March 25, 2020
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146 comments:
Interesting about China not counting the asymptomatic and admitting to that. They don't want to know, and are saying so by that action.
unrelated
"If you don't follow the guidelines, you're killing old people"
"If you don't get everyone back to work right away, you're killing young people."
there was also the absurd comedy of the biden campaign, being propped up by jake tapper and nicolle Wallace,
Good list. Let me add a few.
H1N1.
FLU FLU FLU.
Only X deaths and the population is Y.
Italy is cheating!
"Trump called the Coronavirus a hoax!"
another absurd exercise
Several of the commenters here are convinced that the virus has been here longer, such as starting last year, and is much more wide spread than the official story, and maybe is already providing some hard immunity.
Does anyone who ascribes to that theory want to take a stab at explaining our exponentially rising death rate? One which is fairly consistent with the official timeline.
I can certainly believe that, early on, deaths related to coronavirus would be missed/undercounted. I could see some missed as recently as a month ago. But certainly over the last two weeks there has been enough awareness, and enough test availability, that any deaths that could be attributed to coronavirus would be attributed to coronavirus. And over those two weeks, the deaths have been rising exponentially, from single digits up to 225 yesterday.
I hate using deaths, as they are such a lagging indicator, but they are the most accurate/objective numbers we have.
"I'm summing up what I've been hearing a lot"
Huh. JAC must be "hearing a lot" of that in the same circles where it made sense to tout Mayor Pete as presidential material.
Anyway, I haven't "heard" any of his points "a lot." And even following Wuhan virus reports pretty intensely (even in the NYT, would you believe), I can't recall coming across any of them, except for speculations about the irrationality of TP hoarding.
Speaking of getting tired, I am a little tired of hearing doomsday scenarios untethered from serious data analysis and cost-benefit calculations.
Also, I'm tired of hearing MSM "questions" for Trump, Dem nonsense about ways to exploit the crisis, and Slow Joe on any subject.
*herd* immunity
"China has almost no coronavirus cases anymore, so let's figure out what they're doing right and copy that!" Easy - lie.
Meade: "If you don't get everyone back to work right away, you're killing young people."
Where did you hear that?
Sebastian,
Search the comments for Birkel.
"Several of the commenters here are convinced that the virus has been here longer, such as starting last year, and is much more wide spread than the official story, and maybe is already providing some hard immunity." I would think that the most likely explanation is that people back then had flu or such.
"[blah blah blah] EXPONENTIALLY [blee blee blee]"
I knew it wouldn’t be long before someone mentioned how tired he was of math.
I'm tired of hearing about things people are tired of hearing about. Suck it up.
who is more absurd
The death rate is easily explained - if someone died of COVID-19 prior to Feb 15th or thereabouts, it very likely would have been attributed to flu/pneumonia/old age.
Car wrecks aren't the best example. I agree I wouldn't use it.
AIDS still kills a million people a year world wide.
Suicide is a good point too since driving bankruptcy will actually raise this rate.
But the Flu is still the best example.
I am tired of hearing that corona is hitting stocks and real estate industry too!
lol. I'm not "tired of math".
I'm tired of self-congratulatory midwits peppering their endlessly repetitive bleating with terms that they imagine to be impressive.
I would add in "[blee blee blee] ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE [blah blah blah]"
I'm among those who suspect that we've had the virus here a bit longer than when "patient zero" was identified. The problem is lack of a method of identification. Many thousands of people die every day in this country. Even after Covid-19 was identified as a disease different from flu, we had no way to test every death that might have been related. We still don't. That's why I'm not making any predictions, but I am watching the numbers closely as testing gets more widespread.
Ignorance --
It's not just here. Italy is going back and testing samples from late November and December. The doctors are saying there was a strange pneumonia going around then.
There's even some speculation that Italy originally transmitted the virus to China.
Who knows?
Ken B said...
I knew it wouldn’t be long before someone mentioned how tired he was of math.
More tiring is people who keep pretending this math is hard.
Also people who think referencing math is some sort of rhetorical attack rather than using it as a tool to support their arguments.
