September 28, 2022

"Hurricane Ian is on the cusp of Category 5 strength with maximum sustained winds of almost 155 mph..."

"... ahead of an expected Wednesday afternoon landfall. The National Hurricane Center warned that 'catastrophic storm surge, winds, and flooding' are imminent in the Florida Peninsula — the center said in its noon advisory that the ring of destructive winds, or eyewall, around Ian’s calm center is moving onshore at Sanibel and Captiva Islands in Southwest Florida. More than 300,000 customers are without power midday Wednesday as conditions continue to deteriorate.... 'This is going to be a nasty, nasty day,' Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said in a news conference early Wednesday. In neighborhoods from Tampa to Key West, locals were seeing water at their doorsteps — some making last minute efforts to evacuate...."

WaPo reports.

71 comments:

Gusty Winds (Elon Musk Fanboy) said...

In 2022 Florida somehow manages to attract the eye of real and metaphorical hurricanes.

California is extremely jealous... all they hear all day long at is how great Florida is at this or how wonderful Florida did that, Florida, Florida, Florida!

rhhardin said...

Everybody who wants the hurricane to make Category 5 strength clap. It's a Tinkerbelle situation.

n.n said...

National Data Buoy Center

Hurricane Ian (AL092022)
Advisory #24A
12 hr Forecast
Valid at: 8:00 PM EDT September 28, 2022
Location: 27.3 N, -82.1 W
Maximum Wind: 105 knots (120 mph)
Wind Gusts: 130 knots (150 mph)

Hunter Biden's tax payer funded Hooker said...

Democrats must be thrilled.

Destruction is something they love to capitalize on.

Howard said...

My TDS libtard pinko commie wife was very impressed by Ronda Santis' press conference.

Butkus51 said...

The narrative will be that it is "science deniers" fault generally and DeSantis fault specifically.

The woman/man thing is a headscratcher and the science isnt settled.

I died, and this is all a nightmare.

Its the only logical explanation.

I think I'm in purgatory. (They were right about that).
.


JAORE said...

My brother informed me the storm would be low intensity absent Global Warming.

A few years ago GW was gar-en-teed to cause more frequent hurricanes. But the numbers have actually gone down. Now the high priests have determined the rapid strengthening is due to GW (praise be his name).

Florida is likely in for a pounding. I'm glad the Post seems to be just focusing on that.

Daniel12 said...

Buckwheat, you did not go directly to the source, you went to another source (which is probably showing some sort of average wind speed over time. If you go actually directly to the source, here's the National Hurricane Center, which is part of NOAA, in their Ian alert just now:

3:10 PM EDT Wed Sep 28
Location: 26.7°N 82.2°W
Moving: NNE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 940 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Ian

Must everything be some sort of media conspiracy theory?

madAsHell said...

This hurricane is NOWHERE NEAR THE CUSP of a Category 5 hurricane. Or a 4. Or a 3. Or even a 2.

Notice it's on the cusp of a 5. The cat 5 comes with a 155mph winds. They are conflating facts.

I remember when they used to report wind chill factor as well. Sometimes I think reading the newspaper is for people searching for misery.

Mike Sylwester said...

I live in South Hackensack, New Jersey, and I lived through Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

Where I lived, there was little wind or rain. I even remember the weather as being "peaceful".

However, the storm pushed a lot of water up the New Jersey rivers, including the Hackensack River, which runs less than a mile away from our home. The river flooding knocked out practically all of the electricity cables. (In New Jersey the electricity and flood-control systems are relatively old.)

So, practically nobody in a very large region had any electricity for about a week. (Only people and buildings with private generators had electricity.)

Because there was no electricity, practically none of the gas stations could pump gasoline. This was a big problem all over New Jersey.

Throughout that entire week, the weather remained quite mild in my area. We always could stroll around outside comfortably.

Fortunately, my work building had a private generator. Therefore I was able to go to my office and use my computer there to sent e-mails to my family to tell about our situation.

n.n said...

Hurricane Hunter AF307

Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces
Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed

1000mb -241m (-791 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level.

