From "How Japan Lost 3 Million People in Five Years" (NYT).
I'd like to hear something of what Japanese experts think about mass immigration as a solution.
May 29, 2026
"Opening Japan’s doors more widely to foreigners could help offset the declines. But the government has long taken a cautious approach to immigration..."
"... and nationalist politicians and commentators have gained influence recently with a 'Japan First' agenda. 'Japan has now reached a level where this kind of decline is not reversible in the short- or medium-run' said James Raymo, a professor of sociology at Princeton University who studies Japan. 'It simply will not happen in the absence of mass immigration.'... Professor Raymo said the Japanese government’s efforts to promote fertility had 'not really moved the needle.' He said that ultimately Japan could provide lessons for other governments...."
From "How Japan Lost 3 Million People in Five Years" (NYT).
From "How Japan Lost 3 Million People in Five Years" (NYT).
Posts
58 comments:
If they do this, there won't be a single Shinto shrine left in the country. Muslim immigrants have already burned several.
They could force their women to crank out kids, go into a wartime production mode, mobilize the machinery of reproduction, only instead of war machines, they could make more Japanese.
Just brainstorming...
I'm sure there must be some downsides I haven't considered.
Robots.
Japanese people take well to instructions, not suggestions.
Opening their borders to mass migration would be national suicide for the Japanese and their culture. If more immigration is the path chosen, it would have to be limited to single women of child-bearing ages who have already agreed to marry a Japanese male and this only works if the primary driver of the fertility drop is Japanese females themselves- an assertion for which I have seen no proof. It may be quite likely that nothing stops the drop in native Japanese during the next 40 years.
He said that ultimately Japan could provide lessons for other governments...
Aren't most Western governments already doing what they're urging Japan to do? What's left to learn?
I'd like to hear something of what Japanese experts think about mass immigration as a solution.
Grok has a list. Beginning with:
* Institute of Population and Social Security Research projects foreigners reaching 10-14% of population by 2070.
* Most experts favor more immigration to fill labor shortages, but urge strong integration efforts and fear an inflow of unskilled labor.
* They say Japan has to make more babies, but don't know how to make that happen.
In summary, Japanese experts see controlled, integrated immigration as a pragmatic part of the response—essential for labor and economic vitality but secondary to boosting births and efficiency. Debate centers on “how” (scale, selection, support) rather than “whether,” amid caution about preserving social harmony. Views evolve with data, but consensus favors caution and evidence over rapid openness.
Immigration will keep the island populated, but that's not the actual problem. (Who cares if the island stays populated? Why would that be something anybody cares about?)
The problem is maintaining Japanese-ness; keeping their culture a thing that exists in the world. For that, they will have to give up one aspect of their culture--misogyny. Women will not become more interested in having children until they get a more equal stake in their home-life.
the 'experts' are wrong.
maybe having 5 kids and 4 dying was the old way.
now have one.
same outcome
Immigration can work. Key question is from where and how good are background checks.
"They say Japan has to make more babies, but don't know how to make that happen."
There's lots of 'how-to' vids on the internet.
In all seriousness, Japan is riding the same tide that all WEIRD countries are. Permanent and irreversible population decline as the Boomers of each country and their kids age out.
If the Japanese are stupid enough to allow large-scale immigration from Islamia, they'll deserve what they get.
Western Civ--it was great while it lasted but it's 'last call' before long.
Mass immigration is simply a substitution. Simply another form of destructor to choose from. A choice between dignified and undignified declines.
I'm not a Japan expert but I've spent a lot of time there, and I think a solution lies in the extremely potent cultural influence of the Chrysanthemum Throne. Per Aggie's comment regarding "instruction", some kind of tectonic and historical proclamation or edict from the Imperial Family of the same magnitude as the Taika Reforms, Sakoku Edict, or infamous radio statement of surrender from Hirohito regarding this issue could have the desired effect.
The amount of indigenous Japanese cultural power invested in the Imperial Household is immense, as is the amount of reverence the Japanese still have for the throne. The fundamental issue is entirely cultural, and the Imperial Household is still considered both the fount and protector of Japanese culture.
What Japan needs is another Meiji paired with an equally potent pronouncement of similar magnitude. Something that would shift their cultural paradigm similar to other major landmarks in their history that changed them fundamentally while simultaneously preserving the essence of their cultural character. I believe the Imperial family has the societal power to do this.
I hope I can still get parts.
Who decides what is the optimal number of Japanese?
Who decides what is the optimal number of Japanese?
The immigrants will decide that.
Google map Tokyo...
Losing a few million in population is fine.
this is just more propaganda to get Japan to soros their immigration.
Isn't AI and robotics going to make up for the declining populations?
