October 30, 2026

"Democrats were far more enthusiastic about taking the poll than Republicans were. Registered Democrats were more than twice as likely as registered Republicans...."

"After 2020, many polls, including The Post’s, adopted additional methods to guard against the threat of nonresponse bias, leveraging voter files with extensive information on past turnout and demographics to help ensure more representative samples. Polls also began weighting samples based on which candidate voters supported in the previous presidential election. Studies found this was effective in reducing errors in 2024, although polls still underestimated Trump’s support.... 'The partisan enthusiasm gap likely explains the disconnect between Democratic and Republican willingness to respond,' said Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, which co-sponsored the poll. 'With an unpopular president, inflation, a war that Trump voters never asked for, the lack of GOP enthusiasm is not surprising. Are Republican voters this late in the election cycle feeling so down about their party’s chances that they just don’t want to talk about it?'"


Sounds like Rozell wants to put the gloomiest face on Republicans. I can think of other reasons why Republicans might not want to talk to pollsters. Anyway, I'm skeptical about pollsters. Is "poll" even the right word, once it becomes a game of "leveraging" and "weighting"?

68 comments:

Aggie said...

Is it that they don't want to admit that they're intensely disliked, distrusted for really good reasons, even despised by some? Or is it that they are still oblivious? Hard to believe the latter, but maybe they've drunk so much Kool Aid that they no longer can muster even a flicker of self-awareness.

I still maintain that polls are not to evaluate public opinion, but to create it. That hypothesis would fit with such an approach to deny by pretension, too.

Mark Larson said...

I still have a landline. When I see what looks like an incoming poll call (and, if I have the time), I take the call and tell them I am enthusiastically democrat in my answers.

rhhardin said...

Even a properly done poll is just measuring wind. A poll just takes in whatever you think in the instant, where a vote requires a moment of madness where you decide and then take responsibility for what you decide.

rhhardin said...

Pollsters are not allowed to hang up (it would bias the poll). You can amuse yourself by keeping him on the line as long as you can, by not quite answering the question, changing the topic, etc.

Ampersand said...

I once had the experience of being telephone polled, and realized in the middle of the call that someone was probably using the poll to assess my suitability for their group. No more polls for me.

Peachy+2 said...

The left are full Soviet now. No one wants to talk to the Soviets.

Peachy+2 said...

Mark Larson - need more info.
Is that because you are? or because you want to throw them off?

Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...

Four Days Out, a Dozen More House Races Move Toward Democrats ~ The Cook Political Report
https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/dozen-more-House-October2026

๐˜ˆ๐˜ด ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ต๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜จ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฑ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ด ๐˜ฆ๐˜น๐˜ฑ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ, ๐˜‹๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฐ๐˜ค๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ช๐˜ณ ๐˜ญ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜จ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ต ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ซ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜บ ๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ฆ 2009. ๐˜—๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต ๐˜‹๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ฅ ๐˜›๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ’๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ฑ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ท๐˜ข๐˜ญ ๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ช๐˜ด ๐˜ถ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฆ๐˜ท๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ญ๐˜บ ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ 2024, ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜บ ๐˜ด๐˜ฑ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ง๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ ๐˜™๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ถ๐˜ฃ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ด ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ฏ’๐˜ต ๐˜ข๐˜ฑ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ณ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฐ๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ.

๐˜ž๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ ๐˜‹๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฐ๐˜ค๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ธ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ’๐˜ต ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ค๐˜ฉ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ 257 ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ญ๐˜ญ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜—๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต ๐˜‰๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ค๐˜ฌ ๐˜–๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜ฎ๐˜ข’๐˜ด ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ — ๐˜ข ๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜จ๐˜ฉ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฌ ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ด ๐˜ค๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ถ๐˜ณ๐˜บ — ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ญ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ด๐˜ถ๐˜ณ๐˜ฑ๐˜ข๐˜ด๐˜ด ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ซ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฆ๐˜ด ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ญ๐˜ญ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ 2006 ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ 2018 ๐˜ฃ๐˜ญ๐˜ถ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ธ๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ฆ ๐˜ค๐˜บ๐˜ค๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ด.