973mb (28.74 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 24.6°C (76°F) 240° (from the WSW) 78 knots (90 mph)

925mb 446m (1,463 ft) 23.4°C (74.1°F) 19.6°C (67°F) 260° (from the W) 108 knots (124 mph)

850mb 1,183m (3,881 ft) 20.4°C (68.7°F) 17.0°C (63°F) 265° (from the W) 96 knots (110 mph)


700mb 2,845m (9,334 ft) Unavailable Unavailable 250° (from the WSW) 105 knots (121 mph)


Reported 16 minutes ago near Ft Meyers.

Gusty Winds (Elon Musk Fanboy) said...

n.n said...
Wind Gusts: 130 knots (150 mph)

Mine average about 170.

n.n said...

cusp (n.)

1580s, in astrology, "first entrance of a house in the calculation of a nativity," from Latin cuspis "point, spear, pointed end, head," which is of unknown origin. Astronomical sense is from 1670s, "point or horn of a crescent." Anatomical sense of "a prominence on the crown of a tooth" is from 1839.


A penumbra, inferred from an emanation.

Jupiter said...

I guess a hurricane is a big deal. I know people who had their homes destroyed by hurricanes. But at the same time, I am thinking, "Look. You live in a place where they have hurricanes. Where you live, "Shit happens" includes hurricanes. So, why does everyone have to get in a tizzy every time one blows through? Get your fucking ducks in a row. Put your house up on stilts, or build a ferrocrete dome, or move. How often do you expect the rest of us to get excited about your damned hurricanes? They're like streetcars, another one every fifteen minutes.

TreeJoe said...

Where are you commenters get information that the core hurricane - hitting florida right now - is below 100mph wind speed when it made landfall? According to NOAA right now:

4:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28
Location: 26.8°N 82.1°W
Moving: NNE at 9 mph
Min pressure: 942 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

It continues to sustain wind speeds 45mph faster as it's now right off the coast of florida but making landfall.

It always disturbs me when commenters here throw out junk information as absolute claims.

Mason G said...

Clearly, it's due to climate change. Do you even have to ask?

Robert Cook said...

"The owner of the Washington Post is literally the world's richest person. He has no need of money."

There is no amount of money such that these high-level millionaires and billionaires can or will decide they have enough and they will cease their rapacious behavior. In short: Too much is not enough.

(This is part of the Republican theology: "If we tax obscenely wealthy people at higher tax rates than for citizens of more modest means the wealthy will lose all incentive to work hard and keep making all their billions and trillions of dollars." Like all theologies, it is make-believe.)

tommyesq said...

California is extremely jealous... all they hear all day long at is how great Florida is at this or how wonderful Florida did that, Florida, Florida, Florida!

Plus California could really use that rainfall.

Gusty Winds (Elon Musk Fanboy) said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Elizabeth Camden said...

Buckwheathikes: About the Ventusky model..... I notice that the default for wind speed is at 10 meters above the ground. You can move that to 100 or 250 or more. At those heights, the wind speed is MUCH higher. I don't know at what height the official measurements for assigning a category are.

I'm sitting here in Orlando watching my palm trees bend. Its strong.

Big Mike said...

It must be odiferous around Democrats as they piss themselves with delight at the devastation and loss of life a Cat 5 hurricane can inflict on Florida. Whatever happens, they will blame it on DeSantis. They’ve already said so!

Jupiter said...

"Sustained Winds are boring and no fun at parties."

Sailors greatly prefer sustained winds. Especially catamaran sailors. Gusts are what sneaks up and capsizes your boat.

BUMBLE BEE said...

Look around you at the tree heights. Tells the story.

Yancey Ward said...

I don't know what is done today, but hurricane wind speed used to be measured well off the ground by planes that fly into the eye wall (they may do the measurements today with satellite footage, which of course measures the speeds of the clouds at the top of the storm). I don't remember where I learned it, but I do remember reading that the wind speeds are higher, the further from the ground you get. So, it is entirely possible that a hurricane with a labeled 150 mph sustained winds only produces winds of 100 mph at the surface. The surface is a drag on wind speed, and the power source, the heat of condensing water vapor and the subsequent warming of the air occurs well off the ground- 100s of meters up.

