Althouse: Sunrise.

June 10, 2026

Sunrise.

Write about whatever you want in the comments.

134 comments:

Lem Vibe Bandit said...: The second and third down are best.; 6/10/26, 5:07 PM
tcrosse said...: Very suitable clouds for a grumpy old man to yell at.; 6/10/26, 5:16 PM
Iman said...: “So a bunch of idiots donated $600,000 to you for your legal defense?…and your family spent it all on bottles of Hennessy, jars of Kool-Aid pineapples, two new Cadillac Escalades, and rented a million dollar home?…and you ended up with a third-rate lawyer and found guilty of first degree murder in less than three hours?”

That’s about the size of it.; 6/10/26, 5:21 PM
Aggie said...: Third & fourth I think.

Lots of fawns being born right now, a bumper crop I think. The does are doing their slow ambles as they feed, not getting spooked when they see the dogs. They're making sure to draw all of the attention, protecting the fawns that know how to bed down and be absolutely still. But the does appetites are prodigious, necessitated by supporting the milk supply. They're doing a night time smash & grab on all my porch plants now, or at least the leafy parts.; 6/10/26, 5:54 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: Now the primaries are over Thune has come out from under cover, and stated no SAVE act can be passed. "We don't have the votes, the only thing to do is elect more Republicans". LOL.

We have 4 R Senators who are against free and fraud-free elections. We need 60, so we need elected 11 more Republican Senators to get a SAVE act under Thune. Never in the last 100 years have the R's had 64 senators, they've never had more than 55.

Thune, like Mitch the Bitch McConnell, hates the Republican voters and Trump. He was happy as a clam when Biden got elected and he helped schumer Greenlight all of Bidens nominees. And helped pass Amnesty (the house blocked it).

Nothing can be done till Republican voters wake up. MAGA is dead. Killed by courts and Thune.; 6/10/26, 6:04 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 6/10/26, 6:11 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: I'm not hopeful that the R voters will wake up. They've never been bright. Usually, someone has to betray them again and again and literally spit in their faces before they get the message that someone is lying to them and is a traitor.

McCain spent 2001-2007 going "Maverick". He was so helpful to the D's that Kerry wanted him as VP. So what do the R voters do? They punish McCain by nominating him for POTUS. LOL.

And who did McCain want as his VP, before he was talked out of it at the last minute? Why Joe lieberman. AL Gore's VP nominee and a liberal Democrat. I often wonder what would've happened if McCain had pulled the trigger in August 2008. My suspicion is that all the "Conservatives" would've gone along. Even Rush Limbaugh.

After all Joe loved Israel and big Business, and what can he more "conservative" than that.; 6/10/26, 6:14 PM
Original Mike said...: Hope you have power, Althouse.
We are powerless.; 6/10/26, 6:15 PM
Original Mike said...: How California style voter fraud works:

Skid Row homeless claim they’ve been paid to vote for Karen Bass and Nithya Raman

AND

Raman has gained around 20k votes since election night. She is around 3k votes ahead of Pratt now.
there are over 72 thousand homeless people in LA county.

That second link goes into great detail regarding the process.

Democrats are never going to fix the homeless "problem". It's their ticket to power.; 6/10/26, 6:28 PM
Original Mike said...: I apologize for all the white space.; 6/10/26, 6:29 PM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: Steve Hilton advances to general election for California governor ~ FOX News

Why did Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton say he'd seen no evidence of voter fraud in California?

Doesn’t he know that the absence of evidence of fraud proves that there was fraud?

California could do with a more competitive political landscape but as long as the Republicans keep on the MAGA train the less likely they are to get anywhere. Hilton may be a chancer -- but his platform actually addresses a lot of what California needs.

Steyer may end up closing the gap by another 50,000 to 100,000 when all the ballots are counted, but Hilton looks like he will have a chance to lose in the head-to-head match-up by 30+ points in November once the primary results are certified. Hopefully, Republicans pour a lot of money into this race.; 6/10/26, 6:32 PM
Eva Marie said...: Why did Republican gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton say he'd seen no evidence of voter fraud in California?
Because it’s not his job to investigate voter fraud.; 6/10/26, 6:57 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: World Cup starting this week. The "Beautiful game" is here in North America. The World Cup, because its a battle of nations, is the one time I watch soccer. I suppose Pro Soccer, or "footie" isn't anymore boring than baseball to watch, but its much more boring than US Football and basketball.

Too many games end in 1-0. Or 2-1. Once a team gets up 2-0, its pretty much over.; 6/10/26, 7:01 PM
rehajm said...: It’s called soccer!!- clap clap clapclap clap- It’s called soccer!!! clap clap clapclap clap…; 6/10/26, 7:04 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: Rooting against France. First because they're French. but also because only 8 of their 26 players are white frenchmen. The rest are Africans and North Africans. Even 2 of the 8, have the last name Hernandez.

I wonder if England will be any better. Maybe the best thing is the root for the Africans or the east asians, since they're teams actually represent their peoples and aren't hired mercenaires.; 6/10/26, 7:09 PM
Original Mike said...: "Hopefully, Republicans pour a lot of money into this race."

