About Wisconsin, Cohn says: "The state was ground zero for survey error in 2020, when pre-election polls proved to be too good to be true for Mr. Biden. In the end, the polls overestimated Mr. Biden by about eight percentage points. Eerily enough, [Mandela] Barnes is faring better than expected by a similar margin."Most pollsters haven’t made significant methodological changes since the last election.... The pattern of Democratic strength isn’t the only sign that the polls might still be off in similar ways....
September 12, 2022
The NYT's Nate Cohn pushes Democrats to worry about "the possibility that the apparent Democratic strength in Wisconsin and elsewhere is a mirage — an artifact of persistent and unaddressed biases in survey research."
I'm reading "Yes, the Polling Warning Signs Are Flashing Again/Democrats are polling well in exactly the places where surveys missed most in 2020."
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I am not a pollster nor a mathematician, but when I look at almost all polls, the heavily oversample democrat voters.
I've see D +8 percent on many occasions.
I can see how this would be useful if the pollsters are left-leaning and are trying to demoralize R voters and depress their votes.
But it destroys their credibility when they are inevitably wrong.
What am I missing?
but, But, BUT! dead democrats in Milwaukee will STILL be able to vote 3 or 4 times; right?
Yep like the sun rising in the east, this is routine. Even in Sweden yesterday, the liberals were polling ahead yet lost to conservatives bigly. The "polling" industry shares too many traits with the "fact-check" industry, all of them negative.
"Mandela" Barnes is the perfect Democrat candidate. Just like Gillum was in Florida.
Paging Rich Baris and Robert Cahaly: please pick up your polling prizes at the Courtesy Counter.
Following Jan 6, does anyone think that those sympathetic to Trump are willing to tell the truth or cooperate with (perceived leftist) survey firms?
The Trump crowd was deeply skeptical of government way back in 2016.
Of course. The pollsters are counting the extra ballots already prepared and ready to harvest. They are going to attempt to put the fix in again in November. I do not think they are going to like the results.
I just don't understand why anyone who isn't already planning to vote D would tell pollsters anything besides, "I'm going to vote D." If you're undecided or independent, why, given how R voters are uniformly portrayed in the national media, entertainment, academia, etc., as stupid and/or evil, and, vice versa, how D voters are portrayed as being enlightened and compassionate and so very smart, why wouldn't you claim a share in that stolen valor? And if you're a conservative, why not do your part to spoil the poll AND not expose yourself?
It affects fundraising, I'm sure. But the only way a pollster would get any true information out of me is if they were to pose as being on my side. And since I see that as a possibility, I just don't take polls, no matter whom they say they're with.
I'm sure they make adjustments for liars and the unresponsive. But are those adjustments accurate? The quoted portion suggests that they're not.
Enigma, "NO!" No we don't.
The Republicans always, inexplicably, outperform polls, but Democrats still win the elections decided by <1%.
Wisconsin's votes for the Democrat candidate
2008 -- Obama -- 1.7 million
2012 -- Obama -- 1.6 million
2016 -- Clinton -- 1.4 million
2020 -- Biden -- 1.6 million
==============================
The USA's votes for the Democrat candidate
2008 -- Obama -- 69.5 million
2012 -- Obama -- 65.9 million
2016 -- Clinton -- 65.8 million
2020 -- Biden -- 81.3 million
==============================
That last number seems rather odd.
"[Mandela] Barnes is faring better than expected by a similar margin"
That plus the margin of fraud should suffice.
Not long before the 2016 presidential election, I told some of my (very liberal) coworkers that Donald Trump was close to even, or even slightly ahead, in some mainstream polls. They all laughed and said I must have been taken in by fake Republican pollsters who were cooking the books, and that all the "real" polls were guaranteeing a Clinton win. I realized then that people will believe what they want to believe, no matter what the research say.
Trump won WI in 2016, and won WI in 2020. The absentee fraud, ballot harvesting, Zuckerbucks, and illegal drop boxes were all made possible by COVID. That effort started in April 2020 with the WI 2020 Spring election when we were told Wisconsinites were risking their lives to vote in person. That was the set up.
All of it was blessed by and incompetent and corrupt Wisconsin Election Commission. They see to think the make the laws.
Perhaps (hopefully) the strength of COVID fear is now a bit less. Also, the corrupt counties (Dane, Milwaukee, Racine, Kenosha, Brown/Green Bay) may not have such and easy time pulling mathematically impossible absentee quantities out of their asses.
