The only path that offers Biden hope seems to be winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He needs all three. Trump only needs one, as long as it's either Michigan or Pennsylvania. (Here's an interactive map to check whether I'm right about that. And here's the "no toss ups" map for reference.)
Here's what the article has to say about Biden's chances in those 3 states: "Michigan Democrats warn that the continuing war in Gaza has galvanized the state’s large Arab-American community and young voters against the president. Despite repeated trips to Pennsylvania, Biden is still in a tough fight in a place where he was once called the state’s 'third senator,' as voters cite concerns about the economy and prices. And in Wisconsin, known for its Democratic organizing prowess, Rep. Mark Pocan said there is work to do. 'The president certainly is showing up a lot,' said Pocan, a progressive Democrat whose district includes Madison, Wis., and some surrounding areas. But he said there are “still some headwinds around cost of living. There’s some specific headwinds around the war in the Middle East, specifically, on conditions in Gaza.'"
Some people are depending on the crazy NY trial to save Joe Biden. For example, Paul Campos, at Lawyers Guns Money: "So everything hinges on the current New York state criminal trial. If Trump is convicted, my confidence that he is going to lose in November goes to pretty much 100% (It may be absurd, but every poll indicates this would have a massively negative effect on his chances, because it’s the kind of information that actually penetrates the skulls of 'low information voters.'). If it’s a hung jury, I really have no sense of how that cuts. An acquittal would be a devastating development, but I think the chances of that are very slim."
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74 comments:
Finally, a wall Biden cares about.
"Rep. Mark Pocan said there is work to do."
that means - there are lies to concoct and sell to the hivemind. Stay loyal. Scare tactics and lies are the lefts best friend.
I think this year is the year that "fluffer" will get added to the list of synonyms for journalist, or is it joirnolist?
"It may be absurd, but every poll indicates this would have a massively negative effect on his chances, because it’s the kind of information that actually penetrates the skulls of 'low information voters.'"
Yes, the thick skulls of all the low-information voters. Who are who, again?
“It isn't so much that liberals are ignorant. It's just that they know so many things that aren't so.” --RR
In a world where everything seems changing and the sands shift beneath your feet, it's comforting to know Paul Campos is the same sleazy obsequious little worm he's always been.
They need Trump to be convicted of a non-crime to help them win.
Total Corruption - out in the open.
In other words, the lawfare of the "crazy" NY trial is the linchpin of the Biden election strategy.
Not convinced the Democrats are that cynical. Read the cynicism dripping from Campos's next the sentence, offered as a parenthetical:
(It may be absurd, but every poll indicates this would have a massively negative effect on his chances, because it’s the kind of information that actually penetrates the skulls of 'low information voters.').
Very cruelly neutral to call Lawyers, Guns, and Money "some people."
Let me tell you about the cost of living. My car insurance premium went up 32% in one year and I haven't had any accidents.
I understand it is the same all around the country for autos and building insurance.
The only path that offers Biden hope seems to be winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. He needs all three. Trump only needs one, as long as it's either Michigan or Pennsylvania. (Here's an interactive map to check whether I'm right about that. And here's the "no toss ups" map for reference.)
I’m not sure what you’re trying to be ‘right’ about but simply clicking the no toss up map then giving those three states to Biden, Trump wins…
One point if you are ‘right’- it demonstrates how by controlling the vote in a couple key counties/cities you can cook the vote so Biden can’t lose…
"It may be absurd, but every poll indicates this would have a massively negative effect on his chances, because it’s the kind of information that actually penetrates the skulls of 'low information voters'."
This is why there is basically 0% chance Merchan will do the right thing and direct a verdict of not guilty- to do anything other than send this to the jury and hope for the best will make Trump stronger electorally.
FYI -- Paul Campos is a law professor at Colorado who's main claim to fame is writing a book insisting that obesity is, in fact, quite healthy. He also has a Left-wing blog and tells people that a lwa education is a waste (he being the prime example, IMO).
I've lived in PA my whole life (44 years) and I'm from Scranton originally. No one, outside the media, ever referred to Biden as PA's 3rd senator. There's this whole mythology that he is seen as some working class, blue collar icon to those from NEPA. In reality, he was seen as that idiot in Delaware that used to live year eons ago.
Ruy Teixeira's take on the state of the race is very similar.