Remember folks, this guy is "more conservative than most."; 6/10/26, 7:11 PM
Original Mike said...: "The "Beautiful game"

I've always found the game kind of awkward. Hockey is ten times more graceful.; 6/10/26, 7:12 PM
Eva Marie said...: @Iman: They had fun with the money and made sure their murdering kid stayed locked up. Not bad.; 6/10/26, 7:13 PM
Old and slow said...: I really enjoyed watching and following football when I was living in Ireland and the UK (it's pretty essential to follow it if you want to have anything to talk about with your workmates), but it is 90 minutes of stress punctuated by moments of insane hope. Can he? Can he....? Nope. I went to a USA/Ireland friendly match in Dublin and watched the US get absolutely clobbered in torrential rain.; 6/10/26, 7:19 PM
Known Unknown said...: Tonight's TCM*:

Honeymoon Hotel (1964) - Roberts Goulet and Morse star in this bland sex farce about 2 guys (Goulet a playboy and Morse a jilted groom) who inadvertently book a vacation at an all-newlywed hotel.

Morse and Goulet aren't Bob and Bing and the laughs are too few and in-between. Morse does his usual rubber-faced goofball kid routine (much better employed in How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying)

Nancy Kwan is the real reason to sit through this as she stuns.

* - thinking about making this a regular part of the Sunrise/café posts.; 6/10/26, 7:20 PM
Known Unknown said...: "Once a team gets up 2-0, its pretty much over."

From Wikipedia:

In soccer, the most famously "dangerous" score is a 2–0 lead. While it is numerically advantageous, this scoreline is a notorious cliché in sports. It often tricks the leading team into a false sense of security, leading to complacency, while simultaneously motivating the trailing team to play more aggressively.

I've seen too many teams lose 2-0 leads and matches.; 6/10/26, 7:22 PM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: "Because it’s not his job to investigate voter fraud."

“To date, we have not seen fraud on a scale that could have affected a different outcome in the election.” AG Bill Barr 2020
congress.gov

U.S. attorneys and the FBI followed up on complaints, but found nothing that would alter results. This aligned with statements from other Trump administration officials, court rulings (nearly all of 60+ lawsuits dismissed for lack of evidence), and cybersecurity/election officials who described 2020 as one of the most secure elections in U.S. history.

Trump's DOJ to date had five years and five months and concluded there was no evidence of widespread voter fraud sufficient to change the outcome of the 2020 presidential election (or prior ones under his watch). Isolated cases of fraud occur in U.S. elections, as in any large system, but they were not systemic or outcome-determinative according to the department's own findings.; 6/10/26, 7:26 PM
Original Mike said...: Hockey also has a saying about the danger of a 2-goal lead.; 6/10/26, 7:28 PM
Jamie said...: Rugby is the game to watch!

Meanwhile...

Doesn’t he know that the absence of evidence of fraud proves that there was fraud.

Literally no Republican is saying or suggestion this, you ass.

Hopefully, Republicans pour a lot of money into this race.

And there it is. Didn't you claim to have been a Trump voter and lifelong Republican? Mm hmm.

This is, however, what will likely happen. Here's where the CA billionaires who haven't jumped ship ahead of the "billionaire" bloodletting can come in handy. Wouldn't it be something if a Republican could be elected despite the obvious setup of Democrat systems to support as much voter/ballot/electoral shenanigans as necessary to ensure a Democrat victory?

Because you, like everyone else, IEE, know that the way it's set up in CA, there is literally no way to prove the election is "secure."

How would you do it? If you were inclined to do so, I mean. Which you obviously not.; 6/10/26, 7:29 PM
Eva Marie said...: “nothing that would alter results” is an absurd statement.; 6/10/26, 7:33 PM
bagoh20 said...: "Senior officials within the Trump administration are signaling that a major disclosure regarding the 2020 presidential election is imminent."; 6/10/26, 7:36 PM
Aggie said...: Victor Davis Hanson sums up California's state of play pretty well here. About 14 minutes.; 6/10/26, 7:40 PM
Original Mike said...: "Rugby is the game to watch!"

League or Union, Jamie?
I'm a Union man, myself.; 6/10/26, 7:42 PM
Aggie said...: "...It’s called soccer!!- clap clap clapclap clap..."

I wonder what would happen if you found a good A.I. and asked it to compose a video skit in the vein of Monty Python, showing a European football team taking the field in Miami, and the Miami Dolphins taking the opposing side with their 300 lb defensive line players running their moves, while the Europeans discover they no longer have to 'act' injured.; 6/10/26, 7:47 PM
narciso said...: Thats a really tough choice of landscapes; 6/10/26, 7:50 PM
narciso said...: The poseidon adventure is also on tcm the first of the great ensemble disaster films in the 70s

Would a tsunami actually flip a cruise liner upside down

The revamp was terrible in ways only modeen hollywood could achieve; 6/10/26, 7:53 PM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: Eva Marie writes: “nothing that would alter results” is an absurd statement."

The statement is accurate and well-supported.

