Althouse: Sunrise

September 18, 2024

Sunrise — 6:43.

95 comments:

Deep State Reformer said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 9/18/24, 4:46 PM
NotABoomer said...: No duck?; 9/18/24, 4:49 PM
rhhardin said...: Haitians can't swim.; 9/18/24, 4:55 PM
rhhardin said...: Trump is a guest on Gutfeld tonight; 9/18/24, 5:04 PM
Humperdink said...: It’s been reported the Haitians in Springfield have formed a Ducks Unlimited chapter. They jumped at the chance when they saw the word Unlimited.; 9/18/24, 5:05 PM
Deep State Reformer said...: While trying to solidify my thoughts on the likelihood of another American civil war I found John Mearsheimer’s essay The Big Question’: Can Trump Beat Back the ‘Deep State’? The tl; dr answer is “No”. Or not bloody likely anyhow. Read Mearsheimer's whole argument if you care to at the link below. All of us boomers and those (mainly WP) in decently paying & benefited corporate and bureaucratic sinecures are in for some very BIG lifestyle changes over the next decade IOW. Untethered by anything like an effective political opposition to stop them and in full Obama-style governance mode the thus empowered Wreckers Party are gonna give us what they voted for, and good & hard too. Perhaps another civil war or just a slow steady collapse are about it as America’s alternatives.
https://www.theamericanconservative.com/mearsheimers-big-question-can-trump-beat-back-the-deep-state; 9/18/24, 5:07 PM
rehajm said...: AP reported the Israeli beeper bombs killed an 8 year old girl, according to their reporter embedded with Hamas…; 9/18/24, 5:12 PM
rehajm said...: the collapse will occur slowly, then all at once…; 9/18/24, 5:13 PM
Deep State Reformer said...: Yah, that's what Hemingway's ghost said to me too.; 9/18/24, 5:18 PM
Inga said...: https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/09/jd-vance-offers-proof-of-pet-eating-but-its-proven-false-with-1-phone-call.html

“The Vance campaign provided the Wall Street Journal with a police report to prove their claims about cat-eating Haitians in Springfield. The WSJ spoke to the woman who filed it, who said she later found her cat alive and well in her basement. She also apologized to her Haitian neighbors.” Justin Baragona posted to X with a link to a story in The Wall Street Journal.

Vance was asked in an interview whether he knew the claims were false.

“If I have to create stories so that the American media actually pays attention to the suffering of the American people, then that’s what I’m going to do,” Vance said, quickly clarifying that he “created the focus that allowed the media to talk about this story and the suffering caused by policies.”; 9/18/24, 5:56 PM
Inga said...: “A false claim circulating on social media that Kamala Harris was involved in an alleged hit-and-run in San Francisco in 2011 is the work of a covert Russian disinformation operation, according to new research by Microsoft.

Researchers found that the group created a video, paid an actor to appear as the alleged victim, and spread the claim through a fake website for a nonexistent San Francisco news outlet named KBSF-TV. The Russian group responsible, which Microsoft dubs Storm-1516, is described as a Kremlin-aligned troll farm.

In total, it is estimated the video has been viewed more than 2.7m times.

“Many entities within the pro-Russian ecosystem advanced the video and its claims,” said Microsoft’s Threat Analysis Center.

Microsoft said the discovery was a sign of Russia ramping up its foreign influence efforts ahead of the 5 November presidential election. A spokesperson for the Russian embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment from Reuters.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/sep/18/kamala-harris-fake-hit-run-story-russia-propaganda-storm-1516; 9/18/24, 6:06 PM
rhhardin said...: Trombonist playing against tracks of himself. The modern digital age doing what I couldn't do with two tape recorders decades ago. The past tracks got lower and lower bandwidth each time you added another track.

