May 30, 2023

"Nearly half (45%) of Republican voters – including those who lean toward the GOP – say Trump is definitely the strongest candidate..."

"... to beat President Joe Biden in 2024, and another 18% think he is probably the strongest candidate. Just one-third of GOP voters say another Republican would definitely (13%) or probably (19%) be a stronger candidate than Trump. Among voters who name Trump as their top-of-mind preference for the GOP presidential nomination, 74% say he is definitely the strongest candidate the party can put up against Biden and 21% say he probably is. Among those who express support for another candidate or have no choice at this stage, nearly 4 in 10 still feel Trump is either definitely (23%) or probably (16%) the strongest nominee the GOP can field. Only 22% of this group says the strongest Republican contender would definitely be someone other than Trump and 33% say it would probably be another candidate."

ADDED:
“If your main argument to Republican voters is that Trump wouldn’t be the party’s strongest nominee, you’ve got a heck of a challenge ahead of you,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “There’s a bit of a chicken and egg problem with assessing electability. As we found in our polling during the 2020 Democratic primaries, if voters back a candidate based on issues or character they also tend to feel that candidate is the most electable. However, this still underscores the larger point in this poll. If your message to voters who support Trump is he cannot win, you are going to hit a brick wall. Even if you eat into the group who thinks he is only ‘probably’ the strongest candidate, you may still not capture enough of the Republican electorate to overcome Trump’s hardcore base support.”

53 comments:

AMDG said...

These people need to take a look at swing state polls. Trump trails Biden in every single one If nominated he will not win one additional state that he won in 2029.

Nominating Trump is national suicide.

Leland said...

That is a very confusing paragraph that isn't cleared up by clicking the link.

Enigma said...

More harsh division or a slow awakening?

Monster's Ball (2001): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WojloJcW1Yc

Old and slow said...

Perhaps they are right about this. I suspect he is not the best candidate.

RideSpaceMountain said...

The first time they're unscripted on a stage together is going to be lit. Trump is a natural showman. That's his preferred battleground. DeSantis will need to cling to his record and deliverables and focus on Trump's wasted opportunities - of which there are hundreds - and terrible personnel choices to win.

DeSantis needs to focus on his flubs. If he drifts into the hyperbolic rodeo Trump can outrange him with his lasso, SirSmearsALot. DeSantis either stays away from smears or smears Trump first. That's the only way I see him cutting chunks of his base.

Original Mike said...

I fear that the waving red cape that is Trump is enough of a stimulus for the democrats to pull out all the election shenanigan stops again. That would be hard to beat.

Mason G said...

The people I know who support Trump seem to understand perfectly well what they're getting with him, and are good with that. Good luck splitting them off.

Spoiler alert for leftists- it's not a cult. You know, like the "climate change" or "men can have babies" cults you're probably familiar with. I know it's tough for you guys to understand *cough*Obamahopeandchange*cough*, but believe it or not, there it is.

M said...

I'm a 52 year old early retired woman who has a Master's Degree in Environmental Engineering (there was no such thing as global warming when I was being educated at Ivy League universities, btw). And, I absolutely love Trump. He is the ONLY "politician" NOT in someone's pocket, and he loves this country. He is the only one who could possibly get this place back on track. But, as a pessimist, I feel the country is too far gone thanks to crazy (and hateful) liberal politics.

Big Mike said...

@AMDG, got any links to those swing state polls.

I’ve been saying for months that the nomination is Trump’s to lose. That doesn’t man he can’t lose it.

Kevin said...

Strongest candidate: Most able to deal with the current media and their tactics.

Anyone who thinks the GOP's opponent is Biden is living in the last century.

Temujin said...

Check back later this year. Polling today means as much as telling me what the temperature and humidity is going to be in Chicago on Dec. 24.

hombre said...

Two problems with Trump. First he is a rotter. Second, because he is a rotter Democrats believe they can ignore the rules of decent, lawful behavior to defeat him. By now they may feel entitled to do that with any Republican, but certainly with Trump.

I'm not a Republican and have no say. If he is nominated I will vote for him, but if the Dems can cheat him out of it again the country will be truly lost.

DINKY DAU 45 said...

45% OF REPUBS THINK THE LAST LOSING GUY is the best candidate? Gluttons for punishment and a sad state of affairs if that's the case. The fella is an indicted,2x impeached, ready for a RICO and Espionage charge with Porn fraud payments, head of an already documented criminal organization and a guy who shut government down twice(because he couldnt get his way) ,charged up 25% of total debt limit in a mere 4 years and a partridge in a pair tree and already beat by 'WEEKEND AT BERNIES" Sleepy JOE WHO CAN'T EVEN FIND HIS PANTS. Yikes Unfortunately they will have to follow the bouncing ball as the base drives' em to oblivion. Good luck if that's the best. What was that saying by PT BARNUM "there's a sucker born every minute" c'mon man use your head.

