Part of the problem is how police departments report offenses to the FBI. The FBI asked, then demanded, that law enforcement agencies “transition” away from the system they used for decades to a new, more detailed but onerous one. The 2021 mandate to use NIBRS to submit crime data proved a disaster as overstretched departments, especially in large cities, failed to reach compliance and thus did not submit data.
In 2019, 89% of agencies covering 97% of the population submitted data, but by 2021, that coverage plummeted to less than 63% of departments overseeing just 65% of the population. Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City all failed to submit crime data. To increase participation, the FBI relaxed the NIBRS requirement in 2022, allowing agencies to report via the legacy system.
But many other cities, such as St. Louis, which had transitioned to the new method, still struggle to comply and submit partial or faulty data. The FBI compensates by relying more heavily on “estimation,”or informed guesswork, to fill in the gaps and produce aggregated data.
That method of inferring offense totals is based on similar jurisdictions and past trends but is prone to error since it cannot compensate for local factors or events. For example, comparing Baltimore’s 2015 homicide total to similar cities’ trends would produce a skewed result. Baltimore, beset by riots and a police stand-down, saw murder rise 62% that year. In peer cities, murders rose in Cleveland only 15% and fell in Detroit by 1% and Memphis by 4%.
And the figures the agencies do report to the FBI do not match the agencies’ publicly reported figures. For Baltimore, the FBI reported 225 murders in 2023, but the city reported 262 — which means the FBI left out 37 murders. In Milwaukee, the police department reported a 7% increase in robberies, but the FBI showed a 13% drop. Nashville’s own data tallied more than 6,900 aggravated assaults in 2023, but the FBI counted only 5,941, leaving almost 1,000 of those offenses “missing.” This trend is consistent across the board: While 2022’s FBI city-level figures track the police’s own data, the 2023 numbers consistently undercount offense totals. Any year-to-year comparison overstates decline.
Other measures of crime levels undermine, or at least muddle, the veracity of the FBI’s data, which rely on “reported” offenses by victims and law enforcement themselves....
Another complicating factor is underreporting by the police themselves, who might be under pressure to “downcharge” offenses or dissuade the victims from reporting the crime at all....
In reality, violent crime is up substantially from 2019 levels....
By the way, The Guardian tells us Trump's statement is "without evidence":
“The FBI crime statistics Biden is pushing are fake,” he said without evidence. “They’re fake just like everything else in this administration.”
When I first read that, I thought The Guardian was asserting, based on its own investigation, that Trump's statement is unsupported by evidence, but it's ambiguous, and it's deceptive in its ambiguity. It could just mean that Trump made his statement without going into any detail about why the FBI crime statistics are fake. I only noticed that ambiguity after I went looking for the information myself. I wonder if The Guardian also looked, also found the explanation, and decided to write "without evidence," leaving a loophole to deny that it meant to assert that there was no evidence.
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The FBI are refusing to report crime.
Left wing Democratic press happy to lie on behalf of the Biden-leftist - Democratics.
Anything negative yet true about the corrupt left - the corrupt DEMOCRATIC left - will be reported as "without evidence"
I am not enjoying life in this Supreme Soviet, where we are blatantly lied to by “newspapers” whose prime directive is to protect Democrats, and we are just expected to just accept it.
- Rafe
My son, a banker, tells me that for anyone who uses Excel professionally it is a mark of shame (or probably generation... he gives my husband a pass) to use the mouse for anything. You use keyboardshortcuts.
I imagine this is also possible in whatever word processor journalists use - Word, I assume. You know, they type ctrl-T and the word processor types, "he said without evidence."
It’s well known that 39-40% of cities (large ones ie democrat run) refuse to supply data to DOJ for the crime report. It’s empirically poor data.
“30-40%” I mean
There used to be a promise that if you could identify a social problem, the welfare state could solve it. Now it is easier to lie and say there is no problem. Bureaucracies must still grow to work on messaging, prosecutions, and lawsuits.
Did you know the Guardian stopped reporting its circulation numbers when they dipped below 100k people? The corporate press, which the Guardian apes at every opportunity, is profoundly unpopular even when Facebook and Google expand their reach. That was fine when millionaires lived in a zero interest economy, but now threadbare deceit has to have an audience to be economically viable.