Bill Barr (Trump’s own Attorney General) said on December 1, 2020: “To date, we have not seen fraud on a scale that could have effected a different outcome in the election.”

This was not a casual remark. It came after the DOJ had been actively investigating specific complaints for weeks following the election.

Why it’s not absurd:
Scale matters: U.S. elections involve tens of millions of votes. Biden’s margin in key states was in the tens of thousands. Even hundreds of proven fraud cases (which do occur occasionally) would not move the needle enough to flip results.

Multiple confirmations under Trump’s watch:
Trump-appointed U.S. attorneys and the FBI followed up on tips.

Nearly all 60+ lawsuits were dismissed (many by Republican judges) for lack of evidence.

Trump’s own Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and election officials called 2020 “the most secure in American history.”

Later reviews (e.g., AP investigation in contested states) found fewer than 475 potential fraud cases out of >25 million votes cast — far too few to change outcomes.

Isolated fraud happens in every election (both parties have prosecuted cases over the years).

The Heritage Foundation tracks proven instances, but even their database shows numbers too small to swing national or statewide results in 2020.

As of 2026, Trump’s DOJ has reopened some 2020 probes and is pursuing broader election integrity efforts, but no findings have emerged that retroactively prove outcome-determinative fraud in 2020 on a broad scale. Claims continue on both sides, but the evidence threshold for “this would have flipped the election” has not been met in court or by federal investigators at the time.

The phrasing “nothing that would alter results” is precise: it acknowledges possible minor irregularities while stating they weren’t decisive. That’s a factual, evidence-based position — not absurd.; 6/10/26, 7:55 PM
narciso said...: Gene hackman probably stole the ahow from the rest of the cast; 6/10/26, 7:55 PM
Eva Marie said...: “The statement is accurate and well-supported” . . . and absurd.; 6/10/26, 7:56 PM
Meade said...: Eva Marie said...
“nothing that would alter results” is an absurd statement.

True. And absurd statements and defensiveness frequently evidence corruption and fraudulence.; 6/10/26, 7:57 PM
Known Unknown said...: SDS (Soccer Derangement Syndrome) is letting anyone know anytime soccer is mentioned how much you hate it and how fey and unmanly it is and oh, yeah boring.

People waste so much time complaining about things they don't even pay attention to.

Althouse Soccer posts are akin to Althouse Movie posts in which people brag about not going to movies or watching movies, and still bitching about them.

I feel most don't pass the "be substantive .. or interesting... or funny" bar.; 6/10/26, 8:00 PM
Known Unknown said...: Most soccer players who act injured do so strategically. There is one referee (side judges can signal fouls but only the lone ref can stop play to call a foul) who cannot see everything at all times. If you get a foul called, you get a free kick, which is valuable. Thus, even if it's not clearly a foul, there is an incentive to try to get one called.

Most soccer leagues around the world have tried to suppress the fake injuries by allowing referees to give out yellow cards for "simulation" which is basically flopping like a LeBron would. This happens, but not as often as it should.

I would love a remedy to this problem in the game, but it's sort of like how stealing signs is allowed in baseball if it's done in-game by noticing things. It's one of those loopholes that players will take advantage of to gain an advantage.; 6/10/26, 8:04 PM
narciso said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 6/10/26, 8:05 PM
narciso said...: There was a time before cable when abc did those big sunday night premieres (what tripe do they air now); 6/10/26, 8:05 PM
Meade said...: Something else that’s absurd about the Democrats: they see nothing wrong with electing a candidate with a Nazi tattoo who abuses women if it means it will get them back in power. They will fight fire with fire even when it’s their own house that’s on fire. They will fight Hitler with Hitler.; 6/10/26, 8:06 PM
Leland said...: Arguing for rationality from someone accustomed to lying seems a waste of time. Showing their lie for what it is, that's something. Arguing with them?; 6/10/26, 8:07 PM
Original Mike said...: "Most soccer players who act injured do so strategically."

