Early results say yes!
UPDATE: Here's the Twitter feed #Wirecall. AND: Here are the AP results, showing the precinct totals.
UPDATE 2: "Sen. Luther Olsen has been declared the third GOP incumbent to hold his seat today by a Madison TV station."
"Sen. Luther Olsen is on his way to his election night party, his campaign manager announced."
If 4 of the 6 GOP incumbents win, then the Democrats have not taken over the Senate. It looks as though Kapanke will lose, so the question is what happens with Hopper and Darling. All 3 of those incumbents must go down, or the Democratic cause is lost. Darling is expected to win, though if you look at the numbers right now — 9:57 CT — she's down. But only 1 of 11 Waukesha precincts have reported. This is a flashback to the Prosser-Kloppenburg results reporting. You can try to make some predictions by looking at the final results from the Prosser-Kloppenburg race.
UPDATE 2, 12:22 a.m. CT — There are still 13 precincts remaining in the recall against incumbent Alberta Darling, but I did the math, assuming the remaining precincts have a proportionate number of votes and that the percentages in the remaining precincts are the same as in the rest of the county. With those assumptions, Darling wins by about 2500 votes, so I'm predicting Darling will win, leaving the Democrats picking up only 2 seats and not the needed 3. The majority in the Wisconsin senate will, if that pans out, stay with the GOP (without regard to what happens in the 2 recall elections next week).
August 9, 2011
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«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 302 of 302Folks, new thread at the top of Althouse.
I love how MSNBC is touting King and Schilling's wins tonight as some kind of amazing feat that has never been done before. When, in the end, it doesnt help the Dems in any way.
Oops David said:
Darling is going to lost.
This cracking me up...no one else hears Al Pacino do they...?
Damn.
GOP announced with 98% in Darling up 2500. It's over Johnny.
GOP source says Rs will hold all but Kapanke.
GOP source was wrong. Hope that:
Via McCormack, too good to check: “GOP source: with 98 percent in, it’s Darling 30,868 to 28,170″.
is not the same guy...
Madawaskan I am the typo king. My grammar is not slipping but my motor skills are.
"Does Milwaukee have as I seem to remember, a number of "hollow districts' - in other words, districts that exist but have no voters?"
NW Milwaukee abuts Washington and Waukesha County areas represented by Darling. This part of Milwaukee is dominated by industrial parks and parkland. It is not a very dense part of the city.
Seven -
i think i might have seen that one about 200 times. Great movie. Haven't seen the new one yet, but i cant believe it will hold a candle to the original.
With my candidate(Kapanke) losing tonight, i feel like i'm stuck in hillbilly hell!
David
Hey...no problem I called Hopper for the win and went dyslexic on Kapanke ...
gawd....
I blame reading Alpha Liberal.....
Plus I had fun visualizing you as Al Pacino.
ALH
Watch Hillbilly Handfishin' that should cheer you up...
If "GOP Source" is right my vote prediction skills are not so hot tonight either.
I knew Alberta Darling back in the day when she was just a meddlesome housewife. Smart woman. Always interested in politics and ideas. Far from your average hack.
Her opponent is not chopped liver either.
"Seven Machos said...
Geroge -- But then it's over after next week? Two episodes and that's it? These stupid executives are going to cancel this thing before it even has a chance to develop a loyal audience."
7M It's been fun, but seriously, we have had nothing but political ads here since last fall. So lets mock for the next week, and then put it to bed.
That thud you heard was Darling taking a 52-48 lead, per AP.
Thanks, Waukesha County.
jsonline now has Darling up 2,600 or so.
ALH -- The new one is not very good -- This is from someone who only grew fond of Cars after the 50th or so viewing, but I don't think the sequel will win people over. It doesn't have heart.
Even my kid was bored. About 2/3 of the way through, he wanted to go play the racing games in the lobby. So at least I don't know the ending, which is nice for the first viewing of the DVD.
Schilling (or some other Dem) would've likely taken Kapanke's seat in 2012. He claimed he wouldn't run again in 2012, but who knows. He would have been the strongest Republican if he ran, but still faced an uphill battle.
So the Dems get 1 seat a year early. Will the seat that Hopper lost possibly flip back to Republican in 2012? That's when King would have to run for re-election, right?
After tonight, the next big "moral" victory MSNBC will be touting is that the unionistas exceeded expectation by collecting 50% of their dues.
If the Darling 4 pt lead holds, all the Shorewood teachers in my wife's book club will be on suicide watch.
Using the AP county results, the turnout in Washington County is about 72% of the 2008 elections. This is pretty good and maybe even higher than the Prosser turn out.