Plus, rising crime in Milwaukee and the surrounding Milwaukee County suburbs is out of hand. Inflation is painfully real. I don't think Kenosha will forget that Tony Evers let their town burn on purpose. Mandela Barnes is a defund the police idiot, and doesn't like to pay his own taxes.
There is hope, but not much. I can't imagine the five WI Counties listed above aren't going to try a repeat of what they successfully pulled off in 2020.
Blogger gilbar said...
but, But, BUT! dead democrats in Milwaukee will STILL be able to vote 3 or 4 times; right?
What they do is figure out who in what precinct didn't yet turn in an absentee ballot. Then they either go harvest that ballot, or fill it out for the "voter". That's how you get precincts in Milwaukee with 95% "turnout" and 100% Democrat "votes".
Then, Milwaukee purposefully confuses the situation by having only one central absentee counting location for ALL absentee ballots. The precincts don't count them. This creates 1) a purposeful delay in reporting and 2) puts all absentee counting in one central location making it easier count fraudulent and illegally harvested ballots.
The centralized control of absentee ballot counting in Milwaukee is done under the guise of efficiency, when in reality it is to centralize the fraud and nullify the votes of red counties with lesser population, and much larger percentage of people who vote in person.
It's not hard to see....
As usual, Cohn misses the point.
The 8-point inflation in polling is there so Dems can later claim the election was "stolen" when they lose.
They will point to it as clear evidence of voter suppression.
Joe Smith: "I am not a pollster nor a mathematician, but when I look at almost all polls, the heavily oversample democrat voters."
This is a common misconception.
Oversampling within subgroups is perfectly fine, if not altogether cost efficient.
It's overrepresenting groups/subgroups that is where polling malpractice mostly occurs.
So? Democrats have had two years to perfect the art of stealing elections. They have opposed election integrity measures in courts and legislatures at every opportunity. The have used DOJ/FBI criminals to persecute and intimidate those who might expose and/or protest Democrat election fraud. The leftmediaswine are their cheerleaders and accomplices.
Polls are just theater and in states like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, et al, filled with compliant Democrats, nothing will be done to jeopardize election fraud.
2022 will tell us if elections are just theater by now.
Republicans almost all hang up or screen calls. They should answer and play along, see what they can find out. But no, the noncooperation is visceral. Like hanging up is sending a message. Then bitch they were never consulted
So as a result I get to speak for the whole GOP here. Sometimes I tell the truth, sometimes I don't.
I contain multitudes!
We have to jigger the poles to match what we are going to put into the Diebold machines. Uv course Republicans are underrepresented. We're treating GOP voter 3/5 and their is constitutional original intent of the founding fathers to back it up.
Joe Smith said... I've see D +8 percent on many occasions. … What am I missing
You’re missing weighting. Oversampling is no sin. But you must weight the sample to what the voting % will look like. You could oversample Dems 2 to 1 but as long as you then reduced the value of each oversampled voter by the correct proportion, you’re fine. The place where bias is buried is not in the sample which is published but the weighting algorithm which is not.
Another point of view is that this is advertising driven. Media in general makes out bigtime in election years. In some cases, it is where most of their profits are made.
So how much of this poll is real and how much is fake in an attempt to stimulate advertising?
If the race is not close, the leader doesn't need to advertise much and the loser won't waste their money.
If the race could go either way, both sides will spend money like crazy.
John stop fascism vote republican Henry
The big question is who is most motivated to vote — pro-abortion women or fed-up middle-class men. I’ve sen one poll that says it’s fed-up men by a large margin, and they are expected to vote Republican overwhelmingly. However that was a national poll and not broken out by state.
Mike Sylwester said...
That last number seems rather odd.
Quite. The last Presidential election with turnout over 65%?
Answer - 1908, before women were allowed to vote in Federal elections.
uhm Howard, read some history. You have no clue about the 3/5th provision. None. In fact its a racist comment. Overtly racist. Buy a vowel, get a clue.
That won't be a problem with the advent of mail in ballot harvesting.
2016 -- Clinton -- 65.8 million
2020 -- Biden -- 81.3 million
Nothing to see there... 🤐
I'm sure Inga is on every pollster's rollodex.
Diversity [dogma] (i.e. color judgment, class-based bigotry). While bias is a normal attribute of humanity, prejudice (e.g. rabid) is the product of a progressive condition.
There is this recurring theme where the polls show the Republican candidate losing by a significant margin, then either winning or being very close to winning. (Virginia had this happen multiple times in their governor races.) Why this is the case is unclear, but none of the explanations are good.
