Here's the full timeline for the Trump presidency, showing that you'd have to go back to that first month in 2017 to get this level of support:
Yes, it's still in the negative. Anyway, let me sketch out reasons that occur to me, and then help me out in the comments:
1. In a crisis, people look to the leader they have, and they want to believe that person will help us.
2. Trump is on TV a lot, performing his presidential role, in real time, without media commentary, and it's working as intended, to make people feel that competent people are working hard.
3. The Democratic Party primary has receded into near nothingness, so we're not hearing the candidates attacking Trump very much. We're not thinking so much about replacing Trump, which can't happen until January 2021. Biden has the nomination, and his efforts to remain relevant during the crisis are uninspiring. Best to look away for now, let events play out, and — if you're a Democrat — hope there's something left to make a campaign out of in the fall. What's the point of hating Trump right now? Life is hard enough, and who wants to be a big pessimist?
4. [ADDED at 3:56 the same afternoon.] Trump haters had heard that Trump was a fascist, looking to find a way to dictatorship, but it turns out he hasn't taken this opportunity to make a big power grab. He's even getting criticized for not being coercive and overbearing enough, as he works with governors and private companies. Trump's behavior in this real crisis may be easing fears about imagined things.
5. ...
Posts
514 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 400 of 514 Newer› Newest»Ken B said...
Inga
Notice how many comments are about Obama. That's a big motivation here: resentment over how the press treated Obama. It has blinded them.
TBF, the difference is beyond striking.
MayBee: "Cuomo just said we will find that Covid was here much earlier than has been reported. Yancy Ward and Achilles, among others, have been saying that for days.
Cuomo also just said the largest cohort of Covid havers, we will find, are people who never knew they had it- no symptoms or not enough to get tested."
This is probably the most important point all along. We will never really know the true population of those who were exposed and recovered with either no or minimal symptoms and when that really started because the dems beloved Chinese lied about it for so long and the dems/lefties insisted that it was no big deal right up until the moment they said it was the biggest deal ever.
We are 13 days past when the NBA cancelled their season, about 10 since schools closed and social distancing and business closings began to be pushed by state and local officials. New York City appears to be in big trouble, but other cities should be a week or so away from peak in cases. That's if social distancing worked.
But for the moment corona virus is the pandemic that put the "pan" in panic.
Panic + Dem = pan[dem]ic.
Also, my governor Whitmer is awful.
She issued her lockdown order without clarifying essential services and businesses. For example-- what if you were supposed to close on your home sale this Friday? What if you were supposed to pick up a car on Thursday? Can hardware stores stay open so people can buy things for needed home repairs?
She was interviewed about this last night on the local news. Twice, the newsperson asked if a hardware store could stay open. Both times, she went on a rant about using hand santizer and saving lives.
The interviewer said, "but do you understand there are gray areas in your order?" To which she replied, "OF course there are gray areas! There are gray areas in life!" and then went on again about hand sanitizer, etc. Never clarified her order.
"1. In a crisis, people look to the leader they have, and they want to believe that person will help us."
This is the reason, the only plausible reason people could feel confident in Trump's handling of this situation.
"Leland said...
I think Trump is doing a great job, but I've come to a decision that more needs to be done. I therefore ask that Trump shutdowns the non-essential parts of the federal government until this health emergency is over. No backpay. Just the same checks everyone else is getting."
Absolutely. And states too. Wisconsin should furlough with no back pay every non-essential...and I mean really non-essential...worker. This would free up a lot money to support everyone in need.
Wife just scored some Charmin at CVS.
I think we just turned the corner.
Back on the thread topic: I've watched almost all the daily briefings from start to finish (beats trying to work!).
My impression: There are some undeniably weird things about Trump (and I'm as pro-Trump as anyone I know), and the more you watch him the more they smack you in the face. Still and all, he's surrounded by and seems to have mutually respectful relationships with some very sharp experts (Dr. Birks in particular seems awesome), and it's hard to imagine too many people who would hang in there for an hour or more getting peppered with questions by a hostile press corps like it's no big deal. (Needless to say, not Joe Biden.)
For whatever missteps may have occurred at the outset, I view this all as very reassuring, and I'm guessing I'm not alone.
Jeff Weimer
I agree. The press is shit. Obama got kisses even when he screwed up. Resentment is natural. But they are letting this completely blind them to reality. People are in danger now and the reaction is “what about how they treated Obama.”
there are gray areas in your order?
They shut down the copier toner suppliers!
Drago,
We will figure it out eventually. The PCR test needs an active viral load. Someone will come up with an antibody test which will determine who has had the virus.
because, these same jackalopes, klain, Cameron et al, are judging the response, and their failures are rarely remarked upon, say h1ni, so those are the choices,
@Drago:
This is probably the most important point all along. We will never really know the true population of those who were exposed and recovered with either no or minimal symptoms and when that really started because the dems beloved Chinese lied about it for so long and the dems/lefties insisted that it was no big deal right up until the moment they said it was the biggest deal ever.
Yes. 3 Million Chinese visit the US each year. If you add all tourists, wow, it's about 75 Million foreign tourists each year.
That's a lotta bugs circulating about, likely including this one. The good news, though, is that's a lotta herd immunity here that few folks know about. Hence, the relatively small numbers in the US.
Achilles, Yancey and Drago and others have been right all along.
Xmas: "Drago,
We will figure it out eventually. The PCR test needs an active viral load. Someone will come up with an antibody test which will determine who has had the virus."
Yes, we will definitively know the full extent of the spread and exposure in real time in the coming weeks and months, but we will never really know how rapidly it spread since the dems beloved ChiComs kept their "Chernobyl" hidden for so long.
teve uhr said...
Michael K Your logic escapes me
I know. It usually does. Maybe you should think about your level of TDS.
Ken B: "Jeff Weimer
I agree. The press is shit. Obama got kisses even when he screwed up. Resentment is natural. But they are letting this completely blind them to reality. People are in danger now and the reaction is “what about how they treated Obama.”
You literally just accused me of lacking "moral seriousness" for daring to ask about the stats on those hospitalized and treated in NY ICU's.
So, perhaps you shouldn't be the one carrying that message.
Michael K
In fairness, Uhr was only noticing that many Democrats will never give a Trump any credit no matter what he does.
"Biden seems irrelevant now and will be even more so by the convention."
Irrelevant? He's fucking invisible? Where is he? He is in complete radio/video silence. Is he infected and being treated? Is he trying to figure out what he can say or do that will appear pertinent? Is he dead?
Whatever the case may be, Biden is done.
Cookie
He is invisible because the Democrats want him invisible. Why might that be? He is going senile and is visibly not up to the job is my bet.
Where is he?
He's out by the pool talking to Corn Pop.
Does the Senate really need to debate before this vote? All nonessential blather should be banned.
No Drago, your lack of moral seriousness is shown by your refusal to even consider that there might be a danger and by your dismissal of the victims we have already seen. You have been unserious since this started.
But you’re not the worst offender here I grant you that.
Irrelevant? He's fucking invisible? Where is he? He is in complete radio/video silence. Is he infected and being treated? Is he trying to figure out what he can say or do that will appear pertinent?
@Cook is on fire!
Is he dead?
How would we tell?:)
Trump mentions chloroquine, so Gov Sisolak of Nevada prohibits its use against covid-19. That'll show him, Steve.
Republican Seantor Richard Burr sued for dumping stocks ahead of coronavirus panic
Just got off a tele-visit (they're doing that now, smart) with my Infectious Disease doc. Almost exactly three years ago I had hip replacement done, and picked up not one but two surgical infections. One good bit of news, I learned that the antibiotic Keflex that I'm still on (at a high dose) is effective against bacterial pneumonia, which is what's killing a lot of those who die.
I mentioned that it a bad time to be an ID doc, and he said obviously it provides a lot of professional interest and learning, but it is frustrating not being able to do too much. He said they're keeping up with the workload. I wished him luck in not getting sick himself and he seemed appreciative.