Well, that's one word for it.; 6/10/26, 8:07 PM
narciso said...: Platnikov has not one redeeming feature a psycho in person and in policy (so hes right st home); 6/10/26, 8:10 PM
narciso said...: Roland emmerich showed how that template can go completely kookoo (thd one with the moon aa sentient organism; 6/10/26, 8:13 PM
narciso said...: I admit i was sucked into id 4 but they became increasingly more absurd (greenland had a more sober take); 6/10/26, 8:16 PM
narciso said...: They are never serious about they say concerns them; 6/10/26, 8:26 PM
narciso said...: https://x.com/todayinhistory/status/2064401684550529253?s=61; 6/10/26, 8:29 PM
bagoh20 said...: One of the best things about hockey is that there is no fake injuries. They have a good supply of real ones, and you have to be in need of stiches to call it an injury. I watched a guy get a puck right in face at 85 mph last week. Many dozen of stitches to put his mouth and face back together. No penalty. It was an accident. It didn't even interrupt the game much.; 6/10/26, 8:30 PM
narciso said...: https://open.substack.com/pub/adanestorwc/p/the-map-theyre-not-showing-you?; 6/10/26, 8:35 PM
bagoh20 said...: How do you prove a vote is valid if you don't see who filled it out, and even when you do, you don't know who the person is filling it out. That's 100% of the ballots in lots of places like California, where you can't even question any of that without fear of prosecution. Why would such a system be worthy of trust. Why would an honest patriotic person not want elections verifiable? Why are some people defending such a system? The difficulty of proving fraud under these conditions is obvious and intentional, and everybody knows it, even if they pretend they don't, which is just another necessary deception.; 6/10/26, 8:38 PM
narciso said...: You look at what that system has wrought and the answer is clear; 6/10/26, 8:40 PM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: Graham Platner's white supremacist tattoo and egregious behavior towards women is unbecoming of a US military Veteran ~ Pete Hesgeth; 6/10/26, 8:41 PM
narciso said...: A city that burned down and will not be rebuilt; 6/10/26, 8:42 PM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: Donald Trump said "I love the inflation." So why does it feel like Joe Biden is the one who made another gaffe?; 6/10/26, 8:43 PM
bagoh20 said...: Defending unsecure voting is just admitting you can't win without cheating, and I agree with your assessment.; 6/10/26, 8:44 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: You'd think after Teddy Kennedy, FDR, LBJ, JFK, and Clinton, the D's would've learned nominating abusers of women was a losing strategy.; 6/10/26, 8:52 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: I think Biden sexually abused some woman, but I forgot her name because NPR told me she wasn't credible - like all the women who accuse Republicans.; 6/10/26, 8:54 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: I think we need to get men out of politics so we can no longer have to deal with powerful men who use their position for sexual favors. Lets give women a chance to abuse their power!; 6/10/26, 8:55 PM
Bob Boyd said...: https://x.com/brivael/status/2064493618782785780; 6/10/26, 8:58 PM
bagoh20 said...: Riots and fires all over France because they lost a soccer game. We attended and watched our Vegas Hockey team lose a Stanly cup game last night. We sat with Vegas fans on one side of us and Carolina fans on the other. We all treated each other like we were family, and after the game, there was nothing but happy people by the thousands partying together in the street with mixed colors as if it didn't even matter, because it doesn't.; 6/10/26, 9:01 PM
Iman said...: Spurs are kicking some NY derrière. Up by 27 @teh half. 😁; 6/10/26, 9:04 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: In Las Vegas, there is no black or white, jew or Gentile, there is only beat the spread or not.; 6/10/26, 9:10 PM
Original Mike said...: "a homeless person cycles through the LA system. they get registered with their mailing address listed as the NGO HQ or homeless shelter
- they "sign" their registration with an X or nondescript, easily replicable signature
- they disappear. never seen again. or they exist, but it doesn't matter. they don't get purged from the voter rolls for 4-8 years typically.
- the address where they registered receives their ballot for several cycles
- operatives are aware that they have X amount of votes to make up. they fill in X many thousand mail-in ballots themselves. the ballots are manually postmarked (permitted). they forge the signature to match whatever signature (could be an X) was submitted upon registration
- ballots can be accepted even if they are postmarked at 11.59 pm. polls closed at 8 pm. (you would need an accomplice who is a USPS employee)
- the only fraud checks are de-duplication (if the homeless person through some miracle voted in person, only one of their ballots would be counted) and signature verification
- because very few of the homeless people in question would have voted in person, this gives NGO operatives tens of thousands of possible mail-in ballots to submit unilaterally.

the big problem is that there is NO way to detect this type of fraud. NGOs that register homeless people to vote exist. that isn't a secret. ballot harvesting is fully legal. voting by mail is encouraged. signature verification is as loose as possible. de-duplication doesn't solve anything, since few homeless people vote in person. and no one in power locally is going to spend political capital on rooting out such fraud, since they are all wholeheartedly committed to "voting rights"."

Raman has gained around 20k votes since election night. She is around 3k votes ahead of Pratt now.
there are over 72 thousand homeless people in LA county.; 6/10/26, 9:13 PM
Iman said...: Spock sings of Bilbo Baggins…

https://x.com/fOx1257067/status/2064690479690633520; 6/10/26, 9:18 PM
Vance said...: All you have to do to cheat in California is print a ballot, sign a statement saying you witnessed the voter make an "x", then handwrite a postmark date on the envelope before the voting deadline. No actual voter required!; 6/10/26, 9:27 PM
Eva Marie said...: “thinking about making this a regular part of the Sunrise/café posts”
Yes please. I would like less well known good movies to watch.
My preference of course are mysteries but I watched The Tender Trap with Frank Sinatra and Debbie Reynolds on someone’s recommendation here. It was adapted from the play by Max Shulman, (and Robert Paul Smith) creator of Dobie Gillis. Not bad.
Not a fan of Robert Morse but Robert Goulet and Nancy Kwan might be worth a watch.; 6/10/26, 9:32 PM
gilbar said...: i Don't mean to sound critical.. BUT:
https://antaresindustries.com/updates/antares-achieves-criticality

Antares today announced that its Mark-0 microreactor achieved initial criticality at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) under U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) authorization — making Antares the first private company to bring an advanced reactor to criticality under the DOE Reactor Pilot Program. The demonstration was conducted in partnership with DOE, INL, and BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT), with integration and observation support from the U.S. Army.

