Stay at home as much as possible. Listen to the experts, ignore the morons (foreheads). We will get through this together. pic.twitter.com/FRg41QehuB
— Arnold (@Schwarzenegger) March 16, 2020
March 16, 2020
Tiny horses help Arnold Schwarzenegger show you how to stay home.
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321 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 321 of 321J. Farmer said...
Achilles:
More or less Farmer?
Baaaaah.
It's telling that the issue of numbers of deaths has been addressed by myself and others on this blog dozens and dozens of time, and you still think it's some kind of gotcha point. To paraphrase The Dude, "Achilles, I love you, but sooner or later, you're going to have to realize the fact that you're a god damn moron."
Are you trying to tell me fewer people went to the hospital because of swine flu?
That it took fewer hospital resources?
What precisely is different now?
Achilles, it's not about the number of deaths. It's about the number of acute cases that require hospitalization--all at once. Which is why they're trying to spread it out--flatten the curve. Why do you have a problem with this?
Full Moon,
Only Hunter's artwork can pull us together.
J. Farmer said...
God forbid you think about anybody but yourself.
Do you not even realize the irony of your douchey snark? Now you can fuck off.
I am angry now. You want to claim this is selfish?
There are a lot of people now in industries like food service that can't work. They have rent to pay and kids to feed. People own restaurants. There are so many small businesses that can't deal with disruptions like this.
This is causing real pain and suffering.
The numbers just aren't there you innumerate douchbag.
I'm intrigued that the severe/critical case number hasn't really budged for the US, and that's the number we really should be focused on. Italy is still logging >3,000 new cases per day, and >300 deaths per day, but most importantly, their severe/critical number is 1,851, which has overwhelmed their capacity.
It is pure foolishness to talk about mortality rates when we have literally no idea how many people are infected anywhere. (I suppose S. Korea has the best data?) Until everyone gets tested and we know how many people have already recovered (and fwiw, I think I'm in that category, too), we won't have that data. As I saw recently somewhere else, we have no idea what the denominator is in that calculation, so even if we have good data on the numerator (which I doubt), there's still no point in talking about that number, mortality rate. Or, come to think of it, the R#, either, for the same reasons.
The only number we should be talking about, and should care about, is the number of severe/critical cases, and how that is tracking with capacity. An online friend posted the timely reminder that if COVID-19 cases are taking up all the hospital beds, that means there will be less or NO care available for all the other health-related crises that are going on all the time, and the death rate for everything requiring medical intervention goes up all around.
I think this emergency is like a blizzard. I was an obnoxious teen during the Blizzard of '78 (which was really at least 2 [several?] consecutive snow storms) in Boston, and everything shut down for days, state of emergency, everyone stay home, the whole shmear. Nobody argued with it (or perhaps they did, there was no internet then on which to air their grievances), because the threat was obvious and visible. COVID-19 is neither of those things, but R#>1 and exponential growth patterns don't melt like snow does.
There were those people who had to go out in the snow and on the bad roads, first responders and medical personnel. Everyone else who went out was just as likely to make more work for the first group because the roads really were not drivable (no one had 4-wheel drive back then). The big difference now is, if you're going out, you're not just putting yourself at risk, you're endangering many more people.
The LAST place you want to be right now is a hospital, so don't do anything that lands you there.
mockturtle said...
Achilles, it's not about the number of deaths. It's about the number of acute cases that require hospitalization--all at once. Which is why they're trying to spread it out--flatten the curve. Why do you have a problem with this?
Because the numbers just aren't there.
Swine Flu did the same thing. Same spike. Same "overwhelming resources." All at once. National emergencies. Blah blah blah.
Just orders of magnitude more people got sick and orders of magnitude more people died. About the same numbers as die from the flu and get sick from the flu every year.
Take precautions. Close travel. Isolate certain populations.
But this freak out and closing everything is stupid.
@Achilles:
Do you not even realize the irony of your douchey snark? Now you can fuck off.
I don't think you understand what irony means. In consultation with our clients, my business is closing down. I employ 27 people full time, and I am covering their pay while we are not working.
I am angry now. You want to claim this is selfish?
I don't need to "claim" it; I can just read your words.
There are a lot of people now in industries like food service that can't work. They have rent to pay and kids to feed. People own restaurants. There are so many small businesses that can't deal with disruptions like this.
This is causing real pain and suffering.
Precisely why I've been saying for weeks that the government needs to put money in people's hands to mitigate the disruptions from social isolation, and big business needs to get on board and do their part to. The fact that so many are leveraged to the hilt and can so easily get caught in a cash crunch doesn't bode well for us.
The numbers just aren't there you innumerate douchbag.
The entire point of this is to keep the numbers from getting there, dipshit. If there were a small fire in your home, would you extinguish it as quickly as possible or just ignore since it's only a "small" fire. The entire point of quick attention is that small fires can very easily and very quickly turn into big fires. You don't call the fireman after your house burns down.