This is also why SIR Keir Starmer is going to have four terrible years as he tries to maintain the agenda for Ukraine guns while funding butter at home.
Also - does the Guardian really believe that their unsupported claim that Trump's claim is unsupported is going to resonate more strongly with the denizens of Philly than Trump's claim that the crime people actually experience, the sense of unease and insecurity people actually feel, is less than their stupid experiences and feelings tell them?
Have they been to Philadelphia? I mean, I love that city, in all its gritty glory. But it is absolutely crime-ridden in places. Our dear friends' son just graduated from Temple - they were saying rosaries on the daily for his safety.
Why does Trump say the FBI is getting it wrong?
Playing the percentages? Here’s the thing- when you have a certain expertise in data and numbers there are things that don't make sense. Things that don’t occur naturally. They become red flags. Evidence to look for more evidence. There are clear signs the government has been manipulating data- economic, crime…voting. It is manipulative. The red flag is the suspicious data always favors the Democrats…
So while lawyers admire the parsing of the word ‘is’ as ‘ballsy’ the rest of us are stuck trying to make sense of a world where the government and their propagandists are being deliberately deceptive…
Oops I got tangled in my convoluted syntax. Of course I meant that it's the Guardian claiming people shouldn't believe their lying eyes.
Gee - it's really hard to believe the same corrupt FBI who covers for Joe Biden and his family crime - would devise a scheme to cover for the Soros DA pro-crime syndicate and the nation's over-the-top spikes in crime based on illegal entrants and lax on crime democratic attitudes.
DEFUND THE POLICE was/is DEMOCRATIC.
Wild increases in petty crime, mad-max road/driving (crashes and deaths due to irresponsible and reckless low count police presence on our roads and highways) to violent crime... 100% BLAME GOES TO THE Democratic Soros leftist "Defund the Police" Democratics.
DEMOCRATIC.
In CA - you can steal 999 dollars and feel no pain. Thanks to DEMOCRATICS.
It’s not just a bodge job the list is just the method to arrive at the data they want. How ballsy…
There's hardly a Democratic-dominated city or county in the United States that has submitted the standard FBI crime report for 2023.
Thanks Ann for figuring this out.
It’s easy for the Dems to say crime is down when all the numbers aren’t reported.
The Dems love to claim that it is the scientific consensus that GHG causes global warming. BS. That fake conclusion has lead to billions wasted on solar and wind power. But fat cats get federal income tax credits.
It’s a shame our check and balance system that includes a mostly honest media is MIA on this and other topics. The normal feedback for this would entail reduced funding for criminal management, since there are fewer criminals, but that would mean an actual increase in the crime rates over what’s already going on and not being disclosed.
I’d never get away with such dishonesty in my tech work environment. Heads should roll.
Leftist DEMOCRATICS are all lying liars who lie.
In Cleveland, local news outlets downplay crime.
"WITHOUT EVIDENCE" regurgitated narrative-speak is the known Democratic bullshit.
FBI pretends to be law enforcement ads cover. Their only raison d’etre is covering up
For the DC corruption.
The establishment left suffers from imploding legitimacy, so one of their newest scams is to claim that Trump rallies are sparsely attended. But even a brief glance at TruthSocial shows full on videos of crowds packing the first two sets of bleachers. In Philly! Then when the left moves the goalposts and claims it's an old rally, just show them the TV screens cheerfully advertising Trump in Philadelphia.
The mass movement is building strength throughout America. Bill Clinton might have managed it if he had the same resources. Obama could only get comparable crowds in his first term. But Donald Trump is more popular than ever, and the establishment is in full panic.
It’s a shame our check and balance system that includes a mostly honest media is MIA on this and other topics.
I will give you that the media are mostly honest on certain topics - the ones where dishonesty would be self-evident (weather, for instance - NOT climate) or where (getting away with) dishonesty has no benefit to the political side that journalists almost uniformly favor (restaurant critiques, for instance - although even there we sometimes see the insistence that those fried cricket appetizers are not just edgy but the best thing you'll ever taste).
