... you can talk about anything you want... except tonight's debate. Go one post down for that.
March 15, 2020
At the Wall-of-Ice Café...
... you can talk about anything you want... except tonight's debate. Go one post down for that.
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I feel like I’m part of a giant social science experiment with this COVID-19 stuff. It’s very strange. Nothing seems real. Perhaps because... it isn’t?
Will the wall stem the tide of Asian carp?
Helen Crump (Sheriff Andy Taylor's girl) was on Columbo, together with Spock and Dusty Farlow. With all those episodes in B&W, I didn't know she had reddish hair.
I agree, Ignatius. I have never experienced anything like this.
None of us has, I guess.
What will the future be like?
Enjoy this Norm Macdonald coronavirus routine.
Meanwhile I see that the FBI has somehow managed to lose the files related to Michael Flynn. Riiiiiight.
Those ice built-ups get really big on the Great Lakes, especially on Superior.
Time-lapsed,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kD5TJv-Pug
If any good comes out of The Plague, it will be that the world has to re-examine its relationship with China.
The world hoped against hope that the Chinese Communist Party could stay sane, and continue to pursue the policies begun by Deng Xiao Ping in the late 70s. The world opened up to China, entered into deep & fundamental business relationships with China, all in the hopes that China would become a "normal" country.
All of these hopes are in the process of being shattered by the ascension of Xi Jin Ping to the Presidency & General Secretary of the Communist Party. Xi seeks to build Maoism 2.0 with himself as the Great Leader in place of Mao.
Mao's reign over China was one disaster after another. The Korean War killed hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops as they were thrown into the buzz saw of Allied artillery & air power (the Chinese don't even know how many of their troops died -- they use American estimates!). The war almost bankrupted China, and for just a shit hole of a country & the Kims! Then came the Great Leap Forward, where Mao thought he could use Soviet Lysenkoist agricultural pseudoscience to supercharge agricultural production & raise foreign exchange via exports. Well, they exported the crops all right, starving to death perhaps as many as 60 million Chinese peasants in the process. Then came the systematic destruction of almost artifacts of Chinese history within China (the "Four Olds" program & the Cultural Revolution). Finally, came the Cultural Revolution, in which once again millions (probably around 15) died, but Mao made the mistake of targeting senior Party members & they rose against him.
All of these things happened & most of the world knew nothing of them,because China had sealed itself off from the world in communist autarky. Aside from those God-forsaken Chinese who had the misfortune to live through those years, it had little effect on the rest of the planet.
Not so today. In the case of the new Corona virus, the same managerial ethos that created the famine of the Great Leap Forward created the reportorial failure out of Wuhan. The local leadership cannot tell to the truth to the higher ups of unfolding catastrophes, lest their careers & often their lives & their families' lives are put at risk. Even if a brave cadre member passes the truth up the chain, a higher level will quash it before it gets to Beijing. Only when a catastrophe cannot be denied does the truth begin to peek out in dribs & drabs.
China cannot be Maoist & be engaged in the world. The rest of the world cannot risk it. The rest of the world must now stand down China & tell them this cannot continue. The business community must start pulling out of our business relationships with China. China knows what it must do, and the world must not avert its gaze until China makes one very visible & public change --- Xi Jin Ping must go.
Nobody expects the Spanish Inquisition.
The governor of Ohio has ordered the close of all restaurants. Don’t know what authority he has to do this. Could somebody explain? Are we suddenly a dictatorship?
"Ice on the rocks" is so beautifully meta.
etbass, my husband asked this on Facebook and was immediately lectured by our middle aged relatives that those old folks who had “fought for our freedom” deserve the rest of us giving up our basic rights, financial security, and our children’s uninterrupted educations in order to protect them from a disease whose level of danger is a big question mark. Hope that helps!
David Horowitz likes to say “scratch a liberal and you’ll discover a totalitarian screaming to get out"
Somebody asked about a book called 'Sapiens' by YN Harari a couple of days ago? There's plenty of reviews about, but I'd just add my personal recommend. Thought-provoking, and well worth the time.
I've been eating out, some, like I usually do. The restaurants are half full. Not good. but I do enjoy the serenity.
Government whores for lie - er Politicians who can manipulate Ukrainian Energy companies so their son can drive a porche and live in Hollywood don't care.
Remember- Joe doesn't work for you - you work for him.
Well speaking as one of the old pharts most at risk of dying if I get infected with the ChinaFluDuJour, I would appreciate if everybody just practiced decent hygiene, stayed home when sick, did not lick the door handles, etc.
Closing bars, restaurants, etc. seems excessive, and the folks who work there probably cannot handle the loss of wages\jobs - but of course I am sure the folks deciding to close everything have thought through all the ramifications...
Be cautious, be mindful, but for youir childrens sake, don't panic.
Well, here in MA it looks like I will be social distancing whether i want to or not.
"the world has to re-examine its relationship with China"
Including American higher ed.
Since Chinese students have paid for the prog model, indirectly bribing the left into supporting China's ascent, a decrease in that income stream will do more to undermine diversity and political correctness than decades of conservative criticism.
