilt both a business and a house. Both require time, money, and energy. The rebuilder must have the heart and will to do it. J. Farmer, is your preferred house a Soviet-style concrete monstrosity?

I think you missed the point of my metaphor.

J. Farmer said...

@Birkel:

Economic illiteracy is a wonder to behold.
Yes, there are lots of theories.
Funny how there are so many magical can openers available, in theory


Hilarious. You comment over and over that I don't know what I'm talking about, but when I ask you to explain you say you can't be bothered. Your only definition of "illiteracy" apparently is disagreeing with you. You're either unwilling or (more likely) unable to defend a position or explain why another position is incorrect. Instead you just say people are dumb or don't know what they're talking about. How ironic that "smug' is your pet nickname for me.

J. Farmer said...

@buwaya:

Businesses fail for all sorts of reasons.
The owners could lack talent or grit, or circumstances or events can turn against them, or the owners could have misunderstood the game in the first place. Anything.


But you didn't answer my question. Would you agree that which of the "all sorts of reasons" explains the failure has implications for how you respond to the failure?

Do you agree that exogenous and endogenous variables have different implications for how you respond?

Ken B said...

Farmer
I see you have wised up to Birkel. Well, partly wised up. I think new depths await you.

Ken B said...

Farmer
Let’s look at hypothetical cases.
Bob's Cafeteria with bench seating and all you can eat buffets.
Steve's Hobbies with kits for model airplanes, puzzles, etc.

Both were well managed and profitable. Both are now closed under orders, awaiting re opening.

I think Bob's is history. He cannot survive the change wrought by the virus, which will be obvious after lockdown ends.
Steve's can survive after lockdown. He can take distancing precautions.

Both are in danger right now. If the government funds each neither has to shutter permanently in the next month or even two.

Neither business need be destroyed by the lockdown. One is a goner though for other reasons. Seems easy to understand.

Birkel said...

I won't spend time educating you without remuneration, Smug.
You are correct that I will never bother to waste my time with other than mockery.
Why would I cast pearls before swine?

This is not my circus.
You are not my monkey.

J. Farmer said...

@Birkel:

But you will spend time repeatedly casting aspersions on strangers that have no impact on your life. How terribly sad.

J. Farmer said...

p.s. The fact that I would never remunerate you for an education is proof positive that I am not economically illiterate. Perhaps you can get a hold of Trump University's mailing list.

J. Farmer said...

@Ken B:

Neither business need be destroyed by the lockdown. One is a goner though for other reasons. Seems easy to understand.

I acknowledge this earlier in the thread. There is a difference between the effects of the "lockdown" and the effects of the virus itself. Restaurants and hotels are two obvious examples. Airlines are another. In any event, the case remains for a large fiscal injection into the economy to weather the storm.

Ken B said...

Farmer
I am agreeing with you. I am illustrating your point of contention with buwaya by an example.
I am not sure we should subvene Bob actually, but there will always be borderline cases so it’s not a big deal.
It is a big deal with large industries like hotels. I think hotel investors need to lose money as that industry craters and shakes out. We need to provide bridge funding now but we also have to let markets work.

buwaya said...

I am being looked at funny because it is late to be arguing on the internet.

Anyway, I get what you mean - lets get to specifics. Two cases, that are fairly typical of your two categories - "internal" and "external".

- Business cycle typical financial panic causing a recession. But once in recession the problem that started the whole thing is actually over, for now, as it was a temporary bubble that popped. Its an "internal" problem that is periodic, as they usually are.

- Wartime. Economy is reoriented temporarily by decree to create unproductive goods and services. War is over. Situation is very much like at the bottom of a financial panic. It is also temporary, the only difference is that one can expect a financial panic to recur more often than wars (one hopes).

buwaya said...

The situation now is very much like wartime.
Lots of civilian productivity is dedicated to doing unproductive things (sitting at home, not making tanks, but for our purposes there isn't much difference), and civilian consumption is limited by decree. Businesses fail. Investments are destroyed.

Then the war is over and the soldiers and war-workers are unemployed. Which is what will happen when we are released from lockdown.

Churchy LaFemme: said...