During the Prosser election the suburban counties had about the same turnout relative to each other and relative prior elections. Milwaukee, however, had a lower turnout.
Darling did better in Washington this time (73%) than 2008 (68%).
Looks like it's done.
Graeme Zielinski - Wi Dem pooba - is on the tube decrying irregularities ... "slow reporting" by Kathy Nickolaus.
Manwhile, Pasch is in hiding.
Not the song of a winner.
So the Dems get 1 seat a year early. Will the seat that Hopper lost possibly flip back to Republican in 2012? That's when King would have to run for re-election, right?
Correct. If you recall, Hopper only beat King by like 100 votes back in 2008.
A strong Republican can easily win that seat back.
So, TOsa, does that perhaps mean that the remaining 12 districts or so of Milwaukee might not be that vote heavy?
Kathy Nickolaus is trending on Twitter.
THIS IS WHAT WASTING $30M LOOKS LIKE!
There should be about 6000-7000 votes left in Milwaukee. Based on the current percentage, the max pick up for the Unions would be about 2000 votes. Thats not enough.
65/82 reporting (79%)
S. Pasch (Dem) 27,766 48%
A. Darling(GOP) 30,394 52%
THIS IS WHAT WASTING $30M LOOKS LIKE!
Wasn't that exactly the plot of Brewster's Millions?
My God I am on such a roll tonight. Somebody please can this for later use when it might matter.
Kiss this "Recall Walker" shit goodbye. Wasn't ever going to succeeed. Now they won't even try. Barry is gonna pull the plug on it. He needs all that union cash for hisself.
There should be about 6000-7000 votes left in Milwaukee. Based on the current percentage, the max pick up for the Unions would be about 2000 votes. Thats not enough.
Correct. Basically, the only Dem stronghold Pasch has left is Brown Deer. Darling has both Memomonee Falls and Mequon, both highly GOP.
Wouldnt shock me to see AP call this race soon, to be honest.
Fun watching MSNBC while checking AP results.
When AP reported Darling took the lead, Maddow was saying, breathlessly, we'll have updates as fast as we can! And kept talking to a Dem pol, and kept talking.
Then, she quickly mentioned the results, then went to commercials. Still on commercials.
Darling is outperforming this year in Waukesha (66%) relative to 2008 (63.5%) and in Ozaukee (66%) relative to 2008 (62%).
Darling is performing in Milwaukee about the same now as in 2008 (at 35%).
With these numbers there is no way the Unions can win unless the Milwaukee turnout is insane. So far it is not.... and during the Prosser race, Milwaukee actually underperformed in turnout relative to the rest of the state.
No comment, I just wanted to use the wv: flushl.
I see your flush and raise you a floff.
65/82 reporting (79%)
S. Pasch (Dem) 27,766 48%
A. Darling(GOP) 30,394 52%
There are 9 City of Milwaukee wards left. 7 are in the NW corner with is full of industrial parks, landfills and parkland. sparse residential. There are two small wards near the juncture of Glendale and River Hills. Not very dense either, but in Pasch territory.
Pasch conceding? Sure sounds like it. But nope. She says it's too close too call at this point. "Stay and have fun".
/via Hot Air
"Ozaukee just updated, Darling ahead there 5,263 to 2,668 there. Darling extends overall lead to 3,100"
Darling takes the lead but there are still 12 precincts out in Milwaukee County. (This is not the gritty city but is the liberal and fashionable East Side--where I used to live--and the shore suburbs.) There is unlikely to be vote stealing in those places, but this is home turf for Pasch. Looks like Alberta has held on, but it's still a little murky.
(And yes Jason I was wrong.) (Or so it seems at the moment.)
What about the rest of Ozaukee and the remaining Wakeshau district?
THIS IS WHAT WASTING $30M LOOKS LIKE!
I am going to steal that. Actually we should adjust it for what Big Union spent as they are the ones who wasted it.
This is waht wasting $16M looks like!
I wonder if this will put an end to the recall Walker thugs.
Ha! Ed Schultz just said that in "the big picture", this gives progressives "hope" against "big money"...but fails to mention most of the "big money" has come from outside unions backing Dems.
These people truly are unhinged.
Why don't they just blank those empty districts and the beginning and count them as counted?
"Stay and have fun".
It's my understanding that there will be an intense physical challenge for the all-important amulet at the top of the hour.
I'm telling you people. This Wisconsin politics is must-see entertainment.
Brown Deer numbers are already in, as well as all the Pasch strongholds on the north shore.
http://www.mybrowndeernow.com/communitywatch/127418053.html
Tweets of De Nile start: "huge win tonight for Dems. 2 seats Dems couldn’t win when Barack mopped up. In face of GOP power–this is huge!"