I’m not arguing the merits of shutting all restaurants. I just want to know what legal authority it is based on.
I am the governor and I say so? Kind of like the mayor that gave herslf the authority to ban gun and ammunition sales in her city? They are Democrats and they say so.
I'm hoping the Pima County air and space museum is till open this week. I'm planning to go.
I plan to go to dinner with a friend this week. We were going to meet at a restaurant but it may be closed.
Today I went to look at the ocean. I figured that I could maintain social distance at a winter beach and I could but I was not alone in my calculations. A lot of people were out walking on a cold but sunny day. I don't think people should be confined to their houses, unless they're working, that's overreach. If people don't calm down they might start losing money. American life is so complicated that it would grind to halt if only those three reasons were acceptable. What about baby sitting, shopping for home schooling items, getting exercise, buying mouse traps, spring clothes, dry cleaners, helping people move, filling in part-time. If people don't calm down they might start losing money.
On my way to Rye I stopped for gas and asked the woman at the counter how the zombie apocalypse was being for her. She thought it was funny but then she told me these things: 1. A friend of hers with a newborn can't get baby wipes from anywhere. Six friends are also looking everywhere to find them. 2. The rumor was that baby wipes and hand sanitizers and toilet paper were all being bought here and taken into Canada. 3. The meat and vegetable aisles were wiped out in all the cheaper supermarkets round about. So on my way home I stopped in at the local supermarket and all the hamburger and chicken was sold out, except a few large family packs of wings and thighs. The more expensive cuts were plentiful. Over in the vegetable area it was the reverse. All the fingerling potatoes were gone and in the fruit section three rows of strawberries were wiped. Otherwise it looked much as usual. Plenty of broccoli. If people don't calm down they might start losing money.
If people don't calm down they might start losing money. I myself think that corona won't spread to any great degree anywhere where the flu season is ending - in other words in the south or anywhere where there is a lot of sun - most of the west. But flu panic, which seems to have replaced TDS as the leading disease on CNN, might spread anywhere. If people don't calm down they might start losing money.
Arashi and other old pharts—it is my duty and my pleasure as a decent person to take the normal sanitary precautions that you mention. I don’t want any of you or any of my older friends and family to get sick. I just think this level of acquiescence to extreme disruption is a dangerous precedent. What’s the next threat we’ll be convinced can’t be ignored?
Amazon's one or two day Prime delivery is up to four days.
@Michael K., what is the name of your latest book?
Where is ACHILLES and rest of the “it's not even as bad as flu” crowd?
Italy today, 368 dead, in one day. Italy has 60mm people. So that's 1,800 in the US. Times 365 days would be 670,000 dead in a year.
Now maybe Italy is worse than here. Could be. But even at a third of that, 223,000 is four times a bad year for regular flu.
And we still don’t know whether it will get better or worse.
IS THAT JUST LIKE FLU?
What’s the next threat we’ll be convinced can’t be ignored?
Young people who are not compromised, and who may have immunity, may still be carriers and a hidden "burden" waiting to be birthed.
The governor of Ohio has ordered the close of all restaurants. Don’t know what authority he has to do this. Could somebody explain? Are we suddenly a dictatorship?
Apparently the order is from the Ohio Health dept director. Ohio revised code seems to give authority for exceptional power to reduce spread of infectious disease. And since food establishments and liquor establishments are licensed by the state some ability to regulate versus other types of establishments.
https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/wcm/connect/gov/aa5aa123-c6c9-4e95-8a0d-bc77409c7296/Health+Director+Order+Limit+Food%2C+Alcohol+Sales+to+Carry+Out+Delivery+Only.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CONVERT_TO=url&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE.Z18_M1HGGIK0N0JO00QO9DDDDM3000-aa5aa123-c6c9-4e95-8a0d-bc77409c7296-n3wHV26
I have missplaced my pants - I think it is over the top as well. If I was paranoid, I might start to wonder just what the hell is actually going on.
I think prudence is good - but the level of panic is counterproductive and it would be good if everyone took a deep breath.
Since I live in the general area of the outbreak in Kirkland, WA - I would also like to see the authorities doing something to figure out why so many have died at the Life Care Center and find out who was patient zero at the Life Care Center. It might be important information.
Instead, I am told to sanitize my hands every few minutes (with a product that cannot be found in the greater pugetopolis), stay home for an indeterminate period (who is supposed to do y normal shopping?)...
Why dont' we all just hold our breath for 2 months, after all the WuhFlu is airborne and that should stop it.
YoungHegelian
I agree with you, as so often. But how can he be made to go? Maybe a revolt starting in Hong Kong. But maybe not, or maybe it would be crushed by a newer virus.
Look though at what passes for high level debate in American politics now. Promises about the sex and race of appointments. Open borders and nullification. Rude tweets.
The only hope for your goal is Trump re-elected. He seems to be the serious candidate, the one with ideas. But it’s impossible to handle this virus in a way that cannot be used against him, even if he handles it well.
There was a minor plague that irrupted in 1910, two years before the fall of the manchu dynasty that led to the first republic of china.
etbass: The governor of Ohio has ordered the close of all restaurants.
In 2018, there were 17,000 some odd diagnoses of stage 3 AIDS.