The population density of Japan is very high, especially considering that so much of the land is not really useful for farming or much of anything else. What is the 'right' population level for Japan? There is no answer. In terms of the shift taking place, I'm pretty sure Japanese culture will work out a solution. Probably humanoid robots, and robots in general. Somewhere between the current population levels and, say, 70 million they need to figure out a way to get the fertility level back to replacement. So will all Western nations who decline to open the immigration floodgates.
Japan and South Korea will probably lead the way in establishing a Ministry of Fertility and mandatory meet and greets for twenty somethings.
Yah it’s not really a problem but like Bob says a bit of a panic if I can’t get parts. Hopefully the Chinese will make up the gap…
Don't do it. Japan is in many ways a model society, especially high trust. That's a direct result of the homogenized culture. Immigration may solve a problem, but it will cause far more.
National problems caused by low birth rates should be addressed by getting rid of the things that were designed to be supported by high birth rates. At some point, you need to to design your society to be sustainable without continuous population growth. That's a dead end.
The best solution would be to develop a highly effective Spanish fly drug that only works on women, and put it in the water system.
I half expect the ghost of Commodore Perry to sail into Tokyo Bay to demand, You will take these ten million Somalians.
bagoh20 said...
"Don't do it. Japan is in many ways a model society, especially high trust. That's a direct result of the homogenized culture."
"Lack of Diversity is our Strength."
Closed
Japan, in terms of percent population and resources loss, dealt with a situation worse than this 80 years ago and figured it out. I doubt they are as worried as Ivy League professors and the NYT. California and New York on the other hand…
The warning signs are indirect, but unmistakable. The same thing is happening in other countries, notably France and Spain. Rural small towns are being dis-inhabited as the old people die off, and as the young people are gravitating toward cities. Not just because they are exciting and stimulating, or because they offer opportunities. It's because the small rural areas they were born to, are empty. Next to come is the fading away of a country's heritage, and worse, the loss of contribution of agriculture and husbandry to the food supply, to the harvest of natural resources. It's a vicious cycle, a hollowing out, that presages collapse.
The easy solution was to import a population - but we can see the evidence on how that works out: A drain on public coffers and a concentration of unmanageable undesirables in already highly-populated cities. A resurgence in ghettos. The fruit of stupid policy makers.
The harder solution is to re-invest in national culture, pride of homeland, and the dreaded word: Populism. It makes for stronger countries, and weaker globalists. It's coming, and the wiser countries will be out in front.
Perhaps cultures that can't manage to do what a sea slug can do - procreate - deserve to be replaced.
Even countries like Iran now have super low birth rates.
We probably should get used to falling populations.
If you want to solve this problem, you are going to have to make having kids be BETTER than not having kids.
This means you must take away leisure time from childless people and transfer it to families.
Imagine all the hipsters being forced to do chores for Mormon families one day a week.
Muslims are breeding like Rabbits. Maybe we should take a lesson from them and rescind women's "reproductive rights." Just spit ballin' here.
It's not like population declines haven't happened before. The Black Death took out 30% or more of the population of the British Isles from in a little less than a decade 1346-54 ( >50% if you're reading historians; around 30% is you're reading archeologists).
The plague was a terrible disaster, but you know what wasn't a terrible disaster? The resulting 40% increase in rural laborer wages, which in turn was a huge factor in the "Rise of the Middle Class," a subsequent increase in birth rates, and a demographically very young and energetic Europe at the end of the 14th century, all of which contributed to the socio-cultural-economic shift that we call the Renaissance after 1000 years of the Middle Ages.
Amazingly, in the present day Japan and Europe (and soon China and hopefully us), got the population decline without the mass death by plague (though not for lack of trying by the World EcoHealth Alliance and others). If we can prevent our 'betters' from importing the hordes, we should see a similar rise in wages and, as a response, and increase in family size, producing young, energetic societies with strong cultural foundations to build on (rather than lowest common denominator globalist slop).
I'll probably be dead before that re-birth (perhaps even a "Renaissance") really gets going, but it will be nice to be able to see the beginnings of it.
Clear out the invading 'migrants,' choke off the post-1965 flood of immigration to the tiniest trickle of one-of-a-kind skills and people who marry American citizens, and a lot of good things will happen. If that makes my old age a little more expensive and challenging, it's a price well worth paying.
Robots.
On one had, AI is going to make most jobs obsolete. OTOH, Japan needs to import workers. This does not compute.
Anyway, Japan has 120 million people on land mass the size of California. They have too many people. What they really need to restructure society so women will do their jobs - which is to have kids. Its rather stupid to incentivize women to work as engineers or police men, or Corporate exces instead of being mothers.
Peachy@10.16
Exactly
The NYTs - because they are open borders liberals - want the USA to have more migrants, so they cheerlead for immigration in every country. Oh wait, except for Israel, because that's different. As always.