“Today’s achievement is a historic moment for American nuclear energy,” said U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright. “By bringing the first American non-light water privately developed reactor to criticality in more than four decades, Antares has shown what is possible when American innovation is unleashed. The Trump administration is proud to support the rebirth of America’s nuclear industry and ensuring Americans have access to affordable, reliable and secure energy for generations to come.”; 6/10/26, 9:36 PM
Mason G said...: "ensuring Americans have access to affordable, reliable and secure energy for generations to come.”

That's gonna piss off the left, you know.; 6/10/26, 9:42 PM
Jim at said...: I'm a Union man, myself.

I'll watch League if it's on, but Union is the only real rugby.

Been to several Seawolves games, but everybody's playing for second place this season. Nobody's stopping Chicago.; 6/10/26, 9:56 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: I think we can all agree that a US Marine who fought in a war for his country is a nazi because he has a tattoo. After all, no one gets a tattoo in 2000 that was related to 1945, without knowing exactly what it means.

That's why I wear a Uncle Joe Stalin t-shirt.; 6/10/26, 10:16 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: Love this clip with Perry Como and the buffalo bills. Perry obviously didn't want to do something so "Square" as singing barbershop quartet but he has so much fun with it anyways.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3FxG3wNzCA; 6/10/26, 10:18 PM
Jamie said...: I don't know if what I've watched is Union or League! We just happened on to a brewery in Houston and they were playing the Six Nations tournament back in April. We had never watched rugby before but it was fantastic! The action continues. No breaks.; 6/10/26, 10:22 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: Someone mentioned Rugby. Seen it and its cool. Especially the Rugby sevens. Doesn't have the strategy of Football, but its very fast paced.; 6/10/26, 10:26 PM
DINKY DAU 45 said...: Taylor Swift jumped out of her cute Knicks outfit,,SPURS GAG BLOW 29 POINT LEAD THEY SHOULD BE EMBARRASED.The Orange stain brought bad ju ju last night as he slept thru the game and was banned for any more games in NY... TOO MUCH CHAOS. Kicked some Texas butt tonight, even with the 10 foot guy; 6/10/26, 10:40 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: Its a long way to tipperary to the sweetest girl I Know.; 6/10/26, 10:48 PM
bagoh20 said...: "I think we can all agree that a US Marine who fought in a war for his country is a nazi because he has a tattoo."

He said he joined the military "to kill people" and found the experience excellent.; 6/10/26, 10:49 PM
bagoh20 said...: Trump's appearance at the game last night produced the highest viewership since 1998.; 6/10/26, 10:50 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: Spurs fans: Pack up your troubles:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SqabF3TAV0Y&list=RDSqabF3TAV0Y&start_radio=1; 6/10/26, 10:50 PM
Original Mike said...: I'm not familiar with US rugby. I watch Aussie and Kiwi rugby.; 6/10/26, 10:52 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: I hate US veterans who kill. Damn those D-day Vets! Those nazis!; 6/10/26, 10:52 PM
Original Mike said...: "I think we can all agree that a US Marine who fought in a war for his country is a nazi because he has a tattoo."

A nazi tatoo.; 6/10/26, 10:53 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: Just remember behind every US Marine who fought for his country might be a secret nazi. I always check to see if they support Israel first.; 6/10/26, 10:54 PM
bagoh20 said...: Not killed because it was his duty, but wanted to kill, and enjoyed it. That sounds kinda Naziish.; 6/10/26, 10:57 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: George Washington - No foreign Entanglements.
John Adams - America doesn't got abroad for monsters to destroy.
Teddy Roosevelt - America is not a polygot boarding house.
Herbert hoover - America First.

Damn those American nazis. Bet they had nazi tattoos!; 6/10/26, 10:57 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: Bless 'em all (fuck 'em all) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xf4jhb9p2v8&list=RDxf4jhb9p2v8&start_radio=1

More Nazis.; 6/10/26, 10:59 PM
bagoh20 said...: Can someone identify what Democrats stand for other than winning power. I thought they might have some other values, but the last few cycles have proven me wrong.; 6/10/26, 11:01 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: OMG a nazi tattoo. A NAZI tattoo in 2000. What can that mean? Oy vey - its another Holocaust.; 6/10/26, 11:02 PM
RCOCEAN II said...: Good night. Tired of responding to morons.; 6/10/26, 11:03 PM
bagoh20 said...: " A NAZI tattoo in 2000. What can that mean? "

Well, it ain't good.; 6/10/26, 11:04 PM
bagoh20 said...: Thank you.; 6/10/26, 11:09 PM
Iman said...: “Can someone identify what Democrats stand for other than winning power.”

Looting the Treasury and fleecing taxpayers for starters.; 6/10/26, 11:13 PM
Original Mike said...: "Tired of responding to morons."

