September 26, 2024
"But a careful look at the available data strongly indicates that Harris’s coalition looks very different from Obama’s and is still struggling to match the contours of Biden’s 2020 coalition."
Writes Ruy Teixeira in "Harris has yet to replicate the Biden coalition as Election Day nears/With about six weeks until the election, Kamala Harris has yet to match Joe Biden’s coalition" (WaPo)("for now, she is underperforming her party’s historical patterns with non-White and working-class and younger voters")(free access link).
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I fear the violence of the left when sue loses in a landslide
other than the fact that she represents the established Democrat Party..
WHY, would ANY ONE, Ever vote for her?
Don't get me wrong; the fact that she represents the established Democrat Party is enough for more than 40% of the people in this country (and FAR more than half of the vote COUNT)..
But, WHAT does Kamela bring to the table?
Trump's inroads into "non-White, working-class and younger voters" is not being offset by Harris's "historic WOMAN!" campaign. She is drawing the female vote at exactly the same rate in polls, including polls that show her "surging" and polls that show a tighter race. She's plus 15 in all of them. But Trump has garnered Black men and Hispanic voters at historic levels. If we had a decent media, they would be pointing out this multi-racial coalition for Trump. Early mail voting is not even favoring democrats as it has in recent elections.
The dogs do NOT like the dog food.
Harris' coalition are batshit crazy women, and the men who want to please them.
A coalition of gay men, and their beards.
Unsurprising given Harris' previous election successes...or lack thereof.
She makes a mean salad. A word salad, sure, but it's still top notch.
Would love to be a fly on the wall around Hillary whenever the topic of Harris comes up.
I get the impression that black men can’t stand her
Ruy Teixeira still kind of believes that Democrats represent common people but need coaxing to remember to include their interests in the party's platform. How delusional.
I’m angry about the Democrats’ violent rhetoric and the assassination attempts right now. I hope someone in the Republican Party is thinking about who takes the lead if the next assassination attempt against Donald Trump is successful.
She's underperforming previous Democrat metrics. So it begs the question doesn't it? Why is this even close? Or is it?
A large coalition the size of a small coalition.
No one could be that naive, Danno.
Harris base is primarily composed of wine-drinking AWFLs (Angry white female liberals) and angry black women professionals. And of course, the cohort of Democratic politicians, media, and political operatives yoked to her by party affiliation.
Walz as VP choice was self-defeating and stupid, bringing no swing-state win, while demonstrating that Harris is unable to affiliate herself with anyone more intelligent or accomplished as herself.
Someone is catastrophically wrong in the polling data. The data, for example, discussed in this essay should mean Trump wins a landslide which means the election results polling is catastrophically wrong. If the election result polling is close to right, then Texeira's data is the one that is catastrophically wrong.
I see the same things in comparing the state level polling data- either the state level data is laughably wrong or the national level polling data is.
It'll be funny if that's the key to her loss, Caroline.
Yes it does. No it isn't. It is all just part of "operation gaslight" like most things reported by the DNC Media. Why do we get an equal number of "the D's are panicking!" stories as we do the "look it's tied" stories. One of them is obviously a lie, and you can see Democrats panicking all around you, so, there you go.
Yep. Her one and only Big Decision and she blew it badly. It is what we call in literature, foreshadowing.
IOW all the individual data points and important metrics indicate Trump is leading, but the one data point, the "national" poll, which is meaningless (like the "popular vote") has her tied or a slight lead either way.
Don't forget government employees. They are a big part of any Democrat "coalition."
Well, Harris could win the popular vote by, let's say, 2% and still lose the electoral college vote 330-208. Trump by his unique nature has paths to victory without winning the popular vote. If Harris wins the popular vote by 1% then Trump will win all the "swing states" from the 2020 election by 4%+.
I look forward to the violence of the Left when Harris loses, the GOP takes control of the Senate, and keeps the House.
Blue cities will burn, and deserve it.
Red areas will have people going Kyle Rittenhouse on the thugs.
Win / win
"The popular vote" is meaningless, as we don't elect Presidents that way. The United States isn't a Democracy. We are a Constitutional Republic. And we're going to stay that way - by violent force if necessary.
I fear that nobody will shoot back at the left when the violence begins.
given her packed rallies, the sky-high enthusiasm of Democrats
The rallies are "packed" into a compressed area, and filled with people who are paid to be bussed in.
Democrat voter "enthusiasm" is lower than GOP voter enthusiasm, in essentially every poll I've seen
Ruy í often reality based, but this was pure WaPo reader fluffing
You know, if Biden’s looking good that last week they could absolutely switch back to him as the candidate. Because they’re the Democratic Party and they’ll always do what’s best for America. Just try and stop them.
Latino voters, on the other hand, do not appear to have improved much for the Democrats since Harris got into the race. In the June Times-Siena poll, Biden was ahead of Trump by 14 points among Hispanics, which is actually a bit more than Harris’s lead among these voters (12 points) in September. This level of support for Harris is 11 points less than Biden’s 23-point Hispanic margin in 2020, which in turn was 16 points less than Clinton’s in 2016.
Intersectionality at its finest. Hispanics could hope for some payoffs froth "white" Biden.