He also opined that he fears "one size fit's all" approach. He specifically said "NYC is bad, but Wisconsin is not NYC"
Whatever the case may be, Biden is done.
But it's still too early to slip in the ringer, which is what the DNC had in mind all along.
You can tell Dr. Birks is working along side Trump, because there is no YASSSS KWEEEENing of her. No Fiona Hill-type love and praise.
Just as General Eisenhower had to balance the demands of the US and Britain during WWII, Trump has to balance the demands of the epidemiologists and the economic advisers. I'd say he's doing a great job. He has what so many lack: Common sense.
Someone will eventually get around to random sampling of the population with immunoassays for anti-bodies specific to COVID-19. If those studies show 100s of times as many infected than is shown by "Total Confirmed Cases", the battles to get these papers published will be epic.
I do find it odd that no one has started this yet- the tests now exist- they aren't more technically difficult to design and run than the RT-PCR tests. The CDC should be using these tests to give us some idea of the extent of infection. So why haven't they?
ARM: "Republican Seantor Richard Burr sued for dumping stocks ahead of coronavirus panic"
It's about time. Don't expect the DOJ to get after him though. There would be far too many others caught up in the same game.
From ARM's link: "Wyndham Hotels shareholder Alan Jacobson filed the lawsuit Monday in Washington, DC, federal court, alleging that the North Carolina Republican “acted as a scofflaw in a time of national crisis” by exploiting inside information to dump up to $1.7 million in stocks before the pandemic caused global markets to collapse.
The complaint focuses on Burr and his wife’s sale of as much as $150,000 worth of stock in Wyndham, the international hotel chain that has taken a beating from the coronavirus pandemic."
"scofflaw", that sums up a big chunk of them.
@ARM,
May we link arms in agreeing that Sen. Richard Burr is a fucking disgrace for this, and ten other important ways?
Maybee said: Cuomo just said we will find that Covid was here much earlier than has been reported. Yancy Ward and Achilles, among others, have been saying that for days.
A lot of people here in Arizona were very sick in February with COVID-19 symptoms. My wife was one of them. Several of her running club friends reported similar problems. All felt it was really serious.
Yesterday we were closing a car deal and the Finance Manager (in his late 30's) looked shocked when she told her story. He was pretty focused on his work, but looked up and said, "I had that same thing in February. I could not breathe or get out of bed".
Who knows? I am looking forward to the research that will be done after this crisis passes.
Ken B: "No Drago, your lack of moral seriousness is shown by your refusal to even consider that there might be a danger and by your dismissal of the victims we have already seen."
2 lies right off the bat.
Ken B: "You have been unserious since this started."
Since you have defined asking for the stats on victims as lacking "moral seriousness", I will wear your charge with honor.
Or is that you simply won't countenance any questions for which the answers might reflect badly on Cuomo? You seem unusually protective of him.
Yancey Ward: "I do find it odd that no one has started this yet- the tests now exist- they aren't more technically difficult to design and run than the RT-PCR tests."
The self testing options are going to accelerate this greatly.
Of course, by simply referring to numbers I continue to run the risk of "moral unseriousness" according to Ken B.
Trump has to balance the demands of the epidemiologists and the economic advisers.
Right. Those who give no weight to economics are no better then those who don't care about deaths. As such it's offensive when they preen in judgement of others.
Returning to the topic:
Dems floating Cuomo name to replace, Slow Joe Biden?
Money quote: "Democrats are increasingly worried that Joe Biden will have trouble being relevant and compelling in the long four months between now and when he is nominated in July. Lloyd Constantine, who was a senior policy adviser to New York governor Eliot Spitzer from 2007 to 2008, puts it bluntly: “Biden is a melting ice cube. Those of us who have closely watched as time ravaged the once sharp or even brilliant minds of loved ones and colleagues, recognize what is happening to the good soldier Joe.”
meawhile the senate is debating for 24 hours, talk about hot air,
India just ordered a complete country-wide lockdown and is getting praise from all the elites everywhere. At least 80% of the India's population literally lives hand to mouth. The country couldn't be locked down for more than a week without people starting to starve.
Bay Area Guy: "Returning to the topic:
Dems floating Cuomo name to replace, Slow Joe Biden?"
I'm beginning to think that is really what's driving Ken B's and others reflexive push back on any questions relating to Cuomo.
I don't think Cuomo will be the nominee unless the rest of the country ends up suffering as much as New York has from COVID-19. Otherwise, people will ask why New York fucked it up so bad.
Bay Area Guy said...
May we link arms in agreeing that Sen. Richard Burr is a fucking disgrace for this, and ten other important ways?
We may. Kind of you to ask.
But, yes, Biden won't be the nominee. His performance in just the last few days makes that blindingly obvious.
"a complete country-wide lockdown"
Did you see the pictures? A lockdown in India still means millions of people in urban areas sharing very close quarters.
I don't see that as a feasible option, yes burr enabled this vekakte Russian pantomime, who does wyndham hotel fund, I would be amiss not to consider this lawfare,
Yancey Ward said...
I don't think Cuomo will be the nominee
Nor do I, if for no other reason than there is no obvious path to make it happen. Are all the Biden voters just going to say, 'Nah, we changed our minds, we want Andrew'. And the Bernie supporters would go ape-shit, Cuomo is to the right of most in the Democrat party.
"Michael K Your logic escapes me. After 9/11 Democrats in large numbers supported Bush"
For about two minutes. Then they segued into reveling in American casualties. Something I will never forget. Fuck those pieces of shit.
narciso: "I don't see that as a feasible option, yes burr enabled this vekakte Russian pantomime, who does wyndham hotel fund, I would be amiss not to consider this lawfare,"
Correct. It is no accident that of all the creeps in the House/Senate who pull this crap, Burr is the one sued....when he isn't up for reelection again until 2022....and there is a dem governor who would appoint a replacement....
That's convenient....
Bruce Hayden wrote:
Contrast that to getting to work in Manhattan, where you have to stand and walk in close proximity with hundreds, maybe even thousands, of strangers, riding the subway, etc. you get far enough out of cities, and you are effectively quarantined by the low population density, and, thus opportunities for infection.
3/25/20, 10:49 AM
Just last week, Never Trump nitwits Jen Rubin and Rick Wilson were gleefully tweeting out that Trump voters would be hardest hit by the Chinese flu because of their age. You don't have to be an epidemiologist to know that cities are always the hotspots when contagious diseases break out and I doubt very much if the infected people in NYC, LA, Seattle and Chicago are MAGA types.
their donations are 2 and 4/1 democrat
Cracker Emcee: "For about two minutes. Then they segued into reveling in American casualties. Something I will never forget."
Michael Moore was out there within hours telling the islamic supremacists to attack Texas instead of NY.
I therefore ask that Trump shutdowns the non-essential parts of the federal government until this health emergency is over.
I therefor ask that Trump remove all the non-essential parts of the federal government.
...sine we're asking.
OMG Nancypants Boxwine Pelosi has dismissed the House after less than two minutes in session and will NOT allow a vote on Coronavirus Relief today. Unbelievable. Yet par for the course.
narciso: "their donations are 2 and 4/1 democrat"
It's a solid point.
Someone will eventually get around to random sampling of the population with immunoassays for anti-bodies specific to COVID-19. If those studies show 100s of times as many infected than is shown by "Total Confirmed Cases", the battles to get these papers published will be epic.
I expect this and agree that there will be an attempt to cover this up.
Testing convalescent serum has been the standard in virus diagnostics long before the PCR came along. I hope it is being done but with the politics around this epidemic, who knows ?
that's why it's tragic, that urban leadership is at best negligent at worst criminally negligent,
re burr, a host of another blog, pointed out the times was raising the same concerns at the time of the sell off by burr and Feinstein and Loeffler,
What angers me is that dolts like Jen Rubin and Wilson and the parade of bozos that make up the WH press corps continue to draw paychecks even as they continue to misinform the public, while other Americans live in fear of missing mortgage payments and paying bills.
If "nonessential" services are to be discontinued, why don't we start with 99 percent of the press? I value my hairdresser and auto mechanic far more.