Responding? YOU keep bringing it up. Again, and again, and again.; 6/10/26, 11:14 PM
Eva Marie said...: “Good night. Tired of responding to morons.“
Then stop talking to yourself.; 6/10/26, 11:14 PM
Eva Marie said...: I kid.; 6/10/26, 11:15 PM
Iman said...: Left a mountain of bullshit as the ocean washed away…; 6/10/26, 11:17 PM
Big Mike said...: Would a tsunami actually flip a cruise liner upside down.

Some modern cruise ships appear to be awfully top heavy.; 6/11/26, 12:05 AM
JIM said...: Calm waters reflecting a rising Sun is great photo.; 6/11/26, 12:32 AM
Vance said...: I note that Platner not only has the tattoo, he was boasting that he knew it was a topenkampf to the women he was raping. He also explicitly endorsed Hamas's Oct 7 genocide of the Jews. You know, standard Nazi things.

But to be fair, he says he's not one.. he's a communist instead, because they have such better track records. I note that RCOcean is fully on board with the commie because he has a nazi tattoo and hates the Jews and wants them dead. That's enough to earn RC's vote! And, apparently, lots of leftists votes too.; 6/11/26, 12:32 AM
Peachy said...: Platner is a commie-nazi.; 6/11/26, 12:33 AM
Jim at said...: I don't know if what I've watched is Union or League! - Jamie

The easiest way to determine if you're watching League or Union to look at the pitch/field. If there are numbers/yard markers? That's League.

Also, League requires a kick after a certain number of tackles. Union? No such requirement.

Scoring is slightly bit different, too ... but no need to get into that here.; 6/11/26, 12:44 AM
Jim at said...: I'm not familiar with US rugby. I watch Aussie and Kiwi rugby.

Major League Rugby (which is undergoing a bit of a transition as they're down to six teams) is Union.

I DVR League rugby from 'Down Under.'

And AFL.; 6/11/26, 12:57 AM
RCOCEAN II said...: Good night peachy; 6/11/26, 1:00 AM
Eva Marie said...: In your heart you know she’s right.; 6/11/26, 1:08 AM
Eva Marie said...: Variation on a theme, so to speak; 6/11/26, 1:18 AM
Kai Akker said...: #s 2, 3, 4. And for even more blues:
https://somervillemanning.com/exhibitions/philip-koch/#gallery-3; 6/11/26, 2:04 AM
hanuman_prodigious_leaper said...: So why try murderers for crimes ---- nothing will change the results!!; 6/11/26, 2:56 AM
Kai Akker said...: Leland said...
So as the conflict with Iran has become hot again, uncertainty in the market has caused people to pull out. None of that is how you predicted things would occur. You wrote gibberish.
6/10/26, 11:11 AM

That's very short-term, Toro. You have consistently mischaracterized everything I've said because you don't care for the message. I would guess you are still in denial, and why not? If what I am describing is correct, it is still at the very, very beginning of the trend change.

The markets have set themselves up for a major bear move to correct years of ebullience. It is as much a psychological process as anything else. That it took them six years to complete that process is nothing unusual, though it may have made it all seem endless, inevitable, and assured into the limitless future while it was ongoing. Having completed it, a drop in the averages from 30% to 75% is likely. It's not just these last 6 years that are likely to be "corrected." It may be the last 20, because they seem to have been all one bull market.

See especially the $NYA; $DJC; $DJU; the IJS/IJT small-caps; the half-forgotten Fidelity Magellan Fund, FMAGX; and also the EEM and Japan via the EWJ. These are good illustrations of the basic phenomenon, all variations on the same theme.; 6/11/26, 3:07 AM
Kai Akker said...: When stocks have reached the highest valuation levels in over 100 years of American financial history, which shows definite cyclicality, they are at a risky spot. Nothing could be more obvious.; 6/11/26, 3:16 AM
wendybar said...: Wouldn't surprise me actually....

https://x.com/TheBabylonBee/status/2064784713949024645?s=20; 6/11/26, 5:00 AM
tim maguire said...: Iman said...“So a bunch of idiots donated $600,000 to you for your legal defense?…and your family spent it all

Given the facts of the case, this probably was the best way to spend the money.; 6/11/26, 5:21 AM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: Here’s that ‘SpaceX’s IPO is overvalued by 114%’ research in full ~ Alphavillle
https://giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/actions/redeem/6d555ecb-de3a-4b62-98fd-fb89362c0f03

There is no math that makes the valuation work aside from the index shenanigans.

At a $1.8T valuation for a company with this much risk, you should be expecting a healthy return, despite the fact most investors today are pricing the Mag 7 equity below debt rates. I digress.

If you want a 15% return on your money at a $1.8T valuation, SpaceX needs to generate $270B per year of free cash flow and grow that at least along with inflation forever. Assuming a very generous 25% free cash flow margin, it needs to bring in $1.1T in revenue today, not in decades, and grow that at least along with inflation. 2025 total revenue was $19B. The business needs to grow by a factor of 58x to justify today's price.

If it's a rocket business, at say $30M revenue per launch it needs to do some 37,000 launches per year. 100 per day. The opening scene of Wall-E comes to mind.