The thing I'm tired of hearing about coronavirus is hearing about coronavirus.
In other words: Advice about personal hygiene and avoiding crowds heard, understood, and acknowledged. Now shut up, already. (I hate it when people repeat themselves over and over again with a lot of repetition and redundancy.)
One thing I'm not tired of hearing about the coronavirus:
"[Americans] want to get back to work ASAP. We will be stronger than ever before!"
yep. #
esp. 5. trusting China for accurate info? please don't.
“ I hate it when people repeat themselves over and over again with a lot of repetition and redundancy.”
You can say that again.
@Bill, RoT
There's even some speculation that Italy originally transmitted the virus to China.
I would think that the recent genomic analysis would put paid to that idea.
Ken B: "I knew it wouldn’t be long before someone mentioned how tired he was of math."
Today you literally asserted someone asking a question about the stats of those hospitalized meant that person lacked "moral seriousness".
“ More tiring is people who keep pretending this math is hard”
No math is hard if you don’t even try to understand it.
YH: "I would think that the recent genomic analysis would put paid to that idea."
The lefties and ChiComs (but I repeat myself) will never stop trying to absolve the ChiCom's from responsibility while simultaneously attaching that blame to Trump.
I'll tell you what I'm tired of hearing --
Senator Pat Leahy
(on the floor now)
Apparently he's still around.
Mark: "Maybe folks would like to hear this -
Hospitals consider universal do-not-resuscitate orders for coronavirus patients
(even against their will)"
In 2015 Gov Cuomo refused to restock the required emergency supplies for pandemics, including ventilators, and instead used that money for green energy boondoggles.
In place of the necessary medical equipment, Cuomo substituted updated triage instructions which was essentially death panels.
Many on these boards do not appreciate these already well established facts and instead seek to transfer that responsibility onto Trump and the feds where it doesn't belong.
Does anyone who ascribes to that theory want to take a stab at explaining our exponentially rising death rate? One which is fairly consistent with the official timeline.
I know several people (in Tucson) who had severe COVID19-like symptoms in early to mid February. My best guess is that the prior virus was a weaker form of the current coronavirus. Other hypotheses are welcome.
All of those people are very athletic (e.g., runners) and may have superior immune systems.
We need to clarify the difference between "rate" and occurrences. The rate will go down drastically as the population is sampled to determine how many people actually contradicted the coronavirus. There is no way to currently determine if there is "exponential" growth in the death rate.
When people say they are tired of hearing it, that tells me they haven't made, or don't have good enough arguments to convince those people differently. It's kinda like when you put your fingers in your ears and say lalalalalalalalalalala.....
Some people think becuase they have some answer to it that it's a good answer, and that's the mistake made by JAC here. None of his counterpoints are convincing, just possible alternative views.
Not tired of hearing: “Hey, did you get your flu shot?”
now minister haotian, retired in 2003, that doesn't mean he's not after nearly 60 years in military service, hes not a figure in politburo policy,
Our only options are to kill the economy or kill old people.
and
If coronavirus is outlawed, only outlaws will have coronavirus
Suck it up.
Yah I'll have plenty of whinging in my house for the duration. If you don't continue being your entertaining selves rehajm will die.
""[Americans] want to get back to work ASAP. We will be stronger than ever before!"
Since the vast majority of Americans are not locking themselves in their homes, there clearly won't be any of us left, stronger or otherwise, unless by stronger you mean immune to Covid-19.
"Lips that touch pangolin will never touch mine"
He needs to find some new friends and acquaintances.
The folks I'm interacting with (virtually, of course) aren't talking about toilet paper or hoarding of stuff, they aren't guessing at what the data are and mean. Mostly they are inquiring as to how I'm doing, explaining how they're doing and adjusting, and expressing hope that this isolating and social distancing can end soon.
No fun at all...
Btw, one of the people in my organization has been ill since early last week. The symptoms were serious enough that her doctor tested for corona; she is positive. We had been together a few days before she became ill so my doctor has quarantined me for 14 days starting back when I was last with her. Fortunately I've not been in contact with anyone except mrs. stevew in that time. Though I did wander around Plum Island on Saturday and York beach on Sunday. Didn't get any closer than 10 feet to anyone.
