Althouse: Only 1 county left to report in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, and I calculate that Prosser will fall 137 votes short of tying.

April 6, 2011

Only 1 county left to report in the Wisconsin Supreme Court race, and I calculate that Prosser will fall 137 votes short of tying.

Here are the updated results, just in. Prosser needs 225 more votes to win by 1 vote. The one precinct left is in Jefferson County, and my calculation predicts Prosser will pick up 89 votes there. Not enough.

(My calculation assumes the last precinct has the same number of voters as the average in the other Jefferson County precincts and that the relative popularity of Prosser and Kloppenburg is the same as the rest of the county. This prediction method worked well in predicting what would happen with a couple other late-reporting counties.)

UPDATE: All reports in.

58 comments:

section9 said...: Hizzoner, the Right Honorable Richard J. Daley, walks the Wisconsin Dells by Night.....; 4/6/11, 11:50 AM
ALH said...: Dumb question alert:
Does it matter who actually has the most votes?

I have the idea in my head that winning after the first count gives you some amount of "power" (at least to steer the narrative)going into the recount. Klopper's folks will probably keep chanting: "this is what democracy looks like". But how much more accurate would the recount be compared to the initial count...; 4/6/11, 11:51 AM
Unknown said...: And, of course, Prosser will abide by the result.

The Demos keep recycling until they find a judge and a ballot box who will give them what they want.; 4/6/11, 11:52 AM
Chennaul said...: Crap West Allis is in....

Cripes I just checked before commenting in the last thread.; 4/6/11, 11:52 AM
Carol_Herman said...: Well, the outcome is known.

Most people didn't even bother to vote. And, as Glenn Reynolds says: "This is within the margin of fraud."

So, why did 300,000 people go for Kloppenberg? Why does the Right always take a beating? Sure. You can keep insulting people who vote. Be my guest.

But to win elections; and, ahead, NOT to see Obama winning in 2012, something's gotta give on the Right.

But the Right never admits to mistakes.

Sure "fraud's in play." The police were watching the ballots overnight. But, most people in Wisconsin chose not to vote.

Oh, by the way, meeting negative ads with more negative ads doesn't give republicans the advantage.; 4/6/11, 11:52 AM
Original Mike said...: THIS is why voter ID is needed. Opponents claim that the small number of people caught voting illegally does not affect the outcome. This result belies that argument.; 4/6/11, 11:57 AM
Chennaul said...: There is between 700 and 760 votes left to count in Jefferson...Maplehurst was holding it up....

Jefferson according to AP's latest numbers went 58% to 42% for Prosser.

Problem is precincts are irregular...they are showing 4 left in Jefferson...; 4/6/11, 11:57 AM
caseym54 said...: You can be sure that the public employee's unions got out their vote. You can be sure that any recount will be done by unionized public employees. I don't know about the collective bargaining issue, but it wouldn't be an issue if the state employee unions had to stay out of political campaigns. Here they even take sides in non-partisan campaigns.; 4/6/11, 12:01 PM
Chennaul said...: Hell just let me repost what I posted on the first thread about this here:

*******
Court Race May Come Down to the Town of Lake Mills (Updated)
Randy Radtke
Managing Editor

With fewer than 200 votes separating incumbent Supreme Court Justice David Prosser and his challenger assistant attorney general JoAnne Kloppenburg, the election outcome could be affected by the Town of Lake Mills where all the votes have not yet been counted.

Because of problems with its tally seats, the township has not officially reported any vote tallies as of yet to Jefferson County and that means that between 700 and 760 votes have not been entered in the statewide totals for a seat on the state's highest court.

Election officials in the township were expected to meet at 8:30 a.m. this morning to finish counting 24 paper ballots that have not yet been counted, make the necessary correction to their tally sheets and then report their vote totals to the County Clerk's office at the courthouse. But that meeting did not occur because of a lack of a quorum of the town's Board of Canvassers. A new meeting time has been officially posted by town officials and is now scheduled to begin at 11:45 a.m.

Given the closeness of the race for a 10-year term on the court (which is likely to be headed for a statewide recount), the township's vote totals could be a factor in determining which candidate goes into the expected recount on top.

lakemillsleaderonline.com; 4/6/11, 12:01 PM
Lance said...: Prosser should concede. Kloppenburg should recuse herself from any cases involving the Walker budget. Anything else is a Bush/Gore-style fiasco.; 4/6/11, 12:02 PM
Anonymous said...: I'd be curious on how many politically active UW system students might have voted once at college and once at home....potentially could change the outcome either way.