Lyssa said...

I hate to say it, but I suspect that Trump is the most likely R to win the general mainly *because of* Trump himself. That is, if anyone but Trump wins the nom, Trump will so viciously (and effectively, as is his way) attack that candidate that he will peel off enough of a crucial mass of would-be Republican voters that the R candidate won’t have a chance. This is in no way to say that I think Trump has a good chance, or that another candidate would not have a really good chance, absent Trump’s attacks.

It’s a self-inflicted mess, but I really have no idea how we get out of it. It’s astonishing how much power this one man has right now.

MadisonMan said...

Oh Good. Democrat-created polls telling us what to think and believe.

Gusty Winds said...

If you get the targeted Democrat absentee voter fraud under control, or complete with it in 2024, Trump is the best candidate and can win his third Presidential election.

Trump got 74 million votes in 2020 vs 63 Million in 2016. We all know Biden's 81 million 2020 vote total is total bullshit. So was stopping the vote count when Trump was FAR ahead on election night...and then the long drawn out vote counts in Atlanta, Detroit, Philly, and Maricopa County AZ. At least Wisconsin turned their absentee fraud in quickly.

When Obama beat McCain in 2008 he got 69 Million votes, and 65 million in 2012.

paminwi said...

Trump supporters who are Trump or die have no clue that it is individual states that matter.
AND they don’t want to be educated as to why they are being short sighted.
And then when Trump loses all they will moan about it is a stolen election.

So very tired of ignorance.

Krumhorn said...

While I would happily vote for him if he’s the candidate, it cannot be ignored that he solidifies his opposition into a massive block of unified bug-eyes lefties, LLRs, never-Trumpers, Lincolners, and assorted other hare-brained Chucks…..not to mention the usual 18% undecided who will undoubtedly decide against him just to avoid more impeachments.

- Krumhorn

Mike (MJB Wolf) said...

These people need to take a look at swing state polls. Trump trails Biden in every single one If nominated he will not win one additional state that he won in 2029.

Uh huh. And if Biden is still the nominee?

retail lawyer said...

Don't all Republican voters lean towards the GOP? Maybe some Republican voters lean away from the GOP?

rhhardin said...

Vote for the Don Rickles sense of humor, is my advice.

gilbar said...

i Realize, that you ALL are Much More Smarter than *i* am; so help me out..
Please name a republican that You think COULD win.

It's EASY to say "oh, Trump can't Win".
Let me know WHO you think COULD perform past the margin of fraud?
And, THEN.. Tell what Acid you are smoking? It must be WAY better than the old oral type

Limited blogger said...

Chris Christie is joining the fray. This will further dilute Ron's support.

Do you want to see Asa Hutchinson debating Chris Christie debating Mike Pence?

Trump should just be declared the nominee to save the RNC money and to get the general election campaign started forthwith.

Breezy said...

Meanwhile Biden is shriveling up. There will be several candidates able to beat Biden at the rate of his dessiccation. That’s another reason Biden will not be the nominee. The Dems need a contender whose “fortified” vote tallies can be believed, even by just a smidge.

grimson said...

The May Harvard-Harris poll found that if the election were held today and between Biden and DeSantis, each received 42 percent support. And if it were between Biden and Trump, Biden received 40 percent to Trump's 47 (including 47 percent of Independents).

But it also found that if Trump and Biden are the nominees, 66 percent think we need another choice. That's true of Republicans (59 percent), Democrats (67 percent), and Independents (74 percent).

MadTownGuy said...

As with any poll, the results depend on the phrasing of the question. Asking who's the strongest nominee sounds like begging the question. Did the pollsters ask in a way to arrive at a predetermined outcome?

cubanbob said...

If the Republicans don't nominate a lunatic or a nazi I don't see how Biden can win. While I realize there are a lot of grifters, marxist-progressives, government workers, academics and those who believe themselves immune to the economic and social stupidity of the Democrats, that still isn't enough to overcome the reality based voters. Trump has a track record and so does Biden. If Trump can shut up and stay on time and target all he has top do is ask the question "are you better off now than four years ago"? That is literally all he has to do. Come on Don, that isn't that hard to do.

Michael K said...

The dilemma is which to choose. Policy, which is Trump, or electability, which may be DeSantis. The question is whether either can defeat the Democrat fraud machine.

Yancey Ward said...

