There are "dozens" of recent polls, but people are still skeptical, Cohn says, and I find it funny, because it corresponds to the way Trump supporters find it hard to believe the results of the 2020 election. It can't be!
Cohn offers the solace that, though "the polling is mostly right... things might change." I'd say you need to shake yourself out of denial and think about why the polls are the way they are. Cohn says:
Young voters are by far the likeliest to say [Biden is] just too old to be an effective president. Many are upset about his handling of the Israel-Hamas war. And all of this is against the backdrop of Mr. Biden’s longstanding weakness among young voters, who weren’t enthusiastic about him in 2020, and Mr. Trump’s gains among nonwhite voters, who are disproportionately young....
Then there's the hope that young people will decline to vote. I was going to write "the shameful hope," but then I remembered my own support for the option of abstention (and my own abstention in 2020). Cohn says:
Almost all of the polls nowadays are among registered voters, not likely voters, and most of Mr. Biden’s weakness is among disengaged voters on the periphery of the electorate. In the latest Times/Siena polling, Mr. Biden leads by 15 points among young voters who turned out in the midterms, while he trails by three points among young voters who didn’t turn out. If these irregular, disaffected voters simply choose not to vote, Mr. Biden will most likely have a healthy lead with young voters....
Democrats have long relied on the notion that getting more people to vote will serve their interest. Is this one more political issue — like freedom of speech — that has shifted from one side to the other?
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Well losing young people explains the college kids riled up to support Hamas. The new astroturf/top down scam. The new BLM. I’ve always suspected young people are immune to the bullshit ops the old white women seem to fall for every time. Also new group of young people not the same as the old group of young people. New ideas new beliefs. That’s doing to hurt Dems…
Democrats have long relied on the notion that getting more people to vote will serve their interest. Is this one more political issue — like freedom of speech — that has shifted from one side to the other?
"Yo, I'm Cardi B and I'm SITTIN' IT OUT. When *they* tell you to vote, you tell them I'M SITTIN' IT OUT!"
"Not happy with the president? Sometimes the loudest voice is the one that stays silent. Show your pride by sittin' it out!"
Well that Madonna ad will get all the true believer Islamists to vote for sure.
The youth vote always rests on two pillars: (1) seeking generous government gifts per their limited life experience and having parents/agencies pay the bills and provide allowances, with little concern about costs or the return on investment, and (2) pushing for broad-brush "correct and fair things," with little sense of gray areas, nuance, or complexity.
Biden's actions may have revealed the negatives of excessive gifts and his inane lockdown policies, and how gifts to one (e.g., remote workers; immigrants) resulted in costs and negatives for others (e.g., low student achievement; lost low income urban jobs). Hamas/Israel adds to the lefty fracture, as mortal enemies are not going to be friends. These now openly-conservative autocrats and purist activists won't tolerate a "big tent" compassion party.
So, prepare for regression to the mean and a return to racial/ethnic balance among the parties. There's nowhere else to go.
Isn't Bobby polling higher than both of them with young voters? If the Dems are relying on malaise to keep people at home, they're in trouble.
I find it funny, because it corresponds to the way Trump supporters find it hard to believe the results of the 2020 election. It can't be!
It wasn’t.
Althouse said...
There are "dozens" of recent polls, but people are still skeptical, Cohn says, and I find it funny, because it corresponds to the way Trump supporters find it hard to believe the results of the 2020 election. It can't be!
Except the former "ought" is about predictive polling and who people should vote for, while the latter Trump supporter skepticism is about the way the votes were actually counted in Democrat enclaves within a limited number of swing states.
Althouse said...
Then there's the hope that young people will decline to vote. I was going to write "the shameful hope," but then I remembered my own support for the option of abstention (and my own abstention in 2020).
Again, there ought to be "shame" as here in the hope that other peoples' abstention will affect the outcome in favor of your preference - and the negative incentive that creates to dissuade others from voting - not shame in the individual's choice to abstain.
Politically, Joe Biden has to support Israel to at least some extent or risk losing financial donations from American Jews in the coming campaign. His support for Hamas, tepid as it is, will not be enough to hold antisemitic Gen-Zers, but it may be too much for at least some well-off American Jews. Political malpractice writ large.
