March 16, 2020

Tiny horses help Arnold Schwarzenegger show you how to stay home.

321 comments:

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Breezy said...

Foreheads?

Freeman Hunt said...

Delightful.

Tyrone Slothrop said...

You won't have any choice in the matter, Arnold. Governor Newsom has issued an executive order directing all Californians over 65 to stay inside whether they want to or not. It doesn't have the force of law, of course, but he has threatened to make it so if he doesn't get enough obedience. How are they going to get food, etc.? He hasn't figured that out yet. What a moron is our governor.

Bay Area Guy said...

Wow, the propaganda runs deep and wide.

1. Yes, if you have $300 Million in the bank like Arnie, Yes, please stay home with your horses.

2. Yes, if you have a nice pension, and don't have to work, Yes, please stay home and self-isolate.

3. Yes, if you're a government bureaucrat or white collar professional, who can work from your laptop, Yes, please say home.

The question is, what do blue collar workers or taxi drivers, or carpenters, or shipyard workers or shop owners or retail sales clerks or waitresses or, while I'm on a roll, strippers and bar-tenders supposed to do?




n.n said...

It's "social" distancing; but, yeah, physical isolation, in moderation, is prudent. Avoid urban jungles and other high-density Petri dishes.

Ken B said...

Good advice, if you can. Not everyone can. We should pay people to self quarantine. It reduces density and transmission rates.

n.n said...

It's risk mitigation, not avoidance. Life is an exercise in risk management.

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

Whatever you do, don't boink the help.

Bay Area Guy said...

@Tyrone Slothrop,

You won't have any choice in the matter, Arnold. Governor Newsom has issued an executive order directing all Californians over 65 to stay inside whether they want to or not. It doesn't have the force of law, of course, but he has threatened to make it so if he doesn't get enough obedience. How are they going to get food, etc.? He hasn't figured that out yet. What a moron is our governor.

Not a bad idea for older folks to stay home, not sure it should be force of law, thought.

But can you say overkill?

California Population: 39 Million
California deaths from Corona virus: 6

Well, to compare, in 2017, 6,300 Californians died of the Flu/pneumonia. And nobody freaked out.

Lucid-Ideas said...

Adorable, with one exception. Miniatures are notorious for also being mean, it's their 'small horse' syndrome and they have to make up in attitude what they lack in size.

Fernandistein said...

Said the guy with about 100 pounds of meat on the hoof.

Achilles said...

"Stay at home as much as possible. Listen to the experts, ignore the morons (foreheads). We will get through this together."


A stupid sheep bleats.

As soon as the temperature gets out of the 5-11c range and the virus doesn't persist in the environment this will pass.

And orders of magnitude more people will have died of the flu just like they do every year.

But I predict you sheep will not stop bleating.

They will find another way to control you.

It doesn't seem hard.

n.n said...

Whatever you do, don't boink the help.

To be fair, there is a logical progression from friends to employees with "benefits". ¡Viva la Sexual RevoluciĆ³n!

Amichel said...

I think one of those is a miniature donkey.

Char Char Binks said...

Stay home if you're coughing, sneezing, or even a little horse.

Lucid-Ideas said...

I love horse meat. It's more common fare in France (cheval) and also in central-Asia. It is very lean and has a strong rich flavor that is akin to beef but not quite, in other words you can tell it's not beef, and should be eaten fully cooked through not varying degrees of cooking like beef. It is also very good raw as horse tartar.

I had very interesting horse in Mongolia 6-7 years ago. Mongolian ponies are smaller than regular horses and they're much sturdier. The flesh reflects this in the flavor.

TJM said...

If he means, ignore the media (morons), then Arnold is correct.

The only thing you need to look at is the Johns Hopkins coronavirus dashboard. It is amazing that as of today, only 69 have died in the US, two-thirds of the victims live in the State of Washington. So we are doing something right in the US

Drago said...

Can you imagine the pressure the maid is under with Arnold at home 24/7?

PubliusFlavius said...

Exactly BayAreaOG

If I don't work I don't get paid, as professional musician there are no bailouts for me, and millions more will have it worse when they are forced to be unemployed essentially.

TheOne Who Is Not Obeyed said...

"The experts"? Like those that bungled the testing ramp up? The ones who didn't identify the virus when it invaded a long term care facility in the Pacific Northwest? The ones who keep causing girly men like Arnold to panic? The ones who are telling us to socially distance but keep pushing for personal quarantine behaviours instead? Those "experts"?

NYC JournoList said...

Some stats for BayAreaGuy:

Estimated number of U.S. soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines killed in battle during World War II: 292,000

Who perished outside of battle during World War II: 114,000
Wounded during World War II: 672,000
Deaths, in total, sustained by U.S. forces during World War II: 405,000
Deaths as a percent of the total United States population: 0.4%

https://www.shmoop.com/wwii/statistics.html

So a 1% mortality rate with 70% infected makes this nearly twice as bad as WWII.

NYC JournoList said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
tcrosse said...

Are the Althouse morning jaunts to Picnic Point suspended for the duration?

BUMBLE BEE said...

Millions will commit suicide over lost businesses, lost jobs and lost families. All for Cheap chinese knock offs!

rcocean said...

Good grief the Governor is not only "ordering" seniors to stay at home, anyone with diabetes, a weakened heart, or asthma should also "Isolate". Here's a work around - if stopped by a policeman tell 'em you're an illegal alien. They can't do nothing to you.

Its absolutely absurd to tell people over 65 "don't go to the grocery store or outside" We've had 50 deaths nation-wide.

Bob Loblaw said...

"We don't do anything around here anymore. We just eat..."

Funny he should say that. Yesterday I went to the local 7-11 and saw all the junk food is gone. According to the cashier, people are sitting at home, watching TV, and eating junk food.

Once the market stops dropping I'm going long on Jenny Craig and Lane Bryant.

Bob Boyd said...

I find this social distancing takes very little effort on my part. Being unpopular finally pays dividends for me!
My advice for living the pandemic lifestyle? If people like you, you're doing it wrong.

Bob Loblaw said...

You won't have any choice in the matter, Arnold. Governor Newsom has issued an executive order directing all Californians over 65 to stay inside whether they want to or not. It doesn't have the force of law, of course, but he has threatened to make it so if he doesn't get enough obedience. How are they going to get food, etc.? He hasn't figured that out yet. What a moron is our governor.

CA voters are getting less and less serious as time goes on. It's going to end badly.

rhhardin said...

Trudeau has closed the Canadian border. A maple curtain has descended, says Mark Steyn.

Sebastian said...

"So a 1% mortality rate with 70% infected makes this nearly twice as bad as WWII."

People, let's talk about QALYs, not "deaths."

Hypothetical example: let's say the virus mainly kills 50% of very sick seniors over 80 and 25% of very sick seniors over 70, and 10% of very sick almost-seniors over 60, then the number of QAYLys lost will be much smaller than the loss in WWII.

Of course, I am not saying it is therefore not serious, only that the usual yardstick is misleading in one respect.

It's not simply a nerdy debating point. It will become more important if and when the health system is overwhelmed, when triage will require comparative judgment involving some approximation of the QALY standard, as apparently has already happened in Italy.

In the broader scheme, as I have said before and will say again, prioritizing prevention of "deaths," without concern for costs to the non-dead and indirect health impacts, without taking into account expense per QALY saved, is inherently irrational.