P.S. I feel fine.
mikeski said...
I'm tired of self-congratulatory midwits peppering their endlessly repetitive bleating with terms that they imagine to be impressive.
I'm not asking if anyone is impressed. I'm asking if anyone can explain it. Epidemiologists can. Apparently random internet fuckwads can't.
Something I'm not tired of hearing is where this is not growing exponentially and is not a serious problem, which happens to be most places. After all this time, 11 states still have zero deaths, and 35 have less than 10. Nothing exponential about it there. If we only counted deaths solely due to Covid-19 it would be even better and more honest. In fact, most of the world is not in virus crisis. Just trying to give perspective a shot at the sunlight.
Boiling it down, there really are two complaints.
I am tired of hearing it’s just a conspiracy against Donald Trump.
I am tired of hearing people deny it’s a conspiracy against Donald Trump.
that's interesting
"Anthony Fauci rejected the analogy between car crashes and the coronavirus as a 'false equivalency.' "
I'm tired of the use of "false equivalency" as a counterargument. It's lazy and counterproductive.
“ The way you can prove that this is all a scam is that not enough homeless people have died.
They have the worst health. The worst living conditions. The most pre-existing health problems.”
They spend the most time in airports, take the most trips to Milan, entertain the most businessmen from Wuhan, spend the most time hanging out with Tom Hanks.
"Will you please put that fucking pangolin down and leave him alone!"
a community contagion, would indicate that, wouldn't it,
I am sick and tired of Bob Boyd kissing bats and civets and then acting all innocent. "This? What—you don't like pangolins?"
“I'm asking if anyone can explain it. Epidemiologists can. Apparently random internet fuckwads can't.”
Maybe that's why a career as a random internet fuckwad is more appealing. There has to be some reason we have so many.
"...or the terrorists will have won!"
I'm sick of people saying you have to sing through the "Happy Birthday" song twice when you wash your hands - especially sick because I always turn off the water after the first line.
I'm sick of hearing that more people will die because of the shutdowns than because of the disease.
I'm sick of the "they hate us and want to kill us" talk, but that's been a problem for a long time before the virus hit.
I'm a little tired of all the "Trump got it wrong" gotcha games. I don't love the guy, but everybody got it wrong at one point or another. Trump and the scientists/bureaucrats are addressing different concerns and don't work that badly together. It's not the stray details that matter but the big picture, the end result, and that's not going to be ideal in any case.
I'm tired of watching true crime television shows. They were the only thing on television before this and with all the talk about coronavirus, options have gotten even fewer.
exhelodrvr1 said...
The death rate is easily explained - if someone died of COVID-19 prior to Feb 15th or thereabouts, it very likely would have been attributed to flu/pneumonia/old age.
That's fine for what happened before Feb 15th. Now explain the last month, where the number of deaths each day had been increasing approximately by an amount proportional to the number of deaths the previous day.*
*I avoided that scary "e" word that seems to give some commenters the vapors.
If you like your pangolin, you can keep your pangolin.
<--- You're going to need a bigger blog
Not tired of hearing "I think Speaker Pelosi is incompetent. She lost the Congress once. I think she’s going to lose it again. She lifted my poll numbers up 10 points. I never thought that I would see that so quickly and so easily."
"I'm sick of people saying you have to sing through the "Happy Birthday" song twice when you wash your hands"
I can't remember all the words, except where they call you "panchito", so I sing the national anthem of Luxembourg.
“My pronouns are ...”
"Not tired of hearing "I think Speaker Pelosi is incompetent . . ."
Not tired of hearing what Meade is not tired of hearing.
Blogger Francisco D said...
We need to clarify the difference between "rate" and occurrences. The rate will go down drastically as the population is sampled to determine how many people actually contradicted the coronavirus. There is no way to currently determine if there is "exponential" growth in the death rate.