But advocacy journalism is out and proud these days. I don't see how we can say the media are "mostly honest" -
- unless we're saying it "without evidence."
(I admire your grace in giving them the benefit of the doubt, breezy - that they're just MIA versus actively killing stories they believe will not advance their side. I will try to reach for that grace.)
LOL I was in the industry and the transition from UCR to NIBRS reporting was supposed to happen in the last century.
Lotta footdragging in the various states, departments, agencies and other bailiwicks.
"The FBI asked, then demanded, that law enforcement agencies...."
Please remind me: what constitutional warrant does the FBI have to demand any information from state law enforcement agencies in the first place?
I suppose it's Interstate Commerce, right?
The jobs numbers seem to be consistently revised down. In 2023 the revision was about 360 thousand fewer jobs actually created after all revisions than initially claimed. The original report makes the news; the revision doesn’t. We’re running at a 500 thousand job reduction rate through 2024 so far.
The FBI is completely dishonest but they attempt to at least pretend to be in the real world.
The BLS on the other hand is just openly fraudulent and blatantly so. The Unemployment number and the Inflation number they report are openly and disgustingly inaccurate.
Trump really is the Pablo Picasso of BS. I would wager that the crime rate for immigrants is far, far lower than for living former presidents of the US. Doesn't Trump realize he's now part of the rising crime rate statistics ?
No ambiguity in the headline (or sub-headline) which clearly states that there is "evidence against" the notion that increased illegal immigration has led to higher rates of violent crime. Did they provide any such evidence?
The FBI has its hands full fighting the domestic war on terror. They have no time for trad crime. They have to focus on existential threats like MAGA extremists. It's your fault, MAGA losers. If you would remember your place and stop making funny memes and pointing out inconvenient facts, the FBI might have a chance to go after some of these...well, they wouldn't do that anyway, but still. Shut up, you guys. You're not helping anything with all expressing uncredentialled, unapproved opinions and laughing at your betters and what not. It isn't very nice and you should be arrested. One of these days...
@Jamie -
I wholeheartedly agree with you re the media actively killing any truthful story that reflects badly on the left. My statement was a poorly written, I can see now, as it was ambiguous. I viscerally hate that our media is wholly dishonest. It makes my blood boil. We haven’t had a “mostly honest” media for decades. Or perhaps my naïveté shielded me from seeing the truth way back then, as well. So while I would love to be considered to have grace, I must respectfully decline that compliment in this case ;).
NBC Rich is an obedient democratic narrative spreader. Similar to that tool in the garage that spreads goose poop.
People also have more guns than ever before. It's getting less onerous (sic) to purchase a gun (or even NFA firearms) even though the laws are stringent.
Pablo Picasso was never called an asshole
Just imagine if Trump hadn't delivered remarks as he did. As the Guardian reported, Trump said, "“Unbelievably Crooked Joe Biden is going around trying to claim that crime is down. Crime is so much up. First of all, we have a new form of crime. It’s called the Biden Migrant Crime, right? And all these millions of people that have come in, they’re just getting warmed up.”
Think if, instead of that, Trump had something like what the Washington Examiner wrote; "That method of inferring offense totals is based on similar jurisdictions and past trends but is prone to error since it cannot compensate for local factors or events. For example, comparing Baltimore’s 2015 homicide total to similar cities’ trends would produce a skewed result. Baltimore, beset by riots and a police stand-down, saw murder rise 62% that year. In peer cities, murders rose in Cleveland only 15% and fell in Detroit by 1% and Memphis by 4%."
Now, I know that the TrumpWingers are laughing at that comparison. But Trump's absolute zenith in popularity came immediately after he tried to do such a thing. It was his first state of the union address, which the Washington Post referred to as his "much praised" speech for its tone and demeanor. Trump never did another one like that ever again.
Trump's fans don't want the kind of nuance and accuaracy that Althouse is prescribing for the Guardian. Trumpers want to punch their percieved enemies in the face. From the Guardian: Jair Moly, 27, an African American man wearing a Maga cap, said: “You ain’t from here, don’t come here. You ain’t allowed here, don’t come here. Make America great again ‘24. Let’s go!”