๐˜ž๐˜ฆ’๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ธ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ซ๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜‹๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฐ๐˜ค๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ ๐˜ง๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฑ 12 ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ 25 ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ด, ๐˜จ๐˜ช๐˜ท๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ ๐˜ข๐˜ด ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜บ ๐˜ข๐˜ด 240 ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ. ๐˜œ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ถ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฅ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜จ๐˜ด, ๐˜ช๐˜ง ๐˜‹๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฐ๐˜ค๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ’๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ง๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ, ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜จ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ต๐˜ฉ ๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ญ 18 ๐˜›๐˜ฐ๐˜ด๐˜ด ๐˜œ๐˜ฑ๐˜ด, ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜บ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ญ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ฉ๐˜ข๐˜ท๐˜ฆ 240 ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ด.

๐˜๐˜ง ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฐ๐˜ต๐˜ต๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜บ ๐˜ง๐˜ข๐˜ญ๐˜ญ๐˜ด ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜™๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ถ๐˜ฃ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ด, ๐˜‹๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฐ๐˜ค๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ญ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ง๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฑ ๐˜ด๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ ๐˜“๐˜ฆ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ ๐˜™๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ถ๐˜ฃ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฏ ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜“๐˜ช๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜บ ๐˜™๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ถ๐˜ฃ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฏ ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ญ๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฏ๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ด ๐˜ธ๐˜ฆ๐˜ญ๐˜ญ. ๐˜™๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ถ๐˜ฃ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ต๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ถ๐˜ญ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ญ๐˜บ ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ๐˜ค๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ถ๐˜ณ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฐ๐˜ถ๐˜ต ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ญ๐˜ข๐˜ค๐˜ฆ๐˜ด ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฌ๐˜ฆ ๐˜•๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ต๐˜ฉ ๐˜Š๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ข ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜—๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฏ๐˜ด๐˜บ๐˜ญ๐˜ท๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ช๐˜ข, ๐˜ธ๐˜ฉ๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜‹๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฐ๐˜ค๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฐ๐˜ช๐˜ด๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ต๐˜ฆ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ฅ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ค๐˜ฆ๐˜ด ๐˜ฃ๐˜บ ๐˜ค๐˜ฐ๐˜ฎ๐˜ง๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ต๐˜ข๐˜ฃ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ฎ๐˜ข๐˜ณ๐˜จ๐˜ช๐˜ฏ๐˜ด.

Democrats are ahead in the polls. So why does it feel like they’re behind? ๐Ÿคฃ

Peachy+2 said...

Ampersand - yes.
That is something I experienced some time ago, as well.

Mark Larson said...

Peach+2 Perhaps.

Temujin said...

"Anyway, I'm skeptical about pollsters. Is "poll" even the right word, once it becomes a game of "leveraging" and "weighting"?

Precisely. It is a push tool. Perhaps a jobs program. If you accept it as anything other than those, you are being misled.

Dave Begley said...

More lies. Trying to suppress the conservative vote.

Dems love to talk about how they hate Trump and want him dead. Sick!

Here's something that is NEVER mentioned in the MSM. The GOP redistricted in Red states for House seats. Watch the GOP win those seats. MSM doesn't mention that because it hurts the Dems. VDH reminded me of this in a YouTube video.

Spiros Pappas said...

Talking to a Democrat, especially the female kind, requires a calm, non-judgmental approach focused on "safety" and emotional validation rather than arguing over reality. It is very tiresome so we don't even bother.



Dave Begley said...

There's no way that Marshall loses that seat. Go to Kalshi and "lay your money down."

Jaq said...

Both sides have incentives to make polls close, losing side to keep their voters from getting discouraged, and winning side to keep their voters from getting complacent. All public polls require funding, and all funding comes with strings.

