July 23, 2014

"A new Marquette Law School Poll finds that the Wisconsin governor’s race remains a dead heat..."

"... with Republican Gov. Scott Walker receiving the support of 46 percent of registered voters and Democratic challenger Mary Burke receiving 45 percent support...."
Among likely voters, i.e., those who say they are certain to vote in November’s election, Burke receives 47 percent and Walker 46 percent....

The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. For the sample of 549 likely voters, the margin of error is +/- 4.3 percentage points.

34 comments:

garage mahal said...

I was darn close! I had it LV Burke 48-46

Anonymous said...

We can all go home now, Walker has lost. It's all over. Turn out the lights.

Farmer said...

It seems like only a couple months ago that Walker was miles ahead. What happened?

Mark Jones said...

"John Doe" investigations and other character assassination, of course. Standard lefty tactics.

gadfly said...

@Farmer said...
"It seems like only a couple months ago that Walker was miles ahead. What happened?"

Actually that poll as conducted January 27. What happened? We got 6 months closer to the election when all closely contested races tighten up.

Th Republican firestorm nationally is going to move Walker's way in November. You heard it here first.

Krumhorn said...

These are the same results that Rasmussen reported back in March. It's hard to believe that Wisconsin voters will want to "turn back the clock" by electing another looselugnut librul. Walker has been amazingly effective in fixing WI politics and the state finances, and he is an inspiration to more timorous Republican governors elsewhere.

Once this John Doe investigation collapses for the partisan abuse of power that it is, his excellent legacy to date will be secure.

-Krumhorn

khesanh0802 said...

In a May 2012 poll Marquette had Barrett slightly ahead of Walker in the recall. The final was 53% to 46% Walker. I would not put a lot of faith - or money - on this poll.

garage mahal said...

Next month millions of documents from the first John Doe probe are going to be released. It ain't going to get an easier for Walker from now til November.

Big Mike said...

That Mary Burke is above 30% conclusively proves that Wisconsin has a collective death wish.

Michael K said...

Expect a big push from the PE unions this fall to cut him down. This is life and death for them. They managed to get their guy in New York elected. that will be a nice lesson about leftist rule, as if Detroit and Illinois aren't.

Michael The Magnificent said...

It seems like only a couple months ago that Walker was miles ahead. What happened?

I've had several mis-informed lib friends (to be honest, all of my lib friends are mis-informed) go out of their way to claim that, "Walker is under investigation, you know."

garage mahal said...

n a May 2012 poll Marquette had Barrett slightly ahead of Walker in the recall.

Marquette poll from May 2012 had it 50-44, Walker ahead.

lgv said...

Yes, clearly WI is in dire straights and needs a major change. A full 180 degree turn is needed to alleviate the misery of life in WI.

How's the economy in WI by the way? How has it done compared the beginning of the Walker administration and versus the country?

What other metrics might be applicable to measure Walker's performance?

Oh, wait. That has nothing to do with electing anyone. Nevermind.

Mark said...

Walker has gone quite negative already, which is not a sign that internal polling is going well.

It will be interesting when the Chicago Circuit rules about our Gay Marriage amendment and Walker will have to either further appeal it or accept it. He has dodged that hot button question so far, but the issue will be back on his desk before November.

I don't think his attack on Trek is going as well as he planned, there is a desperation to the current ad tactics.

Curious George said...

"garage mahal said...
Next month millions of documents from the first John Doe probe are going to be released. It ain't going to get an easier for Walker from now til November."

All that's left when you have a candidate that was an abject failure in her role as commerce secretary and carriies the stench of Jim Doyle.

But sadly these will only produce a few mpre soiled gym socks at the mahal residence.

Curious George said...

"garage mahal said...
Next month millions of documents from the first John Doe probe are going to be released. It ain't going to get an easier for Walker from now til November."

It will be easier...at some point Mary Burke will have to talk, and get specific, and while morons like you won't care, many will, and will see what a fucking dolt she is.

Birkel said...

"garage mahal" continues to cheer the Leftist effort to deprive Wisconsin citizens of their constitutional rights. How very authoritarian of "garage mahal". I say just drop the act and go Full Fascist. Easier for everybody!

