February 14, 2018

"Republicans have erased the Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot in a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll..."

"Fully 39 percent of registered voters say they would support the GOP candidate for Congress in their district, while 38 percent would back the Democratic candidate.... And while House Democrats have pledged to yoke GOP candidates to House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the poll suggests that House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) will be a more effective foil for Republicans than Ryan will be for Democrats.Voters are split on their perceptions of Ryan: 36 percent view him favorably, and 40 percent have an unfavorable opinion. But Pelosi’s numbers are more negative: Only 28 percent of voters have a favorable impression of her, while nearly half, 49 percent, view her unfavorably."

Politico reports.

75 comments:

n.n said...

Despite or because of the progressively white noise.

William Chadwick said...

The Ellsworth Toohey media has done its work. Expect the little girl nuked while picking daisies to make a return.

Nonapod said...

To be fair, the Dems have quietly been winning a bunch of regional elections lately. But who knows if any of this is indicative of anything trendwise.

chickelit said...

Sad thing is, Dems don't care. The want to be more decisive than ever. They’ve staked their future on the emerging electorate and there is no going back.

MikeR said...

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
Hopeful, but way too soon to breathe a sigh of relief.

Anonymous said...

That blue wave is taking the Tidy Bowl Man down with it.

Ironically, the GOP is flush with money.

holdfast said...

I suspect the Dems still have a significant enthusiasm advantage right now. Blind hatred is a powerful force for motivating the mindless.

Balfegor said...

For Democrats, being even with Republicans in an off year election seems like a disaster, no? Don't they usually have to run a few points ahead just to break even on election day because their supporters are more lackadaisical about voting? On the other hand, the Democrats' supports probably trend richer this year than in prior years, and the Republicans' supporters poorer, because of Trump, so maybe the built in Republican advantage is gone. Those suburban voters and elderly voters who actually bother to show up on election day may be more Democratic than in previous years.

But in any event, that's a big group up for grabs. Seems like it's less Republicans converting Democratic voters than Democrats losing voters to "undecided."

Ignorance is Bliss said...

I'm sure that once the Democrats make clear that Trump is every bit as bad as Kim, the voters will come around.

Wilbur said...

Elemental facts:

Democrats in swing districts are terrified of being tied to Ms. Pelosi. Thus her campaigning and appearances will be limited to safe blue districts.

So why is she still Minority Leader? Because she brings in the donor do-re-mi.

Kevin said...

Where's Inga? I find these things mildly entertaining at best, but she's always eager to discuss the lasts polls.

YoungHegelian said...

While I'm doubtful that there's going to be a "blue wave", the Dems seem to have pulled off quite a few "one-off" victories in special elections, even in some "Republican" districts.

What this means for the general elections, I don't know. But it should be pointed out that whatever may be the Democrats' problems, they certainly haven't "cratered" yet.

Big Mike said...

For Democrats, being even with Republicans in an off year election seems like a disaster, no? Don't they usually have to run a few points ahead just to break even on election day because their supporters are more lackadaisical about voting?

@Balfegor, the answer is no. The takeaway from what happened out here in Virginia last November is that Democrats are extremely energized and there's no reason not to expect them to stay energized this November. Also, in 2010, 2012, and 2014 Barack Obama and Debbie Wasserman Schultz starved (there's no better word) the DNC's state and local election efforts to suck up money for presidential campaigns. (I have that second hand, but from a Democrat, and an angry Democrat who will emphatically not be staying home next November.) Certainly if we can believe Donna Brazile, and there's no reason not to, in 2016 it was more of the same for Hillary Clinton. The latest I've seen is that Democrat donors are skipping the DNC and routing their money directly to campaigns.

I don't think there's a "blue wave" coming, partly because it will be easy to nationalize the elections using Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama as foils to wend of attacks on the GOP candidates based on Trump in the White House. But any Republican who tells himself or herself that they won the primary and can coast home on the generic ballot is headed for a very sad election eve.