Again, of course, I am not saying that therefore we should not try to prevent deaths, only that rational consideration of trade-offs, with uncertainties recognized, needs to get more attention. Again, it's no nerdy debating point. Scarcity will force our hand at some point--perhaps the point at which the population cannot stand a universal shutdown any longer and the costs of the economic implosion will seem to outweigh the benefits of saving ailing grandpa.

rcocean said...

Sensible precaution - Don't go to the movies, theaters, or stay long in a restaurant or a bar. Stay away from crowds except for limited times.

Hysteria - Don't go to the store. don't talk to anyone outside your home. Don't go for a walk (the virus will stalk and kill you). Buy 100 rolls of TP, stock up on bottled water. Arm yourself, someone may want your stash of TP. Buy vast quantities of Frozen and canned goods.

NorthOfTheOneOhOne said...

Bay Area Guy said...

The question is, what do blue collar workers or taxi drivers, or carpenters, or shipyard workers or shop owners or retail sales clerks or waitresses or, while I'm on a roll, strippers and bar-tenders supposed to do?

Don't forget those of us who are unemployed! How the hell am I supposed to find a job with this going on?

stlcdr said...

Apparently, we will get through this...separately.

BUMBLE BEE said...

Here's some experts for you... the CDC

https://www.frontpagemag.com/fpm/2020/03/cdc-was-fighting-racism-and-obesity-instead-daniel-greenfield/

Sebastian said...

"Its absolutely absurd to tell people over 65"

It isn't. At least, it is less absurd than telling very low-risk young people to put their lives on hold when a less costly alternative is available.

rcocean said...

In a desperate bid for attention, Romney is now proposing that we give every American $1000 because of the virus. That's $320 Billion.

Nonapod said...

NYC JournoList said...So a 1% mortality rate with 70% infected makes this nearly twice as bad as WWII.

In fairness in the United States the flu hits an estimated 20-45 million people each year. Given a population of 330 million, that translates to somewhere between 6 - 14%. So for this virus to hit 70% of people it would have to be quite a bit more contagious than the typical influenza virus. While it's certainly not impossible that it's that contagious, it seems unlikley and (so far) the current evidence doesn't seem to indicate that level of contagiousness. On the Diamond Princess (a relatively closed environment) you had a population of 3,711 passengers and crew. 696 people tested positive, which is around 19%.

Meade said...

"The question is, what do blue collar workers or taxi drivers, or carpenters, or shipyard workers or shop owners or retail sales clerks or waitresses or, while I'm on a roll, strippers and bar-tenders supposed to do?"

I'm working with a crew of carpenters as we speak. Instead of breaking contracts, we are all working together carefully, creatively, flexibly and cooperatively. They will earn their wages for at least today and tomorrow. Very high wages. We are redistributing our wealth and they are giving us great value. We are all protecting each other to the best of our abilities.

I'm also working on setting up a neighborhood distribution system to help keep our favorite artisan bakery afloat. I'll let you know how that goes.

That's just two examples I know of first hand.

BleachBit-and-Hammers said...

Romney - who has children in the same or simulacra line of work as Pelvisi+ Biden kids. International money grubbing via insider connections.

narciso said...

what does Robert Patrick, the other terminator say, what a girly man he turned out to be,

Curious George said...

"Ken B said...
Good advice, if you can. Not everyone can. We should pay people to self quarantine. It reduces density and transmission rates."

This is very stupid. So very stupid.


"Char Char Binks said...
Stay home if you're coughing, sneezing, or even a little horse."

This is very funny. So very funny.

rcocean said...

No flu epidemic in the USA has ever gotten over the 20% mark. Every year about 10% of the population gets the flu. There's nothing in the Wuhan Flu which indicates its easier to spread then other flues.

As stated before, this is all about flattening the curve, to help out the medical system. Its not about reducing the total number of people who will Ultimately get infected.

rcocean said...

I feel sorry for all the 12,000 people who died last year of the flu. Guess they weren't important.

Meade said...

Bob Boyd said...
"I find this social distancing takes very little effort on my part. Being unpopular finally pays dividends for me!
My advice for living the pandemic lifestyle? If people like you, you're doing it wrong."

Works for me!

rcocean said...

"I'm also working on setting up a neighborhood distribution system to help keep our favorite artisan bakery afloat. I'll let you know how that goes."

Wow, Meade's a positive influence. Who knew?

rcocean said...

Everything has an upside. All those people you didn't like, all those parties that bored you. Now you can not be around them - and be guilt free.

Meade said...

Char Char Binks said...
Stay home if you're coughing, sneezing, or even a little horse.

"This is very funny. So very funny."
---------------------------

Love it.

Ken B said...

I just watched Trudeau’s press conference. Closing the border except to Canadians and US citizens.
I thought he was fine. By JAC's standards, as applied to Trump, he was lying. He did not mention that passengers in transit would be allowed, a minister clarified that. He made other small omissions which, likeTrump's, were unimportant to mention to get the main point across.
He said returning Canadians must self isolate. He said must, but later clarified it was voluntary and there was no enforcement. Another lie under the JAC standard, but again I think what he said was fine.

I am one of the Prime Minstrel's critics. He is an embarrassment to Canada and generally feckless. But he was fine today. I just want to emphasize the double standard for JAC, as some here still respect him.

rcocean said...

OK - I'm going out for lunch. If I don't make it back, tell my wife I loved her. Even more than my mistress.

Bay Area Guy said...

@Meade,

"I'm working with a crew of carpenters as we speak. Instead of breaking contracts, we are all working together carefully, creatively, flexibly and cooperatively. They will earn their wages for at least today and tomorrow. Very high wages. We are redistributing our wealth and they are giving us great value. We are all protecting each other to the best of our abilities."

Awesome, Meade. But, let's not be naive. If this freak-out continues several months, or a year (God Forbid), many of those good folks are gonna be outta work. Multiply that across the country.

I'm also working on setting up a neighborhood distribution system to help keep our favorite artisan bakery afloat. I'll let you know how that goes.

Awesome, you're the best. But see above. If this continues meaning the irrational, over-reaching, authortitative reaction to a flu bug that has killed precisely ZERO people in Wisconsin, the nice artisan bakery along with many small businesses will be bye-bye.

Meade said...

"I feel sorry for all the 12,000 people who died last year of the flu."

Good. We should. And then we should all do what we can to reduce the number of people who could die of the flu today and tomorrow. DON'T BE A SPREADER.

narciso said...

has he stopped the flights from china

SGT Ted said...

One of those is a miniature donkey and they are sweet as the dickens.

Nonapod said...

I just watched Trudeau’s press conference. Closing the border except to Canadians and US citizens.

I wonder about those 4 flights from China to Vancover later today.

Dave Begley said...

1. Arnold is worth more than $100m.

2. Do the tiny horses poop tiny horse poop in his house?

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Governor Newsom has issued an executive order directing all Californians over 65 to stay inside whether they want to or not. It doesn't have the force of law, of course, but he has threatened to make it so if he doesn't get enough obedience.

LOL. What a maroon. Who is going to arrest me for going to the grocery store. The PO to get my mail. Make an ATM deposit at the bank. Get gas in my car. Who is going to stop me? Who is even going to complain? If they do...I know who you are (very little town)

We don't even have a police or sheriff substation within 50 miles of us. If you are calling 911 wait 30 minutes to an hour for anyone to show up. Fat f*cking chance of them sending someone to arrest or even cite you for buying oranges.

