Althouse: Sunrise, 6:10.

April 19, 2020

Sunrise, 6:10.

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... actual sunrise time — 6:09.

(Talk about anything you want in the comments.)

283 comments:

1 – 200 of 283 Newer› Newest»

Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Only the best people:

US manufacturers shipped $17.6million worth of face masks and similar goods to China in January and February 2020
This is more than a 1,000 percent increase compared to the same time last year
The surge in exports of medical goods came despite warnings that the pandemic would spread to the US
In late February the Commerce Department shared a flier that encouraged businesses to sell 'critical and medical products' to China and Hong Kong; 4/19/20, 8:51 PM
Lucien said...: Has anyone hypothesized a “first mover” advantage for countries (and their companies) who are the first to bust out of their COVID19 cocoons? If there is a global slowdown, with deflation, will that boost demand for US treasuries, driving down our cost of borrowing?; 4/19/20, 8:56 PM
AtmoGuy said...: What will Ann do when King Tony revises his house arrest order to forbid taking beautiful photos of the sunrise?; 4/19/20, 8:59 PM
Owen said...: BCARM: do you always take early “data” and extrapolate it to make the most outrageous possible political point? Why exactly should anybody care about your ”intellectual effort” to explain what’s happening?; 4/19/20, 9:00 PM
Lucien said...: Ann: when was your last post on the Sartorialist? Done something go wrong?; 4/19/20, 9:07 PM
Inga said...: “Only the best people:

US manufacturers shipped $17.6million worth of face masks and similar goods to China in January and February 2020
This is more than a 1,000 percent increase compared to the same time last year
The surge in exports of medical goods came despite warnings that the pandemic would spread to the US
In late February the Commerce Department shared a flier that encouraged businesses to sell 'critical and medical products' to China and Hong Kong”

There are going to be soooo many good political ads for this election cycle.; 4/19/20, 9:11 PM
narciso said...: Belgravia has a lush look, but its a little hard to get a grip on it.; 4/19/20, 9:15 PM
Ken B said...: I am very interested in the question, was it the subway that made New York City get so bad so fast? Because there are other cities, so it would be nice to find ways to partly replace subways and make them safer.

Masks seem the first obvious thing. If you ride a subway you should wear a mask, and a good one.

Might buses be safer? More buses would spread the riders at least. Are there air filtration systems that can be used?; 4/19/20, 9:16 PM
narciso said...: Interesting the folks behind the expanse, who title themselves james corey are too collaborators with rr martin.; 4/19/20, 9:16 PM
walter said...: Looks like Madison can soon look forward to newly minted Volvos.; 4/19/20, 9:18 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: narciso,

Come on back to the mid-afternoon thread. All the cool kids are still there.

I haven't watched the Expanse yet. Do you like it?; 4/19/20, 9:23 PM
narciso said...: Its very well done in terms of cinematography, its not a bright and shiny future think deadwood in space.; 4/19/20, 9:25 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/19/20, 9:27 PM
stephen cooper said...: Just curious, I have been told lots of people who are not used to extravagant dreams have been having such dreams lately.

And, I suppose, lots of people who do not share memories much have been sharing memories lately - for people who are afraid of our unwanted little companion the coronavirus, that would be a natural reaction.

There are few things more interesting than being around someone who has been more or less quiet for years who suddenly decides they have interesting things to say.

For example, one of my uncles was the quiet type, taught at a junior college (car repair), and did not share his memories of WWII for about fifty years, then when he was fairly old, he started talking about it.

Lots of memories. But even if he were talking about something less unique than WWII , it would he been interesting. the first time he shared a memory with me - after namedropping a celebrity who he waived through when he was on guard duty at the front gate of an English RAF base - I think it was Eisenhower, who was not offended when he was asked to show his ID - was to let me know that he went off steak for about 20 years after pulling a recently incinerated corpse out of the cockpit of a crashed warbird.

Who knows, maybe 50 years from now some old uncle in Wuhan will be telling his young nephew about his youth and listening to the sounds from the crematoria back in 2020.; 4/19/20, 9:28 PM
Inga said...: “Looks like Madison can soon look forward to newly minted Volvos.”

Speaking of Swedish cars, my 17 year old grandson inherited my son’s Saab and is beyond thrilled with it, learned how to drive stick shift so he could drive it. My son kept it in pristine condition and now my grandson is learning to work on it, as it’s very expensive to have any work done on it by a car mechanic.; 4/19/20, 9:29 PM
Ann Althouse said...: “ Ann: when was your last post on the Sartorialist?“

Hmm. Totally forgot about it. Is it still active? It’s just not on my accustomed route.; 4/19/20, 9:29 PM
walter said...: Ken,
Re mass transit, elements in this paper have been variously referenced:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3563985
The Coronavirus Epidemic Curve is Already Flattening in New York City
Sadly, there have been approaches as dumb as reducing number of subway cars and cramming passengers into reduced space on remaining buses to protect drivers.; 4/19/20, 9:30 PM
Inga said...: “Just curious, I have been told lots of people who are not used to extravagant dreams have been having such dreams lately.”

I’ve been having very vivid dreams lately.; 4/19/20, 9:31 PM
narciso said...: But it really tries to grapple how living in space for extended periods, something much science fiction tv or movies hasnt considered.; 4/19/20, 9:31 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Owen and Curious George, a 10-fold increase in almost anything will produce a signal that is discernible above the noise. All that was required was some sentient being to note and interpret the signal. Apparently there were none.; 4/19/20, 9:31 PM
stephen cooper said...: I never liked Rice Krispies much when I was a kid, and I abhor breakfast cereal now, but then again I never thought of Snap Crackle and Pop as possibly sinister figures until the CCP changed my mind; 4/19/20, 9:31 PM
Ken B said...: Walter
Thanks for the link. I'll look.
Like Wisconsin Democrats *reducing* the number of polling places, the better to blame Republicans. Except that wasn’t stupidity to was malice.; 4/19/20, 9:35 PM
charis said...: I'm wondering what kind of camera you use to take these great sunrise photos. iPhone? DSLR? or something else...?; 4/19/20, 9:37 PM
Darrell said...: The Sartorialist is still active. Looks like he changed format--I only saw a picture page. I did not click any pictures to see if there were comments.; 4/19/20, 9:39 PM
Inga said...: “Like Wisconsin Democrats *reducing* the number of polling places, the better to blame Republicans. Except that wasn’t stupidity to was malice.”

They didn’t have the poll workers they needed in Milwaukee to have more than 5 open.

What we know so far about why Milwaukee only had 5 voting sites for Tuesday's election while Madison had 66

“The messages facing city residents were different from any other municipality in the state, he said, and those messages influenced their willingness to work the polls. And he said he couldn't blame people for making that choice, which ultimately led to a significant shortage of poll workers in Milwaukee.

At least 112 people have died in Wisconsin from COVID-19, with 68 of those deaths in Milwaukee County as of Thursday evening. And of the county's more than 1,560 confirmed coronavirus cases, about 1,200 are in the city of Milwaukee, In contrast, Dane County has seen 313 confirmed cases and 12 deaths as of Thursday, according to a county dashboard.”; 4/19/20, 9:43 PM
Guildofcannonballs said...: "...but then again..."

No, just but then. No antecedent to again we have, to this juncture, been made aware.; 4/19/20, 9:48 PM
Original Mike said...: "There are going to be soooo many good political ads for this election cycle."

Right. All we need is smart big government.; 4/19/20, 9:50 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: From outside of Wisconsin the malice looked to be primarily on the part of those that insisted on in-person voting in the middle of a plague.; 4/19/20, 9:52 PM
J. Farmer said...: Let me make a book recommendation. Land of Promise: An Economic History of the United States by Michael Lind. He uses a Hamiltonian/Jeffersonian scheme that I wasn't a big fan of and became even less so as the book progressed. Nonetheless, it does a good of dismantling the notion that the US ever had a Laissez-faire economic system.

The entire libertarian bend of conservatism is a relatively new addition and is primarily a result of Cold War politics. The obsession with tax cuts, deregulation, and free trade as a solution as a matter of principles should be jettisoned. Paul Ryan and his adolescent Randianism as Speaker of the House was emblematic of so much that is wrong with the GOP.; 4/19/20, 9:53 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Tonight on Mark Levin show - Dr. John Ioannidis (Stanford) and Dr. David Katz (Yale). These are big hitters trying to curtail the panic and get people back to work safely.