I'm not talk the case fatality rate, which requires knowing both the deaths and the cases, and which nobody is claiming is or should be rising exponentially. I'm talking the rate at which Americans are dying, which only requires knowing the deaths and the US population. I claim we have good numbers for both over the last two weeks.
"Now explain the last month, where the number of deaths each day had been increasing approximately by an amount proportional to the number of deaths the previous day.*"
Same explanation, but at a decreasing rate of non-diagnoses. Also, the virus is still spreading, and getting to "new" people. It has likely proceeded farther on that path than realized.
Coronavirus should be a wake-up call to our treatment of the animal world
I guess a lot of our denialists have another word they don’t like hearing. “Yet.”
Bright spot France is reporting the virus isn't mutating as a virus usually does.
If it keeps doubling every so many days, by July 800 million Americans will have it.
I mentioned before that I was getting tired of the phrase "flatting the curve." Getting close to the same with "herd immunity."
Meanwhile, best wishes steve.
I am sick and tired of Bob Boyd kissing bats and civets and then acting all innocent.
What happens in quarantine stays in quarantine.
"In 2015 Gov Cuomo refused to restock the required emergency supplies for pandemics, including ventilators, and instead used that money for green energy boondoggles."
Man am I sick of hearing about "green" energy. Crummy, expensive energy. No, thanks.
Things I was tired of hearing long before the corona virus:
"Muffin is having puppies again. I need you to go pick up the dog doula."
Big Mike said: "If it keeps doubling every so many days, by July 800 million Americans will have it."
Well, 650 million at most. Remember, already 150 million of us died due to "gun violence".
Ken B: "Maybe that's why a career as a random internet fuckwad is more appealing."
I beg your pardon sir. I was a fuckwad long before there was an internet.
narciso... unrelated? any verification for the "speech"?
I am sick and tired of Bob Boyd kissing bats and civets and then acting all innocent.
It's not an act, Meade. That's really how I feel after...after.
Phidippus said...
Ken B: "Maybe that's why a career as a random internet fuckwad is more appealing."
I beg your pardon sir. I was a fuckwad long before there was an internet
———-
I hate to be pedantic, but you are not a *random* fuckwad.
“Pangolin Smoothie: Tastes Great!... Now With Less Viral Load!"
Well OK. I think.
I'm becoming sick of the word "novel" -- both as an adjectival shorthand argument about coronavirus and as the noun that I really have no excuse not to be writing while I'm stuck at home.
Mmmmm, this sure is good pangolin!
PurplePangolin?
exhelodrvr1 said...
Same explanation, but at a decreasing rate of non-diagnoses. Also, the virus is still spreading, and getting to "new" people. It has likely proceeded farther on that path than realized.
Have you looked at the daily US deaths over time(scroll down for the daily deaths bar chart), particularly the last two weeks? Does that honestly look like the increase you would expect from increased testing of deaths?
We're getting close to the thousandth death in the US.
I expect to hear the cliché "grim milestone" again and again from the yapping dogs in the MSM.
Just you wait.
Man am I sick of hearing about "green" energy.
Climate change: Green energy plant threat to wilderness areas
- BBC via wattsupwiththat.com
The Green Blight, a veritable ecological pandemic. It seems that they need a booster sociopolitical inoculation. The first one only provided temporary indemnity.
A small sliver of not entirely bad news:
5210 new cases and 683 new deaths in Italy. 4th day in a row with daily new cases below the 6557 peak reached on March 21. (worldometers)
Note to self: don’t hire Tomcc to write Hallmark greeting cards.
Ken B: "Note to self: don’t hire Tomcc to write Hallmark greeting cards."
For daring to note actual virus numbers and trends Tomcc has crossed over into Ken B's "lacking in moral seriousness" category.
Just wait until Tomcc attempts to drill down deeper into the numbers! That's when he will enter Inga's "no belief in the sanctity of life" category!
I'm not sick of hearing anything.
In fact, I'm not sick at all.
I'm also available for corporate events!
"The downward spiral that you are currently experiencing will eventually end"
I'm tired of the phrase 'Out of an abundance of caution...".