"Biden is done."
He was done when he defeated Bernie.
How people are spending their time.
MayBee said...
Also, my governor Whitmer is awful.
She issued her lockdown order without clarifying essential services and businesses. For example-- what if you were supposed to close on your home sale this Friday? What if you were supposed to pick up a car on Thursday? Can hardware stores stay open so people can buy things for needed home repairs?
WA State Gov. Jay Inslee (previously known as Governor Snake) issued the initial "shut down" order a week ago - schools, restaurants, gyms, beauty salons, etc. The guidelines were a bit sketchy, but many businesses (my corner dry cleaners, for instance) were able to stay open. On Monday, he finally issued the "shelter in place" order. It was 13 pages long, but essentially described which activities were "essential". The PA Governor did the same last week (with a check-the-box chart that was easy to understand)
Sounds like your governor could learn from her male colleagues.
Blogger MayBee said...
Also, my governor Whitmer is awful.
She issued her lockdown order without clarifying essential services and businesses. For example-- what if you were supposed to close on your home sale this Friday? What if you were supposed to pick up a car on Thursday? Can hardware stores stay open so people can buy things for needed home repairs?
I saw that many businesses are asking the great governor for clarification if they can stay open.
If you have to ask it doesn't seem to me you really want to stay open. Personally, I wouldn't shut down without a specific written order specific to my place of business.
Michael K: "Testing convalescent serum has been the standard in virus diagnostics long before the PCR came along. I hope it is being done but with the politics around this epidemic, who knows ?"
Will a "coverup" (it almost seems silly and too conspiratorial to even write that about this at this stage) even be possible when so many private companies and tests and labs were involved?
Now, if the CDC were still sitting all alone with little oversight, then I wouldn't put it past Big Time Hillary Fanboy Fauci and his pals to pull some shenanigans. But a coverup of something of that magnitude? I just can't see it.
I have been saying for days and days now...
We will never know if we overreacted. We will only know if we underreacted.
Gentle reminder:
@Drago predicted months ago that the Dem nominee would be pulled off the sidelines, and that it would be Michele.
If this comes true, I pledge to serve as your butler for 1 full month.
I don't think Cuomo will be the nominee
He is going to have his hands full for a couple of months and beyond. It would be a very bad look for him to abandon his post.
now giving money to liz warren, is tantamount to burning it.
I've seen this pattern, since Lawton chiles delayed the disaster declaration, re Andrew, and then demagogued against bush, rince repeat with blanco and nagin, a dozen years later,
"Robert Cook said...
"Biden seems irrelevant now and will be even more so by the convention."
Irrelevant? He's fucking invisible? Where is he? He is in complete radio/video silence. Is he infected and being treated? Is he trying to figure out what he can say or do that will appear pertinent? Is he dead?"
Scarce, but not complete radio silence. Here he is Monday. He clearly is addled. Severely. The lights are on but nobody's home.
The lights are on but nobody's home.
To those who readily say, first, "OK, Boomer," and then, "Goodbye, Boomer," may I suggest a visit to a cemetery wherein can be found this forecast,
Reader, beware as you pass by
As you are now
so once was I
As I am now
so you will be
Prepare therefore to follow me
"Nice try trying to squeak out of intimating that the 3% in ICU didn’t matter because they were over 60. We all know what you meant. Your mask slipped."
The hypocrisy burns. A couple of weeks ago in these pages you were gleeful at the prospect that widespread death from the virus could be used as a cudgel to take down Trump. Then you realized that maybe that wasn't such a good look. The commenters that accord you a shred of morality must be amnesiacs. You're a total piece of shit.
"If those studies show 100s of times as many infected than is shown by "Total Confirmed Cases", the battles to get these papers published will be epic"
Not sure about battles, but Sunetra Gupta of Oxford is leading the charge, estimating a high proportion of the UK population has already been infected. Theoretical epidemiologist! Woman in STEM! POC!
We'll see what happens, as the amateur epidemiologist-in-chief at the WH often says.
'there but for the grace of god, go we' that's a lesson that the likes of James Wolcott forward didn't realize in 2004, with hurricane, the same goes for epidemics,
[India] couldn't be locked down for more than a week without people starting to starve.
On the other hand their density, healthcare, and sanity culture mean it's the world's #1 risk for mass deaths.
There aren't good answers.
Dems must still go through the charade of the presidential primary. Once done, a couple of doctors will appear with Joe and Jill, announce . . . .something, something. . . . and for medical reasons he must decline the nomination.
If he did this before end of primaries, Sanders would surge. There isn't enough time to replace Biden on the ballot.
Not sure what the Dem rules are on this (there must be something in the event a nominee dies or is incapacitated). But I can guarantee there are already folks plotting how to pull this off.
Media are now boycotting Trump press conferences because it adds to his approval numbers.
NPR, funded by taxpayers, has now joined the list of news outlets boycotting these critical press conferences.
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...
Republican Seantor Richard Burr sued for dumping stocks ahead of coronavirus panic
3/25/20, 12:14 PM
Good! And if he goes down, maybe that will give impious for others to go after the Demos that did this too.
Funny clip, Curious George.
If Joe Biden is running this show next Fall, oy vey, time to find that old deed to a cabin in Guatemala...
Also, for the record, if New York City does see a spike in cases, and fatalities, like a typical epidemic, then sure, shut her down at the local level. But that's not happening across the country. Far from it.
"@Drago predicted months ago that the Dem nominee would be pulled off the sidelines, and that it would be Michele."
She hasn't been saying or doing much of anything, has she? Neither has Obama. I welcome their silence, but it seems to me somebody jockeying to be Biden's replacement would be much more vocal and active right now.
Hill, who in her own way is as addled as Biden, still seems to believe she has a shot; hence, she's mouthing off about Trump's "racism" on Twitter.
Bay Area Guy: "Gentle reminder:
@Drago predicted months ago that the Dem nominee would be pulled off the sidelines, and that it would be Michele."
I think I might have first mentioned that in 2017 or 2018 at the latest.
the wonders of Schengen
exiled: "Hill, who in her own way is as addled as Biden, still seems to believe she has a shot; hence, she's mouthing off about Trump's "racism" on Twitter."
Hillary still controls much of the democrat apparatus as obama did not put all of his own people in power. They are Clinton people still. And Hillary clearly believes, and not unreasonably, that the dems are sheep and will do what they are told.
So, really, is she wrong about that?
4)Trump issued the China and Europe travel bans when all of the elites said he shouldn't.
5) Trump said to Fauci, at the press conference where Trump was pushing chloroquinine and Fauci was dithering, "You and I disagree on this, but what do we have to lose?"
6) Trump does some strange things (like joking about how bad the test procedure was for him personally) and says stuff that gets presented in edited sound bites and MSM commentary as stupid, out-of-touch, idiotic, mean and/or bizarre; when people actually watch him in a press conference they see that his style is odd but he makes his basic points and communicates what he means. (That is not all that different from Pelosi, BTW). And Trump makes clear that he is trying to do everything that he and the team working on the problem can possibly do, and won't take "the rules don't permit that" as an answer.
it's [India] the world's #1 risk for mass deaths.
Some countries have a high proportion of the population taking preventive medication for Malaria. I don't where India sits in that group, but Africa seems protected so far and the Malaria medication is one proposed explanation.
The position that few are infected and could be infected before February in areas outside of China always rested on a ridiculous assumption- that the Chinese identified the source of COVID-19 contemporaneously with complete identification of the infectious agent, all within a week or two. It always far more likely that the Chinese identified the virus after at least 100,000 or more had been infected (and I personally think it was millions, not thousands), and that this identification of the infectious agent happened months after the first person caught the disease. This means it was always far more likely that Chinese overseas travelers brought the disease to North America and Europe in the Fall of 2019 at the latest.