Check it out.; 4/19/20, 9:54 PM
BarrySanders20 said...: On Tuesday, it will be two weeks since the WI election. Any spike in virus cases should show up in that two-week span. Haven't seen any spike yet, and plenty of people have plenty of incentive to hype it if happened. If it doesn't happen we wont hear any more about it. Yesterday's news, leaving only fond memories of the outrage.; 4/19/20, 9:54 PM
Inga said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/19/20, 9:55 PM
Sebastian said...: More lives sacrificed to The Panic of 2020:

"Richard Sullivan, a professor of cancer and global health at King’s College London, says: “The number of deaths due to the disruption of cancer services is likely to outweigh the number of deaths from the coronavirus itself over the next five years. Cancer screening services have stopped, which means we will miss our chance to catch many cancers when they are treatable and curable.” Charles Swanton, Cancer Research UK’s chief clinician, says some tumours will become “inoperable” rather than survivable."; 4/19/20, 9:55 PM
Inga said...: “From outside of Wisconsin the malice looked to be primarily on the part of those that insisted on in-person voting in the middle of a plague.”

And what do the Republicans have to show for their malice? A liberal Justice who won by 20,000 votes.; 4/19/20, 9:56 PM
Inga said...: “More lives sacrificed to The Panic of 2020:

"Richard Sullivan, a professor of cancer and global health at King’s College London, says: “The number of deaths due to the disruption of cancer services is likely to outweigh the number of deaths from the coronavirus itself over the next five years. Cancer screening services have stopped, which means we will miss our chance to catch many cancers when they are treatable and curable.” Charles Swanton, Cancer Research UK’s chief clinician, says some tumours will become “inoperable” rather than survivable."”

And how would ignoring the pandemic and going full bore ahead with no social distancing affect healthcare across the board?; 4/19/20, 9:58 PM
Sebastian said...: "Tonight on Mark Levin show - Dr. John Ioannidis (Stanford) and Dr. David Katz (Yale)."

Hey, hey: you mean, you didn't read my references in the 400+ comments on the other thread?

Of course, they talked sanity: "astronomical error" by the epidemiologists, need for herd immunity, etc. etc.

All the basics the anti-panic faction has covered here for weeks now. Are they getting a hearing too late?; 4/19/20, 9:59 PM
DavidUW said...: Sebastian-
absolutely.
Especially considering there is no real increase in TOTAL deaths from all causes at the moment. (see CDC's website, we continue to run at about 95% of expected TOTAL deaths from all causes. If this plague were so bad, wouldn't we see at least an increase in total deaths)

So putting off all the cancer screening, cardio tests etc will have a real effect at increasing total deaths in the near future.; 4/19/20, 10:00 PM
DavidUW said...: Inga, ignoring the virus as yet another pretty similar to the flu virus would increase the total deaths expected by approximately one percentage point as i have detailed previously.; 4/19/20, 10:02 PM
Ken B said...: “ And how would ignoring the pandemic and going full bore ahead with no social distancing affect healthcare across the board?”

A question I have been asking, without getting a response, for about a month now. Not just healthcare, but most of the economy. The bigger threat is chaos and complete breakdowns in some sectors.; 4/19/20, 10:02 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: J. Farmer said...
Paul Ryan and his adolescent Randianism as Speaker of the House was emblematic of so much that is wrong with the GOP.

Ryan did more to undermine Trump's presidency than anything any Democrat has managed. If in the first 2 years of Republican control of the house they had actually pursued at least parts of Trump's agenda rather than tax cuts for those who didn't actually need them, the cupboard would not now look quite so bare.; 4/19/20, 10:06 PM
narciso said...: Yes dial it to 90% tax brackets and no loopholes let see how that works. And lets put regulations on everything,; 4/19/20, 10:08 PM
Inga said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/19/20, 10:08 PM
iowan2 said...: US manufacturers shipped $17.6million worth of face masks and similar goods to China in January and February 2020

There are going to be soooo many good political ads for this election cycle.

Assuming any of this is close to accurate,(lack of source, and bereft of pertinent details),how would this lend itself to a political ad?

(the coming logic is going to be epic); 4/19/20, 10:08 PM
Inga said...: “ And how would ignoring the pandemic and going full bore ahead with no social distancing affect healthcare across the board?”

“A question I have been asking, without getting a response, for about a month now. Not just healthcare, but most of the economy. The bigger threat is chaos and complete breakdowns in some sectors.”

It’s like they can’t grasp the possibility of it.; 4/19/20, 10:10 PM
Rick.T. said...: Volvo is owned by the Chinese auto maker Geely.; 4/19/20, 10:12 PM
narciso said...: Remember the road warrior, thats the best case scenario of what happens when economies grind to a halt. When theres no tax revenue no money for payroll, truckers wont move the product a marked retreat of all the progress weve made in 30 years.; 4/19/20, 10:13 PM
Inga said...: “Inga, ignoring the virus as yet another pretty similar to the flu virus would increase the total deaths expected by approximately one percentage point as i have detailed previously.”

Sorry, but we’ve seen some death predictions form certain commenters here that were lowballed, as much as by 30,000 as of today’s numbers. I’m not too impressed with the prognostication abilities of certain commenters here.; 4/19/20, 10:13 PM
J. Farmer said...: Yes dial it to 90% tax brackets and no loopholes let see how that works. And lets put regulations on everything,

As if that's the only alternative.; 4/19/20, 10:13 PM
Rory said...: I finished 170 episodes of Barney Miller. It's a wonderful show - funny right down to the end.; 4/19/20, 10:13 PM
Jersey Fled said...: ARM and Inga said:

"US manufacturers shipped $17.6million worth of face masks and similar goods to China in January and February 2020
This is more than a 1,000 percent increase compared to the same time last year
The surge in exports of medical goods came despite warnings that the pandemic would spread to the US
In late February the Commerce Department shared a flier that encouraged businesses to sell 'critical and medical products' to China and Hong Kong”

There are going to be soooo many good political ads for this election cycle."

Fauci was still saying in mid February that the virus was no big risk to the U.S.

So what's your point?; 4/19/20, 10:14 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/19/20, 10:16 PM
narciso said...: Its rather striking how quiet the keeper of the sns was, you had to pull teeth to find out something was amiss, just like with cuomo and wilhelms ventilator malpractice.; 4/19/20, 10:16 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: @Sebastian,

"Hey, hey: you mean, you didn't read my references in the 400+ comments on the other thread?"

Sorry, I was sunbathing:)

Katz is sharp, but not operating with exigent circumstances. Let's see how Johnny Ion does.

Time to reopen!; 4/19/20, 10:17 PM
MountainMan said...: @stephen cooper: Yes, I have been having very vivid, intense dreams lately. In fact, I had one last night that had me making noises in my sleep - something I have hardly ever done in the past - and woke my wife up. I hope it is not a sign of anything. I am 69.

Although my father was never particularly quiet he did, during the last 18 months or so of his life, open up about a lot of things he had never talked about before, just random, out of the blue reminiscences. I was fortunate enough that my niece, who was in college at the time, recorded a video of an interview with him for a class she had in college. It was about an hour long and she gave me a copy after he died.

The best story he told, one i had never heard before, was about his grandmother in rural east GA and her family’s experience when Sherman’s troops came to their farm during the March to the Sea. I had heard a little about this before from him and other relatives, but he shed light on a whole new and more detailed story none of us had ever heard before. She had just turned 15 and there were no men at home the first week of Dec 1864 and she and her mother, as the troops got near, took all their livestock and hid them in a nearby swamp so the Union troops would not find them. He said if the Union troops found out they did this “they were afraid they would be shot.” The way he said it made it sound like the Union troops would shoot her and her mother if they found the hidden livestock. I just knew that couldn’t be true.

Several months after hearing this I got a map from that period of the location of all the farms in the county from the local historical society and found where they lived. I did a little research in some books I had and checked some maps of Union troop movements and determined it was most likely Union cavalry that had come by. I read online, in chronological order, the texts of all the GA historical markers for the Left Wing of the March to the Sea that approached that area and found one that addressed this and then it made sense. It turns out just a day or so before they came through their farm the army had rounded up all the livestock in the immediate vicinity, sorted them all out to determine which ones they wanted - horses, mules, cattle - and which ones of their own that were spent and no longer useful. They took all the rejects to a nearby farm field and shot them all then moved on with their new stock. So it wasn’t they who were in danger, but the livestock! They obviously heard about this and hid their stock to protect them. And, it worked. The troops ransacked the house, took some valuables and food, and broke the stock off a Revolutionary War-era musket that they had by smashing it against an oak tree, but never found the livestock in the swamp.

