Althouse: "Counting is under way in a referendum that will decide whether the UK remains a member of the European Union."

June 23, 2016

"Counting is under way in a referendum that will decide whether the UK remains a member of the European Union."

"There is no exit poll - so the millions who cast a ballot will have to wait until results start coming in to find out how the country voted.... The referendum result... should be known by breakfast time on Friday...."

So in the UK, people are supposed to just go to bed on election night and find out what happens the next day. The election is not a TV show to be watched all night like a sporting event. What fun is that?!

158 comments:

William said...: Spoiler alert: The markets are up substantially in anticipation that Britain will remain. Britain will stay.; 6/23/16, 5:11 PM
J. Farmer said...: After last week's brief moment of optimism, I've depressingly settled on a "Remain" win as the likeliest outcome. If I were British, I'd happily cast a ballot for "out." But even from a purely self-interested American point of view, it was ridiculous for the administration to support the "Remain" camp. We should be trying to blow up the EU, not preserve it.; 6/23/16, 5:13 PM
Original Mike said...: Why they would want to abrogate their sovereignty is beyond me.; 6/23/16, 5:16 PM
mockturtle said...: A friend of mine, a businesswoman who lives in London and Prague, is very keen for the UK to stay. She says it will ruin both the UK and the EU economies if Brexit passes.

My late husband, British to the core, would probably have opted to leave. I read that the Queen has voiced [semi-privately, anyway] her preference to leave the EU.; 6/23/16, 5:18 PM
cubanbob said...: This is how elections should be. No results until all the polls are closed including far away places.

Even if the Out wins, it is still up to Parliament to actually vote to vote to leave. And that probably isn't a sure thing when almost all of the parties in the UK want to stay in. Still Farmer is probably right, a lot of voters probably got cold feet at the last moment, especially those in the Greater London area.; 6/23/16, 5:18 PM
J. Farmer said...: @mockturtle:

" She says it will ruin both the UK and the EU economies if Brexit passes."

That's been the standard scare argument for years now. Amazingly, though, Europe manages to trade with non-European countries all over the world without being in a political union. The UK really is caught between Atlanticism to its left and continentalism to its right.; 6/23/16, 5:25 PM
Gahrie said...: The England I knew and loved died the day they opened the Chunnel.; 6/23/16, 5:25 PM
Unknown said...: "The election is not a TV show to be watched all night like a sporting event. What fun is that?!

All night election specials on all major UK TV channels including cable to show results as they come in with talking heads analysing ad-nauseum in-between.

Western European countries do the same.

The big difference is that election periods prior to voting is typically 6 weeks. The UK EU Referendum was 90 days.; 6/23/16, 5:27 PM
dreams said...: CNBC is providing live coverage tonight beginning at 12:00 am. If I'm still awake and not sleepy, I might watch some of it.; 6/23/16, 5:34 PM
Yancey Ward said...: While I never expected Exit to win, I also knew the vote literally didn't matter. Exit would have to win 60% plus to have any chance of getting Parliament to actually withdraw, and even then it would have been stalled endlessly for years with several attempts at a revote. Also, given how close it looked to be winning just before the MP was murdered, you can bet that there will never be another referendum on the issue.; 6/23/16, 5:34 PM
J. Farmer said...: Britain voting to remain in would be a wonderful opportunity for us to start dismantling NATO and extracting ourselves from that sanguinary continent.; 6/23/16, 5:38 PM
readering said...: Looks like Obama was right to speak up.; 6/23/16, 5:45 PM
dreams said...: This is their best chance to reclaim some of their freedom, though it will cause short term pain so say the people who I respect.; 6/23/16, 5:46 PM
Original Mike said...: "Looks like Obama was right to speak up"

By "speak up", you mean "threaten".; 6/23/16, 5:48 PM
Michael said...: I predict a stay vote, a close stay vote that will signal the flattening or end of the European project's trajectory. France is talking about a referendum of its own. Others may follow. Thank Cameron either way. It will not be a triumph for the EU and the celebrations of the bureaucrats early tomorrow in Brussels will be followed by hangover and then sobriety as they see the writing on the wall.; 6/23/16, 5:52 PM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: Ironically, a Remain vote will be a victory for UKIP. If Britain voted for exit, UKIP would lose it's main reason for existence. If it's at all close, UKIP gains legitimacy and will continue to grow. The Tories are boxed, and I would bet we'll see another referendum within five years.; 6/23/16, 5:58 PM
bagoh20 said...: Don't they have a ginger hanging around who can write a good declaration?; 6/23/16, 6:10 PM
Viking In Winter said...: My view is that if Obama and Soros both want the Brits to remain part of the EU then I am definitely for Exit.; 6/23/16, 6:20 PM
Bill, Republic of Texas said...: I agree almost completely with Cracker. Except the revote in 5 years. The next crisis will see multiple countries voting for Eurosceptic parties and leaving the EU.; 6/23/16, 6:30 PM
mockturtle said...: Looks like the very early results show Exit slightly ahead of Stay. :-); 6/23/16, 6:33 PM
Michael K said...: "especially those in the Greater London area."

Which is a combination of young Europeans who came to London to escape French and EU employment and tax policies, plus Muslims who are all on the Dole.; 6/23/16, 6:37 PM
Lyle said...: The American Interest is live blogging Brexit.