Does he realize how many people 65 and over are working in everyday jobs that HE, himself, depends on.

Hell, there would be no doctors in our local hospital because the 3 doctors that we do have are all over 65. Nurses, housekeeping. The place would be almost deserted.

Of course, if you are actually sick. Stay home.


Ken B said...

Curious George
Why is it stupid? Evidence or argument please.
I think you just don’t understand market arguments. Markets work.

Meade said...

"Awesome, you're the best."

I wish I were. I'm actually pretty bad. But I'm trying not to be the worst.

Anthony said...

Except for the corporate and government dopiness, people here in AZ seem to be functioning normally. We went to a Culver's yesterday (Sunday) and it was packed with old folks.

I'm 57 and never thought I'd actually live to see true mass hysteria but here we are.

Yancey Ward said...

Sorry, RC, I thought the proposal was $10,000.

Yancey Ward said...

I wrote a comment a couple of nights ago about why the old people won't obey- they simply have less life left. Would you will be willing to shut your active life away for 6-12 months if you were 72 years old? The relative costs of lockdown go up with age.

Meade said...

"Do the tiny horses poop tiny horse poop in his house?"

They do. They make a huge tiny pile of tiny pony manure. When Arnold's brother, the pessimist, comes downstairs in the morning, he'll sees it and say, "aw poop. I guess we have another chore." But Arnold, the optimist, sees it and says, "Hey! Ponies!"

Nonapod said...

It's a scientific fact that miniature versions of things are an order of magnitude cuter than full sized. If you doubt me just watch this video of a guy being chased by a mini horse foal.

Curious George said...

"Ken B said...
Curious George
Why is it stupid? Evidence or argument please.
I think you just don’t understand market arguments. Markets work."

This is even dumber. First, who is the "we?" Not a "market." It's the government. And it would be impossible to manage and implement.

Dave Begley said...


Who the hell cares about the Rule of Law after CA's sanctuary city policy? Or can I go out and steal $1000 worth of stuff and not get arrested? CA has degraded the meaning of law enforcement with its policies. Why should we do what they say now? Screw'em.

Yancey Ward said...

One conclusion I have made about Coronavirus in the US- the people dying of the disease are dying at home- it is the only way to explain why the serious/critical has remained in the 10-12 range for 2 weeks now. I imagine this is what is happening in Italy- the people dying are dying at home and were already near death for a host of reasons. Just to give an example that is personal to myself- my father's best friend died a couple of week ago from pneumonia, but he was already in hospice care because he had battled pneumonia for the last 6 months due to slowly losing a battle with lymphoma at 86 years of age. It may simply be the case that COVID-19 is just the final straw for the terminally ill, and they and their families know it.

Meade said...

"Would you will be willing to shut your active life away for 6-12 months if you were 72 years old?"

Yes. Even at 66. I've lived a good long life. If my shutting my active life away for the next 12 months means one innocent individual gets a shot at having even a tenth of what I've had, I'll do without hesitation not because I need to be the best person but because I just don't want to be one of the worst 66-72 year olds to ever live.

Dust Bunny Queen said...

Governor Newsom has issued an executive order directing all Californians over 65 to stay inside whether they want to or not

Does this include Aunt Nancy (Pelosi). Better not come home Nancy. Your nephew has you under house arrest. Maybe most of those dopes in our California Legislature can be forced to stay home too. That would actually be a good thing.

I can see it now;

911: "911. What is your emergency?"

Breathless busybody: "There is someone in the grocery store over 65 buying milk, eggs and bread!!! Come quick we are all gonna die.!!!!"

911: "Oh for fucks sake"

Yancey Ward said...

"It's a scientific fact that miniature versions of things are an order of magnitude cuter than full sized. If you doubt me just watch this video of a guy being chased by a mini horse foal."

I still remember the scene in the 2nd Jurassic Park movie where the guy gets eaten by a swarm of tiny dinosaurs.

mockturtle said...

Are these measures really necessary? Or is it all just a global plot to impose martial law, one city/county/state at a time? I'm ambivalent. You all realize that, at the first sign of 'civil unrest' there will be talk of [and more than talk] gun confiscation. But at the same time I understand the need to control the rate of infection.

Freeman Hunt said...

"They will find another way to control you."

Some of us formed our opinions before it was even a story here.

The media was fun to watch. Not paying attention. Not paying attention. "Everyone talking about a Chinese flu is racist!!!" Then within the space of about two hours they switched in unison to, "This could get Trump! Stick it to Trump!"

Trump stumbled off the block, but he doesn't seem to be doing worse than European countries. (What the hell, Britain? Your plan isn't even a plan.) Plus, the Dems only offer up lunatic governance ideas these days, "End oil, pay other people's student loans, and kill babies right up to birth!" So we don't have alternatives.

Meanwhile math and watching outcomes in other countries says, "Stay home if at all possible."

You can ignore media if you look at data, and the data says, "If you don't want your people to go gentle into that good night, stay in your house." Oddly it's the being gentle, if isolating is gentle, that prevents the going gently. The gentle of pretending nothing is happening leads steadily into night.

mockturtle said...

Rcocean requests: OK - I'm going out for lunch. If I don't make it back, tell my wife I loved her. Even more than my mistress.

So, who will tell your mistress? Or is she 'lunch'?

Yancey Ward said...

Yeah, ....Rc......lunch.

narciso said...

'its 12% of a plan' meanwhile on Westworld,

mockturtle said...

Rcocean claims: We've had 50 deaths nation-wide.

Actually, 73 but who's counting? ;-D

Curious George said...

Meade, let's face it, you want your deck, the workers want your money. I bet you and Althouse have laid down rules about them entering a living space. That's the cooperation. They aren't really worried, other than not being able to work. And in two days they are off to the next job, and they may be okay for a while. But not for ever or even long. Not everyone is a state or UW worker, or a pensioner, with a lot of bank. And at some point, we the people or going to start demanding furloughs.

As far as your bakery, are they still open? If yes, there is a distribution system already. It's called Door Dash. Or Uber eats. My son owns a brew pub in Milwaukee, and they closed, but are still doing carry out. And selling gift cards. He hopes it will be enough.

narciso said...

in other news

bagoh20 said...

"So a 1% mortality rate with 70% infected makes this nearly twice as bad as WWII."

Even in China the infection rate is less than 7%. 70% infection rate is impossible and has probably never happened with any such disease ever, even before modern medicine, and flu type viruses are on the low end of contagiousness.

Curious George said...

"Meade said...
Yes. Even at 66. I've lived a good long life. If my shutting my active life away for the next 12 months means one innocent individual gets a shot at having even a tenth of what I've had, I'll do without hesitation not because I need to be the best person but because I just don't want to be one of the worst 66-72 year olds to ever live."

And when this crisis leads to thousands of deaths because of the economical impact, you ready to own those?

Curious George said...

"Freeman Hunt said...
Trump stumbled off the block, but he doesn't seem to be doing worse than European countries. (What the hell, Britain? Your plan isn't even a plan.)"

That's not true at all. It is a plan, and might be the best plan. Some one posted a link to the presser they had rolling it out.

bagoh20 said...

"Yes. Even at 66. I've lived a good long life. If my shutting my active life away for the next 12 months means one innocent individual gets a shot at having even a tenth of what I've had,..."

Then you must do that, and forever, becuase there is always a chance that you leaving the house will cost someone their life, especially if you will be driving. Doing nothing is a high standard.