This is a big blind spot for a lot of people- that epidemiologists are timely catching every new virus soon after it appears. The world has never worked this way, and it never will. The only a way a virus is ever going to be caught quickly this way is if the true mortality rate is 25% or more, and that the deaths are particularly unique in nature like, say, Ebola.
unknown: "when people actually watch him in a press conference they see that his style is odd but he makes his basic points and communicates what he means."
Which is precisely why the media is more and more refusing to show his press conferences.
I predict by late summer there will be a complete MSM blackout on Trump events/statements/press conferences/press releases etc along with even greater suppression of Trump communications and Trump supporters on social media.
Of course, that doesn't exactly make me Nostradamus now, does it?
Yancey Ward: "This means it was always far more likely that Chinese overseas travelers brought the disease to North America and Europe in the Fall of 2019 at the latest."
Exactly.
There is no way the ChiComs figured it out quickly and there is absolutely no way they would let the world know right away.
Zero chance.
the problem with that theory, is those symptoms didn't seem to present themselves anywhere else, I know they weren't looking for it,
"If this comes true, I pledge to serve as your butler for 1 full month."
Drago, send him over to my house when he is done with yours.
4. George W. Bush was reelected in 2004, a year and eight months into the ill-fated Iraq War. Many voters may have been applying a clean up you own mess principle.
"Wheezy's" is a really unfortunate name for a restaurant today.
Trump DID NOT have enough data to justify the shutdown.
This is why Trump is more popular with me, and I think a lot of people. Action under great uncertainty takes balls (figuratively, some chicks have balls) and shows true leadership. Despite a lack of data, Trump recognized a potential threat and acted when most nerds were sitting around either playing with shitty data and scaring people or sitting on their asses saying we needed to wait for more data before acting.
And Trump's first action was an exercise of sovereignty, not authoritarianism: he shut our border with China. I wish he acted quicker to shut down all international travel, because the exercise in sovereignty might have reduced the need for the local exercise of authority that many states are undergoing: all Trump shut were the borders, but governors and mayors and assorted little tyrants were the ones who forced businesses and schools to close, closed gun shops, and have threatened force to keep people at home. Some of these measures may be helpful and necessary. Had we had acted even more aggressively to protect our sovereignty we wouldn't have to fuck with our liberty and empower the authoritarians. But Trump was directionally correct, as he ALWAYS seems to be in his instinct and his action. Moral compass. Leader compass. He's a fucking weirdo, but his head is on straight and his heart is true and he's ballsy and brave.
People are in danger now and the reaction is “what about how they treated Obama.”
@Ken B., do you really believe what you wrote? I don’t think that is the primary, or even a significant, consideration of conservatives. Many of us do differ with those who seek major lockdowns that impact the poorest worker — trivially easy to express “sympathy” when your own wallet takes no hit.
But now that you mention it, the press did treat Obama as though he farted Chanel No. 5, no matter how callous he was and no matter how badly his policies worked out.
“The hypocrisy burns. A couple of weeks ago in these pages you were gleeful at the prospect that widespread death from the virus could be used as a cudgel to take down Trump. Then you realized that maybe that wasn't such a good look. The commenters that accord you a shred of morality must be amnesiacs. You're a total piece of shit.”
And you are a lying sack of shit. I have never said a word about this national emergency taking down Trump. Why do you resort to lying? You are the immoral one who must lie.
Second to this, I agree with those folks saying Trump's popularity is owed to the way he mediates between the experts and assorted other nerds and journalists the people: he has managed to put this team front and center, privilege them in a way that is comforting to many in that he's got talented experts and listens to them, while still in the same conversation, speaking on multiple levels simultaneously, letting people know he's in charge and his priorities are straight and he knows these nerds and experts are only useful, not leaders. It's amazing communication, speaking at the same time to many different kinds of people and giving hope and confidence to most of them even though that requires a different message. He's saying many things at once while being utterly straightforward.
As I predicted- the US new cases was only a little higher yesterday because testing might plateauing. We conducted fewer tests yesterday than on Monday, and especially flat between Saturday and Sunday, though a jump between Sunday and Monday.
The panic might be subsiding a bit, or we are reaching a bottleneck in testing- i.e. more people with symptoms want to get tested in the Northeast, but don't want to spend hours in line to do so.
There's now new speculation that SARS-CoV-2 is actually a novel chimera. This means that essentially it's a recombination of 2 different but closely related betacoronaviruses that have been found both in bats and pangolins. This recombination most likely would have occured in an individual from one of those two reservoir species who was hosting both of those viruses simultaneously (possibly along with many others). Recombination with viruses occurs when at least two viral genomes co-infect the same host cell and exchange genetic segments. The resultant virus then jumped to a human host.
There's so many bizaare outcomes that can occur in natural viral reservoirs like bats when you have all sorts of viruses and the animal itself is largely asymptomatic.
If he's not playing multidimensional chess, he's doing the Gretzky thing with multiple pucks.
Those of you who voted for Hillary, do you seriously think she would have done a competent job with this crisis?
From where I sit, the fact that she lost makes me wonder whether I should give up my atheism.
Big Mike
About the commenters on this blog? Absolutely. The mindset for many is absolutely driven by the belief the press is just making stuff up to get Trump by ruining the economy and why wasn’t there a lockdown over h1n1.
And I agree with you about the press.
Yancey, I'd feel more confident about that if we had better information not just on positive and negative tests, but on pending tests. I can't believe we've slowed down the testing, just based on what I'm hearing locally. It's just taking several days for the tests to be processed at the labs, that may be the bottleneck. My parents, for example, are five days into bad flu-like symptoms and were tested Friday, and still awaiting results.
never let a crisis
"Chicken on the run" seems timely.
Browndog:
If you have to ask it doesn't seem to me you really want to stay open. Personally, I wouldn't shut down without a specific written order specific to my place of business.
Hmm...I was thinking the opposite. My husband and I are independent contractors. I think the business owner we work with would love to keep doing business, but we would each get in individual trouble if one of us (or the owner) does the wrong thing. Asking seems prudent.
when have they behaved otherwise
Blogger Big Mike said...
Those of you who voted for Hillary, do you seriously think she would have done a competent job with this crisis?
Every country on her play list would be getting huge aid packages to combat Corona.
Every country receiving aid would be writing 7 figure checks to the Clinton Foundation.
Guaranteed.
daskol: "It's amazing communication, speaking at the same time to many different kinds of people and giving hope and confidence to most of them even though that requires a different message. He's saying many things at once while being utterly straightforward."
Agreed. Even people who can't quite articulate it that way will feel it. He's rising to the occasion.
2. Trump is on TV a lot, performing his presidential role, in real time, without media commentary, and it's working as intended, to make people feel that competent people are working hard.
As pointed out, 50.5% of those polled disagree. From a reality standpoint, dumb Donald is interfering in the proper conduct for alleviating the COVID-19 threat in an attempt to save his presidency and the upcoming election. American lives are not the concern of our malignant narcissist king.
A new modeling study on likely US and UK outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic, [was] published yesterday by a team of epidemiologists at the Imperial College of London.
The model analyzes the two approaches to managing the virus. One is mitigation, or "flattening the curve," which sees the novel coronavirus continue to spread, but at a slow rate so as not to overwhelm hospital systems. The other approach is suppression, which tries to reverse the pandemic through extreme social distancing measures and home quarantines of cases and their families, achieving an R0—or reproduction number—of less than 1.
In order to suppress the pandemic to an R0 of below 1, a country would need to combine case isolation, social distancing of the entire population, and either household quarantine or school and university closure, the authors found. These measures "are assumed to be in place for a 5-month duration," they wrote.
We do not need more Presidential lies and nonsensical misdirection - especially now with millions of lives at risk.
daskol said...
I'd feel more confident about that if we had better information not just on positive and negative tests, but on pending tests.
(Sorry if I'm starting to sound like a broken record). Please bookmark this Google Doc that is being maintained by the Coronavirus Tracking Project. Click on the "States current" tab and you will notice a field called "Pending". You'll not that in New York State, there are currently 3805 tests pending, but in California they are waiting on the results for over 12,100 tests.