*snicker*
You can almost invert the trends-
Darling leads some 66% to 34% in Waukesha and the Dem leads some 65% to to 35% in Milwaukee.
Why don't they just blank those empty districts and the beginning and count them as counted?
Where's the fun conspiracy and suspense in that?
opps...forgot those Milwaukee wards right by UW-Milwaukee...which makes 12 total for the city.
I think at this point the least Darling can win by is 2700. If Milwaukee County has similar turn out Darling will win by 2700. If Milwaukee is light, she will win by more.
Right now I see 7000 votes remaining in Milwaukee.... Unions will net 2100 from these.
About 5100 votes left in other counties, Darling will net 1600.
Right now Darling leads by 3150 at 11:23 pm according to the AP. So 3150 less 450 = 2700. That assumes Milwaukee has ahigh turnout...
If you live in Madison and need some rope, I would pick it up tonight. Something tells me they will be sold out tomorrow.
11:25PM CT
67 of 82 Precincts Reporting - 82%
Darling , Alberta (i) GOP 32,569 53%
Pasch , Sandra Dem 28,741 47%
Ed Schultz is making an ass of himself on MSNBC. Talks about "big money" as being the reason the GOP wins, yet fails to mention that unions have spent some $30 MILLION in these 6 recall races.
The guy is just absurd.
Darling is crushing now. The 66 and 67% votes and turnout in Waukesha and Ozaukee is outstanding. Better than she could have expected.
Yep there's 12 precincts out for Milwaukee, 3 for Ozaukee and one left for Waukesha....
Thing is you can't make direct projections because the size of the precincts are all over the map the last time I checked...
Darling up 3828
I think they even have "empty precincts"...
Jason, I just read the comments on the Wisc State Journal and the left there is saying the same thing. Big Money from Big Corporations bought this election. What an insult to those 145,000 people who voted Republican today.
Fun watching Ms. Maddow repeat Democrats' talking points:
Dems: Waukesha county votes are being held back...
Maddow just said same thing...
Meanwhile, if you look on the AP's site, you'll see 10 of Waukesha's 11 precincts have been reported.
Well, my East Coast carcass has to go to bed. Jason, thanks for the commentary. Your understanding of that district was absolutely outstanding tonight. I assume that Darling will win the rest of the way.
If it were up to me, a Sconnie with the name Alberta Darling would be called a honey badger. But that's just me.
Does anyone remember that "phenomena" from last time?
A bunch of precincts reported but the vote total did not go up...and the explanation was-
"empty precincts".
Yup.
@McCormackJohn
John McCormack
Done RT @philipaklein: RT @news3jessica: with 96% of the vote in, News 3 is calling District 8 for Incumbent Sen. Alberta Darling #wirecall
May not always agree with Nichol's opinions, but he ain't really one to flat-out lie.
So when was the last time the Dems held the Senate Seat in District 32?
Badger blogger has a nice chart on Democrat money spent on the recall.
And on his comment section....
Bumper sticker on an out of state union owned truck:
My union went to Wisconsin, spent $40 million worth of union dues, and all we got was this bumper sticker
This is the headline at Channel 4 Milwaukee NBC
Two Republicans Lose Seats in Recalls.
What an insult to those 145,000 people who voted Republican today.
Well said.
It just goes to show you that beating on drums, trashing the capital and chanting SHAME! and RECALL! doesnt get you anywhere. Its called the ballot box. And its called the silent majority. And its called people who care about this state and are sick of bullshit unions and taxes being raised.
Wisconsin Republicans told every person who trashed the capitol a few months back to get fucked.
strike that, wrong precint count
Darling declaring right now
WEAC spent $850,000 on the recall. Is that a good use of teacher funds?
And unions spent $1.7M to defeat Harsdorf and only got 42% of the vote.
What a SHAME SHAME SHAME!
Assuming proportionality (i.e. 65/35 split in remaining Milwaukee precincts) - she's still got a chance. Especially if the Waukesha precinct is a big mother.
I like a nail-biter.
When comparing turnout, it looks like Kapanke's district way underperformed relative to Darling or the others.
If this turns out to be the case it makes the Unions election effort (or perceived mandate) even more pathetic.... that they could only win the districts with the lower turnouts.
"At 12:30 ET, News 3 in Wisconsin calls the race for Darling."
Sweet. R's hold and Brewer's beat Cards in 10th. Can't get much better than that.
