November 30, 2022

"The country sees tens of thousands of protests every year.... Most are local, aimed at issues like pollution.... China’s leaders are thought to tolerate a hum of protest..."

"... perhaps even welcome it within limits, so as to 'siphon off popular discontent without destabilizing the system as a whole'.... China’s leaders know that they cannot be totally indifferent to public will. But, without genuine elections, citizens have few ways to convey their points of anger. Tolerating some protest gives leaders a way to head off dissent, and to allow citizens to feel heard, before anger boils over. The official response is often 'much less rigid and more managerial than is often presumed'...."

 Writes Max Fisher, in "The Long Odds Facing China’s Protesters/Popular protests are more easily begun than ever before, but they are more likely to dissipate, too" (NYT).

"Why do some dictators fall to public protest and others don’t?... Since 1900... about 20 autocracies have risen out of sweeping social revolutions. These include the Soviet Union, Iran’s Islamic Republic and Communist-led China.... The Soviet Union made it to age 69.... Iran is also, for the moment, proving surprisingly resilient against a nationwide, monthslong protest movement.... It’s not that such systems govern better... Revolutionary movements typically uproot every aspect of the old order, from business leaders to officer corps to administrative bureaucracies. As the revolution fills these out with its own, it is left with few internal rivals or threats.... And revolutionary features that lend resilience... are especially pronounced in China: A deeply institutionalized party bureaucracy. Internally enforced hierarchies of power. Pervasive political control of security and military forces. Deep party roots in everything from business boardrooms to local village affairs...."

28 comments:

gilbar said...

leaders know that they cannot be totally indifferent to public will. But, without genuine elections, citizens have few ways to convey their points of anger.

this seems Dangerously True, for the US as well.

Enigma said...

China has had basically the same governance system for close to 5,000 years. Call it a kingdom, empire, or communism, but it's basically a high-density internally cooperative and collaborative tribal system.

If they had a revolution, the same system would return in no time. The attitude in China, Japan, and Korea can sometimes be (as actually told to me): "Why fight the government because they'll be replaced by others who are basically the same. It's a waste of time to fight."

wendybar said...

Until they put the protesters in a gulag like the DC gulag.

gilbar said...

When Was the last time, that China had a government that could be considered not autocratic?

wendybar said...

Until they put the protesters in a gulag like the DC gulag.

Dave Begley said...

The Chinese people need guns. We had guns. We defeated the Brits.

I expect a brutal crackdown. Biden, the Dems, Tom Friedman, Apple, Wall Street and the NBA will applaud.

Leland said...

"Why do some dictators fall to public protest and others don’t?

The successful ones execute dissidents.

allow citizens to feel heard

Once

Bob Boyd said...

revolutionary features that lend resilience... are especially pronounced in China: A deeply institutionalized party bureaucracy. Internally enforced hierarchies of power. Pervasive political control of security and military forces. Deep party roots in everything from business boardrooms to local village affairs....

I would add, US trade policy and US companies making sure the Party has plenty of money.
US tech companies helping the Party build a vast surveillance, propaganda and social control apparatus.

mikee said...

Not enough rope?

Howard said...

It was balls cajones brass guts and backbone that defeated the British, Dave. You Elmer Fudds in the Obesity Army of the deplorable States of America with M-4's and a pile of ammo are soft targets.

Bob Boyd said...

Thanks to western tech, the CCP doesn't have to crush the protestors with tanks. They'll just track them down via their phones and facial recognition and those determined to be instigators will simply disappear.

Achilles said...

Dave Begley said...

The Chinese people need guns. We had guns. We defeated the Brits.

I expect a brutal crackdown. Biden, the Dems, Tom Friedman, Apple, Wall Street and the NBA will applaud.


Why did you leave out Mitch McConnell and the GOPe corporate donors?

Achilles said...

"Why do some dictators fall to public protest and others don’t?"

It depends on who you protest against.

Ghandi would be a long forgotten corpse in a Chinese cell. But 1900's British citizens were decent people.

If you look at how the J6 protesters are being treated you know what kind of people the DC regime are too.

Bob Boyd said...

State security in China has already begun calling protestors on their phones to let them know, we know who you are and where you are and we'll be paying you a visit. I'm sure it's terrifying.
There's nowhere to hide. The Chinese government has a surveillance camera for every 7 people.

Compare and contrast:
https://www.wired.com/story/fbi-google-geofence-warrant-january-6/

What was Google's motto again? "Evil, be thou my good" or something like that?

Rusty said...

Well. They must not be open to this much protest because that ARE sending in tanks. When people feel that they have nothing else to lose the state loses power over them and the state must regain that power through force. Think killdozer guy.

Lloyd W. Robertson said...

Maybe it's the same old Chinese authoritarianism, maybe not. Even more than Russia, the "proletariat" revolution came when there was no such thing as a proletariat. By comparison the proletariat in actual capitalist countries has never been particularly radical--to the frustration of the Commies in our midst. The Chinese would rather have an effective government than no government--like Hobbes. By definition there is someone in government whose powers can't be checked in the short or even medium term. Change takes time. It is difficult to have free and fair elections because there will always be powerful people who don't like them; even if you have them, voters are likely to respond to one or two issues.

There is an implied deal that measurable progress will occur in material terms, commerce and science/tech. That's also in Hobbes, even more in Locke. The Tiananmen Square protests were led by people with some Western education, skewing toward tech; many of the leaders are now well ensconced in the regime, often in senior positions. I believe the animal markets flourish because Chinese people who are gaining a bit in prosperity pretty much demand a trade in animals for both food and medicine. With a billion people, they are obviously able to endanger species and change ecosystems, leaving aside whether the animals are generally treated humanely. But then, people who insist on humane treatment of animals don't necessarily have a great record when it comes to humane treatment of people. People and animals can both suffer from indifference; only humans are likely to attract hate.