It's become as overused and cliched as "What about the children?!?!?!"
I’m sick of hearing that Trump didn’t have 100,000 respirators in the basement of the White House. .
I’m sick of hearing “be safe”
I’m sick of people using the wrong metrics to use arithmetic to predict 11 million US deaths
I’m sick of being told to watch Italy or that we are now where Italy was a week ago
I’m sick of seeing how innumerate our credentialed are.
I'm going for a hike in the woods tomorrow. I need a vacation.
Separately, there's a woodpecker (not sure, "downy" or "hairy") working the issue on a dead branch on this tree right outside my bedroom window. I imagine he'll help me get up on time.
That branch is going to fall off and land on my head when I'm cutting the grass this summer. Premonition? Conspiracy? You decide.
Tomcc
Well, I never said I wouldn’t hire you as a speaker.
Ignorance,
If you read my comment, you would see that I attributed it to a combination of more accurate death diagnoses and an increase in the people sick with the virus.
“If you read my comment, you would see that I attributed it to a combination of more accurate death diagnoses and an increase in the people sick with the virus.”
A special combination which just happens to accidentally mimic exponential growth? Previously undetected. Isn’t it simpler to just assume actual exponential growth?
And Bliss can write a formula pretty easily. You say a combination. What combination exactly? Can you break it down?
“None of us was capable of exalted emotion [any longer] . . . People would say, ‘It’s high time it stopped.’ . . . But when making such remarks we felt none of the passionate yearning or fierce resentment of the early phase. . . . The furious revolt of the first few weeks had given way to a vast despondency. . . . The whole town looked like a railway waiting room.”
-- Camus, "The Plague"
Math is going to kill every damned one of us including all our future lives X 10.
The only number that matters is the number of deaths.
"In fact, I'm not sick at all."
Don't get cocky. Math knows where you're hiding.
"One is the loneliest number that you'll ever do
Two can be as bad as one
It's the loneliest number since the number one"
Meade said...
Not tired of hearing: “Hey, did you get your flu shot?”
Indeed. I suspect most of the readers and commenters on this blog aren't spring chickens. Please get your flu shot and your pneumonia 23 shot. The flu vaccine won't prevent one from getting the corona virus but one can have several comorbidities at once. What usually kills people with coronavirus is pneumonia arising often from bacterial infection from the fluid and pus in the lower lung getting infected with bacteria. And the additional inflammation from can result in sepsis. And that is a real killer.
While everyone is talking about ventilators no one is talking about ECMO machines. If the pneumonia is so bad that a ventilator and bronchoscopies can't save you,and that happens more often than most people think, then that is your last hope. There are only about 300 ECMO machines in the country. As for ventilators, getting twenty thousand or more machines would be great but where are the additional pulmonologists, ICU nurses, technicians and the support network for the telemetry monitoring? And to do the bronchoscopies to help suck out the fluid and pus?
While anecdote isn't data and for those who dismiss the H1N1 flu as not that serious, it isn't until it is. A friend of mine, a 48 year old woman refused to get the flu shot. Her husband did. They both got the flu but he had a mild case. She refused because she had a flue from the flu vaccine as a teenager. She got the flu and within a few days was so bad she went to the ER and the doctors told her ten more minutes and you have been dead. As it is they tried intubating her for a ventilator but her lungs were so filled with gunk from the flu that the ventilator could provide enough air to keep her oxygen levels high enough to sustain like for very long. Luckily the hospital was able to get her rushed to hospital that had an available ECMO machine. She was put into a medical coma and was on the ECMO machine for three weeks before she could improve enough to be put on a ventilator. Imagine that, getting on a ventilator as a step up. Finally she got off the ventilator a week and half ago and was sent to a rehab hospital. And then she gets pneumonia again in the hospital and is now once again in the ICU with a ventilator. To be sure, this is an extreme case but not an outlier. So if your old or have underlying comorbidities, get vaccinated for the flu and pneumonia as a precaution.
867-5201
call me.
The only number that matters is the number of deaths.