I regret I did not have more time to spend with him before he died or had the foresight to record some of our conversations before he was gone.; 4/19/20, 10:19 PM
wild chicken said...: I'm afraid a lot very marginal small businesses are going to go under. Like salons and taco joints.

I think the scrapbooking places and pueste shops went out in 2009.; 4/19/20, 10:20 PM
Ken B said...: Inga: “I'm not too impressed with the prognostication abilities of certain commenters here.”

Nor am I obviously, but it isn’t being wrong in the number that is their real error. Their real error is thinking that the *most likely* outcome is the *most important one* for analysis. But it isn’t and anyone can see that clearly in most contexts. You probably live if you play Russian roulette. You probably have a tasty meal if you pick and cook wild mushrooms. You need to consider the risks, and how bad they are, even if they are unlikely. It was never likely that 11 million would die, but it’s a risk that must be accounted for, as is the less costly but more likely 2mm dead or 400k dead. Or the complete collapse of the economy.

So they think 7500 or 20,000 or whatever is what will probably happen, best guess, and decide we should act on that basis, and think they have made a good analysis. In fact they have made a foolish and irresponsible analysis. And that those two are amongst the most intelligent of the denialists just makes it worse.; 4/19/20, 10:20 PM
walter said...: Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...From outside of Wisconsin the malice looked to be primarily on the part of those that insisted on in-person voting in the middle of a plague.
--
Absentee ballots were available. I had one (because obvious uncertainties)..but went in person.; 4/19/20, 10:20 PM
wild chicken said...: Pueste? Pirate shops. Wtf; 4/19/20, 10:21 PM
stephen cooper said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/19/20, 10:22 PM
Inga said...: “Fauci was still saying in mid February that the virus was no big risk to the U.S.”

Except that’s not entirely true.

Did Dr. Fauci Say There Was ‘Nothing to Worry About’ in Regards to COVID-19?
Accusations that Dr. Anthony Fauci said it was "safe" to go to the movies and gym in late February 2020 ignored key facts about the coronavirus outbreak at that time.; 4/19/20, 10:24 PM
narciso said...: I look at all the small businesses along the main thoroughfare who are closed now or half open, all the people who own or are dependent on income for food to pay housing pay car payments how long have you have them flatlined, three months six monthes, what will they do when they neec whatever.; 4/19/20, 10:25 PM
stephen cooper said...: MountainMan - great story.
Glad you figured out the truth behind the story, even if it was about 150 years later.; 4/19/20, 10:28 PM
J. Farmer said...: I look at all the small businesses along the main thoroughfare who are closed now or half open, all the people who own or are dependent on income for food to pay housing pay car payments how long have you have them flatlined, three months six monthes, what will they do when they neec whatever.

Yeah, widespread mass social distancing is not a feasible solution. We need a graduated opening for less vulnerable people, and the federal government needs to push cash into the system to help smooth the economic disruptions.; 4/19/20, 10:33 PM
narciso said...: Enough of a rant, did i mention thr magnus fyte books set in prague, which has key elements from beethovens work.; 4/19/20, 10:33 PM
Tomcc said...: I like this Levin guy; he listens.; 4/19/20, 10:33 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Ken,

Just curious- what are you going to do a year from now when it is demonstrated that the fatality rate of this virus is under 0.5% (this is what all the serological studies to date demonstrate), and that most of those deaths were due to the disregard shown in properly protecting the most vulnerable segment of the population because, in our panic, we devoted all our effort to protect everybody else instead? What are you going to do when unemployment is still above 10% a year from now? Are you just going to slink away, or will you still be here defending your advocacy for the shutdowns that cratered the economy more than had to happen? What will your response be in that case? Will we get a mea culpa, or not?; 4/19/20, 10:36 PM
narciso said...: Sometimes he raises his voice, because the utter inanity reaches critical mass. He was a veteran of the independent counsel wars in the 80s as meeses chief of staff, and has the scars to prove it.; 4/19/20, 10:37 PM
Ken B said...: “ Yeah, widespread mass social distancing is not a feasible solution. We need a graduated opening for less vulnerable people, and the federal government needs to push cash into the system to help smooth the economic disruptions.”

Exactly what is opposed by the Trumpkin denialists, and mandated by the Trump guidelines!; 4/19/20, 10:38 PM
Ken B said...: Yancey
I would be glad. How will you respond if we get more surges, and a higher mortality, thus proving that what you wanted to do would have been catastrophic?; 4/19/20, 10:42 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: I've noticed an odd age divide among the open-er-up people and the lockdown people. It seems that younger people (in my world) are in favor of continuing the lockdown until it is "safe," while the older people are more in favor of opening up sooner. This is remarkable because the younger you are, the less you have to fear from actually getting the virus (though it is not a death sentence for most 70+ people).
What causes this divide? Is it because the younger people believe that the government can handle the economic devastation? Or is it because the oldsters (like me) lived through the cold war, where were constantly reminded that we could be obliterated at any moment?; 4/19/20, 10:42 PM
narciso said...: Ot why do people still trust carrie matheson, everything she touches goes pearshaped. The last three seasons have been terrible.; 4/19/20, 10:43 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Who exactly are these people who oppose the Trump guidelines, Ken? I don't see anybody in these threads doing so. Are you just lying again?; 4/19/20, 10:43 PM
narciso said...: We see the inverse herb stein rule doesnt work.; 4/19/20, 10:45 PM
Kyjo said...: Dr. John A. Lee, a British pathologist and former NHS consultant, interviewed in Spiked:

“The real point is that there isn’t any direct evidence that what we are doing is actually affecting the peak. It is possible to make arguments that sound reasonable that a lockdown should affect the peak. And yet other places which are doing different things seem to have similarly shaped graphs. It is only an assumption that the lockdown is having a big effect on the virus spread, but this is not a known scientific fact. ...

“I think that there has not been enough questioning of the story that has been placed out there by governments. Governments were placed in a difficult position. Because of the amount of fear and panic and apparent severity of this disease, they felt they had to do something. But of course, having done something, they are now in a position of having to justify their actions. ...

“It seems incredible to me that we are not equally as interested in the effects of the lockdown on lives and livelihoods as we are in the actual virus itself. I think we are guilty at the moment of being a bit monomaniacal and focusing only on one thing, and really not focusing enough on the consequences that are coming out of what we have done to face this one thing. ...

“I think personally that we should aim to relax the lockdown faster than some commentators are suggesting. The government’s reticence to talk about this is based on modelling assumptions of numbers which we know are fraught with uncertainty. It is equally possible to make a case that relaxing the lockdown more quickly than is currently being suggested will have beneficial effects overall, even if the number of viral deaths ticks up again. Time will tell, but they are going to have to try to do the right thing soon, which means not prolonging this unnecessarily.”; 4/19/20, 10:46 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Blogger Ken B said...
Yancey
I would be glad. How will you respond if we get more surges, and a higher mortality, thus proving that what you wanted to do would have been catastrophic?
4/19/20, 10:42 PM
But we are already facing a catastrophe, Ken B. We are looking at a certainty of crashing stock prices, real estate value, employment levels, and government revenue. If the lockdown continues, the catastrophe will affect everyone, except the very rich and politically connected.
In my state, Hawaii, 1/3 of the work force is now unemployed.; 4/19/20, 10:48 PM
walter said...: From Inga's Snopes link:

"What's True

During a Feb. 29, 2020, interview, Dr. Fauci said that at that time and under the circumstances pertaining to that date, Americans didn't need to change their behavior patterns.

What's False

However, Fauci did not say there was "nothing to worry about," and although he stated that Americans did not yet need to change their behaviors, he noted that what was then classified as the COVID-19 outbreak could require that to change"; 4/19/20, 10:49 PM
Bay Area Guy said...: Johnny Ion just hit it out of the park on Mark Levin's show. He's one studly cerebral fellow, I'd say.

To think, a couple of nobodies here were hyper-critical of him.....

Reopen California! (But protect the vulnerable).; 4/19/20, 10:50 PM
Drago said...: ARM: "US manufacturers shipped $17.6million worth of face masks and similar goods to China in January and February 2020
This is more than a 1,000 percent increase compared to the same time last year
The surge in exports of medical goods came despite warnings that the pandemic would spread to the US
In late February the Commerce Department shared a flier that encouraged businesses to sell 'critical and medical products' to China and Hong Kong”

Inga: "There are going to be soooo many good political ads for this election cycle."

Jersey Fled: "Fauci was still saying in mid February that the virus was no big risk to the U.S. So what's your point?"

The point is that during January and February, when ARM's beloved ChiComs and WHO were lying to the world about the virus, the ChiComs cleverly bought up additional medical equipment, which many nations allowed because the ChiComs and WHO were telling everyone everything was perfectly normal.