Asked why he intends to vote for Trump, Moly replied: “He’s real, he keeps it real. He’s not fake. There’s nothing fake about him. He keep it real and he pull no no punches and that’s what we need, America, punch you right in the face.”
I'm always going to hold Trump to his words, since he gets to choose them. And he could choose articulation; but instead he chooses his own brand of falsehoods, exaggeration, salesmanship and xenophobia.
Don’t bother me with statistics when The Washington Examiner & Fox is grooming me!
didn't someone PROMISE us (yesterday) that he wouldn't participate in these discussions anymore?
i'm starting to think, that he MIGHT NOT BE BEING COMPLETELY HONEST with us?
Some people try to pick up girls
And get called an asshole
This never happened to Pablo Picasso
Why?
He could walk down the street
Girls could not resist to stare
Subsequently Pablo Picasso was never called an asshole
No
Not around here
Not like you
The girls would turn the color of the avocado
When he would drive down the street in his El Dorado
Well he was only 5'3"
But girls could not resist his stare
Pablo Picasso never got called an asshole
Not like you
Oh brother
Yeah
He was really something
"xenophobia."
LOL - Democrxatic super power word of dunces.
The stats are fake in that they are incomplete. The corrupt FBI puts them out without a caveat that, for example, NYC, LA and other large cities are not included.
Rich, are you actually as stupid as you seem to be, or are you pretending?
The Washington Examiner and Fox News brought the receipts, and your side has presented no actual, reliable data. When you try, it’s easily shot full of holes. But it’s *the rest of us* that are in denial in the face of data???
You’re so facile.
- Rafe
Police departments juke the stats and that has gotten worse in the last 3.5 years. Nothing surprising here- Democrats run all of these cities and the increases in crime are a political albatross so you can expect them to lie about it relentlessly.
Imagine you live in Philadelphia and hear the mainstream media talk about how much safer Philadelphia is today vs 3.5 years ago- but you live there and know what it is really like. Gaslighted or not?
What Trump said is literally correct- the FBI is lying with "statistics" and everyone living in these cities literally knows it even if almost all them are Democrats, too.
The Wall Street Journalweighs in"
It's an opinion piece, but supported by facts, though most of it's behind a paywall so I can explore it only so far.
The talking point from the leftmediaswine that illegal immigration has not increased crime is probably bogus and definitely irrelevant. The point is that without Biden immigrants their crimes would not have happened. The fetanyl wouldn't be here. The victims of rapes, murders and other crimes committed by Biden's immigrants wouldn't be victims.
There's another dimension to a high crime that doesn't get enough attention. It's the extent to which people alter their behavior because of the fear of crime. Let's say a city experiences a crime wave that includes 100 incidents of people being violently assaulted in the subway. As a result of these cases, however, large numbers of law-abiding citizens decide the subway in unsafe and they stop using it (or use it a lot less). The result of that is a 33% drop in the number of subway assault cases. Politicians would take credit for that decrease as proof that they "cut crime," but the drop is due more to people sacrificing the convenience of using the subway because of a rational fear of crime.
You can see the same dynamic in plenty of other settings. Nothing reduces convenience store holdups more effectively than closing the ones that are located in bad neighborhoods because of the crime.
The point is, raw crime statistics don't necessarily measure the true extent of a city's crime problem.
Attention Rich and LLR Chuck:
Only 44% of all police agencies submitted complete crime reports for 2022. 24% submitted only partial reports for 2022. 32% of all police agencies in the United States failed to report any crime data for 2022.
"But many other cities, such as St. Louis, which had transitioned to the new method, still struggle to comply and submit partial or faulty data...." Well.. maybe it's in their best political interest to pretend to struggle, eh? Especially if it makes the crime stats look better.
So it's another case of institutional capture, followed by corruption of the trusted authority, I guess - on both sides of the transactions, in this case.
And after all the breast-beating outrage, 'Oh you've sullied the reputation of the City of Brotherly Love !!', , once again Trump is right, as we suspected - only moreso.
