That's a free-access link, so you can read the details and form an opinion over whether to trust this rather than all that other polling and poll analysis that found a "continued leftward march of White, college-educated voters," supposedly "the only major racial subgroup shifting left," which "reinforced existing fears among Democrats that they were increasingly appealing to educated White voters with their policies and message at the exclusion of other groups."
Other headings at that link: "The gender gap was real," "Democrats held up better with rural voters than with urban voters," and "Democrats gained ground with engaged voters."
I don't trust any of this material. The Democratic Party has a big problem and must rebuild itself, but how? By increasing its appeal to white, college-educated voters, because that's actually where the problem is?
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71 comments:
It's only "weird" if you studiously avoid examining the issues driving the trend.
The Democratic Party has a big problem and must rebuild itself, but how?
Step one is to the purge the radical, woke, anti-America wing. Oh wait, that's who's in the drivers seat. Never mind.
One might infer the college educated group white women group was the strongest with Democrats and therefore had the largest pool of possible defectors. Everyone else had already figured it out.
Lies so big only highly educated people would believe is the real issue I suppose…
One reason "College educated" whites vote Democrat more than other whites is that large numbers of them are employed by the Medical industry and the Education industry. Both of which are funded mostly by Government. And both of which are majority female, and are free from cold brutal winds of the "free market".
If you're a school teacher or nurse, you pretty much have a job for life. And no Corporate CEO is going to fire you or cut your pay because of the "bottom line". Both industries also have strong unions and associations for College educated people.
They see all the crazy Progressive women fighting to kill their babies and save the terrorists.
And of course there are lots of jobs for College educated people in local, state, and Federal Government. Needless to say most them are D's.
They might say they ain't tellin’ lies to themselves
They might say they always try their best
They might say they only need a rest
They might say they can only fool themselves
There is a gender gap and it exists in all groups. Black women will vote 95 percent D, Black men 85-90 percent. Jews will vote 3-1 Democrat, but among Jewish women its more like 4-1.
And course, white women always vote Democrat by 5-10 points. Jews, blacks, and other minorites are voting based on racial group interests. "The Democrats are good for the X". What goes on in white women's head is anyone's guess. I assume not much.
I noticed that among all the male traitors and backstabbers in Trump's first administration, all their wives were "anti-Trump". Pence and Coates wives, in particular, were known to despise and hate Trump.
“ The Democratic Party has a big problem and must rebuild itself, but how?”
The Dems will never change. The Dem party must be driven into non-existence. Step on their throats.
The Democrats need to learn to appeal to the not-aggrieved class of people. They've forgotten that most Americans do not consider themselves victims. And they have spent decades now- literally decades- looking for, and teaching people how to become more aggrieved about their place in life.
Americans are drawn to optimistic, success driven people. Not a party that tells them they are downtrodden and it's all because of that other guy.
But here's the catch. Fake optimism, fake Democrats are so easy to sniff out. See Tim Walz as an example. They've got to clean house and develop actual people. Real people with real thoughts of their own. Not something generated by the same group of political consultants who have been generating the same BS for decades- barely even changing the verbiage.
It'll take years to clean the Dem house. But they have to do it if they want to remain an active party. Otherwise we'll be talking about that party that used to be around...what were they called...?
WaPo AI summary of comments. Unhinged.
“Conversation summary
The comments on the Catalist analysis of the 2024 election reveal a strong sentiment that Donald Trump's victory was influenced by factors such as racism, misogyny, and voter suppression. Many commenters express disbelief that Trump, despite his controversial history, could win against Kamala Harris, attributing his success to a backlash against a female, Black candidate. There is also criticism of the Democratic Party's strategy, with some suggesting that the party's focus on progressive issues alienated certain voter demographics. Additionally, concerns about voter turnout and the impact of misinformation and propaganda are highlighted as significant factors in the election outcome.”
The Dem party is hopeless. It deserves to die.