Jennifer Rubin headline at Washington Post -
"Joe Biden reminds us: Help is on the way
He should be on TV every day."
Uh . . . . yeah.
"My parents, for example, are five days into bad flu-like symptoms and were tested Friday, and still awaiting results."
Where at? If this is typical, then the tests don't provide much use, do they? Might be why the advice is to just isolate without requesting a test, and calling for help if one has trouble breathing. Talk to your parents every day, make sure they aren't getting worse.
After Burr, can we do this congress critter?
California Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein sold $1.5 million to $6 million worth of shares in late and mid-February, Senate records show.
Hmm...I was thinking the opposite. My husband and I are independent contractors. I think the business owner we work with would love to keep doing business, but we would each get in individual trouble if one of us (or the owner) does the wrong thing. Asking seems prudent.
As I mentioned the other day, after reading the text of her order you can make a case that nearly every business can find an exemption, and you don't have to get too creative with interpretations.
I think her vagueness and sweeping exemptions were written that way on purpose. I give her credit for doing that.
"As pointed out, 50.5% of those polled disagree. From a reality standpoint, dumb Donald is interfering in the proper conduct for alleviating the COVID-19 threat in an attempt to save his presidency and the upcoming election. American lives are not the concern of our malignant narcissist king."
This is a good example of how irrational hatred can cloud your thinking when you are trying to analyze a problem. "From a reality standpoint . . ."
Really, Gadfly? That's hilarious!
New York Post: We have to get our Country back to Work"
I would, however, permit an exception for all NYT employees to stay home. Also, stay away from keyboards. Lotta hidden germs, there. Wear gloves. Wear masks, don't touch pencils or pens. And, Sulzberger should pay you too - even if you can't work. It's only fair.
"it was always far more likely that Chinese overseas travelers brought the disease to North America and Europe"
As soon as we can test for antibodies on a larger scale, we should sample American college students who were in close touch with Chinese students. If the Wuhan virus penetrated campuses when they reopened after New Year, that will help provide some answers.
how about here
Lewis Wetzel: "This is a good example of how irrational hatred can cloud your thinking when you are trying to analyze a problem. "From a reality standpoint . . ."
Really, Gadfly? That's hilarious!"
Its even worse than that.
By going to statistical measures for assessment and analysis gadfly opens himself up to charges of lacking "moral seriousness" from Ken B and failure to support the "sanctity of human life" by Inga.
On the other hand, this new aid package will give workers unemployment benefits above their current wages, so a lot of people will rather be laid off.
Not to mention that little thing about employers not being able to order people to come to work.
We do not need more Presidential lies and nonsensical misdirection - especially now with millions of lives at risk.
Which is why we are all voting for Trump in November you idiot.
Did you happen to notice Nancy's antics while the country is burning down ?
Of course not. What a fool !
Once you get past Trump's self congratulatory statements, he has assembled a group of very competent, well spoken professionals.
I think her vagueness and sweeping exemptions were written that way on purpose. I give her credit for doing that.
Ha! Well my industry is reading it the opposite way. But if this goes on longer and she fails to clarify, I'm sure people will get more creative.
Oh as for giving her credit- other governors have named real estate as an essential activity. She didn't. So if she left it out on purpose but. wants it to proceed, it's to save herself from looking like she said something was ok.
Some countries have a high proportion of the population taking preventive medication for Malaria. I don't where India sits in that group, but Africa seems protected so far and the Malaria medication is one proposed explanation.
I would think the Philippines would also be in that category but there is panic in Manila.
Francisco D said...
A lot of people here in Arizona were very sick in February with COVID-19 symptoms. My wife was one of them. Several of her running club friends reported similar problems. All felt it was really serious.
My wife and her daughter had the same thing happen in Feb. We are in the metro Phoenix area.
Curiouser and curiouser.
there are gaps both in wordometer and the argis databases,
My parents are in Westchester (White Plains), while my sister and I live in Brooklyn. And while not muckety-mucks, my dad is a recently retired physician in a social circle that is full of physicians, and they were able to get tested as soon as their physician friend advised them to do so based on their symptom severity and persistence (tested after 3 days of illness, and still sick 4 days later). With no sense of smell and the other symptoms, it's pretty clear what they likely have. But they don't count yet.
Nonapod, that's why I can't believe that number of pending tests in NY: not only are they waiting for test results, so are several of their friends who are ill. All those tested in the last 3 days at the practice of their physician/friend are still awaiting results.
We've almost gone up there a few times to deliver some supplies and just check in, but are sticking to FaceTime and their helpful neighbors/friends have dropped off all that they need on the front porch. Since I'm pretty sure my wife and I already had this thing, I'll go there if things deteriorate, but fortunately they seem to be just moderately to severely flu-ish.
We will never know if we overreacted.
Actually, it will be pretty easy to determine if this is the case.
BTW, tests administered in NY (Westchester), but sent to North Carolina lab for processing. All tests from this practice and this lab submitted since Friday are still pending, several dozen. This doc has set up a temporary testing center, and there are many such in NY State.
you were saying
It's a bat; it's a pangolin. It's two taste treats in one!
In case you hesitate to go where narciso leads you, here's the current score:
Coronavirus Cases: 458,664. Deaths: 20,799. CFR: let's say 4.5% so far.
That's bad and it can get worse, for example if young Americans appear more susceptible to disease or if overwhelmed hospitals must start serious triage or if all hell breaks loose in India.
But it may also get much better. The percentage is of identified cases, not actual infected population, so as of right now, it must be well below 4.5%. If infections outpace identified cases by a factor of 5, for total cases of about 2 million, which does not seem unreasonable, then CFR is down to 1%. Considering how slow testing ramped up, the right factor may well be 10 or more, in which case the current real CFR is down into serious flu territory.
The current way of measuring "deaths" also does not take into account likely deaths due to flu and pre-existing conditions that otherwise would have occurred. I have seen no reasonable estimate of the proportion, but at least in some countries it would not be negligible. In Italy, for example, several recent flu seasons had severe mortality, and the initial wave of Wuhan deaths included a high number of people over 80 with 3 pre-existing conditions.
Earnest Prole said... "American presidents typically see their approval numbers break a minimum of 60-40 in times of national crisis, so to not break even represents a remarkable achievement."
Remember when Obama's approval numbers PLUMMETED from 65% to 45% during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak? Good times.
All those tested in the last 3 days at the practice of their physician/friend are still awaiting results.
Well, it does say that there's 3800 tests in NY that are "Pending" and I have heard that the test takes 2 days for results. But obviously I can't say for sure what the accuracy of the tracking project's data really is. It's just all that's available right now.
“Trump DID NOT have enough data to justify the shutdown.”
“This is why Trump is more popular with me, and I think a lot of people. Action under great uncertainty takes balls (figuratively, some chicks have balls) and shows true leadership. Despite a lack of data, Trump recognized a potential threat and acted when most nerds were sitting around either playing with shitty data and scaring people or sitting on their asses saying we needed to wait for more data before acting.”
Trump acts and reacts decisively, on incomplete information. He has good instincts. Bureaucrats are incapable of that (as are “peace generals, who have to be replaced by “war” generals in order to start winning wars). I still chuckle about reading about our national pandemic plan, written by bureaucrats, that would just now be chugging into operation. It was based on the assumptions that the country of origin for a pandemic would promptly report it to the WHO (the Chinese appear to have been maybe two months late there) and then the WHO reporting it to member countries (They dawdled a bit too). They also assumed that a vaccine would be available (it still isn’t) and that vaccine production could start almost Immediately (forgetting the year or so of human trials that the FDA is demanding - which is what happens when one bureaucratic organization ignores another one - the ignored one thwarts the first one to prove its value). Looked good on paper, but forgot important aspects, such as replacing the masks and gloves used during the last epidemic. If a Democrat were President, the bureaucrats would be making the decisions, and nothing would have been done yet, as their experts studied the problem. Remember, Democrats are the party allied most closely with the bureaucrats, and bureaucrats don’t get ahead by taking big chances. Instead, they are more likely to follow the rules, and demand more money, power, and regulations, when that approach fails. They can be fired for acting decisively, violating the rules, and cutting the red tape. They are pretty much unfireable if they don’t.