J. Farmer said...

@mockturtle:

Are these measures really necessary? Or is it all just a global plot to impose martial law, one city/county/state at a time? I'm ambivalent. You all realize that, at the first sign of 'civil unrest' there will be talk of [and more than talk] gun confiscation. But at the same time I understand the need to control the rate of infection.

Ambivalent? Who is coordinating this "global pot?" To what end? Martial law refers to military control of civilian affairs. Where has that occurred?

J. Farmer said...

Back in the early 80s, a lot of gay activists thought that the move to close bath houses was driven by nothing more than hostility towards gays. They were wrong. And paid dearly for it.

Todd said...

Do they have tiny horse shoes for the tiny horses or do they go unshod? Who makes the tiny shoes (if they have them), tiny blacksmiths? Would watching a tiny blacksmith make tiny horse shoes be just as cute as watching tiny horses?

J. Farmer said...

@Anthony:

Except for the corporate and government dopiness, people here in AZ seem to be functioning normally. We went to a Culver's yesterday (Sunday) and it was packed with old folks.

That people make statements like this as a badge of honor is sad.

I'm 57 and never thought I'd actually live to see true mass hysteria but here we are.

In your 57 years, when do you last recall seeing a headline like this: "Short-staffed and undersupplied: Coronavirus crisis strains Seattle area’s capacity to deliver care"

mockturtle said...

Even in China the infection rate is less than 7%.

But I'm sure it's much higher in Hubei Province.

MayBee said...

Here are some, J. Farmer: https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=shortage+of+bed+in+flu+epidemic+-corona&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

NYC JournoList said...

bagoh20

The worst case scenario according to CDC is 50-70% infection rate. No time frame, so that may be over a number of years (as was WWII). My point is that people way underestimate just how bad a 1% death rate really is. And no, if we a smart about things the number infected should peak well below 50%. If everyone keeps partying and throws caution to the wind we may be surprised.

To answer your musing the black death likely infected roughly 70% of the European population. Small pox likely killed off a like number of aboriginal Americans. So infections can become that widespread.

This will not be on that scale, but the danger is more meaningful than some here have gotten their heads around. Certainly there is no reason to be cavalier despite the certainty that civilization will continue.

“The study of contemporary archives suggests a mortality varying in the different regions between one-eighth and two-thirds of the population, and the French chronicler Jean Froissart’s statement that about one-third of Europe’s population died in the epidemic may be fairly accurate.”

https://www.britannica.com/event/Black-Death

NYC JournoList said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
mockturtle said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
J. Farmer said...

@MayBee:

Here are some, J. Farmer: https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=shortage+of+bed+in+flu+epidemic+-corona&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

Those are articles about could happen under various scenarios. The headline I listed is about what is happening right now.

MayBee said...

Here's one from 1008:


Influenza Flu - Possible Pandemic - Shortage of Ventilators ...www.nytimes.com › 2008/03/25 › health

Mar 25, 2008 - But in an epidemic, there could be a severe shortage of machines ... The project began in response to outbreaks of bird or avian flu, H5N1 ... intensive care beds, he said, and in a pandemic the problem would be far, far worse.

MayBee said...

2008

mockturtle said...

The overall death rate in China among those infected is almost 4%.

MayBee said...

Ahh, but you are really concerned about what *could* be in the rest of the US, right?

Curious George said...

"MayBee said...
Here are some, J. Farmer: https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=shortage+of+bed+in+flu+epidemic+-corona&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8"

MayBee BOOM HEADSHOT!

MayBee said...

And here is one of the links, followed, J Farmer:

In December 1997, television and newspaper media reported that high numbers of patients seeking treatment for respiratory illnesses had overwhelmed the capacity of emergency departments and outpatient facilities in Los Angeles County (LAC). The situation was described as a looming health-care disaster (1) and the worst influenza epidemic in the previous 2 decades (2,3).

mockturtle said...

And the death rate in Italy is now 7.7%.

MayBee said...

Here's another, which is a PDF, but says the 199-2000 flu season caused a coast-to-coast shortage of acute patient beds, causing ambulance service diversions and long delays in emergency rooms

Freeman Hunt said...

Look at other countries. This is not theoretical. You can see what has happened and is happening in places that got it first.

Also, if your healthcare system is overwhelmed, your death rate climbs for all causes of death. So if you don't isolate, you can't count on a low (relative to other possibilities) death rate.

narciso said...

idris elba and olga kurylenko seem to have caught it,

Ron Winkleheimer said...

They do. They make a huge tiny pile of tiny pony manure.

Man, being Arnold's housekeeper was hard enough already.

bagoh20 said...

People with the means to put their lives on hold flaunting that, while others have incredibly hard choices to make is pretty myopic, out of touch, and kinda gross. You all should just stop it.

Some people have real fears, becuase they don't really have a choice. They will be hurt badly either way they go. If you have a choice that makes you safe without damaging you or your family, then good for you, but some people are not so beautiful, and don't appreciate your selfies.

mockturtle said...

J Farmer remembers: Back in the early 80s, a lot of gay activists thought that the move to close bath houses was driven by nothing more than hostility towards gays. They were wrong. And paid dearly for it.

Yes, as Randy Shilts' excellent book, And the Band Played On documented and we saw how both the CDC and the NIH played politics [not partisan politics but interagency politics] with the epidemic. Again, kudos to Dr. Fauci for taking the bold steps necessary in that situation and I think also in this one.

MayBee said...

This is one of the links from 2018:
unami of sick people has swamped hospitals in many parts of the country in recent weeks as a severe flu season has taken hold. In Rhode Island, hospitals diverted ambulances for a period because they were overcome with patients. In San Diego, a hospital erected a tent outside its emergency room to manage an influx of people with flu symptoms.

Freeman Hunt said...

"People with the means to put their lives on hold flaunting that, while others have incredibly hard choices to make is pretty myopic, out of touch, and kinda gross. You all should just stop it."

If everyone who can stay home does stay home, that helps the people who can't stay home by decreasing the density. Another reason why everyone who can stay home should.

NYC JournoList said...

Yes bagoh20, this sucks. Bad choices, worse choices and terrible choices are the theme of the day.

MayBee said...

bagoh20 said...
People with the means to put their lives on hold flaunting that, while others have incredibly hard choices to make is pretty myopic, out of touch, and kinda gross. You all should just stop it.


Yes!
Some people have to work- and we expect them to work, right? We say there is going to be food in the grocery stores- well it in't going to just make itself, deliver itself, stock itself, and sell itself.

To me, I hear a lot of "people like me should self-isolate". You other people who *I* need to make my life work, keep working. But if you need money to keep your own life together and it doesn't really serve me, you should be ashamed that you aren't willing to sacrifice.

MayBee said...

Freeman- I see this as about who gets to define who *can* stay at home. And what *can* stay at home actually means.

J. Farmer said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Freeman Hunt said...

The individual gets to decide unless people are too careless, it begins to spread like crazy, and we end up in a government-enforced quarantine. In that case, it should be the responsibility of taxpayers to provide relief to those who need it.

It's like going to war. It's going to cost money.

J. Farmer said...

@MayBee:

That is from the introduction of a paper titled "Medical Care Capacity for Influenza Outbreaks, Los Angeles" in Emerging Infection Diseases. You can read the full paper here.