The totalitarians ALWAYS have a good reason for taking away your freedom. And you ALWAYS have a good reason to know that they are totalitarians: It's because they want to take away your freedom.
the deleterious of a prolongued shutdown, based on an extrapolation of trends in Italy, on the middle class is something to consider, the big corporations they'll recover unless sanders gets elected then it's adios muchacho (Spanish lingo from that a team film)
God forbid you think about anybody but yourself.
3/16/20, 4:49 PM
God only knows what motivates *your* reasoning on this, J-Fa. But of course *your* motivation is irrelevant. Whatever it is, you seem highly emotional.
Achilles, the timing is also bad for me, but whining will do no good. We need to adapt, overcome, endure. I agree this is overblown but perhaps 50% of it is necessary. Therefore half is wasted, but as the guy said about his advertising, I wish I knew which half.
Too bad everyone can't get their deliveries by robo-drone yet, I guess.
Link is included above but isn't visible unless you hover over it, so here's the US data:
WorldoMeters US Coronavirus Info
If you're questioning whether or not we're experiencing exponential growth, these graphs make it obvious. If the curvy lines are confounding you, click on "logarithmic" to see the nice straight lines with positive slopes plotted against the logarithmic Y-axis intervals.
BUT! Still only 12 severe/critical cases, versus 10 yesterday. That's GREAT news as far as I'm concerned. Keep that number low and we're doing the right thing, for everyone.
@Nichevo:
God only knows what motivates *your* reasoning on this, J-Fa. But of course *your* motivation is irrelevant. Whatever it is, you seem highly emotional.
As I've said repeatedly, social distancing isn't just not about getting sick. It's about not getting other people sick. Yes, I have this crazy selfish notion that if I get infected, I don't want to pass it on to others.
Not emotional at all about the issue. Do I get annoyed with fuckwits like Achilles who use phrases like "bleating sheep" to people who are taking prudent precautions.
The Trudeas are always good for a laugh
https://twitter.com/TheRealKeean/status/1239642394489847808
You know it's a crisis when Althouse leaves a post with an grammar/spelling error in the title up.
"Tiny horses help Arnold Schwarzenegger shows you how to stay home."
Schools are closed for 6 weeks by order of the Governor.
OK. My wife and I are juggling schedules and taking time off work. Everyone in our kid's classes are dealing with this garbage.
We even send our kids to private school but they are included in this asinine bullshit.
Now how about those property taxes.
BTW, I did a conception date calculation on Trudeau, and it looks like he was conceived on Mom and Dad’s honeymoon. Absent some P*rnhub level shenanigans, I will drop the Castro thing.
"Dire Predictions For Swine Flu's Future
July 24, 2009 / 9:38 AM / AP
Two major health organizations say the H1N1 (swine flu) pandemic could effect a vast portion of the world's population in the coming years. In the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that the number of Americans stricken with H1N1 could reach 20 to 40 percent of the population over the next two years.
Meanwhile, the World Health Organization's flu chief says the global H1N1(swine flu) outbreak is still in its early stages and 2 billion infections over the course of the pandemic is "a reasonable ballpark to be looking at."
Keiji Fukuda, WHO's Assistant Director-General for Health Security and Environment, told The Associated Press on Friday that previous pandemics show even a few million cases could be "relatively early in the pandemic" and that given the size of the world's population, the new H1N1 virus is likely to spread for some time.
Based on the new projections, the number of swine flu deaths in the U.S. over two years could range from 90,000 to several hundred thousand, if efforts to stem the flu failed.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dire-predictions-for-swine-flus-future/
If I may chime in.
Achilles has his own unique style, but he is basically correct. (And, for the record, I like his style!)
To ignore the ACTUAL NUMBERS of ACTUAL DEATHS to focus on speculative graphs, is just idiotic to the extreme. Think about it -- according to Johns Hopkins -- nearly 80,000 of the cases have recovered.
Well, is this a surprise? Don't we all get the flu or cold every winter, and generally recover in 1 or 2 days?
You have otherwise intelligent people ignoring what's happening in their own lives, what's happened in the past 20 years of the lives, and running around yapping about graphs that they don't understand.
Actual numbers:
California 39 Million
No. Corona deaths: 6
Repeat this often. Think about it. Digest it.
@J Farmer,
As I've said repeatedly, social distancing isn't just not about getting sick. It's about not getting other people sick. Yes, I have this crazy selfish notion that if I get infected, I don't want to pass it on to others.
Did you apply this crazy selfish notion LAST winter, when 35 Million Americans got the flu and 34,000 died?
“ Schools are closed for 6 weeks by order of the Governor.”
What you don’t realize is that you can argue that is an overreaction and a bad policy without pretending that covid is a nothing burger.
Farmer is right about this thread.
Congratulations to Achilles and a few others for creating a thread where Inga and Farmer are the sensible ones! It took some doing but you were up to the challenge!
I'm 77 years old with a heart condition, and I DON'T live in California, so Gov. Newsome can't stop me from leaving my house. I live in North Carolina. I went out today to get my car serviced. If my car weren't working, I wouldn't be able to obtain necessities for my wife and me. I may have to leave the house tomorrow to pick up some of the medications that keep my heart condition under control. The car is necessary for that. I will probably also go out to pick up groceries so we can eat.