The strongest candidate is the one who figures out how to stop or counter mail-in-vote fraud. Until that is done, the GOP is up Shit Creek without a paddle.

mikee said...

The horses aren't even out of their trailers back behind the stables, and the racetrack announcers are going mad with the excitement!

Yancey Ward said...

"These people need to take a look at swing state polls."

Please tell us- what do you call a swing state? I am guessing you think it is Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, with a possibility of adding in Georgia and Arizona, right?

Here is the hard truth- Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are only in play in a fair election if Trump is the candidate- any other GOP candidate loses each of those states without ballot fraud by 3-6% minimum- those are long term partisan leans of those three states- to win them, a standard GOP candidate needs to win the national vote total by at least 3% to be competitive in those states. A DeSantis or another standard GOP candidate might reel Arizona and Georgia (and Arizona is doubtful with full mail-in-voting in effect) back into the red column, but would probably lose Iowa and would have to fight hard for Ohio. However, a GOP candidate can win every state Trump won in 2020, retake Georgia and Arizona, and will still lose the election with only 260 electoral votes.

gilbar said...

What was IN those vaccines? WHY did they insist that we ALL get them??
COVID ‘More Severe’ after Vaccination, Says Study.
COVID-19 vaccines have been found to make the virus ‘more severe’ after vaccination, as well as increasing the risks of autoimmune disease, myocarditis, and cancer-cell growth. The news comes from a recent peer-reviewed study published by the Multi-disciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI).

Those administered with two or more injections of the mRNA vaccine were found to have “abnormally high levels of IgG4,” which are “a group of fibroinflammatory diseases that affect a variety of tissues resulting in tumor-like effect and/or organ dysfunction.”

“Increased IgG4 synthesis due to repeated mRNA vaccination with high antigen concentrations may… cause autoimmune diseases, and promote cancer growth and autoimmune myocarditis in susceptible individuals,” the study states.

Multiple vaccines, moreover, impact the severity of COVID-19. The study – for which the authors declared no conflict of interest – states:
“The conventional SARS-CoV-2 vaccine’s ability to provide immunological protection may be significantly impacted by over-vaccination. If this happens, either newly diagnosed COVID-19 cases or people who have already contracted the virus again may have a more severe case of the illness.”

When you see a leftist.. Remember.. they WERE Trying to Kill YOU

Michael said...

Trump cannot win against Biden. In fact he is the only person Biden can beat. Half the commenters on this blog could beat him.

Dude1394 said...

Cannot wait to correct the illegal 2020 election by electing President Donald J Trump.

Never-Biden Never-Putin said...

655 people asked.

Kai Akker said...

Trump may or may not be "strong." Four people discussing all this yesterday at our house -- all 2x Trump voters -- and not one of them wanted him to get the nomination.

It doesn't matter. Pelosi has the schedule set. He will be arrested, charged with inciting the sedition under which the Proud Boys and various other unfortunate patsies have been convicted, and they will leak crap for months until they decide it's time to put him on trial.

That will be the last opportunity for Trump, because it will be so transparent to many.... but will the GOP put a guy charged with treason on their ballot?

Buttgieg vs DeSantis. 3 - 535 EC.

gilbar said...

Michael said...
In fact he is the only person Biden can beat. Half the commenters on this blog could beat him.

put the pipe Down, Michael.. You're hallucinating bad enough as it is.
no one outside of this blog has ever Heard of half of the commenters here. Your comment makes NO Sense
i can't believe that you'd believe something as patently stupid as that.. Ergo, you're Lying.

gilbar's 1st rule of lying is: In order for a lie to be believed.. It MUST BE Believable
please try again, and tell us how ANY republican could win 270 electoral votes

M said...

I'm very tired of the ignorance of people who believed the Russia collusion hoax and, in fact, anything the hateful lies that media continued to spew. If you couldn't think for yourself and see through the liberal hatred, you should sit down and keep quiet. Period.

M said...

Now that democrats have mastered ballot harvesting (and more than likely much more nefarious tactics), they will be hard pressed to ever let a Republican win the presidency again.

Rabel said...

I'm reading these comments and it feels like I'm living under a bridge in olden Norway.

Never-Biden Never-Putin said...

live:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EOhoUdiM7b8

Big Mike said...

Don't all Republican voters lean towards the GOP?

@retail lawyer, well, actually no. Many of Trump’s voters are just that — Trump voters. Neither Ron DeSantis nor any other GOP candidate has any sort of claim on these voters. They remember 2019’s economy, and they want it back by day before yesterday. Hopefully DeSantis and his political brain trust, should they win the nomination, has a sound strategy for hanging on to these voters or the handlers for the detestable, senile, utterly incompetent Joe Biden will wipe the floor with him.