Donald Trump has a daughter who’s a giyoret and three Jewish grandchildren. He has no reason to pursue the votes from antisemites. He will chase after Gen-Z and Millennial votes among the people who work for a living and need the American economy to be fixed so that they can see real wage gains once again, the way they did in 2019.
1) THe Democrats are planning to cheat, just like they did in 2020, and the RNC is doing nothing to stop them.
2) Democrats complain but they ALWAYS vote D.
3) Democrats have solved their turnout problem, and the problem of getting illegal aliens the vote by going to mail-in ballots. Their voters wont go to the polls but they will sign off on a voter ballot if you put it under their nose. And since the D controlled voter officials wont check, illegals can vote in perfect safety.
4) Mitt Romney has officially announced he will vote Biden in 2024. So, Biden is a shoe-in.
I'd love to think that the youth has a sense of decency and is upset at Genocide Joe for giving Israel THOUSANDS of Bombs to drop on civilians in Gaza (12,000 innocent civilians killed by Israel so far), and will turn out in Nov 2024 to vote against him.
But I doubt that will happen. D's just vote D. No matter what.
Substitute teaching in a majority hispanic populated High School in rural inland Florida. Wonderful American kids. When circumspectly questioned most of them seem to support Trump. Seniors that will be able to vote next year anyways... These are third generation Hispanic Americans that speak with out trace of accent except that of the South.
All of this blather is useless.
If it's Biden v Trump - biden will win again. If Biden were really in trouble - he'd be ending his re-election bid now.
Perhaps Biden will step down at the convention - and just hand it to Newsum.
**fixed.
Wow, Madonna had a lot of work done before she really went off the deep end on plastic surgery recently. Pretty sure that nose isn't the same one she had in Evita.
...because it corresponds to the way Trump supporters find it hard to believe the results of the 2020 election. It can't be!
It's not just disappointment and disbelief. "It can't be!" sounds like a temper tantrum.
We saw the 2020 absentee fraud effort forming in April 2020 when liberals claimed you were 'risking your life' to vote in the Wisconsin spring election. We watched cites like Madison, WI openly violate ballot harvesting laws, and chain of custody requirements...all allowed/ignored by the WEC.
We saw it all. The list goes on and on, and it's not just circumstantial. Only a fool or a coward believes Biden won the 2020 election. People with sever TDS and hatred of the working class like sex club member Bill Mahar and the demon Keith Olbermann...and a large majority of PHDs employed on college campuses.
Younger Millennials and Generation Z struggle to afford rent, groceries, and gas. They can't buy quality cars. They may be locked out of the housing market for life unless they inherit some $$ from Gen X or their Boomer Grandparents.
And they carry student debt for degrees that don't make them any money so Ivory Tower Liberals can keep their cush jobs at American colleges. Maybe someday they will wake up and figure out it was the liberal education establishment that really fucked them.
It'll be a good day for America if that ever happens. But with all the brainwashing they've been put through, I'm skeptical. I can maybe see Generation Z alpha-males turning on the D's (black and white), but the Generation Z women and Beta males are locked in.
The media will try to tell you Biden isn't popular, but with the help of Steve Schmidt, Dean Phillips launched a primary campaign against Biden, and now, less than 30 days later, his political career is over.
There's no public appetite for a challenge to Biden. It's a narrative created by the media to make 2024 feel close so you tune in every day to keep up with the horse race.
"Politically, Joe Biden has to support Israel to at least some extent or risk losing financial donations from American Jews in the coming campaign. His support for Hamas, tepid as it is, will not be enough to hold antisemitic Gen-Zers, but it may be too much for at least some well-off American Jews. Political malpractice writ large."
A classic bon mot, from of all people, Karl Marx, referred to French socialist Proudon: "He seeks synthesis, and all he achieves is composit error."
"Politically, Joe Biden has to support Israel to at least some extent or risk losing financial donations from American Jews in the coming campaign. His support for Hamas, tepid as it is, will not be enough to hold antisemitic Gen-Zers, but it may be too much for at least some well-off American Jews. Political malpractice writ large."
A classic bon mot, from of all people, Karl Marx, referred to French socialist Proudon: "He seeks synthesis, and all he achieves is composit error."
THOUSANDS of Bombs to drop on civilians in Gaza (12,000 innocent civilians killed by Israel so far),
Attribution? Evidence? Empty structures. Like the Hamas rocket that exploded in front of their hospital hideout? The civilian terrorists or shields? Hamas's progress through murder, rape, and torture?