Bob Boyd said...

@ Begley

Apple is doing more than applauding. They're actively helping the CCP repress the movement.

I bet those Americans at Apple who are helping to carry this out consider themselves part of "The Resistance" at home.

Achilles said...

Howard said...

It was balls cajones brass guts and backbone that defeated the British, Dave. You Elmer Fudds in the Obesity Army of the deplorable States of America with M-4's and a pile of ammo are soft targets.

Howard might be a fascist piece of shit, but he is right that we are generally too soft.

The problem for you Howard it that the longer you are allowed to pull the pendulum towards fascism the farther it is going to swing the other way. And the other way is not necessarily towards freedom generally.

Howard's internal homosexual/bdsm yearnings aside there are hard men out there in this country.

Trump is soft and fluffy and probably somewhat pudgy compared to who/what comes next. Unless Desantis stops being a corporate GOPe retread it certainly wont be him.

gilbar said...

as Lloyd W. Robertson said...
the "proletariat" revolution came when there was no such thing as a proletariat

The proletariat is the social class of wage-earners, those members of a society whose only possession of significant economic value is their labour power. Which is to say: The Working Poor

Across the world (time and space), the Working Poor have NEVER been interested in Marx's bull.
The ONLY people that buy in are:
Stupid College Sophomores (of whatever age)
and
the NON-working poor ie: bums and/or illegal aliens

So, what has the Marxist Party in the US (sorry! i meant the democrat party) done?
EVERYTHING in their power to:
eliminate our working poor, by moving industry and extraction jobs overseas
Drastically increase the number of Stupid College Sophomores (of whatever age)
Drastically increase the number of the NON-working poor ie: bums and/or illegal aliens

Think i'm making this up?
Think for a bit about history then Think about the Marxist Party in the US (sorry! i meant the democrat party)

Joe Smith said...

Fuck all commies, foreign and especially domestic.

The dream of the left in the U.S. is to become China.

Total social and governmental control...

Michael K said...


Blogger Howard said...

It was balls cajones brass guts and backbone that defeated the British, Dave. You Elmer Fudds in the Obesity Army of the deplorable States of America with M-4's and a pile of ammo are soft targets.


Howard has great confidence in the "Woke" military that the Biden regime is creating. "White Supremacy" will be suppressed along with all those southern boys that won World War II. Howard remembers his glory days when he was a white supremacist in the military, Those days are quickly vanishing into the history that is being suppressed in our education of children.

Howard is always ridiculing the "deplorables" but what kind of shape is the "Gen Z generation" with their smart phones and video games ? The Democrats like Howard rely on the Black Lives Matter soldiers to fight their battles and burn down black business. What happens when your black army turns on you ?

wendybar said...

Bob Boyd said...
State security in China has already begun calling protestors on their phones to let them know, we know who you are and where you are and we'll be paying you a visit. I'm sure it's terrifying.
There's nowhere to hide. The Chinese government has a surveillance camera for every 7 people.

Compare and contrast:
https://www.wired.com/story/fbi-google-geofence-warrant-january-6/

What was Google's motto again? "Evil, be thou my good" or something like that?

11/30/22, 7:58 AM

THIS^^ Joe Bidens Government is just like China.

wendybar said...

Joe Smith said...
Fuck all commies, foreign and especially domestic.

The dream of the left in the U.S. is to become China.

Total social and governmental control...

11/30/22, 9:26 AM

And with the DC gulag, we aren't any better than China.

Michael K said...

Howard has great confidence in the "Woke" military that the Biden regime is creating.

Austin Bay does not. Here is his opinion.

Gen-Z cohort members were born from the late 1990s to roughly 2010. Why are they reluctant to enlist? From the Stars and Stripes: "They want community. They want purpose. They want what they're doing to matter," Wormuth told the Center for a New American Security, a Washington, D.C., "left-leaning" think tank.

And, of course, defending a country you hate doesn't matter. That's why enlistment is down 25% below quota. And it will get worse.

Michelle Dulak Thomson said...

So China is now "authoritarian," rather than "totalitarian"? It seems to me that they've built a totalitarian state such as even Stalin merely dreamt of, b/c he merely surveilled the "important people," whereas Xi surveils everyone. Is there a more totalitarian concept than the "Social Credit Score"? Well, not for now; but give the CCP a year or two and there will be.

Josephbleau said...

"What was Google's motto again? "Evil, be thou my good" or something like that?"

Yes but Google is the greatest and most brilliant Machine Learning company in the world. Google colab gives that to everyone for free!. They are smart and generous. Resnet and inception net v3 are the bomb vsv CNN design.

You can call them the enemy of all that is good, but they are the greatest most magnificent of all, in ML. And they help poor students by giving them free computing resources.

So, the technical comp sci services of google are great. Do they spend money for power? Who knows. Google has a knack for assembling at the academico/operational boundary.

Josephbleau said...

If a sufficient number of people deserve freedom, they can get it. To model, say Freedom == ((Number of people who want freedom)/2 + (number of people who deserve freedom)^3).

Tina Trent said...

Dissipate? Is that like disappear?

The Chinese government is the revolution. Jacobins and ANTIFAs and BLMers and grade school teachers and the FBI are jealous as all get out.