The most excellent version is Tony Cello playing Tallis Third Mode Melody.; 9/18/24, 6:06 PM
narciso said...: Researchers like georgia tech; 9/18/24, 6:23 PM
narciso said...: That created the fake traffic with alpha bank; 9/18/24, 6:27 PM
narciso said...: https://x.com/JackBrewerBSI/status/1835394864223252959; 9/18/24, 6:30 PM
BUMBLE BEE said...: Nice post. Cellists are fun to watch at symphony. The do rock out somrtimes!; 9/18/24, 6:31 PM
BUMBLE BEE said...: they; 9/18/24, 6:32 PM
paminwi said...: Fabulous!; 9/18/24, 6:37 PM
Leland said...: I don’t recall Inga showing remorse for the Steele Dossier that cost the American taxpayers hundreds of million to finally admit it was made up by two drunks and an FBI plant.; 9/18/24, 6:37 PM
lonejustice said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; 9/18/24, 6:38 PM
tcrosse said...: Kamala's campaign is still pushing the Project 2025 hoax, about all the ridiclous things Trump has up his sleeve. Talk about misinformation. Talk about incitement to violence.; 9/18/24, 6:43 PM
tcrosse said...: Kamala's campaign is still pushing the Project 2025 hoax, about all the ridiclous things Trump has up his sleeve. Talk about misinformation. Talk about incitement to violence.; 9/18/24, 6:43 PM
gadfly said...: Harris is leading Trump, and it may be a landslide. “In your gut you know he’s nuts.”

Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University is back in the arena for the first time this election cycle since his spectacular calls in the 2020 election. He’s using a similar system to handicap the supposedly super-tight presidential election that will be decided just 48 days hence; it’s based on numbers-crunching that’s arguably a lot more scientific than the voter surveys almost always cited to chart the contest’s trajectory, and second, he achieved pinpoint accuracy four years ago, missing Biden’s win in the electoral college by just 12 votes, tagging every state for the correct column save Georgia.

Miller’s approach vastly differs from most political prognostications by relying on prices established by Americans wagering their dollars on the candidates not polls. He states that while polls tell you about the past, the odds on the betting sites map the future.

As he did in 2020, Miller relies upon the largest U.S. political betting site, Predictit. “You have tens of thousands of people betting on the site at all times of the day,” he says. “Financial markets are forward-looking and incorporate information instantaneously, and Predictit provides the same benefits,” says Miller.

The onstage battle in Philadelphia wrecked the 78-year-old former POTUS. Within a day after the candidates left the podium, Harris had jumped to over 400 electoral votes. The Harris endorsement from Taylor Swift secured the day of the debate and probably helped sink Trump’s chances.

If the situation persists, Trump faces an absolute rout. “It would be somewhere between the defeats of Barry Goldwater by Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Bob Dole by Bill Clinton in 1996,” says Miller. “We’re talking about a blowout where Harris gets over 400 electoral votes and wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and every other swing state.”; 9/18/24, 6:46 PM
Inga said...: Leland, sweetie, I’m just an elderly grandmother from a deep red county in Wisconsin. American taxpayers had to spend far more money to deal with Trump’s Big Lie that the election was stolen. How many more millions are being spent to house all those dupes who followed Trump’s direction to March down to the Capital to stop the certification of the election and to “fight like hell” rioting? Where is the remorse for putting our country through an insurrection attempt?; 9/18/24, 6:51 PM
Mark said...: Wait until you hear Vance called Trump Hitler back in 2016.; 9/18/24, 6:54 PM
Leland said...: I seem to recall Nate Silver saying the same thing: https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-polling-nate-silver-1949866
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/06/opinion/trump-victory.html
Of course, he got disinvited to dinners and called nuts by people that can't handle the truth, so now he's saying there's a chance for Harris.; 9/18/24, 6:54 PM
tcrosse said...: Then why do they continue to try killing him?; 9/18/24, 6:54 PM
Jim at said...: Where is the remorse for putting our country through an insurrection attempt?

There is none because it never happened.
Next question.; 9/18/24, 6:57 PM
Wince said...: Ham-handed Russian disinformation: is it designed to help Trump or Kamala?

Inga seems to think it helps Kamala.; 9/18/24, 6:57 PM
Inga said...: Jim, here’s your next question…
In what reality? MAGA Land?; 9/18/24, 7:00 PM
Jim at said...: Wait until you hear Vance called Trump Hitler back in 2016.

Is he still calling him Hitler? No? Then what's your point?; 9/18/24, 7:00 PM
Inga said...: “Trump’s lie that the election was stolen has cost
$519 million (and counting) as taxpayers fund enhanced security, legal fees, property repairs and more”

And that was back in 2021.

