December 13, 2019

At the Ice Water Café...

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... keep up the conversation.

And remember the Althouse Portal to Amazon.

Photos taken at 7:33, 7:33, and 7:37 this morning. The actual sunrise time was 7:21. The sun itself was invisible. It was a super-soft sunrise.

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73 comments:

eddie willers said...

So when can you do the Joni Mitchell thing?

rcocean said...

Excuse me, while i put some on that.

rcocean said...

Pictures 1 and 3 are so dreary. Can we all just commit suicide?

Leland said...

Seems like Taylor Swift needs to calm down.

tcrosse said...

Ice Eight.

stevew said...

The ice, it grows.

Is it me or has the Impeachment Inquiry shambled on up to the finish line? All the air seems to have gone out of that balloon.

Native Austinite said...

Ice, ice, baby.

The IG's report makes it clear that Mueller's team spent no time validating the FusionGPS dossier findings. By ignoring the dossier and by dragging the Muller investigation out past the mid-terms, Mueller's delay may be partly responsible for the House Dem majority that are voting to impeach. Mission accomplished, Mueller, Brennan, Clapper and Comey!

Big Mike said...

Very dreary and depressing.

Titus said...

Why can't you swim in those lakes?

wild chicken said...

Shoulda worn my Althouse WonderCleats today, but by the time I realized how icy it was I was plum wore out and came back home.Shoulda

You're either properly cleated or you're not.

Aunty Trump said...

Stephen McIntyre@ClimateAudit
·
1h
This is potentially an interesting connection. Romney campaign's foreign policy advisor was Stephen Schrage, the Halper associate who invited Carter Page to Cambridge symposium on July 11-12 at which Halper surveilled Page.


Romney doesn’t want any kind of a trial. His campaign manager was on the board of Burisma.

Achilles said...

Skylark said...


Romney doesn’t want any kind of a trial. His campaign manager was on the board of Burisma.

I will be interested to see how much money Graham and Burr have made over there as well.

Sasse is almost acting as if he is clean. But my guess is China is his bugaboo.

Drago said...

Achilles: "Sasse is almost acting as if he is clean. But my guess is China is his bugaboo."

We already know that China owns Amash outright thru his family business. Amash has to vote for impeachment or suddenly there are going to be supply chain "problems" for his company.

rcocean said...

Mitt has suddenly gone into Radio silence. Guess the NYT's doesn't need an R "reaching across the aisle" and calling TRump a "racist" when there's an impeachment trial going on.

Don't worry after this is over, Mitt will be in the News again, attacking Trump and winning applause from the Left.

rcocean said...

Sasse is getting paid off by paul Singer. If you want to know which way Ben will vote, ask Paul Singer.

rcocean said...

Mitt's up to eyeballs in Foreign corruption. So, are a lot of Senators, that's why Miss Lindsey won't call Biden as a witness.

Guildofcannonballs said...

https://theonlyfloridaman.com/index.php/2019/04/14/yes-somone-actually-made-a-florida-man-documentary-and-here-it-is-folks/

Seeing Red said...

Via Rantburg:

WattsUpWithThat] The sun is currently in the midst of a deep solar minimum and it is about to reach an historic milestone. So far this year the sun has been blank (i.e., no visible sunspots) for 266 days and, barring any major surprises, it’ll reach 269 days early next week which will be the quietest year in terms of sunspots since 1913 when the sun was spotless for 311 days. In fact, the current stretch of consecutive spotless days has reached 29 and for the year the sun has been blank 77% of the time. The current record-holder in the satellite era for spotless days in a given year is 2008 when the sun was blank for 268 days making the 2008-2009 solar minimum the deepest since 1913.

Solar minimum is a normal part of the 11-year sunspot cycle, but the last one and the current one have been far deeper than most. One of the consequences of a solar minimum is a reduction of solar storms and another is the intensification of cosmic rays. The just ended solar cycle 24 turned out to be one of the weakest in more than a century ‐ continuing a weakening trend that began in the 1980’s ‐ and, if the latest forecasts are correct, the next solar cycle will be the weakest in more than 200 years....

And from the comments:
Several weeks ago, an article was posted here about a Russian scientist perfecting her model of solar output. The model fit known solar patterns over the last 400 years or more. One conclusion was the years 2030-2050 could be the coldest in 400 years.


It’s not the first time I’ve read 2030 + is going to be cold.