"Overwhelmed" was a term used once in that paper, and it cited two sources. One was an LA Times story from 1998 by Shari Roan titled "Flu May Catch (achoo!)." The other was another LA Times article titled "Valley hospitals packed due to rash of illnesses." Nowhere else is the term "overwhelmed" use. In fact, the paper's own abstract reads, "In December 1997, media reported hospital overcrowding..." and the word "overcrowding" is used in the remainder of the body of the paper.

BUMBLE BEE said...

A caller to the Prager show started in on statistics of survival from one year post hospitalization for the more recent "viral pandemics". Unfortunately she got cut off due to end of show. Any takers out there for accessing this data? narciso?? Michael K?? Bueller? Bueller?

mockturtle said...

Farmer asks [of me]: Martial law refers to military control of civilian affairs.

Mayor Deborah Frank Feinen signs an executive order:
Among the powers Feinen gained after signing the executive order was the power to ban the sale of guns, ammunition, alcohol, and gasoline. Feinen could also cut off access to individuals' gas, water, or electricity. The city also has the ability to "take possession of private property" or order the temporary closing of all bars or liquor stores.

I could recite several more cases as I'm sure you would demand them but I won't. Remember: Never let a crisis go to waste. But, again, I have from the onset of this epidemic--> pandemic taken it very seriously. Just saying there is a danger of some taking advantage of the situation to impose restrictive law. Do you deny that, in the event of civil unrest there would be gun confiscation [or at least attempted gun confiscation]?

bagoh20 said...

The Bubonic Plague is not applicable here. It is not spread human to human. People's behavior had little direct effect on the spread, and they had no idea what to do about it, no treatment, and no preventatives of any kind.

Bob Boyd said...

This is very funny.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gctR1Jcs3iw

BUMBLE BEE said...

Indeed, Freeman, war, the Chinese have dealt us a crippling blow. Moat battleships have been sunk in the harbor.

J. Farmer said...

Yes, that quote was from the article "A severe flu season is stretching hospitals thin. That is a very bad omen." Here are some other quotes from, in case you didn't read beyond the first paragraph:

1) "Pandemic influenza lost its big, bad bogeyman status. And in the years since, budgets for preparedness work have suffered."

2) Hospital and public health preparedness programs have sustained cuts in the order of about 30 percent in recent years, said Dr. Oscar Alleyne, a senior adviser with the National Association of County and City Health Officials, adding: “The level of funding is a concern to us.”

3) That has helped institutions respond to contained events — incidents like the Boston Marathon bombing or last year’s Las Vegas shooting, Inglesby noted. “But when you start scaling up beyond that and you introduce the variable of contagious disease, hospitals are pretty brittle,” he warned.

4) But with flu, most of the severe illness happens in the space of a few weeks in any one location. The pressure that puts on a health system is exacerbated by the fact that some of the people needed to care for the sick fall ill themselves.

5) Osterholm noted that in the time since the 2009 pandemic, health care systems have been operating on ever-tighter margins, leaving them pressed to respond even to what are ordinary system stressors.

6) If anyone knew for sure that the next pandemic was coming soon, then society would begin planning aggressively, Inglesby said. “But since we have uncertainty about the timing and severity of the next pandemic, we’re kind of in this relatively modest national effort to prepare hospitals, which is doing what it can with the resources available.”


And remember, it's not as if Covid-19 is a replacement to the flu. It's additive. So take all the concerns voiced above and add another pandemic on top of that one.

MayBee said...

J Farmer: You got me. It says overcrowded and not the word used in your never before seen headline: "strains"

J. Farmer said...

@mockturtle:

Do you deny that, in the event of civil unrest there would be gun confiscation [or at least attempted gun confiscation]?

Is it possible? Sure. Is it something that as a gun owner myself I am worried about right now?No. Do I think this was all cooked up in order to seize my guns? No.

Nonetheless, however advisable or inadvisable it is, nothing that you described is "martial law." It was an executive order signed by an elected mayor. What does the military have to do with that?

bagoh20 said...

I just think we should avoid exaggerating either the danger or the safety. Don't look for the worst or best possible examples to scare or relax people . China and Italy are the worst examples. It won't be worse here than there, and it almost certainly will be far better.

Humans are so easily panicked. People should realize that is at least as dangerous as the virus, and it spreads faster.

BUMBLE BEE said...

Bob.. THANKS!

J. Farmer said...

@mockturtle:

Do you deny that, in the event of civil unrest there would be gun confiscation [or at least attempted gun confiscation]?

Is it possible? Sure. Is it something that as a gun owner myself I am worried about right now?No. Do I think this was all cooked up in order to seize my guns? No.

Nonetheless, however advisable or inadvisable it is, nothing that you described is "martial law." It was an executive order signed by an elected mayor. What does the military have to do with that?

MayBee said...

J Farmer- as I understand it, you were using that headline as an example of how bad things are right now in the US. You asked if ever he had seen a headline such as that. And the answer is yes. We know how those turned out, of course. They weren't' the worst ever. But at the time people were very frightened, and hospitals in some parts of the country were very overwhelmed.

That isn't to say COVID isn't very very bad, with the possibility that it will be the worst ever. But we have had the possibility of the worst ever before, and those are just some examples of it. This isn't the first pandemic panic we've had in all my years. And if this turns out to be like the others, we will forget we were ever really truly afraid of it, like we have done with the others.

J. Farmer said...

@bagoh20:

It won't be worse here than there, and it almost certainly will be far better.

Humans are so easily panicked. People should realize that is at least as dangerous as the virus, and it spreads faster.


It doesn't have to be worse. Being just as bad is bad enough. And it's the very measures we ar taking to not look like China or Italy that you are calling "panicked." How exactly do you expect the spread of the virus to be contained?

Dust Bunny Queen said...

If everyone who can stay home does stay home, that helps the people who can't stay home by decreasing the density. Another reason why everyone who can stay home should

CAN being the operative word. CAN

We can stay home for an extended period of time with out running out of food or supplies. Because of where we live and how we live. This is normal. 3 months easy peasy. Probably 6 months. Maybe a year.

CAN we stay home financially that long. Probably not. We have a business and obligations. Many people are already living pay check to pay check. Never mind having food in the house. If people who are forced to stay home (even if they are not sick) can't pay for their heat, water, mortgage, utilities, loan payments, rent, medications, HEALTH INSURANCE....who is going to do that for them?

People who lose their jobs because of forced closures by the government, because they are 65 years old, and by the natural course of businesses closing or going BK....are you going to pony up some extra money for them?

You Freeman. You Meade. Anyone?

I know... they didn't plan ahead. Dumbshits! Let them eat cake. Better yet...give them a stern lecture while you are at it.

People with the means to put their lives on hold flaunting that, while others have incredibly hard choices to make is pretty myopic, out of touch, and kinda gross. You all should just stop it.

Freeman Hunt said...

"China and Italy are the worst examples. It won't be worse here than there, and it almost certainly will be far better."

This is wholly dependent on our actions now. We get to choose.

Freeman Hunt said...

DBQ, it's as though you didn't read my comments.

MayBee said...

This is wholly dependent on our actions now. We get to choose.

Is it, though?

Why is it always China and Italy?

J. Farmer said...

@MayBee:

This isn't the first pandemic panic we've had in all my years. And if this turns out to be like the others, we will forget we were ever really truly afraid of it, like we have done with the others.