The WHO, with a marxist radical leader installed by the ChiCom's, played along quite nicely with this.

Then, after the ChiCom's bought up all the gear they could, and the virus broke out and the lies couldn't be sustained any longer, the ChiComs executed their "Generosity Campaign". This was a Public Relations campaign designed to undermine western nations and try to make the world believe it was China that was the best possible partner.

ARM was a big, big, BIG advocate for the ChiCom's here at Althouse blog. There was not a single lie-filled ChiCom PR manuever that ARM didn't happily push here.

Even after dozens of nations realized that the equipment the ChiCom's provided, (at cost: ARM lied about it being given to those nations) was crap and was returned, ARM was still hyping the ChiComs as great humanitarians.

Interestingly, just today the German Govt has sent a bill for over 160 Billion euros to the ChiCom's as an initial demand to compensate the Germans for the ChiComs lies and crap equipment.

To this day ARM defends the ChiComs and supports their efforts....but the worlds nations have had a Great Awakening to what ARM's heroes in Beijing have been up to and the price is now coming due for the commie creeps across all fronts, including the African nations that had allied with China in the Belt and Road Initiative as these nations have had their people in China treated with extreme racism and hostility.

Boy, that blows up several lefty narratives, doesn't it?

And Inga is right: all of Biden's comments in support of the ChiCom's policies for DECADES will indeed be part of the ads to come.

BTW, did you know that Hunter Biden "forgot" to leave the ChiCom funded "investment firm" he was running like he promised to do months ago?

I guess $1.5 Billion the ChiCom's gave Hunter the cokehead was just far too much money for him to leave, what with his new baby from the stripper on top of the baby with the new girlfriend after nailing his brothers widow.

You know, the same Hunter Biden who was paid so handsomely by the corrupt, Russia-connected energy firm in Ukraine.

Yep. Ads galore.; 4/19/20, 10:50 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Lewis Wetzel:

I've noticed an odd age divide among the open-er-up people and the lockdown people.

That's an interesting question, but I wonder how true it is generally. I remember last month we are getting two different kinds of stories. One was young people who think they're invincible defying distance guidelines and continuing to go out and take Spring Break trips. On the other, millenials were complaining that their older parents were going on cruises and not cancelling travel plans.; 4/19/20, 10:51 PM
Yancey Ward said...: "I would be glad. How will you respond if we get more surges, and a higher mortality, thus proving that what you wanted to do would have been catastrophic?"

So, you would admit that you were wrong? Good to hear- I will remind you of this when the evidence is published.

As for me, I have already stated my position more than once- even if it saved 2 million American lives, the cost isn't justified. We would never spend $50 million just to save 10 generic people, or $500 million to save 100 such people. To save 2 million people that were initially proposed to be in danger, we have already incurred at least $10 trillion dollars in direct outlays and lost economic output- and that will turn out to be a low estimate of the costs even if we open up at the end of the month in just half the country. The costs will accumulate over the next decade and will easily surpass $20 trillion. If this is ever calculated in QALYs, the cost becomes even more unjustified.; 4/19/20, 10:52 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: narcisco,

Yes, everything Carrie touches turns to ashes. She is impulsive, untrustworthy, and not very insightful. I don't know why I kept watching after the season with the crazy woman president. It was so clearly meant to be Hilary--and then they had to retool on the fly to make her be the Trump they thought Trump would be.

It was so much better when they kept it realistic about the Muslims and the perfidy they are up to. Now they spend half their time America-shaming.; 4/19/20, 10:52 PM
walter said...: Yancey,
Do the recommendations factor in level of starting points or simply uptick/downtick.
I may have a problem with that to a degree.; 4/19/20, 10:54 PM
Inga said...: “So, you would admit that you were wrong? Good to hear- I will remind you of this when the evidence is published.’

7,500!; 4/19/20, 10:54 PM
narciso said...: Tell me how we're protecting the vulnerable now, did a bang up job with the nursing homes, basically blocked them iff with out all the tedious nailing the doors shut. But we closed everything else down.; 4/19/20, 10:55 PM
Ken B said...: Lewis
Of course we are. I said earlier it’s a calamity. The virus is real and the damage is real. So we can either try to find a plausible mitigation or not. If not, YW's choice, we could have faced both millions dead and economic collapse. Hard to see that as better. This way we have a chance to avert both. But either way lots will die and we are going to be poorer, and for some time. No choice there.
Look at 1918 and then the crash of 1920, and which cities did best.; 4/19/20, 10:55 PM
Sebastian said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/19/20, 10:55 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: And the way they kept Peter around. So diminished. I really haven't forgiven them for that.; 4/19/20, 10:55 PM
Sebastian said...: Kyjo: "Dr. John A. Lee . . "

Yes, also covered in a previous thread, but worth restating of course.

The very fact that the Gieseckes, Lees, Wittkowskis and Katzes now get more of a hearing is a positive sign.

Too late, but their voices are still important in overcoming the insane overreaction. Politicians will need some "expert" cover.

Pretty soon, there will be stigma attached to all epidemiologists who supported the panic, I think wishfully.; 4/19/20, 10:56 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: J. Farmer said...
. . .
. . . and the federal government needs to push cash into the system to help smooth the economic disruptions.
What is happening now is beyond the skill and experience of central bankers. Central banking was intended to even out the business cycle. It was also intended to prevent business cycle recessions from becoming depressions.
All the tools the central bankers have amount to changing the value of the currency or raising or lowering taxes.
If you think the epidemiologists' models are inaccurate, and unequal to the task, imagine the models the central bankers are looking at now.; 4/19/20, 10:56 PM
narciso said...: They wrecked her character, the first four seasoms were pretty good despite her bipolarity, then it went pearshaped after europe, the free period ends today, so i can wash my hands of the dumpster fire; 4/19/20, 10:58 PM
Ken B said...: “ On the other, millenials were complaining that their older parents were going on cruises and not cancelling travel plans.”

Yup. I’m no millennial and I was complaining about our aunt Planning on going on a cruise. whom our kids were bitching about too.; 4/19/20, 10:59 PM
Drago said...: I will be interested to see how ARM and Inga (and probably Ken B) spin the German govt demanding payment from the ChiCom's over the ChiCom's perfidy.

How can they make that about OrangeManBad? Should be fun to watch.; 4/19/20, 10:59 PM
Yancey Ward said...: I am more in Farmer's camp on this as far as actual behavior, but I think maybe what Lewis is seeing is virtue signalling from the young in the things they say. The reverse is true for the more mature people- they actually do act to protect themselves, but are willing to let everyone else get on with their lives- in other words, they aren't panicked into sheltering and forcing everyone else to do it, too.; 4/19/20, 11:00 PM
Mark said...: Sorry, this corpse is too far gone to try to save.

Killed early, and yet they just kept on beating the body.; 4/19/20, 11:00 PM
narciso said...: Yes quinn they made of him too, everything has to be irreperably damaged thats considered edgy and sophisticated. People are flawed but given encouragement they can accomplish great things.; 4/19/20, 11:00 PM
narciso said...: Its more like altered carbon where they bring you back, the books the series seemed too out there.; 4/19/20, 11:01 PM
Drago said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/19/20, 11:02 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Mark,

What corpse? Are we beating a dead horse? Bring out yer dead...horses, too...

Oh, it's joost a rabbit!

Perhaps we should use the Holy Hand Grenade...; 4/19/20, 11:03 PM
walter said...: L.A. County down to 45% employment.; 4/19/20, 11:03 PM
narayanan said...: I don't get what is so complicated about modeling.

(worst of all is claims of proprietary model and secrecy and IP)

Maybe we should bring back the ad-agency who did this in 70's

You Tell 2 Friends & They Tell 2 Friends & So On & So On…

is it not merely how long they take to tell their friends? and how many friends they tell?; 4/19/20, 11:03 PM
Drago said...: In another direct blow against ARM and his comrades, we now have this:

Germany’s largest paper to China's president: You're endangering the world

BERLIN – The editor-in-chief of Germany’s largest paper Bild on Thursday launched a full frontal attack on China’s communist president Xi Jinping for his regime’s failure to come clean about the coronavirus outbreak and the massive human rights violations carried out by the Communist Party.

Julian Reichelt, the prominent editor-in-chief of the Bild, wrote to Jinping that “Your embassy in Berlin has addressed me in an open letter because we asked in our newspaper Bild whether China should pay for the massive economic damage the coronavirus is inflicting worldwide.

