"It offers grandparental leave. It furnishes reduced mortgage rates to married couples planning families. It provides parents $30,000 loans — which don’t need to be repaid if they have three or more children. On Oct. 1, all women with three children gained lifetime personal income tax exemptions. Next year, mothers under 40 with two kids will become exempt as well. 'For the long-term survival of a nation, it is worthwhile,' said Hungary’s culture minister, Balazs Hanko...."
From "Can governments actually spark a baby boom? These countries are trying. Governments are testing whether a mix of perks, incentives and ideology might reverse shrinking population trends. Here’s what they’ve learned" (WaPo).
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47 comments:
Well, good. There are only 8.3 billion people in the world; we definitely need more. Make room, make room!
The corollary to this is that the U.S. spends less than 5% of GDP on defense.
Are we blaming women too much? I'm down in Florida and I can't help but notice that a lot of the men are, notwithstanding the super trucks and guns, very flabby and low T.
There are policies that promote reproduction of the species, and policies that impede it.
Promoting abortion as a good thing, even up to birth, is an impediment. Promoting climate catastrophism is an impediment. (I have had friends tell me their kids won't be having kids, because of climate change fears). Promoting transgenderism is an impediment (trannies either can't or won't reproduce, mostly). Promoting city life over suburban is an impediment (too crowded for comfortable, safe child-raising). Most Democrat policies are impediments, which is reflected in their overall failure to reproduce, compared to conservative families.
On the other hand, I've not seen research that shows pro-natalist policies actually are very effective. Lots of baby-starved populations are trying lots of things; maybe time will tell what works.
“ The corollary to this is that the U.S. spends less than 5% of GDP on defense.”
Bet you didn’t know that.
"...Yet decisions about childbirth are deeply personal, sometimes beyond the reach of policymaking....."
Always, that impulse to be in control. Maybe dictating with policy isn't the answer? Maye incentivizing, educating, re-shaping societal priorities and giving it some time is the more sensible approach?
"...But the lesson so far from Europe is that even enormous government programs might yield just fractional change. ..." 'So far', meaning what, I wonder? How long have these policies been in place and functioning? It would seem this is a salient fact, but it goes unmentioned. I would have guessed that at least a generation must pass before such a big shift in societal policy could take root. When did China drop its '1 child' policy, 10 years ago? The net effect, since? Not addressed.
Archived here: https://archive.ph/f9lqp#selection-555.0-555.95
Sorry to see Hungary waste its money when it could go the Ukraine to kill ruskiees or make immigrants from the 3rd world more comfey and happy.
Sounds like an interesting experiment.
"It offers... It furnishes... It provides..."
I'm wondering how much fraud these policies would enable here in the US. Probably more than could be measured. Look at what happened in Minnesota, where they were supposedly just trying to feed some hungry kids. How many millions/billions of dollars flushed down the toilet there?
Coming soon to a midterm near you.
Call it the "Stay Hungary" policy?
Smilin' Jack said...
“Well, good. There are only 8.3 billion people in the world; we definitely need more. Make room, make room!”
The population of Hungary is 9.6 million, or just over 1/10th of 1% of the global total. I think the future can handle having Hungarian culture and people in it.
Funny how the European Union is fining Hungary for putting its people first.
We have a decades long longitudinal study called food stamps. Of course incentives work. They often have unintended consequences. Hungary will not like the consequences.
John J said...
We have a decades long longitudinal study called food stamps. Of course incentives work. They often have unintended consequences. Hungary will not like the consequences.
Food stamps failed because they were tied to low income and no father in the house. Their goal was to destroy the family which they did.
Subsidies tied to intact families having kids would turn out differently.
Well, at least they're doing something. If we assume that the low birthrate crisis is real, then this is a good thing.
Everything we have done here in the US is discourage more kids.
Maybe they could do something about that weird language of theirs. Although everybody below a certain age seems to speak English, that is everybody who was educated after the Russians left.
Achilles said: Food stamps failed because they were tied to low income and no father in the house. Their goal was to destroy the family which they did.
First, we must identify the obvious: Which came first, the chicken or the egg? SNAP has not affected our declining birth rate trend.
But as long as we are shutting down free food, we could close food banks and other such programs as well. Let's starve those kids!
gadfly said...
Achilles said: Food stamps failed because they were tied to low income and no father in the house. Their goal was to destroy the family which they did.
First, we must identify the obvious: Which came first, the chicken or the egg? SNAP has not affected our declining birth rate trend.
But as long as we are shutting down free food, we could close food banks and other such programs as well. Let's starve those kids!