All in all, I would not be shocked to find exaggeration going on with hurricane wind speeds, both those at the ground level and those further up. Wherever "Climate Change" politics intrudes, the credibility of the practitioners declines.

BUMBLE BEE said...

Remember people... It is Captivating FREE DRAMA. Like the Computer Millenial change... give wide berth.

Yancey Ward said...

Having written that, 100 mph winds over a few hours will destroy any wood-framed home.

Hunter Biden's tax payer funded Hooker said...

Cook - In CO - most tax payers and fee payers are hefting 68% tax rate. You leftists never consider adding it all up -> income tax, property tax, gas tax, sales tax, (...) + never ending fees.

Amadeus 48 said...

Weather porn.

rhhardin said...

It seems like Ft Myers should have spent an hour or so in the eye, blue skies and calm winds. I have seen no reports of it though.

DanTheMan said...

In the interest of keeping the peace, can we all agree in advance that Ron DeSantis completely and totally botched the response to Hurricane Ian, and that millions of Floridians died because of his heartless and uncaring nature?

Michael said...

Robert Cook
In Re Billionaires. If we confiscated the wealth of all US billionaires, all of their wealth, and redistributed to the population we would each get around 20 grand. And that, dear boy, would be that. This is leaving them with nothing. No watches, no Guccis, no boats, planes, cars, homes, faction homes, helicopters. Nothing. And that, dear boy, would be that.

n.n said...

hitting florida right now - is below 100mph wind speed when it made landfall

By surface buoys and aircraft monitoring at different levels. The wind speed varies with altitude, the lowest (around 70 mph) near the surface, and the highest (above 120 mph) around 1/5 mile up.

Check "Hurricane Hunter AF307" for real-time data. Check "National Data Buoy Center" for additional points of reference.

n.n said...

adding it all up -> income tax, property tax, gas tax, sales tax, (...) + never ending fees.

Progressive taxation schemes with select subsidies for em-pathetic appeal and to hide, at least until recently, climactic price fluctuations forced by single/central/monopolistic solutions and collateral damage from coups with borders, sanctions with "benefits".

n.n said...

Ron DeSantis completely and totally botched the response to Hurricane Ian, and that millions of Floridians died because of his heartless and uncaring nature

I second the motion and would like to up the ante with thousands of profitable baby parts in reproductive care clinics.

Marcus Bressler said...

Just 30 minutes ago, on Mike's Weather Page on Facebook, he was outside, facing the wind, and almost got blown over. I don't know how to measure that. I lost a house to Francis and Jean; dealt with Irma and several more. They are not fun, especially if you lose power for a week or more. I don't evacuate .. you might get stuck in interstate traffic, run out of gas and/or the storm might follow you. I'm on the east coast and it's not bad at all. But I live in a 1964 poured concrete condo that has withstood all the storms since David in 79. I am in a flood-prone mandatory evacuation zone, but I'll take my chances. I have propane chef's stove, lots of battery-powered lights and plenty of appropriate foodstuffs. With Irma, before the condo put in hurricane windows, I spent hours attaching plywood to many of my neighbor's windows. Apparently I was the only one with the tools to do so and am the youngest at this 55 and older condo. And, no, I don't expect anyone to rescue me in the event of storm surge; I'll move to the upstairs condo whose owner has always left me a set of keys.

MarcusB THEOLDMAN

Clyde said...

My power went out at 2:00 pm. It’s been extremely windy for the past four hours or so. 🙁

Yancey Ward said...

DantheMan wrote:

"In the interest of keeping the peace, can we all agree in advance that Ron DeSantis completely and totally botched the response to Hurricane Ian, and that millions of Floridians died because of his heartless and uncaring nature?"

Agreed. Watching Florida break off and sink into the ocean makes me wish for Governor Gillum even though he was a dope fiend.

West TX Intermediate Crude said...