He wrote that, "You [Jinping], your government and your scientists had to know long ago that coronavirus is highly infectious, but you left the world in the dark about it. Your top experts didn't respond when Western researchers asked to know what was going on in Wuhan. You were too proud and too nationalistic to tell the truth, which you felt was a national disgrace.”

Wow. Journalists in other nations actually trying to hold ARM's ChiCom heroes to account.

Well, you won't be seeing any of that in this nation. The lefties have President Trump to frame for this and there can't be any competing narratives.; 4/19/20, 11:04 PM
Inga said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/19/20, 11:04 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: narciso,

I liked Altered Carbon. Been a long time since I read the book...I like the actor--he was in The Killing. He has a lot of range.; 4/19/20, 11:04 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Ken B. wrote: "This way we have a chance to avert both."
No, we do not.
The economic damage is accruing daily, and at an accelerating pace. It is growing exponentially.
FWIW, there is no choice about "reopening the economy." It will happen, probably sooner rather than later, and long before a vaccine is deployed. We are destroying wealth at a rate unparalleled in world history.
Cities will run out of money and lay off workers. Counties will run out of money & lay off workers. States will run out of money & lay off workers. State sales tax collections are plummeting. So are state income tax collections. States are dependent on tourism and travelers for income. All those revenue streams have cratered.; 4/19/20, 11:04 PM
walter said...: (The weather is nice); 4/19/20, 11:04 PM
Mark said...: I'll just say this over the body --

After fearing that John-Boy was killed in battle when he was missing in action, the family got the news that he had been found. Wounded, but alive.

Unfortunately, in their hoping against hope, Mama and Daddy are failing to notice that the man the authorities say is their son looks nothing like John-Boy and is in fact a completely different man.; 4/19/20, 11:05 PM
Inga said...: “Tell me how we're protecting the vulnerable now, did a bang up job with the nursing homes, basically blocked them iff with out all the tedious nailing the doors shut. But we closed everything else down.”

Since nursing home patients are fragile and can no longer care for themselves they depend on humans to care for them. Those human caretakers became infected and infected their patients, as well as visitors infecting their loved ones. Tell me how you think the nursing home population could’ve been better protected. Nursing robots?; 4/19/20, 11:06 PM
Mark said...: Well, Anne-I-Am, we certainly have enough here who have needed to go change their armor for a while.; 4/19/20, 11:07 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: As far as human beings in assisted living...the cure may be worse than the disease...especially for the demented. My mother is basically in solitary confinement. She is totally at sea...doesn't know where she is anymore. We have FaceTime with her, and she ends up in tears. My dad is living with my sister, because if he were in the kennel (what I call that depressing place), he wouldn't be able to see my mom, and we wouldn't be able to visit. He is also cognitively diminished and can't understand where Mom is and why he can't see her.

But tell me again what great care we are taking of these people.

I would rather my mom be in danger of Chinese Lung AIDS than live the last six months or so of her life scared, lonely, and isolated.; 4/19/20, 11:07 PM
Drago said...: Lewis (to Ken B): "The economic damage is accruing daily, and at an accelerating pace. It is growing exponentially.
FWIW, there is no choice about "reopening the economy." It will happen, probably sooner rather than later, and long before a vaccine is deployed. We are destroying wealth at a rate unparalleled in world history.
Cities will run out of money and lay off workers. Counties will run out of money & lay off workers. States will run out of money & lay off workers. State sales tax collections are plummeting. So are state income tax collections. States are dependent on tourism and travelers for income. All those revenue streams have cratered."

Lewis, you're speaking to a brick wall on this. In fact, even discussing the economics of this makes you a racist.

On the other hand, welcome to the club!; 4/19/20, 11:07 PM
Yancey Ward said...: You still don't get it, do you, Ken? I never believed in the claim of 2 million dead Americans- none of the initial evidence came close to suggesting that number was ever plausible. I also don't think the shutdowns have done a fucking thing to flatten the curve- all the evidence cuts against this claim of yours, too. Sweden is showing us how it would have turned out under my scenario.

If we get increases in new cases on reopening, it will just show that the shutdowns were always mistake- the virus is always waiting for us to resume our lives- a point, I think, even you have agreed with at various times- that shutdowns do have to end, and the virus will run its course through the population.; 4/19/20, 11:08 PM
Drago said...: Ken B: "If not, YW's choice, we could have faced both millions dead and economic collapse. Hard to see that as better. This way we have a chance to avert both."

We already have economic collapse.

The only question now is will it take 3 years or 5 years to fully recover.; 4/19/20, 11:09 PM
Big Mike said...: @Inga, nursing robots aren't a bad idea, actually. But the staffers should have been tested a lot more frequently and masks, gloves, and sanitary wipes more heavily used.; 4/19/20, 11:10 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Lewis Wetzel:

What is happening now is beyond the skill and experience of central bankers

I wasn't referring to monetary policy; I was talking about fiscal policy. More spending from the federal government.; 4/19/20, 11:10 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Drago is correct- the state and local governments have already started to lay people off because tax revenues have cratered- none of them had any surplus funds to last more than a month at this level of revenue. Here in TN, the cities and counties are starting with furloughs this week. The "work at home" people staycationing are about to be on unemployment. It was always only a matter of time before all the private sector people "working from home" get furloughed, too. The second wave of unemployed is about to start.; 4/19/20, 11:11 PM
Kyjo said...: @Drago, I know it’s a non-sequitur, but why on earth does The Jerusalem Post keep using Xi’s given name as though it were his surname? Bad editing to let that slip through. Imagine calling Mao “Zedong.”; 4/19/20, 11:11 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Mark,

Oh that John-Boy. I never did like him. It seems to me he has been in a recent series I wtached...but I can't download the information right now.

Soiling one's armor is a risk that I prefer to avoid. I just go armor-less. It is heavy and hot and rusts.; 4/19/20, 11:11 PM
Sebastian said...: Yancey: "I have already stated my position more than once- even if it saved 2 million American lives, the cost isn't justified. We would never spend $50 million just to save 10 generic people, or $500 million to save 100 such people. To save 2 million people that were initially proposed to be in danger, we have already incurred at least $10 trillion dollars in direct outlays and lost economic output- and that will turn out to be a low estimate"

That is one thing that will stand out in retrospect: that even on its own terms, assuming the worst and freely giving in to panic, the responses still didn't make sense by any normal standard. It was an unusually panicky panic, an epidemic of alarmism, destroying elementary rationality besides the economy.

The British calculations, as noted at lockdownsceptics.org, might be even worse, since NICE wouldn't value a QALY at more than 30K pounds, or about 200K per average sick senior with 6 years left. Actual expenditures have therefore been at least an order of magnitude above base. And that is assuming the worst-case scenarios based on supposed high CFRs and potentially overwhelmed hospital systems made any sense, and that draconian lockdowns beyond direct isolation of the actual risk groups made any material difference, contrary to what the more sensible epidemiologist have been saying for some time now.; 4/19/20, 11:11 PM
Mark said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/19/20, 11:12 PM
narciso said...: Its too much like the ice floe scenario for confort. Its a betrayal of all they have (collectively) done for us. This is humane treatment in what universe.; 4/19/20, 11:12 PM
Drago said...: Yancey: "Drago is correct- the state and local governments have already started to lay people off because tax revenues have cratered- none of them had any surplus funds to last more than a month at this level of revenue."

Just today Illinois is demanding about $46 Billion, just for its state workers.

But really, I almost feel guilty speaking about these things as I know it interferes with Ken B's all important virtue signalling.

It's the Virtue Signallers that are the real heroes.; 4/19/20, 11:13 PM
Mark said...: If it is still around, rather than being snuffed out, after the incubation period of two-three weeks despite being locked down, one does have to question what the point of the lockdown was.; 4/19/20, 11:14 PM
Drago said...: Kyjo: "@Drago, I know it’s a non-sequitur, but why on earth does The Jerusalem Post keep using Xi’s given name as though it were his surname? Bad editing to let that slip through. Imagine calling Mao “Zedong.”

I know this will make ARM very very angry, but I'm going to write it anyway: Anyone who looks so much like Winnie the Pooh deserves to get the "Cher" treatment.; 4/19/20, 11:15 PM
narciso said...: i wasnt a real big fan of the show growing up; 4/19/20, 11:15 PM
Drago said...: Mark: "If it is still around, rather than being snuffed out, after the incubation period of two-three weeks despite being locked down, one does have to question what the point of the lockdown was."

In all seriousness, how could it not be still around?; 4/19/20, 11:16 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Yeah I say Fuck you and the horse you rode in on to all the government workers. If more of them had been laid off from the beginning, this shut-down would have been terminated already. Fuck them all.