I believe that elderly people ought to minimize their risk of contracting Covid-19, and my wife and I are doing that. But think about what kind of mind converts that idea into a threat to put people like us in jail if we dare to go out into the world to take care of ourselves. Then, if you live in California, think whether that's the kind of mind you want to run your government.
With incomplete data as mentioned above, it's a bit difficult to quantify/predict the degree that US rates/spikes will compare to Italy's, no?
In this context, I can't imagine a pol less likely to overreach re biz here than Trump.
But the pressure is certainly higher given the political cycle.
I question whether Trump should have discussed predictions of duration.
Joan- thanks for the link. I suspect we will experience exponential growth as testing ramps up, for sure.
J. Farmer said...
The entire point of this is to keep the numbers from getting there, dipshit. If there were a small fire in your home, would you extinguish it as quickly as possible or just ignore since it's only a "small" fire. The entire point of quick attention is that small fires can very easily and very quickly turn into big fires. You don't call the fireman after your house burns down.
So we didn't freak out over Swine Flu why?
Do you know why there is a "flu season?"
You are freaking out because people are taking advantage of your ignorance and people out here are paying the price.
I love this line too:
Precisely why I've been saying for weeks that the government needs to put money in people's hands to mitigate the disruptions from social isolation, and big business needs to get on board and do their part to. The fact that so many are leveraged to the hilt and can so easily get caught in a cash crunch doesn't bode well for us.
Farmer thinks the government is where money and wealth come from.
We should just do this every time some new strain of the flu/cold comes up and kills several thousand people.
Lets take 2 or 3 months off and the government will just give us some money.
That's good stuff.
Joan, I noted that this morning- the small number of critical/serious in the US. I hypothesized that this indicates that a good number of the people dying in the US were on their last legs at home, and simply didn't go to the hospital. I suspect a similar thing happened in Italy, though possibly increased because the hospitals were overrun.
If the US number of critical/serious stays below a 1000 over the next 2-3 weeks, then we will weather it about as well as could be expected. If that number starts spiking up 100/day in the next week, then there is good reason to be concerned.
I just took a close look at Italy's numbers- basically, they were at our case numbers on March 7th, both new and total, and reported, over the three days sandwiching that, 200 total deaths. So, watch the US death totals between today inclusive, and the next two days.
Latest US numbers: 4558 confirmed cases, 85 deaths.
@Bay Area Guy:
Did you apply this crazy selfish notion LAST winter, when 35 Million Americans got the flu and 34,000 died?
Oh for fuck's sake.
Since people have made this point over and over again, and I have answered it over and over again, I see no reason in repeating it again. Google the question and read as many responses as you like. But there is no reason talking to someone who refuses to listen.Anthony Fauci, the head of Trump's own task force, has explained why Covid-19 is more worrying than the flu. Let me see if I can make this any clearer: PEOPLE DYING IS NOT THE ONLY CONCERN ABOUT COVID-19. Do you get that? Is it getting through? Do you you get that? Relatively few people have died in Italy, too, and the disease has still created havoc for their health system and healthcare workers.
And while I'm at it, let me make a brief mention of swine flu, even though I've addressed that same argument before. Even though it's still too early to definitively know what the CFR for Covid-19 is, let's just assume it was 0.2%. All estimates so far place it higher than that but let's for argument's sake use 0.2%. That would make it twice as deadly as regular flu, and ten times as deadly as swine flu, which had an overall mortality rate of 0.02% in 2009.
Ken B said...
“ Schools are closed for 6 weeks by order of the Governor.”
What you don’t realize is that you can argue that is an overreaction and a bad policy without pretending that covid is a nothing burger.
Compared to what?
Car accidents? Heart attacks? Cancer? THE FLU?
Everyone dies.
Everyone. 150,000 people die every day. During flu season thousands die every day from the flu.
Multiples more people died and were seriously sick today with the flu than with COVID-19.
But if we name it COVID-19 we can crash the world economy, close schools and give local tin pots the power to close down businesses.
The best part is if you point out the actual numbers to people they get mad.
5:14What you don’t realize is that you can argue that is an overreaction and a bad policy without pretending that covid is a nothing burger.
"5:10
Well, is this a surprise? Don't we all get the flu or cold every winter, and generally recover in 1 or 2 days?
You have otherwise intelligent people ignoring what's happening in their own lives, what's happened in the past 20 years of the lives, and running around yapping about graphs that they don't understand.
Actual numbers:
California 39 Million
No. Corona deaths: 6"
Well, at this particular point in time, is it an over reaction? Some might reasonably think so
Due to toilet paper shortage, California Governor Newsome declared odd/even defecation schedules determined by year of birth.
@Achilles:
You are freaking out because people are taking advantage of your ignorance and people out here are paying the price.
Except I am not "freaking out." I am completely calm and rational. Maybe you can speak to the more two dozen people whose livelihoods I am responsible for, and see if any of them agree with you.