WaPo; 9/18/24, 7:03 PM
Inga said...: Who is “they”?; 9/18/24, 7:11 PM
Leland said...: As Jim said, there was no insurrection, unless you mean when Nancy Pelosi told the Joint Chiefs of Staff, twice once before Jan. 6th and again on Jan 6th, to ignore the orders of the Commander in Chief, such that JCS had to issue a statement explaining they wouldn't comply with the Speaker of the House. Where is Nancy Pelosi's remorse for usurping the President's Constitutional power? We finally saw Nancy's remorse about not accepting Trump's offer for National Guard protection on Jan. 6th, but she tried to hide it.; 9/18/24, 7:11 PM
Leland said...: Inga now trying to pretend there wasn't more than one assassination attempt by two different people. She just can't help lying.; 9/18/24, 7:12 PM
Narr said...: My walk-around yard sign survey has changed very little in the last few days. A Harris-Walz sign has appeared in the yard of a couple a few blocks away--he's a prof at UM and she's a veterinarian. Both naturalized immigrants, I think.; 9/18/24, 7:14 PM
Wince said...: Inga, you do remember Saddam used to charge the families for the bullets he used to execute their family members?; 9/18/24, 7:19 PM
Inga said...: Leland, sweetie, my question “Who is they?” is asking what “entity” is the “they” that tcrosse is referring to. Or were you referring to the actual assassins Tcrosse when you said “they”? Leland, I’m well aware that there were two separate assassination attempts, done by two different people because one of them is dead.; 9/18/24, 7:20 PM
Inga said...: That dirty dog. I wonder if Saddam’s family were charged for the rope he was hung with and the wages of the hangmen.; 9/18/24, 7:23 PM
Leland said...: Who is the entity then Inga? You, not tcrosse, are now implying there is one.; 9/18/24, 7:25 PM
Narr said...: Insty has a story about rival restaurants, Italian and Albanian. Since I'm not registered over there, I'll say this here--try the kebapi.; 9/18/24, 7:28 PM
Deep State Reformer said...: The government of China does that to this day.; 9/18/24, 7:32 PM
MadTownGuy said...: John Fetterman on X, again:

"For the second day in a row, I absolutely endorse weaponizing Hezbollah’s tools of terror against themselves."; 9/18/24, 7:46 PM
Dixcus said...: What this comment means is that people are believing the pet eating stories (and they should, since they're true) and also that Democrats are polling this and are finding out that they're losing votes because they let these cat eaters into our country.

Thanks Inga! You've confirmed why we will be talking about this issue long after the election.; 9/18/24, 7:50 PM
Dixcus said...: Inga also reports that Hunter's laptop is Russia disinfo, ya'll.; 9/18/24, 7:51 PM
MadTownGuy said...: James Woods: Awww, re: Rashida Tlaib.; 9/18/24, 7:53 PM
Inga said...: Hey Dixey, I don’t now nor have I ever cared about Hunter Biden or his laptop. I don’t like Hunter Biden and think he’s scum, besides his drug use, he fathered a precious little girl he has nothing to do with.; 9/18/24, 8:03 PM
Inga said...: Whatever floats your boat, lol.; 9/18/24, 8:07 PM
Jim at said...: Who is “they”?

People who hate Trump. People just like you.; 9/18/24, 8:10 PM
Kakistocracy said...: JD Vance may as well have said: “If I have to lie and bring suffering to my constituents in order to win an election, then that is what I’m going to do.”; 9/18/24, 8:12 PM
Maynard said...: If we ignore her, she may go away. She's a good fit for the crazy lefties who troll the Jonathon Turley blog.

Her neighbors may be upset if that gives her more time to annoy them, but that is not our problem.; 9/18/24, 8:13 PM
Inga said...: “Harris wins 64 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Trump wins 36 times out of 100.”

September 18, 2024

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/; 9/18/24, 8:21 PM
Political Junkie said...: Oh well. There are unintended casualties in war.; 9/18/24, 8:22 PM
Inga said...: Jim, there are MILLIONS upon MILLIONS of people who hate Trump who have no desire to kill him.; 9/18/24, 8:25 PM
Original Mike said...: This makes no sense. This is a completely inappropriate application of Monte Carlo simulation, which is apparently what they are doing. What, exactly, are they "simulating"?; 9/18/24, 8:26 PM
Kakistocracy said...: I think this tells you all you need to know about JD Vance the fool.