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/06/23/live-blogging-the-brexit/

So for shock results in Newcastle and Sunderland (blue collar northeast England), where Newcastle votes to remain, but with higher leave votes than expected and Sunderland votes to Leave with higher votes than expected for Leave.

Leave is ahead nationally with 5 out of 300+ polls reporting.; 6/23/16, 7:03 PM
Birkel said...: I think it's funny that people think the votes will be more important in this process than the people counting the votes.

All of the people counting the votes are voting Remain.; 6/23/16, 7:05 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: The UK should just expand its commonwealth and create an Anglospheric "super state" with us, Canada, and Australia, etc., instead.

But they're generally practical people. Count me in as another one who has it on good evidence from another Brit that leaving is economic malpractice.; 6/23/16, 7:06 PM
commoncents said...: Brexit Live Streaming - Sky News - EU: In Or Out?

http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2016/06/brexit-live-stream-sky-news-live-eu-in.html; 6/23/16, 7:09 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Rhythm and Balls:

"The UK should just expand its commonwealth and create an Anglospheric "super state" with us, Canada, and Australia, etc., instead."

God no. We should be trying to disentangle ourselves from these supranational cobwebs, not looking to create more.; 6/23/16, 7:13 PM
buwaya said...: " the Chunnel'

One of the many of the worlds problems that can be fixed with a little dynamite.; 6/23/16, 7:23 PM
buwaya said...: "I think it's funny that people think the votes will be more important in this process than the people counting the votes."

I think it funny that anyone thinks the British will actually leave no matter what the referendum says. Parliament isn't for leaving.; 6/23/16, 7:25 PM
buwaya said...: "If Britain voted for exit, UKIP would lose it's main reason for existence."

No, the opposite. Because the referendum is likely to be taken as a suggestion. Actual power is something else. The result of this will be political leverage.; 6/23/16, 7:27 PM
buwaya said...: Leaving is looking good at the moment - early returns.

From the Telegraph -

The party's over [ at the Funky Monkey ] in Brussels

Matthew Holehouse, in Brussels, says things have turned sour at the Funky Monkey bar.

The party's over in Brussels. The Funky Monkey, an Irish pub next to the European Commission HQ, had been packed when polls shut at 10pm, and officials were in high spirits as Gibraltar declared at 96 per cent for in.

But as Remain were dealt two heavy blows in Sunderland and Newcastle, the mood suddenly turned sour. "F---!" shouted one official. Others had tears in their eyes and headed for the door. At half past one local time, the TVs were turned off, and staff trudged home. Over the road, lights were burning all over the Berlaymont HQ.

------At 10.30am Donald Tusk, Jean-Claude Juncker and Mark Rutte will meet to digest what it all means for Europe.; 6/23/16, 7:30 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: We should be trying to disentangle ourselves from these supranational cobwebs, not looking to create more.

They're coming, whether you like them or not. In South America, in Africa, ASEAN, etc. Necessary continent-wide political blocs in the age of globalized trade. The Anglosphere might as well unite, as well. We cover many more land masses, for one, and have more in common than these "other/foreign" agglomerators that you apparently fear so much. Unite or die is as true today as it was during the Revolution or for Sparta and Athens. You'd better choose with whom you'd like to join before they choose you.; 6/23/16, 7:32 PM
Michael said...: Bank stocks were all hardyhar today premised on a stay vote. I think the implications of economic ruin for the UK with a leave vote are overstated. The huge administrative burdens imposed by Brussels are a larger anchor on UK prosperity than generally recognized. The toffs are for stay because their bread is buttered in The City and they like their European connections. They have scared the yobs mightily that the sky will fall if the exit. Good times.; 6/23/16, 7:38 PM
buwaya said...: I suggest Frederick Forsyth's (the "Odessa File", "Day of the Jackal" etc.) article -
http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/frederick-forsyth/651377/Brexit-referendum-EU-never-meant-to-be-democracy-says-Frederick-Forsyth

On the nature of the EU. Forsyth is an interesting sort. He was more or less there working the EU beat as a journalist and has an idea of why it went wrong.; 6/23/16, 7:40 PM
buwaya said...: The US equivalent would be the Texit. For much the same reasons.; 6/23/16, 7:44 PM
buwaya said...: I mean Forsyth was working the EU beat as a journalist when it came together, he was in at the birth so to speak.; 6/23/16, 7:45 PM
mockturtle said...: @buwaya http://www.express.co.uk/comment/columnists/frederick-forsyth/651377/Brexit-referendum-EU-never-meant-to-be-democracy-says-Frederick-Forsyth

Powerful!; 6/23/16, 7:49 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Rhythm and Balls:

"In South America, in Africa, ASEAN, etc. Necessary continent-wide political blocs in the age of globalized trade."