Also, Donald Trump, apparently a "bleating sheep" on twitter two days ago: "SOCIAL DISTANCING!"
Farmer thinks the government is where money and wealth come from.
That has nothing to do with anything I said. I am well aware that taxpayers like myself paid your salary while you were an employee of the government. And I am well aware of where billions of dollars in aid to farmers that the Trump administration has paid out. And I am well aware of where the money to fund the government's $700 billion military budget per year comes from. And I am well aware of where the money to rebuild Iraq and Afghanistan comes from. And I am well aware of where the trillion-plus dollars in deficit spending we've been doing come from.
Anytime you want to compare 1040s, let me know.
The U.S. ranks 37th in cases per million (13). That must mean we are doing something right, becuase we were at or near the top of travel destinations when this thing started spreading.
@Achilles:
Everyone. 150,000 people die every day. During flu season thousands die every day from the flu.
Brilliant logic there. People die every day so why do anything to stop death.
DOW Futures are green! Up 62! Happy Days are Here Again!
The U.S. ranks 37th in cases per million (13). That must mean we are doing something right, becuase we were at or near the top of travel destinations when this thing started spreading.
Hard to compare cases to other places when the per capita amount of testing being done differs.
Anyway, I think I've said all I care to say about this topic here. These threads are just turning into a giant circle jerk of everyone saying the same thing over and over and over again. I am taking a hiatus. Catch you all on the flip side. Peace!
“Just when you thought you were out... They drag you back in."
When the Swine Flu was identified in 2009, no one suddenly starting testing illnesses willy nilly, or deaths from respiratory failure (the vast majority of influenza-linked deaths). Had they done so, it isn't unreasonable to believe the graphs in a lot of places might have looked just like they do today for COVID-19. Remember, you are starting the looking for cases of illness and death at the same time, but here is the problem- pretty much all deaths in a 1st world country get officially reported and described, and if you are testing a specific kind of death for a virus as a federal/state policy, you would have found a lot of H1N1 deaths showing up in the Spring of 2009 (let's say 100/month at first, then a thousand a month), but far fewer active cases of H1N1 because so few people would have bothered to go to a clinic or an ER.
I think if we had treated H1N1 just like COVID-19 testing protocol in the US, you would have seen a similar mortality figure- a figure that can only actually be calculated in retrospect by random sampling of the population for antibodies to H1N1.
I do think COVID is more fatal, but I don't think the percent is anywhere close to 3-5%- I think Fauci is right- less than 1%, and we won't actually know until well into next year.
I would argue with you J, but I agree with you.
BagO, it's a meaningless statistic, since the US is severely limiting testing. A coworker brought her 9-year-old to the ER last night with classic COVID-19 symptoms, and she was stunned that the ER docs refused to give her the coronavirus test. They treated her symptoms and sent her home. I believe her respiratory distress responded well to the usual treatments (nebulizer, etc), and so she did not need to be admitted. But she also didn't need to be tested, either, because her treatment would be the same regardless.
This situation is playing out hundreds, thousands of times in ERs across the world. We have literally no idea how many people have it. Do I think my co-worker's daughter has coronavirus? I don't know, but I know I'll be massively pissed if that co-worker shows up at work tomorrow (we have today off). Even though her daughter wasn't tested, she should be ACTING as if her daughter has the virus and self-quarantining her entire family. They've all be exposed.
ps
I've always loved your screen name.
"Hard to compare cases to other places when the per capita amount of testing being done differs."
Yes and no. Every respiratory death in the US is being tested, so you can probably use the total deaths as some marker for whose systems are best handling the disease. As I pointed out above, when Italy was at our numbers of new/total cases, they reporting at least 2 to 3 times the number of dead. Now, the US reported the most dead to date today (last time I looked, it was 17 today). If we follow Italy's numbers from the March 6-8 time period, then tomorrow it will be around 40, then the day after 90, then the day after that 200 etc. Let's revisit this on Friday.
I am taking a hiatus. Catch you all on the flip side. Peace!
Oh, sure you can afford it.
Oh, wait, nevermind..
J. Farmer said...
Oh for fuck's sake.
Pretty much.
You are immune to facts and actual numbers.
I like the 200 words you used after that to explain how the actual numbers don't matter.
The only good thing about this is elections like 2020 don't happen that often and we wont have the media whipping up the sheep when a democrat is president.
You know it is sunny outside and the temperatures are starting to go up?
Do you know why flu seasons end every year?
On treating the disease, Germany is a standout.
“Just when you thought you were out... They drag you back in."
:)
I do love a good argument. But there's a difference between arguing and beating your head against a brick wall. Wishing everyone happiness and healthiness.
p.s. I am leaving tonight to pick my father up in Brooklyn and then turning around and driving home 34 hours on the road. Oy. But we both agreed he should avoid airports and airplanes. You know how us "bleating sheep" can be ;)
J. Farmer said...
@Achilles:
Everyone. 150,000 people die every day. During flu season thousands die every day from the flu.
Brilliant logic there. People die every day so why do anything to stop death.
You took a quote out of the entire post and twisted the context in a completely dishonest way.