Agree with AA's comments regarding detangling this race from all of the other things going on in WI.
But it will take weeks/months to do it.; 4/6/11, 12:03 PM
Sprezzatura said...: Is Althouse having Watson write posts?

This one seems computer generated.; 4/6/11, 12:10 PM
garage mahal said...: Can't have any recounts. Too costly.

WE'RE BROKE!; 4/6/11, 12:12 PM
Chennaul said...: Swing State Project is reporting that the absentee ballots have not been counted yet.

Absentee ballots trend Conservative because they prefer not to go to the polls.

Shocking thing is IIRC there was one state that doesn't even count absentee ballots unless the election is within 1% or 3%.

I think it's Washington and the issue came up during he Rossi recount.

I don't know how many other areas might have a similar policy.

Anyone else remember that?

I remember being PO'd because of all the military that by necessity have to vote in Washington by absentee.

There are quite a few bases there-and all that time their votes were only counted if the election results were closer than 1% or 3%.; 4/6/11, 12:12 PM
Chennaul said...: garage

The cost goes to the county that has to do the recount according to one article I read today or last night.; 4/6/11, 12:13 PM
Chennaul said...: garage

And of course there are the -

court costs.

I don't think you mind that.; 4/6/11, 12:14 PM
paul a'barge said...: Voter fraud.

Welcome to Wisconsin.; 4/6/11, 12:15 PM
Chuck66 said...: Fraud more likely occurs via absentee ballots, or in the nursing homes. Example in Minnesota....

http://www.shotinthedark.info/wp/?p=19229; 4/6/11, 12:17 PM
MadisonMan said...: I accidentally voted for the wrong person for mayor this time around and was too lazy to go back and get another (absentee) ballot. Thank goodness that election wasn't close.

If an incumbent can't win by more than, say, 0.25% or 0.5%, then they don't deserve to be in office.; 4/6/11, 12:21 PM
Gabriel Hanna said...: Shocking thing is IIRC there was one state that doesn't even count absentee ballots unless the election is within 1% or 3%.

I think it's Washington and the issue came up during he Rossi recount.

This isn't true, in Washington most people vote by mail.; 4/6/11, 12:23 PM
foxtrot said...: Garage says:

"Can't have any recounts. Too costly.

WE'RE BROKE!"

Tell that to your own party then, seeing they are the masters of suing their way into power.

Let's get ready for Floppenburg's political coup.; 4/6/11, 12:26 PM
Original Mike said...: "I accidentally voted for the wrong person for mayor this time around and was too lazy to go back and get another (absentee) ballot."

I don't understand.; 4/6/11, 12:27 PM
Mr. D said...: Prosser should concede. Kloppenburg should recuse herself from any cases involving the Walker budget. Anything else is a Bush/Gore-style fiasco.

Expect half of that result. Betcha can guess which half. Kloppenburg will swing her gavel like a 10-pound maul.; 4/6/11, 12:32 PM
MadisonMan said...: I wasn't paying close attention, and drew the line through the wrong person's name arrows.

Didn't want to bother the city clerk for a new ballot from my precinct, though (I voted absentee last week 'cause I was out of town yesterday). So I just left my ballot cast for the eventual winner, not my neighbor, and watched her seal it up in the envelope.; 4/6/11, 12:33 PM
Methadras said...: Seriously, if a purple finger is good for Iraq, why wouldn't it be good here?; 4/6/11, 12:34 PM
Original Mike said...: What I don't understand, MM, is how you could get a second ballot after having already voted.; 4/6/11, 12:39 PM
Cindy Martin said...: After spending many hours this weekend walking door to door for Prosser, I feel I am trying to make an impact. Yet when I read that Obama is giving millions of dollars of taxpayer's money to shore up the health care retirement funds of unions i feel totally defeated. How can I win that game?

How come congress cannot stop this theft?

Obamacare’s Early Retiree Reinsurance Program (ERRP) — a $5 billion grant program that’s doling out cash to companies, states and labor unions in what the Obama administration considers an effort to pay for health insurance for early retirees

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2011/04/06/washington-post-and-cbs-receiving-money-from-obamacare-slush-fund/#ixzz1IlUII1vg; 4/6/11, 12:41 PM
The Drill SGT said...: MadisonMan said...
If an incumbent can't win by more than, say, 0.25% or 0.5%, then they don't deserve to be in office.

Given that Prosser won the primary with 55%, to her 25%, even if all other voters had gone for Klopper, Prosser seems like he would pass your acceptability test, absent Walker Politization; 4/6/11, 12:42 PM
Chennaul said...: Gabriel

Maybe it's Alaska....

I can't remember it was years ago.