In 2017, just over 16,000 died of AIDS.
Since the beginning of the AIDS pandemic, nearly 660,000 have died of it.
We know exactly how to stop it: quarantine sufferers; close gay establishments; demonize promiscuous gay sex.
Yet nothing but crickets.
To be perfectly clear to those who are comprehension impaired. I'm not demonizing gays. Rather, it is, to me, impossible to reconcile the reaction to AIDS with that to COVID-19.
I'm staying in Indianapolis tonight. One of the best steak houses in town, St Elmos, is closing tomorrow. Their business is getting devastated, as are their employees. And hotels. And, well, you can go on from there.
For what?
The people who work for a living are taking a large hit under the present strategy. The ones who live paycheck to paycheck are getting hit hardest. Retirees are minorly inconvenienced comparitively.
No one wants to put a dollar amount to a human life, but economic suffering is a part of the equation.
Ohio is also providing an interesting provision. Since liquor is distributed via state agency the state is offering to refund returns of unopened liquor from licensed establishments. All the bars that stocked up for st paddies day and ncaa tournament are at least not stuck holding excessive inventory.
Our town was recently added to the Audubon Society Back Yard Habitat program. Everybody's signing up.
For $35 a volunteer comes and evaluates your property for invasives that need to be pulled and naturescaping, etc. that could be done. It's great!
Today I ordered a bat house for $25 with an Audubon logo and a nice bat picture to let them know a new home is available. I also built a curated brush pile in the corner. That's two more check marks towards my certificate sign, which, as I said, is all the rage.
It's also great for the birds, too.
UK doing it differently.
follow links inside for details.
and English and science you can think about.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/the-british-approach-to-coronavirus.html
Hey Skipper
Covid is highly contagious. AIDS was not.
Last Ohio info - the order is not to close bars and restaurants but to limit to carry out only. No congregating.
My employer texted his half dozen employees on Saturday, and cut back on everyone's hours, attributing this to a plague-affected decline in business. Am not receiving Social Security income yet so the budget will be rather tight for a bit; Dominus dedit, Dominus abstulit and so forth.
Bars and restaurants may be closed tomorrow, as Governor Brown becomes more accustomed to her exercise of the state's emergency powers. Perhaps she will impose a curfew, too; who knows.
It being Sunday, I didn't stop at the supermarket after Mass; don't think I will need to shop again until perhaps Tuesday or Wednesday and will be interested to see the state of the shelves then.
are you sure about that
ig Mike said...
@Michael K., what is the name of your latest book?
War Stories. 50 Years in Medicine.
I did a Kindle version of my medical history book, too.
“Where is ACHILLES and rest of the “it's not even as bad as flu” crowd?
Italy today, 368 dead, in one day. Italy has 60mm people. So that's 1,800 in the US. Times 365 days would be 670,000 dead in a year.
Now maybe Italy is worse than here. Could be. But even at a third of that, 223,000 is four times a bad year for regular flu.
And we still don’t know whether it will get better or worse.
IS THAT JUST LIKE FLU?”
NO
The Hansens really were criminal in their negligence in taking little Annika along when they stupidly tried to go study the Borg up-close.
YoungHegelian said...If any good comes out of The Plague, it will be that the world has to re-examine its relationship with China.
--
We sure got some "linkage" going on.
A J Cronin and Frank G Slaughter wrote medical novels
UK doing it differently.
“closures would have to be at least 13 weeks long to reduce the peak of Covid-19 by 10-15%. Measures such as self-isolation for seven days for those with symptoms … have been modelled and are shown to be much more effective”
Reach herd immunity in the shortest amount of time possible. There is a logic to it. While Britain's leaders are getting a lot of political pressure presently there will be a lot of economic pressure in the future in the US as this drags on. The government expenditures and economic dislocation are going to be huge.
They could have really done something with Seven if Trek history did not end with the end of Voyager and DS9. The bad-ass hottie who is inwardly a vulnerable little girl. It should have been worth a movie or two at least. TV movie, though, not some overdone pretentious theater movie.
“Reach herd immunity in the shortest amount of time possible. There is a logic to it.”
The worst possible thing to do. It will overwhelm the healthcare system, a nightmare. Look at Italy. Do we want that situation for our elderly population? What will the human expenditure be?
Has anyone seen stats on how many people into critical care survive?
Well they brought her back in atar trek picard and shes kind of interplanetary vigilante.
I find myself torn between concern for this pandemic and believing in the stringent measures being taken and the horrible, nagging fear that this is a government exercise in totalitarian control. And not just our government.
Really? Well, any of these pay-per-view Trek shows don't count for me.
Ken B, responding to me: Covid is highly contagious. AIDS was not.
Huh? AIDS literally decimates a population through contagion and it isn't highly contagious? (NB: AIDS is highly, but very specifically, contagious.) We know exactly how to stop AIDS in its tracks: self quarantine, monogamy.
660,000 dead. 17,000 new cases a year. Untold billions of health care resources.
How is it that the reactions to AIDS and COVID-19 aren't entirely out of whack?