I accept your surrender.
You have no actual arguments or facts. You are an emotional baby that got duped.
Sir, are you really under the age of 65? Can I see your I.D.?
Yeah, never thought I would see a world where actual senior citizens would have a need for fake ID to go out an buy liquor.
I noticed he favored the blond pony—
swish, swish
@FullMoon:
Oh, sure you can afford it.
Oh, wait, nevermind..
Not that you particularly care, but my company will be billing zero dollars for the second half of March and all of April, and I am still covering the expenses. I am more than willing to put my money where my mouth is.
Yancey Ward said...
"Hard to compare cases to other places when the per capita amount of testing being done differs."
Yes and no. Every respiratory death in the US is being tested, so you can probably use the total deaths as some marker for whose systems are best handling the disease. As I pointed out above, when Italy was at our numbers of new/total cases, they reporting at least 2 to 3 times the number of dead. Now, the US reported the most dead to date today (last time I looked, it was 17 today). If we follow Italy's numbers from the March 6-8 time period, then tomorrow it will be around 40, then the day after 90, then the day after that 200 etc. Let's revisit this on Friday.
And in the 2018 flu season more than 400 people were dying every day in the US for 5 months straight.
"Brooklyn and then turning around and driving home 34 hours on the road. “
Just don’t tell anybody he came from Brooklyn. I am getting a feeling that there is going to be a nationwide lockdown on travel at some point here if the curve doesn’t flatten out soon.
Dow Futures almost up 300. The old whipsaw. Run ‘em up, knock ‘em down. Shear the sheep.
Not that you particularly care, but my company will be billing zero dollars for the second half of March and all of April, and I am still covering the expenses. I am more than willing to put my money where my mouth is.
Now, now, now, no need to miss a joke when offered.
See, the inference that you are wealthy enough to take time off as opposed to those ..
oh, nevermind.
People have to stay home because His Greatness the Donald decreed that we were too good for test kits and now have to be on guard against every other American - instead of just determining who's infected and whose at risk. What a brilliant way to run an economy.
People will remember this in November. And I think for a lot longer.
oh, nevermind
Not finding something funny isn’t the same thing as not getting the joke ;)
Hence my intro: “not that you particularly care...”
Stay healthy and be safe.
President Toilet Paper Shoe's Cooked-Up Drug Deal said...
People have to stay home because His Greatness the Donald decreed that we were too good for test kits and now have to be on guard against every other American - instead of just determining who's infected and whose at risk. What a brilliant way to run an economy.
People will remember this in November. And I think for a lot longer.
Who is the democrat challenger going to be?
I can't think it will be the senile coot or the sellout that are the current two options.
Who are they going to pull out of the crowd?
"Brilliant logic there. People die every day so why do anything to stop death."
You took a quote out of the entire post and twisted the context in a completely dishonest way.
No he didn't. He can see how far you will go to downplay the devastation of this mitigable disaster.
Far enough to stick your tongue all the way up President Platinum Blondie's butt? Geez, the two of you have the hygiene sensibilities of a goddamn wet market, complete with slaughtered dogs and bats and rats and so many other zoonotic delicacies.
I'm trying to decide which is more revolting? Wuhan butchering practices, Trump or his followers.
The three form a perfect trifecta for devastating the American economy, our values and total society.
Just disgusting.
@Aunty Trump:
Just don’t tell anybody he came from Brooklyn. I am getting a feeling that there is going to be a nationwide lockdown on travel at some point here if the curve doesn’t flatten out soon.
Luckily he's been on a boat the last four weeks moving barges between Brooklyn and Bayonne, New Jersey so has had no contact with locals. The company has the crew checking their temperature twice a day.
"....my company will be billing zero dollars for the second half of March and all of April, and I am still covering the expenses. "
Hold on a sec. Are you working for free and paying employees, or are you taking time off and paying normal business expenses?
Who is the democrat challenger going to be?
Doesn't really matter now, does it. I think any one of them has enough sense to NOT say, "Oh, this global pandemic in the making... why test for it if the kits are from the WHO? We're great enough. We can handle this. We don't need any help."
We can wreck our markets by a third of their value (and dropping) all by ourselves, apparently.
What talent. What greatness.
All you'd have to do is NOT slash your CDC and NOT dismiss what any experts would have told you. And NOT be a cheap ass farthole who thinks those agencies are worthless but somehow those corporate and executive tax breaks will work magic. Just not when people are dying and the streets are emptying.
Duh.
We knew it would only be a matter of time with this guy. What a disaster.
It is literally impossible to test everyone who has cold symptoms right now- you have to triage how to use a limited resource in this case, and every country on the planet is doing this, even South Korea.
Our Canadian snowbird neighbors are heading home and will have to self-quarantine for two weeks after they arrive back in Canada. Those in RVs can easily isolate themselves on the trip but presumably some will be flying or using motels and restaurants.
@FullMoon:
Hold on a sec. Are you working for free and paying employees, or are you taking time off and paying normal business expenses?