There's a very nice clip of DeSantis shutting down a lefty reporter who claimed that the FEMA boss stated that "Florida" has had a lax approach to storm preparation.
What the FEMA lady actually said was that some "Floridians" had not experienced a major storm before, and may have a lax approach...
DeSantis didn't even let the lefty reporter finish the question, hit back with Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa, give me a break. That is nonsense. Stop politicizing, OK? Stop it.

Nice.

https://tinyurl.com/nka3r778

Michael K said...

This is part of the Republican theology: "If we tax obscenely wealthy people at higher tax rates than for citizens of more modest means the wealthy will lose all incentive to work hard and keep making all their billions and trillions of dollars." Like all theologies, it is make-believe.)

Cook has the same misunderstanding about wealth that most lefts have. He thinks rich people have strong room full of gold, like in the fairy tales. Most of them who have earned their money are invested in multiple companies. Inherited wealth, like the Walton and Disney heiresses, has a usual leftist trend. Of course none give it all away to worthy charities. Rich kids used to choose professions that allowed them to give back. I've known a couple. Steve Allen's son was my intern at one time.

The idle rich these days are mostly on the left for cultural reasons. The GOP is and has been for years, the party of small business.

Buckwheathikes said...

I did notice how all of my comments, but not the replies to my comments, have been deleted.

Isn't that weird?

Buckwheathikes said...

I did notice how all of my comments, but not the replies to my comments, have been deleted.

Isn't that weird?

wendybar said...

Mike Sylwester said...
I live in South Hackensack, New Jersey, and I lived through Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Where I lived, there was little wind or rain. I even remember the weather as being "peaceful".

I live 5 miles from Point Pleasant Beach, where the eye hit...and we had no power for 2 weeks...and could NOT even drive around because of the powerlines and trees down everywhere. Grocery stores down here had no food, water or anything else for over a week. Luckily for my little neighborhood, we took care of each other. There were neighborhood cookouts so the food in our refrigerators and freezers wouldn't go to waste. It was 10 years ago...at the end of October. Halloween was cancelled that year. Living near the beach, I am what you would call a prepper. I ALWAYS have extra water and food on hand. I have packed my car numerous times for evacuations that never came. Even had a litter box and kitty litter!!

Drago said...

Robert Cook: "(This is part of the Republican theology: "If we tax obscenely wealthy people at higher tax rates than for citizens of more modest means the wealthy will lose all incentive to work hard and keep making all their billions and trillions of dollars." Like all theologies, it is make-believe.)"

This is, of course, another lie. Quelle surprise from a marxist! Who did not see that coming.

Now for some reality: it is absolutely true that for any income level, and Cookie always pretends that those darn middle class kulaks aren't the real targets for his bolshie buddies, if you have significant increases in tax rates at any level, then wage earners who fall just below that higher tax rate level are absolutely disinclined to work harder for that extra income since it will usually result in a net decrease in take home pay.

Duh.

This is obvious to rational people grounded in common sense and insight into basic human nature. And that group of people necessarily excludes marxist dummies who don't believe "real" communism has been tried anywhere in the world in human history.

SAGOLDIE said...

Q: What do you mean it's on the "cusp" of being a "Cat 5?" You mean it's a "Cat 4," right?

A: Well, no. It's more than a "4" . . . it's almost a "5."

Q: Hmmmm. So it's almost a "5?" That means it's not a "5?" So it's actually a "4," right?

A: I guess . . . darn it!

TeaBagHag said...

Democrats must be thrilled.

Destruction is something they love to capitalize on.

Bwahahahaha, competent response to natural disaster is offensive to “drown federal government like a don’t tread on me baby.” types.

RMc said...

Florida break off and sink into the ocean

Didn't Bugs Bunny do that in a cartoon once? (Actually, he cut Florida loose with a hacksaw. "South America, take it away!")

RMc said...

Florida break off and sink into the ocean

Didn't Bugs Bunny do that in a cartoon once? (Actually, he cut Florida loose with a hacksaw. "South America, take it away!")

Marc in Eugene said...