All you can really do is look at where the parties are spending money.

baghdadbob said...

My Facebook friends will frequently post anti-Trump screeds and lecture us on which Democrat to support. Very few pro-Trump or pro-Republican posts. I think people have learned that you will be unfriended if you say something nice about conservative positions. There is no such penalty for leftists. This is probably reflected in polling as well.

Deirdre Mundy said...

Does anyone trust their responses to be kept anonymous? I don’t trust random pollsters with my opinions- who’s to say that my responses won’t be used to target me and my family down the line? The guy on the telephone hasn’t earned my trust, he doesn’t get access to my mind.

Original Mike said...

I am fed up with all the political texts I've been receiving. Leave me the f alone.

Saint Croix said...

I think maybe the problem is that Republicans don't trust the media. And your poll has WaPo all over it.

I would also suggest that university-educated Democrats are far more interested in talking about their knowledge than working-class Republicans. So there is a class distrust of you and your polling apparatus.

And finally, Democrats have been actively trying to punish people for expressing any approval of Donald Trump. Directly and indirectly. Some people thrive on conflict, but many people don't want to be bothered with it.

Condescending elitists who look down on Trump voters have a difficult time talking to Trump voters. Shock!

Peachy+2 said...

I don't want to be harassed by the democrat mob party.
I answer NOTHING. This is the distrust the corrupt left built. (about the only thing they know how to build: distrust)

n.n said...

Democrats for Democrazis.

RCOCEAN II said...

Most Republicans have finally gotten smart, and understand the MSM is their enemy. If they called me, I wouldn't respond. Why waste my time telling the Post or their "partner" what I think or how I will vote? What do I get out of it? Nothing.

RCOCEAN II said...

Most people don't have land lines and they don't answer the cellphone if they don't know who's calling. If they really want to talk and you don't know their number, they will leave a voice mail.

loudogblog said...

Back in 1980, I had a temporary job working as a pollster for the Los Angeles Times. It was pretty dull. They would give us lists of phone numbers and we would call people to try and get them to do our 1980 Presidential polls. I remember that there was a Presidential candidate, named John Anderson, who actually did pretty well, but didn't really have a chance of winning. My favorite call was when we were calling the Delegates to the conventions. One of the numbers I had to call was to Julian Bond. His staff thought that I was actually a reporter for the LA Times and actually put me through to his office by mistake. I could tell that he thought I was a reporter because he started to give very detailed answers to the first poll questions that I asked him. He was a good sport about it and actually finished the short poll and we had a nice, short discussion. All in all, he was a very gracious person.

And the mashed potatoes and gravy in the employee cafeteria at the Los Angeles Times were spectacular.

Dr Weevil said...

Saint Croix:
Just think about the political leanings of people you know. Those who say "I'd LOVE to tell you all about my political opinions! How much time do you have?" and those who interrupt the pollster's first question and say "Excuse me, my political opinions are none of your business" (with or without a "damned" or a "fucking" before "business"): which one is more likely to be a Democrat, and which one a Republican? We all know the answer to that one.

RCOCEAN II said...

Its much harder to get a opinion poll that accurately reflects the public's opinon when you have a hetrogeneous universe with various demographic group having widely different opinions.

In case of voting, its a simple binary D vs. R, and you can look at voting history by location and demographics and make sure your poll matches up with history. If your poll size is 1000, you don't call up 500 blacks in Detroit to see how Michagan will vote.

Dr Weevil said...

"Democrats are ahead in the polls. So why does it feel like they’re behind?" Because polls lie, duh! Most of them are trying to push people one way, and even the very few who are consciously trying to be fair are lying about their accuracy, and lying to themselves about their efforts at fairness.

I already posted this on a previous thread, but here's a post on the polling in Israel's election three days ago (link): it begins "Israel's polling apocalypse".

We'd all be better off if polls ceased to exist, and pollsters had to find a more honest line of work, such as pimping or dealing drugs.