The less conspiratorial explanation is the pollsters are not good at their jobs, perhaps out of general incompetence and perhaps because the polling environment has changed and they have adapted poorly. That said, if the environment has changed, they should have figured that out by now.
The more conspiratorial explanation is the polls are being used as a political tool. Make it seem like the disfavored candidate has no chance, have the campaign money dry up, demoralize the candidate's voters, and then have the candidate lose by a margin that more money and more voters would have made a huge difference. Of course, the polls just before the election will tighten up to closer approach reality, when it is too late to do anything about it. True, some races will tighten up significantly as election day approaches and the undecideds finally choose. That said, it is not believable to have pollsters state they are doing a good job because those last minute, too late to do anything polls are reasonably accurate, and then accept that the polls they were touting for months are also accurate when they seem to have nothing in common. I mean it may be possible that it is typical for the Republican to lose big early and then make a late run, but it also could be manufactured. Never trust coincidences.
Either way, why should I trust them?
Polls are working exactly as they're designed to. They're showing massive Democrat Party strength for the excellent job they've been doing uniting the country and running our economy like a bullet train.
The chocolate ration has also been increased to 10 grams a week from 15.
Pollsters have one job to do and it's not getting Democrats elected. They have vote-counters and ballot-box stuffers who perform that task. The pollster's job is to make it look good.
Polls are working exactly as they're designed to. They're showing massive Democrat Party strength for the excellent job they've been doing uniting the country and running our economy like a bullet train.
The chocolate ration has also been increased to 10 grams a week from 15.
Pollsters have one job to do and it's not getting Democrats elected. They have vote-counters and ballot-box stuffers who perform that task. The pollster's job is to make it look good.
Joe Smith asked: "I've see D +8 percent (oversampling) on many occasions. What am I missing?"
You're not missing anything. The only way the polls can show ANY real support for Democrats or Democrat policies is to fake it.
This is how they fake it.
The real question you have to ask yourself is why the media in an allegedly free country allows them to do this without question. Is your country actually free? This is exactly how the media in oppressed countries report things for the "ruling party." Countries like Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
America is no longer a free country. You are no longer a free person. Try to protest your country at the Capital and see what happens to you buddy. Your ass will be in a DC gulag faster than you can fucking blink, pal.
Stop thinking America is the land of the free, bro. That's an old pipe dream.
Joe Smith asked: "I've see D +8 percent (oversampling) on many occasions. What am I missing?"
You're not missing anything. The only way the polls can show ANY real support for Democrats or Democrat policies is to fake it.
This is how they fake it.
The real question you have to ask yourself is why the media in an allegedly free country allows them to do this without question. Is your country actually free? This is exactly how the media in oppressed countries report things for the "ruling party." Countries like Iraq and Saudi Arabia.
America is no longer a free country. You are no longer a free person. Try to protest your country at the Capital and see what happens to you buddy. Your ass will be in a DC gulag faster than you can fucking blink, pal.
Stop thinking America is the land of the free, bro. That's an old pipe dream.
of course, NONE of this matters
I've had it explained to me, that ALL americans DEMAND abortion access up to (and PAST!) labor.
Because of This, NO reThuglican will receive a single vote.
I mean, it's TRUE isn't it? Isn't Abortion, the Be All and End ALL of all politics for all people?
I haven't been lied to, have i?
Howard: "We're treating GOP voter 3/5 and their is constitutional original intent of the founding fathers to back it up."
LOL
We now have to add the 3/5's compromise to the seemingly endless, near infinite, list of things Howard doesn't remotely understand.
Color me shocked.
Nate Silver builds a math model that predicts what will happen ASSUMING ALL THE POLLS ARE REASONABLY ACCURATE. Then, when the model fails--as it often does--he claims it was the fault of bad polling.
This is roughly the equivalent of a Wall Street IPO (like Peloton) that sells a billion shares at top dollar (based on a model that shows it will be wildly profitable) and then goes bankrupt.
What does it really mean for Silver to say that as of today, the odds of the Republicans taking the Senate are 30%? If the polls are wrong, the model is wrong.
I’m not worried. What happens, happens and we shall see who wins. If the loser is a Republican we will hear how there was massive voter fraud, wash, rinse, repeat. It does stand to reason however that many WI women are not happy with Republican’s retrogressive laws regarding abortion. Listen to what Michels says about exceptions for rape or incest-none. And their stance on same sex marriage (Michels again) and dummy Ron Johnson’s ideas about social security, I’d say that there are a good number of WI Republicans who will vote for Democrats this November.