Rafe: "Rich, are you actually as stupid as you seem to be, or are you pretending?"
The LLR-democraticals, Rich/lonejustice/Violent Homosexual Rage Rape Fantasist Chuck, are having to kick up a tremendous amount of dust in their standard gaslighting effort for their beloved dems.
The New Soviet Democraticals are absolutely using the incomplete (and thus "reduced") overall crime stats as a talking point along with other neat tricks of labeling many non-white perpetrators as "white" when they do report some numbers.
The problem for our gaslighting liars Chuck and Rich (Abacus Boy)?
You cant effectively gaslight when the truth is out in the open for all to see. This ain't Russian Collusion and Hunter laptop lies where all the key info is hidden so the hoax moves freely for years.
These crime waves supported by Soros prosecutors are in the cities and suburbs. Everyone sees it, especially historical democratical voters, which is why Chuck's and Rich's standard SOP for pushing New Soviet Democratical BS is so weak and makes them appear even dumber than usual....which is saying something!
Rich said...
Trump really is the Pablo Picasso of BS. I would wager that the crime rate for immigrants is far, far lower than for living former presidents of the US. Doesn't Trump realize he's now part of the rising crime rate statistics ?
This is perfect.
Democrats are ignoring and have stopped reporting on theft, rape, murder and are defunding the police.
They redirect their law enforcement to political opponents.
This is just too perfect.
It doesn't get any better than this. Please keep calling Trump a convicted felon. Please throw him in jail.
please.
let us see
Trump added +1 to crime 34 times + boxes full of documents
Bragg removed -100 by releasing Over 100 Arrested at Columbia After Pro-Palestinian Protest
Is Rich really that dumb? Yes- yes he is.
It is my understanding that neither the Fbi nor its predecessor, the Bureau of Investigation, have ever been authorized by Congress.
Funded, yes. But has there ever been legislation passed by House and Senate signed by prez establhing it?
I've looked and can't find any.
Anybody know? Can anyone point me to the legislation?
John Henry
Pablo Picasso was never called an asshole
===============
what would an asshole paianted by Picasso look like? will anyone be able to tell?
Bob Boyd:
Pablo Picasso was never called an asshole.
Are you being facetious, sarcastic or serious?
Another way we're like the USSR--every statistic is beaten and flayed until it says what the Organs need it to say.
"Pablo Picasso was never called an asshole" is a line from an old punk-rock song.
It is therefore facetious, sarcastic, and serious at the same time.
I'm dead fucking serious.
Pretty sure the figures came from the DOJ admitting that the numbers could not be reconciled with earlier reports because over 2020-2021 so many local municipalities suddenly stopped supplying “uniform crime statistics.” Without uniformity the data is useless as an analytical tool (ie percent change over time). However dishonest media and government types are doing exactly that, taking fewer crimes reported and claiming (without evidence) it extrapolates to “tee hee less crime” for the apparent purpose of claiming Trump is exaggerating or scaremongering.
It’s pretty evil but right in line with the trend Obama set by changing how the labor force is measured, how unemployment figures are calculated, how inflation is calculated, and so on. Even the stock market, goosed with Modern Monetary Theory assets, is a fake measurement now. The only improvements to people’s lives are illusory statistical smoke and mirrors. Actual data, how many part time jobs people have, how much debt the public holds, how stable our electrical grid is, how far one’s paycheck goes, tell a far different story than the gaslighting media.
And Trump is willing to say the Emperor has no clothes. It rings true because it matches people’s lived experience and like calling Biden feeble it is exactly what people see with their own eyes.
Are you being facetious, sarcastic or serious?
Heard it in a song
Can't be wrong
Trump really is the Pablo Picasso of BS
He asserts without evidence.
didn't someone PROMISE us (yesterday) that he wouldn't participate in these discussions anymore?
Gilbar, just refer the the politicians on the left as the Democrat party. Like Garlic is to Vampires Democrat party is to Chuck.
Hey Chuck, I said Democrat. Begone!
If you don't look for stolen votes you won't find them.
I stopped reporting to my parents that I was drinking beer at hight school parties, therefore it never happened.