RCOCEAN II said...

In general, most liberal/leftists love politics. They even love fighting over politics. And when there aren't any Conservatives around, they fight among themselves. It really is a substitute religion for most of them. A cliche - but true.

They extend this to who their friends are and what movies and TV shows they watch.

gilbar said...

is "poll" the right word?
well, it IS the word we use, to describe a scam used by democrats to influence voters

John henry said...

When will Repos and others lear not to not respond to polls? That accomplishes nothing.

When asked by a pollster we need to lie our asses off. We have no obligation legal, moral or other to tell them the truth.

There is absolutely no, none, zilch, nada, benefit to me for telling a political pollster the truth. Ever.

John Henry

Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...

I have to say, brilliant job from master strategist Trump making sure that Ken Paxton, Darlene Graham, Vivek Ramaswamy, Michael Whatley and Mike Collins, etc got Republican nominations with his endorsement. And nice work by the cult voting for whomever he says.

s'opihjerdt said...

The only polls I answer are conducted at City Hall on a Tuesday.

rehajm said...

...Friday before election Tuesday represents the last practical opportunity to manipulate the electorate with 'Republicans are going to lose bigly' stories, so they get flushed out of the hopper to make way for the 'look at the long lines of minorities ready to vote for Democrats' propaganda plus the 'This is why what looks like Democrats cheating is in no way absolutely not cheating' talking points. These scripts are placed on top of the 'look how well Democrats are doing' before the polls close on the west coast. After that, all scripts are exhausted, so leftie 'news' desk talking heads will be forced to ad lib when things suddenly, surprisingly aren't going their way...

John henry said...

"Democrats are ahead in the polls. So why does it feel like they’re behind? "

Why do they act like they are behind?

John Henry

wendybar said...

Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...
I have to say, brilliant job from master strategist Trump making sure that Ken Paxton, Darlene Graham, Vivek Ramaswamy, Michael Whatley and Mike Collins, etc got Republican nominations with his endorsement. And nice work by the cult voting for whomever he says.

10/30/26, 12:09 PM

Well, when you look at the way YOUR side is heading, there are NO other choices. You guys are NUTS.

Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...

Satire is hard because the right wing media is a farce.

Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...

If Democrats don't get +13 Senators, does this mean Trump still has a mandate?

Gospace said...

๐˜ฃ๐˜ข๐˜จ๐˜ฉ๐˜ฅ๐˜ข๐˜ฅ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฃ ๐˜ด๐˜ข๐˜ช๐˜ฅ...
๐˜”๐˜บ ๐˜๐˜ข๐˜ค๐˜ฆ๐˜ฃ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฌ ๐˜ง๐˜ณ๐˜ช๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ๐˜ด ๐˜ธ๐˜ช๐˜ญ๐˜ญ ๐˜ง๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฒ๐˜ถ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ญ๐˜บ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฐ๐˜ด๐˜ต ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ต๐˜ช-๐˜›๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ ๐˜ด๐˜ค๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฆ๐˜ฅ๐˜ด ๐˜ข๐˜ฏ๐˜ฅ ๐˜ญ๐˜ฆ๐˜ค๐˜ต๐˜ถ๐˜ณ๐˜ฆ ๐˜ถ๐˜ด ๐˜ฐ๐˜ฏ ๐˜ธ๐˜ฉ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ฉ ๐˜‹๐˜ฆ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฐ๐˜ค๐˜ณ๐˜ข๐˜ต ๐˜ต๐˜ฐ ๐˜ด๐˜ถ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ๐˜ต. ๐˜๐˜ฆ๐˜ณ๐˜บ ๐˜ง๐˜ฆ๐˜ธ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ-๐˜›๐˜ณ๐˜ถ๐˜ฎ๐˜ฑ ๐˜ฐ๐˜ณ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ณ๐˜ฐ-๐˜™๐˜ฆ๐˜ฑ๐˜ถ๐˜ฃ๐˜ญ๐˜ช๐˜ค๐˜ข๐˜ฏ ๐˜ฑ๐˜ฐ๐˜ด๐˜ต๐˜ด.