ALL americans DEMAND abortion access up to (and PAST!) labor.
Human rites performed for social, redistributive, clinical, political, and fair weather causes, are imperative to sustainable social progress: one step forward, two steps backward. Keep women affordable, available, and taxable, and the "burdens" of evidence sequestered in darkness.
That said, women, men, and "our Posterity" are from Earth. Feminists are from Venus. Masculinists are from Mars. Social progressives are from Uranus.
Inga puked: "WI women are not happy with Republican’s retrogressive laws regarding abortion."
In Wisconsin, you can have an abortion up to 5.5 months of your pregnancy (this is way past when the child has a heartbeat, is fully developed in the womb, and could live just fine if they were born at that time). You must receive counseling about it, then wait 24 hours to give yourself a chance to think it over.
Yep Inga, that's some real repressive laws you got there concerning the murder of a child.
Wisconsin men need to quit fucking you goddamned ghouls.
“If the loser is a Republican we will hear how there was massive voter fraud, wash, rinse, repeat.”
If the loser is a Democrat, the Democrats will see their hopes and plans float away, down river.
And they will lose their shit.
"I’d say that there are a good number of WI Republicans who will vote for Democrats this November."
Indeed, I'm sure they'll "vote" several times for Democrats.
"I’d say that there are a good number of WI Republicans who will vote for Democrats this November."
Indeed, I'm sure they'll "vote" several times for Democrats.
"I’d say that there are a good number of WI Republicans who will vote for Democrats this November."
Indeed, I'm sure they'll "vote" several times for Democrats.
My grandparents were Wisconsin farmers and small store owners (about 45 miles north of Madison).
They were life long Republicans. Since they died 40 years ago, they have always voted Democrat.
"All comments must be approved by the blog author."
Yeah, some of them three times!
"In Wisconsin, you can have an abortion up to 5.5 months of your pregnancy"
Incorrect. There are zero abortion clinics operating in Wisconsin after the Supreme Court ruling as WI had a law from the 1850s on the books outlawing it.
Google is not difficult to use, you should try it.
Indeed, I’m sure RMc will post his comment several more times for good measure.
And Buckwheathikes just shat in Aisle 9…
We now have to add the 3/5's compromise to the seemingly endless, near infinite, list of things Howard doesn't remotely understand.
Howard, and Inga, believe that Republicans should be treated like slaves, just as Democrats did in the good old days. Then Abe came along and ruined their fun.
Lose your ethical religion, progressive liberals. Divest from diversity [dogma]. #HateLovesAbortion
Mandela, huh. This has Xhosa hunting Zulu hunting Xhosa tribal conflict threatening the viability of nation and people written all over it.
It depends a bit on the way the way the polling question is asked. “Do you support the [said loudly] President of the United States [said quietly] and his [whispered] political party, [normal voice] or are you [voice dripping with hatred and contempt] one of those election denier, misogynistic, baby-raping Republican [shouted] LOSER?”
That might skew the polling results.
Michael K said...
"We now have to add the 3/5's compromise to the seemingly endless, near infinite, list of things Howard doesn't remotely understand.
Howard, and Inga, believe that Republicans should be treated like slaves, just as Democrats did in the good old days. Then Abe came along and ruined their fun."
You have to remember. We're not dealing with the two sharpest knives in the drawer. They voted for Biden. They really believe 81 million people voted for Biden. So whenever they comment take that into account.
Remember way back to the recall election when all the recall petitions were being passed around? I made a bold statement that since progressives and their operatives were passing around the petitions that ten percent of the signatures would be fraudulent. I'm not claiming pr4ecience here. They're progressives. Cheating is what they do, dependably. It turns out it was closer to 20%. Losers got to cheat. That's why they're losers.
Michael K said...
"We now have to add the 3/5's compromise to the seemingly endless, near infinite, list of things Howard doesn't remotely understand.
Howard, and Inga, believe that Republicans should be treated like slaves, just as Democrats did in the good old days. Then Abe came along and ruined their fun."
You have to remember. We're not dealing with the two sharpest knives in the drawer. They voted for Biden. They really believe 81 million people voted for Biden. So whenever they comment take that into account.
Remember way back to the recall election when all the recall petitions were being passed around? I made a bold statement that since progressives and their operatives were passing around the petitions that ten percent of the signatures would be fraudulent. I'm not claiming pr4ecience here. They're progressives. Cheating is what they do, dependably. It turns out it was closer to 20%. Losers got to cheat. That's why they're losers.
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