Yes, it is technically easy to find out whether the reaction was overdone or underdone, but since the results have professional and political ramifications, answering this question will be resisted mightily, though not equally depending on what the expected result is.
A lot of people have stake actual professional reputations on the mortality rate of this disease being at least above 0.75% (some have staked it at even higher mortality rates). Any data showing the true mortality rate is under 0.5% is going to be resisted in a battle to the professional death. Additionally, any data showing the economic losses cause other increased morbidity is also going to be resisted with great force.
I believe that Sarah Hoyt has written frequently since around the beginning of the year about how she's been sick since January.
new York is four times paris's population, twice that of London, that's a sizable cohort to handle,
chris murphy, what's in the water in conneticut, is among those who still want to nationalize the supply chain,
and Cuomo's still complaining about the bill being passed,
priorities, re the former first consort, remember the contract for the exchanges, went to her college roommate, whose security allowed the Russians to actually hack them?
Sebastian: "The current way of measuring "deaths" also does not take into account likely deaths due to flu and pre-existing conditions that otherwise would have occurred. I have seen no reasonable estimate of the proportion, but at least in some countries it would not be negligible. In Italy, for example, several recent flu seasons had severe mortality, and the initial wave of Wuhan deaths included a high number of people over 80 with 3 pre-existing conditions."
I'm sorry but with that logical and sensible assessment utilizing what we know statistically, you too will have to be added to the Ken B/Inga "morally unserious"/"don't care about the sanctity of life" doghouse.
Not to worry of course, since its getting crowded in here and the company is actually quite solid.
It is a high risk proposition to deny the social contagion spread by the media, press, and social platforms. There is a conflation of special and peculiar interests, and knowledge domains, that seem to present a clear answer, but they do not, and may, in fact, misrepresent the issues under consideration. Not quite wicked. Not yet.
actually blank pages are charitable
@Ken B., I don’t think you’re right about the other commentators. But that’s what makes a debate.
The thing that bothers me about about the news media right now is that they are so desperate to damage Donald. Trump that they are prepared to resort to fake news, pushing narratives that they know are false or at least misleading, no matter what the collateral risks to the public. Here’s an example: the Arizona couple where one person died and the wife hospitalized after ingesting fish tank cleaner. Given the way the media spun it to make it seem like Trump made a mistake in pushing hydroxychloroquine, we now have the governor of Nevada banning the use of all anti-malarial drugs, including hydroxychloroquine, because that couple overdosed on something with a similar name. The citizens of Nevada will be okay if the extensive real world application of the hydroxychloroquine plus Z-pacs do not work the way the very small trials in France and Australia seem to indicate. But if he’s wrong, and the small trials in France and Australia scale up, then the governor’s falling for fake news will kill Nevadans, and kill them slowly and painfully. And the people of Nevada don’t deserve that.
oh amy klobuchar, also agrees, since she's under consideration as vp her views on the supply chain should be noted,
“Trump DID NOT have enough data to justify the shutdown.”
He had expert opinions a la the infamous "97%", armed with the precautionary principle, and other artifacts of the "secular" religion, and a social contagion that has been in progress for more than 12 trimesters. So, he chose a wicked solution. Now that we have more information, cooler heads can prevail. and we can make better choices, not one, not two, and certainly not the fifth choice when it can be reasonably avoided.
they don't give a farthing big mike, just as we found with Puerto rico, and the shutting down of that contractor out of whitefish, which set back the re fitting of the electrical grid by months, and the subsequent corruption scandal, the parish president that cried crocodile tears, and was in the till, that prevented the levees from being reinforced,
Ken B said...
Drago
You misread laughter. I like it when you dig the hole deeper.
As for Inga I dislike her politics but she is acting like a morally serious person. Unlike some.
Hey Meade.
Deal with this or I will make it an issue.
You cannot have discussions with people like Ken and Inga.
People need to keep in mind that hydroxychloroquine is not just an anti-malarial drug. It is also used to treat autoimmune diseases like lupus. COVID-19 is very different from malaria, but perhaps not so different from other diseases that hydroxychloroquine treats.
"NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...
Francisco D said...
A lot of people here in Arizona were very sick in February with COVID-19 symptoms. My wife was one of them. Several of her running club friends reported similar problems. All felt it was really serious.
My wife and her daughter had the same thing happen in Feb. We are in the metro Phoenix area.
Curiouser and curiouser."
On February 6th I had a pair of guests who had just returned returned from a third world country in the Western Pacific. They had respiratory influenza symptoms, mostly coughing and sneezing.
Three days later I cam down with the same symptoms, but worse, with a painful cough, sneezing and chest congestion. I had a fever of 99.8 degrees.
I am guy just past 60 who smoked for decades before quitting.
Three days later I was back to normal. It was just the frikkin' ordinary flu.
"People reacted badly to this quote but he is right. Note the IF. If covid is all bullshit then Trump and all those lockdown governors should resign."
KenB speak with forked tongue.
MayBee:
"Cuomo just said we will find that Covid was here much earlier than has been reported. Yancy Ward and Achilles, among others, have been saying that for days.
Cuomo also just said the largest cohort of Covid havers, we will find, are people who never knew they had it- no symptoms or not enough to get tested."
I have been saying this since the start.
The death rate is lower than reported. It has probably spread to a number of people in similar ballparks to the flu.
We are just dealing with backlogging now. The virus is widespread. This is clear and obvious from how spread out the outbreak is.
This started months ago.
“ There's now new speculation that SARS-CoV-2 is actually a novel chimera. This means that essentially it's a recombination of 2 different but closely related betacoronaviruses that have been found both in bats and pangolins.”
One big thing that changed with this novel SARS-like coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is the spike that is used to gain entry into cells. One big difference is that it binds much more tightly with human ACE-2 receptors. The problem with mere recombination into a chimera is, I think, that the three known reserve species (bats, civets, and pangolins) do not have comparable ACE-2 receptors, so there is no evolutionary advantage to the chimera over its predecessors in those species. Compounding this problem, jumping the species boundary for naturally occurring mutations typically occurs in fits and starts, with several failures before a success that survives and flourishes, as the virus is fine tuned by evolutionary mutations. This doesn’t appear to have happened. Instead, the virus seems to have jumped fully developed from some host into humans, and this new feature was immediately effective. I think that unlikely.
I much prefer the theory that the ChiCom researchers at their BSL-4 virology lab were forcefully evolving a SARS-like coronavirus to more effectively bind in humans with ACE-2 receptors, using an intermediate host, like ferrets, that have similar ACE-2 receptors. One thing that is very suggestive is that the break in the common tree between SARS-1 and SARS-2 appears to have been maybe 260 years ago from the point of view of SARS-2 mutations, but only several decades from the point of view of SARS-1 mutations. Moreover, SARS-1 has many more genetic siblings and cousins on its tree branch, while SARS-2 has many fewer, maybe a half dozen for that supposed 260 years of evolution since their genetic tree split, while SARS-1 has dozens.
Singapore successfully used a Duke antibody test to track the COVID-19 vector path as early as February 18th. How much more time do we need to get this widely accessible?
Bruce Hayden: "There's now new speculation that SARS-CoV-2 is actually a novel chimera. This means that essentially it's a recombination of 2 different but closely related betacoronaviruses that have been found both in bats and pangolins.”
I'm trying to figure out if this comment by Bruce places him more in the Ken B-"morally unserious" category or the Inga-"doesn't care about the sanctity of human life" category.
This started months ago.