Pardon my Italian.; 4/19/20, 11:16 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Blogger Yancey Ward said...

. . .
The reverse is true for the more mature people- they actually do act to protect themselves, but are willing to let everyone else get on with their lives- in other words, they aren't panicked into sheltering and forcing everyone else to do it, too.

I think that many people -- perhaps more of the young than the old -- think that this economic lockdown can go until it safe to raise it.
It can not. We have not hit a "pause" button, we have hit a "rewind" button.; 4/19/20, 11:16 PM
narciso said...: Just like japanese political figures we invert the names.; 4/19/20, 11:16 PM
walter said...: a li'l more from Drago's Bild link:
"The Bild editor-in-chief cited a Washington Post article reporting that, “your laboratories in Wuhan have been researching coronaviruses in bats, but without maintaining the highest safety standards. Why are your toxic laboratories not as secure as your prisons for political prisoners? Would you like to explain this to the grieving widows, daughters, sons, husbands, parents of corona victims all over the world?”
He concluded that, “In your country, your people are whispering about you. Your power is crumbling. You have created an inscrutable, non-transparent China. Before Corona, China was known as a surveillance state. Now, China is known as a surveillance state that infected the world with a deadly disease.That is your political legacy.”; 4/19/20, 11:17 PM
Inga said...: The nursing home and assisted living industry is a multi billion dollar business. One if the dirtiest businesses there are. The elderly residents get awful care. I would be happy if every last one of them were to be forced to shut down. Not only are nursing homes and assisted living facilities, especially the dementia units, hell holes to live in, they are hell holes to work in.; 4/19/20, 11:17 PM
Drago said...: Lewis: "It can not. We have not hit a "pause" button, we have hit a "rewind" button."

I think people are being fooled by the stock market gains made recently that brought back about 50% of the market value.

But that doesn't reflect accurately the devastation to main streets all across the country.

I don't want to scare Ken B, but its possible that most people wont even be able to afford the minimum necessary to virtue signal at will.; 4/19/20, 11:18 PM
narciso said...: Sometimes it has to be said, the policy makers (Not the rank and file) who made this procustean rules dont have to abide by them.; 4/19/20, 11:20 PM
Yancey Ward said...: Mark, it is worse than that- the lockdowns in some places are now in their 8th week with no real, solid evidence of abatement in new cases- just flagging testing rates. The claim that saving medical resources was a prime goal doesn't seem to have mattered in New York, who never ran out of ICU beds, ventilators, or anything else that was claimed to have mattered, and yet they still did worse than Italy. It is becoming clear that half the deaths are in nursing homes- everywhere- half the deaths. How hard would it have been to focus our efforts on protecting the nursing homes. Instead, we seem to have done everything but that.; 4/19/20, 11:20 PM
Mark said...: I do fear for our republic in November, however, because the legitimacy of the election will be at great risk due to the high potential for fraud.

I'm only have joking when I say there is a chance that the election returns in some states could come back 99 percent for one party across the board.; 4/19/20, 11:21 PM
narciso said...: Spanish has equally strong cognates that i dont dispense liberally.; 4/19/20, 11:22 PM
Drago said...: walter: "a li'l more from Drago's Bild link:
"The Bild editor-in-chief cited a Washington Post article reporting that, “your laboratories in Wuhan have been researching coronaviruses in bats, but without maintaining the highest safety standards......"

Careful.

As of yesterday (yes, yesterday) Beijing Boy ARM was STILL arguing that there was no way to determine accurately just where this virus came from.

Yep.

ARM might just be the last human being on earth buying into the moronic ChiCom propaganda that the virus originated somewhere other than China and was brought into China.

Spoiler: the ChiCom govt just today was claiming that a US athletic team brought the virus into China last winter and thats how it all started.

Someone should ask ARM how it is he can write what he does and still sleep at night? (Second Spoiler: we already know. Its Sham-peachment III); 4/19/20, 11:22 PM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: Oh that John-Boy. I never did like him.

His apotheosis was probably Battle Beyond The Stars, although Sybil Danning is the one people remember..; 4/19/20, 11:23 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Blogger J. Farmer said...

@Lewis Wetzel:

What is happening now is beyond the skill and experience of central bankers

I wasn't referring to monetary policy; I was talking about fiscal policy. More spending from the federal government.
That's what I was talking about, too. How much deficit spending can occur before we go off the rails? What models are the central bankers (& politicians) looking at?
Interest rates, before the covid-19 crisis, were near zero for the feds. Well, then why can't the feds lend me (& all other Americans) a million bucks @ 1%? I'd pay the interest every month, guaranteed.
There are limits to fiscal spending. What are they? How close are we to those limits?; 4/19/20, 11:24 PM
walter said...: Send 'em to Inga's 'Tosa tent city for care.; 4/19/20, 11:24 PM
Inga said...: “@Inga, nursing robots aren't a bad idea, actually. But the staffers should have been tested a lot more frequently and masks, gloves, and sanitary wipes more heavily used.”

If only there had been enough PPE and supplies I wouldn’t have had to sew 300 masks for nursing staff. I donated about 150 to area nursing homes and 150 to Milwaukee Children’s hospital early on.; 4/19/20, 11:24 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Drago and Lewis,

The people who screech about safety are those that are still getting a corporate paycheck and have no reason to think that will change. Or those who have safely retired and have enough not to worry about losses.

The social breakdown that can occur when millions and millions of people are broke and have no prospects is frightening. Far more frightening than losing even tens of thousands of old and fat people.

I think rational people understand this--hence the run on guns and ammunition. While things are holding together well for now, that will change if people can't buy food and/or if food becomes scarce. No one gives a shit about their neighbors when their kids are starving.

Our "betters" who keep ratcheting up the tyranny are safe. They live in gated communities. They have bodyguards. They will not go hungry. Shit, they are getting their hair cut and buying buttloads of expensive ice cream. Some of them are getting even richer off of this.

The rest of us? We will live the train wreck up close and personal.

A buddy of mine who owns a gun store back home keeps sending me magazines for my 1911s. I think I am up to 20, and he keeps sending more.; 4/19/20, 11:24 PM
Birkel said...: The problem people have when surveying the options is, I believe, largely because they cannot understand large numbers. $10,000,000,000,000 USD is just too much to properly appreciate. That is why I started the idea - since picked up - of writing 2,000,000 insurance policies with the insured TBD @ $1,000,000 per person.

That would be two trillion dollars pledged (and an unlikely amount to be needed).

And we know for a fact that most of the lost lives are not insurable for $1MM USD.

My thought experiment was designed to help people comprehend the large numbers.

Oh, and people would still be distancing themselves and avoided infection. People act reasonably if well informed.

But I am cursed to see clearly the things in front of us. The deaths attributable to the loss of wealth will be tens of millions if we do not reverse course quickly.

A word of advice: If credit markets seize, truckers will demand cash to haul loads. Remember that when you are hungry.; 4/19/20, 11:26 PM
walter said...: "a US athletic team brought the virus into China last winter and thats how it all started."
You mean at the miltary's direction?; 4/19/20, 11:28 PM
BlackjohnX said...: Re: Farmer & Wetzel about old vs young. I'm 75 and most of those I associate with, the majority being handball players and in very good physical condition, have not suffered the WuFlu, or if we have, I suspect I had a touch of it earlier this year, it has had negligible effect. In my opinion, good cardio vascular condition counters the belief that old age, in and of itself is a factor warranting being shuttered away. The old ones who are dying, are in almost all cases suffering from some other major problem or are in horrible physical condition. Every day, it seems more apparent to me that the chicken littles have finally won the day. The ghost of Malthus continues to walk the Earth, always finding new reasons to preach doom and gloom.; 4/19/20, 11:31 PM
Kyjo said...: In my personal experience, age isn’t really much of a dividing line between safety zealots and renegades. Personal outlook, political orientation, and sex (more women are safety zealots, more men are renegades—which doesn’t seem surprising) are bigger factors than age. But I also live in the most politically liberal region of California; perhaps elsewhere the apparent age effect is driven, at least in part, by younger people being more liberal.; 4/19/20, 11:31 PM
Yancey Ward said...: I never watched The Waltons at all, though I did see the movie from the early 60s based on the book. That movie, by the way, has a young Veronica Cartright, who is most remembered for her role in Alien.; 4/19/20, 11:31 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: I have a friend here in crazy Cali who keeps saying to me, "Pharma, when this is all over, people are going to be surprised about where this came from." I just shine him one, because I have no desire to argue his crazy conspiracy theories. And he is so Trump-deranged that he can't form a coherent thought about the man. I am afraid that people like this will never be convinced. No matter what.; 4/19/20, 11:32 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Blogger Drago said...
Lewis: "It can not. We have not hit a "pause" button, we have hit a "rewind" button."
I think people are being fooled by the stock market gains made recently that brought back about 50% of the market value.
I am an optimist. I think that most of the restrictions will be lifted soon. Civil unrest is ticking up. Governors will soon see how the restrictions that they have imposed is harming their constituents, and they will turn pale.
People don't like to starve in the dark when there is a simple remedy at hand.; 4/19/20, 11:33 PM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: At some point Irish Democracy kicks in.; 4/19/20, 11:35 PM
narciso said...: They wont be making a us version of fauda anytime soon, can you imagine the mess they would make.; 4/19/20, 11:35 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Lewis,

What we can hope is that red states begin to open, while blue states tighten the ratchet. (Masks are mandatory in Oakland as of tomorrow.)