What are the examples in South America and Africa? ASEAN exists primarily because of the country's concern over China. They are relatively small nations and even little choice but to band together if they want to avoid being played off of each other. And even there is nowhere near the level of political coordination between ASEAN countries as there is between EU countries. The USA is already a continent-wide power. The EU's primary motive is leverage against the Russians to the east and the Americans to the west. A US/Canada political union might make some kind of sense, but I'd probably be against that too.; 6/23/16, 7:51 PM
Lyle said...: The Texit ain't happening. It would be the end of the United States. Texas is Luke Skywalker and will help lead the rebellion. Wisconsin is maybe Princess Lea.; 6/23/16, 7:52 PM
mockturtle said...: Yes, Texas is the only state, AFAIK, that has the legal right to secede, on which statehood was contingent.; 6/23/16, 7:52 PM
Lyle said...: Remain will have to do strong in London to prevail, it's being reported.; 6/23/16, 7:55 PM
buwaya said...: "And even there is nowhere near the level of political coordination between ASEAN countries as there is between EU countries'

Barely any at all, and not even a hint of foreign control of domestic policies. There is nothing like the EU anywhere.; 6/23/16, 7:57 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Genuinely exciting coverage on Sky news. I am pro Brexit, not because I care much about this issue but because it should guarantee a Scottish exit from Great Britain, which I do care about. Free the Scots.

Scotland in the EU and free of the English should do quite well, like Ireland.; 6/23/16, 8:05 PM
Joe said...: The UK should just expand its commonwealth and create an Anglospheric "super state" with us, Canada, and Australia, etc., instead.

The US is a defacto member of the Commonwealth.

In the end, Europe needs the UK more than the UK needs Europe. The PIIGS, especially, want UK cash.; 6/23/16, 8:07 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: What are the examples in South America and Africa?

UNASUR and the AU.; 6/23/16, 8:08 PM
buwaya said...: UNASUR is a talking-shop, as the British would say.; 6/23/16, 8:11 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: They are relatively small nations and even little choice but to band together if they want to avoid being played off of each other.

That doesn't mean that they aren't creating a new political reality wherein the global trend is bigger blocs to compete against India, China and Russia.

And even there is nowhere near the level of political coordination between ASEAN countries as there is between EU countries.

The EU started out the same way, as the EEC.

The USA is already a continent-wide power. The EU's primary motive is leverage against the Russians to the east and the Americans to the west.

Their motives are varied and diverse and change along with the global challenges and threats. They started out as an economic union to prevent the nationalization of coal and steel that allowed Nazi Germany to ravage the continent, and grew into something greater than that.; 6/23/16, 8:13 PM
Lyle said...: From the American Interest:

"Bitter recriminations already breaking out in Labour party about poor showing for Remain in traditional Labour areas. Shadow cabinet member Chris Bryant, seeing Ed Miliband (the Labour leader who lost the 2015 election) on a big screen being interviewed, says, “I might go and punch him because he’s a t***** and he left the party in the state it’s in.”; 6/23/16, 8:14 PM
rehajm said...: The huge administrative burdens imposed by Brussels are a larger anchor on UK prosperity than generally recognized

Imagine how bad things would be if Brussels attacked individual industries and/or individuals as the cause of every problem instead of demonstrating general bureaucratic malaise.; 6/23/16, 8:15 PM
rehajm said...: Wisconsin is maybe Princess Lea.

Wisconsin is Watto.; 6/23/16, 8:16 PM
buwaya said...: The pound just crashed again. Yes this is exciting isn't it?; 6/23/16, 8:21 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Rhythm and Balls:

"That doesn't mean that they aren't creating a new political reality wherein the global trend is bigger blocs to compete against India, China and Russia."

Well, they are not that new, after all. The Delian League was an attempt by independent Greek city-states to counter the threat posed by Persia. And that ended in Athenian hegemony and eventually empire. Nothing like the political/economic integration of Europe is necessary in other regions. Continent-wide political look quite unstable to me, as the resurgence of nationalist parties across Europe have revealed.

"...and grew into something greater than that."

I agree with that. I'm just saying I think we should try to arrest that growth, not encourage it.; 6/23/16, 8:21 PM
J. Farmer said...: @AReasonableMan:

"Scotland in the EU and free of the English should do quite well, like Ireland."

I don't think I have an opinion on this one way or another, but out of curiosity why do you think the Scotts would do better with Brussels than with London?; 6/23/16, 8:23 PM
J. Farmer said...: @buwaya:

"The pound just crashed again. Yes this is exciting isn't it?"

Haha. It's almost as if there was some kind of floating exchange rate mechanism at work here.; 6/23/16, 8:24 PM
buwaya said...: Hmm - someplace big for Remain came in, the totals have flipped.; 6/23/16, 8:27 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Two to one to remain in Glasgow but a large number sat on their hands, which diminishes the impact of the Scots pro-EU sentiment.; 6/23/16, 8:27 PM
buwaya said...: Ah, no, its flipped back.; 6/23/16, 8:28 PM
buwaya said...: And flipped again. Its going to be a bumpy night.; 6/23/16, 8:29 PM
Lyle said...: Wisconsin is Watto

I would have said Vermont. Bernie totally looks like Watto.; 6/23/16, 8:30 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: J. Farmer said...
I don't think I have an opinion on this one way or another, but out of curiosity why do you think the Scotts would do better with Brussels than with London?