Notably, some college-educated white women are starting to disassociate from the Democrat Party. Even those who are feminists, support gay causes in many forms, and shop at Whole Foods.
This seems like it's over-complicating things to avoid grappling with Biden/Harris' poor performance while in office and their inability to campaign on their record in office.
Biden had a series of crises that his administration dealt with poorly and could be directly blamed for: high inflation, Afghanistan and immigration among them. Biden was clearly too senile to campaign and defend that record, giving way to Harris, who is a poor politician and never had any success as a candidate in her own right outside of California. The Democrats had a historically weak campaign position that was a recipe for a lost election.
Donald Trump won because every single ballot drop box in the country was surrounded by cameras streaming 24x7 to YouTube for further analysis.
Democrats were warned in advance of the election that if they tried to board up the windows to the counting room this time, they'd be beaten to a bloddy pulp. And they believed those warnings.
Black Panthers with guns were warned they'd get a lot worse if they showed up to the polling places and so they didn't.
That's why Donald Trump won. The Democrats were not allowed to rig the election in 2024.
Noticing the lack of baby carriages at Whole Foods lately. Trader Joe’s is loaded with them.
Here's a demographic breakdown of the Democrat voter:
"The sad moms, the blogging moms, the camel toe moms, the moms with the huge areola..."
I hope Democrats continue to push for unfettered illegal migration. They’re sure to win elections that way.
There's an excellent poll out there that evaluates the 2024 election: It's called 'the results', and this time we are able to accept the evidence that the cheating was squelched.
I don't believe any of these post-analysis stories either, they're all putting frosting on an already-baked cake, and trying to convince us to like this new flavor ! Totally new ! The mid-terms are going to tell us whether sentiments have really changed or not. The Republicans had better get busy while the Democrats are still showing their *ss.
The most endearing thing about the left is that they always get things wrong. It's cute, like a puppy falling down shag-carpeted steps, but you got to remember not to put the puppy in charge of the lunchmeat.
Illegal migrants are such a deal. Seems we got the oppressed along with their oppressors.
Cloward Piven proved true.
More conservative, libertarian. Less authoritarian, liberal.
The AWFLs are the only white voters the Democrats still can count on. Mostly that's because they share the Democrat view that white people (especially men) are horrible people that should be discriminated against at every opportunity.
A lot of decades-loyal dems are coming to the realization that the extremism the party has been displaying on all sorts of issues is neither an illusion created by conservative media nor a temporary phenomenon that the grownups in the party can be expected to snuff out in a couple of years. More of them will be bailing from the party as this realization continues to sink in. The process will naturally accelerate because the exodus of normal people will only cede more influence and visibility to the crazies who remain. Already, people who have proudly called themselves democrats for years are having to grapple with the fact that the party largely supports (or at least tolerates) political violence (aka terrorism), anti-Semitism, censorship, the prosecution of political opponents, men in girls' restrooms, open borders, etc. It's all too much.
Fake News Word of the Day: “Ambush!"
bagoh20 said...
“The most endearing thing about the left is that they always get things wrong.”
If they were right, they wouldn’t be left.
Slowly, ever so slowly, it begins to dawn on Althouse that maybe the Post just makes stuff up and prints it. Wife and I terminated our subscription well over a decade ago, when we realized that the only Post content we could trust was the sports pages, and even then just the box scores and not the writers.
It's all about preserving their leadership infrastructure. This is their current moneyball answer to the Trump question
"I don't trust any of this material."
Now your getting it.
This is a setback to the oligarchs, but don't expect them to drag their toes in the dust like a Norwegian and say to themselves "Shucks, I can't believe it, I guess I won't be a powerful billionaire anymore." Nope, that's not what is going to happen. They are retooling their methods, not their goals.
because that's actually where the problem is? Only in part, but I think the higher-ups in the DNC think like progressives always think...in terms of power and they, mistakenly, believe that college-educated people are more powerful in implementing progressive planks.