Pacwest: There is this:
"A study on 138 hospitalized patients with 2019-nCoV infection, published on February 7 on JAMA, found that 26% of patients required admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) and 4.3% died, but a number of patients were still hospitalized at the time. [9]
A previous study had found that, out of 41 admitted hospital patients, 13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.[5]"
No they are terrible, faracape (which james gunn admits inspired gardians of the galaxy) and babylon 5 were better ahows
Inga: Italy today, 368 dead, in one day. Italy has 60mm people. So that's 1,800 in the US. Times 365 days would be 670,000 dead in a year.
Total dead in Germany, not today, but so far: six.
Oh, and Euronews is a perfect example of journalists so stupid as to need continuous adult supervision.
I am sure, as a medical professional, you quickly spotted their pig-ignorant error.
What will the human expenditure be?
closures would have to be at least 13 weeks long to reduce the peak of Covid-19 by 10-15%.
While the flatten the curve graph is a good concept for the moral reason you state it is a meaningless tool without a time frame and some reliable numbers. When are we expecting a vaccination?
What will the economic suffering be? Like it or not it is part of the equation. Ask a young low wage earner. They are probably already pissed they are paying into the SS ponzi scheme they won't see a nickel of.
Inga:
I left this out. [Italy, 368 in a day. Germany, six total.] Why?
Hey Skipper
Learn to read. I provided those numbers. And they are factual.
So answer the question. Is it like flu?
And you moron the fact AIDS is deadly doesn’t prove it’s contagious. It was almost never casually transmitted.
Skipper, the data I see show Germany with 13 deaths. Still small by comparison to Italy and Spain but the surge hasn't occurred there as yet.
mockturtle,
So abut a 50% success rate once they reach ICU?
The comparisons between Britain's and the USA's strategies will help us determine policy during the next pandemic.
"Giovanni Maga from CNR told Euronews that in Italy a person who tested positive while alive or post-mortem is counted as a coronavirus-death. "I don't know if Germany or France follow the same criteria," he noted."
--
Err..that could make a difference..
The worst possible thing to do. It will overwhelm the healthcare system, a nightmare. Look at Italy. Do we want that situation for our elderly population? What will the human expenditure be?
Inga is right. What we need to avoid most is a big surge of cases for which we have insufficient personnel or facilities. Spreading out the rate of infection might be frustrating but far more manageable.
@Ken B,
But how can he be made to go?
By the world shutting down the Chicoms' access to those things they want & need. Send their children home from foreign universities. Prohibit cash transfers out of China to world banks (yeah, right, I know...). Prohibit purchases of real estate by Chinese nationals or stock in corporations.
But, the first world's got to get on board with this, and, make no mistake, it's gonna hurt like a sonfabitch for a while. But, you know what? That pain will be concentrated on organizations that can afford it, unlike this pandemic.
It's not just this. It's China getting so belligerent in its neighborhood that the neighbors are considering allying with the US or upping their defense budgets. It's a list of tainted products from China that grows ever longer (e.g. Ranitadine is the latest casualty).
Unless we make them stop, none of this stops. The elephant that we have let in the room has gone insane, and will trash the house unless we use the 50 caliber on him.
Angela Merkel was told by their scientists that 70% of the German population would become infected. And since they aren’t supermen, the percentages of deaths will be similar to Italy if they don’t flatten the curve of infections.
better data
Just a reminder:
We have been here before.
If I get out tomorrow--life goes on, right?--I'll try to maintain double open order.
Narr
And not lick doorknobs. Very important.
The upside:
http://columbiaclosings.com/pix/20/03/p1620354_tn.jpg
If people cant get paid, its not much of a silver lining.
Ken B: And you moron the fact AIDS is deadly doesn’t prove it’s contagious. It was almost never casually transmitted.
Hey, I have an idea. Don’t respond to an insult-free comment with an insult.
Okay, let’s assume AIDS isn’t contagious. How is it that 17,000 people a year are getting it?
(Pro-tip: joining mortality and transmissibility is a near perfect example of a non-sequitor.)
So, Washington State Governor Snake Inslee is doing everything to save his pitiful political life. Tomorrow, he is shutting down all restaurants, all bars, all gyms, all recreational facilities and all entertainment (e.g. movie theaters)facilities.
TWO-THIRDS of all US deaths due to Coronoa WuFlu are in Washington State. Almost all were from the original nursing home (<5 miles from my home).
But Governor Snake Inslee has shut down all schools throughout the state. And he's going to shut down all restaurants, theaters, etc throughout the state.
This is the man who told VP Pence that "we" didn't need any help from the feds except that Trump should stop lying.
If I didn't know better, I would wonder if God sent the Corona WuFlu to Washington State first so we would want to throw out Snake Inslee in November.
What will the human expenditure be?
What will the difference in deaths be by using the flattened graph strategy? Huge or minimal?
How long are we going to have to stretch it out? Are we going to be able to withstand the economic pressures that will mount?
Kathryn51 reflects my thoughts. Although, we call him Jay Dimslee.
“What will the human expenditure be?”
“What will the difference in deaths be by using the flattened graph strategy? Huge or minimal?”
