Wow...seeing #HurricaneOtis rapidly strengthen from a Tropical Storm yesterday at noon to a Category 5 Hurricane at midnight is astounding...almost mind boggling. #Acapulco #Hurricane pic.twitter.com/9jgOu1F8Bg
— Meteorologist Zach Maloch (@ZachMalochWX) October 25, 2023
October 25, 2023
Otis.
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That's pretty wild. I'd best check the map to see where this thing is planning to go if it crosses over into the Gulf. Gulp.
Mind boggling. In all his 5 years as a meteorologist (aka. weatherman) he's never seen such a thing!
Why is this so mind-boggling? Obviously it is an existence proof that under the right conditions things can (ahem) spiral very quickly along an exponential path to capture whatever arbitrary superlative (Cat 1, Cat 5, hors categorie, really huge, dude) we assign to it. In this case I have to guess that conditions were indeed "correct," i.e. "The Perfect Storm," and therefore this could indeed happen.
What I'd like to know is, since the conditions represent a weather-state that is absolutely JAMMED with energy --warm sea water powering warm air to rise and cool in spectacular fashion, driving a giant turbo of heat exchange-- will its rapid (almost explosive) culmination mean a rapid demise? Is this hurricane's life cycle an example of "the bigger/quicker they come, the bigger/quicker they fall"? Exponential processes are not sustainable over the long haul: they "blow up."
Would someone with some real science chops help shape this primitive speculation? Thanks in advance.
Otis
And so begins the gradual transition from Palliwood back to Extreme Weather Porn. The news is such a predictable business.
Invasion of our Southern border, the sequel?
PSA: one of the best places for hurricane coverage is here: https://theeyewall.com. These are the guys who got Houston through Harvey (and even Ike in 2008, when Eric Berger worked for the Chronicle). This is their "all hurricane season" blog. They are the polar opposite of the TV weatherman screaming "we're all gonna die". Very calm, factual coverage - they usually try to explain why something will or won't happen. When they make a mistake, they admit it and if they can, explain why as well. Rare in any kind of news coverage, never mind weather. I can't recommend them enough.
this is ABSOLUTE PROOF of climate change!!!
a hundred years ago, NO pacific hurricane would have been observed doing this..
because no one watched pacific hurricanes
Carnot Heat Engines can be very efficient.
From one of the NHC discussions yesterday: "Otis has explosively intensified 95 kt during the past 24 hours, a mark only exceeded in modern times by Patricia in 2015...."
Climate is happening!
Impressive, but it will be less than a tropical storm again by this evening. Although it intensified very rapidly, it did not have time to become a large storm system. I hope the damage has not been widespread, and hope there is no loss of life.
Levi is pretty good, too - tropicaltidbits.com
Vonnegan @ 8:33: thanks for the link, I am going to check that out.
Maloch?
This happened because waters off Mexico are right now up to 4-5°C (10°F) warmer than normal for this time of year.
Hey Andy! Barney forgot to lock the jail cell and Otis got out and went on a bender!
For some reason the fact that the experts couldn't predict what this storm would do in the next 24 hours makes their predictions about what the weather will do for the next a hundred years even more infallible.
I always thought Barney should have kept the Mayberry jail cell door locked as a precaution!
The NOAA hurricane center stops the storm track at 1am Thursday, in southern Mexico, and the explanation seems to be that the storm isn't going any further inland, it is just stopping. Somehow I think that may be not quite so.
Puerto Escondido will be going off. Huge surf. Glad I'm not there.
Climate is what you expect.. weather is what you get. Ryan Hall Y'all has an interesting take on how this Pacific hurricane will impact whether across the United States.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRfT3EvEHWc&pp=ygUXcnlhbiBoYWxsIHknYWxsIHdlYXRoZXI%3D
When pinned down, some of the "experts" grudgingly admit the Hunga Tonga volcano raising the water vapour level in the stratosphere by 10 to 15 percent "may" have something to do the screwy weather since January 2022, BUT fossil fuels are gonna destroy the earth!!