The number of preventable deaths. That's where the argument lies. What are the advantages and disadvantages of each approach? What and how much is the collateral damage? Why isn't the growth exponential? The infection rate may well be exponential, but the death and serious injury rate are not.
bagoh20 said...
867-5201
call me.
Wrong number. Jenny's not there.
I used to be Jenny, and the number isn't the only thing I changed.
The number of preventable deaths. That's where the argument lies. What are the advantages and disadvantages of each approach? What and how much is the collateral damage? Why isn't the growth exponential? The infection rate may well be exponential, but the death and serious injury rate are not.
All these things work towards one number. Deaths.
Browndog said...
The only number that matters is the number of deaths.
What matters is not the number of deaths so far. What matters is how many deaths there will be overall, how that number changes based on the choices we make, and the costs to our society of those choices.
That is why it is so important to have a model of the spread of the virus, that matches the data we have seen so far, so that we can make the best possible predictions of what will happen based on the actions we take
I'm tired of hearing those crusty democrat's false teeth trying to escape the lies passing over themselves.
IF this thing has been around since last November or so, and IF the rate of infection was high and IF the vast majority of those who got it had very mild cases with only a few knowing they are sick, just by the laws of large numbers, deaths would rise considerably over time. Even with a low mortality rate. If 325 million in the US had it, and 10% of those were severe, that's 32.5 million people. if .01% die, that's 325,000 people. Is it that contagious? No idea. Bring the infection rate down to 1/4 of the population with the same assumptions, *1,200 deaths. 1/10th population, 32,500 deaths. I have no idea if any of this is true, but neither does anyone else know if the assumptions resulting in stay at home and shutting down the country are true. Until we can test a representative number of the population, we have no idea how many people have caught it and what the mortality rate is. In any event, someone wanted to know how we could get the numbers we have now if the disease was here a month or so before we thought it was, here you go. BTW, the numbers of deaths in the US is 910. Globally its over 20K. It could be as bad as people claim. It might not be. WE DONT KNOW. We need massive testing to make good decisions.
In any event, someone wanted to know how we could get the numbers we have now if the disease was here a month or so before we thought it was, here you go.
No, here we don't go. Do the math. Or admit that you don't understand the math. Then have the humility to accept that maybe other people do understand the math, have done the math, and reached a different conclusion than you.
You are welcome to stick your head in the sand. Or you can listen to random fuckwads on the internet. Or you can do the hard work of learning the math so that you can reach an informed, reasoned, conclusion.
“What matters is not the number of deaths so far. What matters is how many deaths there will be overall, how that number changes based on the choices we make, and the costs to our society of those choices.
That is why it is so important to have a model of the spread of the virus, that matches the data we have seen so far, so that we can make the best possible predictions of what will happen based on the actions we take.”
That just makes too much sense, they’ll reject it.
"What matters is how many deaths there will be overall, how that number changes based on the choices we make, and the costs to our society of those choices."
More precisely, what matters is the number of excess deaths.
In another post, he talks about three "notable people who have died of the coronavirus." They were 81, 86, and 89 years old.
“Btw, one of the people in my organization has been ill since early last week. The symptoms were serious enough that her doctor tested for corona; she is positive. We had been together a few days before she became ill so my doctor has quarantined me for 14 days starting back when I was last with her. Fortunately I've not been in contact with anyone except mrs. stevew in that time. Though I did wander around Plum Island on Saturday and York beach on Sunday. Didn't get any closer than 10 feet to anyone.”
No worries, it’s no worse than the flu.
"So if your old or have underlying comorbidities, get vaccinated for the flu and pneumonia as a precaution."
Exactly right, cubanbob, and well put. I don't want to hear any excuses—if you are 65, you qualify for the pneumonia vax. Yes it's a couple hundred bucks out of pocket but it's good for the next 30 years. Cheap. And an annual flu vax at Walgreens is what $10? What's your excuse? Oh, you hate needles. The needles they use now are so thin you literally will not feel it.
Come on, people, I have an advance directive for you: get your damn shots. I don't care how old or young you are. Be a grown up about it.
Inga- you know people die from the flu, right?