I’ve heard minimal, but slower so the healthcare system can handle it. And it buys time to develop a vaccine.
Was the Lifecare in WA really a nursing home or more an ICU or subacute, like others have suggested?
“Was the Lifecare in WA really a nursing home or more an ICU or subacute, like others have suggested?”
I thought it was a typical nursing home with a rehab unit and a dementia unit.
If I didn't know better, I would wonder if God sent the Corona WuFlu to Washington State first so we would want to throw out Snake Inslee in November.
Susan, as a former WA [Seattle] resident, I hope you will. WA has had a terrible batch of governors for decades now. To me, Gregoire was more of a snake and Inslee more of a doofus. Was Evans the last Republican governor? Good grief, and even he was a f-ing liberal!
Life Care Centers [a chain] are Skilled Nursing Facilities, meaning their patients require some kind of intervention demanding more advanced care than an assisted living facility but less intensive than a hospital. They have to meet different standards for certification, as well. And are usually a lot more expensive. My husband was in a SNF for over two years and it ran $8K/month. They are probably even more by now.
Re: Lifecare
I checked the website a few weeks ago (when news began) and it appeared to me to be the standard type (the type that my father spent various periods of time in when he went back and forth between assisted living and nursing home): 1/2 rehab (following surgery or illness - the type reimbursed by medicare for 100 days) and 1/2 long term nursing (not reimbursed). I believe the Coronoa WuFlu began due to a care worker recently returned from China. It's also my understanding that most of the deaths were patients in the long-term nursing half (that is, the chronically ill who were not returning home).
Chloroquine effective in treating in novel Coronavirus; excellent news. Some studies show that it may work as a preventative, also. Chloroquine has been around for a long time and its effects on humans are equally well-known. FDA should fast-track approval for COVID-19 prevention/treatment so doctors aren't afraid to prescribe off-label.
This information, widely disseminated, could help disperse all this closure nonsense and related panic and economic disruption.
EVERY time I use preview to check links, spelling, etc, Blogger double-posts. Very annoying!
mockturtle said...
Was Evans the last Republican governor? Good grief, and even he was a f-ing liberal!
Last Republican was John Spellman (1981-85).
Washington State has the dubious record of longest run of Demorat governors in the entire country. Even Massachusetts, Illinois and California have occasionally elected a Republican. And they get more and more corrupt with time - with Snake Inslee the latest example. Gregoire was political - but not corrupt; but the Dem party made sure that the election was stolen on her behalf.
"...it is, to me, impossible to reconcile the reaction to AIDS with that to COVID-19."
It takes more than mere social interaction with someone or being in close quarters with others to become infected with the AIDS virus.
Is your point that the reaction to COVID-19 is an overreaction, that it is too alarmist as compared with the reaction to the AIDS crisis? The gay community excoriated the government for not being alarmist enough about AIDS, for not acting earlier and with greater commitment to finding treatments for the AIDS virus, for dismissing it for too long as simply deserved "wages of sin" to be expected among objectionable perverts living aberrant lifestyles. The reaction to COVID-19 may, in retrospect some time ahead of us, appear to have been overblown, but at this stage, we cannot know how widely it will spread or how many will lose their lives. An old saying covers it: "Better safe than sorry."
I think that in the US, we will eventually (hopefully in two weeks or less) will get around to what the UK is doing about Covid-19 :
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/03/the-british-approach-to-coronavirus.html
What we doing now is unsustainable.
God doesnt do these things, its the other guy. He seems to have more an audience even though they deny he exists.
My mother spent her last days in a Lifecare on a ventilator..much more a hospital setting than the SNF my father was in.
In any event, the swankiest restaurants in DC will remain open as “essential services”, as will those in donor-dense parts of Beverly Hills, Manhattan, and — of course — Martha’s Vineyard.
“Covid is highly contagious. AIDS is not”
Yet 16,000 people managed to die from AIDS in 2017, reportedly. If a bunch of junkies and homos can buck the odds, so can we!
Closing things doesn't equal lockdown- that is the key point a lot of the supporters of closings are missing here, and it is why the British modelling shows it does very little to reduce the peak infection point. All you do in such a circumstance is displace the social interaction to smaller, but still intimate locales.
Do you think a Wuhan type lockdown in the entire US would work? Would enough people obey it? What would you be prepared to do if they didn't- shoot them? How would you determine when to lift it? I note that Wuhan is still locked down, and Chinese new cases haven't dropped to zero, and probably won't drop to zero any time in the next 3 months. Until they do drop to zero, you can't lift a lockdown where it is imposed because it is all but certain that you will just be forced to do it again once the new cases start rising again, as they will because the herd still doesn't have immunity.
The economic chaos is going to kill more people than the virus at its worst.
Of all those who have died from WuFlu, how many were over 78 years old? I say they don’t count; they lived longer than most, and they would have died soon, anyway. If they had died from AIDS, at least they would have had more fun.
Looks like a number of firms have developed immunoassays for both IgM and IgG antibodies to COVID-19. This will be a very important tool if the press releases are correct, and I assume they are. It will allow the idenfication, if they exist, of non-symptomatic carriers because you can combine both the immunoassay and the RT-PCR test for the virus itself. It will also allow people to confirm whether or not they survived COVID-19, or just the regular flu this past flu season.