I guess Howard already said what I said.
They compare 2024 to 2020. But I don’t trust anything about 2020. I will never believe that 81 million people voted Joe Biden. Therefore, I don’t believe a single alleged fact about the 2020 election.
I think Democrats should try something wacky. Be honest like Mondale in 1984. I know, old Walt lost 49 states, and Reagan called off the dogs or it would have been 50 states. D's should say the deficit/debt are so bad that taxes have to go up for all. A bit on the masses, more on the well off. Gov spending should be cut further. D's should say that once budget surpluses are occurring, then tax reductions can be considered, but no more deficits allowed.
Also, IMO, Wes Moore (D Gov MD) made a sound strategic choice recently coming out against a reparations study and stating reparations were not necessay. I do not bet, but if forced to, would bet it all that Moore will be the 2028 D nominee. He has learned from Hussein's errors.
If you wnat to make some big money, go place a futures bet on Moore as D 2028 nominee. Easy money.
"White, college-educated voters shifted to the right, and by significantly more than White, noncollege voters did."
This is completely predictable. These men had more exposure to Karen than anyone else.
The Democrat party is the party of Karen and Laticia.
The Democrat party has been running a jobs program for Karen and Laticia for the last 20 years. They have been creating jobs where women can sit in air conditioning and tell productive men what to do while getting paid more than the men they harass and lord over.
Female DEI administrators, Teachers, HR managers, Government Bureaucrats. University Administrators. Karen and Laticia are pure toxicity and they get paid 6 figures to make our lives miserable.
Nobody likes Karen.
Howard said...
It's all about preserving their leadership infrastructure. This is their current moneyball answer to the Trump question
Exactly. The globalist oligarchs created their mandarin class in the women's studies departments of numerous universities.
This time they chose Karen to be their agents in managing their preferred society.
They usually choose the progeny of poor underclass parents who they educate and train to hate the society they live in because it made their family poor. In this case they fed a bunch of women the story they were paid less than men for the same work and created the same type of lazy know it all with a chip on their shoulder and an inflated sense of self worth to keep the proles in check.
If the Democrats boot the neocons and neoliberals, if Dick Cheney, for example, wasn't so comfortable in their party, this would include booting Hillary, I would be happy to stop voting and ignore politics. I think that the neocons and their ilk see Hillary as their only hope, and I expect to see them push her.
"... you can read the details and form an opinion over whether to trust this ...".
How does "trust" come into it?
Kids are all cheating their way through college using AI anyway, meaning that our society is doomed to collapse anyway, and we will end up serving some more disciplined society where students write out their exams in pencil in blue booklets they way we did, but this is too much to ask of our young people.
And BTW, if you "trusted" that to be a free-access link, you trusted someone you shouldn't have. They want my e-mail address.
Seems to me, that the election was still decided by single digits, which should temper and TRiUMPhalism on one side or despair on the other.
It’s 2025. Should we really be trusting the New York Times to define what right and left means for foreign and domestic policy today? The Democratic Party now has the free-trade and military-intervention policies of Ronald Reagan, while Donald Trump has adopted the anti-free-trade and anti-military-intervention policies of Bernie Sanders. Anyone attempting to overlay a left-to-right spectrum on those positions is a fool.
Obama’s legacy is the dissolution of the Democrat party. He divided us by identity, assigning each group a reason to be angry with or to be a victim of GOP, watched with a smirk when each group hated on Trump, now watching with chagrin as the groups realize they’ve been played. Trump is helping them to thrive in many ways. Liberal women still holding on to the thought they’re better due to their boundless empathy, but they’re slowly realizing that the rest of us aren’t so impressed with them anymore.
While I agree with many above that Democrats aren’t learning from their mistakes. I think we assume that will still hurt them at our peril. See Begley’s summary of the WaPo comment section. They have a voting block that buys all the rhetoric and really believe it is the right that has a propaganda machine lying to us.