Jamie said...

Trump supporters who are Trump or die have no clue that it is individual states that matter.
AND they don’t want to be educated as to why they are being short sighted.
And then when Trump loses all they will moan about it is a stolen election.


I'm sure this is true for a minority of Republicans. But ask yourself: when someone is moaning about a stolen election on account of a popular vote loss, what's the usual party affiliation of that person?

Republicans typically seem to have a better grasp of our electoral system than Democrats in my experience. Has yours differed?

As for the 2020 stolen election, I've heard three primary points of view from Republicans who think it was at least hinky:

1. There was massive electoral fraud everywhere. (This is the LIV position.)

2. There was targeted fraud (and other shenanigans) where it needed to be in order to beat Trump in the electoral college. This fraud/shenanigans included ballot harvesting, improper absentee ballot permissions, total lack of normal ballot controls like ID and signature verification, and plain old garden-variety ballot fraud in some places.

3. The news media, Democrat policymakers, and bureaucrats colluded to render Trump unelectable throughout the election year-plus. They ran false negative stories about him and killed apparently true negative stories about Biden. They killed or wildly spun as negative any positive stories about him and ran ridiculous puff pieces about Biden, who could not appear in public for more than half an hour at a time. They didn't just do these things on a national scale, e.g. network news, but down to the individual, e.g. on Facebook and Twitter. They pushed through new voting regs in shady to illegal ways in certain key jurisdictions - regs that removed all electoral controls, effectively allowing anyone to vote regardless of eligibility and making it impossible to tell whether anyone had voted improperly (or multiply), and then, when anyone questioned these measures, wrapped themselves in the flag and claimed that those questions were automatically disqualified and in fact denounced because they were racist (the usual thing; no doubt there were other reasons too). Et cetera, et cetera.

I'm with 3 with a sprinkler of 2. Plus, I do recognize that Trump is great at getting out the vote... on both sides.

rehajm said...

None of them can overcome the left’s Cook the Vote machine.

Kevin said...

Chris Christie is joining the fray. This will further dilute Ron's support…

…by the number of registered voters in Christie’s family.

Kevin said...

I’m so old I remember when Trump would never be elected President.

Mark said...

"If the Republicans don't nominate a lunatic or a nazi I don't see how Biden can win."

Culture warriors win primaries but lose the Presidency. Lunatic in this case is decided by what you liked to call low information voters. Ron married-at-Disney DeSantis being considered one by the middle as he fights Disney.

Narayanan said...

AMDG said...
These people need to take a look at swing state polls. Trump trails Biden in every single one If nominated he will not win one additional state that he won in 2029.
=======
?even the 5 sketchy states flip/won by FJB?

wendybar said...

Mason G said...
The people I know who support Trump seem to understand perfectly well what they're getting with him, and are good with that. Good luck splitting them off.

Spoiler alert for leftists- it's not a cult. You know, like the "climate change" or "men can have babies" cults you're probably familiar with. I know it's tough for you guys to understand *cough*Obamahopeandchange*cough*, but believe it or not, there it is.

5/30/23, 12:13 PM


100% THIS^^^^^^

wendybar said...

M said...
I'm a 52 year old early retired woman who has a Master's Degree in Environmental Engineering (there was no such thing as global warming when I was being educated at Ivy League universities, btw). And, I absolutely love Trump. He is the ONLY "politician" NOT in someone's pocket, and he loves this country. He is the only one who could possibly get this place back on track. But, as a pessimist, I feel the country is too far gone thanks to crazy (and hateful) liberal politics.

5/30/23, 12:16 PM

This could be me...but 10 years later!! ^^^^

wendybar said...

M said...
I'm very tired of the ignorance of people who believed the Russia collusion hoax and, in fact, anything the hateful lies that media continued to spew. If you couldn't think for yourself and see through the liberal hatred, you should sit down and keep quiet. Period.

5/30/23, 6:54 PM


100% Agree.

M said...

Thank you, @Jamie, for a very articulate and thorough explanation of all the crap democrats put this country through during the 2020 election. It's why I fear they will never let a republican win the presidency again, no matter who we run.

Aggie said...

Instead of putting all my chips and my emotional capital on whomever is the 'only candidate that can possibly win' (today), I'm reserving this for the candidate that is ultimately chosen, with my participation in the process. Then my 2024 Presidential vote will be for anything Republican, and for the down-ballet, anything that isn't progressive Democrat. I don't see a clear path to an improving situation though, not until more people are willing to become active, informed participants rather than 'news' consumers.