This concept is only difficult for children, the mentally handicapped, and democrats to understand...
California has it especially bad when it comes to misleading crime data. Because the state decriminalized so many offenses in recent years, arrests and convictions are obviously down. So every Democrat politician is running ads about how "crime is down" under their watch.
The unstated long term purpose of "Defund the Police" is not to get rid of police altogether, only the state and local authorities who are elected (like sheriffs) or beholden to local elected officials.
Do you remember Barack Obama's strange speech in 2008 about creating a "Civilian National Security Force" with as much funding and personnel as the Pentagon itself? It was quickly memory-holed by the press when people demanded to know exactly what the hell he was talking about.
The Democrats devoutly want a robust national police force controlled entirely by career Deep State operatives, along the lines of the Mexican Federales. White Christians from flyover country need not apply, this will be a DEI operation from the outset. They'll use Antifa/BLM thugs, Puerto Ricans, and foreign "refugees" to staff it, and house them in barracks where their only interaction with the locals will be ordering them around at gunpoint and confiscating their weapons.
I believe that today's Soros-dominated Democratic Party is the greatest enemy the United States we grew up in has ever faced. They are more dangerous and evil than Putin, Xi, and all the terrorists and drug lords whoever existed, put together. We HAVE to elect Trump and give him free rein to deliver apocalyptic destruction to the leftist enemies of humanity, starting with demolition of the 3-letter agencies.
That's no doubt all very interesting, but when you consider that the FBI regards parents attending school board meetings as criminal activity, the methodology is kind of secondary.
Crime stats are much like the weather. All you need do to find out about it is walk around a neighborhood and see if the cars are broken in to or if there's a guy with no shirt waving around a bottle or a stick, or proles nodding off while standing up, or if you can hear gunshots and sirens at all hours. Or not. I can know a lot about the weather here just by looking outside and it's same with crime for the most part. I don't need the feds telling me if a neighborhood is safe or not (in their opinion) bc if I open my eyes and look I already know. I don't trust FBI or government statistics in general any farther than I could shove a cue ball up Direktor Wray's ass.
Dear all voters:
Do you want an honest government, with a press that acts as a check on gov't officials?
Then you need to vote straight ticket GOP
Because the bureaucracy and the press are all heavily pro-Dem. Which means they will cover for Dems, lie for Dems, and let teh Dems get away with anything.
So if you want checks on elected officials, you need to make sure that those elected officials are Republicans
"You're not reporting crimes."
- the left Yes, we are.
"You're not reporting crimes."
- the left Well, we're not reporting some crimes, but it's not as bad as you're saying it is.
"You're not reporting crimes."
- the left Not reporting crimes is a good thing.
Just watch.
It used to be that although statistician and demographers would argue about the accuracy of the sampling or the statistical tools use to try to clean up messy data, you could assume that at the input level the data was as accurate as it could be.
No more.
Starting with the jobs numbers during the Obama administration in the lead-up to the Obama vs. Romney election, the worker bees decided that it was important for the numbers to come out a certain way. This has spread, and now data at the input level is unreliable. Everything is corrupted, and you can't even back out estimates of the correct numbers because the data is unreliable in different ways depending on who is in power, how close we are to an election, what trends would be helpful to the budget of the bureaucracy in question.
I've actually had people DEFEND this to me, using the argument that the economy is really just about perception, so if we just make everybody THINK things are going well, things will be going well. They REALLY believe this, and point to the run-up in the stock market immediately after Trump won the election as evidence! "He hadn't put in place any policies, so the increase was based entirely on opinion!"
But the problem with "Statistics as Narratives" is that no one has any idea how to manage an enterprise in a complex economy without accurate data about what is going on. Budgeting, finance, supply chain, storage, shipping, pension contributions, agriculture, forestry ... millions of processes assume that the government numbers are accurate, not some kind of ridiculous "Shoe production is highest in world in workers' paradise of glorious Soviet Russia." At some point--and we may already be there--bad numbers will start causing economic disasters.
Our systems are just not designed to be run by people who lack integrity, but what we have seen over the past decade or more is that all of our institutions are absolutely filled with people who lack integrity.
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