Time will tell. The president himself is advocating social distancing. His task force is advocating social distancing. The countries that have had the most success in containing the disease, South Korea and Singaore, advocated social distancing. And yet, when we tell people they should practice social distancing, it seems to be a certain subset whose automatic reply is, "why are you panicking?"

LordSomber said...

Man, being Arnold's housekeeper was hard enough already.

"Come with me if you want to live."

J. Farmer said...

Why is it always China and Italy?

China because that's where the pandemic spread, and Italy because it's a member of the OECD and a relatively wealthy first-world country. And before any jokes about Italy, recall that it has a north-south orientation with most of the poverty, corruption, and third-worldism confied to southern Italy. Lombardy is one of the richest regions of the country.

MayBee said...

And yet, when we tell people they should practice social distancing, it seems to be a certain subset whose automatic reply is, "why are you panicking?"

The governor of my state last week shut down all schools. Today, she shut down all gyms, yoga studios, restaurants, bars, and public gatherings. Restaurants can stay open if they deliver food.
She told them this morning, and the shut downs had to happen by 3pm.

Is that simple social distancing? Because nobody knows how long these will go on, and not all of these businesses will make it through. And most of the employees are not sitting around with their feet on a pile of money lighting up $100 bills and adjusting their monocles.
I think it should be more than ok to question these policies.

GingerBeer said...

I'd find it easier to take Arnold seriously if he had two Golden Retrievers.

MayBee said...

China because that's where the pandemic spread, and Italy because it's a member of the OECD and a relatively wealthy first-world country. And before any jokes about Italy, recall that it has a north-south orientation with most of the poverty, corruption, and third-worldism confied to southern Italy. Lombardy is one of the richest regions of the country.

Right, but Italy isn't he only member o the OECD and relatively wealthy first world country. Why aren't we 10 days behind, say, Finland?

mockturtle said...

It was an executive order signed by an elected mayor. What does the military have to do with that?

If you read the fine print in any of these orders you will see that the local police will be the first enforcers, then the National Guard and then the US Military. There are even provisions for using foreign military aid if necessary. Now, I'm not saying that is the case here, but I'm one of those 'slippery slope' believers. Or the 'camel's nose under the tent'. Whichever metaphor you prefer. ;-)

Ficta said...

"Lombardy is one of the richest regions of the country."

Also one of the coldest.

MayBee said...

Here are the two worst case scenarios and we are for sure 10 days behind them.

Maybe! Maybe not.

Yancey Ward said...

An important low got taken out at the close today in the S&P500. Next stop might be the low from August 2015.

There are cries to close the stock markets- that would be a terrible mistake- if you want to see real panic, do that.

Michael K said...

And yet, when we tell people they should practice social distancing, it seems to be a certain subset whose automatic reply is, "why are you panicking?"

And yet, when I went to the market this morning, a lot of people were using gloves or carrying handiwipes. There seems to be a real behavior change. Tucson has no cases so far and AZ has only about 8 to 10.

Seems like a pretty good response to me. The paper goods shelves were still empty but that may settle down.

MayBee said...

mockturtley:

Now, I'm not saying that is the case here, but I'm one of those 'slippery slope' believers. Or the 'camel's nose under the tent'.

Considering the FISA court was used against a campaign for US PResident, I think slippery slopes are a thing to worry about. I mean, that was about terrorism. To keep us safe!

Freeman Hunt said...

"Why aren't we 10 days behind, say, Finland?"

Because our current numbers are roughly tracking Italy's.

Bob Boyd said...

I heard ISIS was advising it's terrorists not to travel to Europe.

J. Farmer said...

@Ficta:

Also one of the coldest.

In January and February, the highs are usually in the 40s and lows in 30s. Not unheard of weather here.

Freeman Hunt said...

"Because nobody knows how long these will go on, and not all of these businesses will make it through. And most of the employees are not sitting around with their feet on a pile of money lighting up $100 bills and adjusting their monocles."

Yes, this is killer. I'm trying to help the people I know whose businesses can go virtual, like tutors, make the temporary transition to online services. People are being encouraged to send personal service workers, like maids, home while still paying them. Restaurants all seem to be transitioning to pickup and delivery. The SBA has opened up a new program for businesses affected by the pandemic. This is definitely going to be rough, but it will be a lot less rough if we act aggressively right at the beginning. The countries that took fast action to get it under control are open for business. The countries that didn't are the ones in total lockdown.

Bay Area Guy said...

"Because our current numbers are roughly tracking Italy's."

Really? What numbers are those?

US Population: 330 Million
Coronavirus deaths: 73 deaths


Italy Population: 60 Million
Coronavirus deaths: 2,100

Both numbers -- the ones that matter - are very, very, very low.

MayBee said...


Because our current numbers are roughly tracking Italy's.


Adjusted for population? Do we have the same number of deaths? Are there dead sisters in the beds who the coroner won't pick up?

Lurker21 said...

Covid19 Haiku

Arnold locked in
At home with tiny horses.
Next year: Tiny centaurs.

Freeman Hunt said...

It's the growth rate. We are behind them but growing at a similar rate. The idea is that we may still have time to slow ours before we end up with their outcome.

The growth is exponential not linear.

narciso said...

at a 5/1 ratio, that would be 10,500 dead,

MayBee said...

Did Italy get it sooner than the US? Or did it just get bad there sooner than here?

exhelodrvr1 said...

What are the common threads between Iran, China, Italy, and South Korea?

Bay Area Guy said...

Maybe it's time for Althouse or Meade to do a poll, perhaps simple and binary.

Do you belong to Group 1 or Group 2?

Group 1: The new Coronavirus is a major health risk, to which the response (close down schools, sports, work, restaurants) is appropriate.

Group 2: The new Coronavirus is more akin to the yearly flu, to which the response (close down schools, sports, work, restaurants) is not appropriate.

Achilles said...

J. Farmer said...
"@Anthony:

Except for the corporate and government dopiness, people here in AZ seem to be functioning normally. We went to a Culver's yesterday (Sunday) and it was packed with old folks."

That people make statements like this as a badge of honor is sad.

What is even worse is a bunch of bleating sheep freaking out over something that is killing less than a 10th of the number of people the flu is killing right now.

"I'm 57 and never thought I'd actually live to see true mass hysteria but here we are."

In your 57 years, when do you last recall seeing a headline like this: "Short-staffed and undersupplied: Coronavirus crisis strains Seattle area’s capacity to deliver care"

How is this worse that swine flu which killed over 100 times as many people and infected millions?

Oh I know how it is worse. Trump is president now and Obama was then.

And the sheep hate it when they realize they are tricked.

Ken B said...

Curious George
I knew you knew nothing. It’s easy to implement. Auctions through a website, and monitored via cell phones. More monitoring isn’t hard either. You'd get good compliance I think. I say I think because I am not sure but at least I understand the proposal. You don’t understand but you are sure. You don’t think, you know!

We might need “social distancing” for a long time. That is easier if a lot of people self quarantine. Say 20% or 30% of the population for 4 months. How do you decide which 20%? You can get that by either bureaucrats deciding, or a market deciding. There will be a market of those willing to stay home at modest cost. The government hires them. They bid through a website. I will stay home for 200 a day, you will stay for 45 a day, you get the bid. No different in principle from hiring street sweepers or crossing guards. Low bidders win. If you think it through — you don’t think, you know! — you will see that this lowers total cost over a random or bureaucratic quarantine.

MayBee said...