Trump is more likely to lose Wisconsin than the other five swing states but, as you point out, he can lose it and still win the EC.
"All across America, millions of people in so-called ‘Blue States’ are joining our movement based on LOVE, INTELLIGENCE, and, above all, COMMON SENSE." This is exactly the tone and temperament he should be taking on the campaign trail. But I think he is worried the mouth-breathing morons won't show up on election day if they are being perpetually fed their red-meat dog food.
Paul Campos seems a little nutty. Every succeeding poll shows people wising up to the kangarooedness of the NY trial and its exceedingly nutty yet evil judge and evil DemocRAT Lawfare Inc. in general. It's all tiresome. The public is tired of the Stasi.
This slightly OT headline referencing the debate made me laugh: CNN To Hold First 2024 Debate Between Trump And Biden With No Audience
So it's like every day for CNN: No Audience
I think it is a pretty big assumption that a Trump conviction would destroy his support.
The Democrat governor of PA and the State Supreme court have been doing everything possible to rig the election for Biden. Mail in ballots, no check on citizenship, same day registration, counting ballots that come in After the election, etc.
In 2020, Trump won 2/3 of the voters who went to the polls, and only got 1/3 of the mail-in ballots. The D's just manufacture the votes to win. So you can write off Pennyslvannia if you're a Trump supporter.
Michagan is the same. The R's have done zero to correct the massive fraud machine in the detroit area. They will have the election stolen, even assuming Trump can make it close. The Arab vote is a mirage. They'll bitch about "Genocide Joe" but will end up voting D, just like always.
That leaves Winsconsin. God knows that's a thin reed to lean on. You have a massive number of libtards who'll suffer with inflation and high interest rates rather than vote for a Goddamn Republican.
BTW, Merrick Garland "the moderate" AG is already gearing up the DOJ and the FBI to attack anyone who tries to stop voter fraud by claiming they've "violating civil rights" and "The right to vote".
How old is the polling that says voters turn away from Trump if convicted? Was it pre- Fani paying her boy toy? Was it pre- Stormy telling her NSFW story? I bet they haven't asked lately what voters think of Trump's trials.
When I listen to current speculation on political matters in November, this is what I hear:
Moose:"Eadie, beadie, chili beanie, the spirits are about to speak!"
Squirrel:"are they friendly spirits?"
Moose:"Friendly? Just listen!"
Biotrekker said...
FYI -- Paul Campos is a law professor at Colorado who's main claim to fame is writing a book insisting that obesity is, in fact, quite healthy. He also has a Left-wing blog and tells people that a lwa education is a waste (he being the prime example, IMO).
As far as I can tell, his main claim to fame is writing a blog with a double handful of other people where they get to seethe and insult and get asspats about it from the gaggle of commenters, where asspats seems to mean being even more seething and insulting.
I've heard a couple references to car insurance increases, including Dave B's here, as if that were a result of inflation. I don't think it is. Drivers are increasingly aggressive, even on back roads but especially on highways. Tailgating, zipping in and out of lanes, driving way over the speed limit...and no enforcement of traffic regulations. The number and severity of accidents has increased and actuarially that gets distributed across policy holders. Some thing are caused by inflation, but this is the cost of bad behavior
How come Muslims are never accused of dual loyalty? Does it make sense that all Muslims in the United States are expected to be pro-Hamas regardless of from where they or their parents, grandparents. etc. immigrated? Let's face it: they are anti-Jew, just like the Muslims in the U.K., France, and Sweden. Biden's contorting America's foreign policy to appeal to these haters in Michigan and elsewhere is very ugly and very sad.
Trump will be convicted, period. Regardless, Democrats will find the votes they need to pull Joe over the finish line. It's the only explanation for why he's still on the ticket.
I think the car insurance increases are a combination of inflation, lingering part supply issues from COVID, and the technical advancements of modern vehicles make repairs much more expensive.
'The president certainly is showing up a lot'
Is this a net positive for Dems? Apart from Biden bringing bribes, that is. Does anyone see Joe in action, stumbling, misremembering, fighting the teleprompter, and say: that's my guy?
'The president certainly is showing up a lot'
Is this a net positive for Dems? Apart from Biden bringing bribes, that is. Does anyone see Joe in action, stumbling, misremembering, fighting the teleprompter, and say: that's my guy?