Such things have happened before, we just forget them.
@Jake at 8:16am
Came here for this : )
"My man!"
I was down that way in'99 on a research ship with a storm developing in the area Otis is. It was just strengthening and forecast to head toward Hawaii due to a deep low over Texas. So being 200 miles south what we got was long swell with glass tops. Eerie. It was to pass to our west overnight. At 5 am I was woken from a dead sleep by the watch telling me a shaft bearing was over heating. Losing have your propulsion with a storm even 200 miles away focuses the mind. I was, as they say "woke". My first question was "where is the storm". I was on the bridge before the young officer had the answer. No problems, but we did head east away from any projected paths. Rigged a water flow to cool and finished our work for repair during the regular port call which took an extra day.
It only takes a few variable for ho hum to become oh hell. Like when Katrina went up the Pearl River in 2005 so that there was no drain for the storm surge which piled up in the Delta and across the coast of Mississippi. A bit east or west and the damage would have likely been less.
Otis elevated quickly?
NHC shows Otis ashore, bare hurricane at 80 mph sustained at 10 am and down to a storm by 7 pm. Mountains must be gutting him. Lots of rain in SW Mexico.
MB @ 11:30: "Otis elevated quickly?"
ISWYDT.
GROAN.
This happened because waters off Mexico are right now up to 4-5°C (10°F) warmer than normal for this time of year.
Completely False. Try Again. (Link with the data)
"For some reason the fact that the experts couldn't predict what this storm would do in the next 24 hours makes their predictions about what the weather will do for the next a hundred years even more infallible."
What happens in the next 24 hours is weather. Of course, nobody can be sure what's going to happen there. But the next hundred years? That's climate, not weather. And the science is settled on that. It's been reported by all the respectable news sources, don't you know?
Rich said:
This happened because waters off Mexico are right now up to 4-5°C (10°F) warmer than normal for this time of year.
MadisonMan said...
Completely False. Try Again. (Link with the data)
************
Way to stick it to him with the FACTS, MM!!!
Here’s to Dr. George Fischbeck, beloved KABC SoCal weatherman!
Now there was a weatherman who knew his stuff!
When pinned down, some of the "experts" grudgingly admit the Hunga Tonga volcano raising the water vapour [sic] level in the stratosphere [probably means "atmosphere" here] by 10 to 15 percent "may" have something to do [with] the screwy weather since January 2022.
Yes. And at least water vapor has the decency to actually be a greenhouse gas, unlike CO2.
As a gas engineer, you know people whose job it is to work with the actual physical properties of gases not the theoretical properties like "climate modelers" do, recently pointed out even greenhouses cool to ambient nighttime temperatures overnight. Every night. Greenhouses only magnify the heat while the sun is shining and there is no carryover to the next day.
OMG! Weather!
George Fischbeck got his start in Albuquerque, NM. He was wonderful!
A "study" comes out a few days ago with the conclusion that hurricanes are strengthening quicker, and voila, Hurricane Otis!
The climate crisis grifters are getting desperate.
Is it possible to stop the wind? Or even control it?
Is the hurricane getting bigger or are they just zooming in on it in order to make it look as if it is? Look closely at the shoreline.
Check out the pocket of 30° C (86° F) sea surface temperatures just off Acapulco. And there was a lack of wind shear due to El Nino.
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/equatpac.c.gif
Rich: MadisonMan kindly supplied the relevant NOAA data in a nice color-coded map. Looking at that, I'd say your "4-5 degrees C" is more like -1 to +1, with maybe a tad of +2 off Baja. Can you tell us where you were getting your "information"? Thanks in advance.
Rich got the data from his anus.
the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano of last year has injected enough water vapor into the atmosphere to warm Earth for at least another year. Water is a more effective "greenhouse gas" than CO2. I am loving the warm fall we are having in the Chicago area, it was 80 degf yesterday. So the hurricane is an example of explained variance.
Well, Otis hit Acapulco hard and then ran inland and then... died. Just like NOAA said it would. Well called, NOAA.
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