Well thats dr evil for you he could get eskimoes to reject snow
Well thats dr evil for you he could get eskimoes to reject snow
Democrats have long had a strategy that relies on young adults both turning out and voting for Democrats. If young voters abstain, that's trouble for Dems. If they vote for other candidates, that's more obviously trouble for Dems. They should take no comfort from the prospect of (exaggerating) three out of five young people voting for Biden when only those five youth voted for anyone.
"Politically, Joe Biden has to support Israel to at least some extent or risk losing financial donations from American Jews in the coming campaign. His support for Hamas, tepid as it is, will not be enough to hold antisemitic Gen-Zers, but it may be too much for at least some well-off American Jews. Political malpractice writ large."
Genocide Joe, has always been one of Israel's biggest supporters. From a recent Reuters news article:
Entering national politics in 1973, Biden spent the next five decades forging his policy positions - iron-clad support for Israel's security coupled with backing for steps toward Palestinian statehood - as he served as U.S. senator, Barack Obama's vice president and finally president.
His career was marked by deep engagement with the Israeli-Arab conflict, including an oft-retold encounter with Prime Minister Golda Meir who told the young lawmaker in 1973 on the cusp of the Yom Kippur War that Israel's secret weapon was "we have no place else to go."
During his 36 years in the Senate, Biden was the chamber's biggest recipient in history of donations from pro-Israeli groups, taking in $4.2 million, according to the Open Secrets database.
Left unsaid is that Biden's Grandchildren are Jewish. And he recently got down on his knees in the Oval office and kissed the hand of the Israeli President.
So, Genocide Joe isn't being "pressured" into supporting Israel. He is a lifelong zionist. What's amusing is the Reuters article talks about "Biden's father.. who insisted following WW II..there was no doubt of the justness of establishing Israel as a Jewish homeland in 1948". Of course, Biden's father was a nobody. And never served in WW II and neither did Biden serve in Vietnam. But I'm sure Biden father was 110 percent in favor of those OTHER Americans dying to WWII to "Stop the Nazis".
Rich, Steve Shit couldn't win an election if the opponent was Jeffrey Dahmer.
@ rcocean If the alleged "12,000 innocent civilians killed by Israel so far" includes the people who were celebrating as Hamas paraded the bodies of raped and murdered Israeli women through the streets, then I have zero sympathy for them.
Yeah Clyde, and if people like you die tommorrow, I wont have any sympathy either. I'm all out of it for souless genocidal ghouls who love the sight of dead kids. Do you want to go over and kill a few yourself?
After all, I'm sure you're quite the all around tough guy and keyboard kommando. And why don'you defend Israels genocidal policy instead of pointing to dead Isreali's as if two wrongs make a right.
"Democrats have long had a strategy that relies on young adults both turning out and voting for Democrats."
Weeell, to paraphrase Churchill, if you are 21 and don't believe in raping and killing random women because your Great Grand Pa was bought or tricked out of his olive grove 75 year ago, you have no heart...
Even the Hatfields and McCoys did not rape each others women, and they were the most fierce of the American feuders. Rape followed by murder is a characteristic of Hamas. We have a new society, a new justice, where crimes in the past are carried forward, sons and daughters are guilty . Rape innocent Jews because of Palestinian grievance. Rape all women due to unspecified grievance. Do you think this good time should roll?
Can any leftist here agree that rape is not to be used as a tool of policy? Buler? Buler?
Go fellate the Hamas terrorists like you have been, Rcocean. I’m done wasting time on you.
@rcocean, why are you jumping all over Clyde? Is it because secretly you wish you could go into Israel and rape a few pretty Sabras and then go behead some Israeli babies?
I don’t suppose it helps demented Joe Biden’s standing with Gen-Z that it will be hard to fight all the wars he (and Nikki Haley) want to fight in the face of severe recruitment shortfalls without reinstituting a draft,
@Clyde, you’re right, but it’s a waste of time to try to educate someone who is convinced he has a lock on all the world’s knowledge. Usually I counsel people just to laugh at folks like rcocean, but October 7th was no laughing matter.
REocean -
do tell us how upset you are that Hamas struck first - and sucker-punched and massacred innocents using sickening methods of torture - - while you Palestinian-adoring- Historically ignorant fools said nothing.
FU.
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