I've heard a couple references to car insurance increases, including Dave B's here, as if that were a result of inflation. I don't think it is.
Even though the cost of replacing a car has gone up 80% since COVID, when financing it is taken into account (30% at sticker cost, ~50% interest rate hike)? Well you are certainly entitled to your opinion. But a dollar worth less every year ain't helping insurance costs.
All of the above is a direct result of Biden's policies, which is why Democrats are worrying about "the cost of living" being a "headwind" for Joe's chances.
I don't know how so many hearty, salt-of-the-earth Germans and Scandinavians became such a bunch of liberal simps.
Unless it's all the Palestinians.
Trump needs to start mass deportations in these states first.
warren zevon will get mad from the ether, is he alive or dead,
"Some thing are caused by inflation, but this is the cost of bad behavior"
How do you explain home insurance going up 50% in one year?
It's the only explanation for why he's still on the ticket.
He's still on the ticket because he's POTUS and the head of the party. They can't force him out without a massive fight that would kill their chances, and possibly hurt Dems downticket.
Trump only needs one, as long as it's either Michigan or Pennsylvania. (Here's an interactive map to check whether I'm right about that. And here's the "no toss ups" map for reference.)
Trump can win with just Wisconsin, if he also picks up Nevada, where he's currently leading Biden in the polls.
I've heard a couple references to car insurance increases, including Dave B's here, as if that were a result of inflation. I don't think it is. Drivers are increasingly aggressive, even on back roads but especially on highways. Tailgating, zipping in and out of lanes, driving way over the speed limit...and no enforcement of traffic regulations. The number and severity of accidents has increased and actuarially that gets distributed across policy holders. Some thing are caused by inflation, but this is the cost of bad behavior
So all of these things magically jumped 32% in the last year?
"I don't know how so many hearty, salt-of-the-earth Germans and Scandinavians became such a bunch of liberal simps."
Back in the Old Country, these same people are busy importing the third world, shutting down their economies and preparing to freeze in the dark. Because Global Warming. I wouldn't be expecting much more than that from any who happened to make their way here.
Of course, having American taxpayers fund their defense for a couple of generations has made it possible for them to redirect spending to more progressive causes, so there's that.
Playing with no toss-ups, looks like Wisconsin is sufficient for Trump to win. Playing the game another way, use the 2020 result map, flip Arizona (RCP average +5.2 for Trump) and Georgia (RCP average +4.6 for Trump) to Trump, then pick one: Wisconsin (+0.6 for Trump), Michigan (+0.8 for Trump), Pennsylvania (+2.0 for Trump) for Trump to get to 272 or more.
Still using the 2020 result map, flip Nevada (+6.2 for Trump) along with Arizona and Georgia and then Biden has to run the tables on Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Meanwhile, Virginia (13 points) is becoming within the margin of error (Biden +1.8) and Minnesota (10 points like Wisconsin) is even closer (Biden +0.6). So really Biden has to run the tables on Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Minnesota, while keeping control of Virginia. Trump just needs to pick off one and flip Georgia and Arizona.
Alas, the key take away is Democrats think this trial with no understood felony crime is critical for winning the Presidential election, and none of them have any problems with it. We should all remember this and act accordingly.
Last week I bet my 42 yo libtard vegan college professor robotics startup entrepreneur gear head son that Trump was going to win. He claimed that the ridiculous anti abortion and anti birth control externalities spawned by overturned Roe v Wade will swing the women's vote to Biden because lying to pollsters. Maybe.
What is most concerning about the Biden DNC approach is using an obsolete 50-yo playbook and fooling themselves that it's producing a juggernaut of success. Self delusional body positivity is a fatal flaw.
If that upbeat inclusive complimentary soundbyte from Trump is his new strategy, it could be a landslide. His base is stronger than ever, but he needs a healthy slice of the silent majority Reagan Democrat Bernie boy middle. If Don can make the right pivot and euro-step, he's got a great chance to catch the Dims with their pants down and put them in the pop-corn machine.
Many people don't realize Beau Biden was KIA in the Insurance Wars.
It all depends on the absentee voter fraud in WI, MI, and PA.