George Wallace ain't got nothin' on "garage mahal".

As to the polls, can anybody point to the accuracy of polls more than three months from Election Day? I accept those that show candidates over 60% likely have predictive power. Does any poll showing both candidates in a two-way race below 50% tell us anything? Where is a macro poll?

tim in vermont said...

Looks like "Dead Man Walker" to me.

StoughtonSconnie said...

Expect a big push from the PE unions this fall to cut him down.
Without a doubt they will, and it will be an utter and complete waste, because even if Burke wins, she won't be able to do anything but tinker around the edges of Act 10.

First, the chances are near 0 that the dems will make any large gains in the Assembly, and the chances are less-than 50-50 that they will make gains in the state Senate. A bill to repeal significant portions of Act 10 won't happen.

Second, Burke won't want to. If she has 1/10th the business acumen she claims, then she sees that for all the wailing and rending of Garage garments, Act 10 worked. The deficit is gone, there without state layoffs, and local government finally has the ability to negotiate expensive items like health care.

garage mahal said...

It will be easier...at some point Mary Burke will have to talk, and get specific

Burke is campaigning around the state, in public view. It's Walker whop is running around refusing to answer questions. He says his opinion on gay marriage and crony hires are irrelevant. He is right, Walker is Mr. Irrelevant.

khesanh0802 said...

@ garage 3:14

I thought you had me! This article refers to a May 2 Marquette poll. Your reference is to a poll taken 10 days later. I think the difference in results in just ten days underscores my point that we should not put a lot of faith in the latest poll.

hombre said...

garage is orgasmic over the possibility that Wisconsin's sabbatical from stupidity may end in November with a Burke victory.

Anonymous said...

I'm rather dubious of any poll showing the Democrats doing better among Likely Voters, esp. during a midterm, than among Registered voters.

Oh, well, we'll see in ~105 days

hombre said...

garage: "Next month millions of documents from the first John Doe probe are going to be released. It ain't going to get an easier for Walker from now til November."

Having been a Democrat and a prosecutor I am regularly amazed at the lack of ethics among prosecutors, usually Democrats, these days. Following an unsuccessful investigation (given that prosecuting Walker was the obvious goal), prosecutors release accusatory paperwork from proceedings dumped by judges, relying on the progressive mediaswine to play it up.

Later, they plan to dump thousands of documents obtained under the privileges they enjoy as law enforcement "professionals," relying, once again, on said mediaswine to publish selectively those that may impugn the Governor.

Sleazy, sour grapes.

Sorun said...

You'd think Hitler would be polling much worse than he is.

David said...

The mud is sticking.

David said...

"t will be easier...at some point Mary Burke will have to talk, and get specific,"

I would not count on that.

Unknown said...

Whats the margin of fraudulent votes that Walker will have to overcome?

Annie said...

Unknown, how many illegals have been shipped to Wisconsin?

James Pawlak said...

What is the "track record" of the Marquette U. Poll's predictions?

NotquiteunBuckley said...

Forging.

Onward.

Now.

We will withstand, proclamations of femininity from rhhardin aside, as one.

Forces massed against us are fast and getting stronger: so now must we prepare to advance liberty and freedom in ways heretofore unheard of.

For this is our generations' calling.

This is a link to what I will deem CONFLAGRATION 2014.

StoughtonSconnie said...

What is the "track record" of the Marquette U. Poll's predictions?

Generally pretty good, although I think that they tend to adjust their likely voter screen quite a bit before the election. They do tend to see their numbers bounce around a lot. For example, this is a 100 day poll (it's about 100 days before the election). Their 100 day poll before the Recall had Walker leading by 2, but it was registered voters. Their first likely voter screen had Walker up 1, two months out. They were an outlier, with everyone else (except PPP) showing Walker up about 5. By the time the Recall came around, they had it 52-45 Walker. It ended up 53-46.

StoughtonSconnie said...

All that said, polls are polls. They are a snapshot in time. Local political news is hard to come by outside of the local press, and the local press has been relentlessly and extraordinarily negative towards Walker. Frankly, I'm surprised Burke wasn't up by more.

Alex said...

If there are actual bad contents in the John Doe documents, Burke doesn't have to say a thing to election day. She can just coast.