Their competitive position versus the English should improve, particularly if the EU is feeling vindictive. At the moment they are Brooklyn to an English Manhattan.; 6/23/16, 8:32 PM
buwaya said...: The pound is down 5% so far today. The currency traders are going to remember this.; 6/23/16, 8:34 PM
Michael said...: ARM

Had Scotland exited the UK at their referendum they would have gone stone broke. Their vaunted N.Sea oil which every Scot is taught from childhood is their birthright and which fuels the entire economy of the evil south collapsed. Scotland has no possible way to sustain itself and its lavish social payments without the south. A "free" Scotland does not mean what you think it means.; 6/23/16, 8:36 PM
bagoh20 said...: Isn't it always the situation that separating from the larger entity and going out on your own is "dangerous", "foolish", "risky", etc. It's also the usual path to expanded freedom, self-direction, prosperity, and discovering your potential. I say go for it Brits. Be British, be proud, be free, and especially if every loser who easily and usually fears such adventures tells you not to. Don't look back, Don't look for approval. Don't forget who you have been. Is that still who you are, or just another France with bad food?; 6/23/16, 8:36 PM
Michael said...: Might be a good night to buy some of my favorite English shirts. Wonder how AmEx will set the GBP in the middle of this night?; 6/23/16, 8:39 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Michael said...
Scotland has no possible way to sustain itself and its lavish social payments without the south.

And, you think this is a bad thing?; 6/23/16, 8:40 PM
bagoh20 said...: Buy Pounds! Pounds of pounds if you can.; 6/23/16, 8:41 PM
buwaya said...: "And, you think this is a bad thing?"

Good point.; 6/23/16, 8:41 PM
Michael said...: ARM

I think it would be an unexpected thing.; 6/23/16, 8:43 PM
Michael said...: ARM

The EU would look at picking up Scotland like a cold Greece.; 6/23/16, 8:44 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: Continent-wide political look quite unstable to me, as the resurgence of nationalist parties across Europe have revealed.

Which is also not new. We even have our own "local control" groups in our very own Congress, as well. And before that, "states rights".

"...and grew into something greater than that."

I agree with that. I'm just saying I think we should try to arrest that growth, not encourage it.

Why? If they want to build a United States of Europe then good for them.; 6/23/16, 8:44 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: Isn't it always the situation that separating from the larger entity and going out on your own is "dangerous", "foolish", "risky", etc. It's also the usual path to expanded freedom, self-direction, prosperity, and discovering your potential. I say go for it Brits. Be British, be proud, be free, and especially if every loser who easily and usually fears such adventures tells you not to. Don't look back, Don't look for approval. Don't forget who you have been. Is that still who you are, or just another France with bad food?

Wherein Bags likens a collapsed economy as one of those fun things that just happen to come along with "national entrepreneurialism".; 6/23/16, 8:46 PM
buwaya said...: Telegraph site is down.; 6/23/16, 8:47 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Rhythm and Balls:

"Why? If they want to build a United States of Europe then good for them."

Why would we encourage the creation and formation of a new great power rival right before our eyes?; 6/23/16, 8:49 PM
buwaya said...: Back up. 50/50 at 22% Oh well, time to do something useful.; 6/23/16, 8:50 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: Why would we encourage the creation and formation of a new great power rival right before our eyes?

Because our system of government is better than you apparently think it is and success is not a zero-sum game, you commie.; 6/23/16, 8:51 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: Michael said...
The EU would look at picking up Scotland like a cold Greece.

If there is a Brexit, the EU would take Scotland just to piss off the English. It would be worth the cost just in entertainment value. Which EU country do you imagine would vote against the Scots?

That popping sound you are hearing is the sound of the Economist's editors heads exploding.; 6/23/16, 8:51 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Rhythm and Balls:

"Because our system of government is better than you apparently think it is..."

I honestly have no idea what this statement means.

"...success is not a zero-sum game, you commie."

Tell that to Coke and Pepsi.; 6/23/16, 8:57 PM
Michael K said...: I'm going out tomorrow to buy some pounds to send to a friend in Britain who paid for a car to take my daughter to the airport two weeks ago when there was railroad strike. I have found it impossible to send 70 GBP by bank transfer for less than the same cost for the transaction. I'm just going to buy the currency and put it in an envelope. Hopefully a currency sniffing dog won't find it.

So I have a serious interest in what pounds will be worth tomorrow.; 6/23/16, 8:57 PM
J. Farmer said...: Wait, you're gonna go to your bank to buy foreign currency notes, or something like an airport currency exchange? What's wrong with Western Union or Monogram?; 6/23/16, 9:01 PM
Michael said...: ARM

Scotland would have to borrow the dues! Although knowing the Scots as I do they would probably be enthusiastic of having more rules to follow, more lines to wait in, more forms to complete.; 6/23/16, 9:02 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: Farmer: Always a bad idea to attribute buwaya responses to your direction. The guy is infinitely incoherent and deserves short, strident statements alone.

Read his 8:51 comment, and what it's responding to. The E.U. is an attempt at a United States of Europe, of sorts. He asserts that's a bad thing, which sounds like an attack against the American form of government.

I drink plenty of soda. I haven't had a Coke or a Pepsi in decades.; 6/23/16, 9:03 PM
Michael said...: Michael K

Now is your chance to learn bitcoin; 6/23/16, 9:04 PM
Lyle said...: Liverpool votes Remain by 58%, which is less than anticipated. Direction of travel in this referendum is with Leave.
Vince Cable, former UK business minister, says the question now is whether Remain votes in “cosmopolitan” London and Scotland are enough to see off “everywhere else” in the country.; 6/23/16, 9:04 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: Blogger AReasonableMan said...
If there is a Brexit, the EU would take Scotland just to piss off the English.