Possibly because we're not friends on Facebook. All my liberal "friends" have already defriended me- except for my step-brother who lamely attempts to discredit my posts.

All the other pro-Trump posts I see are from people who are more distant acquaintances than friends. Who also don't give a s--- about hurting other peoples feelings by posting truth.

Saint Croix said...

Dr. Weevil, unless the unlucky bastard gets me on the phone!

The only poll I ever participated in was run by a tire company. They wanted to know what I thought about tires. I must have spent 30 minutes on the phone, yapping about tires. He wanted to me to name all the tire companies I could name.

"Goodyear. They got a blimp. Goodrich. They don't have a blimp. And, let me see, the one with the babies in the tires. So much is riding on your tires."

"What's their name?"

"I don't know. It's French, right?"

"Do you remember the name?"

"Nah."

He was unhappy that I could not remember this damn tire company. Later I was like, "Michelin! Son of a bitch." So I figured he was probably doing some scout work for Michelin.

Can I just say, "Goodrich doesn't have a blimp" is a fantastic bit of advertising. All the blimp advantages without paying for the blimp. And name confusion that rivals some Alaskans. In politics, it's a crime, but in tire sales, that's funny as shit.

Anyway, the poll guy was super-impressed that I would not answer the race question.

"What race are you?"

"I'm not answering that."

He was impressed because I answered all his damn tire questions for 30 minutes. And now I was refusing to reveal my race. That blew his mind. I might have even told him race was stupid.

planetgeo said...

Is the trustworthiness of polls even debatable any more? Don't we already have a broad body of evidence to the contrary? And on the persistent direction of their bias?

ChrisC said...

Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...
If Democrats don't get +13 Senators, does this mean Trump still has a mandate?

This is exactly the problem Dems have put themselves in. If GOP does even OK, then Trump is not rebuked. Instead of "GOP incumbent holds his/her seat", it's "Trump is a hero, saves the GOP". Not sure that is what Dems are shooting for.

ChrisC said...

WaPo trying to put lipstick on a pig here. Dems seem to be desparately worried that they won't have a blue wave and the polls are wrong again. This is a 25 year old problem for pollsters. Harvard/Harris says that their response rate for rural voters (about 80% GOP) is zero. It's not a new phenomenon. GOP voters don't trust the media, don't trust pollsters. It is almost impossible not to under count them.

Larry J said...

Except in rare cases when I'm expecting a call, I don't answer calls from numbers that aren't in my contact list. My phone will ask the reason why they're calling. Most of the time, they hang up. If they don't leave a message, I block their number.

I do the same thing for poll links sent via text. For one thing, you shouldn't click on unknown URLs for cyber security reasons. For another thing, I distrust all polls and polling organizations.
In fairness, I also block and mark as spam all campaign texts regardless of party. I will vote next Tuesday.

Lazarus said...

The only people who like talking to pollsters are those who want to vent. If you're a Trump hater right now, you really want to vent and feel you have to vent. You can assume that pollsters will agree with you, but even if they don't, you have to keep talking so you don't explode.

Dr Weevil said...

By the way, "Excuse me, my political opinions are none of your business" is a direct self-quotation, what I said to the first guy who tried to poll me, in person, around 1980. It was 2:30 in the afternoon, 95ยบ, I'd just walked 8 blocks to the grocery store in the hot sun to get something to eat, and a guy with blow-dried hair stuck a microphone in front of me and said, without even an "Excuse me", "I'm from WNAV, and if the election were held tomorrow would you be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who -", at which point I interrupted him with the words quoted above. His reply to my refusal to cooperate was a loud "FUCK YOU!". He then argued with me for 10 minutes, as a crowd gathered. The worst I said to him was "I always thought I wouldn't want my sister to marry a reporter. It's nice to have my opinion confirmed", to which he said "Do you want to fight about it?" and I said "No, I want to buy my lunch" (I may or many not have added "asshole") and went inside.