I’ve read 2030-2100 colder than normal then it heats up again.


Seeing Red said...

We recently watched Pleasantville again.

It was made around 1998. The school scene where the teacher was lecturing about global warming and what it would be like in 20 years — now — was instructive.

Tommy Duncan said...

Soon great fun will result from a pair of ice skates and a large sheet of cardboard. Speed skates work best. Smart students learn physics by leveraging the wind.

The snobs have ice boats. And hand warmers. And face masks. And hot toddies in a thermos.

Bob Boyd said...

What a country!

Elliott A said...

Question for the Professor: Does a congresspersons oath of office effectively place them under oath during official house proceedings and if so would not intentionally lying during said proceedings constitute perjury? Who has the standing to charge them if this is so? i.e. Adam Schiff...Thanks

Drago said...

Seeing Red: "It’s not the first time I’ve read 2030 + is going to be cold.

I’ve read 2030-2100 colder than normal then it heats up again"

We are certainly heading into a minimum which is why the dems/left/LLR-lap poodles are desperate to get back into power so they can claim their magical green nude eels saved the day when it will have been a naturally occurring periodic solar minimum.

FullMoon said...

rcocean said... [hush]​[hide comment]

Pictures 1 and 3 are so dreary. Can we all just commit suicide?


Yeah, Meade ought to take a chainsaw with him next time.

David Begley said...

Badgers v. Corn tomorrow for a trip to the volleyball Final Four. WI beat NE twice this season.

Watch!

Earnest Prole said...

Looks colder than Hillary Clinton's tits.

Phidippus said...

Seeing Red quoted: "The model fit known solar patterns over the last 400 years or more."

Proves nothing. It is a trivial exercise to fit a model to a known data set. The problem is that such a model has no predictive value. The ability to make predictions requires more than a model, it requires a theory of what causes what.

We lack such a theory for climate, and for the Solar cycle.

Anybody who had linear regression in undergrad (or business) school knows that you can always pick parameters to fit a line to a data set, but no one in their right mind thinks you can predict the future from that. If it were possible anyone could get rich speculating in the markets.

Curve (or model) fitting is not necessarily useless; it can sometimes be suggestive of an underlying physical law, which could then be proposed as a hypothesis and tested by experiment.

It is difficult to imagine what sort of experiments could test a theory of the mechanism behind the Solar cycle, if we had one. Which we don't.

madAsHell said...

Holy Smokes!! Hilary had some work done, and she's starting to look like Barbra Streisand.

narciso said...

Teh horror:


https://dailycaller.com/2019/12/13/doj-imran-awan-records/?fbclid=IwAR3FY7HeTV81KnEGSjZP8csc-Qg-omHrzlBBqvjqm2lc2ung3g5DtXL-fWY

Seeing Red said...

The Daily Mail:

Hundreds of Antifa protesters clash with police outside Downing Street and are ridiculed for holding anti-democratic 'F*** Boris' protest just hours after the nation voted to make Johnson Prime Minister

narciso said...

Oh really


https://www.nj.com/opinion/2019/12/after-a-massacre-in-a-jewish-market-in-jersey-city-a-rabbi-seeks-a-muslims-advice.html

Fernandistein said...

"German Shepherd fails service dog test but becomes Internet sensation
Watch the video...

narciso said...


Come again:

https://www.nysun.com/editorials/joe-bidens-brexit/90942/?fbclid=IwAR1jWP_QhNqOPs9rxPVPQFo3uBoB31gSdN2F7Nq4k6d8e0N3pdzpfqEZP2s#.XfQVeR5PQg8.facebook

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

where's joe pientka,
the FBI agent who accompanied Peter Strzok to the White House on Jan. 24, 2017 to interview Trump's new NSA adviser, @GenFlynn?
He's also the FBI agent who met with Bruce Ohr to pass on Steele info to FBI.
He tapped into Halper, the crack cocaine addict, (the least of his unsavory habits)
See Svetlana Lokova's work to find out what an absolute POS this guy was involved in this shit-show

Drago said...

Uh oh!! Existential crisis for LLR-lefty Chuck!!

Up to now LLR-lefty Chuck has been pretending to support Mitch McConnell (wink wink- to sell that LLR facade) but LLR-lefty Chuck has really REALLY been supportive of Stolen Valor Da Nang Dick Blumenthal. And now Blumenthal is attacking McConnell!!