Bay Area Guy:

I'm in Group 3: The new Coronavirus may well be worse than the yearly flu, but it has every Politician itching to be the one who does the most to keep scared people safe, and we must assume its appropriate

Yancey Ward said...

Italy vs the U.S.:

The first cases were identified in the US before Italy, by a couple of days, so we aren't "behind" them on that metric. What we are behind on, though, is testing, at least we were on March 10th.

Now, as some of you remember, I don't really put much faith in reported cases- I think this virus has been in Italy and the US since last Fall, and we are only now testing for it and testing the people who die of respiratory failure- had we been testing since, let's say, last November, we likely would have seen the same graphs in the US, then. In essence, you are seeing graphs generated by our beginning looking for something that had previously gone unnoticed- we don't know the true state of how many have been infected, how many are infected at this moment, and how many have actually died from this disease since it landed here. For all we know at this moment, the deaths in the US from COVID-19 could already be well over 1000, it is just that we only started testing people who died just two weeks ago.

Same applies to Italy- their deaths might actually be over 5000 at this point. At some point, someone will eventually look at all respiratory failure deaths going back at least to last Fall, and I think a lot of those deaths will be reclassified as COVID-19 deaths.

narciso said...

Italy is in the middle of the three months cycle, china is at the end, the us is starting in the first month

JPS said...

MayBee,

"Did Italy get it sooner than the US? Or did it just get bad there sooner than here?"

We had our first confirmed cases at nearly the same time. We both puttered along with very few cases for over a month. But Italy's rapid acceleration occurred first, for various reasons.

As an American watching from Italy and hoping very much it doesn't get too bad back in the U.S., you all seem to be where we were here about 17 days ago, as far as societal disruption. I don't think the death rate will be 6-7%, as the raw number persists here.

I will note that a number of Italian doctors (including one close to my family) are saying that if they'd recognized what needed to be done, and done it right away, they themselves would have thought it an overreaction.

Bay Area Guy said...

And a few more numbers, if nobody minds.

US Population 330 Million/73 deaths.

Of those 73 US deaths, 42 are in Washington State, and 27 of these are from 1 fucking nursing home in Washington. Source: John Hopkins

In other words, 57% of this deadly epidemic in the US comes from Washington State

Sounds more like a problem --in Washington State.

Achilles said...

Freeman Hunt said...
It's the growth rate. We are behind them but growing at a similar rate. The idea is that we may still have time to slow ours before we end up with their outcome.

The growth is exponential not linear.


How the do people get off just posting things like this?

This is wrong.

The numbers are right here.

Those are the definition of a linear graphs.

And if you put flu deaths on the same graphs you get a flat line at the bottom that is just above zero. This is sickening and killing orders of magnitude fewer people than the flu.

The important numbers people need to track by the way are air temperature and humidity.

Achilles said...

narciso said...
Italy is in the middle of the three months cycle, china is at the end, the us is starting in the first month

Looks like we got lucky then.

It is going to get warm soon and coronaviruses don't do well outside 5-11 degrees Celsius.

MayBee said...

I will note that a number of Italian doctors (including one close to my family) are saying that if they'd recognized what needed to be done, and done it right away, they themselves would have thought it an overreaction.

Thanks, JPS.

It still strikes me that Italy *did* get that bad, we didn't then (we still might! We might not!), other countries didn't (but some did!).
So I'm not comfortable with the idea that the only way to not be like Italy is to go on lockdown, or that Italy is where they are only because they didn't go on lockdown.

rhhardin said...

Take up archery at home. Ride the horse. Sagittarius.

MayBee said...

Yancy- I can easily believe it started before the Chinese government got caught.

I knew several people who had a flu with severe respiratory problems this winter, and I know some of them are convinced they had Corona virus.

NYC JournoList said...

Exponential growth on a linear scale will show an increasing upward slope. That appears the case with the charts in your link, does it not? Total deaths are expected to double every 4.5 days if social distancing is not enacted. The real unknown is what proportion of the population is vulnerable to the infection. The cruise ship took drastic distancing measures so it is likely not the worst case.

MayBee said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Ficta said...

"In January and February, the highs are usually in the 40s and lows in 30s. Not unheard of weather here."

Oh, absolutely. It's just a factor I haven't seen much mentioned. Also, we should be a good deal warmer than that as we move into April. Hope it helps slow the virus down.

rhhardin said...

The Ohio surgeon general lady says it has logarithmic growth. E.g. every time the time doubles you get one more case.

J. Farmer said...

Oh, absolutely. It's just a factor I haven't seen much mentioned. Also, we should be a good deal warmer than that as we move into April. Hope it helps slow the virus down.

There is some hope that warmer weather may show somewhat of a decline in cases. But we do see it spreading in Thailand, for example, and it's very warm there right now. April is their hottest month of the year, generally.

mockturtle said...

Lurker21 pens:
Arnold locked in
At home with tiny horses.
Next year: Tiny centaurs.


Oh, my! Let's hope not. ;-)

Roost on the Moon said...

Achilles / Freeman:

China arrested the spread in Wuhan with extreme measures that won't be taken elsewhere. Since the Chinese outbreak accounts for nearly half the cases in your "linear" graph, take those out and see what it looks like.

Not linear.

J. Farmer said...

@Achilles:

What is even worse is a bunch of bleating sheep freaking out over something that is killing less than a 10th of the number of people the flu is killing right now.

Interestingly, your "freaking out" over "bleating sheep" seems to be much more emotion-laden and irrational than any of the people I know taking proper measures to contain the spread of a potentially harmful disease.

Oh I know how it is worse. Trump is president now and Obama was then.

Yeah, when I look at Italy, I see nothing but Trump Derangement Syndrome everywhere. Plus, since swine was amenable to certain antiviral medications, and so far the mortality rate and hospitalization rate have been higher for Covid-19, with the caveat that we're still in too preliminary a time to have solid figures.

And the sheep hate it when they realize they are tricked.

Yeah, like thinking they were going to democratize Afghanistan and Iraq. Go fuck yourself.

walter said...

Michael Yon, who has been exiled to Thailand (from HK), recently characterized the approach there as "Don't worry. Be happy."

Yancey Ward said...

Maybee,

Here is a comment I wrote on this blog on January 1st:

"I am rarely asleep at midnight, but was last night. I was recovering from a very nasty bout with the flu. I don't know if this year's vaccine pack would have prevented it, but you should go get the shot if you haven't. You don't want this strain of the flu, believe me."

1/1/20, 12:06 PM

I rarely get the flu- the last time I had it was in 2009, and before that, my early 20s. I do get a cold with stuffed sinuses once or twice a year, but not the sore throat or high temperature. What struck me about this illness was its symptoms- it wasn't just my throat that was sore- my immune system wiped out the top layers of my throat right down to the main bronchial tubes past the epiglottis. I literally couldn't talk for the three days, and swallowing anything other than ice cream was painful, and breathing deeply caused me pain near the top of chest. I managed to resist the urge to cough continuously during this period because it hurt a great deal to do so, but it took an amazing amount of will. As my throat began to heal around December 30th or so, the infection seemed to take a second act in my sinuses and tonsils that last until about January 3rd or so until it, too, began to heal.

Now, I never had a true shortness of breath, but for the first two weeks of the year, I was coughing up truly massive amounts of mucous from my bronchial tubes, and had a greatly reduce endurance when I went back to the gym. I had fully recovered by the 3rd week of January, but I don't want to go through that again.