What amazed me about the whole episode was how he obviously thought I was the asshole in the argument, as if he had an absolute right to my time and opinion.

I called his boss, who sounded shocked, but don't know if he lost his job, because I didn't leave my name. (Fellow commenters: if that reporter was you, speak up, and we can talk about old times!) Why not give my name? If there's anything I don't need, it's a disgusting, smarmy, insincere apology from someone who's just trying to save his job.

Leland said...

Republicans are usually too busy working a job to get chatty with a pollster.

Kevin said...

Tammy Metzler: [her campaign speech] Who cares about this stupid election? We all know it doesn't matter who gets elected president of Carver. Do you really think it's going to change anything around here? Make one single person smarter or happier or nicer? The only person it does matter to is the one who gets elected. The same pathetic charade happens every year, and everyone makes the same pathetic promises just so they can put it on their transcripts to get into college. So vote for me, because I don't even want to go to college, and I don't care, and as president I won't do anything. The only promise I will make is that if elected I will immediately dismantle the student government, so that none of us will ever have to sit through one of these stupid assemblies again!

[the student body erupts in huge cheers. They start chanting "Tammy! Tammy!"]

Tammy Metzler: Or don't vote for me! Who cares? Don't vote at all!

[they all rise to give her a standing ovation]

Maynard said...

Spiros at 11:14 for the win!

Rabel said...

"Is "poll" even the right word, once it becomes a game of "leveraging" and "weighting"?"

We are controlling transmission.
If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume.
If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper.
We will control the horizontal.
We will control the vertical.

J L Oliver said...

Why give personal information to a group who has said and demonstrated that they want to kill you or at least severely punished you for your opinions?

Yinzer said...

We just don't want to let pollsters, who I'm sure are mostly democrats, have the real information, so in addition too making up data that favors democrats their ACTUAL data will not ring any alarm bells!

Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...

MAGA’s skepticism of polling is rather fascinating. When the numbers flatter them, polls are proof of a coming landslide. When they don’t, suddenly the entire polling industry is a corrupt cabal of incompetent statisticians who couldn’t find a representative sample if it were wearing a red hat and waving a Trump flag. Apparently, the only reliable poll is one that tells them what they already believe.

Mason G said...

"And finally, Democrats have been actively trying to punish people for expressing any approval of Donald Trump."

Yep. There's that video of a leftist asshole in Florida getting arrested for keying a car/truck (don't remember which) because the bumper sticker on it made him mad. At the extreme, there's the guy wearing a MAGA hat who was killed in one of the Summer of Floyd mostly peaceful protests. You could ask Charlie Kirk about that, but...

To be fair, Democrats don't all publicly celebrate the violence committed by their more fanatical members (kind of like how it works with muslims), but they sure don't seem to make much of an effort to get the radicals to tone it down some.

So when it comes to polls, what's the incentive for a conservative to reveal their political leanings to an anonymous voice on the phone who knows who you are and where you live?

Rustygrommet said...

Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...
Satire is hard because the right wing media is a farce.

Maybe you're just dumb.

Dude1394 said...

Why would republicans want to provide input to democrat activists?

Bruce Hayden said...

“After 2020, many polls, including The Post’s, adopted additional methods to guard against the threat of nonresponse bias, leveraging voter files with extensive information on past turnout and demographics to help ensure more representative samples. Polls also began weighting samples based on which candidate voters supported in the previous presidential election. Studies found this was effective in reducing errors in 2024, although polls still underestimated Trump’s support....“

That gives away the game. Dems respond to poll. Republicans don’t. The pollsters then have to guess at the Republican vote from the Democrat response, based on historical non-response rates. In other words, the pollsters are guessing. Biased, of course, by the desire of many pollsters to dispirit Republicans and voters for Republicans into not voting.