LOL

What a conundrum!

Whats Chuck going to do? Follow his heart and real purpose and drop the charade by attacking McConnell? Or will he instead grit his teeth to the point of cracking them and pretend to attack Blumenthal?

This is going to be fun fun fun.

Seeing Red said...

I’m looking at headlines in the British papers about yesterday’s vote.

The Grauniad is trying to raise $1.5 mil because 2020 will be an epic year for America.

Huh?

narciso said...

No halper is the company factotum, which ayen for china and sticky fingers o
In finance (palmer national bank) went under he may have been the middleman between steele and the fmr russian intel officer married to a ukrainian im contact with simpson before and after the trump tower meet.

Seeing Red said...

And don’t forget - inEngland, snowfalls are a thing of the past.

Except this weekend it seems. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

narciso said...

Sound like when they tried to flip hanilton county in ahia in 04.

narciso said...

What is this jeremy corbyn day


https://www.algemeiner.com/2019/12/13/ignoring-rest-of-world-un-general-assembly-approves-eight-anti-israel-resolutions/?fbclid=IwAR2i-mLzK0yaACxmRSKaYzeYcugpBji6YSb7zpfFDVTch5fcplymBFapRYA

stephen cooper said...

going on .... Water of purest hue
On earth, would appear turbid and impure
Compared with this, whose concealing dew

Dark, dark, yet clear as ice, moved under the obscure
Eternal shades whose interwoven looms\The rays of sunlight or moonlight

or something in between


Toda el agua que fuera aquí mas limpia
arrastrar impurezas pareciera
a esta que nada oblida comparada

por mas que esta discurra oscurecida
bajo llegiedra sombras que no dejan
nunca paso a la luz, se puede que si se puede que non,
del sol ni luna, del sol y luna,
porque la nuestra ultima esperanza esta la injusticia del buen Dios nuestra Señor tan amabile

narciso said...



You meanrefuse to aupply heavy weapons to ukraine for three years.

https://mobile.twitter.com/alimhaider/status/1205688923554557952

chuck said...

Proves nothing. It is a trivial exercise to fit a model to a known data set. The problem is that such a model has no predictive value. The ability to make predictions requires more than a model, it requires a theory of what causes what.

I can't speak for solar patterns, but making a model fit too well (over fitting) makes the predictions even worse. Basically, the model is made to fit features that it can't account for and that messes things up. There is a suspicion that most climate models are over fitted. They don't model from scratch and there are knobs that are adjusted to fit a period of time for which temperatures are somewhat known.

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

Yuck! Who can live in that environment?

Speaking of which, who wants to save my marriage. The wife absolutely wants to live in southern California for the climate and style of life.

I absolutely refuse to live in LA because I hate that soul-sucking town. I hate the traffic, the pollution, the endless miles of concrete and highways.

Any suggestions for nice smaller cities is SoCal without outrageous home prices?

stephen cooper said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Lucien said...

@Bill, RoT:

San Luis Obispo?

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

Lucien.

Noted. It looks great.

narciso said...


What could go wrong:

https://mobile.twitter.com/davereaboi/status/1205687806338752513

RK said...

Anyone got tips on tattoo removal technology/companies? I want to invest -- that's going to be a thing, if it isn't already.

Bruce Hayden said...

“ The IG's report makes it clear that Mueller's team spent no time validating the FusionGPS dossier findings. By ignoring the dossier and by dragging the Muller investigation out past the mid-terms, Mueller's delay may be partly responsible for the House Dem majority that are voting to impeach. Mission accomplished, Mueller, Brennan, Clapper and Comey!”

Interestingly, the previous Congress requested that the Carter Page FISA warrants be declassified. Trump was initially in favor of it. Then DAG Rosenstein told him that Mueller’s rabidly partisan prosecutors would use that to find him Obstructing Justice (using the Weissman/Lawfare misinterpretation of the Obstruction statute I have repeatedly discussed before). Trump backed off, at least until the OIG FISA investigation was complete. It’s complete. There are repeated calls for the applications to be fully declassified. I would expect that Trump will be more interested this time.

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

@narciso
what does 'no' mean in your 9:17 post?