"A Vance spokesperson on Tuesday provided The Wall Street Journal with a police report in which a resident had claimed her pet might have been taken by Haitian neighbors. But when a reporter went to Anna Kilgore’s house Tuesday evening, she said her cat Miss Sassy, which went missing in late August, had actually returned a few days later—found safe in her own basement."; 9/18/24, 8:53 PM
Peachy said...: Inag - you're just a lying liar who lies.; 9/18/24, 9:03 PM
Inga said...: Dear childless cat lady,
You’re just a dumb dummy who is dumb.; 9/18/24, 9:22 PM
Peachy said...: Coming from a liar such as you - Inag - I laugh.; 9/18/24, 9:31 PM
Peachy said...: "A Disturbing Number of Democrats Think America Would Be Better Off If Trump Were Assassinated"; 9/18/24, 9:39 PM
rhhardin said...: I watched Trump on Gutfield for a while but he kept going back to criminals coming over the border; 9/18/24, 9:40 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: Eric Erickson would be very pleased to hear that.; 9/18/24, 9:46 PM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: Overheard a in conversation: There was an attempt on Hitler’s life too.; 9/18/24, 9:49 PM
wildswan said...: 8,000 Haitians in Springfield have enrolled in Medicaid in the last few years. Enrollment in Medicaid requires that you be at the Federal poverty level, have less than $2,000 in savings, don't own a house. In short, you are poor. So if almost half of Springfield's 20,000 Haitians are in Medicaid, almost half are poor by definition. Bang goes the story that "Haitians flock to Springfield for good paying jobs."
The story is from Reuters cited by Newsmax, Is it true? Maybe they ARE hungry in Springfield.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsmax-tv/david-yost-springfield-ohio/2024/09/17/id/1180740/; 9/18/24, 10:10 PM
HistoryDoc said...: I think Democrats new theme song is Taylor Swift's "Look what you made me do"; 9/18/24, 10:14 PM
Josephbleau said...: You randomly resample the data you have to get more fake data that has the same distribution as the real data. and think you know more because your " sample size " is larger. if you create a million resamples without replacement you can get the really extreme outlier cases you want to publicise. but if you are a statistician just calculate the confidence intervals from the original data and you have the whole story without paying for all the electricity for your computer.; 9/18/24, 11:01 PM
Josephbleau said...: Yes, the point is not to give them jobs, but to make large payments to pop up organizations favored by politicians who are given millions to provide food and housing, and pay the organization management $300,000 per year salaries and skim 10 percent in contract kickbacks.; 9/18/24, 11:07 PM
Iman said...: Trump’s appearance worked well. He did repeat himself a few times, YT he was sharp, focused and - I thought - damn funny. The contrast between Trump and Harris is striking, as Trump is relaxed, in good humor and witty, while Harris comes across as stale and inebriated.; 9/19/24, 12:16 AM
wendybar said...: Just WHAT is in their water to make them believe all of THIS bullshit??? What a joke. Just listen for yourself.

If THIS is a Senior Military Official, then we are truly fucked. Putin is LAUGHING his ass off, as are the rest of the world.

🇺🇸Travis🇺🇸

@Travis_4_Trump

MSNBC guest says Putin will be deterred by Kamala Harris because she’s the product of a mixed marriage 🤡

MSNBC Host: “Wow.”

🤦‍♂️

https://x.com/Travis_4_Trump/status/1836435027686482062; 9/19/24, 2:14 AM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: Would it be out of line to wish every Israel hater get the same exact stroke Fetterman got?; 9/19/24, 2:16 AM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: Would it be out of line to wish every Israel hater get the same exact stroke Fetterman got?; 9/19/24, 2:16 AM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: There must be an easy way to bookmark comments.; 9/19/24, 2:18 AM
wendybar said...: Progressives will have something else to destroy now.

BREAKING: PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCES THAT HE WILL OFFICIALLY MAKE THE GROUND ZERO SITE A NATIONAL MONUMENT. pic.twitter.com/sc9OlM04wv

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 19, 2024; 9/19/24, 2:44 AM
wendybar said...: Are they trying to blind Trump supporters now??

Christy Kelly
@Kelly4Humanity
🚨BREAKING NEWS🚨
Bombshell exclusive: What is going on in Tucson?

Many supporters seated behind Trump onstage went to the ER after the rally with “blurred vision” and “burning” to the eyes.

I spoke to several who still have not fully recovered. As many as 20 were affected.

My exclusive here at the Arizona Globe: https://arizonaglobe.com/fl/tucson-trump-rally-sparks-backlash-mysterious-illness/

or watch..

https://twitter.com/i/status/1836567866184978468; 9/19/24, 3:00 AM
wendybar said...: Priorities.

"Jill Biden is going to honor the cast members of the TV show ‘The West Wing’ at the White House on Friday to celebrate the 25 year anniversary of the show.

This is the same administration that couldn’t even be bothered to honor Gold Star families by showing up at Arlington National Cemetery this summer and then had the nerve to criticize Trump for doing so.