The now liberal (four crazy women) WI Supreme Court is going to bring back the drop boxes so Madison, Milwaukee, Racine, and Green Bay can stuff them again. There is also a lib on the court up for re-election next year, and stuffing ballot boxes helps the libs on our Supreme Court, our Beta-Cuck Gov Tony "watch Kenosha burn" Evers, and of course installed President Biden.
I love the State of Wisconsin, but our liberals are so retarded they can't locate a US Mailbox, or their local City Hall.
If Trump can win all the states he won in 2020 plus AZ, GA, and NV, then he can win with any other state joining his win column, including New Hampshire. Without NV, he has to win one of the 3 Blue Wall states he won in 2016
“FYI -- Paul Campos is a law professor at Colorado whose main claim to fame is writing a book insisting that obesity is, in fact, quite healthy. He also has a Left-wing blog and tells people that a lwa education is a waste (he being the prime example, IMO)”
Campos has been a left wing whack job since he first arrived in Boulder, several decades ago. I used to try arguing with him in the Denver Post, where he was writing opinion pieces. So, do his views surprise me in the least? He cheers these LawFare attacks on, because he very much believes that anything that hurts his opponents is worth doing, and doing well, regardless of long term effects. Nothing new for Campos. CU is supposed to have a good law school, but most of those I know who have practiced in CO very long have horror stories about their grads. Mine was an Order of the Coif and Law Review CU grad, who didn’t know what a Directed Verdict was. The jury instructions are a check list, you moron, and you need at least some evidence to support every element, by the time you rest your case.
LawFare is a product of our elite law schools, where the law is seen as malleable, able to be manipulated to your own ends. The ends justify the means, regardless of the societal cost. You would think that Due Process would be a significant issue, since the elite law schools housing and training these people pride themselves on being experts on Constitutional Law. There was an article a day or two ago by Victor David Hanson on the 5 government cases against Trump. He was up to 4 Amdts from the Bill of Rights violated by the government prosecutors, and I think missed the big one (being a historian, and not a lawyer), which is Due Process under the 5th Amdt. Novel interpretations of statutes, never before utilized against defendants, and then surviving appeal, are almost per se Due Process violations, since they fail to put the defendant on notice that his actions would be criminal. Changing statutes of limitations to extend back to the accused actions too violates Due Process, as well as probably comprising an Ex Post Facto law. These elite lawyers know this, but also know that the process is the punishment, and that the five cases against Trump were designed and waged against him for one, and only one, reason, which is to hinder him so much that he loses this upcoming election.
Campos is very obviously hoping for just that, that these five LawFare cases can damage Trump sufficiently that his side can win, despite the horrendous job they have done in the nearly 4 years since they stole the 2020 election. It’s worked before, so why not this time? Because it’s Trump, who has an amazing ability to turn lemons into lemonade.
"I've heard a couple references to car insurance increases, including Dave B's here, as if that were a result of inflation. I don't think it is. Drivers are increasingly aggressive, even on back roads but especially on highways. Tailgating, zipping in and out of lanes, driving way over the speed limit...and no enforcement of traffic regulations. The number and severity of accidents has increased and actuarially that gets distributed across policy holders. Some thing are caused by inflation, but this is the cost of bad behavior"
That is basically horseshit, Guitar Joe. Insurance of all kinds is going through the roof, including homeowners' insurance- I haven't been tailgated or cut off by a house in the last 3+ years.
“Trump can lose Wisconsin AND either Michigan or Pennsylvania and still win.”
My vote is that Trump wins PA before he wins MI. It revolves around voter fraud, which is how the Dems stole these states in 2020. The PA Supreme Court is apparently enforcing the state’s election laws, which makes much of what the Dems did in 2020 and 2022 illegal. Meanwhile, the MI legislature is essentially eliminating the ability to change ballots in many cases. You can recount ballots as often as you want, but you can’t check them for signatures or the like. It stinks to high heaven, but they don’t care, because winning means that no one can challenge you, but you can use the government to attack your enemies.
If Trump is convicted, just ask people *what* Trump was convicted of? I'll bet no one — not even the jurors who convicted him — would be able to state the answer correctly.
I myself can't do it, and I have tried to understand what the crime supposedly is. I even suspect the judge and the prosecutors don't know!
What the hell kind of conviction will this be — conviction of a crime that no one understood, based on the testimony of a huge liar?