Achilles said...

Democrats are going to get massive turnout... in safe democrat districts. Huge.

There will be record amounts of cash spent on the 2018 race by wealthy progressives.

It won’t turn the house.

The senate is republican for a generation.

Achilles said...

My money is on Susan Rice being the second democrat to turn States evidence.

Going to be tough for democrats while Obama is releasing denials and “no comment.”

wwww said...



August is a good time to look at generic numbers.

Traditionally Presidential party in power looses seats. We'll see what happens. It's early days.

roesch/voltaire said...

I think more voters have their eye wide open and that bodes stormy waters for Republicans.

Curious George said...

"Roesch/voltaire said...
I think more voters have their eye wide open and that bodes stormy waters for Republicans."

Please do share your insight on this please. I would like to save it and mock you later.

wwww said...

For Democrats, being even with Republicans in an off year election seems like a disaster, no? Don't they usually have to run a few points ahead just to break even on election day because their supporters are more lackadaisical about voting?


I'd guess they'll need about +5 to +8.

We know Trump is ticking up as a trend in January as compared to Nov/Dec.

Start taking the generic numbers seriously in August. Right now it's one data point. State election lost in Florida in strong Trump district yesterday.

Jim at said...

Where's Inga? I find these things mildly entertaining at best, but she's always eager to discuss the lasts polls.

She had a hissy fit the other day, claimed everybody was ruining everything by injecting politics into things that had nothing to do with politics - while bashing Pence in an Olympics thread.

She then huffed off and claimed never to return until Mueller comes forward with his findings and then Trump is impeached.

I took that to mean she's gone for good.

I'd like it to remain that way, thank you.

Bruce Hayden said...

Smartest thing that the Dems could do now is retire Nancy Pelosi, with extreme prejudice, if necessary. One of the things that worked well with the MT special election to replace our Conressman turned Interior Secretary was showing pictures of her with the Dem nominee, and then claim that he would vote as she told him to. Now, we have the putative Speaker, if the Dems win, one of the richest members of Congress, telling everyone that their bonuses, from the tax reform bill she and her caucus voters ted against, are crumbs. For her, probably anything under eight figures is probably crumbs. The ads write themselves.

Achilles said...

Kevin said...
Where's Inga? I find these things mildly entertaining at best, but she's always eager to discuss the lasts polls.

Contemplating the next comment handle.

The democrat party is going to quietly bleed support all summer. Few will admit they were wrong. The remaining democrats will turn to violence.

Comanche Voter said...

We are going to have to open the 2018 election results to see what's in it.

Nancy Pelosi--the Dem's gift to the GOP that just keeps on giving.

Matthew Sablan said...


Blue Wave.

Birkel said...

Can we hold off the Red (communist) wave?

Trump hovering near 50%.
The press in full-on melt down.
Tax policy putting more money in pockets.
The scandals from the Deep State.

Any wave will be due to Republicans gaining more than 1000 elected offices nationwide under Obama. Reversion to the mean is a thing. Note well that there was never a Republican wave predicted. That was merely the voters throwing a tantrum, according to Tom Brokaw.

Big Mike said...

@Achilles, while you're busy running victory laps -- nine months in advance of the elections! -- do take a look at what I wrote at 3:08. If you don't want to see Trump hamstrung by a House of Representatives that is a lot more Democrat than the present one, then I recommend you join me in getting to work.

The Cracker Emcee Activist said...

"To be fair, the Dems have quietly been winning a bunch of regional elections lately. But who knows if any of this is indicative of anything trendwise."

Democrats lost a thousand seats during the Obama years. Hardly remarkable if they get a few hundred back.

WisRich said...

Maybe a good barometer for any party enthusiasm gap is the up coming WI Supreme Court primary. One Conservative, one Liberal, and one far left #Resist nut job. Big dollars being spent on this race and we're not even past the primaries.