This tells you everything you need to know about the Democrats. This is who they really care about. This is who they want approval from."

https://deadline.com/2024/09/west-wing-white-house-reunion-1236092960/; 9/19/24, 3:03 AM
gadfly said...: While the Neo-Nazi Blood Tribe marched and threatened black legalized Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Trump and Vance continued the outrageous lie that Haitians are "pet-eating illegals."

Back at the ranch, God-anointed Speaker, "Moses" Johnson (who God said would calm the roiling sea), is taking orders from MAL, not Heaven, when he proposes to keep the government open only if Democrats agree to swallow a poison pill that makes it harder to register to vote. But all Johnson has proved is that he doesn't have the votes to pass such a weird bill this late in the game.

So the Republican grand strategy is to lie that Democrats are impairing the inoperable GOP-led House when the election happens during a government shutdown - a huge gamble even with help from the Russians.; 9/19/24, 3:07 AM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: Breaking 😉 : Biden signs Hamas Hisbollah Communications Equipment Replacement Act.; 9/19/24, 4:12 AM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: News you can use: Maybe sleeping with my phone next to me is not a good idea.; 9/19/24, 4:18 AM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: I’m stuck on the Lanier Parkway do to major accident.; 9/19/24, 4:19 AM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: If you love your phone, you better vote the right way 😮; 9/19/24, 4:22 AM
Lem Vibe Bandit said...: Amazon is promising to give its employees free Prime subscription. It probably doesn’t include contractors like me 😑; 9/19/24, 4:28 AM
Humperdink said...: @the gad. Nothing says legalized immigrants like stuffing 20,000 of them down a small town’s throat who doesn’t want them.

Think about that. Of course you won’t.; 9/19/24, 5:22 AM
Humperdink said...: Inga said: “Jim, there are MILLIONS upon MILLIONS of people who hate Trump who have no desire to kill him.”

This is the most the idiotic statement I’ve read in awhile. How many does it take to pull one trigger?; 9/19/24, 5:30 AM
Christopher B said...: @Lemnity .. yes, there is.

Change back to the sequential comment view by clicking on the post title and scroll to the comment you want to bookmark. The date-time stamp below each comment is a hot link like this; 9/19/24, 5:49 AM
Leland said...: I like it. I wonder how much more land in NYC Trump can turn into federal property.; 9/19/24, 6:36 AM
BUMBLE BEE said...: RIP JD Souther.
Great tribute to the man

https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2024/09/18/jd-souther-singer-songwriter-dies-at-78/; 9/19/24, 7:03 AM
Derve Swanson said...: Inga
Jim, there are MILLIONS upon MILLIONS of people who hate Trump who have no desire to kill him.
=============
There are MILLIONS upon MILLIONS of people who want a nice meal, or trim yard, but have no desire to do the work themselves...
Do you know what patsy is, inga?; 9/19/24, 7:22 AM
Derve Swanson said...: (just own it; you're no peaceful dove...); 9/19/24, 7:24 AM
Iman said...: Damn. My wife and I had just pulled up a few weeks ago a 1977 video of Ronstadt singing “Faithless Love” in concert. Lovely song. Souther was a helluva talent and an important contributor to the L.A. rock scene and sound in the ‘70s. RIP.; 9/19/24, 7:39 AM
MadTownGuy said...: Election officials in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania have *BANNED* all mail-in ballot drop boxes from the county over concerns that they facilitate voter fra*d"

Watch the short video.; 9/19/24, 8:25 AM
MadTownGuy said...: JD Souther also wrote the sweet theme song to "Anything But Love," a greatly underrated series that was cancelled too soon. He sang the theme for the first season, and for seasons 2-4 it was an instrumental version.; 9/19/24, 8:28 AM
Leland said...: Consider Prime originally was about free shipping; isn't it much for the majority of Amazon employees to be able to just pick up their purchases from work as they head out the door? Why not give that option to them/contractors? Or is this about free access to "Grand Tour" and MGM movies?; 9/19/24, 8:54 AM
Iman said...: Love trumps Igna.; 9/19/24, 12:05 PM
Aggie said...: This furious serial posting is simply a measure of flop sweat.; 9/19/24, 1:44 PM
Jim at said...: Jim, there are MILLIONS upon MILLIONS of people who hate Trump who have no desire to kill him.

Not every Trump hater like you wants to kill him. But every person who wants to kill him is a Trump hater.

It's not my fault your people want him dead. Nor is it his.
But, these are your people. These are the people you choose to run with. Own it.; 9/19/24, 3:24 PM