And it's a place were a lot of military vote...

oy.; 4/6/11, 12:45 PM
Chennaul said...: *where* a lot of military vote.; 4/6/11, 12:45 PM
MadisonMan said...: What I don't understand, MM, is how you could get a second ballot after having already voted.

I hadn't turned in the first ballot. I was just standing at the booth thinking Nuts. I drew the line in the wrong place.

But I also didn't want the clerk to know what an idiot I was; 4/6/11, 12:47 PM
Alex said...: So, why did 300,000 people go for Kloppenberg? Why does the Right always take a beating? Sure. You can keep insulting people who vote. Be my guest.

Because parasites will always vote Democrat.; 4/6/11, 12:53 PM
Original Mike said...: "But I also didn't want the clerk to know what an idiot I was"

Didn't bother the butterfly-ballot voters in Florida.; 4/6/11, 12:53 PM
Alex said...: If an incumbent can't win by more than, say, 0.25% or 0.5%, then they don't deserve to be in office.

Lefty math.; 4/6/11, 12:54 PM
Chennaul said...: I think I am misremembering the problem was this:

********

PROOF: KING COUNTY MISLED SEC. OF STATE AND DOJ ABOUT MILITARY AND OVERSEAS BALLOTS. NOT ALL WENT OUT ON TIME
I now have documentation from King County and the Secretary of State proving what has been suspected for months but which state and county officials have insistently denied all along -- King County did NOT mail all of the required military and overseas ballots by the Oct. 8th deadline. Dozens if not hundreds of King County military ballots that should have gone out on the 8th were sent out late. Over 5,000 non-military ballots covered by the UOCAVA guidelines (overseas citizens, possibly military dependents) were sent out at least 4 days late and hundreds of others appear to have been sent more than 4 days late.

I contacted both the Secretary of State's office and King County Records and Elections yesterday to give them an opportunity to respond to my findings. The Secretary of State's office responded today with evidence indicating that King County misled them last October. King County did not dispute my findings.

Exhaustive detail in the extended entry --

Background --

The Seattle Times reported in January that "Feds threatened suit over military ballots".

Less than a month before the November election, the U.S. Department of Justice threatened to sue Washington state because it was moving too slowly in mailing military ballots overseas.
At that point Washington was the only state that hadn't mailed its overseas ballots.

Sound Politics; 4/6/11, 12:54 PM
Chennaul said...: Still I have an old Republican friend with lots of "experience" and he insists that you should vote at the polls rather than by absentee.

I really don't know what his reasoning is-but he rails at the Republican preference for absentee voting. He thinks it is less likely to count.

Take it for what it's worth.

Go ahead keep voting by absentee...

I know I'm not giving much rational for not voting by absentee in favor of going in person to the polls.; 4/6/11, 12:58 PM
Alex said...: another right-wing fantasy is that saliva-dripping fanged left poll workers are opening up GOP ballots and tossing them.; 4/6/11, 1:00 PM
Chennaul said...: Actually Alex

in Vegas all they wanted was enough Republican volunteers to go into the Dem held precincts and make sure that in the morning the polling machines were-

zeroed out.

That's all, nothing more than that.

And they couldn't get enough volunteers to do it.; 4/6/11, 1:11 PM
Chennaul said...: Tell me why your side wanted to automatically challenge every absentee military ballot in Florida?

You were that sure they were voting for Bush-which tells you something completely despicable about Liberals.

You're that divorced from the military-they're your "enemy".

And you risked all legitimacy with the military and anyone else that values them to do that too.

Gawd damn creeps.

I use to be an "Independent" before I saw that go down and what the media chose not to show you idiots on your couches.; 4/6/11, 1:14 PM
mrhand said...: Congratulations on the large majority of you relying on the same psychological crutch to rationalize the loss and make yourselves feel better.

"Fraud!" is the mating call of the loser.; 4/6/11, 1:17 PM
Chennaul said...: Alex

Since you're the LIberal today...

Why don't you care about the Ivory Coast as opposed to Libya?

Because CNN doesn't "show" it to you.

You're that "simple".; 4/6/11, 1:18 PM
Chennaul said...: mrhand

Try Diebold!-and challenging every military absentee ballot.

Super Loser.; 4/6/11, 1:20 PM
Skay said...: Democrats in Louisiana like to use "walking around money" to get votes.; 4/6/11, 1:22 PM
Carol_Herman said...: Absentee ballots are seriously "counted" when the spread is missing. Here, in California, I remember reading there were about 3-million absentee ballots at one time.

At best, they're always last to be counted. Winners usually being declared, first.