My sister-in-law texted (from Cape Coral, at 1221 her time) that they were, then, "at the edge of the eye". She didn't seem much comforted by the thought of the eye's approaching calm, although they managed the storm to that point with very little damage.

Drago said...

Have the lefties started accusing DeSantis of actually creating the hurricane and directing towards brown people yet?

That was 2/3rds of the democratical Katrina playbook.

The other 1/3 was claiming Bush blew up the levees.

iowan2 said...

I'm interested.
Not enough to listen/watch/read, 24/7 the exact same 'different perspective' some talking head has come up with.

Prayers for all the millions affected. Hopefully the death is minimal. The destruction on the other hand, sounds like it is going to be, overwhelming.

farmgirl said...

Hang in there, Clyde!!

MadisonMan said...

The winds in NHC Discussions/Warnings/etc are surface winds (generally 1.5 m above the surface, if I recall correctly). You will often see discussion of wind speeds at higher levels. For example, in this one (link) you'll note flight-level winds of 160 knots are reported, but SFMR winds of 135 knots (SFMR: Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer -- I think -- a kind of radar (link). Those are winds inferred from microwave emissions at the surface.

PM said...

Best luck, Marcus.

The Godfather said...

We lived in FLL for 5-6 years and went through several hurricanes -- and a LOT of "hurricane scares". Frankly, the scares were more of a problem than the actual hurricanes, because you had to prepare for each one as though it might hit you. When an actual storm hit us, the biggest problem was loss of electricity. It seems the city fathers of FLL thought it made sense to use above-ground electric lines, rather than bury them, so we were out of power for up to 10 days after a hurricane hit. No AC, no light, etc. Only one hurricane did enough physical damage to our house to support an insurance claim in excess of our deductible. We lived about 2 miles from the ocean. Water front folks had a different experience.

Hunter Biden's tax payer funded Hooker said...

A patriot! spotted!

Gospace said...

Power went out on the east side of FL in the Grant area a few minutes ago. Just received a text from my son there.

DINKY DAU 45 said...

"'One of the wettest we've ever seen, from the standpoint of water' pass me the paper towels will ya! :)

Maynard said...

The other 1/3 was claiming Bush blew up the levees.

I watched the Congressional hearings on Katrina where Cong. William Jefferson (now in prison) listened respectfully to a woman making it clear that she saw and heard demolition charges that were placed on the levees because Bush wanted to kill Black people.

The craziness is not new. We are just starting to pay attention to it.

POC will suffer under Ian because DeSantis just wanted to kill them.

Owen said...

A good read is Niall Ferguson’s “Doom: The Politics or Catastrophe.” He wrote it in mid-2020 with a main emphasis on The Virus, and reading it today with hindsight it is interesting to see what he got wrong and right. But apart from his “journal of a plague year,” he supplies a lot of history on ruinous events of all kinds, from really killer plagues like the Black Death and the Great Influenza of 1918-20, to Chernobyl and the Challenger. He’s digging into the psychology and sociology of these events: how and why people screw up and cause them (or fail to prevent or mitigate them), how and why they assign blame for them. Especially for politicians, it is important to be able to assign blame.

DRP said...

Sitting here in South Brevard county as the eye is passing to the north of us. We've had gusts into the 70's, and power was only out for an hour. Power is back. Just a bit of wind and rain picking up.

Closest storm I can compare this to is Charley in '04. But Ian is less compact than Charley was. And Charley passed well west of us here n the east coast.

I suspect the results will be the same. Fort Myers on the Gulf side is likely trashed. But, I don't think damage is going to be anything like Andrew was in '92. Or Frances and Jean in '04 where I was without power for almost three weeks.

My wife is a Nurse and works near Orlando. She says power is out in most of Kissimmee, Except for the hospital.

FPL has literally hundreds of power trucks staged at The Villages, ready to fan out and restore power, and they've been proactively replacing old power poles for about 7 months now.

I thank God that we have DeSantis as governor right now instead of Gillum.

iowan2 said...

Now the aftermath. Evaluation of damage. Shock, denial, negotiation, acceptance.