The Hanoverian Succession was a fraud and a sham!"Jacobites" ye calls them . . . I call 'em True Scotsmen! Chan eil tuil air nach tig traoghadh!; 6/23/16, 9:05 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Rhythm and Balls:

Farmer: Always a bad idea to attribute buwaya responses to your direction.

Honestly, I am confused (full disclosure: it could also be the Woodford Reserve). You quoted a question I asked, so I thought your statement was directed towards me.

"The E.U. is an attempt at a United States of Europe, of sorts. He asserts that's a bad thing, which sounds like an attack against the American form of government."

But there are important distinctions. For one, the USA began (other than our brief confederal) as a federal system to unite independent states. Those states were also quite linguistically and culturally coherent, unlike polyglot Europe. And also, the creation of the USA led to a huge war a few decades later that remains to this day the deadliest conflict our country has ever fought. I don't think saying that a United States of Europe is a bad idea is an "attack against the American form of government." I don't think the USA model is very reproducible. And we've basically had to use jurisprudence and precedence to avoid the inefficient mechanism of amending the constitution.; 6/23/16, 9:10 PM
Lewis Wetzel said...: The treaty that establishes a European constitution is 482 pages long.; 6/23/16, 9:10 PM
JackWayne said...: Odds to Remain just went to zero! Go Brexit!; 6/23/16, 9:14 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Lyle:

Liverpool votes Remain by 58%, which is less than anticipated.

The local constituency results and how they meet or violate expectations is quite interesting. Last I read on the Telegraph's site, Newcastle just barely voted Remain. They're in the northeast of the country near the Scottish border, and a much bigger Remain vote was expected.

My mood is slowly shifting to quiet optimism.; 6/23/16, 9:14 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: You quoted a question I asked...

I quoted a question someone else asked (unless you're using sock puppets here). Yes, that would be confusing.; 6/23/16, 9:15 PM
narciso said...: Vince Cable, was the wanker who pushed for the windfarm scam, part of Cameron's bad deal, not as bad as Baldwin/MacDonald but close,; 6/23/16, 9:15 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: And also, the creation of the USA led to a huge war a few decades later that remains to this day the deadliest conflict our country has ever fought.

Only because of slavery, which they don't have.

I don't think saying that a United States of Europe is a bad idea is an "attack against the American form of government."
I don't think the USA model is very reproducible.

That will be their decision. I don't see any reason to discourage them.

And we've basically had to use jurisprudence and precedence to avoid the inefficient mechanism of amending the constitution.

Yes, they have federal courts and judges deciding precedents, also.; 6/23/16, 9:18 PM
Paul said...: Do you really trust the British Government, the government that deems you as 'subjects', and is very much for staying in the EU, to be honest at counting the votes?; 6/23/16, 9:19 PM
narciso said...: right, the fact that the uk was the market for confederate cotton, that explains the css alabama, had nothing to do with it, read amanda foreman's world on fire, for the uk side of the civil war; 6/23/16, 9:24 PM
JackWayne said...: I saw someone earlier say that an Out vote is bad for UKIP but I believe this is completely wrong. Parliament will ignore the referendum and UKIP will pick up a lot of votes putting Labour in. The next cote after that should shatter the Conservative party.; 6/23/16, 9:25 PM
JackWayne said...: If Remain wins, the same scenario plays out. Either way, Cameron has destroyed the Conservative party.; 6/23/16, 9:27 PM
mockturtle said...: That popping sound you are hearing is the sound of the Economist's editors heads exploding.

Imploding, maybe.; 6/23/16, 9:27 PM
deepelemblues said...: Looks like Leave may just win. There might not be enough Remain strongholds left. Lower than expected turnout, this time of Remain voters, biting the pollsters yet again.; 6/23/16, 9:28 PM
Big Mike said...: As of 9:30 CDT "Leave" leads "Remain" by about 150,000 votes out of not quite 11 million counted so far. In England proper "Leave" leads by almost a half million votes but in Scotland "Remain" is about 450,000 votes ahead.

Those Scots. Those damned, kilt-wearing bastards.; 6/23/16, 9:30 PM
Beloved Commenter AReasonableMan said...: The Scottish National Party has played this perfectly. Percentage-wise the Scots voted strongly for the EU but in terms of turn-out they have underperformed, making Brexit possible. They are now perfectly positioned to leave GB and join the EU.; 6/23/16, 9:31 PM
JackWayne said...: Edward "Lonshanks" family will have something to say about that.; 6/23/16, 9:36 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Rhythm and Balls:

"I quoted a question someone else asked (unless you're using sock puppets here). Yes, that would be confusing."

I think you may have misread something somewhere. Here's what you quoted in your post at 8:51pm:

"Why would we encourage the creation and formation of a new great power rival right before our eyes?"

I am the one who asked that question. I asked it in a post at 8:49pm.; 6/23/16, 9:43 PM
buwaya said...: I can't tear my eyes away, damn these phones. Anyway, 51.6 Leave at 51% of the vote. All the British pundits saying it's done.; 6/23/16, 9:48 PM
Balfegor said...: Re: Jack Wayne:

If Remain wins, the same scenario plays out. Either way, Cameron has destroyed the Conservative party.