Maddow & the Dems complained--wrongly--about Waukesha precincts being held back (all but one have reported), no comment on 12 Milwaukee precincts that have yet to report. I wonder why not?
sidebets on Garage's new sockpuppet name?
Ugh.
Pasch party is over, but she will not make any statement (concede) tonight, despite being down 5K.
For fucksake.
Stay classy Dems
WEAC spent $850,000 on the recall. Is that a good use of teacher funds?
And unions spent $1.7M to defeat Harsdorf and only got 42% of the vote.
That money could have been spent to help thousands of hardworking middle class families through these very tough times, no?
Oh well, at least some consultants, media venues, and lackadaisical liberal arts majors working part-time summer jobs got paid.
...we will much about that be committed.
Garage will be back. Yeah, he's annoying, but he's an honest, decent lib. Just wrong.
When you get mad at Garage, just think of all the true ass clowns like Ritmo Urban Legend and Jeremy who are no longer here. Or Mick. Usually, when I mention Mick, he shows. So maybe we can talk about Obama's citizenship.
Hopper's race was pretty close. His showing in Dodge county was pathetic compared to 2008. That and a slightly worse showing in fon du lac is what lost it for him.
A republican should be able to retake this senate seat in 2012.
Here's the link for Fen's Channel 3 call.
channel3000.com
They're calling it for Darling.
Purple Penguin:
Mark Meyer (Democrat) held WI-32nd district seat until 2004, when he did not seek re-election. Kapanke won in 2004 by about 4% and by 2% (if memory is correct) in 2008.
So, a democrat hasn't held the 32nd for decades- otherwise known as, like, 7 years.
I'm assuming Nichols just misspoke.
He might have been thinking about Ron Kind, who was only the 2nd democrat to with the WI-3rd US congressional district in nearly a century in 1996. WI-32nd is part of the 3rd congressional.
NRO is tweeting that the Unions mustered $30 million for these recall elections.
That is outrageous. You figure 175,000 dems voted... so that is about $170 a vote.
Pasch campaign party just switched to cash bar.
Darling will declare soon - regardless of a Pasch concession.
Still going to vote against Bob Wirch next week. Just to make a point of it. Flee-bagging tool.
I wonder what this means for Holperin's race in SD 12 in a few weeks. Will Democrats be able to muster the turn out to support Holperin?
Holperin barely won in 2008.
Unless these 11 holdout precincts in Milwaukee are way off the 65/35 split elsewhere, so far in Milwaukee - she wins.
I appreciate a nail-biter!
Wisconsin has had great nail biter elections recently. Its not just that they are exciting, but the side I support seems to come out on top. Its fun to win!
Not to discount the fact that this is a great victory for freedom and fiscal responsibilty.
Unless these 11 holdout precincts in Milwaukee are way off the 65/35 split elsewhere, so far in Milwaukee - she wins.
Darling won 35% of Milwaukee county in 2008 when Obama was on the ballot. So expect her to do no worse than that in this election.
Now +5019, AP still hasn't called.
I don't think Dems will try to recall Walker unless they can get the recall on the ballot for the 2012 presidential election. They just are not doing any better in these counties in the past few elections than they have done before. Yes, they do great in Dane county, but there are not enough votes there to take out Walker.
My state senator, Leah Vukmir, just posted on facebook that Pasch conceded.
Father Fox, love you to death.
Are the Alter Boys hot in your parish?
Vukmir posted a photo of Darling getting off the phone with Pasch.
Darling now confirming on Fox 6 Milwaukee
I'm gonna feel like shit at work this morning.
Darling finally pulls the trigger on this. Pasch is gonna "review the numbers" until tomorrow. Still down 5k.
Fuck Civility.
AP Calls for Darling!!
MSNBC and AP now calling it for Darling.
Obama hoped to raise $1 billion for re-election. Well there's $30 million less for him, or 3%. And all for nothing.
Titus, I'm really sad. We had this conversation before, and you apologized for a similar nasty crack. I thought that was a genuine apology then and I took it as such.
Now?
Wisconsin, you've thrown a major temper tantrum (fleeing lawmakers, teachers vandalizing, "he touched me!", etc), damaged your reputation, and your liberals have spent $30 million for nothing.
1) Are you better off than you were $30 million ago?
2) If this is how liberals expend effort and spend money, why should you trust them with yours?
To the asshole "operatives" from Chicago:
Get.Out.Of.Our.State.
Thanks for nothing. Cheap bastards.
So. . if the Republicans knock off the two vulnerable democrats in thsi next round. . and things end up right back where they were. . . will the two republican losses be called "A massive sea change" while the two democratic ones woudl be called "Irrelevant"?
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