Its better to have 100 million Japanese in a country that is Japanese, then have 140 million people with 30 million foreigners causing problems that will never be solved.
God, I love Japan. Two-time resident. Best years of my life. One set of rules. EVERYONE knows the rules. EVERYONE honors the rules.
Japan is worth saving but the only people who can save it are the Japanese.
Not one muslim. EVER. Don't even give 'em tourist visas. As for the rest of the world's huddled masses - huddle somewhere else. Hi Dozo!
Might be better to change Japanese culture a bit internally. They need to breed more. Importing the third world would ruin the joint.
"Not one muslim. EVER."
I imagine (hope) they've watched the rest of the world's experience and understand that.
Imagine all the hipsters being forced to do chores for Mormon families one day a week.
No sane Mormon would take that deal. Way less work to do it yourself.
In 1950, the population of Japan was 84 million. It's been shrinking from 128 million since 2009. In 2100, they expect it to be around 76.5 million. Think of how national infrastructure crumbles when there isn't a working tax base to support it, followed by the national economy, followed by national defense etc. etc. Population sustainment of a viable, contributing base is going to be the #1 issue in the coming decade, I think. All of our modern policy thinking is driven by a growth model.
"Might be better to change Japanese culture a bit internally."
The Japanese Imperial Family - stricken as they are by some of these very same issues - could be the innovators of that change. In fact they should be, it's quite literally one of their implied duties to the Kami. If they won't then they should shrink to insignificance along with their people, perhaps even going extinct earlier.
It certainly is not working well in Europe, another region that is in demographic decline. Bringing in foreigners with different, often inimical customs and values does not help a nation's people; it only helps the invaders.
"I'm turning Japanese, I really think so."
Robots are their answer.
Inviting immigrants who don’t respect your culture and traditions is a prescription for disaster. Just look at Europe (and the USA under Biden).
Having kids will never be "better" than the convenient and fun life without them. I have 5. I know. Even living near the federal poverty level, kids on medicaid, no savings, no health insurance, no retirement... Life is so much better with them, I would bot trade the difficulty of the last 18 years for Elon Musk's wealth. Life is freaking hard. Kids makes it harder. So long as people maintain their addiction to carbohydrate ease, yhe birth rate will keep dropping.
“In all seriousness, Japan is riding the same tide that all WEIRD countries are. Permanent and irreversible population decline as the Boomers of each country and their kids age”
I doubt that Japan had a real Baby Boom after WW II. They lost. Culturally, they probably lost worse than the Germans. Little one right after the war. But not the massive “pig in a python” experienced by the Anglosphere (excluding GB).
* Most experts favor more immigration to fill labor shortages
hmmm..
let's Stipulate, for the sake of Argument, that we DO need to fill these labor "shortages"..
How, The HELL does importing people with an IQ of 82 help?
Seriously..
are these invaders (Sorry, i meant to say immigrants and refugees)
are they Supposed to work?
HOW?
can they read, or write?
i don't mean in English, or Japanese, or whatever;
i mean: can they read, or write; IN ANY LANGUAGE AT ALL?
if they don't know how to use a toilet; HOW are they going to do a job?
What country can’t be improved by the mass importation of rapey mooching Muslims? At least their women put out when it come to cranking out offspring. A better solution is to send the more intelligent white men to the various corners of the Third World to upgrade the genetic pool. Or simply give up and let the Indians, Pakis, and Africans over run the world. A few thousand years of their rich cultures. And something new might emerge.
You're probably right, Bruce--I was shooting from the hip and haven't researched the details. Boom or not, the postwar generations are passing everywhere and being only partially replaced.
In all these discussions I try to remember Martin van Creveld's limerick--
A trend is a trend is a trend.
The question is--will it bend?
Or be pushed off course
By an unforeseen force
And come to a premature end?
I recall an article (probably in Teh New Republic) from 25 or 30 years ago about the ehr, uhm, assimilation of the new migrants--i.e. not the Turkish gastarbeiter but the pathetic refugee from poverty and oppression.
IIRC, the emblematic detail was Mercedes, or BMW, who had one Syrian or Afghan employee at the end of the assembly line, attaching the hood ornament.
rather than cradle to grave socialist ponzi schemes - perhaps it's time for something better. no - not communism.
Japanese are educated and learn from an early age to be respectful and value work. That works in their favor. Unlike the repulsive leftwing usa.
Aggie said...
"...I doubt that Japan had a real Baby Boom after WW II...."
But Japan did have a baby boom after WWII, you can see it as plain as day on the video I linked. It's right at the beginning; the country experienced its all time highest birthrates just before 1950. It might not have been on the scale of the US or its allies, but it's there. I wonder if it's a product of The Occupation by MacArthur, and the attendant rebuilding.
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