The Cracker Emcee Activist said...

Oops, Birkel just made that point. Hey, I'm at work. I can only goof off enough to write, not read.

Kevin said...

Contemplating the next comment handle.

Ah, we have reached that point again...

Thank you both for the update.

Fabi said...

Turnout will be a key in the midterms. Democrats have typically been flat in off-years but have an incentive to flip the House for an impeachment. The Republicans need someone in high office who is a good communicator, loves to fight, and enjoys holding rallies to get out the vote. Someone who loves the spotlight. Preferably someone with a Twitter account. I'll try to figure out a good candidate for that effort.

Michael K said...

I suspect the Dems still have a significant enthusiasm advantage right now. Blind hatred is a powerful force for motivating the mindless.

I agree and this is no time to get cocky.

On the other hand, the Dems have pretty much committed to the "Crumbs" strategy and that may erode a lot by November.,

There may be more high profile resignations and even a few indictments by fall. I think Flynn has all charges and his plea dropped. Manafort and his pal are of no concern.

Mike Sylwester said...

The Democrats have a strategic plan to win back the under-employed White voters in the Rust Belt states:

* Advocate the establishment of sanctuary cities for illegal aliens.

* Make racism accusations against everyone who questions Democrat policies.

* Accuse the US President of being an agent of the Russian Intelligence service.

* Immigration preference for siblings, parents and cousins of amnestied illegal aliens.

DanTheMan said...

Polls? Ask President Hillary about polls, and how good they are at predicting elections.

Tom said...

I don’t buy it. Too many special elections have gone the opposite direction.

Birkel said...

Reversion to the mean. Do you speak it?

Left Bank of the Charles said...

Things will pick up for Democrats after Paul Manafort’s tax evasion trial. I wonder if it will be televised.

Tom said...

For Trump, the GOP must keep the senate. All the appointments, especially judicial, are the key here. But if the GOP, it’s Trump v Pelosi and we know how that plays out in the run up to 2020.

traditionalguy said...

I love the cruelty of the GOP guy's CRUMB Act they just introduced in Congress. It exempts the recent tsunami of Tax Reduction bonuses to workers from paying an Income Tax.

That is twisting the knife .

The Godfather said...

As Glenn Reynolds often reminds us, Don't get cocky, kid. If opinion polls could be trusted, we'd be in the second year of the Hillary! Presidency.

mockturtle said...

I'm shocked---SHOCKED!---that Nancy Pelosi isn't universally loved and admired.

Rabel said...

Where's Inga?

Chicken Pox comes back as Shingles so don't give up hope.

Sebastian said...

Lots of wishful thinking here. It will be easier for the Dems to run against Trump than for the GOP to run against Pelosi.

Even a blue wavelet will suffice to put Dems over the top. Let's be afraid, if only for purposes of motivation.

Drago said...

Left Bank of the Charles: "Things will pick up for Democrats after Paul Manafort’s tax evasion trial."

LOL! Good one!.......


Oh, uh, you're serious....

Fritz said...

Mike Sylwester said...
The Democrats have a strategic plan to win back the under-employed White voters in the Rust Belt states:

* Advocate the establishment of sanctuary cities for illegal aliens.

* Make racism accusations against everyone who questions Democrat policies.

* Accuse the US President of being an agent of the Russian Intelligence service.

* Immigration preference for siblings, parents and cousins of amnestied illegal aliens.


Don't forget allowing men into the little girls rooms.

Big Mike said...

It will be easier for the Dems to run against Trump than for the GOP to run against Pelosi.

But there's also Schumer, Obama, and -- I'm absolutely certain she'll be unable to avoid saying stupid things that a good candidate can use -- Hillary Clinton.

Khesanh 0802 said...

It will all be dependent on turnout. Big Mike is right. Fabi has the campaign secret though. I suspect Trump will be campaigning vigorously and if his numbers remain up he will be extremely effective. A poll today is close to worthless other than it shows a welcome trend.

