January 2, 2018

"The Islamic Republic is entering a period of prolonged transition where it will no longer be able to proffer a theocracy with a human face."

"The reformists who once exhilarated the public with their quest to harmonize Islamic injunctions with democratic norms have long been cast aside. Rouhani, who was to refurbish the regime’s battered legitimacy in the aftermath of the Green Revolution, has become a victim of the rising expectations that he cynically stimulated. The gap between state and society has never been wider, as the public seeks a responsive democracy while the theocracy’s diminishing cadre insist on even more repressive and isolated government. Revolutionaries who eschew reform and condemn pragmatism as sinful diversion from the path of God are destined for the dustbin of history. In the end, Iran’s revolution is an impossible one, as it created a theocracy that cannot reform itself and accommodate the aspirations of its restless and youthful citizens. The tragedy of Ali Khamenei is that in consolidating his revolution, he is ensuring the eventual demise of his regime."

From "The Islamic Republic of Iran Is Doomed/But things are likely to get much, much worse before they—eventually—get better" by Ray Takeyh in Politico.

34 comments:

Bob said...

Most revolutions disintegrate when the revolutionary generations die. Our revolution didn't -- one of the really remarkable (and fortunate) things about the U.S.

Mountain Maven said...

Why are the protests not covered by the MSM!?! Not even Fox, wsj, drudge..

EDH said...

Doesn't the Politico writer Ray Takeyh know the Team Obama thinks he should be quiet?

Trump should have Tweeted a picture of himself with a piece of tape across his mouth with the word "Obama" written on it like all those pretentious liberal posers whenever they wish to feel "repressed."

Gahrie said...

The key to the Iranian protests will be the support of the security forces and the military. As long as they are willing to slaughter college age kids the Mullahs are safe. That huge pile of cash we gave the Mullahs a couple of years ago buys lots of toys for the security forces and the military.

n.n said...

The time is right for a revolution to establish a constitutional republic that reconciles religious/moral, natural, and personal imperatives. As well as, establishes an administrative state to provider oversight of public affairs.

the protests not covered by the MSM!?! Not even Fox, wsj, drudge

They're preoccupied with their priorities: a revisit of a regional or global "reset."

Ken B said...

Tragedy?

Jupiter said...

Islam is a sterile Hate Cult. It destroys what it touches.

Achilles said...

Just like Castro and Chavez the Mullahs are hero's of the left. And Mugabe and Stalin and Mao...

Nobody did more for Pol Pot than the anti-war leftists. All democrats had to do was abide by the peace terms Nixon arranged in Vietnam. They couldn't even do that and millions of people died.

A pattern emerges.

narciso said...

It never had a human face, Mr. Takekh, he was a long time acolyte of the sepahocracy.

Achilles said...

To add to Jupiter's comment above, it must be noted that every Muslim run country in the world has committed genocide/ethnic cleansing. Every. Single. One.

As Drago would say, Only every single one though.

What kind of religion/culture consistently wipes out at least one minority population in it's midst? And why do the leftist's cheer for them?

Diogenes of Sinope said...

Iran's evil religious dictator will order his minions to gun Iranian citizens down. Sadly, there will be no successful revolution in Iran.

narciso said...

There is a point at which foolishness becomes knavery


Http://e-ir.info/2012/08/18/the-iranian-nuclear-program-realist-vs-constructivist-models

narciso said...

My case rests

http://lalkar.org/article/1183/irans-struggle-against-imperialist-demonisation

Michael K said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
1775OGG said...

The Islamic State does have a very human face, just like the face of every other dictator in world history. Each dictator is, was, all are too human, lusting for power, a disregard for lives other than the leader's, and a desire for total control over the poor begotten subjects, who in fact mean nothing to the leader as long as the subjects obey.

The Islamic State is the very human face of the terrible evil done to others. North Korea is another such example of that evil.

rhhardin said...

Islam wants perfection in the next world. It fucks up this one.

Oso Negro said...

We need to be cheerful agents of sinful diversion.

Michael K said...

I doubt they can survive. Eventually these regimes reach a tipping point.

Ask Georges Danton.

Riding the tiger is hazardous to their health.

1775OGG said...

While true about Danton, also ask Ragspierre that same question; oopsie, that should be "Robespierre".

David Begley said...

Just tonight Rachael Maddow claimed the protests were about economics. What a liar.

gbarto said...

Yes, but it took 70 years for the Soviets to fall. I wish these folks success in less time but optimism takes time.

Mr. Majestyk said...