The red states will start to collect tax revenues that the blue states miss. Trump will, inshallah, refuse to send our tax money to the assclowns who run the blue states. The blue states will cave because money talks, and bullshit walks.; 4/19/20, 11:36 PM
Mark said...: Civil unrest is ticking up. Governors will soon see how the restrictions that they have imposed is harming their constituents, and they will turn pale.

Don't underestimate the propensity for obstinance and spite in some.; 4/19/20, 11:37 PM
narciso said...: Thats very gertrude stein of them,; 4/19/20, 11:38 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: narciso,

No. No US version of Fauda. Because the Jews are not romantics. They have no illusions about the enemy they face. At least most of them. How truly sheltered-in-place we are here in the US. Not to have to worry if the bus our kids get on will blow up. Or the pizza parlor they go to after school. Or now, if some asshole wielding a knife will come after them. Talk about a scourge. A plague.; 4/19/20, 11:38 PM
a psychiatrist who learned from veterans said...: I'm thinking about what it means that the Remdesivir trials stopped in China. On a 'Make China Pay' podcast Mr. Podhoretz said China might have committed a tort amounting to was it $2 trillion? I don't think it would be moral to invest in China per se, selling them services and goods, OK. I read that under color of controlling coronavirus, pro-democracy activists are being arrested in Hong Kong. I speculate that the Chinese government stopped the trials to prevent a positive result. Too much damage is being done to the U.S in the absence of a treatment which the tests might have supported.; 4/19/20, 11:40 PM
narciso said...: The settlers are like the frontiersmen of old, maybe like the ones who settled australia, they were tough because they had to be, you had to scrounge for every morsel the government was either remote or corrupt.; 4/19/20, 11:41 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: But, Anne-I-am, I live in bluer-than-blue Hawaii. For the next 73 days.
I've been planning my retirement for two years, and, luckily, moved a lot money from equities to money market in January. I will move to Wisconsin on July 1st, if the planes are still flying.
The blue state governors talk an awful lot about "listening to the experts," but those experts are public health people, not economy people, not bankers.
Wait til they get a load of their state's balance sheet on May 1st. Things will open fast.; 4/19/20, 11:43 PM
narayanan said...: Deep State and Establishment sabotage of Trump and Mnuchin; 4/19/20, 11:43 PM
narayanan said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 4/19/20, 11:44 PM
narciso said...: Yes the native americans wouldnt bloe thenselves up, but we are at heart settler states like those two examples. Some are rougher than others. The late ariel sharon was like andrew jackson, he wasnt polished, that didnt get the job done; 4/19/20, 11:45 PM
Inga said...: “I'm thinking about what it means that the Remdesivir trials stopped in China.”

https://q13fox.com/2020/04/19/study-remdesivir-prevented-disease-progression-in-monkeys-with-covid-19/

“Monkeys infected with COVID-19 that were treated with remdesivir, a drug from Gilead Sciences Inc., were shown to be in “significantly better health” than those who were untreated, according to a new study from the National Institutes of Health (NIH).

The health organization shared the findings in a news release on April 17, noting that the amount of virus in the lungs of the monkeys who had received remdesivir was “significantly lower” than another group of monkeys who had received no treatment.

Additionally, monkeys in the treated group also had less damage caused to their lungs by COVID-19 than the non-treated group.”; 4/19/20, 11:46 PM
walter said...: "(Masks are mandatory in Oakland as of tomorrow.)"
Oh..that will go well.; 4/19/20, 11:46 PM
narciso said...: Take dr cornett who is our 'obiwan kenobi, shes nuttier than a walnut grove.; 4/19/20, 11:47 PM
Clark said...: I started a new sourdough starter today. It's been about ten years since I kept a sourdough starter going. I have also made progress on cutting up and splitting a couple of huge Chinese elms and a silver maple that came down over a year ago. Two new, nice, neat wood piles have arisen, with a third and fourth yet to come. And I am just getting to the end of The Doomsday Book, which I've been reading a little at a time every night. Weird that a friend of mine gave me that book for Christmas. It is about a time traveller who gets stuck in 1348 near Oxford. It's all about epidemics: one in the past and one in the future.; 4/19/20, 11:47 PM
narayanan said...: CTH; 4/19/20, 11:48 PM
Mark said...: Fauci: "The Emphasis We've Been Hearing Is Essentially Testing Is Everything, And It Isn't"

Dr. Anthony Fauci announced there will be enough tests to take the country through Phase One of the White House recovery plan to reopen the economy.

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI: "The other thing is the difference between testing and monitoring out there — what’s out there. The difference between what we really need it for, for phase one, is to be able to identify, isolate, contact trace. A very important part of when you’re putting — pulling back gradually and slowly on the mitigation, and you have people who might be infected — you want to know they’re infected; you want to put them in care. That is something that we absolutely need to do.

"But there are other ways we — I want to make sure people understand that — not to underestimate the importance of testing. Testing is a part, an important part, of a multifaceted way that we are going to control and ultimately end this outbreak.

"So please don’t anyone interpret it that I’m downplaying testing, but the emphasis that we’ve been hearing is essentially, “testing is everything,” and it isn’t. It’s the kinds of things that we’ve been doing — the mitigation strategies — that are an important part of that. . . ."; 4/19/20, 11:48 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Lewis,

My point exactly. Except they will push for the rest of us suckers to bail their asses out. I hope Trump tells them to fuck off.

California is the one blue state that ought to open up, pronto. Especially NoCal. The number of Chinese people we had flying back and forth boggles the mind. The gal who does my nails is Chinese, and her family all flew over at the end of January for Chinese New Year. Big party, tons of people.

But Gavin Gruesome is busy laying down benchmarks for opening that are unattainable. \

I have lost all patience with people who bark at me about "Distance! Distance!" I am very close to telling them I am going to cough on them. Or bleed on them. Or something. The insane terror that our elites have instilled in people about this virus is unforgivable. Karma would be one of them getting assassinated by some terror-stricken constituent.; 4/19/20, 11:49 PM
narciso said...: I cant imagine living in california, the raw crazy might dial straight up to eleven.; 4/19/20, 11:52 PM
Mark said...: Virginia Gov. Coonman Northam: Trump Admin "Delusional" To Claim U.S. Has Enough Coronavirus Testing Capacity

Sunday on CNN’s "State of the Union," Democratic Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam said the Trump administration was "delusional" to claim every U.S. state as the capacity to perform coronavirus tests at a level consistent with the plan to re-open the economy.

So much for "listen to the experts."; 4/19/20, 11:52 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Lewis Wetzel:

How much deficit spending can occur before we go off the rails? What models are the central bankers (& politicians) looking at?

We have long-run productive capacity, functioning fiscal institutions, and good taxing authority. The US can handle considerably more debt without significant problems. So long as we have the income to comfortably service debt payments, we can borrow indefinitely.; 4/19/20, 11:52 PM
Kyjo said...: Another study:

Of the 116 specimens positive for SARS-CoV-2, 24 (20.7%) were positive for 1 or more additional pathogens, compared with 294 of the 1101 specimens (26.7%) negative for SARS-CoV-2 (Table 1) (difference, 6.0% [95% CI, –2.3% to 14.3%]). The most common co-infections were rhinovirus/enterovirus (6.9%), respiratory syncytial virus (5.2%), and non–SARS-CoV-2 Coronaviridae (4.3%) (Table 2). None of the differences in rates of non–SARS-CoV-2 pathogens between specimens positive and negative for SARS-CoV-2 were statistically significant at P < .05.