Fabi said...

Thank you, Khesanh 0802 -- Trump loves the campaign trail and the left has never encountered such a force. I expect the Republicans will hold both chambers, but with tightened margins.

wildswan said...

The Democrats have been recruiting Army, Navy, Marine veterans who are family men or women. Many have been in combat; all have served in Iraq or Afghanistan. These vets would vote the straight Pelosi ticket if elected but when running they don't seem like Democrats. Like that guy in the Missouri election in 2016 who could strip a gun. So that is what we face. It's very hard to challenge the sincerity of a combat vet's desire to serve this country, especially when he is accompanied by cute little children he obviously cares about. But, if elected, this particular group of vets would sincerely think it right to just do what General Pelosi orders. Impeach Trump, end fracking, close pipelines, regulate business out of existence - YES SIR!! So thank you for your service but no need for you to go into The Swamp.

Big Mike said...

I expect the Republicans will hold both chambers, but with tightened margins.

@Fabi, the margin in the Senate is 51-49, counting McCain and Flake among the 51. There isn't a whole lot of room to get closer.

Bay Area Guy said...

This is encouraging political news, and I do NOT want to be a Debbie Downer.

But.

Historically, opposition parties kick butt in mid-term, Congressional elections (1994, 2006, 2010).

If the GOP holds the House, Trump avoids impeachment.

If the GOP holds the Senate, many more federal judges get appointed.

I like this and wish for this. But I am cautious of wishful thinking.

I didn't vote for Trump in the primaries, did vote for him in the General, and have been hugely surprised and impressed with his first year in office. The tax cut was critical.

But, the leftwing forces are highly arrayed and unified against him. The swamp has a lot of monsters. The Jeff Flake GOP types don't help. Mitt Romney, future Senator from Utah, doesn't help either.

It would be huge for Trump: (1) to win in 2016, (2) to help the GOP retain Congress in 2018, and (3) to win re-election in 2020. Historically, though, this type of trifecta is rare. If given a choice, I'd prefer No 3 over No.2

My 2 cents. I could be wrong.

Darrell said...

I think we will see every Democrat in this country committing suicide.
It will be really sad.

Fabi said...

Not much, Big Mike, but I count Pence as well.

Lewis Wetzel said...

If the Dems make big gains in November the lesson that they will learn is that expressing open contempt & hatred for Trump voters (49% of voters) pays.
The people who passionately hate half of their countrymen & see them as no better than nazis will be in charge. That's not good, unless you really believe that half of your fellow citizens are no better than nazis.

Bay Area Guy said...

Fellow deplorables need to open up wallets and help the GOP (even the GOPe weasels) defend the House and Senate.

bolivar di griz said...

Some things to consider:

https://mobile.twitter.com/PoliticalShort/status/963912814313140224/video/1

When you wonder if something could be done,

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLastRefuge2/status/963903848929775617?p=v

Bruce Hayden said...

“Fellow deplorables need to open up wallets and help the GOP (even the GOPe weasels) defend the House and Senate.”

Note - deep pockets on the Dem side have already committed to big bucks. Tom Steyer, for one, has committed quite a bit already. Republicans tend to have an advantage with smaller contributions, while the Democrats make it up with mega donors. Best thing, I think, is to make sure that the Dems can’t swamp their opponents with large dollar bundles and donors.

James K said...

Remember of the 33 Senate seats up, only 8 are Republicans. Some of the Dems are in states won by Trump. It won't be so easy for the Dems to take over the Senate.

Bruce Hayden said...