OK, I'm dense today. (Well, probably not *just* today!), but I still don't see your point:

If I use substandard materials and unqualified builders to save costs and build the house more quickly, then the cost to rebuild will be greater because sufficient materials and qualified builders cost more. The point is that the cause of the collapse has implications for the response.

I agree that it will cost more to rebuild the shoddy house to code than it cost to build it the first time. And the cost to rebuild the sound house will be about the same as it cost to build it in the first place. But what it cost to build the houses the first time is irrelevant. To build them the second time will cost the same for both. (Broadly speaking, of course).

J. Farmer said...

@buwaya:

Neither business need be destroyed by the lockdown. One is a goner though for other reasons. Seems easy to understand.

I think the financial panic/wartime analogy is quite good.

Birkel said...

Quite good and destructive to your whole point.

Imagine illustrating ignorance for others in a public space, proudly.

Ken B said...

Unknown
In one case you might assume the foundation sound, and in another not. A partial fire wouldn’t require a total rebuild, a collapse due to crappy building would.

Birkel said...

Two quarters and 4.4 trillion lost economic activity while unemployment skyrockets over 20% and that is just a partial house fire equivalent?

Stupidity is bone deep.

Ken B said...

Instacart is hiring https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1253441102876557314

Too Morlock for some our tender Eloi I imagine. But terrific new anyway, and an example of the market at work.

J. Farmer said...

@Birkel:

Quite good and destructive to your whole point.

I'm afraid not. See the differences between 1929-1933 and 1945-1949.

Two quarters and 4.4 trillion lost economic activity while unemployment skyrockets over 20% and that is just a partial house fire equivalent?

That wasn't the point of the analogy. Point was causes have implications for solutions.

Imagine illustrating ignorance for others in a public space, proudly.

You demonstrate that better than anyone.

Michael said...

KenB
These are not markets at work. The government has driven us off the road and into the ditch. Now they want us to pay them to pull us out while you and your ilk call us bad drivers. This is truly insane.

Ken B said...

Michael
The government has not close grocery stores. The virus has changed most people's willingness to use them. Instacart is a response to a new situation and a new need.
Perhaps you are a Bernie Bro who thinks we should have a new government agency for shopping, but I prefer private enterprise.

Ken B said...

Over 2300 dead in the period ending at 9pm EDT, according to Worldometer. Just about 7500 in the past three days, for those using facts to assess predictions made here.

There is new data on the infection rate in New York State. If the numbers are correct the rate is about 14% https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2020/04/20/coronavirus-antibody-testing-hopes-to-shed-light-on-extent-of-infections-in-new-york/

This seems incompatible with the idea that a third or more of the country is infected already. (Another theory promulgated in these pages.)

It also makes the mortality somewhere between .005 and .01, that is 5 to 10 times as deadly as the flu. That is the good news alas, since most estimates are higher.

I don’t know how reliable the result is. Cuomo announced it. That does not lend it credibility in my view.

stan said...

Democrats wrecking small business and celebrating. Disgusting.

https://pjmedia.com/trending/hey-bernie-it-turns-out-paying-people-more-not-to-work-than-to-work-is-a-bad-idea/

https://www.wsj.com/articles/our-restaurants-cant-reopen-until-august-11587504885?mod=opinion_lead_pos7

I can't decide if Democrats are really that stupid or really that hateful and depraved. Probably both.

MadTownGuy said...

Ann Althouse said...
"{"I used to work as an ALJ at the Nebraska DOL. There is a work search requirement to remain eligible for benefits. If a person receiving benefits doesn’t apply for open jobs, they don’t receive UI benefits."}

"How can you be required to look for work if you're being told to stay home?

But I can see how you should be required to go back to a job where you used to work if they're calling you back and they're able to be open within the terms of their state's lockdown order
."

Could these people be required to apply for 'essential' jobs? Just wondering.

Rusty said...

Farmer said;
"It seems you have no idea what wealth is or how wealth is tied to productivity or how a national economy actually works or why the US is so much more wealthy than every other nation in the world. "
Not disagreeing with you. What you first must realize is that wealth creation is not a function of the state. States are net consumers of wealth. We are a wealthy nation not because of the state but dispite it. Individuals are creators of wealth.

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