I think that's the main political theme this year, in America as well as the UK. Conservative politicians had a choice: they could acknowledge their voters' concerns and change their policies accordingly, or they could stay the course and criticise their voters as racist or nativist or fascist or whatever. They chose, and they chose poorly, so their parties are going to fall apart. Democracy doesn't look like violent mobs throwing rocks at police cars, or stormtroopers waiving foreign flags infiltrating Trump rallies, or Occupy protesters squatting on public property -- this is what democracy looks like. And these concerns aren't going to go away even if Remain wins.; 6/23/16, 9:50 PM
Lyle said...: It’s 3:45 AM in the UK and there’s a definite lull in the count now, with most of the leading politicians clearly having left to take a nap before the result.
Here’s an update on where we are:
41.9% reporting
Remain
48.9%
5,819,095 votes
Leave
51.1%
6,076,476 votes
ITV News psephologists predicting an 80 per cent likelihood that Leave will win this referendum.
Prof. John Curtis, BBC psephologist, is more cautious; says Leave now the favorites to be ahead by the end of the night but still too early to call.; 6/23/16, 9:52 PM
JackWayne said...: Any predictions on when Cameron will retire? There's a vote next year. I think he's gone before Labor Day.; 6/23/16, 9:52 PM
Michael said...: ARM

If Scotland were to leave there would not be a labor government in England for a thousand years. So maybe good all around, no?; 6/23/16, 9:53 PM
JackWayne said...: I saw that mentioned earlier. Scotland fucked themselves by voting to stay in Britain a year ago. They will not be allowed to vote again anytime soon. Labour will want to keep them in. The Conservative Party the same.; 6/23/16, 9:56 PM
eric said...: Scotland leaving and rejoining the EU would be good for the rest of England, not so good for Scotland.; 6/23/16, 9:56 PM
JackWayne said...: By the way, Zerohedge has the best coverage. You get the vote totals with the market activity. Gonna be a wild ride.; 6/23/16, 9:58 PM
eric said...: Market down 80 points now on the S&P futures market, which is huge.; 6/23/16, 10:00 PM
eric said...: Suddenly this whole Donald Trump goes to England thing doesn't sound so stupid. He's going to be asked on every news station what he thinks of the fact that they left the EU. His resort will be all over the news and people will now speculate about his chances in the general.

This will now make 3 times they've failed to count the conservative vote correctly in polls ahead of time. In Israel, and now in England twice.

Did Trump know something ahead of time, or is he just lucky?; 6/23/16, 10:02 PM
Bleach Drinkers Curing Coronavirus Together said...: I am the one who asked that question.

Ahhh ok. My bad. Something about those reflected snapping albino crocodile profile avatars that make me just look away.

Well, I guess then a different answer applies. Why would we be threatened by a Europe united in democracy and peace?

If we ever were, I wasn't aware. Maybe we can get the Bill Kristol PNAC crowd on the ball and start writing articles about how we need to invade Brussels yesterday.; 6/23/16, 10:07 PM
J. Farmer said...: @Rhythm and Balls:

"Why would we be threatened by a Europe united in democracy and peace?"

Well, I think the democracy and peace is question beginning a bit. But you could just as easily turn the question around and ask Europhiles why they believe the EU could be leverage against Russia and the US. If the people creating the system believe it will be a check on our influence, I don't think it's such a bad idea to take their word for it.

"Maybe we can get the Bill Kristol PNAC crowd on the ball and start writing articles about how we need to invade Brussels yesterday."

Bill Kristol has been advocating dumb, counterproductive interventions for at least the last 20 years. As a general rule of thumb, Kristol being supportive of any foreign intervention is reason enough to take a seriously hard look at that decision.; 6/23/16, 10:16 PM
Lyle said...: Nigel Farage back at the Leave.EU campaign HQ. Six hours ago he was predicting defeat. Now he’s exultant, saying, “Dare to dream … Let June 23rd go down as our Independence Day.”; 6/23/16, 10:17 PM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: UKIP pulls a significant amount of the white working-class vote, probably enough to deny Labour Downing Street over the next several years. Brexit happens and those Anglotrumpians are free to return to Labour.; 6/23/16, 10:18 PM
Lyle said...: Market watch: the pound has suffered the biggest drop in value since “Black Wednesday” in 1992.; 6/23/16, 10:18 PM
eric said...: Blogger Rhythm and Balls said...
I am the one who asked that question.

Ahhh ok. My bad. Something about those reflected snapping albino crocodile profile avatars that make me just look away.

Well, I guess then a different answer applies. Why would we be threatened by a Europe united in democracy and peace?

Like the States, European nations should have autonomy. As our states have lost their individualism and states rights, and the Federal Government has grown in power, we've become governed by bureaucrats. It gets harder and harder to have a voice.