Meh. The Cuban Missile Crisis was much more exciting than the coronavirus epidemic.
I mean, since we're talking about never having experienced anything like this before.
Yancey,
That would go a long ways to providing a better picture of where we (US) are, what to expect and how to control.
Paucity of critical data currently.
Some perspective:
Italy has had 1809 COVID-19 deaths in the last calender month. Over 50,000 people have died in Italy in the last month from all causes.
Some perspective: Italy has had 1809 COVID-19 deaths in the last calender month
Some people expect it to be a progressive process with a ramp a la the infamous "hockeystick" inferred from proxies with limited perspective and mischaracterized effect. It may be, but there are prudent steps being taken to mitigate that progress.
how many were over 78 years old? I say they don’t count;
Not viable? A "burden" h/t Obama. Planned Parent? Ironic.
“Covid is highly contagious. AIDS is not
HIV was for trans/homos and friends with "benefits", and, to a lesser extent, blood transfusions. Perhaps that's why they thought normalizing male couplets under the principle of political congruence ("=") of the Pro-Choice religion was justifiable. Not exactly wicked, but certainly a progressive path.
Common factors between China, South Korea, Iran, and Italy? Air pollution and smoking. That is not getting enough attention, probably because there is concern that that will cause people to not take it seriously enough. But it is either not as contagious as feared, or not as dangerous to the great majority of people as feared, or both. If that wasn't the case, Seattle would be a ghost town by now, because it was obviously well-established there before anyone knew what was happening.
The "wall of ice" picture reminds me of Andy Goldsworthy's wonderful artwork. Thanks.
It's good to see this blog has a sense of humor about current issues. I happen to be more concerned, like pants and mock, about the casual loss of our social rites, (rights?), over Covid. Flexing "martial law" as the left accused Trump of doing is an awesome sight. As exhelodrvr points out, this just isn't killin off the masses. The FBI "Loosing" General Flynn's files, coupled with not filming or recording their interrogations worries me more than Covid.
Remember... only the strong survive. Man comes... man goes... and he always leaves alone.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=huqHjxBMWss
Closing restaurants it seems to me destroys all sorts of secondary supply chains, as well as leaving lots of hand-to-mouth workers without an income to trade for food.
Maybe get jobs restocking supermarkets.
The nicest way of closing restaurants is just raise the minimum wage.
Fantasy sports ought to surge. You don't need the real ones.
You mean we compare our fantasies, and allocate points depending on which ones are better? I pick Laslo to be on my team!!
It's a huge opportunity for Amazon to step up. Dump come capital into it.
Amazon prime hot pizza.
Avoid Amazon prime takeout Chinese though, at least until decoupling.
It's too easy for one waiter or cook or dishwasher to infect hundreds.
I'm a little worried about buying fresh fruits and vegies, though they seldom come from cities.
Why is there no people kibble. My dog does fine on a month-lasting bag of dog kibble.
Solution for parents with children home from school: take your daughter to work day.
Amazon could allow Kroger to be a seller, and deliver their stuff.
rhhardin... writing "feverishly"... report to sick bay immediately!
"or not as dangerous to the great majority of people as feared, or both.”
It is waay early to draw any conclusions like that, comforting as it may be. You can’t just claim that it’s been around longer than we have known about it, and then take heart in the fact that few have died from it. This whole thing is an interesting case study in denial, which is a real thing.
"report to sick bay immediately!”
No. Call sick bay and discuss it with them and they will decide what to do with you.
I wish we had a news network that didn’t view this as a huge opportunity to wound Trump or as a time to attack Democrats.
It looks like Gin and tonics (quinine) all around!
"It is waay early to draw any conclusions like that, comforting as it may be"
It's too early to draw ANY conclusions, but the evidence points that way. And that is a more likely scenario than most of the ones being promulgated. Which is not to say it shouldn't be taken seriously, in particular for certain demographics.
Ohio is paying unemployment benefits to the restaurant workers, without the usual one week delay to confirm their status. Also not penalizing the employers for the unemployment (usually they raise your unemployment insurance premium you pay to the state when you fire someone and they claim unemployment) I am sure, though, we will all pay higher unemployment insurance premiums in the future.
"but the evidence points that way. And that is a more likely scenario than most of the ones being promulgated.”
Denial is the longest river in the world, as they say. Your interpretation of the evidence that you have seen points that way. It seems the most likely to you. I think that there is evidence that there are a lot of factors, and lung health is almost certainly one of them. It doesn’t look like the only one to me.
It’s completely irresponsible to say it’s not likely to kill you because you never smoked and live outside of a major city so you are not going to get a bad case, and then end up on a respirator anyway, leaving the doctors with the choice of who to let die, so they let some other guy die because he’s older than you, or something.
There are lots of younger people on respirators in NJ. Maybe they are smokers, IDK. Maybe its from that smell you smell sometimes driving through Newark, IDK.
"Meanwhile I see that the FBI has somehow managed to lose the files related to Michael Flynn. Riiiiiight.”
It’s in the same place the recordings from the camera watching Epstein are.