Most of its current revenue comes from Starlink. Let's call it $2,000 per year per subscriber. So it needs 550M subscribers close to $200 per month for subpar service. service. If we get that down to competitive prices it needs over 1 billion subscribers. Roughly 12% of the world's population, most of which doesn't make $2,000 per year in income.

AI data centers, X, whatever other nonsense gets added will contribute as well. But those businesses will also need to generate gargantuan numbers. Just as all of its AI competitors will. Every human on earth will need to be a paying customer.

No matter how you slice it there's no way SpaceX will ever grow into today's valuation. Launches can't possibly do it. AI can't. So Starlink is all there's left. And there isn't a large enough global population that makes enough money to pay Starlink to ever get to the revenue needed, particularly since competition is a thing. AI will become a commodity just as telecom is. Commodity companies don't make 25% free cash flow margins, so the revenue numbers need to be even larger and more impossible.; 6/11/26, 5:46 AM
Breezy said...: #3 and #4 are the best imo. If I were to paint something based on them, I’d pair the third’s land with ducks with the fourth’s clouds.; 6/11/26, 5:46 AM
Breezy said...: Mail-in ballot election systems are fraud factories. This has been true forever. Until mail-in is curtailed to only hardship cases, fraud will decide the outcome.; 6/11/26, 5:49 AM
Leland said...: If it was true that stocks always retract after reaching highest levels, then they would never increase. Again, you spout gibberish as reasoned discourse. I explained yesterday’s drop to actual events, and anyone can see the same thing in March and April followed by return to a steady increase seen earlier in the year. Nothing you have said explains it. It took a week and the war getting hot for your bullshit to seem true.; 6/11/26, 5:51 AM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: Anyone recall the fully self driving Tesla?

The vision in the S-1 filing is not cheap space launches, cheap global internet, or even working GenAI, it’s a fantasy removed from physical reality. Even more galling, the public is expected to price it as if it’s a certainty. No thank you.

Starlink is an interesting business opportunity. The immediate challengers are probably telcos (wired and cellular data) rather than other satellite internet providers. But it makes $4bn profit on $12bn revenue. It takes a lot of imagination to describe that as worth $1T.

All the people talking up the IPO, besides the underwriting banks, apparently acquired their shares at a fraction of the IPO price. Of course they are enthusiastic.The one honest guy quoted, almost as a footnote, was Morningstar's Owens spoiling the party.

I wish investors luck. They will need it.; 6/11/26, 5:59 AM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: Here’s a link to the full note on SpaceX valuation: https://d1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net/production/uploaded-files/OneSmallStepForSpaceX_060826-1ff7873c-8c12-4540-b45a-60f3a9051851.pdf

and here’s its note on Starlink market sizing: https://d1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net/production/uploaded-files/Our_Realistic_Starlink_Market_Sizing-915d25bb-5968-4e1f-ae0b-ad5999a9aa87.pdf

Space cadets and attached bankers, do please tell us in the comments what Morningstar gets wrong.; 6/11/26, 6:03 AM
Humperdink said...: Good grief RCO, give it a rest. Repetition does not win an argument. Spread your Jew hatred else where. There’s an audience for you out there somewhere. Say Gaza ……; 6/11/26, 6:08 AM
Indefinitely Extended Excursion™️ said...: The helicopter incident isn’t the heart of this, the continued land grab in Lebanon is the biggest violation of the ceasefire and its difficult to see how things can hold with the current Israel administration still unsatisfied.; 6/11/26, 6:25 AM
imTay said...: LOL

https://apnews.com/video/u-s-defense-secretary-pete-hegseth-arrives-in-cuba-in-shorts-and-t-shirt-581932eb57dd4859b85a40f1aff68832; 6/11/26, 7:14 AM
imTay said...: It's not "Jew Hatred" to oppose the US getting dragged into a war that serves only Israeli interests. Most Jewish Americans really really dislike what Israel is doing, and if you think that criticism of Israel is "Jew hatred" I would be willing to bet that you don't actually know any Jewish American in real life.

What you are repeating is just Israeli propaganda. It's the "no true Scotsman" fallacy, the idea that you can't be Jewish unless you believe in Israel's wars of aggression agains their neighbors.; 6/11/26, 7:17 AM
Original Mike said...: Jim at said...
"Major League Rugby (which is undergoing a bit of a transition as they're down to six teams) is Union."

Ahh. Thanks!

"I DVR League rugby from 'Down Under.'
And AFL."

We signed up for a higher tier from our cable company so we could watch rugby and AFL from Oz. Then they moved it to an even higher tier. I've been meaning to look for a streaming service. When we're in Sydney, we usually attend an NRL game.

Another distinction between Union and League is that the scrums in League are uncontested (i.e. fake). They just go through the motions. I once asked a bartender in Sydney what that's about. He just rolled his eyes.

It's surprising how many Aussies and Kiwis follow American NFL football.; 6/11/26, 7:30 AM
boatbuilder said...: The markets have set themselves up for a major bear move to correct years of ebullience. It is as much a psychological process as anything else. That it took them six years to complete that process is nothing unusual, though it may have made it all seem endless, inevitable, and assured into the limitless future while it was ongoing. Having completed it, a drop in the averages from 30% to 75% is likely. It's not just these last 6 years that are likely to be "corrected." It may be the last 20, because they seem to have been all one bull market.