Are historical response rates indicative of the current political climate. I would guess not. A lot of the mainline Dem candidates have gone off the deep end in supporting the Red/Green alliance. Actual communists, along with Sharia loving Muzzies. Trump, etc have uncovered massive fraud on the part of ruling Dems, that through this fraud, they have bought a lot of illegal alien votes, and a lot of the illegal aliens have been sent back or to prison. And that is well received by most voters. On the flip side gasoline is a little high (but coming down).

Dude1394 said...

Republicans don't have bumper stickers, don't have a bunch of yard signs because democrats are violent, vile creatures. Period. As far as telling some democrat activist anything about me, not thanks.

Dude1394 said...

I liked this. Might waste some time doing it. "rhhardin said...
Pollsters are not allowed to hang up (it would bias the poll). You can amuse yourself by keeping him on the line as long as you can, by not quite answering the question, changing the topic, etc.

10/30/26, 10:58 AM"

Greg The Class Traitor said...

"'The partisan enthusiasm gap likely explains the disconnect between Democratic and Republican willingness to respond,' said Mark Rozell, dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University, which co-sponsored the poll."

What a lying sack of shit he is. Republicans don't respond because we think the pollsters are corrupt hacks.

Bruce Hayden said...

Add to that a number of Jews and possibly Black men moving away from the Dems. I know that Jews, in general, stupidly continue to vote for Dems, year after year, to protect the Tribe with group solidarity. But the amount of rabid antisemitism on the left is stunning. And esp how quickly it grew, and how quickly it became violent. Basing their adjusting of polls to 2024 levels is likely to undercount the number of Jews, in particular who voted Dem in 2024, and will sit this one out, or even vote Republican.

Big Mike said...

@Greg, not so. The problem is that mixed into the pollsters’ phone calls might well be calls from young Democrats trying to identify homes to vandalize.

D.D. Driver said...

But the amount of rabid antisemitism on the left is stunning.

Are you really going to act like the GOP is not full of cosplaying Nazis? And MAGA protects these little assholes and makes excuses for them. Maybe Jews should leave the Dems (I buy that) but it in what delusional universe do you live in that MAGA is a welcome place for them? Loony land.

Jim at said...

WaPo wishcasting again.
Next.

Jim at said...

*In fairness, I also block and mark as spam all campaign texts regardless of party.*

Yep. Delete and report as junk. I don't even bother to check which side of the aisle they're on.

Bruce Hayden said...

“Are you really going to act like the GOP is not full of cosplaying Nazis? And MAGA protects these little assholes and makes excuses for them. Maybe Jews should leave the Dems (I buy that) but it in what delusional universe do you live in that MAGA is a welcome place for them? Loony land.”

The first is just plain silly. More likely SPLC fabrications.

The latter, sure. Not knee jerk voting for antisemites and Muslims just because they have a D by their name is a good start.

Original Mike said...

"Yep. Delete and report as junk. I don't even bother to check which side of the aisle they're on."

That's what I do, but does reporting it as junk do anything?

Big Mike said...

@Driver-the-nincompoop, and your basis for the diatribe you posted at 3:31 is what, other than your bias and bigotry towards people who work for a living? It would amaze you that Republicans do not spend our evenings in goose-stepping torchlight parades.

I’m not going to pretend there are no antisemites who are registered Republicans, but “Death to the Jews” is not one of our campaign slogans. Live and let live, you know? Well YOU probably don’t know.

Five years and one month ago Dennis Prager wrote an article asking “Who Would Hide a Jew if Nazis Took Over America?”. I have Jewish friends I would risk my life to hide, but any Jew who votes for someone who preaches “Death to the Jews,” fo they actually deserve protection?

Though of course it isn’t Nazis, neo-Nazis, or redneck hicks who srd chanting “Death to the Jews.” It’s Democrats.

Jersey Fled said...

I always add 3% to the Republicans number to account for polling bias. I right more often than I’m wrong.

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