Stopping election fraud was a major factor in the 2024 win, but it didn’t stop down ballot races from being manipulated. Another big factor was the exposing of various lies by former Democrat voters across YouTube. For instance, more than a few were shocked to learn the truth about Charlottesville, which even the “fact checkers” had to admit in the summer of 2024. Same with Hunter’s laptop. This was huge, but I think glossed over by many, because they felt it came late. It came just in time for 2024. There is more to expose, and it needs to be done.
I remember reading in law school that a "legal fiction" was a convenient lie that only a lawyer could believe. Now it seems that the entire world view projected by the credentialed class is a web of convenient lies that fewer and fewer people choose to believe.
On the issue of the white vote, as I read it the demographic analysis actually said that white college-educated men were moving to the right while white college-educated women continue to support the Democratic party.
My analysis is that the Democratic party has become extremist and so loyalty has two separate meanings. White college-educated women are loyal to the Democratic party, which they imagine as the party of their father, so they have moved left with it (Nancy Pelosi) while white college-educated men are loyal to their principles, which they imagine as the principles of their father, so they have moved right to stay where they were. (RFK Jr.) Pelosi thinks the Dems are still the party of her father, the Italian-Catholic mayor of Baltimore who helped ethnics in the Forties and Fifties; RFK Jr., has publicly said that he thinks the Dems have deserted the principles of his father and uncle, Robert Kennedy and he is now supporting Trump because Trump is now closer to those principles than any Dem.
I speak of loyalty because I think it is a mix of imagination and principle and compelling for most people. I think political parties try to present themselves as deserving of loyalty, i.e., as having a message. I think Trump's message "Make America Great Again" presents the dire 21st century American situation in a hopeful way and attracts loyalty while "America Sucks and Always Has" is the voice of hatred and despair. It attracts reformers for awhile, there's plenty seriously wrong here, but only revolutionaries, burning with a desire to burn, maim and kill can really follow it loyally.
"Anyone attempting to overlay a left-to-right spectrum on those positions is a fool."
This is true, the reason that Michael Moore predicted the first Trump victory was that he knew very well that Trump's policies and rhetoric were very attractive to working people. He could never admit it, but he almost certainly liked them himself. There are a lot of lefties, especially from the old left, which was also anti-war, that approve of Donald Trump. The Democrats have walked away from the anti-war left. They could not imagine that the anti-war left would then walk away from them.
“Rebuild itself”? The Democrat Party is a criminal conspiracy. It is supported by grifters and other crooks, extremists, deniers and dupes. It will simply retool, finding more, better ways to get and use dark money and to thwart the will of normal Americans through corruption.
A guy working in an auto parts factory wants to send his son off to fight in a war on the other side of the world to benefit the factory owners even less than he wants his job shipped to Mexico to benefit the factory owners.
The reason that more white, college educated individuals shifted to the right than white non-college individuals was because there were more of them to shift. (Since college educated people tend to skew to the political left.) A lot of the non-college educated people wised up to the the fact that the Democrats were not their party a while ago.
There was a time when I was a registered Democrat, but about 25 years ago, I realized that the Democratic party was sliding into self corruption.
Thank you, Bill and Barack, for paving the road to Kamala.
There is that "we" again.
The 2024 election was even weirder than YOU may have thought. For most people, the 2020 election was the weird one.
So what exactly is an engaged voter? Is it one of the hundreds of thousands of people who attended a Trump rally? Or someone who diligently reads the op-ed pages of the NY Times and Washington Post?
Someone who posts and comments here- or someone who mindlessly retweets the pots of liberal politicians on X?
And a question on that- if liberals are overflowing on X, who the heck is on Bluesky? What kind of idiocy is propagated there? Anyone here keeping an eye on it?
Blue Sky is a loony bin,
Seems to me, that the election was still decided by single digits, which should temper and TRiUMPhalism on one side or despair on the other.