"Now we know why the FBI (Wray) has gone to such great lengths to keep Pientka away from Congressional inquiry.
The IG Report found that under Pientka's supervision and approval, there were incorrect factual assertions in the 1st FISA app.
Put more bluntly, Pientka knowingly lied to the FISA court." per @TechnoFog

"Also, Joe Pientka ("SSA 1" in the report), who also interviewed Flynn with Strzok, made the operational decision to use Halper as a source targeting the Trump campaign". per @JohnWHuber

wildswan said...

"Bill, Republic of Texas said...

Any suggestions for nice smaller cities is SoCal without outrageous home prices?"

Maybe you could look for towns or areas of towns that still have dirt roads. In the DC area that signifies lower house prices but middle class people (or else millionaires and the highest house prices of all.)

narciso said...

About the drugs maybe acomma would have helped

Crazy World said...

Yes Bill, all is not lost there yet, SLO town is not really Southern Ca but close enough and lovely, Pismo Beach is excellent also.
Lots of little towns on the way...

Unknown said...

Pismo Beach is excellent also.

Just watch out for that left turn at Albuquerque!

narciso said...


Oh:

https://mobile.twitter.com/JerryDunleavy/status/1205624685142130690

narciso said...

Voldemort is less two faced than amash, he wanted troops out of syria and afghanistan but not this way

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

is there a Latin phrase for this?

Obama gave Pearson Publishing $350 million to create Commoncore text and Pearson gave Obama a $65 million dollar book deal in return
The Obamas’ $60m book deal has broken all records.

Jon Ericson said...

insidiosis coniurationem fecerant?

Unknown said...

Is there a Latin phrase for this?

Yep.

Ingachuck'stoothlessARM said...

this rocks

Lesbian Walks Up to Church Saying “I’m Here For My Stoning,” Guy Tells Her to “Come Back Tomorrow”

https://reformationcharlotte.org/2019/12/12/lesbian-walks-up-to-church-saying-im-here-for-my-stoning-guy-tells-her-to-come-back-tomorrow/

Yancey Ward said...

is there a Latin phrase for this?

Sure- "Vos scalpere dorsum, ego scalpere dorsum."

Also, in Welsh- flesmih llik t'ndid nietspe yerffej.

Unknown said...

Lesbian Walks Up to Church Saying “I’m Here For My Stoning,”

She must have been a rainy day woman.

Jon Ericson said...

Julius Caesar walks into a bar and says, "I'll have a Martinus."
The bartender gives him a puzzled look and asks, "Don't you mean a Martini?"
"Look," Caesar replies, "If I wanted a double, I'd have asked for it."

Mr. Forward said...

"You're either properly cleated or you're not." Wild Chicken

I took my darling walking across the lake on ice
She told me she had cheated and she wasn't very nice
She wasn't properly cleated, I didn't have to push her twice
Now I need a lawyer cause her cleatage didn't suffice.


Aunty Trump said...

Note the timestamp on this tweet:

thom@thwphipps

the year is 2019 and president trump is discussing isis with prime minister johnson
12:36 PM · Jul 4, 2015


https://twitter.com/thwphipps/status/617371513277259776

He says he’s a screenwriter. Which I guess is true: https://www.imdb.com/name/nm7074745/

traditionalguy said...

The first layer of the 5 miles thickness of an ice age glacier. You got to start it somewhere.

Jersey Fled said...

Sunspot activity predicts a decade of colder than average global temperatures starting around 2030.

Time to move south.

stevew said...

We've had unusual weather in the Boston area over the past several weeks. Unusual in the sense that there have been more cold days and snow than I recall typically getting in late November and December.

Phil 314 said...

Ahh yes, bare trees in the winter gray sky. My youth. The images still resonate BUT

Sunshine is therapeutic, especially in the winter.

Phil 314 said...

As usual. The image didn’t get properly linked.

https://images.app.goo.gl/fjn1ts1yffc4m6TE9

Michael K said...

There are repeated calls for the applications to be fully declassified. I would expect that Trump will be more interested this time. <

Yes, he was surrounded by swamp creatures until Barr came along.

Nichevo said...

This is quite the feint with Joe Pientka. Back in the day it seemed that he and Strozk had partnered on the interrogation of Flynn and I for one had thought that he had been the good guy and it was Strozk who falsified the interpretation of the interview in the 302s. But apparently, the content of their 302s was reversed all along, that is, the authorship was confused, what was thought to have written by the one was written by the other. Not sure where to go from there. Except that we seem to have another villain.