My apartment rent went up 10.5% the first year after I moved in. Then 18.9% the next. Because a new owner took over and began renovating the vacant apartments (most likely caused by the rent increases), I expect another massive rent increase notice before October. I suspect they may increase it to the newly-renovated apartments of the same size (which would be a 28% increase) without plans to renovate in hopes I will move out and they can then renovate my unit. TBH, I'm not sure where I will be able to go anywhere close to this area.
MAGA world is nervous that Trump accepted Biden’s debate challenge, and they’ll be looking for a way out. It’s hilarious how fast the narrative went from Biden being old and not knowing where he is to “if he wins, he’s cheating”.
"What the hell kind of conviction will this be — conviction of a crime that no one understood"
The crime is irrelevant, it's getting a conviction that matters.
"Back in the Old Country, these same people are busy importing the third world, shutting down their economies and preparing to freeze in the dark. Because Global Warming. I wouldn't be expecting much more than that from any who happened to make their way here."
I'm talking about the ancestors of the people who settled in Minnesota and Wisconsin in the 1800s when you had to be a self-sufficient and very tough motherfucker just to stay alive.
I understand that Germans and Scandinavians today are communist wimps (basically your average democrat Karen) who can't wipe their own ass without government assistance...
Distraction from the real determining issue - extent of Democrat voter fraud.
Trump and love? Sure. Trump and common sense?
Rich said:
> MAGA world is nervous that Trump accepted Biden’s debate challenge, and they’ll be looking for a way out. It’s hilarious how fast the narrative went from Biden being old and not knowing where he is to “if he wins, he’s cheating”.
I don't think the narrative has changed from "if he wins, he's cheating" at all. This time we're going to see Biden win 100 million votes to Trump's 95 million votes. MI, WI, and PA are going to show 180% turnout in the key districts to make this work.
LLR-democratical Rich @11:43am.
Not even trying anymore.....
LOL
Althouse asked...What the hell kind of conviction will this be — conviction of a crime that no one understood, based on the testimony of a huge liar?
It's be the same type of conviction as all the J6 political prisoners.
Every lib in America would say they were convicted of "insurrection" when NONE of them were charged with participating in an insurrection.
What the hell kind of conviction will this be — conviction of a crime that no one understood, based on the testimony of a huge liar?
Convicted for running as a Republican. They won't admit it now, but if they win the conviction and the election, that's effectively what it will be. Because if they win both, they'll use this tactic again.
"I'm talking about the ancestors of the people who settled in Minnesota and Wisconsin in the 1800s when you had to be a self-sufficient and very tough motherfucker just to stay alive."
Well, there's this...
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
Just because they can't define what the crime IS doesn't mean they don't know it when they see it. Giving Trump his comeuppance and protecting America is reason enough, right?
We'll see what happens. This thing is awfully like a slow motion car crash, though. Audacity is in full supply in both the prosecution and the defense.
Regarding Yancey Ward calling out Guitar Joe's BS at 10:59AM, my home hazard insurance went up 20% this year and I've never made a claim on this home. Since my 2020 premium, my home insurance has climbed 38%. FJB.
Rich, as usual, you are full of shit. Trump won't back out, but the Democrats will continuously try to change the conditions of the debate to try to force Trump to change his mind. Trump won't back out even if the moderator is Adam Schiff.
Biden and his moron staff made this challenge with the full expectation that Trump would decline or ignore the challenge- Trump called their bluff.
I agree with my horrible Legislator that Biden is showing up a lot. But that's all Biden does.
He flies in, gives a speech, and leaves. He never talks to anyone in State. Nothing is unscripted. He might shake hands with a Mayor, or wave to people as he leaves.
They can't force him out without a massive fight that would kill their chances...
Understood, but there's a part of me that can't believe they're going to roll the dice with this guy without having a backup plan. Also, while replacing him may involve a big flight, Democrats are also incredibly disciplined when it comes to sticking together. Regardless, it's going to be an interesting Summer.
One does not "win" those three states. Winning implies a selection of one candidate over the other by voters, rather than the harvesting of mail in ballots, selectively, better than the opposition, before, during, and after the balloting period, by each campaign. That's all that matters. Maybe how the ballots are counted is a bit important, and finding more ballots after the election, if needed. You can call that winning, but if so, the nation is indeed doomed.