Increasing evidence for this. Note that when Trump stopped air travel to China, he was criticized for overreacting with insufficient data. The same criticism when he stopped air travel to Europe. Imagine how much cheaper and more effective our national response would have been if we had immediately closed our borders. We would almost certainly have avoided a lot of the economic damage and panic, and could probably have nipped this in the bud with a few weeks of social distancing and aggressive testing/tracking. Imagine how much more fucked we would be if this thing were killing people at some of the rates bandied about for not taking these actions. We're not past this crisis yet, but there's much we can learn about how to handle this in the future. It's reassuring that we have a leader, alone apparently in the western world, whose instincts were directionally correct and who took bold action despite global scorn and criticism. We can and should tally the costs of the disease and our reaction to the disease, but we also need a new framework for responding to this type of threat. Borders need to be sealable, and we need to be willing to seal them quickly. This bold act of sovereignty can prevent domestic authoritarianism compromising liberty and our economy. Globalization as practiced until 2020, already under assault the Trump administration, is already a casualty of COVID-19.
Yancey Ward at 1:00 PM
it was always far more likely that Chinese overseas travelers brought the disease to North America and Europe in the Fall of 2019 at the latest.
Yancey, your comments along this line are very interesting.
Everyone in our household -- even the usually most healthy member -- caught a bad, dry cough several months ago.
Ken B said...
Big Mike
About the commenters on this blog? Absolutely. The mindset for many is absolutely driven by the belief the press is just making stuff up to get Trump by ruining the economy and why wasn’t there a lockdown over h1n1.
You are typically completely dishonest about what other people are saying.
Most of us are saying that the Chinese lied about this virus early on and it is widespread at this point.
The media is trying to cover for them.
In addition to trying to cover for the Chinese they are lying about how many people have already been infected worldwide.
You can see this in that 10% of people tested with flu like symptoms are coming up positive for Wuhan Virus no matter how many people are tested. If Wuhan Virus was exploding currently we would have increasing numbers of positives despite the expected decrease due to adverse selection.
We need to put resources to random sampling as soon as possible.
We will never know that actual death rate for corona virus.
A yet to be chosen computer model will be the final word in the after action report.
how often do viruses combine in that way, unaided by technical means,
Meade said...
"In a few weeks, or a few months, the current situation will be behind us. Try to make sure that what’s remembered about you is something positive."
—Glenn Harlan Reynolds
Are people going to resent being wrong?
Are people going to apologize for all of the snarky bullshit?
Are people going to apologize for lashing out at the people who thought for themselves?
It is my experience that this never happens.
Blogger Achilles said...
We need to put resources to random sampling as soon as possible.
Yes plus medical staff and first responders. The antibody test is critical.
If covid is all bullshit then Trump and all those lockdown governors should resign."
Covid is not bullshit, but its evolution was uncharted, and its destination appears to have been overestimated. However, there are people... persons at risk, at elevated risk, and who are no longer viable. But the outcome is not elective, and it can be mitigated through prudent choices.
The group never apologizes for groupthink.
Achilles,
"Are people going to resent being wrong?
"Are people going to apologize for all of the snarky bullshit?
"Are people going to apologize for lashing out at the people who thought for themselves?"
Nah. We were all right, all along. It's those other assholes who need to apologize.
I much prefer the theory that the ChiCom researchers at their BSL-4 virology lab were forcefully evolving a SARS-like coronavirus to more effectively bind in humans with ACE-2 receptors, using an intermediate host, like ferrets, that have similar ACE-2 receptors.
As I have said before, I'm highly skeptical of that theory, mostly because it doesn't make much sense for the Chinese government to purposely create such an extremely dangerous virus that couldn't be specifically targeted at an enemy and only that enemy. While there may be an argument to be made that it was some sort of weird research project at that Wuhan lab that got out because someone idiot lab tech didn't follow the safety protocals or whatever, I even find that argument to be a little hard to swallow. So the Chi-coms were choosing to mess around with the provenly dangerous SARS style coronaviruses in hopes of... what exactly? Making some super pox that would only target people of non-chinese decent? That seems to be something that currently far outside the capabilities of modern genetics. Other than that, it'd seem like the purview of a fictional mad scientist/omnicidal maniac to actually want to create a super virus.
To be clear, I'm not trying to defend the Communist Chinese government here. I think they clearly bare the brunt of the blame for this thing spreading as far and wide as it has. I just don't fully buy the engineered virus part.
The hole apologize meme is another facet of cancel culture.
how often do viruses combine in that way, unaided by technical means,
Evolution: the known, unknown, and unknowable; but, yeah, its birth near a lever-4 biolab in Wuhan, does suggest a plausible anthropogenic conception.
So, the Washington Post has been blasting Trump for expressing hope that the country can get back to work soon.
Now the Post is sounding the alarm that the economy will tank because of the shutdowns.
this is journalism
2. Trump is on TV a lot, performing his presidential role, in real time, without media commentary, and it's working as intended, to make people feel that competent people are working hard.
As pointed out, 50.5% of those polled disagree. From a reality standpoint, dumb Donald is interfering in the proper conduct for alleviating the COVID-19 threat in an attempt to save his presidency and the upcoming election. American lives are not the concern of our malignant narcissist king.
A new modeling study on likely US and UK outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic, [was] published yesterday by a team of epidemiologists at the Imperial College of London.
The model analyzes the two approaches to managing the virus. One is mitigation, or "flattening the curve," which sees the novel coronavirus continue to spread, but at a slow rate so as not to overwhelm hospital systems. The other approach is suppression, which tries to reverse the pandemic through extreme social distancing measures and home quarantines of cases and their families, achieving an R0—or reproduction number—of less than 1.
In order to suppress the pandemic to an R0 of below 1, a country would need to combine case isolation, social distancing of the entire population, and either household quarantine or school and university closure, the authors found. These measures "are assumed to be in place for a 5-month duration," they wrote.
We do not need more Presidential lies and nonsensical misdirection - especially now with millions of lives at risk. Also, saving the economy from a depression must be faced realistically by simultaneously reducing unneeded programs now - beginning with the Military/Industrial complex spending and the chasing of the so-called climate catastrophe.
feels like norman the android, and kirk doesn't it?
Bruce Hayden @2:28 PM:
This is more or less what my sources have been saying. The provide me with this information and I use it to write coherent reports. But I don't know if what they're saying is correct. I'm just the wordsmith. As such, however, I pay attention to it all.
1) Trump and his team are competent.
2) The media is losing credibility by the day.
3) Americans understand the goal is to defeat the virus, and not destroy the economy.
Leaders push people ahead of the curve. So yesterday setting the Easter goal for returning to "Normal" was smart. It has to happen. What are we going to do? Introduce famine to fight a plague?
poor gadfly.
He's got his leftover and already outdated lefty talking points and he doesn't realize that rusted hulk of a long-past narrative is no longer salvageable.
But that's why he's our gadfly!
"American lives are not the concern of our malignant narcissist king."
Total bullshit...
“Trump DID NOT have enough data to justify the shutdown.”
“This is why Trump is more popular with me, and I think a lot of people. Action under great uncertainty takes balls (figuratively, some chicks have balls) and shows true leadership. Despite a lack of data, Trump recognized a potential threat and acted when most nerds were sitting around either playing with shitty data and scaring people or sitting on their asses saying we needed to wait for more data before acting.”
The key there is that he very likely made the right decisions, based on incomplete information. His decisions to shut dow entry into this country by people arriving from other countries, when he did, look prescient in retrospect. As I noted above, he appears to have very good instincts and intuition in this area - he appears to be extremely good at making good decisions quickly and decisively, based on incomplete data, under pressure. Republican Presidents seem better at this than Democrat ones (in my lifetime, only Truman, and maybe JFK, may have been competent there), and Trump seems better at it than most of his Republican predecessors.
Sometimes, making the sort of decisions like Trump did, is what you need to do to be successful. In business, a lot of the time, you don’t really have enough information, and often if you wait for better information, you are going to lose out to others who are better able to make good quick decisions.