Of 318 specimens positive for 1 or more non–SARS-CoV-2 pathogens, 24 (7.5%) were also positive for SARS-CoV-2. Among 899 specimens negative for other pathogens, 92 (10.2%) were positive for SARS-CoV-2 (difference, 2.7% [95% CI, –1.0% to 6.4%]).

... these results suggest that routine testing for non–SARS-CoV-2 respiratory pathogens during the COVID-19 pandemic is unlikely to provide clinical benefit unless a positive result would change disease management (eg, neuraminidase inhibitors for influenza in appropriate patients).

Hm. Could this also suggest that 20% of symptomatic SARS2-positive patients may actually be suffering from a different respiratory pathogen, and just happen to have some SARS2 in the system as well?; 4/19/20, 11:54 PM
narciso said...: Quilted northam, you couldnt even make him up if you tried.; 4/19/20, 11:54 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: Masks in Oakland.

Well, Oakland is not monolithic. The hills are full of rich, frightened white people. My local wine/cheese store had a sign up on Friday requiring masks and gloves. Since I popped in after an 8-mile run, I had neither. The proprietor told me I would be wearing a mask starting Monday. I just laughed. I will put a scarf around my face if I go into Safeway, but I manage to avoid going anywhere with lots of people otherwise. And if someone thinks I am going to wear a mask running, they have another think coming.

I did see a gal today, running in 75 degree weather, really long (beautiful) hair (which I only mention because in my experience, hair is HOT), long tights, a heavy cloth mask, and a DOWN JACKET. I was as close to nekkid as I could get and not get arrested. Just bizarre.; 4/19/20, 11:54 PM
Inga said...: Here’s a study of Remdesivir on humans!; 4/19/20, 11:54 PM
narayanan said...: Remdesivir trials stopped in China
))))))______

why not try it directly on the pangolin? to see what happens to the virus reservoirs they carry!; 4/19/20, 11:55 PM
narciso said...: She might be a lizard, just saying.; 4/19/20, 11:56 PM
walter said...: Mark,
FWIW, Redfern (and Birx) outlined immediate ability to track via "syndromic" county by county data that apparently tracks distinct from normal flu pattern.. so yes..the specific testing isn't everything.; 4/19/20, 11:58 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: narciso,

I have lived here in Crazyville for 4 1/2 years now. At first, I found it amusing. Now, I am just tired of it. The things people say to me, assuming I am as progressive as they are...

Since I am almost 60, and have lived through enough catastrophe in the past 8 years to last a lifetime, I don't put up with the bullshit. I just tell them they are fools and explain why. What is interesting is that often, I have people who overhear the conversation come up to me afterward and thank me. There are more closet conservatives here than one would think. The GOP has done a terrible job of pulling people together here.; 4/19/20, 11:58 PM
Anne-I-Am said...: She might have been a lizard. But I saw no evidence of a tail. Tails are hard to hide. They're bulky.; 4/19/20, 11:59 PM
Kyjo said...: Re: my comment @11:54pm, I should rather say “up to 20%.”; 4/20/20, 12:01 AM
Lewis Wetzel said...: J. Farmer said...
@Lewis Wetzel:
How much deficit spending can occur before we go off the rails? What models are the central bankers (& politicians) looking at?
We have long-run productive capacity, functioning fiscal institutions, and good taxing authority. The US can handle considerably more debt without significant problems. So long as we have the income to comfortably service debt payments, we can borrow indefinitely.
4/19/20, 11:52 PM

But . . . how certain are you of this? We are in a non-linear region of the curve. What happens if the Chinese demand for American debt ceases, through policy or market forces?; 4/20/20, 12:01 AM
walter said...: (not to mention the more reliable indicators of hospitalizations and deaths); 4/20/20, 12:01 AM
William said...: Here in NYC, I don't imagine anybody travels the subway for fun, but a lot of homeless use it for shelter. The subway should be closed at night....They talk about the possibility of virus spread at these demonstrations. Maybe so, but those demonstrations are not so packed as the subway cars. It's kind of a conundrum. The city cannot function without the subways, and the virus cannot be eradicated whilst people use the subway...They've cut down on the trains. They have to find some way of cutting down on the passengers.; 4/20/20, 12:02 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: narciso,

So I am watching the most recent episode of Homeland...Saul just went to get a drink. The only recognizable bottle on the drinks cart? Drambuie. Really. What are the chances that a US installation in whatever-stan would have Drambuie? SMH.; 4/20/20, 12:03 AM
Yancey Ward said...: There still idiots calling for mass testing everyone for the virus itself- despite two months worth of data showing that the capacity to do so isn't there, and won't be there- in any country, ever. This is what Fauci is pushing back against. Even if you had all the reagents you could possibly want, and all the equipment, you still face the impractical plan of sampling singe person in the country every few days. Seriously, anyone thinking this was ever possible is just an idiot. I can't even wrap my mind around how someone could believe this would ever be possible in a time frame for it to be effective. Governors who try to make this a hurdle for reopening won't reopen until 2030.; 4/20/20, 12:03 AM
narciso said...: Yes free thought should be appreciated, but you cant get through any of the papers or very few channels, you have look for samizdat sources, the kind i come across or like minded folks bring to my attention; 4/20/20, 12:03 AM
Mark said...: And now . . .

Jim-Bob in the summer of '42.; 4/20/20, 12:05 AM
narciso said...: Unlikely but this series is probably driving patinkin to drink, everyone is acting crazier than normal because the writers have just given up, like senioritis in highschool.; 4/20/20, 12:06 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: Some upsides to the lockdown:

City workers are finally getting laid off.

Mass transit is being exposed as a plague-petri dish.

Disposable plastic bags are suddenly in fashion again.

Liberals are buying guns--and are dismayed at their fucking gun control laws.

Crazy feminists are learning what it is stay-at-home moms do all day.

Any others?; 4/20/20, 12:07 AM
William said...: I worked three blocks from ground zero. I would never go so far as to describe myself as an essential employee, but, back in the day, I was marginally useful, and some work had to be done on site. The ground zero area was closed to public transportation. The company I worked for had a shape up point on 14th St. They took us down to the work site in a hired van. I wonder if larger companies like CVS, Duane Reade, et al. could not find some way for ferrying their employees to work that allows them to get there without travelling by subway.; 4/20/20, 12:07 AM
narciso said...: Yes it is a teaching lesson, for many, cracking through platos cave wall.; 4/20/20, 12:08 AM
Mark said...: Joe Pera eats a meatball.; 4/20/20, 12:09 AM
Anne-I-Am said...: My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die.

A Top 10 movie.

A key line: "Life is pain, princess. Anyone who says otherwise is selling something."

Samizdat, narciso. Ah, at least there are more channels now. Instapundit is a great source.; 4/20/20, 12:09 AM
narciso said...: Oh thats a great film, and you could put vizzini in the place of any of these talki g heads or pompous potentates; 4/20/20, 12:10 AM
Mark said...: Over 200 (accessible) channels and nothing is ever on.; 4/20/20, 12:11 AM
William said...: Homeland lost me when they started to pretend the Carrie's bipolarity was some kind of superpower. She'd go off her meds and use her manic energy and focus to leap that last hurdle. That's still better than Ozark where when the bilpolar guy went off his meds he became absurdly stupid....I don't think that the way bipolarity works.; 4/20/20, 12:14 AM
Birkel said...: Smug's last betrays a terrible ignorance.; 4/20/20, 12:16 AM
Yancey Ward said...: I have seen "The Princess Bride" so many times, I know what the next line is pretty much in the entire film. This is a film people will be watching 50 years from now, like "Wizard of Oz"- it is simply timeless.; 4/20/20, 12:17 AM
narciso said...: I dont think so either,

William goldman really did say the essential truth about hollywood that is writ large 'no one knows nothing'

Furthermore if you try to mine the numbers like berenson has done you get shouted down.; 4/20/20, 12:18 AM
Drago said...: Fauci: "So please don’t anyone interpret it that I’m downplaying testing, but the emphasis that we’ve been hearing is essentially, “testing is everything,” and it isn’t. It’s the kinds of things that we’ve been doing — the mitigation strategies — that are an important part of that. . . ."

They didnt get the deaths they needed.

Their ventilator shortage scream-a-thon did not pan out.

Their attempt to transfer guilt from their ChiCom allies to Trump has been dealt a death blow by the Europeans.

They couldnt hide all their public commentary downplaying the virus early and claiming Trump over-reacted.

So, by process of elimination, the dems/left/LLR-left is now running with Testing Shortage!!!!

Followed by Trump Depression.

They dont have anything else now, unless some moron wants to resurrect Putin somehow.; 4/20/20, 12:19 AM