I almost never read long comments all the way through, but YoungHegelian’s comment is worth it.
You cant frame someone without losing evidence: eg lewis libby.
"While the flatten the curve graph is a good concept for the moral reason you state it is a meaningless tool without a time frame and some reliable numbers.”
Have you ever watched Air Disasters? Sometimes they re-create the steps that the pilots went through to save a flight. I don’t recall any where they managed to save the flight were they said, “well, there’s nothing in the books for this, so I may as well call wifey and say good bye.”
Crowds at Disney World.
https://twitter.com/WDWNT/status/1239351087741702145
Ha! Disney deleted it already. It’s a huge crowd packed cheek to jowl.
rhhardin said...
Why is there no people kibble. My dog does fine on a month-lasting bag of dog kibble.
They're called MRE's and you can buy them.
Why is there no people kibble. My dog does fine on a month-lasting bag of dog kibble.
They're called MRE's and you can buy them.
"Monkey Chow" also works for humans.
WaPoo has an interesting article on the merits of travel bans and social distancing, that they let out from behind the paywall as a public service.
Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially, and how to “flatten the curve”
And assuming you make it through that one:
Coronavirus: Why You Must Act Now
China won't be made to change until the world quits paying China to make everything we all use. We gave them the world's manufacturing. We literally built up the world, then handed that ability over to the Chinese to save some labor dollars. We (meaning the rest of the world) needs to take a chunk of that back home. It'll help the populace of our own countries by putting them back to work and rebuilding our own middle class, and it'll cut China's ability to manipulate the world by half.
How or why we insist on paying a country to further our own demise is something future generations will look at with wonder.
For those contemplating the idea the economic consequences of pandemic may be more harmful than the pandemic, Cochrane ponders the economics of economics of pandemics in a couple of podcasts
Area 45: John Cochrane
Random ideas: The economy is going to shut down...a better public health response would have helped...humans experience economic shutdowns (Christmas week, France in August) but unlike the current situation we're prepared...The Fed is easing and pumping but the problem isn't aggregate demand...loans are better than bailouts, which is why government will choose bailouts...business will be in trouble, which is why government will mandate business pay for paid leave...
...and on...
Temujin, I totally concur. But consider how much more expensive everything would be. Are we ready for that?
Shorter podcast here (but what else do you have to do?):
The economics of pandemic
Considering the economic, social and medical situation, I'd say the shit has finally hit the fan.
God doesnt do these things, its the other guy
If those characters are as wimpy as you think they are, you should be able to exorcise any naughty vibes by waving around some 432Hz crystals, or, come to LOL about it, Christals.
wildswan: If people don't calm down they might start losing money.
"Might start". I applaud your having the self-control to have avoided peeking at your investments or perusing the financial news lately, but, alas, losing or not losing money in times like these is not contingent upon one's personal state of equanimity. Granted, freaker-outers are likely to lose more than the phlegmatic, but the rain falls on both alike.
At least my automatically-reinvested dividends are buying more shares. ;-)
Limit down in the markets when they open. Prob halted by CB’s. Whee
"Result: the entire population of Italy will be dead in a few hours short of 30 days.”
That’s not how it works. But isn’t it pretty to think so, as Hemingway once said.
Temujin: How or why we insist on paying a country to further our own demise is something future generations will look at with wonder.
Nothing mysterious here. Businesses have been eyeing the huge Chinese market forever, wanting to get in and profit. Honest self-interest was abetted by more corrupt self-interest in going all-in on "free" trade with China (all the way to sourcing components for military equipment from the very country we were being told at the same time was our #1 enemy.)
There were always saner and more far-sighted voices telling us that this would not end well, but they were drowned out by a barrage of loud propaganda from all sides, condemning any dissenters as anti-free market economic illiterates and racists.
They're probably going to close the Market for a period. Those algorithms that automatically sell at a certain price are killing stock prices right now.
"Limit down in the markets when they open.”
People want cash so that they can buy up assets for pennies on the dollar as this plays out. A lot of people got extremely rich buying up prime real estate for pennies on the dollar, even real estate that was paying its own way, during the depression.
"Those algorithms that automatically sell at a certain price are killing stock prices right now.”
Partly. Those guys make money on market swings, and they are toasting every new swing in prices, but at bottom, in my humble opinion, it’s lack of people with conviction, AND the sufficient filthy lucre, to buy stocks right now.
“Cash is king” When people can’t even sell bonds as the stock market falls, you have to wonder. The same thing will happen to safe havens like real estate. People will be forced to sell it to cover other losses. In my humble opinion. I still think I can ride it out without panic selling, but my losses are starting to get into the scrotum tightening area.
If deaths caused is the only metric used for the pandemic then the calculations get a lot easier. The flatten the curve model looks best for that.
I clicked on Joan's link about treating the virus with Chloroquine and saw this:
"Since then, we have also shown the activity of hydroxychloroquine on Tropheryma whipplei, the agent of Whipple's disease, which is another intracellular bacterium for which hydroxychloroquine has become a reference drug "
Whipple's Disease! Ah, ha, we now have the explanation for why Charmin is suddenly a precious commodity!