We are ceasing operations tentatively through the end of April. We have a few salaried employees who mostly do administrative overhead. The clinicians do not have a set salary because it depends on the services we bill for in any given period, but we agreed on a figure that is roughly equivalent to the same that would've earned over the same time period based on last year's figures.
p.s. I am leaving tonight to pick my father up in Brooklyn and then turning around and driving home 34 hours on the road. Oy. But we both agreed he should avoid airports and airplanes. You know how us "bleating sheep" can be ;)
Be safe, Farmer! God bless you.
PresTPetc wins the thread for deploying the term "zoonotic" after tangentially relating it to said thread.
The term screams for use in a limerick, something with exotic? I'm not clever enough.
FullMoon: "Taking time off" implies vacation. Closing your business temporarily because you have NO business to do is what I believe J.Fa is doing, while continuing to pay his employees, which is probably a bit more $$$ than covering their unemployment insurance.
It is literally impossible to test everyone who has cold symptoms right now- you have to triage how to use a limited resource in this case, and every country on the planet is doing this, even South Korea.
Oh yeah? Guess who's doing it A LOT less than they should be or than most decent industrialized democracies are doing?
You guessed it. AMURIKUH.
Fuck. These losers will defend anything the guy does. Like his lawyers argued in court, shooting someone on Fifth Avenue is even on the table.
Just every Republican in the world needs to go away right now. Stay in their holes, and not come back until the sun shines again and Democrats have restored the markets and the ability of Americans to get things done and not fear that every other one could be the next Patient Zero.
What a bunch of losers these Republicans are.
Thurber said flowered shower curtains helps horses feel at home.
Joan
but I know I'll be massively pissed if that co-worker shows up at work tomorrow (we have today off). Even though her daughter wasn't tested, she should be ACTING as if her daughter has the virus and self-quarantining her entire family. They've all be exposed.
And not that you want whatever it is she has, COVID or not.
We are ceasing operations tentatively through the end of April. We have a few salaried employees who mostly do administrative overhead. The clinicians do not have a set salary because it depends on the services we bill for in any given period, but we agreed on a figure that is roughly equivalent to the same that would've earned over the same time period based on last year's figures.
10/10
Have a safe trip..and take tp with you, just in case.
10/10
Have a safe trip..and take tp with you, just in case.
Thanks you.
President Toilet Paper Shoe's Cooked-Up Drug Deal said...
Who is the democrat challenger going to be?
Doesn't really matter now, does it. ...
You could have saved everyone time and just told us you had a nice big bowl of stupid for breakfast this morning.
Dang, in the time it took me to type up that post, PresTPetc blew it by repeating the lie that Trump dismantled the CDC and dismissed experts. I'm revoking the thread-winner trophy.
Bolton's take
President Toilet Paper Shoe's Cooked-Up Drug Deal said...
"Brilliant logic there. People die every day so why do anything to stop death."
You took a quote out of the entire post and twisted the context in a completely dishonest way.
No he didn't. He can see how far you will go to downplay the devastation of this mitigable disaster.
Far enough to stick your tongue all the way up President Platinum Blondie's butt? Geez, the two of you have the hygiene sensibilities of a goddamn wet market, complete with slaughtered dogs and bats and rats and so many other zoonotic delicacies.
I'm trying to decide which is more revolting? Wuhan butchering practices, Trump or his followers.
The three form a perfect trifecta for devastating the American economy, our values and total society.
Just disgusting.
There you go Farmer.
You and Ritmo are operating at the same level of reason and logic.
Bolton doesn't run the CDC, dingbat Joan.
Bolton's opinions are apparently important to you when he's getting trillion dollar wars launched or when Mr. America First boots him out of office?
Make up your mindless mind.
There you go Farmer.
You and Ritmo are operating at the same level of reason and logic.
C'mon , man! That is going to far. Not a joke..
So people dying is NOT THE ONLY CONCERN.
Well what else is there? Lets do logic:
1) This shutdown can't last forever. Unless you want to destroy the economy.
2) When the "lid comes off" the virus will spread like any flu and people will die.
3) The current shutdown is only about "flattening the curve" so the death toll will be minimized and not exaggerated due to an overloaded Health System.
4) Minor things like closing Restaurants and bars - won't in the long run - make a difference. ITS ALL PR.
5) So, how much of this disruption is REALLY necessary? We don't know, because every time someone tries to find out and talk sense...
6) A bunch of hysterical ninnies start shouting that PEOPLE WILL DIE! ITS A PANDEMIC!
Let the record show that no one ever, anywhere, requested or got anything useful out of Achilles' reasoning or logic.
Aren't you pretty near the Kirkland Life Care Center, Achilles? Maybe you could do everyone a favor, head on over there and inhale deeply from its air vents.
Thanks!
All the morons in my area have now cleared out all the Chicken, Pork, and 90% of the Beef. And because of the hoarding, the grocery stores are no discounting their prices, a steak was $20/lbs! For some reason the dummies didn't clean out the bacon, there was plenty of that. OR the cheese. God knows why.
The managers said another "shipment" is due on Tuesday AM, so what are we supposed to do - go stand in line at 6 AM (like the old USSR) to make sure we get some chicken?