Maybe here, in the high visibility decisions Trump made, what he may well have done is what we call war gaming. For example, what were the upsides and downsides of shutting down Chinese entry into the US when he did? The upside of doing it when he did was possibly saving lives. The downside was pissing off the ChiComs and their many enablers in this country (who aren’t going to vote for him anyway). The downside of not closing the border, maintaining the status quo, was that a number of Americans might die as a result. And of course, we know that most of the Dem leaders, from Palsi, Scheamer, and their clown car Presidential candidates, down, wouldn’t have shut down our border. They have all complained about Trump having done it, and Palsi tried to force our borders back open with her Porkulus II Coronavirus stimulus bill. Yesterday, despite all the evidence showing that Trump was right. For many of them, being Woke and virus signaling is more important than saving American lives.
I find it most amusing when gadfly simply cuts and pastes things that he/she/xe doesn't understand and expects that to somehow, someway, prove some bizarro point he/she/xe intends to make.
"I'm trying to figure out if this comment by Bruce places him more in the Ken B-"morally unserious" category or the Inga-"doesn't care about the sanctity of human life" category."
Sounds like a good T-shirt, to go along with the one that says "I'm bitterly clinging to the side of the deplorable bucket!"
As I have said before, I'm highly skeptical of that theory, mostly because it doesn't make much sense for the Chinese government to purposely create such an extremely dangerous virus that couldn't be specifically targeted at an enemy and only that enemy.
Sure it makes sense. The logic of totalitarian regimes bent on world domination, and all that.
So the Chi-coms were choosing to mess around with the provenly dangerous SARS style coronaviruses in hopes of... what exactly? Making some super pox that would only target people of non-chinese decent?
Yes, and yes. In hopes of adding another arrow to their quiver. They really do believe that war with the U.S. is inevitable. It may not inevitable, however, if the U.S. is weakened/decimated by a plague. It also gives them a weapon of mass destruction that is not aa globally destructive as thermonuclear war; i.e., a weapon that spares infrastructure but wipes out populations. You have to understand the mindset -- and the objectives -- of Chinese military leaders. I've been studying this very issue for the past decade, pursuant to my work in related fields, and I've been reading their military theoreticians in translation. Believe me: they think war with the U.S.is coming and they are gearing up for it.
it's like otto in 'a fish called wanda' the latest studies suggest that herd immunity has already been arrived at, the telegraph suggests the largest contagion arose out of a ski resort in Austria, which spread to the rest of Europe,
Hayden: "Sometimes, making the sort of decisions like Trump did, is what you need to do to be successful. In business, a lot of the time, you don’t really have enough information, and often if you wait for better information, you are going to lose out to others who are better able to make good quick decisions."
Correct.
In the real world there is NEVER enough information, just "information", and a leader makes a call based on whatever it is that leaders make judgments upon.
I'm sure many here have heard of Polanyi's Paradox: Human knowledge of how the world functions and capability are, to a large extent, beyond our explicit understanding.
Shorter: We all know more than we can explain or explicitly lay out
“I'm trying to figure out if this comment by Bruce places him more in the Ken B-"morally unserious" category or the Inga-"doesn't care about the sanctity of human life" category.”
Not sure of your point. Trying to figure out the origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus has little connection to the sanctity of human life. I think that it is an important question that needs, ultimately, to be answered. Was it a product of the BSL-4 Wuhan virology lab? If so, then the Chinese need to be shamed for having created it, and then allowing it to escape into the general population. This hopefully will make them think twice in the future, before heading in this direction. And that would presumably save lives. Maybe even American lives.
illustrating the point
Big Mike
“ The thing that bothers me about about the news media right now is ...”
I don’t disagree with a word you said in that comment.
I would go further. Chloroquine is going to define the debate. The press and some of the Democrats have made it into Little Round Top. If it pans out Trump will be a hero and the media will be destroyed. If it doesn’t Trump will probably lose the election. And you will hear bad stories about chloroquine right up to time we get reliable test results and know for sure. That will be in a few weeks I think.
Even Trump haters should hope he is right, but I really believe many don’t.
The thing about Trump's shutdown and rescinding it-
It's not up to Trump. These governors are in control. I think most if not all are democrats.
Who's going to be the first to lift their shutdown, and under what criteria?
Incubation period 14 days. 7 days for Illness. Everyone dying right now and in critical condition got sick well before "social distancing" started.
Additionally if the disease was this widespread then first-responders and hospital staff are most likely widely infected as well. We are already seeing the leadership and celebrity class has broad exposure. COVID-19 positive test rates follow the number of tests administered at near 1.0 correlation whenever I am able to access the actual results.
We are fighting this disease in the wrong manner.
We are being driven by panic and bad information.
We have very specific information about who is most affected by this disease. We should be acting as if we have all likely been exposed. We need to start looking at the weather forecast specifically and recognizing where outbreaks are likely to occur.
Brit Hume
Verified account @brithume
From the article by @HolmanJenkins: “Nobody has yet satisfactorily explained how lock-downs can end if most of the population is uninfected, there’s no vaccine, and the virus is not extinct.”
Instapundit has $2T. In either case, it’s not spent yet. It’s an authorization.
Sure it makes sense. The logic of totalitarian regimes bent on world domination, and all that.
Not really. Any regime, totalitarion or otherwise, doesn't want to greatly hurt themselves with a weapon intended for an enemy. What use is a weapon that damages you at least as much, if not more, than your enemy?
"most of the population is uninfected,"
There is no evidence to support this claim.
Bruce: "Not sure of your point."
Nothing to do with you I can assure you.
Carry on.
Browndog said...
The thing about Trump's shutdown and rescinding it-
It's not up to Trump. These governors are in control. I think most if not all are democrats.
Who's going to be the first to lift their shutdown, and under what criteria?
It was always meant to be this way.
But it was never meant for the governors to be local tin pots. They are shutting off power and water to people. Closing gun stores. Arresting people for hosting weddings.
We are a country of sheep now.
Something that I think helps Trump do the right thing is his confidence. Not being the first woman President or some other identity player that has to prove themselves capable of leadership, he is comfortable acting, or not acting. To me, he does what he thinks right regardless of criticism. He's not trying to prove anything other than that he can succeed and do what works. His enemies self-neutralize their criticism with the over-the-top volume and inevitability of it day after day.
888 hospitalized/ICU in the whole state? Sounds like a long holiday weekend in Chicago. As long as we have dueling stats from the people here. They are guesses. Let's see some predictions to back up this guessing game.
Known Unknown said...
"most of the population is uninfected,"
There is no evidence to support this claim.
Great Point!
Most of the population is infected unless there is evidence to prove otherwise.
Browndog said...
Brit Hume
Verified account @brithume
From the article by @HolmanJenkins: “Nobody has yet satisfactorily explained how lock-downs can end if most of the population is uninfected, there’s no vaccine, and the virus is not extinct.”
This gets to the heart of the problem.
Most of the population has likely been exposed.
People are starting to catch wind that they have been misled by our Media and by China specifically.
This panic was not planned from the start. But it was definitely driven with motive at every step.
Loved Hillary's Haiti work, with full support of DNC. How exhilarating to see that party join in and pull together for the Haitians! Real expertise.
Achilles said... [hush][hide comment]
Ken B said...
Drago
You misread laughter. I like it when you dig the hole deeper.
As for Inga I dislike her politics but she is acting like a morally serious person. Unlike some.
Hey Meade.
Deal with this or I will make it an issue.
You cannot have discussions with people like Ken and Inga.
Remain calm. You won the argument long ago. The opposition is inconsequential, and childish at times.
The thing about Trump's shutdown and rescinding it-
It's not up to Trump. These governors are in control.
Yep, here in California, it is Newsome, not Trump who has destroyed business and lives. His career is over after this.
FullMoon said...
Yep, here in California, it is Newsome, not Trump who has destroyed business and lives. His career is over after this.
3/25/20, 3:34 PM
Sorry but I will [maybe] believe it when I see it. He is a D in CA. That is a lifetime free pass to screw crap up. Best case is he is replaced with another D that has a 70/30 chance of being worse. When was the last time an R was in charge?
FullMoon said...
Yep, here in California, it is Newsome, not Trump who has destroyed business and lives. His career is over after this.
He would lose among the population of California.
They however allow Mexico to participate in California elections and Newsome's sanctuary state policy is very popular in Mexico.
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