I am cautiously optimistic here. In the districts where the Dems would have to win, impeaching Trump is not nearly as popular as in their secure districts. No doubt, Pelosi has a lot of slavering Trump impeachers in her district. But for much of the country, the potential for impeachment is more likely to help the Republicans than the Democrats. Trump won, fair and square. A do-over by the sore losers offends our idea of fairness, for many of us. And esp the Trump voters who would have to either switch sides, or stay home at a minimum for impeachment to work. And why impeach him? The tax cuts that put thousands of dollars in the pockets of millions of Americans? Immigration reform that puts Americans before illegal immigrants? (Do the Dems really think that they can get the Black community excited to support illegals - who take jobs from Blacks?) Keeping people with penises out of women’s bathrooms?

The other thing that should be helpful is that Trump will likely be out there campaigning. Much more effective throughout much of the country (esp the part that matters in this election) than Pelosi, Schumer, or, probably, any Democrat. And he has an amazing ability to drive the national dialogue. Moreover, he seems more Presidential every week. And is doing a decently good job at being President. And why are we going to impeach him? Because he treats? Because he beat Crooked Hillary, after she, and the DNC, cheated their asses off? For most of his voters he is doing a much better job than we expected.

Michael K said...

Left Bank of the Charles: "Things will pick up for Democrats after Paul Manafort’s tax evasion trial."

The Trump kids hired Manafort who did nothing and was a terrible mistake.

Read Lewandowski's book. They thought he knew about conventions and delegates but he knew nothing. His "experience" was 20 years out of date plus he is a crook.

All the charges against him have nothing to do with Trump.

cubanbob said...

A lot can happen in nine months. So the Republicans shouldn't get cocky but rather get equally jazzed up, contribute and most of all vote. Still, it's hard to imagine that the issues that jazz the Democrat base are going to jazz up the independents and Trump Democrats in districts that could go either way. The Democrats had eight years under Obama to cut their taxes but they didn't and all of them voted against the tax rate reductions they are enjoying now under Trump and the Republicans. Telling voters the reductions they are enjoying are crumbs is insulting. Promoting illegal aliens over Americans isn't going to endear them to vote Democrat. Will the Democrats ever get that the issues that motivate their base are at best minimally important to most of America?
The Russian collusion nonsense will ultimately get them nowhere but instead at best make them look really stupid and at worst might get a number of them indicted. A few social media ads and bunch of internet trolls didn't get sixty three million people to vote for Donald Trump. Hillary with her elitism, arrogance, stupidity and general criminal taint managed to do this all on her own. And mind you, she lost to the only Republican the Democrats were convinced they couldn't possibly lose to. So the Democrats are going to get even bigger vote turnouts in the districts they are going to win. The Hillary 2016 campaign strategy. It doesn't appear they learned from 2016.

Guildofcannonballs said...

"As Glenn Reynolds often reminds us, Don't get cocky, kid. If opinion polls could be trusted, we'd be in the second year of the Hillary! Presidency."

Mitt Romney wasn't cocky and Obama and Trump were/are. Adjust.

Kid Rock has a song entitled "Cocky" folks 'round here could learn from.

cubanbob said...

Mitt Romney wasn't cocky and Obama and Trump were/are. Adjust."

Mitt Romney fought like a milquetoast. Trump fights like a Democrat.

Comanche Voter said...

Only poll that counts is the one in the voting booth. Ask Hillary "I can't figure out why I'm not 50 points ahead of this bozo" Clinton.

Roy Lofquist said...

The recent Democratic effort to win by elections is their Battle of the Bulge. Like the last German offensive of WWII they have thrown in everything they've got to stem the tide. The DNC is in debt. The party co-chairs, Perez and Ellison, are terrible fund raisers. They depend on large dollar donations, far more than the Republicans. Are the big donors just nice better government guys? Hell, no. They're buying themselves some politicians and minority party politicians aren't worth all that much. Besides, Trump whipped their asses with one hand tied behind his back (he spent half of what they did).

This graph provides some historical perspective:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Combined--Control_of_the_U.S._House_of_Representatives_-_Control_of_the_U.S._Senate.png

I see 40 or 50 years of Republican dominance ahead.

Original Mike said...