Now, was it COVID-19? I don't know, but I probably do have links to China. I caught this virus from my sister and her family who were visiting with us the week before I got sick- I started to feel ill the day before they left on the 26th. My young niece had it- the terrible sore throat, high temperature etc., but they all had it before they came down here. My sister works in Boston in high tech software- she easily could have caught this from any one at her company who traveled to and from China in December/November.

As soon as someone begins testing for antibodies that I can reach, I intend to get test for them just so I know. Like I wrote, it is most likely that I had influenza, but this was unlike any influenza I have had. I even had the gastro-intestinal problems some have claimed for COVID-19- they came the first week of the year, and I simply wrote that down to my having not eaten anything solid for a week at the time.

tim in vermont said...

NBA and Players Association reach agreement to eliminate drug testing during coronavirus hiatus.

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-nba-players-wont-be-subject-to-drug-testing-during-coronavirus-hiatus-152313981.html


LOL

J. Farmer said...

Michael Yon, who has been exiled to Thailand (from HK), recently characterized the approach there as "Don't worry. Be happy."

That's a fairly apt description of Thailand in general. Of course, it should be pointed out that large numbers of Chinese refugees arrived in the late 19th and early 20th century and now almost completely dominate the country economically. The lesson: don't always look to Thais for smart ways to act.

mockturtle said...

Yeah, I don't know what Achilles' problem is. Are they closing his favorite bar or something?

FullMoon said...

I will note that a number of Italian doctors (including one close to my family) are saying that if they'd recognized what needed to be done, and done it right away, they themselves would have thought it an overreaction.

As overwhelmed as Italy is, glad most of the doctors are still alive.

Bay Area Guy said...

Well, San Francisco says we all have to stay at home now.

So, the folks who panicked, mis-interpreted data, mis-interpreted numbers, don't read scientific studies, forgot about last year's flu season (34,000 deaths in US), forgot about SARS in 2003, forgot about Swine Flu in 2009, got their wish.

Lotta small businesses are gonna be hurt. Lotta lower income blue collar folks will be hurt.

I am reminded of what a famous President once said during the Depression, "...the only thing we have to fear is fear itself - nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyses needed efforts to convert retreat into advance."

Numbers in California:

Population: 39 Million
Coronavirus deaths: 6



walter said...

Yeah Farmer,
I believe he mentioned a lot of incoming from China.
This won't help either:
Smoking rate on the rise despite govt efforts -Thailand

tim in vermont said...

"Those are the definition of a linear graphs.”

No, they are not. Notice that they have that pronounced curve upwards in recent days, and you can’t trust any data that came out of China so ignore the beginning and focus on the numbers coming out of Europe.

mockturtle said...

Has buwaya shown up in the last few days? Spain is having a seige of the virus now [9,682 cases and 342 deaths with 48 deaths just today] and I hope he and his family are OK. And it would be nice to hear his perspective. Buwaya?

J. Farmer said...

p.s. It's also worth nothing that Prayut Chan-o-cha is a complete crazy person who relies on fortune tellers to make most government decisions. And even then, Thailand is ramping up its response. Closing pubs and entertainment venues remains a possibility, and a newly built hospital is being converted into a facility for Covid-19 only patients.

mockturtle said...

Some of the global graphs look linear but the US map and the map of individual European countries are mostly exponential at present.

J. Farmer said...

@walter:

Yeah Farmer,
I believe he mentioned a lot of incoming from China.
This won't help either:
Smoking rate on the rise despite govt efforts -Thailand


That wasn't exactly what I meant about the Chinese, but I take your point ;)

I'll never forget the first time I saw a pack of cigarettes in Thailand. They are all covered with photos of diseased lungs. I was living there when they passed the indoor smoking ban, and yet not a single bar I went to ever enforced it. In Thailand, paying bribes (or "tea money") to cops is considered a normal part of doing business and is often line items in a budget. On the rare occasions that Thai business owners actually have budgets.

tim in vermont said...

Politicians aren’t scaring me. My understanding of math is scaring me. If we bend the curve by this “overreaction” then the noise will be all about “It wasn’t necessary” like Y2K.

Achilles said...

J. Farmer said...

Yeah, like thinking they were going to democratize Afghanistan and Iraq. Go fuck yourself.

Easy question for you since you want to be angry.

What is going to kill more people this year Flu or COVID-19?

Another question. You like to bet money. Are you taking the over or the under for total COVID-19 deaths? The bar is the number of people killed by Swine Flu. Estimates were 115,000 - 500,000 people died of Swine Flu in 2019.

I will give you the lowest estimate: 115,000.

More or less Farmer?

Baaaaah.

FullMoon said...

One of the interesting things about the virus is that it somehow has created a situation amonst the commenters where there are serious and continuous disagreements as to whose opinion is correct, and whose is wrong.

Complete with facts, figures, predictions, historical data, name calling and stubbornness.

Lighten up people. Let's talk about something fun, like climate change, or Trump.

Achilles said...

Roost on the Moon said...
Achilles / Freeman:

China arrested the spread in Wuhan with extreme measures that won't be taken elsewhere. Since the Chinese outbreak accounts for nearly half the cases in your "linear" graph, take those out and see what it looks like.

Not linear.


Oh god.

MayBee said...

Yancy- very interesting. Thanks for sharing (as always) Yes, it will be good when we get antibodies tests.

tim in vermont said...

The most remarkable part of this is that it’s like everybody has their IQ tattooed on their forehead based on their responses to this.

Achilles said...

I meant 2009, not 2019. Fat fingers.

Achilles said...

Aunty Trump said...
The most remarkable part of this is that it’s like everybody has their IQ tattooed on their forehead based on their responses to this.

That is the definition of confirmation bias.

FullMoon said...

Estimates were 115,000 - 500,000 people died of Swine Flu in 2019.

Any info about predictions at the time as to how many would potentially die from Swine Flu? Wonder how accurate they were

NYC JournoList said...

Today’s Dow drop was second largest in history, just edging out Black Monday 1929 and people are shrugging it off. I think we are already in the jaded part of the cycle in New York. Well into part two of Camus’ La Peste.

Achilles said...

mockturtle said...
Yeah, I don't know what Achilles' problem is. Are they closing his favorite bar or something?

I am trying to get a job in a city and in an industry that just imposed a near complete hiring freeze. My current job just went full online and is totally screwed up. People are paying for a service where I work and they are not getting it. It pisses me off.

The effects of this are going to last for many months.

And the flu is worse than this every year.

J. Farmer said...

Achilles:

More or less Farmer?

Baaaaah.


It's telling that the issue of numbers of deaths has been addressed by myself and others on this blog dozens and dozens of time, and you still think it's some kind of gotcha point. To paraphrase The Dude, "Achilles, I love you, but sooner or later, you're going to have to realize the fact that you're a god damn moron."

Achilles said...

FullMoon said...
Estimates were 115,000 - 500,000 people died of Swine Flu in 2019.

Any info about predictions at the time as to how many would potentially die from Swine Flu? Wonder how accurate they were

Nobody cared. Obama was president.

I think Ann had 2 posts on the topic that I could find.

It is fucking ridiculous.

J. Farmer said...

I am trying to get a job in a city and in an industry that just imposed a near complete hiring freeze. My current job just went full online and is totally screwed up. People are paying for a service where I work and they are not getting it. It pisses me off.

God forbid you think about anybody but yourself.

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