No electricity.

I spend lots time driving the interior areas of Iowa. A new landscape Item is permanent standby generators. LP powered. They are tucked away and camouflaged. But I'm spotting more and more every month. I've been planning my own for a year or so. Saving money.figuring out the siting. I heat with LP, so its simple to run a line from the tank to the generator.

Says something about our infrastructure when people no longer trust the experts to do their job.

Temujin said...

Man...we got lucky here in Sarasota. A lot of damage, trees down, many lost power, but nowhere near the devastation south of us. I feel awful for what so many people are facing today here in Florida. It's going to take months to get this cleaned up and rebuilt.

And the storm is still cranking. We still have tropical storm winds here. Across the state they are getting hit hard as I write this. Then up the coast to Georgia and the Carolinas.

My only hope is that it has enough to dump on Washington DC.

Oh well...better get to work on clean up.

Big Mike said...

I listened to DeSantis’s press conference just now. He seems to be on top of things, not that this will stop Democrats from kvetching and trying to score political points off the disaster.

Robert Cook said...

"In Re Billionaires. If we confiscated the wealth of all US billionaires, all of their wealth, and redistributed to the population we would each get around 20 grand. And that, dear boy, would be that. This is leaving them with nothing. No watches, no Guccis, no boats, planes, cars, homes, faction homes, helicopters. Nothing. And that, dear boy, would be that."

Well, thank you for an analysis of a scenario I didn't posit. Increasing the tax rates for wealthier citizens is not tantamount to confiscating their wealth.

wendybar said...

I haven't heard from my bestie in Cape Coral yet. Praying she evacuated.

Unknown said...

Michael @ 5:00pm,

Even your careful analysis overstates the amount to be gathered:

1. How much of that wealth is represented by unrealized stock and real-estate gains?

2. What would happen to those values if the government started taking all of them? You can't even burn valueless stock certificates to keep warm these days, it's all just digital ledgers. So the only way to get the "wealth" from someone who own, say $500 million in Amazon stock is to get others to pay real money for them.

My careful SWAG says that the amount obtained would be more like 10% to 20% of what you posited.

Unknown said...

Cookie,

Michael's scenario is designed to show the absolute upper limit available. I'm not surprised you're so innumerate that you can't understand that.

Marc in Eugene said...

My sister-in-law texted from Cape Coral earlier that they are without water due to a city main being broken somehow but otherwise are safe and comparatively well. They never thought of evacuating, so far as I can tell.

Rusty said...

Unknown said...
Michael @ 5:00pm,

Even your careful analysis overstates the amount to be gathered:

1. How much of that wealth is represented by unrealized stock and real-estate gains?

2. What would happen to those values if the government started taking all of them? You can't even burn valueless stock certificates to keep warm these days, it's all just digital ledgers. So the only way to get the "wealth" from someone who own, say $500 million in Amazon stock is to get others to pay real money for them.

My careful SWAG says that the amount obtained would be more like 10% to 20% of what you posited.

Where does "wealth" come from? How does stock accrue "value"? Would Amazon still exist if there never was a Bezos?

Mikey NTH said...

Dad-in Bradenton-evacuated to Sebring. He's fine and has been told the condo building is undamaged. In the next day or two he'll be going back.

Marcus Bressler said...

Power lines are not buried in FL, as in most states, due to the cost. Utility rates have to be approved by the state and therefore there is little incentive to do so. But the main reason is that most of Florida has a very low water table. Cynics will argue "but they can be insulated"; even if no storm is dumping massive water onto the ground, the ground is unstable due to the water table -- not like inland states. This makes not only repairing lines difficult but installing them initially cost prohibitive. Even when the put in new storm and sanitary sewers here, there are days of isolating the trenches and pumping the water out 24/7. It is not a cure all. Fixing downed lines and power poles (mostly the old wooden ones) can be done quickly.

MarcusB THEOLDMAN

It seems as if the death toll from Ian may make it the worst hurricane ever (in modern times) to hit the state (if early reports hold up). I believe the 1928 one killed hundreds if not thousands of people.