”[Inga] had a hissy fit the other day, claimed everybody was ruining everything by injecting politics into things that had nothing to do with politics - while bashing Pence in an Olympics thread.

She then huffed off and claimed never to return until Mueller comes forward with his findings and then Trump is impeached.”


This is predictable. The way the Russian “investigation” is turning against the Dems, you had to know she was going to blame it all on us and strategically disappear at some point.

I take it as a sign that it’s the beginning of the end.

The Godfather said...

@Guildof cannonballs: You say "Mitt Romney wasn't cocky and Obama and Trump were/are." I don't think that word means what you think it means. The phrase, "don't get cocky kid" comes from the original Star Wars, spoken by Han Solo when Luke has suceeded in shooting down an enemy ship. In context, "cocky" means over confident. In the last election, it wasn't Trump who was over confident: He worked up to the last minute. It was Hillary who believed that she had the election in the bag because Trump could never breach her "blue wall": she's the one who got cocky. And she lost.

It's good to be confident. It's even better to convey confidence. But it's best to run just a little scared.

Big Mike said...

I take it as a sign that it’s the beginning of the end.

Don’t get cocky, kid.

Guildofcannonballs said...

I think Gandolph the Grey telling that gigantic demon "You Shall Not Pass!!!" was an overconfident, cocky attitude. Suited me just fine.

Trump running in the first place was cocky and partially why he is so bated,as he cockily knew he would be.

How about Charles "I think it would be fun to run a newspaper" Kane, wasn't he cocky? Sure in the movie he loses, but in real life Bezos and Slim are competent, cocky winners, like Trump.

Yancey Ward said...

The Democrats made a huge mistake not kicking Pelosi out of the minority leadership position, but the truth is that it was probably a mistake that was impossible to avoid- the party membership in the House is as far left as it has ever been. After the 2010 and 2014 elections, there were almost no members left that could be called right of center Democrat, and few true centrists. The only people likely to get the votes to oust Pelosi are just as nuts as she is.

deepelemblues said...

The general trend of events will have to shift in a rather large way for Republicans to not gain seats in the senate.

If trump is within a point or three of 50% approval I don't see how democrats take the house if they continue to try to make the campaign all about being repudiating the president.

Enthusiasm is 9 months away from turnout. The democrats are broke. Tom steyer and co.'s mountains of money are going to be necessary just for the party to run a regular midterm campaign. The monetary effort needed to swing multiple hotly contested seats? I don't know about that.

If the economy keeps on keeping on republican enthusiasm will rise. Trump will start holding his massive rallies sometime in the summer and keep them up through election day. Democrats need some yuuuuge anti trump thing to happen in the next 9 months to stop the worm from turning like it has been for the past month. Something independent of themselves. They've spent almost 2 years venting their spleens and it hasnt worked. They need something more than trump hate. That something more could happen in the next 9 months, sure it could. It has to. Or they're going to get another electoral embarassment.

Tim in Vermont said...

Democrats have been winning all of the small elections, so expect them to have a turnout advantage that these polls can’t measure. They are counting the days until even small elections when they can go in and vote against Trump. I expect them to over-perform.

Tim in Vermont said...

I think more voters have their eye wide open and that bodes stormy waters for Republicans. - R/V

That’s what I mean about lack of mindfulness.

Curious George said...

The Godfather said...
@Guildof cannonballs: You say "Mitt Romney wasn't cocky and Obama and Trump were/are." I don't think that word means what you think it means. The phrase, "don't get cocky kid" comes from the original Star Wars, spoken by Han Solo when Luke has suceeded in shooting down an enemy ship.

The line was actually "Great, kid. Don't get cocky." Then again Bogart never said "Play it again Sam" in Casablanca. Both were better than the actual.

Gk1 said...

Was there anything more precious than trying to predict elections 10 months ahead? Particularly by a bunch of partisan assholes in the media that got it so spectacularly wrong last year?