(Anybody who gets that joke is old enough to be in the Corona higher-risk category.)
You can sell bonds. The interest rate being now aero means that old bonds are extra-valuable. On the other hand where are you going to invest the cash. Just clip the coupons and enjoy it.
"You can sell bonds.”
Last week this truism sort of failed and yields went way up for a time and prices crashed. The Fed stepped in to buy them up.
"Meanwhile I see that the FBI has somehow managed to lose the files related to Michael Flynn. Riiiiiight.“
With all the hoopla the last day or two on this, I thought for sure something new had happened there in the case. Nope. Just finally bubbled up to the notice of PDJT.
The missing evidence is, of course, the original FD 302s from the Flynn interview FBI agents Peter Strzok and Joe Pientka setup as a perjury trap by Deputy Director Andrew McCabe. The funny thing though is that all the pieces were there by that summer, in public, when Mueller was forced to dump Strzok and Page the next summer because some of their text messages became public. In those text messages, they talk about waiting for McCabe to approve 302s, and then the trigger was pulled. The question then was why the Deputy Director of the FBI was approving witness interview transcripts. That just isn’t done. Thousands of 302s are generated a day by FBI agents around the world, and automatically logged into their Sentinel change management system. Yet, McCabe insisted on approving one particular 302. That turned out to have been the 302s submitted by the Mueller prosecutors to Flynn’s compromised first set of attorneys as Brady material.
Brief interlude. Most documents are not directly admissible in court to directly prove a case, as being hearsay. The FBI routinely gets around this by immediately (w/I 48 hours) writing down witness testimony on 302s, which fits into a hearsay rule exception. Because chain of custody is important, every version of the 302s written by FBI agents are automatically entered into their Sentinal system.
These were experienced FBI agents, who after decades in the FBI, no doubt automatically wrote down what Flynn said in their interview of him, as well as their impressions of how he said it (he appeared truthful). But the original 302s, written near contemporaneously weren’t the 302s submitted to Flynn’s lawyers by the Mueller prosecutors. Instead, in direct disobedience to Judge Sullivan’s standing Brady order, the 302s submitted were the ones personally approved by DD McCabe maybe six weeks after the interview (which, of course makes them inadmissible hearsay). Moreover, we found out (again from their text messages) that the changes to the 302s that were approved by McCabe were given to Strzok by Page, then McCabe’s personal FBI lawyer. To summarize - the FBI’s Deputy Director’s personal attorney, upon his orders, modified the testimony of these two agents that was submitted to the court.
Why was this important? We didn’t know for well over two years, but Powell appears to have gotten copies of early versions of the 302s, and they indicate that the FBI agents (Strzok and Pienta) believed at the time that Flynn was testifying honestly, and that part was removed by McCabe and Page. Which of course blows up the case, since the one charge was just that - lying to those two FBI agents.
Then we get to the prosecutors. Led by a previously disciplined career prosecutor with decades of experience. They knew how the Sentinel system works, and that six week late 302s are not evidence, but inadmissible hearsay. They knew that the 302s submitted weren’t the right ones, by their dates. By this point, they had likely dealt with hundreds, if not thousands, of 302s, and knew that they had to be near contemporaneous to be admissible evidence.
Here is the bottom line, and everyone knows it. The Sentinel system for 302s is a change management system for legal documents. Every version of a 302 is present in the system, or its deletion has to be logged and authorized, very likely by a high level supervisor. The originals are either still in the system, or their deletion was authorized by someone in the FBI’s top management, and the name of that person was logged. Moreover, the prosecutors have been hiding this from the judge.
Well done. Thanks, Bruce.
I would appreciate if everybody just practiced decent hygiene, stayed home when sick, did not lick the door handles, etc.
Didn't lick door knobs? Some people can't even restrain themselves from licking toilet seats. Tsk.
Apparently, in France, most of the COVID-19 patients in ICU are under 60 years old.
Listening to organ music by Buxtehude.
Aside: don’t take NSAIDS at the moment unless your doctor has said to. They seem to inhibit resistance to covid (which makes sense about any infection).
Not sure if it’s been posted here, but excellent podcasts from Dr Peter Attia and guests discussing SARS cov-2 from all angles. #97 and #98 are super interesting, if not somewhat scary. Dr Peter Hotez from Baylor, who was on the cable channels this AM is guest on #97.
https://peterattiamd.com/peterhotez/
If those characters are as wimpy as you think they are, you should be able to exorcise any naughty vibes by waving around some 432Hz crystals, or, come to LOL about it, Christals.
Why do some atheists have to be a$$holes about it?
You can sell bonds.”
Last week this truism sort of failed and yields went way up for a time and prices crashed. The Fed stepped in to buy them up.
The yield has been fluctuating a lot but it's always way below what it was last month. 1.2% vs 0.2-5% for 2yr treasury. I.e. the price is way higher than it was last month.
The Fed buys bonds when it sets a new lower target, not to aid in people selling them. Buying bonds converts illiquid bonds to liquid cash in the economy.
I've been eating out, a few, similar to I typically do. The cafés are full. Not great. in any case, I do appreciate the tranquility.
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