Some of us believe government is better when it's smaller. Smaller government is possible among smaller groups of people. The English people have a larger voice when they are the English people. When they are one among many countries, the bureaucrats gain the power and the people lose their voice.; 6/23/16, 10:20 PM
JackWayne said...: I think the Greeks, seeing their government undemocratically subjugated by the Troika, will disagree with your assumption that the Euro is democratic. Or that 3 of the 5 appointed Euro Presidents are not elected. And on and on.; 6/23/16, 10:26 PM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: And if, as someone speculated above, Parliament gets cute about leaving the EU (assuming Leave wins) they'll pay a horrible price at the ballot box. Like Confederate Secession or German Reunification, I bet this will be a done deal faster than anyone anticipates.; 6/23/16, 10:27 PM
Original Mike said...: "Market down 80 points now on the S&P futures market, which is huge."

A chunk of that is just giving back this week's gain attributed to the expected Remain result.; 6/23/16, 10:28 PM
Original Mike said...: Nontheless, I think I'll make a point of not watching the market tomorrow.; 6/23/16, 10:28 PM
J. Farmer said...: @The Cracker Ethnocentrist:

UKIP pulls a significant amount of the white working-class vote, probably enough to deny Labour Downing Street over the next several years. Brexit happens and those Anglotrumpians are free to return to Labour.

As I am sure you are aware, a successful "Leave" vote would be just the start of UKIP's work, not the end of it. But ultimately, I take your point. If a Bexit were achieved, UKIP's primary raison d'être would cease to exist. But would it be such a bad thing if UKIP, having achieved what it was created to achieve, simply dissolved away? It almost seems like your faulting UKIP for not putting partisan self-interest ahead of national interest.

"You didn't, frankly, have the balls to put country before party." -- Nigel Farage; 6/23/16, 10:31 PM
buwaya said...: I dont think this is the end of it, but then Im a pessimist. There is far too much money on the other side of this. It will be fought bitterly in every corner and with every weapon available.
Its also why I think UKIP will benefit, and wont be irrelevant- they will have to do the fighting.; 6/23/16, 10:32 PM
narciso said...: well no, because as james goldsmith's saw it, the independence party has a particular vision of what the uk should be, it's more what the tories used to be before they went 'wet'; 6/23/16, 10:35 PM
Lyle said...: It's going to be Brexit!!!; 6/23/16, 10:36 PM
narciso said...: labour by contrast, has to be chained to the continent, social democracy can't work in a vacuum,; 6/23/16, 10:38 PM
buwaya said...: On the other side of the channel, if the British actually manage this, the French may get ideas. They did vote against the EU constitution, and were overruled by their masters a couple of years later.; 6/23/16, 10:38 PM
eric said...: Yep, it's been called now for Brexit.

Of course, if England is anything like the US, the equivalent to the Democrats in England will take this to court and overturn the will of the people.; 6/23/16, 10:38 PM
Lyle said...: The Germans are worried about the Dutch leaving the EU, I have read.; 6/23/16, 10:40 PM
buwaya said...: Trump is there, I wonder if he will say something.
Photo op with Farage?; 6/23/16, 10:42 PM
eric said...: Blogger buwaya puti said...
Trump is there, I wonder if he will say something.
Photo op with Farage?

Of course he will.

This was a brilliant trip by Trump that the media will now try their hardest to downplay and turn into a gaffe fest.; 6/23/16, 10:43 PM
bagoh20 said...: Opportunity knocks. Dynamism is peaking out from under that giant EU wet blanket.; 6/23/16, 10:47 PM
J. Farmer said...: @buwaya puti:

"Its also why I think UKIP will benefit, and wont be irrelevant- they will have to do the fighting."

Totally agree with this. It will take some time for the UK to completely extricate itself from the continent, and you can bet the establishment system will fight tooth and nail.

On a side note, I wonder where Nick Clegg is right now? He actually went into a coalition government in 2010 and managed to make the Lib Dems even more irrelevant than they already are. That's quite an accomplishment!; 6/23/16, 10:49 PM
virgil xenophon said...: buwaya@7:40pm/

"...EU-never-meant-to-be-a democracy..."

Yes if one researches the history of the EU it all began as a brain-child stealth project of the French socialist/economist Gene Monet (which began with the European Steel & Coal community in the 50s) who believed that European-wide economic cooperation would inevitably lead to financial linkage (the Euro) which would inevitably, inexorably "spill forward" (to use a term political scientists use to describe the history of the EU process) to a full-fledged political, federal system. As Monet was a dyed-in-the-wool socialist cum all but a card-carrying communist, a democracy was the last thing he contemplated.....Note that all the EU "commissioners" are unelected bureaucrats.; 6/23/16, 10:51 PM
Original Mike said...: So, once again, the polls get it wrong.; 6/23/16, 10:51 PM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: Farmer,

Not faulting UKIP at all. And you're right, it's purpose is to expend itself in the successful pursuit of it's goals.; 6/23/16, 10:53 PM
The Cracker Emcee Refulgent said...: Now excuse me while I get a needle and pick a gold star out of my EU flag. I'm thinking the 11 o'clock one, no?; 6/23/16, 10:57 PM
rcocean said...: "but in Scotland "Remain" is about 450,000 votes ahead."

The English need to leave 'The Union' too. The Celts - whether Scot or Irish - are losers.; 6/23/16, 11:01 PM
Original Mike said...: Obama's magic touch strikes again.; 6/23/16, 11:09 PM
J. Farmer said...: @The Cracker Ethnocentrist:

"Now excuse me while I get a needle and pick a gold star out of my EU flag. I'm thinking the 11 o'clock one, no?"