I'm tired of hearing "Look at those idiots getting toilet paper!" Yeesh. Yes, people over react when they are scared and don't know what to do. Its herd instinct.
MayBee said... [hush][hide comment]
Inga- you know people die from the flu, right?
She forgot..
Bliss
You have run up against the ignorance here I see. What is really disturbing is the pride they take in it. It's like meeting stock characters from a stage comedy. “When I hear the word ‘exponential’ I reach for my Smith & Wesson.”
Looks to me like more than half of the people who die of the flu failed to get vaccinated. What's your excuse? Allergic to eggs? Okay, that does make you special and rare. Anyone else pontificating about this novel pandemic virus that has NO VACCINE available yet who has no excuse for not getting your annual flu shot back in Sept/Oct.? You need to pipe way down.
Or you can listen to random fuckwads on the internet.
Note: I realize that to you I appear to be just another random fuckwad on the internet. The great thing is, if you learn to do the math, you can determine, for yourself, which random fuckwads know what they are talking about, and which ones are full of shit
Got my flu shot. Can I still say that anyone saying that Covid is milder than the flu and besides people die in fires and we don’t implement a lockdown over it is full of shit?
As far as I'm concerned, if you got your flu shot, you are demonstrably part of the solution. You can say pretty much anything you want.
I got my flu shot.
Is anyone saying Covid is milder than the flu?
Thank you sir. Then I shall exercise it now and anger the usual suspects. My advice:
Read Taleb on risk.
This will anger the usual suspects because
1 Taleb writes about math
2 it involves reading
It appears to depend on who catches them.
“Is anyone saying Covid is milder than the flu?”
Yes. Several regulars here.
(I apologize in advance if someone is tired of hearing that)
Ken B: "Yes. Several regulars here."
Name them.
Ken B- I think it *can* be. I don't think anyone is denying its awfulness for many who get it.
Perhaps we should consult self-proclaimed (literally) "Professor" Biden what he thinks about all this.
“Is anyone saying Covid is milder than the flu?”
Yes. Several regulars here.
Sometimes it is, sometimes it is not. Math is hard
Perhaps we should consult self-proclaimed (literally) "Professor" Biden what he thinks about all this.
Better hurry, he seems to be sinking fast..
"Professor" Biden, oh that good. ;-) What's sadder than a champion bullshitter who can't keep his bullshit straight?
Right, because it's not like people have a good reason for buying more toilet paper than usual when they and their family members have to be at home all the time, and governments are announcing increasingly strict lockdowns.
You're going to need a little bit more TP with everyone home, but not a lot. Certainly not the dozens of packages people are buying.
Sadly, if other people start hoarding it's rational for you to hoard as well, because there will be shortages.
Ken B said...
“Is anyone saying Covid is milder than the flu?”
Yes. Several regulars here.
Ken B cannot participate in a discussion in good faith.
He just has to lie about what other people are saying to make himself right.
He is seeing that some of us were right all along and he is being a turd about it.
Costco and the other warehouse stores have got people accustomed to buying larger packages. That's what they sell there. The unit cost is less. Maybe that habit carries over into the panic buying. If you always have a 48-roll or 60-roll package in the basement you may become accustomed to thinking that you need that much toilet paper, and in an emergency - two or three times that much.
@Inga (8:17), speaking as a mathematician with numerous successful models under my belt during my career, I am appalled by what passes for modeling the spread and morbidity of this virus. The problem is that the CDC insisted on developing its own test for COVID-19 (the “not invented here” syndrome), insisted on monopolizing test development (empire building), and then botched the test development. This set the US at least three weeks behind in testing, which may have been the reason an infected staffer at an assisted living facility in Washington state was not detected until a large number of the elderly patients had died.
You are very right in insisting that the models must match the data. Exactly correct! My point is that the delays in making tests available means we don’t know whether new cases are really new cases or whether some percentage are old, very mild, cases that are just now diagnosed. And until we know that, any model we build must, necessarily, be overly pessimistic.
There were about 800,000 deaths by abortion in the US last year.
Coronavirus doesn't even compare.
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