All this is happening because the Boobs have been told to panic.
6) A bunch of hysterical ninnies start shouting that PEOPLE WILL DIE! ITS A PANDEMIC!
Actually, the World Health Organization declared it a pandemic. Because it is one. The same people who offered Trump testing kits that he denied, preferring instead to artificially deflate his COVID-19 numbers even if it kept the health systems and response teams in the dark about knowing who even had/has it.
It's as brilliant as fighting a fire while blindfolding yourself.
This is how Republicans operate. Preferring the ignorance of a danger to effectively facing it.
Thanks Governor Terminators, for that inspiring message from your luxury home in your gated California neighborhood. When the supermarkets run out of food due to government-induced panic hoarding, how about we invite ourselves to Arnold's for some mini-horse bar-b-que ?
Now now PresTPetc, you may still be able to win a trophy some other day. Keep trying!
I agree, actually, that Bolton isn't the most reliable, but the link seemed relatively well-reported. But if you don't like that one, how about FactCheck.org?
Trump wanted to artificially deflate US COVID-19 numbers, because he thought it would help him the same way it helped him to under-report the value of his real estate holdings when cheating his tax bill for them.
But look at the cost to America now. Pretty high.
Don't forget those of us who are unemployed! How the hell am I supposed to find a job with this going on?
3/16/20, 1:10 PM
I have a hs friend in that situation. She is looking for work as a paralegal.
Today she applied for a job at Costco. She figures they're hiring.
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/486817-trump-budget-chief-holds-firm-on-cdc-cuts-amid-virus-outbreak
You're really thinking there's a way to make Trump look good in this?
Is there any disputing that he refused, rejected testing kits, and the impact that has had most directly on American health and the economy?
Anything he could do that you wouldn't defend?
I'm pretty sure that for more than a few reasons, even more Americans will conclude that it's time for him to go. We can discuss those when you're more interested in the country than in Trump and his party.
Whenever you're ready.
I have a hs friend in that situation. She is looking for work as a paralegal.
You can give her good advice based on your extensive experience getting by in life as a para-person.
Well if Bolton really did disband the pandemictaskforce, the joke will be on him. Who is going to care about his book coming out when we're all trying to live through Coronavirus?
That was stupid, pee pee. Like everything else you write.
You've gotten quite boring.
I think it was funny.
Or at least as funny as someone such as yourself who credits her late-in-life career and romantic/marital success to the serial groper president, Trump.
;-)
Maybe you just don't know how funny you are. It counts even when unintentional, ya know.
One embarrassment I have thankfully never endured is having the Montana Urban Schmendrick taking my side. I feel your pain, Farmer, and you have my sympathies.
...you have my sympathies.
Aw. That's awfully big coming from someone as personally empty as you are.
Your business prospects must be looking awfully poor in this economic coda of Trump's for you to snip at me like that. I know that few things matter to you more than money, so you must be hurting really bad.
Oh well. At least you could cheerlead for the guy who screwed your operation over so massively, right? That must have felt good, at least while it lasted. To finally have someone to believe in more than you could yourself. Until... you couldn't.
What a shame.
"On treating the disease, Germany is a standout."
Not sure if they are or not, but they have 3000 more cases than the U.S., but we have more recoveries. That seems to indicate that we are doing it even better, or we are a supreme , if colorful, race.
Bago was nice to me when I informed him about the Icon A3. But that was a material bit of assistance, and regarding a status symbol at that, so his response was to be expected.
That's as deep as it gets for him.
How will SF keep the homeless home?
Schmedrick, as always, you know nothing. My business is doing fine, and we are not affected at all so far. Don't even have any absentees, and my employees are making lots of dough working as much overtime as they want . A slowdown would help us, becuase we have way too much work.
You sound mad, bro
Maybe baggies panties didn't experience the uptick in personal life goals attainment satisfaction as sexiled did with the Groper Trump presidency.
"Bago was nice to me"
Now that's going too far. We all make mistakes, but saying something like that is just cruel. If it did happen, it was purely accidental. I apologize to all decent people everywhere.
Next thing he'll be telling me his investment portfolio is very rosy, too.
"Under the order, San Francisco residents will still be allowed to take a walk, exercise or take a pet out to use the bathroom as long as people remain at least six-feet away from others who are not a member of their own household.
Essential government services including fire, police, transit and health care will also continue to operate.
Homeless people are not subject to the order, but are encouraged to seek shelter."
Now that's going too far. We all make mistakes, but saying something like that is just cruel. If it did happen, it was purely accidental. I apologize to all decent people everywhere.
That sounds like a very practiced line.
Heard your mom saying it a lot growing up while describing your conception and birth, did you?
"Next thing he'll be telling me his investment portfolio is very rosy, too."
Been buying more on every down day. Wish I had waited a little longer, but the ride back up is still gonna be exhilarating. It's guaranteed sooner or later, and I can wait.
Arnold's housekeeper was unavailable for comment.
I can wait.
And thanks to some dead guy whose place you took, so can your liver!