It’s hilarious how fast the narrative went from Biden being old and not knowing where he is to “if he wins, he’s cheating”.
It's not a narrative if both things are true.
One wonders if Mr. Campos knows any "low information" voters. Quite a few don't have much Belief in the wisdom of NYC courts.
This thing is awfully like a slow motion car crash,
=================
but is the crash-test-dummy still in the car or has it joined the watching crowd
Trump should agree to any conditions as long as the broadcast is live, uncensored, and at least an hour long. Hell, if Team Joe insists that both be seated, Trump should accept and stand during the debate anyway. Imagine the optics.
Trump check his cards says to Biden: "I'll debate anytime any place"
Biden looks at his cards: "I'll raise you two debates"
Trump without looking at his cards: "See your two and raise two"
Biden: "Where's my pudding?"
Biden and his moron staff made this challenge with the full expectation that Trump would decline or ignore the challenge- Trump called their bluff.
Yep. Rich will never get it. Can you believe Biden and his, "Make my day" crap? More edits than a music video? Ha!
Understood, but there's a part of me that can't believe they're going to roll the dice with this guy without having a backup plan.
These are not evil geniuses making plans within plans around a table in the heart of a volcano lair. You have a bunch of barely competent nepobabies and activists who live and die by the polling cycle. They're rolling the dice with Biden because they have no choice.
Ann Althouse said...
If Trump is convicted, just ask people *what* Trump was convicted of? I'll bet no one — not even the jurors who convicted him — would be able to state the answer correctly.
I myself can't do it, and I have tried to understand what the crime supposedly is. I even suspect the judge and the prosecutors don't know!
What the hell kind of conviction will this be — conviction of a crime that no one understood, based on the testimony of a huge liar?
The crime is that Trump used personal money to pay Cohen and did not use campaign funds.
Thus he did not report the payment of Cohen as an In Kind contribution to his campaign.
They claim that there was no other possible motivation to pay for the NDA and that Trump knowingly broke campaign finance law when his accountant entered "For services rendered" in his ledger while paying the 11 invoices that Cohen delivered to him.
Thus the "incorrect" 11 journal entries, which the previous New York AG refused to prosecute and is now beyond the statute of limitations, become a felony because they were a part of breaking FEC regulations for illegally contributing to a campaign.
I didn't mention anything about homeowners insurance in my post and you didn't address my points about car insurance. However I have not seen my homeowners insurance here in Central PA go up that much. If you live in Florida you certainly going to see an increase because you're building in a higher risk area. In addition housing costs are going up because of all kinds of things, including supply issues. Those are legit inflation issues. I'm just not sure the car insurance one is
Homeowner's insurance goes up because homebuilding costs are being inflated. No one is stepping over people to move to central PA- you no doubt are seeing very little home price inflation there.
"However I have not seen my homeowners insurance here in Central PA go up that much. If you live in Florida you certainly going to see an increase because you're building in a higher risk area."
Where I live, we do not have hurricanes, tornados, blizzards, earthquakes, wildfires, flooding or any other significant natural disasters. Five years ago, my home insurance was around $250/year. This year, it was over $900. I called my agent and asked about the recent increases. Basically, he said it was due to rising replacement costs. What might cause those, do you think? Inflation, maybe? Or what?
In fact Trump can win without Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and given that the election administration and judiciary in these states are fully under Democrat control he'd need a real blowout to overcome the margin of fraud, which grows election by election.
Trump needs to hold on to North Carolina and flip Georgia and Arizona. The margin of fraud is higher in Arizona as that's a fully Dem controlled election process, but Arizona and Georgia seem to be where he's doing best in the polls. Better than the Blue Wall.
Then he needs to flip Nevada, where he's doing OK and which currently has a Republican Governor.
And then he needs to flip the 2nd District of Nebraska (Omaha) which is pretty even between R and D and which the Republicans sportingly declined to gerrymander in 2021. But Trump probably has a 50-50 shot assuming he's doing well enough to flip Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
That would put him on 269 EVs - enough to put the election to the House. And if Trump's doing well enough to get to 269, then the Rs probably have a majority of House delegations (even if they lose the actual House majority.)
A fun January 6 would be if this scenario played out, the Dems had a House majority (but the Rs a majority of state delegations) and the Dem majority refused to allow a state delegation vote :)
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