When you are a retard you attack motives because you don't really understand enough to know how the world works.
Dumber than dirt and not the good
8.3 billion if you believe all the official government numbers.
I don't.
I think food banks for the poor are a good idea as long as they are allowed to screen out those who they believe are taking advantage of the generosity of others.
Who should pay for the food banks? Or for the suggested screening of clients?
Voluntary contributions.
Good on ya, Magyars. May your policies succeed, and serve as an example to your neighbors.
Leftists are largely oblivious to, or wilfully blind to, the inevitability of unintended consequences of governmental actions.
That is, people respond to incentives, but often not in the way intended or foreseen. Good intentions - like supposedly feeding starving kids - matter none.
France has had similar policies for a very long time, Hungary is certainly not a pioneer in this. I think the current system goes back to @1956 though modified several times. There were others going back to after WWI. The French were concerned about their low birth rate since the 19th century. I dont think they came to the unambiguous conclusion that the policies work, though they might have. Unclear.
French birth rate ( In 2024 1.62 (or 1.59?) vs Hungary 1.38 for example) is the highest in the EU and it has been so for decades, so it might indeed work.
Comments on the effect of the French natalist policies-
https://ifstudies.org/blog/does-pronatal-policy-work-it-did-in-france
Wah! Wah! Why can’t we be more like _____? Today is Hungary’s turn…
Note that the US tax system is also already quite pro-natalist through the dependents system and child tax credits, and indirect tax benefits for educational expenses etc.
If it's about preserving 'the nation' (and the culture that goes with it) why not take a cue from Korea. Start exporting good entertainment like they did with Kdramas. A few years of Hdramas will see many women venturing to Hungary to snag a hot Hungarian man. Grok tells me birth rates in South Korea are edging up a bit.
"Note that the US tax system is also already quite pro-natalist"
That's only part of the picture. An anti-natlist factor is that between Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid we've socialized care for the elderly, removing one of the benefits of having children. Among other things, people get the same old age benefits regardless of how many children they have, and not coincidentally we've begun not having enough children to support the system. If we are going to keep the Social Security system, maybe we need to reward those who have children with higher benefits.
French birth rate... is the highest in the EU
Thanks to African migrants.
"Thanks to African migrants"
In part, probably. France doesnt make it easy to distinguish. However this was also true before there were significant numbers of African migrants.
dont let Bill Gates hear of this
"The corollary to this is that the U.S. spends less than 5% of GDP on defense."
Yet, we spend far too much on "defense," so-called, and far too little on everything else.
Trump and his acolytes always point to Orban as their friend and role model. I wonder what they admire more. Orban’s corruption or his anti democratic policies?
The US spends approximately 20% of GDP on welfare. I.e., "family policies."
The people who should be having babies have to pay taxes to pay for that. So they work instead of having babies.
What is the point here?
You want more babies?--lower taxes on productive people. Stop spending money to promote indolence.
The US spends enormous amounts on literally everything, public or private, by any global or historical standard. Coming in from the outside it seems almost absurd.
Take Medical services. The US spends far more than even the highest spending First World economies, to no discernible effect in outcomes. To complain that the US medical field is under-resourced (and @85% of it is already "socialized") is just silly.
Much of the problem is a depraved bureaucratic/legal/professional system with no checks and balances and no professionalism. The fact that socialistic Euros can deliver efficient and effective medical systems, while over-resourced socialistic Americans cannot - well, the Euros are simply better at it personally and collectively. The Euros who run these systems are better people.
The US does better at cutting edge technology and strictly private ventures - mostly. But even here there is visible deterioration.
https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/electric-power/052025-us-gas-fired-turbine-wait-times-as-much-as-seven-years-costs-up-sharply
The model should rather be France. The Gaullists were vastly effective at a lot of things. Electric power for instance.
Kak: "Trump and his acolytes always point to Orban as their friend and role model. I wonder what they admire more. Orban’s corruption or his anti democratic policies?"
Zelenskyy: corruption, anti-democratic policies, fearing his fellow Slavs who were part of the same country with him until 30 years ago. Great guy!
Orban: corruption (assuming arguendo), anti-democratic policies (do.), fearing completely non-European and definitely non-Hungarian people who have never been part of his country. Evil!
WTF? CC, JSM
Buwaya: "The Gaullists were vastly effective at a lot of things"
And the Gauloises. Main reason French women didn't get fat. So French men wanted to impregnate them. CC, JSM
before there were significant numbers of African migrants.
I was including Algerians.
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