6 years, 20 years, what's the difference?

Economists have correctly predicted 15 of the last 3 recessions.

At some point, your "prediction" will come true. It might be this year, it might be 15 years from now.

Google AI: f you invested $\$1,000$ in an S&P 500 index fund at the beginning of 2006, your investment would be worth roughly $\$7,491$ by mid-2026. This assumes an average annualized return of about 10.4% and that all dividends were automatically reinvested.

Note that that includes the wipeout of 2008.

Your "prediction" is merely doomsaying. Or as Keynes was supposed to have said, "In the long run we are all dead."; 6/11/26, 7:33 AM
Original Mike said...: Kai Akker - Are you a young-un? Don't mean to be rude, just curious.; 6/11/26, 7:42 AM
Kai Akker said...: --- If it was true that stocks always retract after reaching highest levels, then they would never increase.

Talk about gibberish.; 6/11/26, 8:31 AM
Kai Akker said...: --- Kai Akker - Are you a young-un? Don't mean to be rude, just curious. [OriginalMike]

LOL. Why don't you just make a point?

At a huge financial peak, which is where I strongly believe the U.S. (and some other countries) stand right now, any argument that the prosperity it has generated might get cut back is unwelcome to the vast majority.

But the '50s-'60s -- the Go-Go Years, the One-Decision stocks -- did yield to a long bad period in which stagflation reduced the purchasing power of the Dow Industrials by about 80%. It happens.; 6/11/26, 8:37 AM
narciso said...: You discovered the business cycle congratulations; 6/11/26, 8:44 AM
Kai Akker said...: --- Note that that [10.4% returns] includes the wipeout of 2008.

Boatbuilder, there were decades when stocks were the second, third, or nth-last choice for "widows and orphans" portfolios because long-term returns from bonds had far outperformed stocks.

--- Your "prediction" is merely doomsaying. Or as Keynes was supposed to have said, "In the long run we are all dead."

I disagree. But yours is no argument at all. Why do anything? We are mortal.; 6/11/26, 8:45 AM
Kai Akker said...: ---- You discovered the business cycle congratulations [narciso]

No. I didn't discover anything, and this is more than the business cycle. Kibitz on, dude.; 6/11/26, 8:50 AM
Leland said...: I have to admit, I didn’t expect the market to be doing what it is doing this morning.; 6/11/26, 9:06 AM
Original Mike said...: "LOL. Why don't you just make a point?"

My point is I want to know where you're coming from.

Yeah, the market is overvalued. Yeah, we're headed for a correction. When it comes is unpredictable. These things usually go on a lot longer than seems reasonable. This one appears to be the same.

But if you keep predicting the downturn you're going to be "right". Maybe sooner, maybe later. But don't fool yourself that you were prescient.; 6/11/26, 9:08 AM
Kai Akker said...: ---- 6 years, 20 years, what's the difference? [Boatbuilder]

This is a big point. Is your sarcasm just meant to ridicule the thought? The 6 years is the third upleg since the Internet Bubble burst in 2000. That took 2+ years to clean up, many internet stocks went to zero, NASDAQ fell -80%, and blue chips -50%-60%.

So the lows in 2002, once those decks had been cleared, became the floor of all that followed. This isn't true of every individual stock, by any means, but it shows up a helluva lot. The first upleg ran from those 2002 lows to the credit/housing bubble peak of 2007. The market corrected hard to 2009, but it then proceeded to march on upwards in the long, long second upleg of 2009 to the pre-pandemic peak of early 2020.

Two legs, then. Then, In one month, the averages dove -35% and then that 6-year upleg -- the third of these uplegs -- got underway. In the teeth of enormous bad news and economic shakeup. But also during a period of extraordinary credit and currency flooding from both the Fed and the elected government.

So it is the big risk here that the markets will be correcting not merely the 6-year upleg, but a lot more from the 20 (OK, from 2002 to 2026, the 24) years of that tremendous financial expansion.

This backdrop occurred partly because stock valuations kept rising along with the generally upward move in earnings. Stock performance was much greater than fundamental performance. Investors have paid ever-higher multiples and other valuation metrics for a lower-growth-rate of cash flow and business operations.

And here we are.; 6/11/26, 9:08 AM
Original Mike said...: For the record, I was 100% stocks for the entirety of my accumulation phase. Now 70 and retired, I am 50/50 stocks and "cash". A good downturn might be to my advantage; I have a lot of money tied up in tax-deferred vehicles. Roths didn't exist during most of my career. I did well converting all I had in 2008. Wouldn't mind repeating that.; 6/11/26, 9:15 AM
bagoh20 said...: I've made millions in the stock market by ignoring people who think they have it figured out. All of my worst investments were early on when I listened to them.; 6/11/26, 9:51 AM
Original Mike said...: I've been quite conservative for a while now because I "agree" with Kai re: valuations. Certainly hasn't worked out for me so far. But I'm sure we'll be "right" any day now, Kai.; 6/11/26, 10:01 AM