Yes, it is interesting how the Soviet Union -- a repressive regime if there ever was one -- collapsed with relatively little blood shed. But the People's Republic of China opted to slaughter thousands of peaceful demonstators to maintain the position of the Chinese Communist Party. Why some vicious regimes collapse and others are willing to do whatever is necessary to stay in power is a mystery, at least to me.

YoungHegelian said...

The fundamental problem with Ayatollah Khomeini's revolution is that such Shi'ite political activism ran counter not only to the history of the Qom & Najaf schools of Shi'ism, but also to Persian history in general. Persian history goes back a damn long time, way before the arrival of Islam carried by Arab conquerors in 637–651. There is national memory of the glory of the various pre-Islamic Persian empires, memories remembered even in such simple things as the common naming of boys Darius, Cyrus, or Xerxes. There was always in Persian history an appreciation for music, & the decorative & plastic arts, an appreciation that the Sunnis to the west of them saw as blasphemous. At least one western Islamic scholar called the Khomeini revolution the "Sunni-ization of Iranian Islam".

I'm amazed that the Khomeini revolution has lasted as long as it has, considering how opposed it is to the historical spirit of the Iranian nation.**

** Strict Islam is against the historical spirit of the Persian people. Seeking imperial hegemony over their neighbors is most certainly not. Don't expect a secular Iran to decide to give up its search for nuclear weapons.

Drago said...

David Begley: "Just tonight Rachael Maddow claimed the protests were about economics. What a liar."

Well, she has to be right. After all LLR Chuck called her brilliant.

HoodlumDoodlum said...

Balderdash.
President Peace Prize and his Admin repeatedly assured us that those people are reasonable moderates.
It was important that we keep those reasonable moderates happy with us and we had to be willing to bear any cost to not upset those living moderates. The fates of, literally, millions of people in the region were inconsequential compared to the sublime moderation of those rulers.

To say now that they are hard line theological tyrants willing to use violence to oppress their citizens! Just hogwash.

MikeD said...

"The tragedy of Ali Khamenei is that in consolidating his revolution, he is ensuring the eventual demise of his regime." Well, he can call it a tragedy but, if his end world Shi'ite regime meets it demise most would call that a blessing!

narciso said...

True, but as someone else pointed the junior shah, also rule for 38 years (from the time reza shah was deposed for his axis sympathies,

Ken B said...

Mr Majestyk
Mystery to me too but I think part of it was Ronald Reagan. His "evil empire" speech had, according to people in the Soviet apparatus, a profound effect. They knew he was right.

Mac McConnell said...

Dictators don't fall when they tighten the screws, they topple when they liberalize, like the Shah.

narciso said...

Except ceaucescu certain want liberalizing.

Roger Sweeny said...

It never had a human face, Mr. Takekh, he was a long time acolyte of the sepahocracy.

Google returns nothing for sepahocracy. It asks, "Do you mean pathocracy?" "Definition: pathocracy (n). A system of government created by a small pathological minority that takes control over a society of normal people (from Political Ponerology: A Science on the Nature of Evil Adjusted for Political Purposes, by Andrew Lobaczewski)"

Roger Sweeny said...

Except ceaucescu certain want liberalizing.

But Gorbachev was. If the Soviet government hadn't fallen, Ceaucescu might have been saved like the Hungarian rulers in 1956 or the Czechoslovak ones in 1968.

MB said...

I think the US left-wing has backed itself into a corner. According to its own "narrative" that Trump is Hitler, it has no way to make concessions to Trump or his right-wing allies and survive (I'm curious if it was the same under Reagan or it's something they learned after the fall of the Berlin wall).

The intensity has been permanently turned to 11. It's all impeachment, all the time. The only legitimate opposition is even farther left, namely Sanders and "classical" socialism, following Corbyn's model.

So they cannot let themselves become aware of anything else while this is going on. There is no more room for nuance in the picture. If the revolt in Iran looks about to provide Trump with a diplomatic victory, then it cannot be allowed to succeed or even exist (i.e. it'll be erased from the books). It's as simple as that. Trump must always be an isolated, goofy, mentally deranged loser, in every possible way and on every possible issue.

This will leave sequels in the US left's worldview even after Trump is out of office. People, institutions, and nations will be judged by whether they "resisted" Trump and helped bring him down or not.

Michael K said...

David Goldman has an excellent column in the Asia Times today,

There are three big crises. One is water and the riots began in cities affected.

Two is corruption and three is the pension crisis.

It's worth reading.