Once you take into account the giant thumb on the scale deployed by the press on the Democrat side, and the fact that although we all knew we were doing it, recent events have revealed a lot more of the scale of their election interference*, it starts to look more like a landslide of historic proportions.
* among other lies and obfuscations they've perpetrated in order to stay in their positions of power and influence
Black, Brown, and Peach, too. Probably Albinos in the wake of woke. #BLM
Catalist, the left-wing pollsters quoted here, have a terrible reputation. Their data is not credible, nor their motives.
The demographic with the biggest Democrat lean is the mentally ill with the female version being near 100%. The Dems know this and act accordingly. That's why they sound so crazy to the rest of us.
What if Althouse had a “Detox Week” in which she neither blogged about nor linked to NYT or WaPo? Could she make it through, or would withdrawal just be too traumatic?
Once you take into account the giant thumb on the scale deployed by the press on the Democrat side, and the fact that although we all knew we were doing it, recent events have revealed a lot more of the scale of their election interference* That may be true but ultimately of little governing value. We were a whisker away from a Harris presidency.
Statistics are complicated. There's the raw vote total, the percentage, the swing, which compares the percentage to that in the previous election, and the trend, which compares the swing in one state or district with the national swing.
In 2020, white non-college voters swung away from Trump. He still won that group and did well among them, but Trump picked up votes from other groups and did a little worse among WNCVs. In 2024, white college voters swung towards Trump, he still lost WCVs, but he did a little better with them than he had in the past.
Just what the recommendations for each party should be is unclear. Under ordinary circumstances, there are limits to how well MAGA can do with WCVs and other groups and limits to how well Democrats can do with WNCVs.
People of White (i.e. albino), People of Peach, or acting "white"? Critical Diversity Theory asserts that color and class matter.
Don't count your unhatched chickens. If there's a serious recession in the next 12 months, as seems at least possible and perhaps likely, expect the Dems to come roaring back in the mid-terms. That means gridlock in Congress. Come the next Presidential Election, Trump will not be on the ballot (don't tell him; he'll be disappointed). Neither will Kamala.
Trump's "Big Beautiful Budget" will help Democrats sweep into power in the 2026 midterms, although there are many other Trump and GOP policies that will contribute to the GOP losses next November.
However, the Senate will likely make significant changes to the bill and what the final result will be is far from certain. But a bill that adds $3 trillion more to the already sky-high annual deficits will not be well received by the US bond market, and cutting popular benefits that lower income households depend upon, along with other popular programs, in favor of extending tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, as the current bill does, is not a recipe for electoral success.
Perhaps Trump should have called this Bill the "Gulf of Affordability".
If there's a serious recession in the next 12 months, as seems at least possible and perhaps likely, expect the Dems to come roaring back in the mid-terms.
You betcha, and the consequences are a lot worse than a deadlocked Congress: it'll be non-stop impeachments (again). So I want every American to have the 2020(-)-to-2025(+) coverup in front of their noses for the next year and a half, so that MAYBE, if the economy isn't where the Trump team hopes by then, they'll be granted more runway on the basis that at least they're transparent.
And hey, Kak, it's great that you've become a deficit hawk at this late date! Welcome to the party, even though all we have is warm ginger ale at the moment.
As several people have noted, using 2020 as a baseline is almost guaranteed to come up with the wrong results because 2020 was a bizarre election year. Turnout was over 66% compared to 60% in 2016 and 64% in 2024. Total votes cast were over 155 million, exceeding 2024 at 152 million even with a larger voting age population.
"My analysis is that the Democratic party has become extremist....".
You misspelled "R-E-P-U-B-L-I-C-A-N P-A-R-T-Y." The Dems today are basically where the Republicans were a couple of decades ago.
Yeah, Robert. Except for the lying, rioting ,killing and cheating they're exactly like Republicans. You nailed it, buddy.
Two words: Kamala Harris.
The nation's intelligence was insulted.
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