But it is still a vote. And, it's harder to tamper with, because it's illegal to tamper with US Mail.

Prosser should have done better; and didn't.

The lessons need to be learned by the republicans, now. Since enough people (half of all voters), were willing to cast a vote for kloppenberg. WHY?

What made her look so good?

Both teams are not equal! I don't expect you'll see much of a change. Since the Right wants to keep its shopworn wish list.

Also, it will be interesting, when Shirley Abrahamson "gives up the ghost," who'd get to be the new chief justice?; 4/6/11, 1:24 PM
Dustin said...: Frankly, with the union freakouts and the level of illegally cast votes in states that track it, and WI's terribly lax registration, it's reasonable to say that the number of illegal votes in WI was far greater than the margin, and that most of those votes favored Klopp.

This is specifically why democrats oppose voter ID. They don't want to suppress illegal votes from pushing democrats across close elections.

Regardless, Prosser lacks judicial temperament. He was the only person running who wanted to be an impartial judge, so it's a shame he lost to such a shameless asshole, but that's what happens when you compete against the machine with a weak candidate.

I'm very heartened to see that WI is not impressed with the best the unions can muster in a relatively minor election. It seems like the promised bloodbath won't come. I'll remember that in 2012.; 4/6/11, 1:38 PM
MadisonMan said...: who'd get to be the new chief justice?

Ann Walsh Bradley, I'm pretty sure. I'm almost positive that the person with the longest tenure on the court gets the right of first refusal.; 4/6/11, 1:40 PM
chickelit said...: Carol_Herman wrote:
Prosser should have done better; and didn't

Yes, it was incumbent upon him to win decisively, not divisively.

Half of my Wisconsin relatives supported him and half didn't. I can make some interesting correlations with other traits and characteristics but I shall refrain.; 4/6/11, 1:43 PM
Tully said...: There will also be provisional ballots still to be certified and counted. This could drag on for quite a while.; 4/6/11, 1:47 PM
Anonymous said...: Kloppenberg is in a difficult position. If she wants to appear impartial, she will rule against the unions. All hell among her supporters will then break loose.

I don't know any judge who wants to appear bought and sold (even if she is). This should be interesting.; 4/6/11, 2:01 PM
SteveR said...: If an incumbent can't win by more than, say, 0.25% or 0.5%, then they don't deserve to be in office.

I had similar feelings in 2000. If Gore couldn't win his home state, against a Texan (and by losing votes to Ralph Nadar elsewhere), he shouldn't have been able to fight over a few hundred votes in Florida.; 4/6/11, 2:03 PM
sane_voter said...: Prosser only picked up two votes in Jefferson's last precinct. present talley on AP is Klopp by 206. Subtract the 2 votes from Jefferson and we are down to 204.; 4/6/11, 2:08 PM
WineSlob said...: The Kloppy's Made Democracy Sloppy
From the Playbook of the Late Father Groppi
They Ranted and Chanted
Gobs of Fake Votes They Planted
To Prop Up Their Union Whore Copy; 4/6/11, 2:16 PM
Phil 314 said...: Approximately fifty-percent of Wisconsin voters turned out back in November of 2010, when Walker was elected.

Authorities expected a 20% turn out yesterday; turnout reportedly topped 33%.

So 1/3 lower turnout. Can I assume the left was energized and came out in greater numbers. Is that such a surprise.

Again I'll ask again, where was the Tea Party in Wisconsin the past couple of months

It appears to me (as an outsider) Wisconsin Republicans and Prosser got out campaigned. Deal with it.

(HT Dan Riehl); 4/6/11, 2:22 PM
Phil 314 said...: Statistically this IS a tie.

Skip the recount; flip a coin.; 4/6/11, 2:31 PM
Alex said...: Why don't you care about the Ivory Coast as opposed to Libya?

Because CNN doesn't "show" it to you.

Continue spewing neoconnish RethugliKKKan talking points.; 4/6/11, 2:34 PM
DADvocate said...: Again I'll ask again, where was the Tea Party in Wisconsin the past couple of months

It appears to me (as an outsider) Wisconsin Republicans and Prosser got out campaigned. Deal with it.

True. Wisconsin Republicans seemed entirely to passive over the past couple of months.; 4/6/11, 2:40 PM
MadisonMan said...: Statistically this IS a tie.

This suggests a margin of error within a voting event. Votes cast in error, however, are just as valid as those that are not.

In other words, I think the adverb in your sentence is meaningless.; 4/6/11, 2:42 PM
F4GIB said...: Anybody remember Senator Norm Coleman? He won. Then lost in the recount to Al Franken, the comedian.; 4/6/11, 2:53 PM