It's interesting to see bag lady bag twist himself up trying to convince people that Trump's ruination of the economy is part of some grand master plan.
It reminds me of those die-hard Third Reich "true believers" who thought the front-line retreats in 1943 - 44 were all going to work out just fine. We mere mortals just didn't appreciate the Fuehrer's brilliance and what he had in store next.
Yawn. Thread death imminent.
Farmer
I doubt you'll see this, but good for you.
To keep water, power and food going, millions have to work. The farmers have to plant. The truckers have to work. Gas stations. Grocery stores. And regular workers have to work or they won't have money for food. So this can't go on for months. And it won't. We'll get testing this week and then people will know where this flu is and get an idea of why it is so bad in some places like the Bergamo region and not in others like Milwaukee. And then know what to do. And we'll get a vaccine, I hope.
"n fairness in the United States the flu hits an estimated 20-45 million people each year. Given a population of 330 million, that translates to somewhere between 6 - 14%. So for this virus to hit 70% of people it would have to be quite a bit more contagious than the typical influenza virus. While it's certainly not impossible that it's that contagious, it seems unlikley and (so far) the current evidence doesn't seem to indicate that level of contagiousness. On the Diamond Princess (a relatively closed environment) you had a population of 3,711 passengers and crew. 696 people tested positive, which is around 19%."
19% of 327 million is 62 million. 62 million times a mortality rate of 1% is still 62k. It's still a bit early to know what this will end up like.
Mild to serious cases in the U.S. (and worldwide) continue to at least trend in a better direction. Five days ago it was 89/11. Today it's 94/6.
Why did coronavirus explode in Italy? The media probably won't mention this.
Known unknown
You are right about what’s unknown, but the 19% is after a pretty severe lockdown and a short time. My point is that we have to take seriously higher estimates. 70% is unlikely, but it’s not wildly unlikely. Considering 1918, it co7ld easily be a 1% chance of that. I think pytheas chances are higher than that by a lot, but let’s take 1%. That is still too big a risk to ignore, because it means 2.3 million dead and a destroyed medical system.
Wildswan
I agree. After 3 weeks, unless it’s a charnel house out there compliance will collapse. So I hope they have timed this right.
If you look on another thread I suggested an idea that might be more sustainable longer term. Pay people to quarantine. I won’t repeat the details. But even a 20% quarantine has a strong effect on the spread of the disease, and the scheme finds those most willing and able to self quarantine for a longer period.
"Yes. Even at 66. I've lived a good long life. If my shutting my active life away for the next 12 months means one innocent individual gets a shot at having even a tenth of what I've had, I'll do without hesitation not because I need to be the best person but because I just don't want to be one of the worst 66-72 year olds to ever live."
You don't know (my good, good friend, as it happens) science Sir, otherwise you would be worried about the 40 year olds now that you didn't "infect" that will die in three decades because you didn't inoculate them from ('the' or 'a' as you like) disease via a simple, friendly handshake. And you must simply hate children, whom you wish to prevent from immunizing themselves against a viral disease at the very future points when their immune systems will be weaker than current, as a given, but perhaps, and this is my point, most weak of all. But none dare call these slime.
Shaking the hand of someone who works diminishes your perceived self-worth, "what with them and their damn hands with the callus'" is the only reasonable conclusion reason allows the reasonable, given all we know, conclussory.
The zeal of the convert striking so loudly rich in tone seldom surprises, good Sir.
You are that French horn, Sir.
"This is definitely going to be rough, but it will be a lot less rough if we act aggressively right at the beginning."
A new beginning starts every nano-second. Ride the wave don't pretend you direct it. People "get what (they) put in, and people get what they deserve", per Kid Rock's "Only God Knows Why" which is why he kept on walking, with his head held high per Pac's wisdom.
GoC - Kid Rock is publicly pro-choice, has been for years, and has not repented.
God has given him much and he declines to share it with the least of us, will not even say a word when they are aborted.
Don't ever quote him again until he repents.
Prayut Chan-o-cha is a complete crazy person who relies on fortune tellers to make most government decisions
I don't believe in fortune telling, but don't see any problem with it if it brings comfort to people.
Known Unknown proposes: Why did coronavirus explode in Italy? The media probably won't mention this.
The outbreak and subsequent explosion was confined to northern Italy, Lombardy in particular, not in Tuscany.
rhhardin said...
"Trudeau has closed the Canadian border. A maple curtain has descended, says Mark Steyn."
Heh, right in the middle of sugaring season...don't worry. I know a guy in VT. I can hook you up.
3) The current shutdown is only about "flattening the curve" so the death toll will be minimized and not exaggerated due to an overloaded Health System.
For $800bn or whatever this latest bill kicking around... I bet you could run up a bunch of ventilators and a slew of hospitals and coronavirus wards pretty quickly. Plus all the drugs and serums as soon as available. Run up the numbers on qualified healthcare personnel somehow. Prepare to meet the curve head-on.
And afterwards, your investment has yielded some physical plant and training and employment benefits. Plus you didn't hobble the economy and society.
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