Haha. No, no...straight up midnight, my friend. Britain may be the first off the sinking ship, but it won't be the last. Might as well start at the beginning and work your way around clockwise.

p.s. Were you born and bred in Florida or Georgia? If not, I take exception to your cultural appropriation of the term "cracker."; 6/23/16, 11:11 PM
Amadeus 48 said...: The way they usually handle these things in Europe is to slow-walk any change, throw a few punitive measures into the mix, operate in complete bad faith, and then keep having votes until Remain wins one. Then they stop voting. Cameron is Tony Blair, Jr. Any chance that the Tories will operate any differently this time?

Also, the Scottish beast will now come roaring out demanding separation from England and Wales. Notice that every district in Scotland voted Remain.

There are interesting times ahead.; 6/23/16, 11:30 PM
J. Farmer said...: Well, it's 12:48am lads and lassies. I stayed up long enough to see the BBC and the Telegraph call it for "Leave." Tomorrow when the dust settles is when things will really begin to get interesting. Yes they can!; 6/23/16, 11:49 PM
Churchy LaFemme: said...: Wow, good on Britain!

But so now there's a two year exit negotiation? How's that supposed to work? Won't Europe take every opportunity to dun the UK while they still can and gang up on them unmercifully with punitive rules since they don't have to worry about needing their vote later?; 6/24/16, 12:08 AM
HoodlumDoodlum said...: I'll bet immigration had nothing to do with this vote. I'll bet the Media will make sure we all understand immigration had nothing to do with this vote.; 6/24/16, 12:29 AM
Batman AZ said...: My wife and I watched it until the UK news organizations called the "Leave" side as victorious. It was quite fun. Fox Business Channel simulcast with Sky News. Love the accents! We welcome the UK to the revolution...1776/2016.; 6/24/16, 12:33 AM
n.n said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 6/24/16, 12:35 AM
n.n said...: The anti-native factions suffered a setback, but they are not out. Not yet. The momentum still favors anti-native policies in Britain, France, America, Syria, etc.

Good luck to the People. Stop aborting/planning your Posterity!; 6/24/16, 12:38 AM
Jon Ericson said...: readering said... [hush][hide comment]
Looks like Obama was right to speak up.

6/23/16, 5:45 PM

Ohhh Yeaaah.; 6/24/16, 1:14 AM
Lyle said...: David Cameron has resigned as Prime Minister.; 6/24/16, 2:33 AM
Darrell said...: Let Freedom Ring!

The power of Elizabeth Hurley in action!

Say hello to President Trump!; 6/24/16, 2:34 AM
james conrad said...: THEY GONE! Interesting that Trump is in GB at the moment, good timing! It's quite a contrast with Obama telling the Brits that they will be at “back of the queue,” and Trump is quoted as saying
“I would personally be more inclined to leave, for a lot of reasons like having a lot less bureaucracy. … But I am not a British citizen. This is just my opinion.”
I like Trump's position better, A LOT better. He gives his opinion in a respectful way whereas Barry threatens them in the Chicago way.; 6/24/16, 3:48 AM
Humperdink said...: Not a good day for Obama. First SCOTUS slaps his knuckles in a large way, then the Brits view his earlier threat as one of his imaginary red lines.; 6/24/16, 4:54 AM
Rusty said...: "Tell that to Coke and Pepsi."

Not sure what you mean by this.

"Why would we encourage the creation and formation of a new great power rival right before our eyes?"

Real Politic aside, I don't think it would be that much competition since as it stands we are already "partners" militarily. Economically is another matter. But I guess that's what treatys are for.

I do think an independent Scotland would be a huge economic drag for the EU and a sigh of relief for Britain.; 6/24/16, 5:51 AM
Humperdink said...: Ironic that we rebelled against our British betters 200+ years ago. Now they have done the same. Slow learning curve.; 6/24/16, 6:13 AM
Homebuyer Conveyancing said...: We went in to the EU with our eyes open. Lets hope we have exited with the same; 6/24/16, 6:30 AM
Humperdink said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 6/24/16, 6:37 AM
Humperdink said...: "We went in to the EU with our eyes open."

I would disagree. If you went in with your eyes open, why are you choosing to leave?

You are leaving because you went in with one eye shut and the other glazed over and discovered you were snookered.; 6/24/16, 6:39 AM
PackerBronco said...: Thank you President Obama!

Now give a speech telling us why the Bears are going to win the NFC North and my day will be complete.; 6/24/16, 7:58 AM
SweatBee said...: "So in the UK, people are supposed to just go to bed on election night and find out what happens the next day. The election is not a TV show to be watched all night like a sporting event. What fun is that?!"

Not necessarily. There was no exit polling for this referendum because the nature of the vote made it difficult to develop models for exit polling. Even so, I've been in the U.K. on election night, and while the reporting isn't exactly like the U.S. version, there is still some sport to it. I remember watching the cameras follow the car with the first batch of ballot boxes (O.J. style) to the counting location where they ran (O.J. in a Hertz commercial style) into the building and began the count by hand. I'm amazed how quickly they get the votes counted considering they still use paper ballots.; 6/24/16, 9:52 AM