But the "black" Harris has nothing to offer them
“ I fear that nobody will shoot back at the left when the violence begins”
No one will shoot back in the Blue Cities, and esp in the Blue States, because, for example, what happened to Kyle Rittenhouse - he was politically prosecuted for what was very obviously well justified self-defense shootings.
Here’s a counter example. During the 2020 AntiFA driven riots, the riot in Spokane threatened to spill over into nearby Coeur d’Alene. Several carloads of rioters drove over there to check it out, and quickly turned around, seeing groups of citizens patrolling the streets with slung AR-15s (etc).
Nice!
If not for the abortion issue, Trump would be winning in a landslide.
Interestingly enough, Gallup has Trump by 2.5% in the popular vote today.
RideSpaceMountain said:
"A coalition of gay men, and their beards."
NO, NO, NO! — She isn't holding on to all gay men — I'm a gay man who supports Gays.Against.Groomers
https://www.gaysagainstgroomers.com/
I don't want to date a lesbian with her breasts cut off and I am horrified by men who mutilate their bodies to create a paraphilic fetish of a parody of the female form. Harris and her party would make all of that more common.
I blew whistles and laid on asphalt at Regan/Bush era AIDS funding protests. I will not shut up about my opposition. I vote and register others.
Two possibilities. She is a terrible candidate and people don't want to work for her and/or Democrats have perfected election theft to the point that they need not staff her campaign.
OUR next president? What’s a foreigner like you doing posting like a banshee on this blog?
I look at it this way...
San Francisco and Minneapolis, What could possibly go right!
Don't forget this guy.
I’m sure network news programs would also not cover it if Kamala Harris started selling NFTs, shoes, Bibles, and watches for hundreds of times more than they are worth.
The Hell with the contours of the campaign. How about the substance within the contours? There isn't any.
John Henry
Harris campaign TV commercials are still pushing Project 2025, Jan 6, and Abortion. Is that all they've got?
I saw a clip from Judge Joe Brown. He was a TV show judge but also UCLA law grad and former criminal court judge.
He was saying that he met Kamala's father in Jamaica and he told Brown that he was not black, but Indian-Irish and that Kamala was not black either. Not on his side, not on mom's side.
https://youtu.be/fD0KVQLpKJg?si=zGHTi5ARJcPVguCk&t=668
Is Kamala actually a white woman?
(Indians are "white" in the US, no?)
John Henry
Thank you Choirboy626
Trump wouldn't be doing this if his son was a bag man collecting kickbacks from Ukraine.
Isn't it quite interesting that no one who has anything they want to sell in the marketplace want to be anywhere near the disastrous and usually inebriated kamala-la-la-la-la?
Of course, if child traffickers were allowed to advertise, I'm sure they would be reaching out to kamala-la-la-la-la in a heartbeat!
Thanks for playing Abacus Boy!! However, no points awarded to you for deflection failure...and certainly no points simply for trying,
tsk tsk tsk
Yes.
Sometimes they also push the Charlottesville hoax as well.
A Diverse coalition is, fortunately, less and less a diverse consensus.
I'm shocked that I'm the first to point out Ruy Teixeira is the author of the "Great Replacement Theory." He just didn't call it that. Wiki:
"He is most noted for his work on political demography, and particularly for The Emerging Democratic Majority (2002), which he co-wrote with John Judis, a book arguing that the Democratic Party are demographically destined to become a majority party in the United States of the early 21st century."
It's the theory that crazy right-wing conspiracists point to, as they're being laughed at and shouted down.
We all saw the videos, the news reports, the testimonies. Replay those every time Trump lies. Jan 6th should not be sanitized by Trump for his convenience. It was the most shameful day for America in my lifetime that I’ve ever seen.
Everything in Trump's life has been rewritten or whitewashed.
He's a sad, little man who will go to the ends of the earth to convince anyone willing to listen that he's bigger. Perhaps even more sad is the fact that people still buy it
The media's commercial interests override their alleged journalistic interests. They want a close race, and as much spectacle as possible — viewers, clicks, engagement and ultimately oodles of campaign, PAC and issue group advertising. It’s nauseating for sure. And not at all *news*
LOL
Your panicked efforts are becoming more pathetic by the minute!
The gaslighting just isn't working anymore yet that's all you know how to do and you just can't move the needle with your transparent lies and hoaxes.
What's an NPC troll like LLR-democratical Rich supposed to do now? The world has moved on....leaving him behind. Its sad really. Like watching a wounded animal dying slowly in the desert.........
They should have stuck with Joe Biden.
eat more cats, richie!
I fear the violence of the left when sue (sic) loses in a landslide.
I don't. It's going to happen sooner or later, so we might as well get it over with.
Everything in Trump's life has been rewritten or whitewashed.
You're certifiable.
Judge Joe Brown with some bad news for America.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmcqcbC16OU&t
"Kamala is not black".
Who was the last Republican Presidential candidate who ran on an "I'm not Black" ticket?
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/09/26/fact-check-kamala-harris-falsely-claims-guns-are-no-1-killer-of-children/
Ruy, at least, is honest That is too rare among Democrats.
That's possible but the magnitude of fraud would be huge.
Probably true. Republicans at the state level, like here in AZ, are not helping.
I agree.
I've seen that before.
I agree about the Media. If they were honest, it would not be a contest. Trump landslide. It could still happen.
There was one guy who said "I am not a crook", but he wasn't running.
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